WR DeAndre Hopkins, KC (1 Viewer)

[Eminence]

He's good. Real good. Scores touchdowns. Nuke (sp).

 

[Eminence]

Like Fitzgerald and White combined, plays similar.

 

[werdnoynek]

He's OK. All he'll ever be...

Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling.

ETA: Mediocre situation

 

[finito]

Like Fitzgerald and White combined, plays similar.

Now that's one great WR. Are we sure he's that good? I kinda like him but saying he's a combination of two of the best players in the sport seems to be hyperbole - people would be giving up the farm to grab him at 1.01 if that were close to being true.

 

[beto]

I'm not the greatest at evaluating WRs but this kid looks really good to me. He took over several games in 2013 and I like to see that in a player. I think he's at least as good a prospect as Blackmon.

 

[cstu]

He's OK. All he'll ever be...

Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling.

ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

 

[Lucky Dolfan 81]

I also thought it was weird he didn't have a thread. I liked what I saw, and I got him at 1.02 in my PPR, right after Gio.

 

[EBF]

Had a chance to get him in a couple rookie drafts and passed. Don't hate him, but he doesn't stack up with the NFL's elite physically. Just average speed and only a 9'7" broad jump. He has really good hands and he's a pretty good route runner, so I think he'll be a solid #2 or #1B target, but I don't know if he's got that extra something to become a #1. I never quite got the "wow" factor from his game cuts.

 

[lsutigers]

Took him over Patterson at 1.06 in dynasty ppr rookie. (Weird draft where rb's went early).

Perfect landing spot for him where good, safe talent lands in plush opportunity. The LSU game is brought up often for Nuke but with good reason. He (with some credit to Boyd) decimated us; man, zone, didn't matter.

 

[lsutigers]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

 

[BigTex]

I like DH, he'll do well at this level.

 

[werdnoynek]

He's OK. All he'll ever be...

Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling.

ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

I think that's a stretch.

 

[werdnoynek]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

They were also 24th in passing attempts. They just don't throw the ball all that often and as you pointed out, are clearly a run first team. Schaub is a middling talent at QB. I'm sure he'll get his slice of the pie, but that slice isn't going to be that big IMO.

 

[werdnoynek]

Had a chance to get him in a couple rookie drafts and passed. Don't hate him, but he doesn't stack up with the NFL's elite physically. Just average speed and only a 9'7" broad jump. He has really good hands and he's a pretty good route runner, so I think he'll be a solid #2 or #1B target, but I don't know if he's got that extra something to become a #1. I never quite got the "wow" factor from his game cuts.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

He's OK. All he'll ever be... Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling. ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

How soon we forget. Blackmon was far and away the top WR prospect in 2012. Last year's class was superior to this one. And yet the 3rd best, at best, prospect in this year's class is just as good? Not hardly. Nothing I've seen of Hopkins leads me to believe he is anything better than a second option in any passing game. Blackmon jumps off the screen. Hopkins does not.

 

[Lucky Dolfan 81]

He's OK. All he'll ever be... Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling. ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

How soon we forget. Blackmon was far and away the top WR prospect in 2012. Last year's class was superior to this one. And yet the 3rd best, at best, prospect in this year's class is just as good? Not hardly. Nothing I've seen of Hopkins leads me to believe he is anything better than a second option in any passing game. Blackmon jumps off the screen. Hopkins does not.

Sure comparing to Blackmon, a top 5 pick last year is a bit of a stretch, but the bolded part is a bit harsh given he was 2nd WR off the board in the 1st round. He may not have the "wow" factor or "jump off the screen", but those are things that will come with elusiveness with the ball in your hands, a la Patterson. Route running in order to catch the ball in the first place is also a pretty important part of the equation. His NFL comparison is Roddy White. I never really get a wow factor from Roddy, but he constantly produces.

 

[EBF]

I don't agree with the Roddy White comparison. White is a more explosive athlete. At his pro day he ran 4.45 with a 10'6" broad jump and 41" vertical leap. Hopkins ran 4.51-4.57 with a 9'7" broad jump and a 36" vertical leap. Roddy had the ability to threaten a defense vertically. From what I've seen of Hopkins, that's probably his biggest weakness. He's more of a pure possession receiver than a guy who can run by corners deep.

 

[menobrown]

He's OK. All he'll ever be... Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling. ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

How soon we forget. Blackmon was far and away the top WR prospect in 2012. Last year's class was superior to this one. And yet the 3rd best, at best, prospect in this year's class is just as good? Not hardly. Nothing I've seen of Hopkins leads me to believe he is anything better than a second option in any passing game. Blackmon jumps off the screen. Hopkins does not.

I don't think last years WR class was superior to this one myself.Put me in the camp that believes Hopkins landing spot was average the next few years. Short term seems like a great place to post low end WR2 type numbers, bad place to post WR1 type numbers.In term of size and speed I think his best comp is actually Hakeem Nicks. they are similar size, speed, similar vertical. The underrated huge positive trait they both possess is TE like arm length and hand size. Both have arm lengths in the mid 33.5 range and massive 10"+ hands. When you combine this with Hopkins basketball background and what I've seen on tape I see a strong big handed WR who knows how to get position.He seems like one of the safest picks of the rookie draft to me, certainly safer than any other WR I just don't put his upside on the same level as guys like Patterson and Austin.

 

[bengalbuck]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

Andre is not mid 30s though. He is 31 and turns 32 soon and is coming off a monster season. He has 4 more years on his contract. Looking at the numbers, it won't be until 2015 when the Texans may have a tough decision on whether or not to ask him to restructure as his salary is low the next 2 years and even in 2015 isn't crazy high. He is likely to be a Texan for the next 3 years.So I think if you draft him, you have to be patient knowing that he won't be the #1 for at least 2 years, probably longer. So you are getting a #2 in an offense that runs a lot, throws a lot to the RBs and TEs and has a big time #1 WR. It isn't a terrible situation due to the numbers you mentioned, but it isn't great either in my opinion.

