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WR Diontae Johnson, CAR (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I got him in the 7th and 8th rounds of a couple FPC redraft squads two weeks ago. I hope I get to see these teams compete. All my dynasty squads are aligned for success right now but the world is ending. Anyway I need a white star on this guy.
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
Dynasty pass for me at current price. Pittsburgh is one big QB sack away from being in QB pergutory.
This guy has legit talent. The term "slippery" is more than appropriate.
If he plays a healthy year with Big Ben, his value is going to double maybe triple.
Redraft: buy, buy, buy
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
All Big Ben has ever wanted to do is Chuck the ball downfield. The rules are friendlier than ever.
Add Ebron. Go for 5,000 big guy!
Add Ebron. Go for 5,000 big guy!
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Except he's playing WR, on the outside. Not TE or as a big slot as far as I know. If he fails as a WR, they'll try him at TE like Waller. Claypool reminds me much more of a Funchess-type (who some also talked about as a sleeper to be converted to TE eventually) than a future TE.
Claypool projects as a big slot from what I've seen.
Don't think he will be much of a year 1 guy though. I think it's preparation to let Juju walk
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
The offense is closer to the killer bees than I think most people think if Pittsburgh is good at anything it's drafting skill players.
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
Either that or big Ben has been able to make a generation of whiteouts look good.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
I don't see that. Funchess ran a 4.7. Claypool a low 4.4.
Ju Ju is probably gone after this season. He can't play outside and the Steelers know it. He's a product of Big Ben. Once Big Ben is gone the Steelers don't want to be stuck in a spot where they are paying a guy #1 WR $$$ when he's not a #1 WR. If Diontae does what I think he's going to do this year then Ju Ju will probably have a big year playing Robin to Diontae's Batman. Making it next to impossible for the Steelers to afford him.
Watch what Adam Thielen does this year getting pushed outside more. That's a #1 WR. Wins all over the field.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Pettis is a ridiculous comparison.
He flashed his rookie year but last offseason Shanahan said he was fighting for a roster spot and played him in the 4th preseason game while tearing into his effort/work ethic/etc.
If that happens with Diontae then yes there's reason to be concerned
He flashed his rookie year but last offseason Shanahan said he was fighting for a roster spot and played him in the 4th preseason game while tearing into his effort/work ethic/etc.
If that happens with Diontae then yes there's reason to be concerned
The Frankman
Footballguy
Yeah, there's no competition/new coach situation that Johnson has to worry about. He's coming in as the unchallenged #2 receiver this season. Can Washington or Claypool maybe challenge him this pre-season? Doubtful unless Johnson falls off the face of the Earth.KChusker said:
It will be spot on when Tomlin says Johnson is fighting for a roster spot and plays him in the 4th preseason game
That was such a unique and rare situation and from what I saw had more to do with Pettis’s work ethic/being soft than his actual talent level
The Frankman
Footballguy
It should be noted Pettis was challenged by Shanahan hard due to Pettis not being "one of his" and a ton of competition in the SF WR chart. Pettis had a very poor early camp which greatly contributed to this notion and Shanahan never let him out of the doghouse. You can see my posts in that thread as Pettis backer and believer in his talent.
Again, unless Diontae has a terrible camp and Tomlin specially calls him out, it's not that same situation at all.
Again, unless Diontae has a terrible camp and Tomlin specially calls him out, it's not that same situation at all.
Someone cited average separation yards and someone else showed how that stat was used to prop up Pettis.
I am saying Pettis might actually have been good at creating separation. He had a host of character/toughness/work ethic problems that prevented him from getting on the field to do so.
Because of that I think it is really unlikely that any second year WR has a Pettis like decline in value--too strange of a situation to be recreated often
The Frankman
Footballguy
To expand on this topic; Pettis won at the line with elite route running and shiftiness to create separation, basically he was a technician. When your work ethic is questioned/you're dropping balls/get injured/coach doesn't like you it's kinda hard to flash that ability. So far:
- Johnson's work ethic doesn't seem to be in question
- He doesn't have a drop issue
- He doesn't seem injury prone
- His coach doesn't dislike him
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The point is we didn't know Pettis' work ethic was in question this time last year. He was just a young wr coming off a strong rookie year who looked poised to take a leap.
I like Diontae as much as the next guy and just traded for him on my most expensive team. What happened to Pettis is a cautionary tale on what the range of outcomes actually are for any player who has yet to fully prove himself. Its not like the guy wrote a dissertation about it either; he merely connected the two by saying target separation was a talking point for Pettis last year.
Faust
MVP
https://twitter.com/natenfl/status/1275156753043390468?s=21Nate Christian @NateNFL
This is happening
Diontae Johnson vs James Washington
Will do my best to make this thread unbiased, get ready for some stats. Let's look at who's going to be playing next to Juju this year with a healthy Big Ben. #FantasyFootball
https://twitter.com/natenfl/status/1275156789286363136?s=21Who is Player A?
cloppbeast
Footballguy
Try to keep up.KChusker said:
Pettis was brought up because separation yards was cited as a metric to prop him up last year.
I am saying Pettis may actually have been good at getting separation—he just had a host of intangible issues that made him unable to get on the field and do so, and created a drop off really rare for any second year WR who flashed as a rookie (like Pettis did and Diontae did)
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Is Claypool considered to be all that great? Washington put up a very decent season last year in terrible circumstances. So he's got some production, experience and doesn't have the albatross of a lost offseason of OTAs and minicamps that all the rookies have to cope with.Milkman said:
Big bodied WR with incredible athleticism and a high ceiling.
