WR Cooper Kupp, SEA (6 Viewers)

[BIRDGANG52]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

 

[Manster]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think people are missing that Kupp is likely to be more of a negative influence on Puka than the other way around. Ignoring that Kupp likely wasn't 100% when he came back last year, here were the numbers for these two when they played together:

Puka - 12th in fantasy ppg (1 ppr), 8.5 targets per game
Kupp - 25th in fantasy ppg, 7.9 targets per game

Puka the first 5 weeks when Kupp didn't play: 3rd in fantasy ppg, 12.6 targets per game

IMO, if both guys are healthy, the target share should be close to even. I get that some people are scared off that Kupp is 31, but Adams and Allen were both 31 and ranked in the Top 10 last season. I also disagree with the premise that Kupp missing time is an automatic zero. Kupp averages more ppg than other receivers, so Kupp's production + scoring of a next man up on your roster / replacement WR for a few games will still net a decent amount of total points. For example, if a team used Jakobi Meyers to fill in when Kupp was out last year: Kupp 164.4 + Meyers 71.5 (who also missed a game in that stretch) = 235.9 points (which would have an equivalent rank of WR16 . . . plus another player would have been used to score for a week). Kupp has an ADP of WR29 this preseason. I'd take what I just described all the time.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 in NFL history have ever gone for over 1,200 yards. He's hanging off the same cliff every other WR in NFL history has faced, if he's not already over it. For these older guys, it's usually not at talent thing but a health thing.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

 

[efactor]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Yeah, that's just plain stupid. Kupp is healthy and has a strong connection with Stafford. For Puka to be going that far ahead of him is insane.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Yeah, that's just plain stupid. Kupp is healthy and has a strong connection with Stafford. For Puka to be going that far ahead of him is insane.

Puka Nacua is 23 years old and caught 105 passes last year as a rookie and is expected to be more involved.
Cooper Kupp is 31 years old and caught 134 passes in the last two seasons combined.


Every time Cooper is on the bench, Puka scores more points by default. I believe that's why he's ranked so much higher. Those goose eggs will kill you. I'll take the guy who gives me 105 catches in a season versus a guy who's going to give me 67 catches and 7.5 goose eggs.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

I’m aware that players get injured. I’m also aware that they get hurt more when they’re older.

In this case he suffered a soft tissue injury in camp.

Two years before that he had almost 2000 yards and one of the greatest WR fantasy football seasons on record.

And again, he did not suffer any injury this year in camp. He’s reportedly 100% - which is all you need to see of any player.

Yes - Kupp got hurt. You’re not sharing any revelation here for people who haven’t drafted yet. We are all well aware of his age & injury history.

But as I and others have said, that’s the risk one takes for that upside. And now it’s a late 2nd/early 3rd, so the risk is even mitigated slightly to where he becomes a value pick.

No one here has guaranteed his health. projecting that we’re ignoring any health concerns comes off as trolling.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

I’m aware that players get injured. I’m also aware that they get hurt more when they’re older.

In this case he suffered a soft tissue injury in camp.

Two years before that he had almost 2000 yards and one of the greatest WR fantasy football seasons on record.

And again, he did not suffer any injury this year in camp. He’s reportedly 100% - which is all you need to see if any player.

Yes - Kupp got hurt. You’re not sharing any revelation here for people who haven’t drafted yet. We are all well aware of his age & injury history.

But as I and others have said, that’s the risk one takes for that upside. And now it’s a late 2nd/early 3rd, so the risk is even mitigated slightly to where he becomes a value pick.

No one here has guaranteed his health. projecting that we’re ignoring any health concerns comes off as trolling.

Bro, I'm just stating facts. It's not that big a deal, if you want to tie your wagon to a 31 year old Wide Receiver who's missed 15 games the last two-years, that's fine. But don't get upset at me for pointing out that only 15 players in NFL history at age 31 have gone over 1,200 yards and if he doesn't do that this year, he's going to be vastly overdrafted.

And most of those guys who went over that number, didn't miss 15 games the last two seasons. Nothing to get upset about, I'm just giving you statistics, you can ignore them if you want and pound the drum that he's going to suddenly become the 16th age 31 WR to go for over 1,200 yards, even though he COULDN'T do it in his Age 29 or Age 30 season.


That's your decision. Facts vs feelings. I can't argue how you feel about something. I'm going to drop it, not my hill to die on. I hope you have a special day. Happy Friday!

 

[kyoun1e]

Feel like it needs to be mentioned that the current LAR WR hurt right now is actually Puka.

He's already broken the injury seal.

 

[Anarchy99]

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-season, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31.

I don't know you, and I don't want to come off as a jerk. As a fantasy owner, I care more about a player's relative value. You discussed that this could potentially be Kupp's last season as a WR1. His ADP is WR29. By definition, those are the types of players you should be targeting, not labeling will-not-draft. All the risk and associated issues you have described about Kupp are baked into his cost / draft stock / discounted acquisition price. Similarly, if Kupp plays consistently, IMO, there isn't a good path for Puka to earn back his WR8 draft position. So on my draft board, Puka is the one with the will-not-draft label. I think he will have a negative ROI (as his increased scoring was temporary and situational). If you don't get a good vibe, then don't draft him. I would likely counter that other WRs available at the same point in the draft won't have the value or the upside, but there's no shortage of players to draft and plenty of other options available.

