WR Sleepers vs RB Sleepers (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Seems every year people put out lists of sleepers. CBS just published another (pretty good, but obvious) one, and they had about as many WR as RB. 

I've personally had much more success with RB lottery tickets / sleepers than WRs. I've always felt WRs take longer to develop (3rd year WR theory) while often RBs are plug and play, value by opportunity/touches.

so I rarely, if ever buy into WR "sleepers" - I believe in WR "breakouts" more, like Moncrief for example; who've got track record and opportunity, where I think RBs just need opportunity. For that reason I usually use my late draft for RB lotto tickets instead of WRs, but I see leaguemates go for the rare 1st year WR who they think will break out but seldom does.'

curious what others here think - are there good examples of WR "sleepers"? Unknown, unproven commodities who come out of nowhere to fantasy relevance? Do you invest as heavily in them as RBs? 

 

[Ilov80s]

Tajae Sharpe and Kenny Stills are about as close to WR sleepers as there are beyond guys buried on depth charts waiting for injuries.

 

[tone1oc]

I don't do lottery tickets.. poor man tax'd

 

[Franknbeans]

Good RB's will emerge more quickly in their careers whereas most receivers take a little more time to learn the nuances of the position at the pro level. I think that is changing somewhat with seemingly more and more college programs playing pro style offenses and also some ridiculous talents like ODB.

 

[Biabreakable]

Busting The Third Year Wide Receiver Breakout Myth

The non-elite receivers did tend to break out a little later. However, as it turns out, Sterling Sharpe wasn’t unusual when compared to other elite receivers. Year 2 is actually the biggest breakout year, both in frequency and magnitude.

Now this study was done in 2011. The 2014 draft brought many 1st year WR breakouts as well as 2nd year breakouts. Such a great draft for WR that was.

Meanwhile the NFL has been consistently shifting to more passing since 2004 with no end to that trend in sight, which is creating more opportunity for WR overall and for them to break out sooner as well. At the same time this is reducing opportunities for RB and RB need to be more proficient in pass blocking as well as contribute as receivers to get playing time in an NFL that passes more than it did before. So the RB are not as plug and play as they once were, when their primary responsibility could be limited to just running the ball. Teams do not run the ball as much as they once were either limiting those players from making the instant impact.

So I would say that your perspectives about this may be a bit behind the times. Those axioms do not hold as true as they once did in the past in the current NFL environment.

For fantasy, many leagues have shifted to requiring that you start 3 or more WR. In the past most leagues only required that you start two. This changes the supply and demand dynamics of the positions, causing owners to dig deeper for quality WR than they did before.

Shout out to Drugrunner if he is still around and the minimal WR theory for dynasty that was pretty much aligned with the ideas of HSG's OP. Minimal WR theory means you try to acquire one or two elite WR prospects to start for your team (fulfilling the 2 WR requirement) but then to use the rest of your roster space on RB prospects who could break out. This was back in the days of stud RB theory, which was to draft RB with your first 3 (or more) picks because of how important they were, as well as the ready availability of WR on the waiver wire because of less demand for WR starters.

Try minimal WR theory in FF today, especially dynasty, especially PPR dynasty and the philosophy is completely reversed.  

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't do lottery tickets.. poor man tax'd

Then what do you draft in the last few rounds?

 

[Casting Couch]

Then what do you draft in the last few rounds?

He forfeits his picks, because he IS the most interesting man in the world.

 

[Ilov80s]

He forfeits his picks, because he IS the most interesting man in the world.

Hawk screech 

 

[tone1oc]

Then what do you draft in the last few rounds?

@Casting Couch hit it right on the head

 

[shadyridr]

Funchess

 

[strong]

i can say this year i completely switched strategies from a balanced approach to a young RB heavy + old vet receiver approach in my 3 year contract auction league. people were going heavy on receivers and super heavy on young receivers. (it's not a pure dyno league.) 

WR3/WR4s were going for RB3 prices. WR3s with upside, like Moncrief, went for RB2, fringe RB1, price.

after the draft, i'm holding 8 RBs and 5 WRs. one of those receivers is a dyno darling a year away from possibly paying off, but the other 4 are more established vets (sammy watkins & brandon marshall (had going into the draft), fitzgerald & emmanuel sanders (grabbed during the draft at decent prices)).

of my 8 RBs, 3 are rookies, 2 are second year guys and 2 are third year guys. 

it's not sexy but basically i went super young, unproven RBs except for frank gore and latavius murray and then vet receivers.

after i saw how much people were valuing receivers, going young RB and vet receiver was the only way i found value... 

