MVS is going a legit 50-55 picks after JuJu. That is insane considering there shouldn't be a massive talent difference between the two and Skyy Moore/Mecole Hardman (#MecoleMestake) shouldn't threaten his workload until midseason at the earliest.
Juju is on a 2.5m contract. MVS is getting 30m garunteed. Am I using flawed reasoning here?
Very flawed.
#1 - contracts are more about leverage than anything else. Teams are also spending UFA in a vaccuum - if they get no WR they are left grasping. It's kind of like a fantasy draft - if there's a QB run you better draft Cousins from the 6.01 because you have no idea what's coming back to you 22 picks later.
#2 - you're incorrect, he's not $30M guaranteed. He's $8.56M guaranteed with $4.8M 2022 cap hit. JJSS is $3.7M cash/cap.
#3 - that's a sunk cost now. Water under the bridge. Those numbers reflect the market from March, not their gameplanning in September.
Back to #1. JJSS had less leverage due to the health conditions but he also got the UFA lottery ticket next year. If he balls out he can get back into the $18M range very quickly. MVS is locked into a 3 year deal. Teams tend to pay less on shorter contracts because of the risk of increasing costs sooner.
In general I find contracts a very poor predictor of fantasy success.
Current Contract
Marquez Valdes-Scantling signed a 3 year, $30,000,000 contract with the Kansas City Chiefs, including a $6,000,000 signing bonus, $15,000,000 guaranteed, and an average annual salary of $10,000,000. In 2022, Valdes-Scantling will earn a base salary of $2,560,000, a signing bonus of $6,000,000, a roster bonus of $340,000 and a workout bonus of $100,000, while carrying a cap hit of $4,880,000 and a dead cap value of $8,660,000.
Contract Notes:
- $8.56M guaranteed at signing (signing bonus + 2022 salary)
- $6.44M of 2023 salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2023 (injury guaranteed at signing)