WR Sleepers (1 Viewer)

[The NFL-ony League]

Long time reader, new to posting. You guys are pretty sharp tools so please don't beat up on me too badly.

I am a believer of having strong rbs on my teams and am always looking for receivers who aren't getting a lot of hype but I think will perform well. I had read that one way to find these players is to look at who performed well during the last couple weeks of the nfl season. I also have thought, at times, that every team has to throw the ball, so the #1 wr on a crappy team should at least have some value, like D Mason in PPR leagues in 2007.

In 2007, I had some good 'feelings' and pegged it with B Edwards and W Welker, but I also missed with DJ Hackett, who I thought would perform better, and R Moss and B Marshall who others thought would perform well but I thought were wrong.

This year I think G Jennings, S Holmes, and B Berrian will be over hyped like M Clayton (Balt) and R Brown (Phi) were last year and not perform as well as a lot of people think.

I am having a difficult time getting excited about any potential sleepers this year. I am leaning towards:

-B Engram - Seattle is going to throw the ball a ton again this year and Hass seems to like Bobby.

-Cornering the 49er WR - Can't go wrong with the guy who ends up being the favorite in Mad Martzes Offense. If my roster will allow it, I will try to get Bryant, Bruce and Battle.

-Jacoby Jones/#2 WR Hou - I was pretty high on Jones until his off the field troubles and I truly think there will be two solid performers in Houston this year, maybe one if A Johnson gets hurt.

-J Cotchery - Like Fast Willie, if you touch the ball that much you are going to hit pay dirt more often.

Anyone YOU have your eyes on this year? Kevin Curtis, Mike 'Sky' Walker, the 'Rook' Buffalo drafts, Anthony Gonzalez, Ronald Curry?

Thanks!!

 

[madd futher]

I really don't believe that any WRs will explode this year.

Seriously, i like Gonzalez a lot. And I think Cotchery has alread proven he can put up numbers so I don't think he should be included here.

 

[zamboni]

The aforementioned Bryant Johnson is an interesting one. The offense will likely get less conservative with Martz, and perhaps a 49er WR will have some meaningful value for the first time in awhile.

Bruce's best days are almost certainly behind him, while Battle is steady and decent but not spectacular. That leaves Johnson, who's shown some skills in the past but buried behind Fitz and Boldin.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Welcome to FBG. The sleeper receivers I have my eye on this year are:

Demetrius Williams - disappointed owners last year, but is still a talented play-maker.

Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney - one of these two should emerge as the WR2 for the Patriots.

Isaac Bruce - the most reliable of the 49er receivers in the Martz offense

Marty Booker - he and Mark Bradley are the only receivers in Chicago

Jeherme Urban - produced decent numbers as the Cardinal WR3 last year and could again

 

[travdogg]

I'd agree with Berrian and possibly Jennings as busts, but Holmes will be a universal top-10 WR this year.

I think a good sleeper is Roddy White, people are trying hard to find reasons why last year was a fluke, but I think last year was only the beginning(this guy would have exploded sooner if not for Vick.) I don't see any reason why White won't continue to be a top-15ish WR.

Its very health dependent, but I could see one last top-10 year out of Harrison. Something like 1100-12 or something along those lines.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

Mark Bradley.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney - one of these two should emerge as the WR2 for the Patriots.

Disagree. Welker plays the wr2 and moves to the slot on 3 wr sets. So, you are really looking at the wr3. Also, I am uncertain why one has to emerge. Gaffney and Stallworth split wr3 snaps from the middle of the season on, so these two could just as easily split snaps or rotate play based on match ups.

 

[mjohnell]

Couple I like off the top of my head..

D.J. Hackett - like him as a good redzone target as Carolina's #2 assuming both he and Delhomme stay healthy

Bobby Engram - basically for the same reason you stated

Steve Smith (NYG) - will be paying attention to offseason to see if he can overtake Toomer

Drew Bennett - targets will increase without Bruce

Antonio Bryant - got my eye on the Tampa wr situation

Devery Henderson - willing to take a flier on a bounce-back year in a pass happy offense

Jax wr - don't know which one yet but will have my eye on what transpires in the offseason between Porter, Williams, Jones, Williamson, and Walker

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney - one of these two should emerge as the WR2 for the Patriots.