 

[GrandpaRox]

Will Fuller

 

[beerbuff]

Lottery tickets with potential to produce week one making them hot waiver wire adds for me are Rob Kelley and Tyrell Williams. If Kelley produces he would be great trade bait for the Matt Jones owner.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lottery tickets with potential to produce week one making them hot waiver wire adds for me are Rob Kelley and Tyrell Williams

Fair, but not really the topic. Question is more about whether you buy into WR sleepers, since every year so many are touted and yet so few of them hit as compared to RBs.

 

[beerbuff]

Fair, but not really the topic. Question is more about whether you buy into WR sleepers, since every year so many are touted and yet so few of them hit as compared to RBs.

Other than trying to beat someone to the waiver wire, no. I think a RB sleeper is the better play.

 

[Judge Smails]

WR sleeper hits are few and far between on draft day.  I mean, you can get guys in good situations like Steve Smith recently in middle rounds, but you aren't going to find many gems real late.  Almost better to see patterns (targets, etc) and play the wire as the year goes on.  I look at it this way.  If Julio Jones goes down, it doesn't make whomever takes his place an automatic WR1.  If Zeke goes down, Alfred Morris does.  Same with Ware, Michael, etc. That's the difference.

 

[Kenny Powers]

WR sleeper hits are few and far between on draft day.  I mean, you can get guys in good situations like Steve Smith recently in middle rounds, but you aren't going to find many gems real late.  Almost better to see patterns (targets, etc) and play the wire as the year goes on.  I look at it this way.  If Julio Jones goes down, it doesn't make whomever takes his place an automatic WR1.  If Zeke goes down, Alfred Morris does.  Same with Ware, Michael, etc. That's the difference.

I agree with this thought process. RB sleepers pop up more frequently, but to me it is almost always complete luck of the draw because it is dependent on the starter or majority timeshare back getting injured. Even a guy like Devonta Freeman last year was drafted in most leagues, but without Coleman going down in week 2 (?) who knows how Freeman's 2015 season ends up and how many touches he would've had. WR to me is a complete crapshoot, you could draft a guy like Fuller or Sharpe but there's a better chance a handful of other WR's pop up weeks 1-2 and outproduce them, which in tow you're dropping said sleeper WR for.

 

[ponchsox]

WR pickups during the season usually end up in chasing points from a huge week. It seems like the Brandon Lloyd's only come up once in a while. Sleeper RBs in suddenly good situations tend to produce more consistently.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Diggs was a great pickup last year if you jumped on him early (thanks Biabreakable and a couple other advocates.) He faded down the stretch but it was a fun ride the first month.

That was unusual because there's usually a runup to a WR breaking out. Great OTAs lead to solid TC. There's a lot that goes into learning the craft of route running and getting timing/reads down with the QB.

Not that there aren't nuances to being a reliable RB - in today's league, pass pro matters as much or more as rushing ability - but the sleeper RBs aren't dependent on the other half of the connection like WRs are.

 

[shadrap]

WR sleeper hits are few and far between on draft day.  I mean, you can get guys in good situations like Steve Smith recently in middle rounds, but you aren't going to find many gems real late.  Almost better to see patterns (targets, etc) and play the wire as the year goes on.  I look at it this way.  If Julio Jones goes down, it doesn't make whomever takes his place an automatic WR1.  If Zeke goes down, Alfred Morris does.  Same with Ware, Michael, etc. That's the difference.

found that out the hard way.  Just because the #2 has the RB job doesn't mean he can produce at #1 numbers.    that is what I have learned

 

[shadrap]

Diggs was a great pickup last year if you jumped on him early (thanks Biabreakable and a couple other advocates.) He faded down the stretch but it was a fun ride the first month.

That was unusual because there's usually a runup to a WR breaking out. Great OTAs lead to solid TC. There's a lot that goes into learning the craft of route running and getting timing/reads down with the QB.

Not that there aren't nuances to being a reliable RB - in today's league, pass pro matters as much or more as rushing ability - but the sleeper RBs aren't dependent on the other half of the connection like WRs are.

you almost have to see or sense something a week in advance.   Before they break out. 

 

[acme]

He forfeits his picks, because he IS the most interesting man in the world.

Caoch Otis forfeits his first few picks... *HawkScreetch*

 

[Lash]

Stills

 

[Captain Hook]

How long is your FF memory?

Anquan Boldin in his rookie year - look at the amount of FAAB bid for him after Week 1

But rookie WR are more dependent on which teams they land on than RB. Also the attrition for RB is much great giving more guys chances in one year.