We could debate whether any player is more of an injury risk than any other . . . all guys are at risk of getting hurt on any play, and it's the severity of the injury that is pretty random. One guy gets a bone bruise and misses a game, another guy gets hit in the same spot and tears a meniscus. One guy gets a minor hamstring pull, another guy blows out his Achilles. As Bill Belichick used to say, tell me beforehand the play when a guy is going to get injured, and I will sit him out on that play.

I've been playing fantasy for decades and researched injuries quite a bit (for this very website). Yes, older players are more prone to get minor injuries, but I did not see any conclusive evidence that older players suffered a higher rate of major, season-ending injuries. Also, some players have had serious injuries that largely didn't matter for fantasy, as they happened at the end of a season instead of the start of the season. Bottom line, every player is an injury risk, and there's not a whole lot you can do about it. The one time I ever drafted Tom Brady, he tore his ACL in Week 1. Injuries happen, and all you can do is deal with them.

 

[Chaka]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Yeah, that's just plain stupid. Kupp is healthy and has a strong connection with Stafford. For Puka to be going that far ahead of him is insane.

Puka Nacua is 23 years old and caught 105 passes last year as a rookie and is expected to be more involved.
Cooper Kupp is 31 years old and caught 134 passes in the last two seasons combined.


Every time Cooper is on the bench, Puka scores more points by default. I believe that's why he's ranked so much higher. Those goose eggs will kill you. I'll take the guy who gives me 105 catches in a season versus a guy who's going to give me 67 catches and 7.5 goose eggs.

All true.

Then again, Puka is the one coming off a recent knee injury that kept him out for several weeks.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-season, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31.

I don't know you, and I don't want to come off as a jerk. As a fantasy owner, I care more about a player's relative value. You discussed that this could potentially be Kupp's last season as a WR1. His ADP is WR29. By definition, those are the types of players you should be targeting, not labeling will-not-draft. All the risk and associated issues you have described about Kupp are baked into his cost / draft stock / discounted acquisition price. Similarly, if Kupp plays consistently, IMO, there isn't a good path for Puka to earn back his WR8 draft position. So on my draft board, Puka is the one with the will-not-draft label. I think he will have a negative ROI (as his increased scoring was temporary and situational). If you don't get a good vibe, then don't draft him. I would likely counter that other WRs available at the same point in the draft won't have the value or the upside, but there's no shortage of players to draft and plenty of other options available.

We could debate whether any player is more of an injury risk than any other . . . all guys are at risk of getting hurt on any play, and it's the severity of the injury that is pretty random. One guy gets a bone bruise and misses a game, another guy gets hit in the same spot and tears a meniscus. One guy gets a minor hamstring pull, another guy blows out his Achilles. As Bill Belichick used to say, tell me beforehand the play when a guy is going to get injured, and I will sit him out on that play.

I've been playing fantasy for decades and researched injuries quite a bit (for this very website). Yes, older players are more prone to get minor injuries, but I did not see any conclusive evidence that older players suffered a higher rate of major, season-ending injuries. Also, some players have had serious injuries that largely didn't matter for fantasy, as they happened at the end of a season instead of the start of the season. Bottom line, every player is an injury risk, and there's not a whole lot you can do about it. The one time I ever drafted Tom Brady, he tore his ACL in Week 1. Injuries happen, and all you can do is deal with them.

At this point, the season starts in 6 days, I'd rather just let the play on the field speak for itself. I posted an article above about WR/RB injury that supports my point (because I don't just post how I feel, I always support with facts). I'll post it again, it's a good read:

"Wide receivers are overwhelmingly healthy from the time they enter the league to their age 27 season. Nearly 80% of receivers 27 and younger missed two games or fewer. However, the numbers begin to decline around the age 28 season and extended absences become much more likely."


WR ages 21-24 → 79.5% missed 2 games or fewer

• Missed 3-4 games: 6.8%
• 5+ games: 13.7%
• Average games missed: 1.9

WRs 25-27 → 76.7% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 13.7%
• 5+ games: 9.6%
• Average games missed: 1.8

WRs 28-30 → 68.8% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 10.9%
• 5+ games: 20.3%
• Average games missed: 2.1

WRs 31+ → 63.2% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 15.8%
• 5+ games: 21%
• Average games missed: 2.9

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

 

[Anarchy99]

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-season, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31.

I don't know you, and I don't want to come off as a jerk. As a fantasy owner, I care more about a player's relative value. You discussed that this could potentially be Kupp's last season as a WR1. His ADP is WR29. By definition, those are the types of players you should be targeting, not labeling will-not-draft. All the risk and associated issues you have described about Kupp are baked into his cost / draft stock / discounted acquisition price. Similarly, if Kupp plays consistently, IMO, there isn't a good path for Puka to earn back his WR8 draft position. So on my draft board, Puka is the one with the will-not-draft label. I think he will have a negative ROI (as his increased scoring was temporary and situational). If you don't get a good vibe, then don't draft him. I would likely counter that other WRs available at the same point in the draft won't have the value or the upside, but there's no shortage of players to draft and plenty of other options available.

We could debate whether any player is more of an injury risk than any other . . . all guys are at risk of getting hurt on any play, and it's the severity of the injury that is pretty random. One guy gets a bone bruise and misses a game, another guy gets hit in the same spot and tears a meniscus. One guy gets a minor hamstring pull, another guy blows out his Achilles. As Bill Belichick used to say, tell me beforehand the play when a guy is going to get injured, and I will sit him out on that play.