Disagree. Welker plays the wr2 and moves to the slot on 3 wr sets. So, you are really looking at the wr3. Also, I am uncertain why one has to emerge. Gaffney and Stallworth split wr3 snaps from the middle of the season on, so these two could just as easily split snaps or rotate play based on match ups.

Gaffney and Stallworth lined up wide with Welker in the slot. I know the numbers make it look like Welker was the WR2, but on the NFL level, Welker is the WR3 with Gaffney/Stallworth at WR2. Look at the stats Gaffney and Stallworth put up last year. It is not unreasonable to think Gaffney or Chad Jackson could be a decent sleeper wr.

 

[southeastjerome]

While I will admit he probably won't "explode", a WR sleeper that is on my radar is Arnaz Battle.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney - one of these two should emerge as the WR2 for the Patriots.

Disagree. Welker plays the wr2 and moves to the slot on 3 wr sets. So, you are really looking at the wr3. Also, I am uncertain why one has to emerge. Gaffney and Stallworth split wr3 snaps from the middle of the season on, so these two could just as easily split snaps or rotate play based on match ups.

Gaffney and Stallworth lined up wide with Welker in the slot. I know the numbers make it look like Welker was the WR2, but on the NFL level, Welker is the WR3 with Gaffney/Stallworth at WR2. Look at the stats Gaffney and Stallworth put up last year. It is not unreasonable to think Gaffney or Chad Jackson could be a decent sleeper wr.

Again, I disagree. When NE plays 2WR and 2 TE's, which they do quite a bit- Welker is almost always in. He plays almost every wr2 set, mainly because he is an absolutely tenacious run blocker. He simply moves to slot when they go three wide or when they on occasion split Watson all the way out.Edit to add: Welker played in 71% of NE's snaps.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney - one of these two should emerge as the WR2 for the Patriots.

Disagree. Welker plays the wr2 and moves to the slot on 3 wr sets. So, you are really looking at the wr3. Also, I am uncertain why one has to emerge. Gaffney and Stallworth split wr3 snaps from the middle of the season on, so these two could just as easily split snaps or rotate play based on match ups.

Gaffney and Stallworth lined up wide with Welker in the slot. I know the numbers make it look like Welker was the WR2, but on the NFL level, Welker is the WR3 with Gaffney/Stallworth at WR2. Look at the stats Gaffney and Stallworth put up last year. It is not unreasonable to think Gaffney or Chad Jackson could be a decent sleeper wr.

Again, I disagree. When NE plays 2WR and 2 TE's, which they do quite a bit- Welker is almost always in. He plays almost every wr2 set, mainly because he is an absolutely tenacious run blocker. He simply moves to slot when they go three wide or when they on occasion split Watson all the way out.Edit to add: Welker played in 71% of NE's snaps.

you point out the 2TE sets, but the Patriots ran 3WRs a lot more than the 2TE sets. If we are talking fantasy WR sleepers, a running formation is not really that big of a deal. Stallworth had 75 pass targets and Gaffney had 50. That is plenty enough to support either Jackson or Gaffney emerging in 2008.

 

[thecardiackid]

Chad Jackson and Jabar Gaffney - one of these two should emerge as the WR2 for the Patriots.

Disagree. Welker plays the wr2 and moves to the slot on 3 wr sets. So, you are really looking at the wr3. Also, I am uncertain why one has to emerge. Gaffney and Stallworth split wr3 snaps from the middle of the season on, so these two could just as easily split snaps or rotate play based on match ups.

Gaffney and Stallworth lined up wide with Welker in the slot. I know the numbers make it look like Welker was the WR2, but on the NFL level, Welker is the WR3 with Gaffney/Stallworth at WR2. Look at the stats Gaffney and Stallworth put up last year. It is not unreasonable to think Gaffney or Chad Jackson could be a decent sleeper wr.

Again, I disagree. When NE plays 2WR and 2 TE's, which they do quite a bit- Welker is almost always in. He plays almost every wr2 set, mainly because he is an absolutely tenacious run blocker. He simply moves to slot when they go three wide or when they on occasion split Watson all the way out.Edit to add: Welker played in 71% of NE's snaps.

you point out the 2TE sets, but the Patriots ran 3WRs a lot more than the 2TE sets. If we are talking fantasy WR sleepers, a running formation is not really that big of a deal. Stallworth had 75 pass targets and Gaffney had 50. That is plenty enough to support either Jackson or Gaffney emerging in 2008.

and you can find all the debate RE: Welker as the "NFL traditional" slot WR3 in one of the NE WR threads - too lazy to look it up, but it was thouroughly discussed.

