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WR Mike Williams, NYJ (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Cleared to go, Keenan Allen out, playing the Giants. No more excuses, it's now time or he forever enters my dead zone.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
As a Chargers fan, I seriously hope the Chargers aren't the ones who give him a contract for $15M+ per year. I don't think he is a top 30 NFL WR, but his contract will probably be top 10-20.
This is by far his best season, and he is averaging 4.6 receptions, 68.9 receiving yards, and 0.5 TDs. Those are solid numbers, but he also has 7 drops. And it is worth pointing out that the Chargers are tied for #3 in pass attempts per game, which boosts his numbers compared to many/most of his peers.
Chaka
Footballguy
He had three consecutive opportunities in the end zone on that first drive. IMO one was a flat drop on a throw almost identical to the TD catch Tyreek made later in the game.
Then he doesn't even look for the ball on a perfect seam route for a potential big gainer.
I like his talent but now question his focus or preparation or something like that.
Keenan missing him badly when he was wide open for another likely TD was just the cherry on Thursdays frustration sundae.
Then he doesn't even look for the ball on a perfect seam route for a potential big gainer.
I like his talent but now question his focus or preparation or something like that.
Keenan missing him badly when he was wide open for another likely TD was just the cherry on Thursdays frustration sundae.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Of which at least 3 were clear TDs in games where it would have mattered too. Rough.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
He was dropped, and I scooped. Worthy of a WR3 start if you're in need of Variance?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Not sure what to expect out there. I really don't want to start him today but my other options (in one spot) is Gabriel Davis or Jaret Patterson. Don't hate those options but WFT and Heinecke have been really really bad lately and who knows maybe J Williams gets the bulk of the work. And I haven't figured out the BUF WR situation yet this morning.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
He just seems like the type that should stay where he is. Herbert, Allen, Eck and him seem like a solid unit.
Riffraff
Footballguy
Agreed, the offense would be best suited to keep the players in place. They are losing coaching staff to other teams. At least the players would know the offense.
Not many mention that Mike's lows usually correspond with Herbert's slumps, but most blame the WR instead of the shiny QB.
Main issue with Williams should be historical health, not production.
(And the dynasty fanboys that just want Palmer to be a thing for whatever reason)
foxco
Footballguy
Think that's pretty fair. Herbert one of the best young QBs, even in a 1QB league I'd like to have him. Williams is a good piece but he's been around a while and only had 1 really good year. I think it's fairly close - if you can stand to lose Williams I don't mind it.
I do it to get Herbert if I needed a QB. I wouldn't do it to give up Herbert unless I had an equally decent QB already in place.
grateful zed
Footballguy
Boston
Footballguy
In a heartbeat...you get a potential top 5 QB for a nothing too special fantasy WR...this is a steal.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
No brainer for me. Majority trashes QB values in 1QB but I like to have a top guy. Herbert has the look and now two seasons of resume indicating he can be that for a long time.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Herbert seems like a truck and Williams seems like a trailer to me.
I have much more confidence Herbert will look like Herbert no matter who the WR's are next year than I do that Williams will have 2021 stats playing with the Browns/Colts/Jags as some people have been suggesting. The one team I can possibly imagine Williams playing as well for is LV because Williams just seems like a Carr type of target. Otherwise I expect a big step back if he no longer plays with Herbert in an offensive scheme that people said all last summer was going to funnel targets to Williams.
Williams looked great getting 129 targets from a pro-bowl QB.... I'm just not sure that happens again many other places. He's one of those guys where his value in September drafts will completely be determined on where he lands in March.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Yes. We don't know where Williams would land, Williams has a history of getting hurt, not sure if Williams will even match this year again, and I get Herbert who would be my starter for the next 5-8 years? Sign me up for that.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
This feels like an obvious overpay, but good to keep him connected to Herbert.
jm192
Footballguy
Checking the scoring from my leagues last year:
In PPR, he finished WR13 in total points.
I'm in a few leagues with bonuses for long TD's/big yardage games. Williams finished WR11 and only hit a bonus once-- 4 point bonus, finishing 4.xx points above Lockett.
In another league with bonuses for big plays/big yardage games, he finished WR13.
I'm not saying it's perfect, but it gives us an idea that he was a fringe WR1 last year. With another season of growth and being tied to Herbert--seems like a guy poised to make a big jump, no?
I know the inconsistency has been maddening. I realize he had a very hot start and then kind of fell off. But then he finished with 3 big games.
In PPR, he finished WR13 in total points.
I'm in a few leagues with bonuses for long TD's/big yardage games. Williams finished WR11 and only hit a bonus once-- 4 point bonus, finishing 4.xx points above Lockett.
In another league with bonuses for big plays/big yardage games, he finished WR13.
I'm not saying it's perfect, but it gives us an idea that he was a fringe WR1 last year. With another season of growth and being tied to Herbert--seems like a guy poised to make a big jump, no?
I know the inconsistency has been maddening. I realize he had a very hot start and then kind of fell off. But then he finished with 3 big games.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
I don't think so. "Big jump" implies that he will significantly exceed his stats in 2021:
- 76 receptions, a career high by a huge margin... previous career high was 49 receptions
- 1146 receiving yards, another career high... previous career high was 1001 receiving yards
- 51 first downs, another career high... previous career high was 41 first downs
- 9 receiving TDs... not a career high, since he had 10 in 2018... but he had 17 career receiving TDs in 2017-2020, so it is similar to an outlier
On top of that stuff, the Chargers drafted Josh Palmer in the 3rd round last year. He had a solid rookie season (33/353/4 on 49 targets), and should be expected to improve and be given more opportunities in 2022. Some of that should eat into Allen's target share, but Williams should feel it, too.
I don't see how anyone looks at these facts and concludes that Williams is in line for a big jump in 2022.
I would say I think it's possible he takes a big jump and if he does or not will depend on how healthy he can remain more then anything. Just a night and day difference for him from week 5 last year to rest of season. I know Staley has said his knee was not an issue but his decline in production was literally right when his knee issue popped up.
Just to put those 5 games vs ROS in perspective he had a 2 point turd game those first 5 games and was still WR3 in PPG and within less then a point of WR1. If I'd have known how he'd have performed from week 6 to ROS I'd have cut him in redraft leagues heading into that week.
Again I can't help but think that stark contrast in production was not related to health. Targets and health has always been his two issues, I think the new system brought in last year fixed one of those items.
Put me in the camp of people who think Williams could indeed make a big leap. His challenge will be to stay fully healthy, which is always tricky for a player who puts his body at risk every time he makes a contested catch.
Prior to 2021, Williams had 3 career games with at least 10 targets and one game with more than 10 targets. In 2021, he had 4 games with at least 10 targets and 3 with more than 10 targets. Prior to 2021, his career high for targets in a game was 13 (2019). Last season, he had games of 16 & 17 targets. It's true that the defense should be significantly improved but that may be mitigated by two factors: 1) Staley doesn't strike me as a coach who will take his foot off the gas. Not saying he will run up the score on people but I think he will remain aggressive and he will likely need to, which brings me to 2) the competition in the AFC West and AFC, in general, is incredibly tough and the Chargers will almost certainly find themselves in multiple high-scoring games. I'm guessing we'll see at least a couple of 75+ point games in the AFC west this year.
More on the last point, the Chargers schedule is very interesting. Obviously, all of their 8 games against AFC West opponents have the potential to be very high-scoring. They also play Arizona, which could go the same way, as well as the Rams (Week 16!). Then, they have games against the Texans, Jaguars, and Falcons, in which they could drop a lot of points fast. But the most compelling part of their schedule is that they play almost all of their games in domes (or stadiums with retractable roofs). Their potential "bad weather" games are early in the season (@KC, Week 2, @CLE, Week 5) or after the FF playoffs (@DEN, Week 17). Their last 7 games (excluding week 17) are indoors and all of their games in the FF playoffs are indoors. Also, after Week 9, they don't travel much, except for a game at Indianapolis.
We saw the potential of what Williams can do in the first 5 games last year. He has to remain healthy, but if he does, I think he's the most likely player to finish as the overall WR1 who's being drafted outside of the first 2 rounds.
Prior to 2021, Williams had 3 career games with at least 10 targets and one game with more than 10 targets. In 2021, he had 4 games with at least 10 targets and 3 with more than 10 targets. Prior to 2021, his career high for targets in a game was 13 (2019). Last season, he had games of 16 & 17 targets. It's true that the defense should be significantly improved but that may be mitigated by two factors: 1) Staley doesn't strike me as a coach who will take his foot off the gas. Not saying he will run up the score on people but I think he will remain aggressive and he will likely need to, which brings me to 2) the competition in the AFC West and AFC, in general, is incredibly tough and the Chargers will almost certainly find themselves in multiple high-scoring games. I'm guessing we'll see at least a couple of 75+ point games in the AFC west this year.
More on the last point, the Chargers schedule is very interesting. Obviously, all of their 8 games against AFC West opponents have the potential to be very high-scoring. They also play Arizona, which could go the same way, as well as the Rams (Week 16!). Then, they have games against the Texans, Jaguars, and Falcons, in which they could drop a lot of points fast. But the most compelling part of their schedule is that they play almost all of their games in domes (or stadiums with retractable roofs). Their potential "bad weather" games are early in the season (@KC, Week 2, @CLE, Week 5) or after the FF playoffs (@DEN, Week 17). Their last 7 games (excluding week 17) are indoors and all of their games in the FF playoffs are indoors. Also, after Week 9, they don't travel much, except for a game at Indianapolis.
We saw the potential of what Williams can do in the first 5 games last year. He has to remain healthy, but if he does, I think he's the most likely player to finish as the overall WR1 who's being drafted outside of the first 2 rounds.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
That's a fair question although Kupp just showed that it can be done. I guess my theory is that there will be more offensive production to go around. I'm imagining numbers closer to what Brady put up last year - 5,300/43. I don't think Ekeler is likely to catch 8 td's again. He's done it twice and I think Faulk is the only other person to do that. I do think Palmer will have a larger role but I think Williams will be the biggest beneficiary. To your question earlier, he hurt his knee in Week 5 and although he played through the injury, it clearly impacted his production. I'm not predicting that WIlliams will be the overall WR1 but rather that if I had to bet on someone outside of round 2 doing it, it would be him, just because I think the environment and surrounding factors so favorable for him. I don't see him or anyone else doing what Kupp did, but, assuming health, I can see a 10-15% leap across the board to 85/1300/12/.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think it's the latter. Stafford was the perfect fit, they had amazing chemistry and it unlocked his full potential. Plus, Woods went down and a huge number of targets flowed Kupp's way.
In my opinion, both.
With Williams, I'm mildly concerned he had a contract year push. I'm also concerned that he'll see #1 coverage a lot more often this season, which in turn might actually benefit Keenan Allen, who I prefer by a decent amount in redraft.
On the flip side, I didn't think Williams played any better last year than he had in the past, he just was used more often. Its possible he stays used as often, though as others have said, the Chargers likely won't be chasing as much this season with their defensive improvements. Ultimately, I see Williams as the #3 target in the passing game, and much more likely to catch 60 passes, than 80+ passes.
I think what changed for Williams is the way he was utilized by Lombardi. His role expanded significantly from being mostly a down the field contested catch player. What you're saying is certainly possible, but I thought Allen looked like a player in slow decline towards the end of last season to me. I still think the floor remains high but not seeing the ceiling he once had.
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Was just so streaky (good & bad) last year.
For the first 5 games of last year, he was unstoppable; 31/471/6. I had thought he had become THE guy.
Then he went thru the following 10 game stretch (he played in 9)...33/444/1. Imagine catching 1 TD from Justin Herbert over NINE games while he threw 20? Painful.
If there were a silver lining of hope for Williams fans it's that during that 10 game stretch, Herbert was not as exceptional.
Averages
Herbert (first 5 gms): 28/41 315 2.6/0.6 (Chargers 4-1)
Herbert (next 10): 25/37 282 2.0/1.1 (Chargers 4-6)
The pro-Williams argument is that he turns into the alpha in that WR room. Last season was still his best season.
But he's going into his 5th year, and for a Top 10 WR pick, for last year 76/1146/9 to be his best year...I imagine someone will fall in love with him more than me at whatever price he goes for.
For the first 5 games of last year, he was unstoppable; 31/471/6. I had thought he had become THE guy.
Then he went thru the following 10 game stretch (he played in 9)...33/444/1. Imagine catching 1 TD from Justin Herbert over NINE games while he threw 20? Painful.
If there were a silver lining of hope for Williams fans it's that during that 10 game stretch, Herbert was not as exceptional.
Averages
Herbert (first 5 gms): 28/41 315 2.6/0.6 (Chargers 4-1)
Herbert (next 10): 25/37 282 2.0/1.1 (Chargers 4-6)
The pro-Williams argument is that he turns into the alpha in that WR room. Last season was still his best season.
But he's going into his 5th year, and for a Top 10 WR pick, for last year 76/1146/9 to be his best year...I imagine someone will fall in love with him more than me at whatever price he goes for.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
FWIW, in that 5th game, he had 2 deep TDs on badly blown coverages. I know that can happen occasionally, just pointing out that he was gifted 2/114/2 in that game, which contributed to him having such strong numbers through 5 games. If you ignore those 2 plays, he had 29/357/4 in the first 5 games. Not nearly as strong, obviously.
Of course, those plays counted, and I know people will say you can't ignore them. That's fine. But he wasn't gifted multiple deep TDs through blown coverages the rest of the season IIRC, so this was a contributing factor to why his numbers in the first 5 games are so much better than the rest of the season.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
...Anthony Lynn was his head coach... This is a point in favor of 2021 being more representative of what to expect from him over the next few seasons than his first 4 seasons.
Unless you are counting on two AFC West matchups in the playoffs, they only have 6 games against AFC West opponents.
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
TheDirtyWord
Footballguy
Wishful thinking!Unless you are counting on two AFC West matchups in the playoffs, they only have 6 games against AFC West opponents.
