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WR depth is exceptionally weak this year (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter carverlee
- Start date
I take that and raise you Running backs. I agree on paper, based on experience..proven experience, the WR position lack depth. But it is a whole lot worse with RB's. Plus, most teams have two RBs splitting carries. So, it is hard finding those teams that devote themselves to two running backs. AND, with WRs, there are a lot of young talent that you can draft as depth....ALOT! Some will live up to the hype, some won't. But they are there. The same can't be said for running backs. So in terms of FF, it is still smart to get your 2 starting runningbacks in within the first 3 rounds.
Frank Black
Footballguy
I think the main points here are that WR depth this season may not be as good as we thought; however, WR depth this season is better than RB depth. The dropoff at RB is still greater than the dropoff at WR.
need2know
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
A+. WR is deep crowd seem to be taking projected numbers as gospel. I look at the 2nd tier WRs and just see big, bold RISK. I like Cobb, but I could honestly see him disappoint. Most guys in that tier I view similarly.
My favorite teams so far have a stud top 5 RB, a stud WR (Dez, Green, Julio, D Thomas, Marshall) and a solid WR2 (Cruz, Fitzgerald, Andre). Throw a bunch of RB2s at the wall and see who sticks, followed by a bunch of WR3s.
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I'm drafting a RB in the first round. After that, I'm going after a stud WR like A.J. Green or Dez Bryant.
Read these articles. It will change your opinion about the "depth of WR" this year.
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1031/blowing-up-the-myth-of-wide-receiver-depth
http://lateroundqb.com/understanding-wide-receiver-volatility/
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1043/backs-receivers-and-year-to-year-volatility
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1046/no-excuses-draft-like-a-champion
Read these articles. It will change your opinion about the "depth of WR" this year.
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1031/blowing-up-the-myth-of-wide-receiver-depth
http://lateroundqb.com/understanding-wide-receiver-volatility/
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1043/backs-receivers-and-year-to-year-volatility
https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/1046/no-excuses-draft-like-a-champion
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MAC_32
Footballguy
It's not second round wr vs later round wrs. Have to account for rbs too. I think a WR corps can be built in rounds 3, 4, and a lot of darts later. I don't feel good about any rbs after round two.
Get my two rbs and hope they stay healthy, put priority on rbs with quality cuffs.
Get my two rbs and hope they stay healthy, put priority on rbs with quality cuffs.
Big disagreement here. I hate the 2nd round RBs (DMC, Murray, etc.) and love the 3rd+ guys. Miller/Wilson have been climbing to early 3rd lately, which is too steep for me, but Bell in 4th, Bernard/Vereen in late 5th are very good guys to round out an RB squad, assuming you have an RB1.
My favorite team so far went Calvin/Dez from 6 spot. Wilson/Bell/Vereen/Bernard has the upside to crush anyone who went RB/RB and won't have anything on me at WR.
steveski
Footballguy
zamboni
Footballguy
As mentioned, I see it more of the opposite - there's plenty of depth in WRs. While the top tier is small, you can still get a bunch of potentially quality guys much later, and of course, in waivers once the season hits.
Or as Scooby said earlier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpsEdM74maA
Or as Scooby said earlier: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tpsEdM74maA
carverlee
Footballguy
Thank you. I didn't mean overall depth, I meant WR1 depth but didn't specify that. My bad.
Last season, coming in, elite RB's were very scarce. There was Foster, McCoy, Rice, followed by a bunch of what-ifs or could-bes. The WR's however seemed to go 10-12 deep, as there always seems to be.
This season I'd gladly take 1 of any 10 RB's as my RB1 and feel great about it. At WR, however, there's many I LIKE, but I'm just not seeing more than 3-5 can't miss elite receivers that I would feel great building around this year.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Well, this clarification makes more sense in regards to the first post, but while you may not feel like the WR1's are as cut and dry as the RBs, part of what helps that this year is because of how deep WR is overall. A lot of the WR3's have a great shot at finishing WR2, and WR2's finishing as WR1's, IMO. Moreso than I can ever remember.carverlee said:
My thoughts on the WR1's differs from you though. I see basically all of those guys as safe picks. They might not finish as WR1's because like I said the group behind them is very good as well, but those who are being drafted as WR1's right now wont finish far outside that. Really, Fitz and Cobb are the only ones I dont like much.
This is a great point. Even a few of WR4's in the 9-11th round ADP have a good shot at low WR2 numbers (G. Tate/E.Sanders/C.Givens/Mi.Floyd/J.Blackmon), etc. Good year for sloughing off and getting a basket of WRs 2-3 rounds later and betting 1-2 pop up to a tier or two higher than where they are being drafted.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
I don't think it's exceptionally weak, but it's been somewhat weakened (particularly in the later rounds) by the loss of Harvin, Maclin, DAlexander, Floyd, etc.
In the mocks I've been doing, I am seeing what the op is seeing and like my teams a lot better if I have 2 stud WRs early or WR + Graham. That being said, I also agree that there are some great WR3s to target late too, like Mike Williams and Chris Givens, as others mentioned. In some cases, if I can get something like Dez/Graham/Manning I like my team going full upside down draft, as there are some mid-round RBs dropping into good value ranges.
Zow
Footballguy
I agree with Dodds to target Romo or Wilson at QB12 in the 5th or 6th.
WR is tough because it's far more erratic and the guys in the 10-30 range are some different names than we are used to. Regardless, I think you still gotta grab RB twice in the top three rounds... and I'm also a proponent of taking Jimmy Graham early.
Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
Adam Harstad
Moderator
We had a staff mock on Wednesday. 12 teams, no PPR, start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (RB/WR/TE). I opened up the draft RB-RB-RB, and took a QB in the 6th for good measure. My final WR corps was Hakeem Nicks, Jordy Nelson, Miles Austin, Lance Moore, Justin Blackmon, Stephen Hill, Jeremy Kerley, and Andre Roberts. That is INSANE depth. It's hard to even comprehend spending each of my first three draft picks on an RB and still being able to start Nicks, Nelson, and Austin on a weekly basis (with the possibility of using Lance Moore as a flex).
WR is just stupid deep this year. When I was busy drafting Hakeem Nicks and Jordy Nelson, other teams were taking Eddie Lacy and Ryan Matthews. When I was taking Miles Austin and Lance Moore, other teams were taking BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mark Ingram. When I was taking Hill and Kerley, other teams were taking Joique Bell and Marcel Reece.
WR is just stupid deep this year. When I was busy drafting Hakeem Nicks and Jordy Nelson, other teams were taking Eddie Lacy and Ryan Matthews. When I was taking Miles Austin and Lance Moore, other teams were taking BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Mark Ingram. When I was taking Hill and Kerley, other teams were taking Joique Bell and Marcel Reece.
by_the_sea_wannabe
:sj:
his point and I agree with him is that the depth at the top is shallow. the wr2/3 depth is huge though
Adam Harstad
Moderator
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Those RB value picks and sleepers have their supporters too.
I have a 2qb, 2te, 4wr, 2rb ppr league and the wr well dried up much faster. I was taking Tate and Givens with better RB on the board and regretted it. Bernard and Ivory were still on the board in the 13th, which are RB3s at least.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Gio Bernard round 13? That is a lot of law firm fans.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Rick James
Footballguy
That's not exactly a standard league format. I wouldn't draft RBs very high in that league either.
LionOfGosforth
Footballguy
All well and good on paper but Nicks, Nelson and Austin all have significant injury risk/history. Austin has had major issues in recent years, Nicks the same and Nelson is currently hurt and not absolutely certain to play week 1 though the coach noises are positive. Doesn't seem solid to me though they all have big upside when they're on the field. What RB's did you take 1-2-3?
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Been doing some mock drafts. Here's what I'm typically seeing as best available for each position at the start of round 5..
QB:
Newton
Brady
Ryan
Kaep
Luck
RG3
Romo
Wilson
RB:
Mendenhall
Bernard
Bradshaw
Vereen
D Richardson
Ball
A Brown
Ingram
BJGE
Hillman
WR:
Nicks
Wayne
Garcon
A Brown
S Smith
T Smith
Wallace
Decker
DJax
J Jones
Hilton
Shorts
For my money, I'd much rather take my chances on those WRs/QBs than those RBs. RB is drying up real fast this year. Most of the RBs you're looking at may not even get much playing time. The only sure starter there is Mendenhall, who is in an awful situation that could make even that useless.
QB:
Newton
Brady
Ryan
Kaep
Luck
RG3
Romo
Wilson
RB:
Mendenhall
Bernard
Bradshaw
Vereen
D Richardson
Ball
A Brown
Ingram
BJGE
Hillman
WR:
Nicks
Wayne
Garcon
A Brown
S Smith
T Smith
Wallace
Decker
DJax
J Jones
Hilton
Shorts
For my money, I'd much rather take my chances on those WRs/QBs than those RBs. RB is drying up real fast this year. Most of the RBs you're looking at may not even get much playing time. The only sure starter there is Mendenhall, who is in an awful situation that could make even that useless.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
That's just it, though- most of those WRs aren't "sleepers". Hakeem Nicks and Jordy Nelson are guys who were slam-dunk top-12 receivers going into last season. Nicks was WR8 (in 13 games) in 2010 and WR12 (in 15 games) in 2011 before being slowed by injuries in 2012. Nelson was WR2 in 2011, and was on pace for 1200/11 again in 2012 (would have ranked him about 8th) prior to getting injured in 2012. These are young cornerstone talents with several years of WR1-type production, playing in strong passing offenses with top-level quarterback play. Eddie Lacy is a guy mired in a 3-way competition to start for a team that hasn't produced a 100 yard rusher in 2 years. Ryan Matthews is a guy who finished last season with more broken collarbones than touchdowns, and whose coach has admitted will be mired in an RBBC with a CoP back on a 2-year deal worth less than $2 million per season. This isn't a "some prefer these guys, some prefer those guys" situation, Nelson and Nicks are pretty objectively better talents. You can play that game for Austin and Moore vs. BJGE and Ingram, too.
That's a tough break in your league. I wonder how much the 4 WRs influenced it, or if you just happened to be drafting with guys who loved them some receivers. Still, your league is the exception, not the rule. According to ADP, Gio is going at the 6/7 turn, and Ivory's typically gone a round before that. Tate and Givens, by ADP, are usually going four full rounds later.
Adam Harstad
Moderator
Nicks' and Nelson's injury histories are arguably less concerning than Mathews' and Lacy's. Mathews broke both of his collarbones last season (on two separate hits). Lacy has a fused toe that concerned some teams so much they took him off their board entirely, believing it wasn't a question of if he'd break down, it was a question of when. Austin has some injury flags surrounding his hamstrings, but they've only cost him one stretch of games in the last four years, and whatever red flags surround him are far less concerning than those around BJGE (who finished with just 1200 total yards last year despite his toughest competition being Cedric Peerman). I understand that the guys I drafted fell out of the first three rounds because they have some question marks, but it's not like they have more question marks than the backs that fell out of the first three rounds. Would you feel more comfortable starting Austin and/or Moore on a weekly basis, or BJGE/Ingram?LionOfGosforth said:
In the first three rounds, I took McCoy, Bush, and David Wilson.