 

[LionsFan78]

I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but one guy who I just have a gut feeling will finish the season as an almost every week start is...

Robert Meachem.

I just refuse to believe that with Drew Brees at QB, and nothing spectacular out of the TE position, that Colston will be the ONLY every week start at the WR position. The numbers are surely there every week, it's just been a different guy every time so far. I just have a feeling that Meachem will be given every opportunity this season to step up and lay claim to those numbers. Just a gut feeling, nothing more.

 

[Couch Potato]

I'm sure I'm in the minority here, but one guy who I just have a gut feeling will finish the season as an almost every week start is...Robert Meachem.I just refuse to believe that with Drew Brees at QB, and nothing spectacular out of the TE position, that Colston will be the ONLY every week start at the WR position. The numbers are surely there every week, it's just been a different guy every time so far. I just have a feeling that Meachem will be given every opportunity this season to step up and lay claim to those numbers. Just a gut feeling, nothing more.

I was scrolling down, reading the thread, thinking I was going to post Meachem's name when I got to the end, and then BAM! there he is in the post right before me. OK, you guys want a reach? I'll give you a reach. Limas Sweed, team as yet unknown. Devin Thomas may have a better career, but I'm prognosticating Sweed will be the Dwayne Bowe of 2008 rookies.

 

[-OZ-]

I'd agree with Berrian and possibly Jennings as busts, but Holmes will be a universal top-10 WR this year.

I was about to say the exact same thing. I actually traded Portis for Holmes (essentially) in one dynasty league this year where WRs are over-important. I know, many here will think that trade is horrible, so what. The point is I really like Holmes this year. Not sure I'd go with top 10, but top 20 fo' sho. Others I like (many of which I do not own):JarrettBurlesonMeachemSteve SmithMarvin HarrisonAnd the REACHLegedu "good is coming" Naanee (probably won't be startable most weeks in most leagues, but he'll do much better than anyone expects)When I'm looking for sleepers, I'll be looking at WRs behind good WRs, with a good QB. I won't go fishing for a supposed WR1 on a bad passing team. Only exceptions I'll make to this are Sydney Rice and the 49ers.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

It really is hard now to pick before the draft. You will have a pretty solid influx of receivers coming into the NFL to make an impact.

So how you see certain players now will be different in a few weeks from now.

Whether or not a rookie WR comes into the top 10......one WILL make an impact and most likely break the top 30.

Most people drafting right now in a redraft, would have a hard time putting 1 spefic rookie if not more of them into the top 30 right now.......I know I can't.

I will revisit this thread or threads just like this during after the draft and closer to the season to give you my honest opinion on the subject.........and thanks for posting.

 

[Donnybrook]

Over-hyped:

D.J. Hackett – When was the last time the #2 in Carolina had fantasy significance. Also,Why are people around here acting like Mohammad doesn’t exist.

Javon Walker – Weak O-line consistently trumps QB with a strong arm. I like the slot guy better in this offense.

Gonzalez – People are pimping him like Ben Troupe - you know, the year after everybody else on the team got hurt and Troupe was there to pick up the slack. Give me Harrison at his ADP.

Under-rated:

Nate Burleson

Marvin Harrison

Ronald Curry

 

[fun-b]

Bryant Johnson - Former 1st round pick by Arizona, who have brilliant scouting when it comes to WRs. Now he'll get the chance to shine, but only as much as Alex Smith will allow him.

Roddy White - Not so much a sleeper, but I look for his numbers to stay the same or improve, which is fantastic for what his ADP is going to be. A consitant Redman and a running game will only help his numbers.

Anthony Gonzalez - Harrison just recently has surgery on the OPPOSITE knee of the one that was giving him troubles last year. Two bad knees. There are reports of him missing training camp this year. I just don't see it happening for the Martian this year. Too bad. We all saw what Gonzo can do when he filled in for Marvin last year. Heading into the '09 season, Gonzo's stock will be towering.

Patrick Crayton - If T.O's old### gets injured, he's money. But even if T.O. plays 15-16 games, Crayton will still get his games to shine. You just have to be able to predict which games.

