Not saying Cooks won't do well. But let's not dubiously dub Payton a wide receiver Nostradamus.
Amen. They are TERRIBLE at drafting WR's. Like New England bad. Loomis became GM in 2002. So 12 drafts resulting in 10 WR's:
2003 - Kareem Kelly - 6th round - bust
2003 - Talman Gardner - 7th round - bust
2004 - Devery Henderson - 2nd round - decent career but bust for value
2005 - Chase Lyman - 5th - bust
2006 - Mike Hass - 6th - bust
2006 - Marques Colston - 7th - steal
2007 - Robert Meachem - 1st - decent career but bust for value
2008 - Adrian Arrington - 7th - bust
2012 - Nick Toon - 4th - TBD
2013 - Stills - 5th - TBD, but trending up
For one thing, no one has mentioned the Saints' leading receiver and one of the best draft finds of any team in the league over the last 15 years - Jimmy Graham. Yes, a TE, but as we all know he plays more at WR than TE.
For another, Mickey Loomis did take over in 2002, but during his tenure he has had Mike McCarthy as OC (2000-04) and Sean Payton as HC (2006-). Loomis has done great things for the team's scouting department and overall analysis, but I really wonder what kind of authority or voice he had over these guys when picking WRs and TEs, especially Payton.
For another, this could be looked at as premium picks, 1st round to 3rd, when a team might be expected to do get a player of some value, and then after, 4th-7th, which might be more speculative. As we all know, that's where real "value" is found and where teams win leagues of all kinds.
1st - 3rd;
2002 (1.13) - Stallworth - as someone said above, a couple good early years but nowhere near the production for where he was picked - 11 year NFL career, 321/4837/35
2004 (2.50) - Devery Henderson - "decent career but bust for value"
2007 (1.27) - Robert Meachem - "decent career but bust for value"
2010 (3.95) - Jimmy Graham - one of the best steals of any draft
4th-7th:
2002 (6.196) - John Gilmore (TE) - 10 year NFL career w/ CHI & TB
2003 (6.203) - Kareem Kelly - bust
2003 (7.231) - Talman Gardner - bust
2005 (7.237) - Chase Lyman - bust
2006 (6.171) - Mike Hass - bust
2006 (7.252) - Marques Colston - steal
2008 (7.237) - Adrian Arrington - bust
2012 (4.122) - Nick Toon - TBD
2013 (5.144) - Stills - 5th - TBD, but trending up - Hit
The guys in italics, Payton wasn't around for the drafting.
Also, compare the totals for hit rates by round from
this thread ("defining a "hit" as 50+ career VBD"):
rd 1 WR (46%)
rd 2 WR (22%)
rd 3 WR (14%)
rd 3 TE (8%)
rd 4 WR (8%)
rd 5 WR (2%)
rd 6 WR (0%)
rd 7 WR (0.4%)
Guys like Henderson and Meachem, while, yes, I agree with your description "decent career but bust for value" probably saw maximized value with Payton than they would have seen anywhere else. A prime example is Meachem, who goes off via FA signing with SD.... and proceeds to do nothing, then comes back to NO and boom within maybe 2 weeks of returning is back to catching a 40 yard TD bomb in the Dome. Henderson had 2 years of nothing, then Payton shows up and had a good deal of value to the team and
led the league in yards per reception in 2 of the next 3 years. Both played important roles in a championship season. In terms of FF one or both were occasionally on the WR3 bye week radar from (2006-11). What's clear is that Payton got way more out of them than I would guess any other team could have.
Also, about Meachem let's remember the Saints real target that year was Dwayne Bowe, but it was the Chiefs who traded in front of the Saints to snipe him that year. 2007 was a really weak WR class, besides Bowe and way after Calvin (1.2), Meachem was better than Ted Ginn (1.09!), Craig Davis (1.30), Anthony Gonzalez (1.32), Dwayne Jarrett (2.45), and Steve Smith (NYG, 2.51). The only guy the Saints really should have maybe taken over Meachem at WR was Sid Rice (2.44). This year it was the Saints who learned from that experience and traded up to snipe Cooks away from the Chiefs, Panthers, Eagles and who knows who else.
Looking at this holistically the Loomis era 1st through 3rd is not bad. Under Payton one long term team value player (with occasional WR3 value) plus one absolute steal and a certified All-Pro is pretty darn good.
For the 4th through 7th rounds, you can't say anything much about the pre-Payton Loomis era. Under Payton though, hitting on the team's all time leading receiver is no small thing. He has produced more than any WR or TE in the 40+ years of Saints football, Colston, that is one hell of a pick. - Stills is another example of a guy who was absolutely maximized with the Saints, he finished 4th in receiving yards and 3rd in receiving TDs among rookie WRs, he had one drop in 51 targets (that's a 50/51 catch rate), led the league in ypc, played on 61.3% of all snaps, and "The NFL's best QB rating when throwing to a single wide receiver last season was Drew Brees to Kenny Stills (139.3)." [RW]. I'd say that's a hit already. - Arrington was a disappointment (he did get hurt quite a bit), and Hass fizzled, but let's also remember UDFA Lance Moore who was quite a find and real contributor, and like Meachem and Henderon was sometimes in the FF WR2-3 range. Altogether I'd say a steal, a hit plus two misses in rounds 4 through 7, plus a starter as an UDFA, is an excellent clip for any team, and maybe better than almost any other team.
Finally, let's keep in mind Sproles and Moore are now gone. You've got a fast track in the Dome, opportunity, and a HC who maximizes receivers' value, and a QB who has hit 5K+ yards three years in a row. Cooks and Stills should do great this year.
Having said all that, I think the biggest factor for both will be that Payton & Co. might be wanting to dial down Brees' passing totals and balance in the run more, plus with that rising defense, if they end up with 4300-4800 yards passing, instead of the 5100-5500 they've been getting, it would not surprise me.