 

[lod01]

I'm not the greatest at evaluating WRs but this kid looks really good to me. He took over several games in 2013 and I like to see that in a player. I think he's at least as good a prospect as Blackmon.

I totally suck at evaluating RB talent.

I'm awesome at evaluating WR talent. This guy is good. Rave reviews at minicamp. I have him at the top of my WR board. Even after Schaub, the QB's are good enough so he has longterm potential. I also like the division he is in. He is better than Kevin Walter who has produced 60-899-8 the same year that AJ produced 115-1575-8. It's all whether the 'O' philosophy moves to throwing more.

Not sure where the 'mediocre hands' comes from. I don't see mediocre. Should start from day 1.

NFL.com

Snatches throws with his hands. Concentrates on the ball throughout difficult catches. Very good body control to contort his body on catches and pluck the ball out of the air.

 

[GeeYouknit]

#1 WR on my board. Doesn't exactly mean much because I do very little evaluating and its mostly eye test but still passes my test ha.

 

[Dragon1952]

Maybe if they had a really good option opposite Johnson they'd throw more. AJ got 162 targets and the next most targeted WR was Walter with just 68. After that it's basically zip for WR targets.

 

[gianmarco]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

Andre is not mid 30s though. He is 31 and turns 32 soon and is coming off a monster season. He has 4 more years on his contract. Looking at the numbers, it won't be until 2015 when the Texans may have a tough decision on whether or not to ask him to restructure as his salary is low the next 2 years and even in 2015 isn't crazy high. He is likely to be a Texan for the next 3 years.So I think if you draft him, you have to be patient knowing that he won't be the #1 for at least 2 years, probably longer. So you are getting a #2 in an offense that runs a lot, throws a lot to the RBs and TEs and has a big time #1 WR. It isn't a terrible situation due to the numbers you mentioned, but it isn't great either in my opinion.

Roddy White is 31, turning 32. Do you think people were complaining about how terrible the situation was that Julio found himself in?

Just to remind you, here was Atlanta's situation:

Atlanta in 2010 (the year before Julio was drafted)

--Matt Ryan had 571 passing attempts

--Roddy led all WRs with 177 targets

--Jenkins was #2 WR with 73 targets

--Gonzo at TE had 109 targets

--Turner (28 years old) had 344 rushes for 1371 yards and 12 TDs

Now, here's Houston:

Houston in 2012 (the year before Hopkins was drafted)

--Matt Schaub had 544 passing attempts

--AJ led all WRs with 179 targets

--Kevin Walter was #2 WR with 76 targets

--Daniels at TE had 130 targets

--Foster (26 years old) had 351 rushes for 1411 yards and 15 TDs

Eerily similar down to QBs first names and the fact they finally went out and drafted a WR in the 1st round.

So, what did Atlanta do the next 2 years:

Atlanta in 2011 (Julio's rookie year)

--Ryan had 566 passing attempts

--Roddy had 191 targets

--Julio had 102 targets

--Gonzo had 122 targets

--Turner had 301 rushes for 1340 yards and 11 TDs

Atlanta in 2012 (Julio's 2nd year)

--Ryan had 615 passing attempts

--Roddy had 153 targets

--Julio had 138 targets

--Gonzo had 131 targets

--Turner had 223 rushes for 803 yards and 10 TDs

What happened? Atlanta's offense adapted to their new playmaker at WR. They also became more potent on offense and were able to run more plays while not having their RB carry 300+ times/season. They were easily able to support 2 top tier WRs and a top TE while having an established running game.

In the end, if Hopkins is the goods, his situation in Houston is in no way, shape, or form a negative. In fact, given AJ's age, Foster's heavy workload, Daniels' age, it makes sense why they invested a 1st round pick on a WR. It's not to finally complement AJ. It's to join AJ and eventually take over much like Julio.

Now, I'm not saying that Hopkins is the megastud that Julio is, but the point is that if you think he is a top tier talent (Houston does based on the fact he was the #2 WR off the board behind only Austin), you should be happy with his landing spot. Schaub is still only 32 years old.

He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ.

My $.02.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

Andre is not mid 30s though. He is 31 and turns 32 soon and is coming off a monster season. He has 4 more years on his contract. Looking at the numbers, it won't be until 2015 when the Texans may have a tough decision on whether or not to ask him to restructure as his salary is low the next 2 years and even in 2015 isn't crazy high. He is likely to be a Texan for the next 3 years.So I think if you draft him, you have to be patient knowing that he won't be the #1 for at least 2 years, probably longer. So you are getting a #2 in an offense that runs a lot, throws a lot to the RBs and TEs and has a big time #1 WR. It isn't a terrible situation due to the numbers you mentioned, but it isn't great either in my opinion.

Roddy White is 31, turning 32. Do you think people were complaining about how terrible the situation was that Julio found himself in?

Just to remind you, here was Atlanta's situation:

Atlanta in 2010 (the year before Julio was drafted)

--Matt Ryan had 571 passing attempts

--Roddy led all WRs with 177 targets

--Jenkins was #2 WR with 73 targets

--Gonzo at TE had 109 targets

--Turner (28 years old) had 344 rushes for 1371 yards and 12 TDs

Now, here's Houston:

Houston in 2012 (the year before Hopkins was drafted)

--Matt Schaub had 544 passing attempts

--AJ led all WRs with 179 targets

--Kevin Walter was #2 WR with 76 targets

--Daniels at TE had 130 targets

--Foster (26 years old) had 351 rushes for 1411 yards and 15 TDs

Eerily similar down to QBs first names and the fact they finally went out and drafted a WR in the 1st round.