Bobby Engram - Where else is the ball gonna go?

 

[BoltBacker]

Over-hyped.J. Hackett – When was the last time the #2 in Carolina had fantasy significance. Also,Why are people around here acting like Mohammad doesn’t exist. Javon Walker – Weak O-line consistently trumps QB with a strong arm. I like the slot guy better in this offense. Gonzalez – People are pimping him like Ben Troupe - you know, the year after everybody else on the team got hurt and Troupe was there to pick up the slack. Give me Harrison at his ADP. Under-rated: Nate Burleson Marvin HarrisonRonald Curry

Agree with every one.

 

[TS Garp]

Surprised that there hasn't been a Vincent Jackson mention yet. I'm sure people feel burned by him, but he seems like a prototypical post-hype sleeper and he really emerged in the playoffs. He looked like a completely different player -- much more confident and reliable. With Gates potentially being limited early in the season, I think you could see the Chargers look to Jackson more, and he's able to build on what he did in the playoffs, he could deliver on what people were expecting last year.

 

[Fullback Fro]

Nate Burleson - Had a good year last year. Hackets Gone, Branch is limited. Has a chance to excell.

Wilford - Suprisingly Big contract in Miami. Could be frequently targeted.

Antonio Bryant - knucklehead may find himself as the most talented wr after Galloway's old body rebels.

Patten - Put up some Monster Target games last year. Earned coaches and Brees trust. 75 Receptions is in reach.

Colbert - #2 in Devner? EEEEE is not mr reliable.

 

[TS Garp]

Nate Burleson - Had a good year last year. Hackets Gone, Branch is limited. Has a chance to excell.Wilford - Suprisingly Big contract in Miami. Could be frequently targeted.Antonio Bryant - knucklehead may find himself as the most talented wr after Galloway's old body rebels.Patten - Put up some Monster Target games last year. Earned coaches and Brees trust. 75 Receptions is in reach.Colbert - #2 in Devner? EEEEE is not mr reliable.

Burleson is a good call.Either Reggie Williams or (I hate to say it) Jerry Porter has a chance to emerge in Jacksonville. Del Rio is calling Porter their #1, for what that's worth (which is probably nothing).

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I think some of these guys, like Cotchery and Engram, will have an appropriate ADP and may not exactly be "sleepers."

I do like Sidney Rice -- he could easily match or top Berrian's stats.

Chris Chambers may be undervalued, but, I dunno, he's usually overvalued. Keeping my eye on him.

I also like Roddy White.

 

[The NFL-ony League]

Thanks for the feedback.

Like I said, I like Cotchery's potential a lot. I have seen him ranked in the upper thirties, granted most current rankings are dynasty, but I think he has a lot of potential and if he can gel with Clemmens or whoever he could end up a top 10 wr. Didn't he break a bunch of T Holt's records @ State.

I always have hope for R Curry. I know it's an IF but man but if he had not had those achilles injuries and if he could have had some consistent QB play .......

Although there is always potential there, I do not see any consistency from the other guys in NE. Brady (or maybe Bellicheck) is sooo fickle Gabriel, then Caldwell in 2006, then 'Eyes wide open' gets released, then Stallworth, then Gaffney. With Watson fully healthy the only consistency there will be Welker.

Don't even want to touch Chicago's wrs. Maybe if they got a stud in the draft, but they have other more pressing needs, like a whole new team.

I just think Santonio is not going to end up being a top 10 wr which is where his ADP will be. Pitt has great offensive talent but I truly think he will end up being the 4th best weapon. Ben loves Ward and Miller especially in the red zone and FWP is going to be healthy. The only way Santonio lives up to the hype is if he rips off a bunch of 80 yd tds ala Lee Evans 2007.

I guess there have been a couple of unprecedented rookies of fantasy relevance lately Clayton, Colston, and Bowe. I am pretty curious to see who Dallas ends up getting. It's is just so hard for these guys to adapt quickly to the NFL.

I think there is something 'off' with Burleson. Great talent, but ...

I guess I am just looking for that guy who will have a 30+ ADP who ends up top 15 or the guy in the 20's who could be top 10.