I've been playing fantasy for decades and researched injuries quite a bit (for this very website). Yes, older players are more prone to get minor injuries, but I did not see any conclusive evidence that older players suffered a higher rate of major, season-ending injuries. Also, some players have had serious injuries that largely didn't matter for fantasy, as they happened at the end of a season instead of the start of the season. Bottom line, every player is an injury risk, and there's not a whole lot you can do about it. The one time I ever drafted Tom Brady, he tore his ACL in Week 1. Injuries happen, and all you can do is deal with them.

At this point, the season starts in 6 days, I'd rather just let the play on the field speak for itself. I posted an article above about WR/RB injury that supports my point (because I don't just post how I feel, I always support with facts). I'll post it again, it's a good read:

"Wide receivers are overwhelmingly healthy from the time they enter the league to their age 27 season. Nearly 80% of receivers 27 and younger missed two games or fewer. However, the numbers begin to decline around the age 28 season and extended absences become much more likely."


WR ages 21-24 → 79.5% missed 2 games or fewer

• Missed 3-4 games: 6.8%
• 5+ games: 13.7%
• Average games missed: 1.9

WRs 25-27 → 76.7% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 13.7%
• 5+ games: 9.6%
• Average games missed: 1.8

WRs 28-30 → 68.8% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 10.9%
• 5+ games: 20.3%
• Average games missed: 2.1

WRs 31+ → 63.2% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 15.8%
• 5+ games: 21%
• Average games missed: 2.9

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

Appreciate the link, but injuries, severity, and timing are all still random. A guy suffering an ACL tear in the final week of the season will miss 0 games, while a player suffering the same injury the last week of training camp will miss every game.

My point above was that even if older players may miss time, it’s also possible that their relative fantasy value compared to where they were drafted was still very high. Lots of people understand that older guys won’t produce as a #1 fantasy option or could miss time and therefore won’t draft those players. But I would be happy to draft a guy as a WR5 that puts up WR2/3 numbers in the 14 games he plays. That’s still a lot of positive value, even if he has no chance of being a Top 5 WR.

I do agree that at a certain point guys just can’t stay on the field. Odell, please say hi to the class. I don’t Kupp is at that point, but if he misses half the season this year, I’d be ready to question if he could stay on the field and he’d have to plummet in drafts next year for me to think about taking him.

 

[efactor]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

I’m aware that players get injured. I’m also aware that they get hurt more when they’re older.

In this case he suffered a soft tissue injury in camp.

Two years before that he had almost 2000 yards and one of the greatest WR fantasy football seasons on record.

And again, he did not suffer any injury this year in camp. He’s reportedly 100% - which is all you need to see if any player.

Yes - Kupp got hurt. You’re not sharing any revelation here for people who haven’t drafted yet. We are all well aware of his age & injury history.

But as I and others have said, that’s the risk one takes for that upside. And now it’s a late 2nd/early 3rd, so the risk is even mitigated slightly to where he becomes a value pick.

No one here has guaranteed his health. projecting that we’re ignoring any health concerns comes off as trolling.

Thanks. Wasn't going to waste my time responding to the "always right" guy but you pretty much said it all here

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

I’m aware that players get injured. I’m also aware that they get hurt more when they’re older.

In this case he suffered a soft tissue injury in camp.

Two years before that he had almost 2000 yards and one of the greatest WR fantasy football seasons on record.

And again, he did not suffer any injury this year in camp. He’s reportedly 100% - which is all you need to see if any player.

Yes - Kupp got hurt. You’re not sharing any revelation here for people who haven’t drafted yet. We are all well aware of his age & injury history.

But as I and others have said, that’s the risk one takes for that upside. And now it’s a late 2nd/early 3rd, so the risk is even mitigated slightly to where he becomes a value pick.

No one here has guaranteed his health. projecting that we’re ignoring any health concerns comes off as trolling.

Bro, I'm just stating facts. It's not that big a deal, if you want to tie your wagon to a 31 year old Wide Receiver who's missed 15 games the last two-years, that's fine. But don't get upset at me for pointing out that only 15 players in NFL history at age 31 have gone over 1,200 yards and if he doesn't do that this year, he's going to be vastly overdrafted.

And most of those guys who went over that number, didn't miss 15 games the last two seasons. Nothing to get upset about, I'm just giving you statistics, you can ignore them if you want and pound the drum that he's going to suddenly become the 16th age 31 WR to go for over 1,200 yards, even though he COULDN'T do it in his Age 29 or Age 30 season.


That's your decision. Facts vs feelings. I can't argue how you feel about something. I'm going to drop it, not my hill to die on. I hope you have a special day. Happy Friday!

Sorry, can you quote me saying I was “upset”?

You said it twice here. Unless I expressed that I’m “upset” that’s just troll crap, and you should stop doing it.

Putting you on ignore now.

 

[BlackCrowes]

reminds me of Rod Smith

 

[Anarchy99]

This situation is reminiscent of 2004 with Priest Holmes when he was 31. People were scared off by his age, his workload, and his injury history. I gladly drafted him whenever I could. Holmes put up 1079 YFS and 15 TD that season . . . in the first 8 games. He ended the year ranked as RB18 (meaning half his season was better than most other backs full seasons). But I didn't care that much, as I also had Larry Johnson, who put up 859 YFS and 11 TD the second half of the season. Was anyone actually "right" in this example? Naysayers said Holmes was a wasted pick. I was perfectly happy with my nearly 2000 YFS and 26 TD from my KC RB tandem. I advocated a similar strategy the following season: that it was worth drafting both of these backs to lock up the KC RBs (even investing two really high draft picks), as you were guaranteed a huge scoring advantage every week. I took a lot of heat for that strategy, but the two combined for 2750 YFS and 28 TD. Holmes got hurt again, but it was a similar outcome as the season before. Playing the KC starting RB was usually worth the combined total of two other starting fantasy RBs. Many times, an alternative strategy can lead to better fantasy scoring.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Feel like it needs to be mentioned that the current LAR WR hurt right now is actually Puka.

