I'm saying based on what the market says FA WRs cost, Kupp is a good value at 15. I also am very much of the belief that Kupp is still a high quality #2 WR.
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WR Cooper Kupp, SEA (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Penguin
- Start date
I’m not very critical of paying Kupp $15m for a year. It's rich but nothing to get worked up about. I'd hate the idea of committing myself of my team to be on the hook to paying him this in 2026 however. Details I don't know yet without seeing the contract breakdown.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m deeply skeptical that it’s 15 x 3.
Probably team options, performance metrics, opt outs, etc.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yep. It's all about what the guarantee is and what the options and bonuses are like.
Willie Mays Hayes
Footballguy
When you consider he received money that is in the Courtland Sutton/Justin Jeudy range, it's not a bad deal for both sides. Kupp being "washed" is overblown IMO. He was on a trajectory in 2022 to be a Top 5 WR before his season ended early due to injury. In 2023, he came out of the gates hot and then Nakua emerged and took over a large percentage of the target volume also while injury derailed Kupp's season. Kupp was also having a decent start to 2024 before injury and then got faded out of the offense late last season. It was a bizarre ending since McVay went out of his way to feed Puka Nakua and Kyren Williams exclusively down the stretch.
Seattle represents a perfect landing spot for Kupp. Darnold is a smart QB and is the type that will nerd out with Kupp on schemes. I like the fit!
Seattle represents a perfect landing spot for Kupp. Darnold is a smart QB and is the type that will nerd out with Kupp on schemes. I like the fit!
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Seems to be a lot of implied buts..,after each of those three years. How many buts….does he have left?
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The two contracts I've been most waiting to see the breakdown on are Metcalfs and Kupps. Before both signed we got reports that DK wanted $30M and Kupp wanted $15m and voila! Both hit exactly that. Does it mean they got it or the contracts were structured to look like so the agent could crow and the player could save face. Probably for the agent and player to safe face. I have not seen on report yet which has shown any guarantees for either off those deals. My first reaction to both contracts is I'd not have handed them out, but can't really know that until more details are known. But generally when the agent is not leaking out the guarantees it's not nearly as great as it looks.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Likely just the 1.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
implied buts after each year
MAC_32
Footballguy
Well put, I don't understand their macro strategy. At all.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Kupp is a looooooooooongggg way off from what he was in 2021. Harmon recently started dropping profiles from the 2024 season and Kupp was one of them:
2022 - success vs man - 70.6%
- success vs zone - 87.3%
2023 - man - 65.2%
- zone - 83.3%
2024 - man - 50.5%
- zone - 76.2% (lands him in the 30th percentile)
.... you stack that with downgrading from Stafford/McVay to Darnold/Kubiak and I don't know how people don't see him as regressing already; let alone taking another step backwards this upcoming year. He was never a burner, but now he's almost completely scheme dependent with his inability to separate and does little to add to the play after making the catch. He has great hands and can still occasionally find a soft spot in the zone (and again I'll say running plays schemed by McVay and being targeted by Stafford).
Hope I'm wrong as Kupp is a great story and by all accounts seems like a great guy. His triple crown season was amazing to watch happen in real time and something that I'll never forget. But man, I think anyone who doesn't think the cliff is real has blinders on. IMO he already fell off, we are just guessing at how quickly he makes it to the bottom. If you are buying/drafting him as a WR4 who will only ever sniff your starting lineup as a flex play, sure. But anything more than that seems like fools gold to me. I've asked around in my leagues just to get some real world feedback and owners are still asking for a 2nd round rookie pick + to even start the discussion; that seems wild to me. If he misses extended time again this season like he did the past 3, I'd bet a good amount he doesn't even finish top 50 at the position.
counter argument is he wasn't fully healthy last year, stud wr's usually don't fall off a cliff, obv. not what he was but I think he's got a decent season or possibly two left.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I like that his stock is so low that he will fall far in the draft and actually become decent value if he's your WR4 as some are saying
Counter argument 2: the drop off in success rate is because he's not been the primary receiver they've been scheming open
But counter to the counters is the Rams tossed him aside in a way that was almost shocking in the cold manner they did it in light of how important he's been to the the organization and McVay and then turned right around and almost poured salt in his wound by giving his exact amount of money they'd have paid him this year to another old WR. I get that Davante address the man coverage issues better and it makes sense, but it's still harsh in the overall view. McVay knows ball better then I ever will. Neither he nor the Rams are perfect and make mistakes but they are not making this move without seeing the same things Harmon is seeing.
Still, while I'm sure not paying a second for him in dynasty, I've found myself unable to quit him in redraft. I've taken him 3 of my 5 drafts so far this year. It's a range in the drafts that's what I consider no mans land, dead zone, whatever. Round 8-9 area. The RB's available are the one's I worry the NFL draft will sink them but the top 6 rookie RB's are gone and I don't feel comfortable in redraft going that high on unknown roles for the others. QB no mans land, where the top studs are gone and if you take on here you are leading off the non-top stud group. TE not much different(these are TEP drafts) where you are in the TE10+ range. At this point you are in the WR 40'ish range and this range I've been drawn to him. I'm ok with it right now, not exuberant or fretting, but don't want to end up with him on remotely close to 60% of my teams, would rather shrink that number down to 20-30%.
I know he's super off the charts motivated. Even with him and JSN having similar skill sets, and JSN being almost assuredly better at this point, the number 3+ options are rather poor and there should be enough possession work available I still think he has an element of upside. But I view him right now as a WR3, which is about what I'm paying.
That's a fair assessment and where I'm at more or less, still a bit of a mystery what happened to him at the end of the season in LA, but feel like good chance he's going to end up on my teams as his ADP has dropped too far imo.
This is where I'm at too. I'd probably prefer Kupp at WR45 than JSN at WR15.