So, what did Atlanta do the next 2 years:

Atlanta in 2011 (Julio's rookie year)

--Ryan had 566 passing attempts

--Roddy had 191 targets

--Julio had 102 targets

--Gonzo had 122 targets

--Turner had 301 rushes for 1340 yards and 11 TDs

Atlanta in 2012 (Julio's 2nd year)

--Ryan had 615 passing attempts

--Roddy had 153 targets

--Julio had 138 targets

--Gonzo had 131 targets

--Turner had 223 rushes for 803 yards and 10 TDs

What happened? Atlanta's offense adapted to their new playmaker at WR. They also became more potent on offense and were able to run more plays while not having their RB carry 300+ times/season. They were easily able to support 2 top tier WRs and a top TE while having an established running game.

In the end, if Hopkins is the goods, his situation in Houston is in no way, shape, or form a negative. In fact, given AJ's age, Foster's heavy workload, Daniels' age, it makes sense why they invested a 1st round pick on a WR. It's not to finally complement AJ. It's to join AJ and eventually take over much like Julio.

Now, I'm not saying that Hopkins is the megastud that Julio is, but the point is that if you think he is a top tier talent (Houston does based on the fact he was the #2 WR off the board behind only Austin), you should be happy with his landing spot. Schaub is still only 32 years old.

He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ.

My $.02.

One of the best posts I've read in a long time. Great job!

 

[cstu]

He's OK. All he'll ever be... Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling. ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

How soon we forget. Blackmon was far and away the top WR prospect in 2012. Last year's class was superior to this one. And yet the 3rd best, at best, prospect in this year's class is just as good? Not hardly. Nothing I've seen of Hopkins leads me to believe he is anything better than a second option in any passing game. Blackmon jumps off the screen. Hopkins does not.

I was a big supporter of Blackmon and in fact took him at 1.02 overall. Regardless of draft position (both still 1st round picks) I don't view Hopkins as much lesser of the talent in some ways, like his intensity, he's actually better. One reason Blackmon jumped off the screen was the offense he played in and his competition - I wouldn't hold that against Hopkins. Hopkins doesn't blow you away but he simply makes plays.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

He's OK. All he'll ever be... Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling. ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

How soon we forget. Blackmon was far and away the top WR prospect in 2012. Last year's class was superior to this one. And yet the 3rd best, at best, prospect in this year's class is just as good? Not hardly. Nothing I've seen of Hopkins leads me to believe he is anything better than a second option in any passing game. Blackmon jumps off the screen. Hopkins does not.

Sure comparing to Blackmon, a top 5 pick last year is a bit of a stretch, but the bolded part is a bit harsh given he was 2nd WR off the board in the 1st round. He may not have the "wow" factor or "jump off the screen", but those are things that will come with elusiveness with the ball in your hands, a la Patterson. Route running in order to catch the ball in the first place is also a pretty important part of the equation. His NFL comparison is Roddy White. I never really get a wow factor from Roddy, but he constantly produces.

From what I've seen of Hopkins, even in his highlights, he doesn't create separation. Recipe for underachieving relative to expectations. NFL corners are bigger and faster. When I watch him I think Sidney Rice. Only he's not as big or as fast.

 

[werdnoynek]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

Andre is not mid 30s though. He is 31 and turns 32 soon and is coming off a monster season. He has 4 more years on his contract. Looking at the numbers, it won't be until 2015 when the Texans may have a tough decision on whether or not to ask him to restructure as his salary is low the next 2 years and even in 2015 isn't crazy high. He is likely to be a Texan for the next 3 years.So I think if you draft him, you have to be patient knowing that he won't be the #1 for at least 2 years, probably longer. So you are getting a #2 in an offense that runs a lot, throws a lot to the RBs and TEs and has a big time #1 WR. It isn't a terrible situation due to the numbers you mentioned, but it isn't great either in my opinion.

Roddy White is 31, turning 32. Do you think people were complaining about how terrible the situation was that Julio found himself in?

Just to remind you, here was Atlanta's situation:

Atlanta in 2010 (the year before Julio was drafted)

--Matt Ryan had 571 passing attempts

--Roddy led all WRs with 177 targets

--Jenkins was #2 WR with 73 targets

--Gonzo at TE had 109 targets

--Turner (28 years old) had 344 rushes for 1371 yards and 12 TDs

Now, here's Houston:

Houston in 2012 (the year before Hopkins was drafted)

--Matt Schaub had 544 passing attempts

--AJ led all WRs with 179 targets

--Kevin Walter was #2 WR with 76 targets

--Daniels at TE had 130 targets

--Foster (26 years old) had 351 rushes for 1411 yards and 15 TDs

Eerily similar down to QBs first names and the fact they finally went out and drafted a WR in the 1st round.

So, what did Atlanta do the next 2 years:

Atlanta in 2011 (Julio's rookie year)

--Ryan had 566 passing attempts

--Roddy had 191 targets

--Julio had 102 targets

--Gonzo had 122 targets

--Turner had 301 rushes for 1340 yards and 11 TDs

Atlanta in 2012 (Julio's 2nd year)

--Ryan had 615 passing attempts

--Roddy had 153 targets

--Julio had 138 targets

--Gonzo had 131 targets

--Turner had 223 rushes for 803 yards and 10 TDs

What happened? Atlanta's offense adapted to their new playmaker at WR. They also became more potent on offense and were able to run more plays while not having their RB carry 300+ times/season. They were easily able to support 2 top tier WRs and a top TE while having an established running game.

In the end, if Hopkins is the goods, his situation in Houston is in no way, shape, or form a negative. In fact, given AJ's age, Foster's heavy workload, Daniels' age, it makes sense why they invested a 1st round pick on a WR. It's not to finally complement AJ. It's to join AJ and eventually take over much like Julio.

Now, I'm not saying that Hopkins is the megastud that Julio is, but the point is that if you think he is a top tier talent (Houston does based on the fact he was the #2 WR off the board behind only Austin), you should be happy with his landing spot. Schaub is still only 32 years old.