He's already broken the injury seal.

And had a history of college injuries, IIRC.

he got dinged up last year, too, but managed to play through it.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

This situation is reminiscent of 2004 with Priest Holmes when he was 31. People were scared off by his age, his workload, and his injury history. I gladly drafted him whenever I could. Holmes put up 1079 YFS and 15 TD that season . . . in the first 8 games. He ended the year ranked as RB18 (meaning half his season was better than most other backs full seasons). But I didn't care that much, as I also had Larry Johnson, who put up 859 YFS and 11 TD the second half of the season. Was anyone actually "right" in this example? Naysayers said Holmes was a wasted pick. I was perfectly happy with my nearly 2000 YFS and 26 TD from my KC RB tandem. I advocated a similar strategy the following season: that it was worth drafting both of these backs to lock up the KC RBs (even investing two really high draft picks), as you were guaranteed a huge scoring advantage every week. I took a lot of heat for that strategy, but the two combined for 2750 YFS and 28 TD. Holmes got hurt again, but it was a similar outcome as the season before. Playing the KC starting RB was usually worth the combined total of two other starting fantasy RBs. Many times, an alternative strategy can lead to better fantasy scoring.

I drafted Priest that year 1.02

I got Sniped on LJ by 1 pick in the 7th round. Priest was having such a good year that LJ did virtually nothing.

I had a deal in place for LJ for my WR3, but at the last second I got greedy and asked to get a lesser WR back along with him.

Cheesed off the LJ owner, and he pulled the offer. Priest got hurt the next game. My season was over. I learned something that year.

 

[lakerstan]

Nakua is typically there at the 1/2 turn. Kupp has been going in round 3. It would be insane to draft them both, right? RIGHT?

 

[Anarchy99]

While I am still a fan of Kupp, what I posted earlier contained misinformation. I listed Kupp's ADP as WR29 when his overall ADP is 29 (WR16), which leads to a different value calculation. I've poked around and seen Puka projected in the WR6-8 range. I still think that is too high for him (I don't think he will see the targets to rank that high). I've seen Kupp projected in the WR15-25 range, which makes sense if people think he will miss time (or take a backseat to Nacua). It's possible both guys rank in the WR10-15 range.

On a different site, I see Puka having an ADP of 14 overall and WR8, while Kupp is at 35 and WR16. I don't love Kupp at that spot, but I think he is more likely to earn his draft spot and a little more than Puka. As others have mentioned, Nacua is the one rehabbing an injury and Kupp the healthier one of the two at the moment. The other part of the equation is what role Demarcus Robinson will have. If he puts up fantasy WR50-60 numbers, that will reduce the production available to Nacua and Kupp. The last 6 weeks of the season, Robinson ranked as the #29 fantasy WR based on ppg. He might be a decent dart throw late in drafts (going undrafted in many drafts). I can also see him as just another guy (who did well for a month at the end of last year).

 

[nittanylion]

A healthy Kupp is going to get his. Nothing about his skill set has changed for the worse, he's 100% healthy and his chemistry with Stafford is undeniable.

All other things being equal, that pair has radar-lock on each other, and McVay is in on it, too. 100% trust between Coach/HandpickedVetQB/#1VetWR. While Nacua is nice developing story, he has not usurped a healthy Kupp as lead target in that offense, at least not yet.

Also, please don't forget that McVay runs, by far, the highest % of 3WR/'11' personnel packages in the NFL, and they also paid Colby Parkinson, who I feel is a better and more dynamic receiving TE than Higbee, a large sum of $ to onboard for 2024.

Demarcus Robinson and Parkinson are going to take a bite out of Puka's target share as well.

Kupp is creeping up into questionable ROI on ADP. Puka has lived in negtive ROI on ADP since Draft Season started. Parkinson is undraftable, IMHO, as he's only going to be an irritant to Kupp/Nacu Managers (I don't think the TE generally gets enough to be FF relevant, with what's targeted to the RB's and 3 solid WR in the McVay scheme).

DmRobinson is basically free. No matter where Kupp and Nacua fall on your personal ADP, DmRobinson is no-cost injury insurance for both, and probably a decent bye-week option as a WR 5, 6, 7, depending on how individual League lineup options/scoring affects one's Roster builds.

In Leagues with Drafts/Rosters big enough to carry 3QB, I'm trying like heck to wait and grab a mid-tier option, like, say, a Goff, and form a platoon along with both Stafford and Levis, who both cost next to nothing, and who both have massive upside, IMHO. Play the matchups.

Fairly certain the Rams D isn't anything worth writing home about, and if that's the case, this pass offense is going to generate some serious #'s. They're just going to be spread around a bit more than people think, IMHO.

 

[the spanker]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

I’m aware that players get injured. I’m also aware that they get hurt more when they’re older.

In this case he suffered a soft tissue injury in camp.

Two years before that he had almost 2000 yards and one of the greatest WR fantasy football seasons on record.

And again, he did not suffer any injury this year in camp. He’s reportedly 100% - which is all you need to see if any player.

