WR Dearth in NFL (1 Viewer)

[Beaumont]

Caveat: I play in deep leagues for the most part, 16 or 32 teams, so the top 90 WR all have value.

I have read that RBs are easy to replace in the NFL. I have read the same thing about WRs, but find myself in disagreement. I have come to think there is a serious lack of WR in the league based on reviewing team message boards and 1/2 of them know they need a WR and want to sign Berrian/Hackett

Following are teams that need to acquire/develop at least one new starter, and perhaps more:

Team (and who needs replacin', due to talent or circumstance)

Buff (Price/Josh Reed)

Car (Colbert/Carter)

Cle (Joe J)

Chi (maybe both, at least Mush)

Den (maybe Walker)

Min (Wade/Williamson)

KC (Kennison/Parker)

NE (Stallworth)

NO (Patten/Henderson)

Mia (Booker)

Oak (Porter)

SF (DJax/Battle)

Sea (Branch)

Tenn (Gage)

I count 15 or so starting WR jobs up for grabs. I think Walker/Porter/Hackett/Berrian/Stallworth likely take 5 of these 15 or so jobs. That leaves 9-11 other 2008 starting WR jobs out there (with top 75 potential). Now, given that this is a poor FA WR group, I have a few hypothesis:

1) Some of the UFA WR out there are going to make a much bigger splash than people think. Not just Berrian and Hackett. Maybe Bryant Johnson, Andre Davis, Justin Gage or Ernest Wilford. I dont know who. But some who may not have historically demonstrated rock solid starting talent may be given a second chance due to the lack of starting quality WR. It will not shock me if some of the UFA WR who have been tossed on the trash heap rise up to take a starter job when no one thought they would simply because there is no one else out there to do it. Someone like Keary Colbert. A player like Antonio Bryant may sign a contract and have instant value in deep leagues. I would love to have the inside scoop to see who is well regarded in the NFL but has not statistically yielded results. The flip side to this is there are going to be a few vets who we think are going to be replaced who are not going to be replaced (Troy Williamson?)

2) Some of the young players that have been discounted like Chad Jackson, Meachem and Jarrett and whoever will have a lot more 2008 playing time than people think -- maybe out of necessity. Maybe a Jeff Webb. Who knows.

3) There are going to be some rookie WR handed starting jobs immediately. Maybe before they are ready for it.

At least these thoughts are rambling in my head ...

For your convenience, pasted from another thread started by Andy Dufrene...

Wide Receivers

1. Randy Moss N.E. Patriots (making an assumption here)

2. Bernard Berrian Chicago

3. Andre Davis Houston

4. Jerry Porter Oakland

5. Devery Henderson New Orleans

6. Keary Colbert Carolina

7. Bryant Johnson Arizona

8. Drew Carter Carolina

9. David Patten New Orleans

10. Ernest Wilford Jacksonville

11. Samie Parker Kansas City

12. D.J. Hackett Seattle

13. Jabar Gaffney N.E. Patriots

14. Justin Gage Tennessee

15. Robert Ferguson Minnesota

16. Antonio Chatman Cincinnati

17. Devard Darling Baltimore

18. Tim Dwight Oakland

19. Troy Walters Detroit

20. Tim Carter Cleveland

From nfldraftguys.com

Sean Baca's senior WR draft prospect rankings:

1 Early Doucet LSU 6-1/210

2 Limas Sweed Texas 6-5/215

3 Keenan Burton Kentucky 6-2/195

4 Adarius Bowman OK State 6-4/215

5 Justin Harper Virginia Tech 6-3/210

Sean Baca's WR undergrad draft prospect rankings:

1 DeSean Jackson California 6-0/172

2 Malcolm Kelly Oklahoma 6-4/217

3 Earl Bennett Vanderbilt 6-1/202

4 Mario Manningham Michigan 6-0/186

5 Davone Bess Hawaii 5-11/190

 

[sheerterror]

 

[FUBAR]

Nothing to share, but I agree. Good WRs are harder to find than good RBs - and the elite tend to stay on top.

 

[The Shizzle]

Dearth looks like death. My .02

 

[pettifogger]

Thanks for the post. It looks to me that there are a half dozen guys at the top of your list worth paying a premium to (some of whom will be resigned by their own teams, won't they?) and the rest are not worth investing big free agent money in, better to draft and build.

 

[Beaumont]

Thanks for the post. It looks to me that there are a half dozen guys at the top of your list worth paying a premium to (some of whom will be resigned by their own teams, won't they?) and the rest are not worth investing big free agent money in, better to draft and build.

Good time to be a FA WR no doubt ...

 

[Bri]

said something similar in regards to Gaffney staying or walking, in another thread.

There's alot of good young talent, moreso than I can recall in a while. There's alot of old WRs. There's not much in between. IMO That's where the gap is.