 

[Gamma1210]

Thanks for the feedback.Like I said, I like Cotchery's potential a lot. I have seen him ranked in the upper thirties, granted most current rankings are dynasty, but I think he has a lot of potential and if he can gel with Clemmens or whoever he could end up a top 10 wr. Didn't he break a bunch of T Holt's records @ State.I always have hope for R Curry. I know it's an IF but man but if he had not had those achilles injuries and if he could have had some consistent QB play .......Although there is always potential there, I do not see any consistency from the other guys in NE. Brady (or maybe Bellicheck) is sooo fickle Gabriel, then Caldwell in 2006, then 'Eyes wide open' gets released, then Stallworth, then Gaffney. With Watson fully healthy the only consistency there will be Welker.Don't even want to touch Chicago's wrs. Maybe if they got a stud in the draft, but they have other more pressing needs, like a whole new team.I just think Santonio is not going to end up being a top 10 wr which is where his ADP will be. Pitt has great offensive talent but I truly think he will end up being the 4th best weapon. Ben loves Ward and Miller especially in the red zone and FWP is going to be healthy. The only way Santonio lives up to the hype is if he rips off a bunch of 80 yd tds ala Lee Evans 2007.I guess there have been a couple of unprecedented rookies of fantasy relevance lately Clayton, Colston, and Bowe. I am pretty curious to see who Dallas ends up getting. It's is just so hard for these guys to adapt quickly to the NFL.I think there is something 'off' with Burleson. Great talent, but ...I guess I am just looking for that guy who will have a 30+ ADP who ends up top 15 or the guy in the 20's who could be top 10.

If you are looking for current ADPs on these WRs, look the the PDSLs going on in the mock draft forum. You might be suprised.

 

[Interseptopus]

A lot of you guys had some great ideas on who might break out

I was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol.

When looking at sleepers, a typical rule of thumb is to not get caught up in the "flavor of the year," whether that be rookies, new FA, whatever. This year everyone will be excited about the new rookies, forgetting about last year's crop. That's where the smart fantasy owner makes his steals. Last year a lot of guys liked vincent jackson, drew bennett, Reggie Brown, among others. This year I think is where you remember those guys and take a gamble.

Here's who I would think might break out...

Chris Chambers: with SD he really started to click with Rivers at the end. He was a top 10 WR not too long ago in a good offense... now he's in one of the best offenses in the league. Forget Vincent Jackson, this guy is the #1... and he's shown what he can do in an offense with a good QB and RB in his first couple years in MIA

Reggie Brown: I was big on him last year, but I think I was one year off on his break out season. I see next year as a definate possibility. In the last 4 games he averaged 5.5 receptions, 65.5 yards, and .5 TDs.... that's 15 fp/game in a PPR league. Solid for a #2 WR

Deion Branch: Everyone loves Burleson in that offense. Before he got hurt, Branch was potentially a top 10 WR with almost 6 receptions a game and 100 yards a game. When he came back he did very well, but was out for so long. After an offseason to get healthy and back in the offense.... I think he'll be huge.

Bryant Johnson is a good one, but I think he'll be the "obvious" choice on draft day, with lots of people gunning for him.

Drew Bennett: He was a sleeper last year in STL, but he was behind Bruce. I think this year is his coming out party.

Some people like Berrian. I do not. I think he's a #2 WR thrust into a #1 WR role, in which he won't be AS good as he can be as the #2 WR.

But, it's a crapshoot. I think the list I gave has potential to break out this year and make a fantasy impact

 

[Maroney=Speed]

A lot of you guys had some great ideas on who might break outI was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol. When looking at sleepers, a typical rule of thumb is to not get caught up in the "flavor of the year," whether that be rookies, new FA, whatever. This year everyone will be excited about the new rookies, forgetting about last year's crop. That's where the smart fantasy owner makes his steals. Last year a lot of guys liked vincent jackson, drew bennett, Reggie Brown, among others. This year I think is where you remember those guys and take a gamble.Here's who I would think might break out...Chris Chambers: with SD he really started to click with Rivers at the end. He was a top 10 WR not too long ago in a good offense... now he's in one of the best offenses in the league. Forget Vincent Jackson, this guy is the #1... and he's shown what he can do in an offense with a good QB and RB in his first couple years in MIAReggie Brown: I was big on him last year, but I think I was one year off on his break out season. I see next year as a definate possibility. In the last 4 games he averaged 5.5 receptions, 65.5 yards, and .5 TDs.... that's 15 fp/game in a PPR league. Solid for a #2 WRDeion Branch: Everyone loves Burleson in that offense. Before he got hurt, Branch was potentially a top 10 WR with almost 6 receptions a game and 100 yards a game. When he came back he did very well, but was out for so long. After an offseason to get healthy and back in the offense.... I think he'll be huge.Bryant Johnson is a good one, but I think he'll be the "obvious" choice on draft day, with lots of people gunning for him. Drew Bennett: He was a sleeper last year in STL, but he was behind Bruce. I think this year is his coming out party. Some people like Berrian. I do not. I think he's a #2 WR thrust into a #1 WR role, in which he won't be AS good as he can be as the #2 WR. But, it's a crapshoot. I think the list I gave has potential to break out this year and make a fantasy impact