Yes - Kupp got hurt. You’re not sharing any revelation here for people who haven’t drafted yet. We are all well aware of his age & injury history.

But as I and others have said, that’s the risk one takes for that upside. And now it’s a late 2nd/early 3rd, so the risk is even mitigated slightly to where he becomes a value pick.

No one here has guaranteed his health. projecting that we’re ignoring any health concerns comes off as trolling.

Bro, I'm just stating facts. It's not that big a deal, if you want to tie your wagon to a 31 year old Wide Receiver who's missed 15 games the last two-years, that's fine. But don't get upset at me for pointing out that only 15 players in NFL history at age 31 have gone over 1,200 yards and if he doesn't do that this year, he's going to be vastly overdrafted.

And most of those guys who went over that number, didn't miss 15 games the last two seasons. Nothing to get upset about, I'm just giving you statistics, you can ignore them if you want and pound the drum that he's going to suddenly become the 16th age 31 WR to go for over 1,200 yards, even though he COULDN'T do it in his Age 29 or Age 30 season.


That's your decision. Facts vs feelings. I can't argue how you feel about something. I'm going to drop it, not my hill to die on. I hope you have a special day. Happy Friday!

Appreciate your feedback to this thread. You provided statistical analysis to support your position based on historical factual evidence and change my outlook on Kupp.

That's why I love this forum!

 

[BassNBrew]

ESPN has him at #45 overall right now. Insane.

Best value IMO on the board.

Hoping to grab him in round 3 for my WR2. And I'll reach to do it.

Like someone mentioned above, he was WR #9 down the stretch last season. Also, he's got Puka to take coverage away from him. At this stage in his career, that's a good thing. Stafford loves Kupp, and will find him often.

What about the other 8 games he played? How'd he look in those? By my math at 11.275 PPG in those other 8 games, he was WR 44/45.

19.8, 27.8, 6.9, 6.1, 6.8, 2.1, 4.8, 15.9

Look man, I get it. Kupp is a polarizing guy in FF right now.

I don't think this discussion is all, or nothing. I think I got him at value. I did not spend a ton of draft capital on him. Those that are willing to reach for him as their WR2......well, that's a bit more risky.

It's all good! We're just talking the stats, if somebody wants to point out a 4 game stretch where he was WR9 to end the season, then I just wanted to point out in the previous 8 games he was WR44/45. He MIGHT have one more year of WR1 production in him, but if it's not this year, it's even less likely he's going to be a WR1 next year. As only ten WR aged 32 have ever gone for over 1,200 yards.

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31. Seems like there are less risky options available.


I hope he's a league winner for you, just from my perspective, I'd rather be out on Cooper Kupp a year early than a year late. They got a young 23 year old Puka Nacua waiting in the wings, I just think this is one of the most obvious bust potentials relative to ADP. If you were HC of the Rams, would you pepper your 31 year old WR who can't stay healthy with targets? Or would you give those to the 23 year old kid seemingly capable of filling those shoes.


I'll let you guys enjoy your thread now, I just wanted to present some facts to people who may be on the fence and haven't drafted yet.

He was also dealing with injury.

The 4-game stretch being pointed out was when he finally got healthy.

One set of stats might be more relevant to this year since he’s again fully healthy.

Chronology matters.

Yes, he was dealing with injury. He's missed 15 games in the last two-seasons. Astute observation. Maybe he's going to be healthier at Age 31 than he was at Age 30 and 29? That's your decision to make. Because football players always get healthier the older they get.

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

I’m aware that players get injured. I’m also aware that they get hurt more when they’re older.

In this case he suffered a soft tissue injury in camp.

Two years before that he had almost 2000 yards and one of the greatest WR fantasy football seasons on record.

And again, he did not suffer any injury this year in camp. He’s reportedly 100% - which is all you need to see if any player.

Yes - Kupp got hurt. You’re not sharing any revelation here for people who haven’t drafted yet. We are all well aware of his age & injury history.

But as I and others have said, that’s the risk one takes for that upside. And now it’s a late 2nd/early 3rd, so the risk is even mitigated slightly to where he becomes a value pick.

No one here has guaranteed his health. projecting that we’re ignoring any health concerns comes off as trolling.

Bro, I'm just stating facts. It's not that big a deal, if you want to tie your wagon to a 31 year old Wide Receiver who's missed 15 games the last two-years, that's fine. But don't get upset at me for pointing out that only 15 players in NFL history at age 31 have gone over 1,200 yards and if he doesn't do that this year, he's going to be vastly overdrafted.

And most of those guys who went over that number, didn't miss 15 games the last two seasons. Nothing to get upset about, I'm just giving you statistics, you can ignore them if you want and pound the drum that he's going to suddenly become the 16th age 31 WR to go for over 1,200 yards, even though he COULDN'T do it in his Age 29 or Age 30 season.


That's your decision. Facts vs feelings. I can't argue how you feel about something. I'm going to drop it, not my hill to die on. I hope you have a special day. Happy Friday!

Appreciate your feedback to this thread. You provided statistical analysis to support your position based on historical factual evidence and change my outlook on Kupp.

That's why I love this forum!

Keep in mind that Kupp was a rookie at 24. He has a 29 yo miles on him.

 

[kutta]

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-season, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31.