Andre Davis, David Patten, Ike Hilliard, Joe Jurevicius, some of those might have been out of the league in other eras but they keep finding a home and getting key playing time.

Dynasty folks always think of potential, hat gets results lost around here sometimes.

When there are guys like Santana Moss, Sinorice Moss, Troy Williamson, Chad Jackson, Tim Carter, San Fran guy on STL, Derrick Hamilton(still in the league BTW), Courtney Roby, Guy with name R from SF went to SD, Brandon Lloyd etc(long long list) that don't necessarily produce to their draft spot or just flat out don't get it done or get hurt all the time or....the vets above "just get it done" while these guys are listenning to the violins play.

There's been tons of busts over the history of the NFL. These aren't necessarily busts but more like teases that hold roster spots and team's plans up.

 

[FantasyTrader]

Are we really that shocked? I don't think we're unearthing something that is specific to this year. The top 64 wide receivers in the league cover EVERY wide receiver that will see a majority of snaps on a given NFL Sunday. It stands to reason that of the bottom 16 NFL offenses, the vast majority have a #2 WR that needs serious help to post fantasy relevant stats. That's not even getting us through the top 50. You're talking about a league that goes 90 players deep!? Yeah - you're gonna reach dearth. Whether you're talking about '07, '06 or 1986.

 

[Bri]

The top 64 wide receivers in the league cover EVERY wide receiver that will see a majority of snaps on a given NFL Sunday.

no it doesn't

 

[FantasyTrader]

The top 64 wide receivers in the league cover EVERY wide receiver that will see a majority of snaps on a given NFL Sunday.

no it doesn't

Okay, "every" is a strong word. Technically, you're right - with some teams running a lot of 3 wide and with injuries over the course of the year - sure, you get to some number more than 64. The point is still valid.

 

[3nOut]

This is why I tend to hold off on WRs in my fantsay draft. After the top 6-7 (or so), they are all pretty much a dime a dozen.

 

[Reaper]

Jets desperately need a WR with Size, and to develop behind Coles...

If this Coles thing blows up and he leaves then they are REALLY DESPERATE.

I'm mixed if they should give Coles more money with 2 years left or just sign one of these Fa's themselves and then draft a guy.

 

[Beaumont]

Jets desperately need a WR with Size, and to develop behind Coles...If this Coles thing blows up and he leaves then they are REALLY DESPERATE.I'm mixed if they should give Coles more money with 2 years left or just sign one of these Fa's themselves and then draft a guy.

I hesitated to include them in the list, but a Coles holdout and/or continuing medical problems places them darn close to being on this list ... beyond their two starters they are thin with Smith/Stucki (meh)

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

First off, nicely formed arguments here and well posted and articulated. Let's start with where I agree:

Caveat: I play in deep leagues for the most part, 16 or 32 teams, so the top 90 WR all have value.I have read that RBs are easy to replace in the NFL. I have read the same thing about WRs, but find myself in disagreement. I have come to think there is a serious lack of WR in the league based on reviewing team message boards and 1/2 of them know they need a WR and want to sign Berrian/Hackett

I agree that there isn't enough WR tallent to go around. That's a fact, but I don't think it is any different than it has been in the past. Several teams are always looking for better WRs, and now that the league has more favorable rules that lend itself towards more passing, good WRs are worth more.

Following are teams that need to acquire/develop at least one new starter, and perhaps more:Team (and who needs replacin', due to talent or circumstance)Buff (Price/Josh Reed)Car (Colbert/Carter)Cle (Joe J)Chi (maybe both, at least Mush)Den (maybe Walker)Min (Wade/Williamson)KC (Kennison/Parker)NE (Stallworth)NO (Patten/Henderson)Mia (Booker)Oak (Porter)SF (DJax/Battle)Sea (Branch)Tenn (Gage)

Disagree on some, not all. I don't believe SF will be making changes at both starters, for example. Joe J. is serviceable in CLE. Porter doesn't need to go in OAK, but he does need a better QB.Moving on....

I count 15 or so starting WR jobs up for grabs. I think Walker/Porter/Hackett/Berrian/Stallworth likely take 5 of these 15 or so jobs. That leaves 9-11 other 2008 starting WR jobs out there (with top 75 potential).