'I was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol'. Really I would never had guessed. But again nice post agree on just about everything you said.

 

[Interseptopus]

A lot of you guys had some great ideas on who might break outI was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol. When looking at sleepers, a typical rule of thumb is to not get caught up in the "flavor of the year," whether that be rookies, new FA, whatever. This year everyone will be excited about the new rookies, forgetting about last year's crop. That's where the smart fantasy owner makes his steals. Last year a lot of guys liked vincent jackson, drew bennett, Reggie Brown, among others. This year I think is where you remember those guys and take a gamble.Here's who I would think might break out...Chris Chambers: with SD he really started to click with Rivers at the end. He was a top 10 WR not too long ago in a good offense... now he's in one of the best offenses in the league. Forget Vincent Jackson, this guy is the #1... and he's shown what he can do in an offense with a good QB and RB in his first couple years in MIAReggie Brown: I was big on him last year, but I think I was one year off on his break out season. I see next year as a definate possibility. In the last 4 games he averaged 5.5 receptions, 65.5 yards, and .5 TDs.... that's 15 fp/game in a PPR league. Solid for a #2 WRDeion Branch: Everyone loves Burleson in that offense. Before he got hurt, Branch was potentially a top 10 WR with almost 6 receptions a game and 100 yards a game. When he came back he did very well, but was out for so long. After an offseason to get healthy and back in the offense.... I think he'll be huge.Bryant Johnson is a good one, but I think he'll be the "obvious" choice on draft day, with lots of people gunning for him. Drew Bennett: He was a sleeper last year in STL, but he was behind Bruce. I think this year is his coming out party. Some people like Berrian. I do not. I think he's a #2 WR thrust into a #1 WR role, in which he won't be AS good as he can be as the #2 WR. But, it's a crapshoot. I think the list I gave has potential to break out this year and make a fantasy impact

'I was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol'. Really I would never had guessed. But again nice post agree on just about everything you said.

For 2 years I tried to grab sleeper WRs and it never worked out. But the nfor the last 2 years I went for proven players such as Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, Driver... and came up short again. I think I've finally got it this year thoughGlad I'm not off my rocker on my sleepers though. I really haven't looked much at rankings this year or where people ended up, so that was more of the off the top of my head

 

[On The Rocks]

This may be a bit of a deep sleeper but I like Steve Smith with the Giants.

After Shockey went down, he started getting some quality looks.

 

[TS Garp]

A lot of you guys had some great ideas on who might break outI was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol. When looking at sleepers, a typical rule of thumb is to not get caught up in the "flavor of the year," whether that be rookies, new FA, whatever. This year everyone will be excited about the new rookies, forgetting about last year's crop. That's where the smart fantasy owner makes his steals. Last year a lot of guys liked vincent jackson, drew bennett, Reggie Brown, among others. This year I think is where you remember those guys and take a gamble.Here's who I would think might break out...Chris Chambers: with SD he really started to click with Rivers at the end. He was a top 10 WR not too long ago in a good offense... now he's in one of the best offenses in the league. Forget Vincent Jackson, this guy is the #1... and he's shown what he can do in an offense with a good QB and RB in his first couple years in MIAReggie Brown: I was big on him last year, but I think I was one year off on his break out season. I see next year as a definate possibility. In the last 4 games he averaged 5.5 receptions, 65.5 yards, and .5 TDs.... that's 15 fp/game in a PPR league. Solid for a #2 WRDeion Branch: Everyone loves Burleson in that offense. Before he got hurt, Branch was potentially a top 10 WR with almost 6 receptions a game and 100 yards a game. When he came back he did very well, but was out for so long. After an offseason to get healthy and back in the offense.... I think he'll be huge.Bryant Johnson is a good one, but I think he'll be the "obvious" choice on draft day, with lots of people gunning for him. Drew Bennett: He was a sleeper last year in STL, but he was behind Bruce. I think this year is his coming out party. Some people like Berrian. I do not. I think he's a #2 WR thrust into a #1 WR role, in which he won't be AS good as he can be as the #2 WR. But, it's a crapshoot. I think the list I gave has potential to break out this year and make a fantasy impact

'I was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol'. Really I would never had guessed. But again nice post agree on just about everything you said.