I don't know you, and I don't want to come off as a jerk. As a fantasy owner, I care more about a player's relative value. You discussed that this could potentially be Kupp's last season as a WR1. His ADP is WR29. By definition, those are the types of players you should be targeting, not labeling will-not-draft. All the risk and associated issues you have described about Kupp are baked into his cost / draft stock / discounted acquisition price. Similarly, if Kupp plays consistently, IMO, there isn't a good path for Puka to earn back his WR8 draft position. So on my draft board, Puka is the one with the will-not-draft label. I think he will have a negative ROI (as his increased scoring was temporary and situational). If you don't get a good vibe, then don't draft him. I would likely counter that other WRs available at the same point in the draft won't have the value or the upside, but there's no shortage of players to draft and plenty of other options available.

We could debate whether any player is more of an injury risk than any other . . . all guys are at risk of getting hurt on any play, and it's the severity of the injury that is pretty random. One guy gets a bone bruise and misses a game, another guy gets hit in the same spot and tears a meniscus. One guy gets a minor hamstring pull, another guy blows out his Achilles. As Bill Belichick used to say, tell me beforehand the play when a guy is going to get injured, and I will sit him out on that play.

I've been playing fantasy for decades and researched injuries quite a bit (for this very website). Yes, older players are more prone to get minor injuries, but I did not see any conclusive evidence that older players suffered a higher rate of major, season-ending injuries. Also, some players have had serious injuries that largely didn't matter for fantasy, as they happened at the end of a season instead of the start of the season. Bottom line, every player is an injury risk, and there's not a whole lot you can do about it. The one time I ever drafted Tom Brady, he tore his ACL in Week 1. Injuries happen, and all you can do is deal with them.

At this point, the season starts in 6 days, I'd rather just let the play on the field speak for itself. I posted an article above about WR/RB injury that supports my point (because I don't just post how I feel, I always support with facts). I'll post it again, it's a good read:

"Wide receivers are overwhelmingly healthy from the time they enter the league to their age 27 season. Nearly 80% of receivers 27 and younger missed two games or fewer. However, the numbers begin to decline around the age 28 season and extended absences become much more likely."


WR ages 21-24 → 79.5% missed 2 games or fewer

• Missed 3-4 games: 6.8%
• 5+ games: 13.7%
• Average games missed: 1.9

WRs 25-27 → 76.7% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 13.7%
• 5+ games: 9.6%
• Average games missed: 1.8

WRs 28-30 → 68.8% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 10.9%
• 5+ games: 20.3%
• Average games missed: 2.1

WRs 31+ → 63.2% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 15.8%
• 5+ games: 21%
• Average games missed: 2.9

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

So, on average, according to the stats, WRs older than 31 missed 1 (ONE) more game than WRs aged 21-24?

Ok. I’ll take that

 

[Mitchie]

Either way to me, it's a risky gamble to try and thread the needle on a 31 year old wide receiver who's missed 15 games in the last two-season, hoping for what would probably be his final year of WR1 production. That's just a very narrow window to fit the football into. I don't think his talent has deteriorated, but you know how it is, I could do things at Age 28 that suddenly became more difficult (seemingly overnight) at Age 31.

I don't know you, and I don't want to come off as a jerk. As a fantasy owner, I care more about a player's relative value. You discussed that this could potentially be Kupp's last season as a WR1. His ADP is WR29. By definition, those are the types of players you should be targeting, not labeling will-not-draft. All the risk and associated issues you have described about Kupp are baked into his cost / draft stock / discounted acquisition price. Similarly, if Kupp plays consistently, IMO, there isn't a good path for Puka to earn back his WR8 draft position. So on my draft board, Puka is the one with the will-not-draft label. I think he will have a negative ROI (as his increased scoring was temporary and situational). If you don't get a good vibe, then don't draft him. I would likely counter that other WRs available at the same point in the draft won't have the value or the upside, but there's no shortage of players to draft and plenty of other options available.

We could debate whether any player is more of an injury risk than any other . . . all guys are at risk of getting hurt on any play, and it's the severity of the injury that is pretty random. One guy gets a bone bruise and misses a game, another guy gets hit in the same spot and tears a meniscus. One guy gets a minor hamstring pull, another guy blows out his Achilles. As Bill Belichick used to say, tell me beforehand the play when a guy is going to get injured, and I will sit him out on that play.

I've been playing fantasy for decades and researched injuries quite a bit (for this very website). Yes, older players are more prone to get minor injuries, but I did not see any conclusive evidence that older players suffered a higher rate of major, season-ending injuries. Also, some players have had serious injuries that largely didn't matter for fantasy, as they happened at the end of a season instead of the start of the season. Bottom line, every player is an injury risk, and there's not a whole lot you can do about it. The one time I ever drafted Tom Brady, he tore his ACL in Week 1. Injuries happen, and all you can do is deal with them.

At this point, the season starts in 6 days, I'd rather just let the play on the field speak for itself. I posted an article above about WR/RB injury that supports my point (because I don't just post how I feel, I always support with facts). I'll post it again, it's a good read:

"Wide receivers are overwhelmingly healthy from the time they enter the league to their age 27 season. Nearly 80% of receivers 27 and younger missed two games or fewer. However, the numbers begin to decline around the age 28 season and extended absences become much more likely."