He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ.

My $.02.

Nice post about Atlanta and Julio... but Hopkins <> Julio and Schaub <> Ryan.

Julio "commanded" targets because he's a stud. You said it yourself, Hopkins isn't a stud. Sure he'll get his but "commanding" targets is a bit out of his reach as a complimentary player IMO.

 

[cstu]

He's OK. All he'll ever be... Mediocre size, mediocre speed, mediocre hands, mediocre ceiling. ETA: Mediocre situation

Just as talented as Blackmon and has a better situation. Also, if Crabtree had run at the combine I don't think he would have been any more impressive than Hopkins.

How soon we forget. Blackmon was far and away the top WR prospect in 2012. Last year's class was superior to this one. And yet the 3rd best, at best, prospect in this year's class is just as good? Not hardly. Nothing I've seen of Hopkins leads me to believe he is anything better than a second option in any passing game. Blackmon jumps off the screen. Hopkins does not.

Sure comparing to Blackmon, a top 5 pick last year is a bit of a stretch, but the bolded part is a bit harsh given he was 2nd WR off the board in the 1st round. He may not have the "wow" factor or "jump off the screen", but those are things that will come with elusiveness with the ball in your hands, a la Patterson. Route running in order to catch the ball in the first place is also a pretty important part of the equation. His NFL comparison is Roddy White. I never really get a wow factor from Roddy, but he constantly produces.

From what I've seen of Hopkins, even in his highlights, he doesn't create separation. Recipe for underachieving relative to expectations. NFL corners are bigger and faster. When I watch him I think Sidney Rice. Only he's not as big or as fast.

He gets open enough and even better he catches the ball. Watch the

where he is getting mauled but still put up 13/191/2.

 

[cstu]

 

[bengalbuck]

ETA: Mediocre situation

I don't get this? Sure the Texans were 8th in rush offense, but they were 11th in pass yardage per game? Andre is mid 30's. Shaub is average (when healthy) but he's not terrible. That's a great opportunity.

Andre is not mid 30s though. He is 31 and turns 32 soon and is coming off a monster season. He has 4 more years on his contract. Looking at the numbers, it won't be until 2015 when the Texans may have a tough decision on whether or not to ask him to restructure as his salary is low the next 2 years and even in 2015 isn't crazy high. He is likely to be a Texan for the next 3 years.So I think if you draft him, you have to be patient knowing that he won't be the #1 for at least 2 years, probably longer. So you are getting a #2 in an offense that runs a lot, throws a lot to the RBs and TEs and has a big time #1 WR. It isn't a terrible situation due to the numbers you mentioned, but it isn't great either in my opinion.

Roddy White is 31, turning 32. Do you think people were complaining about how terrible the situation was that Julio found himself in? Just to remind you, here was Atlanta's situation: Atlanta in 2010 (the year before Julio was drafted) --Matt Ryan had 571 passing attempts--Roddy led all WRs with 177 targets--Jenkins was #2 WR with 73 targets--Gonzo at TE had 109 targets--Turner (28 years old) had 344 rushes for 1371 yards and 12 TDs Now, here's Houston: Houston in 2012 (the year before Hopkins was drafted)--Matt Schaub had 544 passing attempts--AJ led all WRs with 179 targets--Kevin Walter was #2 WR with 76 targets--Daniels at TE had 130 targets--Foster (26 years old) had 351 rushes for 1411 yards and 15 TDs Eerily similar down to QBs first names and the fact they finally went out and drafted a WR in the 1st round. So, what did Atlanta do the next 2 years: Atlanta in 2011 (Julio's rookie year)--Ryan had 566 passing attempts--Roddy had 191 targets--Julio had 102 targets--Gonzo had 122 targets--Turner had 301 rushes for 1340 yards and 11 TDs Atlanta in 2012 (Julio's 2nd year)--Ryan had 615 passing attempts--Roddy had 153 targets--Julio had 138 targets--Gonzo had 131 targets--Turner had 223 rushes for 803 yards and 10 TDs What happened? Atlanta's offense adapted to their new playmaker at WR. They also became more potent on offense and were able to run more plays while not having their RB carry 300+ times/season. They were easily able to support 2 top tier WRs and a top TE while having an established running game. In the end, if Hopkins is the goods, his situation in Houston is in no way, shape, or form a negative. In fact, given AJ's age, Foster's heavy workload, Daniels' age, it makes sense why they invested a 1st round pick on a WR. It's not to finally complement AJ. It's to join AJ and eventually take over much like Julio. Now, I'm not saying that Hopkins is the megastud that Julio is, but the point is that if you think he is a top tier talent (Houston does based on the fact he was the #2 WR off the board behind only Austin), you should be happy with his landing spot. Schaub is still only 32 years old. He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ. My $.02.

Not sure why you quoted me in this response. I specifically said right there in my post that it is NOT a terrible situation. I think it is merely an average situation. I would argue that Julio is also in an average situation. He is super talented and has overcome his situation to a certain extent. If you look at Julio, he was targeted 129 times in year 2. The situation doesn't really allow for 160+ targets like it does for guys like Calvin, AJ, Welker, etc. And unlike the Falcons, the Texans also throw to the RBs a lot.Having another top WR on the roster isn't the end of the world and doesn't make it a terrible situation. But I would still argue it is not a great situation like when a guy is drafted onto a team where he is likely to lead the team in targets as a rookie if he earns it. Tavon Austin has that chance. AJ Green had that chance. It just caps Hopkins' upside a little bit until Andre Johnson is no longer the #1 guy.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Are you referring to all the plays in which he was immediately tackled, the ones in which he got no separation and the ball was either knocked away or dropped, or the zone coverage where the corner let him run down the seem untouched? Color me not impressed. Will never be an effective #1, and I stand by that.