For 2 years I tried to grab sleeper WRs and it never worked out. But the nfor the last 2 years I went for proven players such as Chad Johnson, Fitzgerald, Driver... and came up short again. I think I've finally got it this year thoughGlad I'm not off my rocker on my sleepers though. I really haven't looked much at rankings this year or where people ended up, so that was more of the off the top of my head

I've gone back and forth on this for many years also. I'm starting to think the best solution is to grab one stud WR and then not take another one for at least 6 rounds...then load up on upside WR's. Not necessarily the make-or-break trendy guys, but a mix of old reliable types and younger types who could break out.

 

[az_prof]

One guy I really like is Reggie Williams. I know he has been a disappointment thus far, but last year his TD total was impressive and I think he finally earned the respect of Del Rio. He is the most talented Wr on the roster and is capable of putting up good numbers if they would feature him. This is the year they finally do so if he comes into camp and is really professional and ready to work and does what Del Rio wants.

Another guy I like for THIS year is Javon Walker. I don't like him long term because of the knee issues, but I think the knee will be ok this year and he will be the featured WR in that Oakland offense.

Ted Ginn Jr. He is the guy in Miami and he came on at the end of last year very strong. He has the ability to be a top 20 WR in the NFL and I expect him to be the leading WR in Miami and somewhere in the 20-30 for fantasy in the NFL. Remember, he was coming back from an injury last year, which delayed his development, yet he still looked very good late in the year.

Steve Smith--not THAT one--New York Giants: He really showed at the end of the season and in playoffs that he can play in the NFL and he has a good QB who can spread the ball around at this point in his career. I like him to take over the WR2 position for Toomer and to put up better numbers than a more heralded rookie--Gonzalez, who will see his PT drop with a healthy Harrison.

Harrison: This guy is a pro and he will be back for at least another year of top 20 performance.

Chad Jackson: This is a boom or bust guy because this year he either explodes or he could totally disappear once and for all if he doesn't. I think Welker is overrated and teams will scheme to stop him next year. But Jackson has featured WR potential and the only thing that has held him back is injuries. That's not uncommon for rookie WRs and is one reason why they often don't emerge until the second or third years. This is Jackson's third year and I think he will be playing opposite Moss most of the time, and he could produce beyond anyone's imagination.

Greg Jennings: with Favre retiring and Driver still around (for the moment), he won't be valued as highly as he should. But ironically I think Rodgers will rely on him more than Favre did and I think this is the year the wheels fall off for Driver.

Lee Evans: the guy had a down year because of QB play and a general decline in the offense, but with a year of experience under his belt I expect Edwards to be improved and that should enable him to get the ball deep to Evans more often. Plus, I see a high rookie pick coming in and relieving some of the double team pressure on Evans. He will be devalued compared to his real value.

 

[TS Garp]

Greg Jennings: with Favre retiring and Driver still around (for the moment), he won't be valued as highly as he should. But ironically I think Rodgers will rely on him more than Favre did and I think this is the year the wheels fall off for Driver.

Guess it depends on the league, but I think he'll be overvalued by many owners.

 

[az_prof]

Couple I like off the top of my head..D.J. Hackett - like him as a good redzone target as Carolina's #2 assuming both he and Delhomme stay healthyBobby Engram - basically for the same reason you statedSteve Smith (NYG) - will be paying attention to offseason to see if he can overtake ToomerDrew Bennett - targets will increase without BruceAntonio Bryant - got my eye on the Tampa wr situationDevery Henderson - willing to take a flier on a bounce-back year in a pass happy offenseJax wr - don't know which one yet but will have my eye on what transpires in the offseason between Porter, Williams, Jones, Williamson, and Walker

hackett: I only see room for Steve Smith to be a fantasy star--so unless he gets hurt I don't see Hackett as much of a sleeper.Steve Smith: I agreeDrew Bennett: he's no sure thing, but he could surprise and has a new opportunity with Bruce gone.Antonio Bryant: not in a million years.Devry Henderson: he won't hardly sniff the field as a healthy Meachem will blow him away.Jax WR: I see Reggie Williams as the guy unless Mike Walker can finally get healthy, but that seems unlikely. Porter had numerous opportunities in Oakland and never did become a star; why would he do so in Jacksonville, no Mecca for Wrs???