WR ages 21-24 → 79.5% missed 2 games or fewer

• Missed 3-4 games: 6.8%
• 5+ games: 13.7%
• Average games missed: 1.9

WRs 25-27 → 76.7% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 13.7%
• 5+ games: 9.6%
• Average games missed: 1.8

WRs 28-30 → 68.8% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 10.9%
• 5+ games: 20.3%
• Average games missed: 2.1

WRs 31+ → 63.2% missed 2 games or fewer

• 3-4 games: 15.8%
• 5+ games: 21%
• Average games missed: 2.9

Fantasy football: Analyzing injury rates for running backs, wide receivers

An analysis of the injury rates running back and wide receiver over the past 10 years -- and what to look for to help identify a player at heightened risk for injury.

www.masslive.com

So, on average, according to the stats, WRs older than 31 missed 1 (ONE) more game than WRs aged 21-24?

Ok. I’ll take that

Also grouping in all the 31+ together, decent chance that for 31 it's closer to 0 than 1.

 

[Insein]

Can't wait for games to be played so we have something real to argue about.

 

[Deamon]

Nakua is typically there at the 1/2 turn. Kupp has been going in round 3. It would be insane to draft them both, right? RIGHT?

I did it in my non PPR league where both of them took a big unexpected slide.

Took Puka at 2.08, and Kupp was sitting there at 4.08 and I couldn't resist.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

My last draft of the year, picked in the 1.01 slot in a 3RR PPR IDP

CMC 1.01
~> Kupp 2.12
~> Nabers 3.12

All-in on old man Kupp.

 

[packdog]

Nakua is typically there at the 1/2 turn. Kupp has been going in round 3. It would be insane to draft them both, right? RIGHT?

I did it in my non PPR league where both of them took a big unexpected slide.

Took Puka at 2.08, and Kupp was sitting there at 4.08 and I couldn't resist.

i did the same in one where kupp fell to the 3/4 turn. took bark/puca at 1/2 turn. i didn't like it but for variance i figured i needed a couple kupps this year in case i am wrong

i am not taking kupp in the 2nd or the 3rd so i won't have many shares. i know a lot of people are thinking of the past and what you could possibly get at a discount but i think those days are over. puca is legit and has more room for growth. we saw last year that kupp doesn't hurt him too much as he was like wr12 in the games kupp played with him. more target share and better in almost every metric. we saw kupp decline in all metrics. kupp was still wr2 caliber in games he was healthy but it was volatile.

so why would those roles reverse all of a sudden? i think people expecting top 3 wr stuff from kupp like back in the day should probably look at nacua harder. puka can outproduce his wr8 adp. kupp's past is the reason why. a little more growth from puca and little more decline for kupp and he's right there. and that's not a big hope to happen. it's logical progression

 

[Bad_Mo2]

Puka owner, definitely

 

[shadrap]

My last draft of the year, picked in the 1.01 slot in a 3RR PPR IDP

CMC 1.01
~> Kupp 2.12
~> Nabers 3.12

All-in on old man Kupp.

In a ffpc draft in in hour. I would mirror your first 3 picks but Kupp has been going lately in middle 2nd rd. Would love that start but I doubt he is there.

 

[packdog]

Puka owner, definitely

i have shares of most everyone

 

[shadrap]

My last draft of the year, picked in the 1.01 slot in a 3RR PPR IDP

CMC 1.01
~> Kupp 2.12
~> Nabers 3.12

All-in on old man Kupp.

Had 1 pick in FFPC; just finished. Got it but I went B. Hall in the 1st. I'm happy for now.
Good luck.

 

[kyoun1e]

My last draft of the year, picked in the 1.01 slot in a 3RR PPR IDP

CMC 1.01
~> Kupp 2.12
~> Nabers 3.12

All-in on old man Kupp.

Are you comfortable with Kupp as your #1 WR?

I keep running into scenarios where my #1 WR target is sniped and my target for #2 WR in the early third (Kupp) is still sitting there.

Obviously would prefer him as my #2, but I'm pretty sold on him coming back to form.

 

[KellysHeroes]

My last draft of the year, picked in the 1.01 slot in a 3RR PPR IDP

CMC 1.01
~> Kupp 2.12
~> Nabers 3.12

All-in on old man Kupp.

Are you comfortable with Kupp as your #1 WR?

I keep running into scenarios where my #1 WR target is sniped and my target for #2 WR in the early third (Kupp) is still sitting there.

Obviously would prefer him as my #2, but I'm pretty sold on him coming back to form.

As a WR1... no, but if you can sneak him as a #3 or LOAD up everywhere else then take Kupp as a 2. Hell yeah

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Are you comfortable with Kupp as your #1 WR?

I keep running into scenarios where my #1 WR target is sniped and my target for #2 WR in the early third (Kupp) is still sitting there.

Obviously would prefer him as my #2, but I'm pretty sold on him coming back to form.

In this format with 3RR, and me getting DKM/Nabers as my 2/3, Kupp can be my WR2 or 3 and still be fine where I picked him. But that said, I am totally comfortable with him as my WR1, yes.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As a WR1... no, but if you can sneak him as a #3 or LOAD up everywhere else then take Kupp as a 2. Hell yeah

I ended up with CMC, Kupp, Metcalf, Nabers, Kincaid, Harris, Higgins (FLX), Javonte, Murray.

Couldn't be happier with that lineup. I would have taken Nico over Kupp if he'd made it back to me, but someone reached for him early 2nd so

 

[kyoun1e]

As a WR1... no, but if you can sneak him as a #3 or LOAD up everywhere else then take Kupp as a 2. Hell yeah

I ended up with CMC, Kupp, Metcalf, Nabers, Kincaid, Harris, Higgins (FLX), Javonte, Murray.