Here's where I start to agree and disagree at once. I can see where there are 15 (or more) spots that need an upgrade league-wide. The premise you have is that they won't be filled by already rostered players. You do, however, touch on this later:

Now, given that this is a poor FA WR group, I have a few hypothesis:1) Some of the UFA WR out there are going to make a much bigger splash than people think. Not just Berrian and Hackett. Maybe Bryant Johnson, Andre Davis, Justin Gage or Ernest Wilford. I dont know who. But some who may not have historically demonstrated rock solid starting talent may be given a second chance due to the lack of starting quality WR. It will not shock me if some of the UFA WR who have been tossed on the trash heap rise up to take a starter job when no one thought they would simply because there is no one else out there to do it. Someone like Keary Colbert. A player like Antonio Bryant may sign a contract and have instant value in deep leagues. I would love to have the inside scoop to see who is well regarded in the NFL but has not statistically yielded results. The flip side to this is there are going to be a few vets who we think are going to be replaced who are not going to be replaced (Troy Williamson?)2) Some of the young players that have been discounted like Chad Jackson, Meachem and Jarrett and whoever will have a lot more 2008 playing time than people think -- maybe out of necessity. Maybe a Jeff Webb. Who knows.

Now we're back to agreeing more. Meachem and Jarrett should contend for starters, and the 2nd year rookies that didn't make a big splash in Year 1 will be given chances in August to step up.

3) There are going to be some rookie WR handed starting jobs immediately. Maybe before they are ready for it.At least these thoughts are rambling in my head ...

Rookies are tough to throw in, not just due to the learning curve but also with the much longer schedule. Even Bowe hit the rookie wall.Something to consider - go back and look at the last two NFL drafts and find the names of WRs that were drafted but haven't made an impact yet. Focus on Rounds 4 and higher and you might see some good prospects.Good thoughts, one and all.

 

[Arm Chair Express]

Dearth looks like death. My .02

"Dearth Vader" Dark Lord of the Sith.Would make for a fun nickname around here.

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

I don't know if James Dearth is still in the NFL...

 

[Beaumont]

Don't agree with this ... claims its turning into a buyer's market.

Buyer's market for crap maybe ...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story;jsessionid=5...mp;confirm=true

 

[FantasyTrader]

Don't agree with this ... claims its turning into a buyer's market.

Buyer's market for crap maybe ...

http://www.nfl.com/news/story;jsessionid=5...mp;confirm=true

I don't know. Several names cited in that article range from roster worthy to downright studs.

 

[Rev]

12 points for using the word dearth in a post. Well done.

 

[Beaumont]

Gage and Davis down, both reportedly signing multi year deals ...

 

[Beaumont]

Reported:

Davis 4 years, 16M, $8m guaranteed ...

Gage 4 years, 14M, $6.5m guaranteed ...

 

[Beaumont]

Jerry Porter, a six-year, $30 million contract, with $10 million guaranteed

 

[JohnnyU]

12 points for using the word dearth in a post. Well done.

I thought someone died.

 

[Beaumont]

Ernest Wilford, a four-year deal worth $13 million with a $6 million signing bonus

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

WR Dearth

(Okay, he's a TE, but these are the jokes, people.... )

 

[Beaumont]

Berrian, a six-year, $42 million contract, with a $16 million signing bonus. He'll get $23 million in the first three years.

Henderson, a one-year, $2 million contract.

 

[Beaumont]

Keary Colbert, a three-year, $7.2 million contract, including a $2.5 million signing bonus

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Keary Colbert, a three-year, $7.2 million contract, including a $2.5 million signing bonus

If you're going to post these, please at least say which team he signs for..... TIA.

 

[Beaumont]

Keary Colbert, a three-year, $7.2 million contract, including a $2.5 million signing bonus

If you're going to post these, please at least say which team he signs for..... TIA.

I figured everyone knew, I was just tracking salaries for purposes of my thoughts above ...Wilford to Mia, Porter to Jax, Colbert to Den, Berrian to Min, Henderson stays with Saints ...ETA: Colbert just got a little more intriguing, as did Wilford. I think my hypothesis is starting to shape up ... ETA2: Donte Stallworth's contract with the Browns is reported as a 7 year deal of $35 million, with $10 million guaranteed.

 

[Beaumont]

There is basically Bryant Johnson, DJ Hackett and Javon Walker left with Chi, KC, Buff, Oak, TB and Sea basically jonsing for some WR talent ... I am still not counting Moss.

Additional hypothesis out of left field: We see some trades of players like Matt Jones and Ashley Lelie and they have renewed hope for fantasy consideration ...

 

[Beaumont]

Bryant Johnson signs with Buff.

Fans in Chi, KC, TB, Sea and Oak are starting to sweat a bit about their WR situation ...

 

[Beaumont]

Marty Booker is still out there. As are Javon Walker, Kennison, Carter and Hackett.

Drew Carter is reportedly meeting with Oak tomorrow ...

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Bryant Johnson signs with Buff.Fans in Chi, KC, TB, Sea and Oak are starting to sweat a bit about their WR situation ...