 

[Faust]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000206533/article/deandre-hopkins-behind-texans-secondyear-wrs

DeAndre Hopkins behind Texans' second-year WRs

By Marc Sessler

Around the League Writer

Houston Texans coach Gary Kubiak gushed this month over DeAndre Hopkins, calling the first-year wide receiver a "special" talent in position to help Houston right out of the gate.

As predicted, Hopkins played with the first team during this week's organized team activities, but receivers coach Larry Kirksey says his new pupil has yet to be crowned a starter.

"The (second-year guys) have come a long way from last year, and now DeAndre's got to go through the same learning process," Kirksey told Tania Ganguli of the Houston Chronicle. "He's a talented young man, and we have very high expectations for him. But these second-year guys are ahead of him right now. They're competing; they're not just going to let him have the job."

Those second-year guys -- Keshawn Martin and Lestar Jean (actually a third-year player who spent 2011 on injured reserve) -- don't possess the natural gifts Hopkins brings to the table, but they both figure to make the roster after Kevin Walter signed with the Tennessee Titans.

It's May, and Kirksey wants competition, but Kubiak has been crystal clear: Unless Hopkins totally bombs, he'll be there across from Andre Johnson when the real games start.

Follow Marc Sessler on Twitter @MarcSesslerNFL.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

 

[msommer]

Schaub could be more Rich Gannon.

Not sure how Adre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins really compare to Jerry Rice and Tim Brown, though.

 

[cstu]

Can we all agree that Hopkins is an improvement on Kevin Walter and Walter's numbers should be a floor for him? I got him in a league and I'm not sold on his upside (at least in the short-term while AJ is still playing) as more than a WR3 but the Texans have wanted to fix their #2 receiver situation for years and it appears they finally have.

 

[gianmarco]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it.

Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement).

As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I think he'll fill the gaping hole at WR2 they've had for years. Barring injury, I think we're a few years from having to address replacing Andre at WR1.

They desperately needed to move on from Walter and having to rely on Daniels as the #2 receiving option.

 

[EBF]

I think he'll fill the gaping hole at WR2 they've had for years. Barring injury, I think we're a few years from having to address replacing Andre at WR1.

They desperately needed to move on from Walter and having to rely on Daniels as the #2 receiving option.

I think he'll be a nice pick for them in real life.

From a FF standpoint, I think the million dollar question with regards to his future is whether or not he can really become the guy when Andre fades. He doesn't have jaw-dropping tools and doesn't really jump off the screen as a dominant player to me. He's a safe pick, but I think there are several WRs in this draft who have a higher ceiling.

 

[cstu]

I think he'll fill the gaping hole at WR2 they've had for years. Barring injury, I think we're a few years from having to address replacing Andre at WR1.

They desperately needed to move on from Walter and having to rely on Daniels as the #2 receiving option.

I think he'll be a nice pick for them in real life.

From a FF standpoint, I think the million dollar question with regards to his future is whether or not he can really become the guy when Andre fades. He doesn't have jaw-dropping tools and doesn't really jump off the screen as a dominant player to me. He's a safe pick, but I think there are several WRs in this draft who have a higher ceiling.

There's nothing jaw dropping about him but there was nothing jaw dropping about Nicks either. He'll likely never be a 1500/15 type guy but he seems capable of replicating what Nicks has done.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I can't think of a better situation. He's not a #1 so working under AJ and Foster's umbrella is perfect. He's very simular to Justin Blackmon minus the hype. Blackmon didn't take off until Shorts took the heat from his side. Or like cstu said maybe a faster Crabtree. Shaub has shown that he can feed his #2 WR. He's going to blend in and make the offense better. Hopkins is one of of the safest picks in rookie drafts. He likely won't disappoint you. Ranking him #2-3 overall isn't crazy. On draftday I say he'll catch 80 balls. Thats not crazy either. This is more like Fitz and Boldin than Roddy and Julio.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

 

[gianmarco]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

 

[Lucky Dolfan 81]

I think he'll fill the gaping hole at WR2 they've had for years. Barring injury, I think we're a few years from having to address replacing Andre at WR1.

They desperately needed to move on from Walter and having to rely on Daniels as the #2 receiving option.

I think he'll be a nice pick for them in real life.

From a FF standpoint, I think the million dollar question with regards to his future is whether or not he can really become the guy when Andre fades. He doesn't have jaw-dropping tools and doesn't really jump off the screen as a dominant player to me. He's a safe pick, but I think there are several WRs in this draft who have a higher ceiling.

I think the answer to this question is yes. I value the fact that he is known for being a very hard worker, and gets a chance to learn from a future HOFer. WRs don't necessarily have to have elite straight line speed to succeed. I mean Brandon Marshall is not particularly fast yet he is averaging almost 100 catches per year over the last 6 years. There were no Calvin Johnsons in this years draft with perennial top 3 upside, but top 10 upside is good enough for me in this class.

Also, EBF, I thought you love the high BMI guys. Doesn't he calculate to 28 or so at 6'1" 214?

 

[gianmarco]

Makes it look easy

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

I didn't even get a chance to mention that you are comparing Julio Jones year N+1 to Hopkins year N. Ryan's attempts actually decreased in Jones' rookie year. I guess it can be left assumed that you think Hopkins will have a greater impact on Schaub in his rookie year than Jones had on Ryan in his second year. But yeah, we will see. I hope there is no buck passing.edit... I don't want to argue for the sake of it the whole time. Over the past three years, here are the 1st round WR prosects:AJ GreenJulio JonesBaldwinBlackmonFloydWrightJenkinsAustinHopkinsPattersonCan you rank those?

 

[gianmarco]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

I didn't even get a chance to mention that you are comparing Julio Jones year N+1 to Hopkins year N. Ryan's attempts actually decreased in Jones' rookie year. I guess it can be left assumed that you think Hopkins will have a greater impact on Schaub in his rookie year than Jones had on Ryan in his second year. But yeah, we will see. I hope there is no buck passing.