Couldn't be happier with that lineup. I would have taken Nico over Kupp if he'd made it back to me, but someone reached for him early 2nd so

I am totally hoping I can go RB-WR-WR with a Nico and Kupp tandem. When I have the early pick and that 2/3 turn, just hoping I'm not sniped.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Drafted Kupp at 3.09 in a 10 teamer tonight. Jefferson in the first

Let’s go Cooper

 

[Panda13]

As a WR1... no, but if you can sneak him as a #3 or LOAD up everywhere else then take Kupp as a 2. Hell yeah

I ended up with CMC, Kupp, Metcalf, Nabers, Kincaid, Harris, Higgins (FLX), Javonte, Murray.

Couldn't be happier with that lineup. I would have taken Nico over Kupp if he'd made it back to me, but someone reached for him early 2nd so

I am totally hoping I can go RB-WR-WR with a Nico and Kupp tandem. When I have the early pick and that 2/3 turn, just hoping I'm not sniped.

This is what I did. I went Hall, Kupp, Nico.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As a WR1... no, but if you can sneak him as a #3 or LOAD up everywhere else then take Kupp as a 2. Hell yeah

I ended up with CMC, Kupp, Metcalf, Nabers, Kincaid, Harris, Higgins (FLX), Javonte, Murray.

Couldn't be happier with that lineup. I would have taken Nico over Kupp if he'd made it back to me, but someone reached for him early 2nd so

I am totally hoping I can go RB-WR-WR with a Nico and Kupp tandem. When I have the early pick and that 2/3 turn, just hoping I'm not sniped.

This is what I did. I went Hall, Kupp, Nico.

I fully expected to.

Team 10 had other plans. Nico 2.05, Stroud 4.08 after 3RR.

Both too early for my tastes.

 

[travdogg]

Man, I suddenly feel like the low guy on Kupp. He went 39th in my draft Wednesday, and I didn't even really consider him. I got both Waddle and DeVonta Smith after him and would have taken both over him.

Its kinda funny how this works out sometimes. Just after the NFL Draft, I was probably high, or at least on par on Kupp, now I think he's pretty overvalued. I feel like he's a 4/5 turn kind of guy, low-end WR2.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Man, I suddenly feel like the low guy on Kupp. He went 39th in my draft Wednesday, and I didn't even really consider him. I got both Waddle and DeVonta Smith after him and would have taken both over him.

Its kinda funny how this works out sometimes. Just after the NFL Draft, I was probably high, or at least on par on Kupp, now I think he's pretty overvalued. I feel like he's a 4/5 turn kind of guy, low-end WR2.

Kupp, Waddle and DeVonta all in the 4th round (assuming 12 teams)? Is this Superflex and/or TE premium?

Kupp is my most expensive WR in my Superflex auction league ($30 in a $250 cap), and I might have overpaid a bit, but I got DJ Moore for $25, which was less than I expected, so I think they canceled each other out.

 

[travdogg]

Man, I suddenly feel like the low guy on Kupp. He went 39th in my draft Wednesday, and I didn't even really consider him. I got both Waddle and DeVonta Smith after him and would have taken both over him.

Its kinda funny how this works out sometimes. Just after the NFL Draft, I was probably high, or at least on par on Kupp, now I think he's pretty overvalued. I feel like he's a 4/5 turn kind of guy, low-end WR2.

Kupp, Waddle and DeVonta all in the 4th round (assuming 12 teams)? Is this Superflex and/or TE premium?

Kupp is my most expensive WR in my Superflex auction league ($30 in a $250 cap), and I might have overpaid a bit, but I got DJ Moore for $25, which was less than I expected, so I think they canceled each other out.

Not Superflex or TE premium. TEs did go highly, as 5 (LaPorta, Kelce, McBride, Andrews, Kittle) were gone before Kupp. I can argue all but Kittle. Also, the big 4 QBs were gone.

It was 10 team, Waddle/Smith were 40/41. Though I think Kupp is a 4/5 turn guy in 12 team. I liked Smith and especially Waddle a full round more than Kupp.

I think I'm just lower than most (at least in the Kupp thread) on Kupp. Seeing DJ Moore being cheaper and seeing DK/Nabers as the picks after Kupp to the same owner, and I'm just thinking I like all of those guys (Nabers I can debate, given the QB situation) more than Kupp.

 

[Schmeabs]

Man, I suddenly feel like the low guy on Kupp. He went 39th in my draft Wednesday, and I didn't even really consider him. I got both Waddle and DeVonta Smith after him and would have taken both over him.

Its kinda funny how this works out sometimes. Just after the NFL Draft, I was probably high, or at least on par on Kupp, now I think he's pretty overvalued. I feel like he's a 4/5 turn kind of guy, low-end WR2.

In my 12 team draft at pick 6 I took Kupp in 3rd and D Smith in 4th

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

Nakua is typically there at the 1/2 turn. Kupp has been going in round 3. It would be insane to draft them both, right? RIGHT?

I did it in my non PPR league where both of them took a big unexpected slide.

Took Puka at 2.08, and Kupp was sitting there at 4.08 and I couldn't resist.

This reminds me of many years ago when I took Marvin Harrison AND Reggie Wayne. Won the league going away. Hope the same happens for you.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Marvin Harrison AND Reggie Wayne

I had that duo and also won with them.

Another year I got absolutely destroyed by the team that took Manning + the 2 PPR machines in Denver in a league with big yardage bonuses.

IIRC it was a TNF game, either opening week or week 2. I was down 150+ before any of my players took the field. They went absolutely ham.