Tajae Sharpe was hardly a sleeper (unless you drafted early). Tyler Boyd shouldn't have been either (but I think some people didn't realize he was already WR2 for the Bengals - and potentially a target monster if A.J. Green misses a game due to the birth of his child as he said he would). OTOH I think Laquon Treadwell was drafted way too early (before Bridgewater went down) because he had several guys in front of him and would need to learn the pro game - something that RBs, aside from pass protection, don't have to worry about as much.

 

[Borden]

WR vs RB, when we include the lotto tickets/flyers RBs are a better gamble because of the value over replacement and path to opportunity. Last year there was 7 backs with 1000+ rushing yards and 17 with 800+. There were 22 WRs with 1000+ receiving yards and 36 with 800+. So, if you hit on a lotto ticket 1000 yard RB it's much more valuable than 1000 yard WR and more obvious. 

Edit: I erased a gigantic write up I had on sleepers vs lotto tickets/flyers vs breakouts. 

 

[Mister CIA]

Then what do you draft in the last few rounds?

Eddie Kennison.

 

[Shutout]

I don't think there really is a "sleeper" in the terms we remember them as and in relation to how they are promoted in media.  Anything can happen but the number of players that truly "come out of nowhere" are so far and few between now that it really isn't worth the collective effort so many people put into it.  The idea of an "unknown" player really doesn't fit any more.  Most hard core FF people aren't going to be saying "who?" when you mention nearly any likely relevant player as to where in years past (long time ago), you could genuinely name a player where a good number of people had never truly heard of the guy. 

But in the spirit of the topic, I'll toss in a couple of names of players I think will contribute much more in FF that what a lot of people probably think It is relative, however, as none of these guys are close to being unknown).

I think Anquan Boldin and Michael Floyd are good values this year.  Two very different levels of performance but I think Q could be a sneaky guy that helps you solidly limp through the injuries and byes in the tough weeks and Floyd could be a legit top Wr.  I think Pierre Garcon is a name who is largely forgotten but could be serviceable.

In dynasty, I think Trey Burton is a great end of bench guy to be thinking about. I think he will definitely have a larger role in the future.  

My 2c.

I 

 

[Dismattle]

Heres an interesting read on sleepers..  http://dystnow.com/2016/08/18/9-fantasy-sleepers/

AARON RODGERS:
The reason he’s on this list is because he’s not the number one quarterback being taken for the first time in 3 seasons.

Confused?  How about:

Jared Cook- Two words; Aaron Rodgers.

Sleepers now for the most part need to be considered based on what you believe others underestimate..

 

[Ilov80s]

Eddie Kennison.

lol might as well draft Sam Kinison. If you are going to miss, why miss by 2 inches?

 

[Megaton]

Out of the consensus Top 10 WR last year going into the season, 6 of them ended up in the top 20 in fantasy scoring (A. Brown, D. Thomas, ODJ Julio, Calvin, AJ Green).  Four more in the consensus Top 20 also finished top 20 (E. Sanders, Hopkins, Cooks, J Matthews).  Five more in the consensus 20-30 range finished top 20 (Watkins, Landry, Marshall, Maclin, and A. Robinson).  So 15 of the top 20 came from the consensus Top 30 picks.  So about a 50% chance at scoring a Top 20 WR from the Top 30 WR picks.  Only about 2 would have come from later round picks (E. Decker WR 32, L. Fitzgerald WR39) and about three were either lottery tickets or not drafted (Hurns at WR55, Crabtree at WR 56, and D. Baldwin at WR 63).  And only Baldwin finished in the Top 10. 

 

[Mike Anderson]

Shout out to Drugrunner if he is still around and the minimal WR theory for dynasty that was pretty much aligned with the ideas of HSG's OP. Minimal WR theory means you try to acquire one or two elite WR prospects to start for your team (fulfilling the 2 WR requirement) but then to use the rest of your roster space on RB prospects who could break out. This was back in the days of stud RB theory, which was to draft RB with your first 3 (or more) picks because of how important they were, as well as the ready availability of WR on the waiver wire because of less demand for WR starters.

Try minimal WR theory in FF today, especially dynasty, especially PPR dynasty and the philosophy is completely reversed.  

I still run Minimal WR to this day.  Thanks for the call out Bia.

 

[Biabreakable]

I still run Minimal WR to this day.  Thanks for the call out Bia.

How does this work out in a start up draft in leagues that require 2RB/3WR 1 flex in 1 point for PPR dynasty leagues?

I have always been more on the opposite side of that strategy in using more roster spots and resources on WR than RB. But I respect that there is more than one way to skin a cat and all strategies can be viable.