FarFromHome
Footballguy
Not a bad idea if you can get at wr3 or low end wr2 prices. I'd assume few Wilson owners are gonna sell low though.
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WR Garrett Wilson, NYJ (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Crash Davis
Footballguy
I think the point @JohnnyU made is the key here. It doesn't matter what we think of Adams at this point of his career, it's what Rodgers thinks. Until proven otherwise i'm going to bet that he is going to treat him like he was the 2020 version. I still think Wilson has tons of value in fantasy for the reasons I stated above, but I'd be very surprised if Adams doesn't lead the team in targets the rest of the season provided he is healthy.
I’m not saying he’s the same WR he was four years ago but I’ll say just from what I watched of him this season he is still elite in all the facets he was back then. Factor in the familiarity he already has with Rodgers and this could be a great situation for his owners.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
he may very well. there were 34 targets last night. my point is that this is obviously an overall boost to the offense. Let's say next week there are 40 targets. Could easily see
Adams - 10
Wilson - 8
Lazard - 6
Hall - 5
Conklin - 5
Others - 6
seems plausible
Crash Davis
Footballguy
As a Wilson owner it makes zero sense to do that coming off of his two best games of the season, both 100yd and a TD. That's when his owners might have been trying to sell high. Nothing to do but hold right now.
More like how people who got Nico at a dip after they made a similar trade for Diggs felt.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
In the end what we do is math. You outlined 40 passing attempts. I can't imagine the Jets going into each game thinking Rodgers needs 40 passing attempts. They have had losing game scripts most weeks and he has hit 40 attempts in only 2 of 6 games.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I suppose. I believe most of those targets will go to your top 3 listed, possibly more.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
i'm assuming the offensive production improves
Crash Davis
Footballguy
That's my hope as a Wilson owner and a Jets fan, that Adams opens up the offense, extends drives and gives Wilson and Hall better opportunities to make plays. I'm not doom and gloom for Wilson by any means, I just think it is realistic to expect Adams to get a lot of targets and Wilson's very high target share to decrease a bit.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Someone mentioned it earlier and I agree. Only person that benefits with this trade is Rodgers. I can see a path where he is a top 10 fantasy QB rest of season. Everyone else takes a hit. I can see Mike Williams fighting to stay active each week. Kinda surprised he wasn't involved in deal. He just looks like a Raider.
Jets are running a very low number of plays cause Rodgers wastes a lot of play clock. I do not see top 10 with that approach
jm192
Footballguy
Maybe the pace improves when he has Adams and Wilson?
Chaka
Footballguy
It seems like some people are forgetting about the 2022 version of Davante. Hell the 2023 version of Davante was pretty amazing too considering he had Aidan O'Connell, Jimmy Garrappolo and Brian freaking Hoyer throwing to him, on a team that went through a mid season coaching change.
He's 32, he's not dead.
He has never been a guy who wins because he physically dominates opponents; his game has always been based on precise route running and knowing which spots the QB is going to based on the defense presented. That doesn't just disappear like losing your 4.3 speed.
Frankly, I think people should be making offers for Davante.
Absolutely Nothing
Footballguy
Situation gives me DJ Moore/Keenan Allen vibes. Two similarly sized WRs with distinct play styles. GW will need to outplay Adams to keep his target share, but that’s within the realm of possibility. Biggest hit in value is Breece Hall’s PPR value IMO, as Adams should still dominate the lay-up routes.
I'd say the guy taking the hit is Lazard who is currently 24th in the league among WR's for targets. Granted some injuries to other WR's and bye weeks but he's still 67th in the entire NFL for all positions in team target share.
Mike Williams and Lazard combined for just over 8 targets a game. I'd venture to guess that drops down to 3-4 a week between those two, with the idea that MW is not active for as long as he's on the team.
Absolutely Nothing
Footballguy
I think being a big bodied, fast receiver who can get downfield will always be valuable. Lazard saw more targets but so much of his fantasy damage is on long bombs and touchdowns. MW’s is no longer a factor IMO, his targets will mostly go to Lazard, as they served somewhat similar roles from what I have gathered. Maybe 3-6 targets a game, but with a higher ADOT and softer coverage.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
It's a double edged sword with Wilson and Adams for sure. On one hand, Adams will be Rodgers safety blanket and first read. Adams will see a ton of targets imo. On the other hand, Adams will also get a ton of attention from opposing D's, thus opening things up for Wilson more.
Overall I still think this will hurt Wilson, but not to the extend where people need to send him off for nothing.
Overall I still think this will hurt Wilson, but not to the extend where people need to send him off for nothing.
Except Lazard is not fast.
He's big bodied and his best trait is a blocker. He's replacement level as a receiver.
Not sure he and Willams served simliar roles and they both combined for 10 targets last night. If Davante had already been on the team that probably would have been more like 3-4, combined.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Yep Bengals fan here that was just about to post on range. Upside would be Tee Higgins and downside would be Iosivas/late Bengals Tyler Boyd. A little tough with where Wilson tended to be drafted.
On a side note I think my Bengals WANT to run the ball more but the defensive issues too often get us into game scripts where Burrow is throwing every down.
-QG
I can't say I agree with most of this, no offense. But specifically....
I don't think Adams will be his first read or some target monster relative to Wilson. Key to note the relative to Wilson part. I think it's more of a 1A/1B situation.