Late breakout though and bit of a project in the route running department--making him more likely to be a big slot than play outside
I put zero emphasis on the Pajama Olympics. I don't give two ####s that a player runs arbitrarily faster/slower by 0.01 seconds than someone else, or how many bench presses they can do.
I do put a ton of emphasis on breakout age and route running ability, so these facts essentially strike him off my draft list altogether.
Again, Washington already has experience and limited success at the pro level. Give him a top-quality veteran QB leader and great things can happen.
Sorry to sidetrack the Diontae Johnson discussion, I like him better than the other two Pittsburgh WRs by an order of magnitude.
Combine drills are not particularly predictive, but stuff like size adjusted athleticism and speed scores (also size adjusted) are definitely data points to consider
I agree on Johnson though. He is better as a route runner and after the catch, and more versatile as well being able to play outside and in the slot
Milkman
Footballguy
cloppbeast
Footballguy
There's also a graph posted showing that seperation/target does not predict success. Pettis was offered as a single anecdote in support of this for those who are into that sort of thing. Explaining away a single data point in Pettis doesn't explain the other however-many other wrs who's seperation/target didn't correlate to their fantasy points.
However, Faust has posted a lot of different metrics in support of Johnson since this seperation per target has been brought up.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
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GordonGekko
Footballguy
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He separates well and is electric in the open field
Good enough to produce with the same QB play that made Juju a bum
Not AB but he is not regressing with more playing time (rookie to sophomore year and didn't even start for first 3 games last year), a better QB and a better offense
Though the blue collar player and fanbase angle is an interesting one. Conner similarly got a ton of hype early due to that factor
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https://twitter.com/farabaughfb/status/1284755046417281024?s=21
Some route running by Diontae including beating Patrick Peterson as part of bracket coverage and Tre White.
Some route running by Diontae including beating Patrick Peterson as part of bracket coverage and Tre White.
Milkman
Footballguy
Awesome post! Peterson looks lost and helpless against Diontae. Like he's a magician. I really hope he stays healthy.......I don't want to get too excited but if Ben has anything left for a couple years I see #1 WR in FF ceiling here.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Milkman
Footballguy
It's a very valid point. I agree he might not be the most targeted Pittsburg WR this year. I'm anticipating JuJu is gone next year and valuing Diontae as Pittsburgh's future #1 WR. I do understand I could be wrong but I feel there is value in situations like this where I see a player and situation lining up like this before the masses. It's JuJu and Ben's established connection though not JuJu's skill that gives me pause. I'm confident Diontae is better right now than JuJu.
Having said that Diontae is open to much and Ben is to good. 110 targets this year seems like his floor if the Steelers are running their same offense through Ben. Sky is the limit on his ceiling.
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Milkman
Footballguy
Diontae Johnson looks just like Antiono Brown out there. The flashes at least. I can hardly tell them apart. That was the initial read I had of him coming out of college last year.
Brown's rookie year 19 targets 16-167-0
Diontae's rookie year (with crap QB play) 92 targets 59-680-5
Besides injury to Diontae or Big Ben there's zero reason to believe those number do anything but go up.
2018 season
Brown 168 targets 104-1297-15 against #1 CB and double teams constantly.
JuJu 166 targets 111-1426-7 against #2 CB and LB/S one on one constantly.
I'm not going to sit here and say Diontae could be better than Brown (Brown is the the discussion for top 3-4 WR all time) at this early stage in his career and Brown's rookie year but those numbers sure do point in that direction.
Brown's rookie year 19 targets 16-167-0
Diontae's rookie year (with crap QB play) 92 targets 59-680-5
Besides injury to Diontae or Big Ben there's zero reason to believe those number do anything but go up.
2018 season
Brown 168 targets 104-1297-15 against #1 CB and double teams constantly.
JuJu 166 targets 111-1426-7 against #2 CB and LB/S one on one constantly.
I'm not going to sit here and say Diontae could be better than Brown (Brown is the the discussion for top 3-4 WR all time) at this early stage in his career and Brown's rookie year but those numbers sure do point in that direction.
Ben's loved a lot of WR's over the years and has had not problem moving on to the next one.
Who said he had to like JuJu any less? Your contstant JuJu references in the Diontae Johnson thread is frankly a tired spiel and my only regret is feeding it in anyway.
Ben's had a ton of #1WR's over the year and he's adjusted quite well with different #1 WR's. Except for that 1.5 games last year JuJu has never been that guy. But when he had two good WR's in 2018 both caught over 100 passes. So for me while wondering which one of Diontae or JuJu is actually a better football player is of interest to me as a football fan and as a Steelers fan but for fantasy debating which WR Ben likes more or how they fit in his hierarchy for this next season is of zero consequence to me and as it should be to anyone when his last full season he showed he can feed multiple WR's.
And as this relates to dynasty the way this is going to work out is the only way JuJu makes it back in 2021 is if he has another bad year. There is close to no chance he has a big rebound year and returns in 2021 so again why continue to bring up JuJu constantly in the Diontae thread?
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
Because there seems to be an agreement among some that Johnson will be the #1WR in Pittsburgh and I believe that is still Smith-Schuster. Now that doesn't mean Johnson can't have a 1000 yd season if he's #2, because if the Steelers rock with a renewed offense and a healthy and productive Roethlisberger, there will be plenty to go around. Last year was a throw away because Ben was out and they had garbage at the QB position.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
That stiff arm he gives White at the endCobbler1 said:
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JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Like most QBs he loves whoever gets open and whoever he he can trustJohnnyU said:
