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WR Odell Beckham, Jr., Free Agent (3 Viewers)

i'll be the "moron" to take him in the first round next year. not sure who to rank in front of him?
As I said a week or two back, he seems to rise a half a round in potential ADP each week. After this week, he has to be middle to late 1st round at worst and very likely the #1 wr off the board. We've seen the week to week consistency to indicate a very high floor and his ceiling can be things we've never seen before. I'll happily take that "risk".
he's not the #1 wr.
how would you rank them in a ppr?

antonio brown has a good case for #1.

after that?
ya antonio brown has been rediculous the last few years.

even calvin johnson averaged over 100 yards a game for 3 straight years. and this past yr, he went for 82 yards a game and 8 tds over 13 games, despite being severely limited in 2 of those games.

and then demaryius thomas has been awesome the last 3 years, averaging over 95 catches a year, 90+ yards a game and 12 tds a year.

and really, would anyone be surprised if dez, aj green, julio or jordy finished as the top wr?

 
Offered Dez Bryant + 1.07 for OBJ + 1.06 in one league...was declined.

Offered Demaryius for him and a bit more in another and the owner said he wouldn't even take Demaryius straight up for him.

Yea, he's not worth the value that he currently has. Sure, I like him. But no way he's worth more than Dez and Demaryius already. If someone is crazy enough to think he can keep up this pace throughout his career, sell high my friends. Sure its a different position, but look at Cam Newton and RGIII's rookie seasons. Alot of people were saying the same things about them. "If they can do this as rookies, they will only get better" / "how can a rookie season be a player's ceiling?"".

I think he's definitely a top 10 dynasty WR and someone I would gladly take as my WR1 in dynasty. But the overall WR1 right now, and people wanting more on top of Dez or Demaryius for him? No thanks.
hes definitely worth more than DT in a dynasty. Peyton Manning is an old man and throwing ducks this year. Something is wrong with him. DTs days as a stud WR are numbered.
How does Green, Brown, Calvin and Julio consistently finish in the top 10 without Manning throwing to them? As long as the next Bronco quarterback isn't Tebow he will continue to be a top 10 guy.
did i say he wouldnt?
 
Beckham is the perfect sell high player. Everyone wants him, you can get almost anything you want for him, and nobody is going to look past his rookie season to anticipate the likely per-touch production regression, target regression, and impending QB decline.

He looks like he's going to be a very good player in this league for a long time, but I'm not hesitating at all if I can turn him into Julio Jones.
Huh? Julio is in his 4th year and had his best season this year and Beckham out scored him by 14 points in 3 fewer games.
Largely on the strength of scoring 12 TDs to Julio's 6. Even if you think Beckham's other rate stats are sustainable, his TD rate obviously isn't and Jones' was below his career average. Even that out and you get the guy who's played great for 12 games vs the guy who's played great for almost 50. I'll take the more proven guy who will be playing with Ryan for the next four years or so.
How is he more proven? Beckham has proven more in his 12 games than Julio has n his career. People get totally hung up on perception. Look I'm not one to jump in with both feet on just any player but this kid is special. He makes it look easy because he's just that good.

 
Beckham is the perfect sell high player. Everyone wants him, you can get almost anything you want for him, and nobody is going to look past his rookie season to anticipate the likely per-touch production regression, target regression, and impending QB decline.

He looks like he's going to be a very good player in this league for a long time, but I'm not hesitating at all if I can turn him into Julio Jones.
Huh? Julio is in his 4th year and had his best season this year and Beckham out scored him by 14 points in 3 fewer games.
6 points in my league, and I don't see anyway that the # targets that ODB had over his 12 games is sustainable. he basically had 115 targets in 9 games. The two games against defensive in the top 10 against the pass no tds, and 13 catches for 201 yards. yes he put up great stats and he is legit, but they played a very soft schedule against the pass this year, and they were always losing and throwing the ball from behind.
The soft schedule is true the playing from behind is not

 
there wll be a regression....no way he sustains the pace....it would be video game crazy

see Jimmy Graham and Keenan Allen and all the owners that chased their stats from last year and drafted accordingly....

with that said....he is a beast and should be in the conversation of WR1-WR5 in drafts next year.....

NYG didn't have a ton to play for and I think Eli almost treated him as that "bonus" slot/area you shoot for when playing pinball....what the hell let me chuck it his way and see if I keep hitting the jackpot....

NFL teams will adjust and make "somebody else" beat them because he has shown he deserves that type of attention....but he has also shown that he can maybe still play through some of that......the fact that he carried many teams to fantasy titles this year (ala graham and Allen last year) I think will have his ADP heading into 2015 a little higher than it should be.....I think you have to expect some regression and you should draft/trade/etc accordingly....
jimmy graham's stats last year, were similar to his production 2 years ago. if they were chasing his 2011 stats last year, then they were successful. and even this year, his production was similar for the first 12 weeks.

graham will be a monster next year, and will likely be excellent value.

keenan allen will esp be super value next year.

 
Offered Dez Bryant + 1.07 for OBJ + 1.06 in one league...was declined.

Offered Demaryius for him and a bit more in another and the owner said he wouldn't even take Demaryius straight up for him.

Yea, he's not worth the value that he currently has. Sure, I like him. But no way he's worth more than Dez and Demaryius already. If someone is crazy enough to think he can keep up this pace throughout his career, sell high my friends. Sure its a different position, but look at Cam Newton and RGIII's rookie seasons. Alot of people were saying the same things about them. "If they can do this as rookies, they will only get better" / "how can a rookie season be a player's ceiling?"".

I think he's definitely a top 10 dynasty WR and someone I would gladly take as my WR1 in dynasty. But the overall WR1 right now, and people wanting more on top of Dez or Demaryius for him? No thanks.
ofc hes worth more than those guys. hes 4 years younger.

 
49ers GM almost traded a 1st ,2nd and a 3rd to get Beckham

geemanfan : 10:19 pm
Wow RT @Christian_Gin: Trent Baalke told @957thegame that he held back at trading a 1st, 2nd and 3rd to move up for Odell Beckham. #49ers
 
i'll be the "moron" to take him in the first round next year. not sure who to rank in front of him?
As I said a week or two back, he seems to rise a half a round in potential ADP each week. After this week, he has to be middle to late 1st round at worst and very likely the #1 wr off the board. We've seen the week to week consistency to indicate a very high floor and his ceiling can be things we've never seen before. I'll happily take that "risk".
he's not the #1 wr.
how would you rank them in a ppr?

antonio brown has a good case for #1.

after that?
and really, would anyone be surprised if dez, aj green, julio or jordy finished as the top wr?
No, there's a group of about 7 or so WR's who could end up the top WR, but Beckham is in that group and the youngest.

 
The gist of my back and forth with Adam is that he thinks its the smart bet that Beckham will never touch these production levels again in his career and it would be a bad move to take him as the WR1 next year and I think since we have never seen a rookie WR set the bar this high, we should be open to Beckham as a generational talent, doing things we thought were impossible before him - such as getting over 100 yds/game w no camp or preseason and a late start to the season, so I won't talk folks out of it, although I probably wouldn't do it.
I would be happy if he would put up the same numbers, 91/1200/12, over a 16 game span which is very obtainable and realistic.
 
Tom Coughlin didn't waste any time filling the New York Giants opening at quarterbacks coach, bringing Mike Sullivan back tot he role he held in 2010 and 2011.

The opening was created when Danny Langsdorf left the Giants Tuesday to return to the college ranks as offensive coordinator at Nebraska.

"Mike Sullivan is a quality football coach and is an outstanding positional coach and did a great job for us as a receiver coach and as a quarterbacks coach," Coughlin said. "He was the first thought that I had and we were fortunate in that the timing was right to get him back here. We're very pleased to be able to bring him back home."

Sullivan was with the Giants as an assistant from 2004-2011. He was wide receivers coach until 2009 and served as quarterbacks coach his final two seasons. Sullivan then spent two seasons as offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before being let go after the 2013 season.

During Sullivan's two years as quarterbacks coach Manning completed 61.9 percent of his passes for 8,935 yards, 60 touchdowns, 41 interceptions and a passer rating of 89.2. He had career-high totals of 31 touchdown passes in 2010 and 4,933 yards the following season, when the Giants won their second Super Bowl with Manning as quarterback. It is impossible to prove that there was a correlation, but Manning's performance fell off the two seasons after Sullivan left for Tampa Bay.

http://www.bigblueview.com/2014/12/31/7475857/mike-sullivan-returns-to-giants-as-quarterbacks-coach

 
The owner of the NYG publicly compares Beckham to the greatest player in their franchise history. Yes, he has to sell tickets after 2 bad seasons but he also has nowhere to hide if he's wrong. Stop the Allen and Clayton comparisons. The kid is special and half of these many ODB threads have already turned into fans vs naysayers because anyone can make stats say whatever they want. It's incredible that of all the ODB threads on this site, there really is no constructive conversation.

ETA Happy 2015

 
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I think the Mara quote(s) just indicatesthat ODB is the first rookie since LT to have such a major impact on the NYG franchise. I don't think he was saying that ODB will be greatest to ever play his position. BTW, ODB brought me a championship this year and I'm definitely looking to bid high on him in next years auction draft. But before I do, I would like to see a complete game and not just the RedZone highlights. Does anyone have a suggestion as to which game I (or others like me) should watch? I will definitely check out the Seattle game and see how he matched up against Sherman etc. But I would like to check out a few more games before I spend $45-50 on him in next years draft. TIA

 
Did either of you guys actually watch LT play??? Maybe we should just put OBJ the hall of fame now???
yes and I think the owner of the team may have seen him as well. He's also not saying that he's going to be as good as LT just that they haven't had an impact player with unique physical abilities since him. Not sure why that's so outrageous if you've seen Beckham play.

 
I think the Mara quote(s) just indicatesthat ODB is the first rookie since LT to have such a major impact on the NYG franchise. I don't think he was saying that ODB will be greatest to ever play his position. BTW, ODB brought me a championship this year and I'm definitely looking to bid high on him in next years auction draft. But before I do, I would like to see a complete game and not just the RedZone highlights. Does anyone have a suggestion as to which game I (or others like me) should watch? I will definitely check out the Seattle game and see how he matched up against Sherman etc. But I would like to check out a few more games before I spend $45-50 on him in next years draft. TIA
this is an awesome piece done by Mayock on ODB after the Seattle game. http://www.giants.com/videos/videos/Mayocks-Slant-Odell-Beckham-finding-his-groove/6a9fbb5b-6c7c-4c8b-ac35-1877c46d8224

 
He did pretty well against Sherman and the Seattle D, 7 catches 90 yards I believe. Eli had a bad pick throwing to ODB but it was a terrible decision as it often happens with him.

Sherman, who isn't a very humble guy, had great words of praise for ODB after the game. That doesn't happen very often.

Here is the evidence: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000426179/article/richard-sherman-odell-beckham-jr-is-a-great-player

I dont think there is a corner in the league that can cover him one on one.

 
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Thanks fellas. I'm almost certain that I will target ODB as my WR1. Now, it's just a matter of strategizing to get him at a reasonable price at the auction draft (ie. $45). I'm sure my ##### buddies will try and bid me up.

 
Thanks fellas. I'm almost certain that I will target ODB as my WR1. Now, it's just a matter of strategizing to get him at a reasonable price at the auction draft (ie. $45). I'm sure my ##### buddies will try and bid me up.
On a 200 dollar budget? If that is the case you and your buddies should save some time and they should just wire you the first place money every August and take up another hobby.

 
msudaisy26 said:
White Lightning said:
Thanks fellas. I'm almost certain that I will target ODB as my WR1. Now, it's just a matter of strategizing to get him at a reasonable price at the auction draft (ie. $45). I'm sure my ##### buddies will try and bid me up.
On a 200 dollar budget? If that is the case you and your buddies should save some time and they should just wire you the first place money every August and take up another hobby.
Ha, I am expecting a check for 2K any day now thanks to ODB. But seriously, it's a 10 team league with top tier WR going for $40-50 and the top 3-4 RBs going for $50-60. The only time I can remember a WR going for $55-60 was Megatron after his 96/1,681/16 2011 season. Based on the league bidding history, I think getting ODB for $45-50 is about right.

 
What are we projecting for 2015?

FLOOR

130 targets

80 receptions

1200 yards

8 TDs

CEILING

175 targets

120 receptions

1750 yards

16 TDs

The floor is the Victor Cruz average 2011-13, the ceiling is OBJ pro-rated 2014 (both rounded). The former would have been WR13 this year, the latter would be historic - in full PPR, beating any WR season 2000-2014.

 
What are we projecting for 2015?

FLOOR

130 targets

80 receptions

1200 yards

8 TDs

CEILING

175 targets

120 receptions

1750 yards

16 TDs

The floor is the Victor Cruz average 2011-13, the ceiling is OBJ pro-rated 2014 (both rounded). The former would have been WR13 this year, the latter would be historic - in full PPR, beating any WR season 2000-2014.
The floor seems reasonable...on the ceiling as crazy as it seems I think the targets (about 11 per game) are in line with the top wr's and he has elite hands which results in a very high catch % so the receptions aren't outlandish...TD's may be high. For consideration...Antonio Brown this year finished with 181 targets, 129 receptions, 1,698 yards and 13 tds...Demarius 184 targets, 111 receptions, 1,619 yards and 11 tds. Since becoming a starter after the bye week when they really started to rely on him he averaged 12.7 targets a game. Down the stretch when they were on a winning streak and heavily leaning on him he had 15, 15, 12 and 21 targets for 15.75/game. I anticipate that he'll be among the league leaders in targets when all is said and done so as crazy as those numbers look I think it's a justifiable ceiling.

At the end of the day the entire organization is giddy over this kid and konw they have a potential star on their hands. They are going to work all offseason on ways to continue to get him the ball. When they got him the ball the most this year they won 3 of the 4 games. They likely won't have a great run game unless things change dramatically and they'll likely have similar game scripts to this year where they were even/behind in most games so they needed to keep throwing the ball. Should be interesting to see what they do in the offseason...I expect they'll look to improve the line as that was an achilles heel this year.

 
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What are we projecting for 2015?

FLOOR

130 targets

80 receptions

1200 yards

8 TDs

CEILING

175 targets

120 receptions

1750 yards

16 TDs

The floor is the Victor Cruz average 2011-13, the ceiling is OBJ pro-rated 2014 (both rounded). The former would have been WR13 this year, the latter would be historic - in full PPR, beating any WR season 2000-2014.
The two best seasons by a 6-0 or shorter WR were Isaac Bruce (119/1781/13) and Antonio Brown (129/1698/13).

There aren't targets available for Bruce, but Brown had 181 targets.

After Bruce's year I expected him to put up double digit TD's every year - he only did it one more time.

Marvin Harrison had a string of years where he had 164-205 targets, 102-143 catches, 1413-1722 yards, and 11-15 TD's.

During those Harrison years the Colts had terrible WR's besides Harrison so Beckham's production will depend on Cruz's recovery and whether Randle or Corey Washington get better. If they don't then Eli will continue to feed the ball to Beckham like he did this year.

 
What are we projecting for 2015?

FLOOR

130 targets

80 receptions

1200 yards

8 TDs

CEILING

175 targets

120 receptions

1750 yards

16 TDs

The floor is the Victor Cruz average 2011-13, the ceiling is OBJ pro-rated 2014 (both rounded). The former would have been WR13 this year, the latter would be historic - in full PPR, beating any WR season 2000-2014.
The two best seasons by a 6-0 or shorter WR were Isaac Bruce (119/1781/13) and Antonio Brown (129/1698/13).

There aren't targets available for Bruce, but Brown had 181 targets.

After Bruce's year I expected him to put up double digit TD's every year - he only did it one more time.

Marvin Harrison had a string of years where he had 164-205 targets, 102-143 catches, 1413-1722 yards, and 11-15 TD's.

During those Harrison years the Colts had terrible WR's besides Harrison so Beckham's production will depend on Cruz's recovery and whether Randle or Corey Washington get better. If they don't then Eli will continue to feed the ball to Beckham like he did this year.
Corey Washington, Parker and Randle are irrelevant to Beckhams targets. Teams will happily let those scrubs eat all they want and you see where that got the giants early this year. Randle got a TON of targets early in the year and did nothing with them. Even if they all get A LOT better...Beckham>>>>>>>any of those guys. Cruz, if healthy May impact targets but I feel that the offense will improve as it did this year so the whole pie will likely increase.

Torrey Holt had some nice years as well during the Bruce years. It's pretty plain to see that his height hasn't hindered him so far and I don't expect it to with his elite speed, ball tracking, athleticism, hands and route running.

 
I didn't see anything special on that 63 yard catch today. Real bad defense.

Love his circus like catches and he will feast on weaker corners. But I have a fairly vivid vision of him getting wrecked going up for a one handed snag.

Would love to see him go against Seattle. That's the true litmus test for a receiver, imo.
Didn't you see that he played Seattle this season?

He lit Sherman up on a double-move on a 50-yard reception. ODB gets separation on coverage extremely well. But what hasn't been talked about much is his intelligence and route-running. ODB absorbed that playbook like a sponge.

 
What are we projecting for 2015?

FLOOR

130 targets

80 receptions

1200 yards

8 TDs

CEILING

175 targets

120 receptions

1750 yards

16 TDs

The floor is the Victor Cruz average 2011-13, the ceiling is OBJ pro-rated 2014 (both rounded). The former would have been WR13 this year, the latter would be historic - in full PPR, beating any WR season 2000-2014.
The two best seasons by a 6-0 or shorter WR were Isaac Bruce (119/1781/13) and Antonio Brown (129/1698/13).

There aren't targets available for Bruce, but Brown had 181 targets.
what about targets by weight?

 
As an OBJ owner in a few dynasty leagues I had no choice but to sell. He's been incredible this year but people thinking that's he's a top 5 wr are jumping the gun. He'll regress next year. Plus, if you want to put someone in the AJ Green/Julio class you have to be 100% sure. Even if everything was even on the field, he seems to have some knucklehead factor to him. Is he going to go to work this offseason or does he think he's made it and go out and party every night? Too risky at his current value, which I expect to only rise in the offseason.
Why didn't you wait to sell in the offseason if you think his price is going to go up?
My thoughts exactly.

 
As an OBJ owner in a few dynasty leagues I had no choice but to sell. He's been incredible this year but people thinking that's he's a top 5 wr are jumping the gun. He'll regress next year. Plus, if you want to put someone in the AJ Green/Julio class you have to be 100% sure. Even if everything was even on the field, he seems to have some knucklehead factor to him. Is he going to go to work this offseason or does he think he's made it and go out and party every night? Too risky at his current value, which I expect to only rise in the offseason.
Why didn't you wait to sell in the offseason if you think his price is going to go up?
My thoughts exactly.
Didn't you see his name? Nuff said.

 
As an OBJ owner in a few dynasty leagues I had no choice but to sell. He's been incredible this year but people thinking that's he's a top 5 wr are jumping the gun. He'll regress next year. Plus, if you want to put someone in the AJ Green/Julio class you have to be 100% sure. Even if everything was even on the field, he seems to have some knucklehead factor to him. Is he going to go to work this offseason or does he think he's made it and go out and party every night? Too risky at his current value, which I expect to only rise in the offseason.
Why didn't you wait to sell in the offseason if you think his price is going to go up?
My thoughts exactly.
Didn't you see his name? Nuff said.
:lol:

 
I don't own any sort of glasses that let me see into the future with 100% certainty. I also understand that OBJ is unlikely to keep up the insane pace that he put up this past season.

Having said that, I wonder what it would look like if Jerry Rice were a rookie in 2014? Would he put up better numbers than OBJ did? Would he have looked more dominant?

What I see with Beckham is a chance at greatness. Maybe his run this past season was an illusion, and he ends up leveling off at a WR2. Maybe he is actually really exceptional, and he fits right in with the Julio/Green/Dez/Brown tier. Maybe he is going to be one of the greatest of all time.

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Peyton Manning, Emmitt Smith etc, these guys were all rookies at one point. From what we've seen of Beckham so far, you'd have to be sticking your head in the sand not to at least acknowledge he might be one of those types of players.

Barring an unbelievable offer, I'm just not sure why you'd want to trade that away.

 
I think Watkins would have put up far better numbers in NY than Buffalo. Not saying he's better than ODB but he was definitely held back this year by crappy QB play (yes Eli and the Giants offense was way better than Manuel/what's his face)
Point is, you think the Giants would swap OBJ for Watkins right now??

Every GM probably has 100 examples from last year of players they ranked lower than others, but would rank it the other way today.

 
I don't own any sort of glasses that let me see into the future with 100% certainty. I also understand that OBJ is unlikely to keep up the insane pace that he put up this past season.

Having said that, I wonder what it would look like if Jerry Rice were a rookie in 2014? Would he put up better numbers than OBJ did? Would he have looked more dominant?

What I see with Beckham is a chance at greatness. Maybe his run this past season was an illusion, and he ends up leveling off at a WR2. Maybe he is actually really exceptional, and he fits right in with the Julio/Green/Dez/Brown tier. Maybe he is going to be one of the greatest of all time.

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Peyton Manning, Emmitt Smith etc, these guys were all rookies at one point. From what we've seen of Beckham so far, you'd have to be sticking your head in the sand not to at least acknowledge he might be one of those types of players.

Barring an unbelievable offer, I'm just not sure why you'd want to trade that away.
probably kind of mediocre with a lot of dropped balls

 
Kitrick Taylor said:
I don't own any sort of glasses that let me see into the future with 100% certainty. I also understand that OBJ is unlikely to keep up the insane pace that he put up this past season.

Having said that, I wonder what it would look like if Jerry Rice were a rookie in 2014? Would he put up better numbers than OBJ did? Would he have looked more dominant?

What I see with Beckham is a chance at greatness. Maybe his run this past season was an illusion, and he ends up leveling off at a WR2. Maybe he is actually really exceptional, and he fits right in with the Julio/Green/Dez/Brown tier. Maybe he is going to be one of the greatest of all time.

Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Peyton Manning, Emmitt Smith etc, these guys were all rookies at one point. From what we've seen of Beckham so far, you'd have to be sticking your head in the sand not to at least acknowledge he might be one of those types of players.

Barring an unbelievable offer, I'm just not sure why you'd want to trade that away.
Good post. One of the things that has really resonated with me is his desire to be great. You can see it on the field on nearly every play. He competes like mad for every ball, every route and plays with a ton of emotion. The Giants were a dumpster fire but he never played like it was a lost season and he was the most exciting part of the team in the last half of the season. Most players, especially rookie wrs, don't and can't lift a team like he did. There's also no way as a rookie that you can learn every route for every position without working hard and studying off the field. All players want to be great but to reach out to some of the best to play sports and ask their advice and what it takes to be great just shows the character and maturity of the kid as well.

He has the skills and drive to be one of the best ever IMO....he just needs to stay healthy

 
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Alot of Giants fans i know like ODB but dont love him because of his cocky attitude. I was shocked when multiple told me the same thing. Im a NYer but not a Goants fan.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Archer said:
I think Watkins would have put up far better numbers in NY than Buffalo. Not saying he's better than ODB but he was definitely held back this year by crappy QB play (yes Eli and the Giants offense was way better than Manuel/what's his face)
Point is, you think the Giants would swap OBJ for Watkins right now??
Of course not. Giants are thrilled with OBJ as they should be. Just saying I hope people don't give up on Watkins yet. I can't think of many worse offensives to be stuck in than his (with Jets and Raiders in that neighborhood as well)

 
ghostguy123 said:
Archer said:
I think Watkins would have put up far better numbers in NY than Buffalo. Not saying he's better than ODB but he was definitely held back this year by crappy QB play (yes Eli and the Giants offense was way better than Manuel/what's his face)
Point is, you think the Giants would swap OBJ for Watkins right now??
Of course not. Giants are thrilled with OBJ as they should be. Just saying I hope people don't give up on Watkins yet. I can't think of many worse offensives to be stuck in than his (with Jets and Raiders in that neighborhood as well)
I think Watkins will be a Dez, AJ Green, Julio in a couple years.

 

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