I did no such thing. You should reread my original post on this that started this quoting tree. Here is the relevant part:

He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ.

In fact, I made it a point to show the numbers the year before Julio was there, his rookie year, and his 2nd year. This was in response that AJ will likely be a Texan for at least 3 years suggesting that it may be at least 3 years before you start seeing a return on Hopkins. I was pointing out in a VERY similar situation, Julio was able to put up numbers in his 2nd year despite target hog Roddy still being there. Thus, I think Hopkins is capable of doing the same (i.e., put up starting fantasy WR numbers in his 2nd year).

To be clear, I'm not expecting Hopkins to put up all-wordly numbers this year. But I do think he'll hit ~100 targets as the #2 WR in that offense. If he does well in that role, I expect that number to go up in 2014 and we'll see a similar shift to more passing in Houston and less rushing by Foster (who will be 28 and likely coming off 4 straight years of big workloads).

Again, you should consider rereading my post as it seems you're confusing the point I was making and putting words in my mouth that I never said nor implied.

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

I didn't even get a chance to mention that you are comparing Julio Jones year N+1 to Hopkins year N. Ryan's attempts actually decreased in Jones' rookie year. I guess it can be left assumed that you think Hopkins will have a greater impact on Schaub in his rookie year than Jones had on Ryan in his second year. But yeah, we will see. I hope there is no buck passing.

I did no such thing. You should reread my original post on this that started this quoting tree. Here is the relevant part: He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ. In fact, I made it a point to show the numbers the year before Julio was there, his rookie year, and his 2nd year. This was in response that AJ will likely be a Texan for at least 3 years suggesting that it may be at least 3 years before you start seeing a return on Hopkins. I was pointing out in a VERY similar situation, Julio was able to put up numbers in his 2nd year despite target hog Roddy still being there. Thus, I think Hopkins is capable of doing the same (i.e., put up starting fantasy WR numbers in his 2nd year). To be clear, I'm not expecting Hopkins to put up all-wordly numbers this year. But I do think he'll hit ~100 targets as the #2 WR in that offense. If he does well in that role, I expect that number to go up in 2014 and we'll see a similar shift to more passing in Houston and less rushing by Foster (who will be 28 and likely coming off 4 straight years of big workloads). Again, you should consider rereading my post as it seems you're confusing the point I was making and putting words in my mouth that I never said nor implied.

Ohh, OK. Sorry. I should read better. So Schaub is gonna blow up when he's 33?

 

[gianmarco]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

I didn't even get a chance to mention that you are comparing Julio Jones year N+1 to Hopkins year N. Ryan's attempts actually decreased in Jones' rookie year. I guess it can be left assumed that you think Hopkins will have a greater impact on Schaub in his rookie year than Jones had on Ryan in his second year. But yeah, we will see. I hope there is no buck passing.

I did no such thing. You should reread my original post on this that started this quoting tree. Here is the relevant part: He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ. In fact, I made it a point to show the numbers the year before Julio was there, his rookie year, and his 2nd year. This was in response that AJ will likely be a Texan for at least 3 years suggesting that it may be at least 3 years before you start seeing a return on Hopkins. I was pointing out in a VERY similar situation, Julio was able to put up numbers in his 2nd year despite target hog Roddy still being there. Thus, I think Hopkins is capable of doing the same (i.e., put up starting fantasy WR numbers in his 2nd year). To be clear, I'm not expecting Hopkins to put up all-wordly numbers this year. But I do think he'll hit ~100 targets as the #2 WR in that offense. If he does well in that role, I expect that number to go up in 2014 and we'll see a similar shift to more passing in Houston and less rushing by Foster (who will be 28 and likely coming off 4 straight years of big workloads). Again, you should consider rereading my post as it seems you're confusing the point I was making and putting words in my mouth that I never said nor implied.

Ohh, OK. Sorry. I should read better. So Schaub is gonna blow up when he's 33?

Again, you should read better. Who said Schaub is gonna "blow up"? I simply said that their passing attempts will likely go up. In 2009 he had 583 passing attempts. In 2010 he had 574. While injured in 2011, he had 544 last year in 2012. Why is it such a stretch that his passing attempts go up to accommodate a legit #2 WR? Is that something that is so incredibly difficult to do at the ripe old age of 33?

Oakland was 5th in the NFL last year with 629 passing attempts led by 33 year old Carson Palmer (a guy whose career high was 586 attempts back in Cincinnati)

Philly was 7th in the NFL last year with 618 passing attempts

Ari-freaking-zona was 9th in the NFL with 608 passing attempts led by.......who?

Houston was 18th last year. Are you telling me they have no possibility of bumping up those attempts from 544 to 580-590? I mean, that's all we're talking about here. The #2 WR in Houston has gotten about 70 targets over the last several years. I'm simply saying that Hopkins won't be confined to 70 targets and that the offense can change enough to accommodate him hitting 100 targets and eventually 120-130 targets. This can easily occur by 2014 with a combination of fewer rushes by Foster as he ages (not a stretch), fewer targets to AJ as he ages (again, not a stretch), fewer targets to Daniels as he ages as well and takes a back seat to Hopkins (still, not a stretch)and a modest uptick in passing attempts (540's to 580's). We're not talking about a radical change in their offense where I'm creating an extra 150 passing attempts out of nowhere.

If that means I'm saying Schaub is going to "blow up" at age 33, then ok, that's what I'm saying. It seems like you're just trying to exaggerate what I'm saying just to argue against it. It's not necessary. If you don't think Houston and/or Schaub can find a few more targets to satisfy their 1st round WR and think they will be stuck perpetually in their current situation, then that's fine. I pointed out Atlanta because, at a glance, it didn't look like an offense that could support two very relevant fantasy WRs when he first arrived and, in 2 short years, had two fantasy WR1s on the team. I don't think it's that far-fetched for Houston to do the same even though Matt Schaub isn't Matt Ryan. Of course, that's because I think Schaub is gonna "blow up".

 

[MoveToSkypager]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it. Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement). As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

I didn't even get a chance to mention that you are comparing Julio Jones year N+1 to Hopkins year N. Ryan's attempts actually decreased in Jones' rookie year. I guess it can be left assumed that you think Hopkins will have a greater impact on Schaub in his rookie year than Jones had on Ryan in his second year. But yeah, we will see. I hope there is no buck passing.

I did no such thing. You should reread my original post on this that started this quoting tree. Here is the relevant part: He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ. In fact, I made it a point to show the numbers the year before Julio was there, his rookie year, and his 2nd year. This was in response that AJ will likely be a Texan for at least 3 years suggesting that it may be at least 3 years before you start seeing a return on Hopkins. I was pointing out in a VERY similar situation, Julio was able to put up numbers in his 2nd year despite target hog Roddy still being there. Thus, I think Hopkins is capable of doing the same (i.e., put up starting fantasy WR numbers in his 2nd year). To be clear, I'm not expecting Hopkins to put up all-wordly numbers this year. But I do think he'll hit ~100 targets as the #2 WR in that offense. If he does well in that role, I expect that number to go up in 2014 and we'll see a similar shift to more passing in Houston and less rushing by Foster (who will be 28 and likely coming off 4 straight years of big workloads). Again, you should consider rereading my post as it seems you're confusing the point I was making and putting words in my mouth that I never said nor implied.

Ohh, OK. Sorry. I should read better. So Schaub is gonna blow up when he's 33?

Again, you should read better. Who said Schaub is gonna "blow up"? I simply said that their passing attempts will likely go up. In 2009 he had 583 passing attempts. In 2010 he had 574. While injured in 2011, he had 544 last year in 2012. Why is it such a stretch that his passing attempts go up to accommodate a legit #2 WR? Is that something that is so incredibly difficult to do at the ripe old age of 33? Oakland was 5th in the NFL last year with 629 passing attempts led by 33 year old Carson Palmer (a guy whose career high was 586 attempts back in Cincinnati)Philly was 7th in the NFL last year with 618 passing attemptsAri-freaking-zona was 9th in the NFL with 608 passing attempts led by.......who? Houston was 18th last year. Are you telling me they have no possibility of bumping up those attempts from 544 to 580-590? I mean, that's all we're talking about here. The #2 WR in Houston has gotten about 70 targets over the last several years. I'm simply saying that Hopkins won't be confined to 70 targets and that the offense can change enough to accommodate him hitting 100 targets and eventually 120-130 targets. This can easily occur by 2014 with a combination of fewer rushes by Foster as he ages (not a stretch), fewer targets to AJ as he ages (again, not a stretch), fewer targets to Daniels as he ages as well and takes a back seat to Hopkins (still, not a stretch)and a modest uptick in passing attempts (540's to 580's). We're not talking about a radical change in their offense where I'm creating an extra 150 passing attempts out of nowhere. If that means I'm saying Schaub is going to "blow up" at age 33, then ok, that's what I'm saying. It seems like you're just trying to exaggerate what I'm saying just to argue against it. It's not necessary. If you don't think Houston and/or Schaub can find a few more targets to satisfy their 1st round WR and think they will be stuck perpetually in their current situation, then that's fine. I pointed out Atlanta because, at a glance, it didn't look like an offense that could support two very relevant fantasy WRs when he first arrived and, in 2 short years, had two fantasy WR1s on the team. I don't think it's that far-fetched for Houston to do the same even though Matt Schaub isn't Matt Ryan. Of course, that's because I think Schaub is gonna "blow up".

You could have just said yes.

 

[gianmarco]

I think you had a good post. The error I see is that you attribute Atlanta's increase in passing to Julio Jones and not Matt Ryan. Because of the differences between Ryan and Schaub in age and experience, these situations are not as analogous as you want them to be. Matt Schaub will be 32 with 81 career starts when Hopkins first takes the field. It's safe to see he is more or less a finished product. However Ryan was 26 and started only 44 games when Jones first played. Ryan got off to a great start and got even better. It was obvious at the time that he was expected to improve. The same can't be said for Schaub presently. I think the increase of Atlanta's dependence on the passing game had a few factors, and only 1 of which was Julio Jones. A larger one was of course that Ryan was becoming an excellent QB and giving him the ball more to make more plays made the most sense. I think this makes up for the fact that they have the same first name/astrological sign/favorite food.Did you disregard this factor, or did you not consider it at all?

Of course, the team is going to integrate Hopkins into the gameplan. They clearly think he's a good player. I'm not sure this is the comparison you should make.

I considered it and certainly didn't disregard it.

Matt Ryan has been in the league for 5 years. He had 430-450 attempts his first 2 years. He had 566 and 571 his next 2 years. He then had 615 attempts last year. I don't think Ryan needed 5 years to finally reach his full potential. I think his 3rd and 4th years, his comp % was already over 60, his QB rating over 90, and he had already thrown for 28 and 29 TDs respectively. That jump in the 5th year, while not huge, was most likely attributed to the addition of Julio than Ryan continuing some kind of trend upward. Of course they kind of go hand in hand, but if Julio isn't in town and they still only had Roddy/Gonzo and junk, I don't think Ryan is flinging the ball 615+ times over the course. In fact, I'd actually rank Turner's decline as 2nd in terms of reasons why their passing attempts increased (Julio's presence, Turner's decline, Ryan's improvement).

As for Matt Schaub, he had 574 attempts and 583 attempts in 2009 and 2010. He was hurt in 2011, and in 2012, he was down to 544. Schaub may be a "finished product", but it doesn't mean he's not capable of increasing his attempts. Again, I think a big reason for the decline in passing numbers over the last 2 years has been the emergence of Foster combined with a continued lack of a receiving option after AJ and Daniels. With Foster's heavy workloads over the last 3 years and their seeming committal to getting a new target in the passing game, I suspect a shift to more passing is in order. I don't think Schaub's 32 years of age prohibits that.

It was one or the other. You didn't mention it at all. You also can't name a single QB besides players like Steve Buerlein and Kerry Collins that had an increase in attempts this late in his career, that is unless you think Schaub fits the Drew Brees/Tom Brady mold. And you think this is all because of Hopkins, who isn't even the best WR prospect in an unimpressive skill position class. You give this guy a huge amount of credit.

I guess I don't find it as unimpressive as you. And yes, I'm giving Hopkins that much credit. We'll see, I suppose.

I didn't even get a chance to mention that you are comparing Julio Jones year N+1 to Hopkins year N. Ryan's attempts actually decreased in Jones' rookie year. I guess it can be left assumed that you think Hopkins will have a greater impact on Schaub in his rookie year than Jones had on Ryan in his second year. But yeah, we will see. I hope there is no buck passing.

I did no such thing. You should reread my original post on this that started this quoting tree. Here is the relevant part:

He won't be the #1 WR this year, but virtually no WRs come in and become the #1 WR in their rookie year (even guys like Julio or Dez or D. Thomas). But you could see what Julio was capable of after his rookie year despite playing alongside a WR that got 191 targets (holy cow) and knew he was going to get his. And he did in his 2nd year. If Hopkins is the real deal, he'll be commanding targets by his 2nd year when Houston adjusts their offense to get him the ball along with AJ.

In fact, I made it a point to show the numbers the year before Julio was there, his rookie year, and his 2nd year. This was in response that AJ will likely be a Texan for at least 3 years suggesting that it may be at least 3 years before you start seeing a return on Hopkins. I was pointing out in a VERY similar situation, Julio was able to put up numbers in his 2nd year despite target hog Roddy still being there. Thus, I think Hopkins is capable of doing the same (i.e., put up starting fantasy WR numbers in his 2nd year).

To be clear, I'm not expecting Hopkins to put up all-wordly numbers this year. But I do think he'll hit ~100 targets as the #2 WR in that offense. If he does well in that role, I expect that number to go up in 2014 and we'll see a similar shift to more passing in Houston and less rushing by Foster (who will be 28 and likely coming off 4 straight years of big workloads).

Again, you should consider rereading my post as it seems you're confusing the point I was making and putting words in my mouth that I never said nor implied.

Ohh, OK. Sorry. I should read better. So Schaub is gonna blow up when he's 33?

Again, you should read better. Who said Schaub is gonna "blow up"? I simply said that their passing attempts will likely go up. In 2009 he had 583 passing attempts. In 2010 he had 574. While injured in 2011, he had 544 last year in 2012. Why is it such a stretch that his passing attempts go up to accommodate a legit #2 WR? Is that something that is so incredibly difficult to do at the ripe old age of 33?

Oakland was 5th in the NFL last year with 629 passing attempts led by 33 year old Carson Palmer (a guy whose career high was 586 attempts back in Cincinnati)

Philly was 7th in the NFL last year with 618 passing attempts

Ari-freaking-zona was 9th in the NFL with 608 passing attempts led by.......who?

Houston was 18th last year. Are you telling me they have no possibility of bumping up those attempts from 544 to 580-590? I mean, that's all we're talking about here. The #2 WR in Houston has gotten about 70 targets over the last several years. I'm simply saying that Hopkins won't be confined to 70 targets and that the offense can change enough to accommodate him hitting 100 targets and eventually 120-130 targets. This can easily occur by 2014 with a combination of fewer rushes by Foster as he ages (not a stretch), fewer targets to AJ as he ages (again, not a stretch), fewer targets to Daniels as he ages as well and takes a back seat to Hopkins (still, not a stretch)and a modest uptick in passing attempts (540's to 580's). We're not talking about a radical change in their offense where I'm creating an extra 150 passing attempts out of nowhere.

If that means I'm saying Schaub is going to "blow up" at age 33, then ok, that's what I'm saying. It seems like you're just trying to exaggerate what I'm saying just to argue against it. It's not necessary. If you don't think Houston and/or Schaub can find a few more targets to satisfy their 1st round WR and think they will be stuck perpetually in their current situation, then that's fine. I pointed out Atlanta because, at a glance, it didn't look like an offense that could support two very relevant fantasy WRs when he first arrived and, in 2 short years, had two fantasy WR1s on the team. I don't think it's that far-fetched for Houston to do the same even though Matt Schaub isn't Matt Ryan. Of course, that's because I think Schaub is gonna "blow up".

You could have just said yes.

I also could have just ignored you since you seemed more interested in being sarcastic and exaggerating than actually discussing why you disagree. But, since you at least started with some discussion, I figured I'd at least try to respond and give reasons why.

No, I don't think Schaub is going to blow up. I'm not trying to predict any changes in his yards/attempt, TDs, completion %, QB rating, etc. I do think he will likely pass ~3 more times/game over the next 2 years to get his season totals from the 540's to the 580's. That's all. That's more than enough for Hopkins to become very fantasy relevant in his 2nd year.

I have no problem with someone disagreeing with my viewpoint, especially if there's some good reasoning behind it. I also have no problem not responding any further if you choose to continue with just being witty so that's up to you.

One last point on Schaub. While not the greatest metric, the guy is 11th all time in passer rating. He's also tied for 11th in career yards per pass attempt. Other than Pennington, that list is a pretty strong indicator of QB talent. I don't think Schaub is at their level overall, but I also don't think he's a slouch and is highly underrated as an NFL QB. Expecting him to pass some more is not outside of his talent level.