Why is Seattle sweating?Engram and Burleson aren't that bad, and Obomanu / Courtney Taylor (and Logan Payne) could work their way in as well. No, I didn't overlook Branch - I figure him as a Terry Glenn for 08.

 

[Beaumont]

Bryant Johnson signs with Buff.Fans in Chi, KC, TB, Sea and Oak are starting to sweat a bit about their WR situation ...

Why is Seattle sweating?Engram and Burleson aren't that bad, and Obomanu / Courtney Taylor (and Logan Payne) could work their way in as well. No, I didn't overlook Branch - I figure him as a Terry Glenn for 08.

I would think TB would feel more secure than Sea. Either way, if I am TB and Sea I think I recognize the need for a another starting level WR.I see justification for desperation in this approximate order, with the top 3 being the most obviously "should be desperate" for WR (and, coincidentally?, with serious QB performance issues for 2008):ChiOakKCSeaTB

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Bryant Johnson signs with Buff.Fans in Chi, KC, TB, Sea and Oak are starting to sweat a bit about their WR situation ...

Why is Seattle sweating?Engram and Burleson aren't that bad, and Obomanu / Courtney Taylor (and Logan Payne) could work their way in as well. No, I didn't overlook Branch - I figure him as a Terry Glenn for 08.

I would think TB would feel more securer than Sea. Either way, if I am TB and Sea I think I recognize the need for a another starting level WR.I see justification for desperation in this approximate order, with the top 3 being the most obviously "should be desperate" for WR (and, coincidentally?, with serious QB performance issues for 2008):ChiOakKCSeaTB

I'll give you most of that, but there are some younger candidates on those rosters that could be sleepers. CHI - Mark Bradley and Devin Hester (especially if you also get KR/PR scoring).OAK - Johnny Lee HigginsKC - Jeff WebbSEA - names I mentioned (Payne, Taylor, Obomanu)TB - Go fish - Ok, maybe Michael ClaytonIs there room for improvement? Certainly. But some teams really do like their already rostered options.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Bryant Johnson signs with Buff.Fans in Chi, KC, TB, Sea and Oak are starting to sweat a bit about their WR situation ...

Why is Seattle sweating?Engram and Burleson aren't that bad, and Obomanu / Courtney Taylor (and Logan Payne) could work their way in as well. No, I didn't overlook Branch - I figure him as a Terry Glenn for 08.

I would think TB would feel more securer than Sea. Either way, if I am TB and Sea I think I recognize the need for a another starting level WR.I see justification for desperation in this approximate order, with the top 3 being the most obviously "should be desperate" for WR (and, coincidentally?, with serious QB performance issues for 2008):ChiOakKCSeaTB

I'll give you most of that, but there are some younger candidates on those rosters that could be sleepers. CHI - Mark Bradley and Devin Hester (especially if you also get KR/PR scoring).OAK - Johnny Lee HigginsKC - Jeff WebbSEA - names I mentioned (Payne, Taylor, Obomanu)TB - Go fish - Ok, maybe Michael ClaytonIs there room for improvement? Certainly. But some teams really do like their already rostered options.

Almost forgot on SEA - if they get Crumpler or a capable TE of any kind, that will certainly help matters.

 

[Beaumont]

Bryant Johnson signs with Buff.Fans in Chi, KC, TB, Sea and Oak are starting to sweat a bit about their WR situation ...

Why is Seattle sweating?Engram and Burleson aren't that bad, and Obomanu / Courtney Taylor (and Logan Payne) could work their way in as well. No, I didn't overlook Branch - I figure him as a Terry Glenn for 08.

I would think TB would feel more securer than Sea. Either way, if I am TB and Sea I think I recognize the need for a another starting level WR.I see justification for desperation in this approximate order, with the top 3 being the most obviously "should be desperate" for WR (and, coincidentally?, with serious QB performance issues for 2008):ChiOakKCSeaTB

I'll give you most of that, but there are some younger candidates on those rosters that could be sleepers. CHI - Mark Bradley and Devin Hester (especially if you also get KR/PR scoring).OAK - Johnny Lee HigginsKC - Jeff WebbSEA - names I mentioned (Payne, Taylor, Obomanu)TB - Go fish - Ok, maybe Michael ClaytonIs there room for improvement? Certainly. But some teams really do like their already rostered options.

We are really on the same page. I mean, as a KC fan is it possible Jeff Webb is all that and the coaches see it and I have just kinda missed it? Maybe. But as a fan, if you tell me we are going into the season with Webb as No. 2 and god knows who maybe Sippio in the slot I call foul ... and cry a lot.

 

[Beaumont]

Looks like Bryant is not quite a done deal. Visiting Wash. David Patton was re-signed by Nola.

ETA: I could be wrong but I think I saw Moss is officially re-signed.

 

[Beaumont]

Gaffney back to NE for 1 year/$2m