I also don't think Adams is going to get more attention from opposing D's, again relative to Wilson. I just don't think defensive coordinators fear him more then Wilson. I know money mattered but there is a reason no teams were paying a second for Davante. He's still good, he's not what he once was though.
These are not the same players they were in GB.
Maybe so in the sense that since Tee returned he's got more targets then Chase on the whole and in 3 of their 4 games together.
oddsbodkins
Footballguy
I’m glad I traded Wilson last week. I don’t trust Rodgers now that he has boo boo back. He’s also 40+ with a porous line in a locker room situation that seems pretty tenuous. Very possible I’m way wrong but I don’t want any part of the Jets offense.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
So you would trade Chase for Higgins?
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
None taken.
Like I said here and in another thread, Adams is still very much an elite WR. He is simply better than GW. Two hot weeks of Wilson being force-fed targets doesn't change the fact Adams will instantly be Rodgers go-to guy. That has always been and always will be Rodgers' main guy.
I don't think GW will be a bad fantasy option, but Adams will be WR1 in NY. Neither you or I can say definitively what will happen, but my money is on Adams seeing a substantial portion of the targets.
That's not relative to me because Chase does not need the volume someone like Davante does.
I just don't agree, at all.
RaidersAreOne
Footballguy
Is this based on box score scouting or what exactly?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
…..but…..but..,,but he’s 32. He must not be elite any longer. Yeah, that’s the ticket.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Where is Rich Kotite when you need him? I think the Jets are going to go on a run. Let’s hope for their fans it isn’t to the restroom.The answer to the J-E-T-S problems
Saleh gone
Adams coming in
All is well in Jetland....
No but I'd ask the same question to you.
Adams is just not the player he used to be and like I said earlier if he was someone would have paid a second. If he was the Raiders would adjusted his contract instead of planning to cut him after this year and we'd not be in this position today because he'd not have requested a trade.
Most accurate statement you've made in this thread today.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
only WRs i see in the top 25 that are Adams' age are Diggs (6) and Evans (15). It's rare for a reason. Add a 40-year old QB, granted an all-timer, but i don't see "elite"
It’s rare, but we’ve seen it time and time again over the years from elite wrs. They are simply a different breed, and Adams certainly falls into that category.
Larry Fitzgerald
Reggie Wayne
Anquan Boldin
Steve Smith
Roddy White
Andre Johnson
That’s off the top of my head.
Notice how long ago those seasons were though? I've been beating this drum to death here last few years and that RB's and WR's are aging out worse then ever.
Always an outlier. A Derrick Henry for instance this year at RB. Mostert last year though he had light wear and tear on his side. But it was two years ago when Adams got traded to the Raiders that Daniel Jeremiah was making post on twitter detailing the decline/productivity of WR's on the other side of 30 as a warning sign of the trade and I've not seen a lot of reasons to think otherwise in these two years.
I don't think he's an elite player or fantasy performer any longer. Absolutely still good and targets will help him a ton in fantasy, just not elite any longer.
fightingillini
Footballguy
It doesn't matter if Adams gets more targets than Wilson, what matters is the quality of targets. Likely Adams will draw the the best CB. I can see Wilson being open a ton.
Where I think Wilson's value takes a dive is targets near the goalline. Adams and Rodgers are money inside the 10. So I can easily see Wilson getting 7-10 targets but I do expect the TDs to go down.
Also, while Rodgers and Adams have a long history, it is not the exact offense in GB. It will likely take a couple of weeks for them to completely gel again. This gives a great opportunity if Wilson has a good game next week to sell him at a higher price.
Where I think Wilson's value takes a dive is targets near the goalline. Adams and Rodgers are money inside the 10. So I can easily see Wilson getting 7-10 targets but I do expect the TDs to go down.
Also, while Rodgers and Adams have a long history, it is not the exact offense in GB. It will likely take a couple of weeks for them to completely gel again. This gives a great opportunity if Wilson has a good game next week to sell him at a higher price.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Let's not forget the love affair Rodgers has with a mediocre Lazard.
Mike Evans would be an example of a more recent guy. Same age as Adams.
Keenan last year as well.
This seems like a no-brainer.
Jets are averaging 41.5 throws over the last 4 games. That volume and breakdown seems reasonable to me. Different team, different offense of course, but that rate of attempts/year isn't far off what AR was doing in GB.
That said, there was definitely no share in target share in the AR/Davante GB era. Almost no talent at the WR2 spot the whole time though.
Maybe we'll get a vintage 2014 AR performance where he targeted Jordy Nelson 151 times and Randall Cobb 127 on only 520 attempts. Bet GW could post a WR1 season on 127 targets with DA occupying coverage.
Cautiously optimistic. GW turned 24 in July and has done nothing but produce under abysmal circumstances. I'd rather have GW as WR1b with AR and DA, than GW as WR1a with Zach Wilson 10/10 times. If it doesn't work out, AR/DA are not going to be there for the long haul anyways.
Yes, I expect Rodgers will feed Adams like crazy in NY this year and all other receivers will take a big hit. I'm hoping to deal Adams for Wilson in dynasty to get younger at WR and suspect that Wilson's youth will demand a decent sweetener to make that happen. Maybe Adams goes out in a blaze of glory this year or next but Wilson's gonna produce for another half dozen years. He's legit.
I don't agree either but Adams could win some fantasy championships for folks this year on volume alone.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Well. To be fair you picked a 4 game stretch in which one of the games the Jets fell behind 17-0 and Rodgers threw it 54 times. That's gonna sway the numbers a bit. Ha ha