 

[az_prof]

A lot of you guys had some great ideas on who might break outI was always that guy who drafted good RBs and went with uderrated WRs I thought would break out... never really worked for me. lol. When looking at sleepers, a typical rule of thumb is to not get caught up in the "flavor of the year," whether that be rookies, new FA, whatever. This year everyone will be excited about the new rookies, forgetting about last year's crop. That's where the smart fantasy owner makes his steals. Last year a lot of guys liked vincent jackson, drew bennett, Reggie Brown, among others. This year I think is where you remember those guys and take a gamble.Here's who I would think might break out...Chris Chambers: with SD he really started to click with Rivers at the end. He was a top 10 WR not too long ago in a good offense... now he's in one of the best offenses in the league. Forget Vincent Jackson, this guy is the #1... and he's shown what he can do in an offense with a good QB and RB in his first couple years in MIAReggie Brown: I was big on him last year, but I think I was one year off on his break out season. I see next year as a definate possibility. In the last 4 games he averaged 5.5 receptions, 65.5 yards, and .5 TDs.... that's 15 fp/game in a PPR league. Solid for a #2 WRDeion Branch: Everyone loves Burleson in that offense. Before he got hurt, Branch was potentially a top 10 WR with almost 6 receptions a game and 100 yards a game. When he came back he did very well, but was out for so long. After an offseason to get healthy and back in the offense.... I think he'll be huge.Bryant Johnson is a good one, but I think he'll be the "obvious" choice on draft day, with lots of people gunning for him. Drew Bennett: He was a sleeper last year in STL, but he was behind Bruce. I think this year is his coming out party. Some people like Berrian. I do not. I think he's a #2 WR thrust into a #1 WR role, in which he won't be AS good as he can be as the #2 WR. But, it's a crapshoot. I think the list I gave has potential to break out this year and make a fantasy impact

Chambers: I am not a believer. Miami let him go for a reason, which is that he doesn't have great hands or great ability to get separation. Reggie Brown: he is still young enough that he could prove us wrong, but my feeling is that what we saw last year is about as good as he gets. One positive, however, is that McNabb should be fully recovered from his injury and Brown did do better at the end of the year as McNabb was also improving.Branch: he has had two years in the Seattle offense now and he hasn't done anything. He never did have a great year in NE. He has never had a thousand yards or even 6 TDs in a season. B. Johnson: I like his chances as he has never had a chance to be featured and he now is the clear go-to guy in a SF offense with MartzDrew Bennett: he will never be a WR1 or even WR2, but he could be a WR3 this year. Berrian: I think his numbers will fall off some; hard to see how being in MN could improve his numbers.

 

[JPeso]

Porter had numerous opportunities in Oakland and never did become a star; why would he do so in Jacksonville, no Mecca for Wrs???

Even Randy's star didn't shine in Oakland.

 

[az_prof]

Long time reader, new to posting. You guys are pretty sharp tools so please don't beat up on me too badly.I am a believer of having strong rbs on my teams and am always looking for receivers who aren't getting a lot of hype but I think will perform well. I had read that one way to find these players is to look at who performed well during the last couple weeks of the nfl season. I also have thought, at times, that every team has to throw the ball, so the #1 wr on a crappy team should at least have some value, like D Mason in PPR leagues in 2007.In 2007, I had some good 'feelings' and pegged it with B Edwards and W Welker, but I also missed with DJ Hackett, who I thought would perform better, and R Moss and B Marshall who others thought would perform well but I thought were wrong.This year I think G Jennings, S Holmes, and B Berrian will be over hyped like M Clayton (Balt) and R Brown (Phi) were last year and not perform as well as a lot of people think.I am having a difficult time getting excited about any potential sleepers this year. I am leaning towards:-B Engram - Seattle is going to throw the ball a ton again this year and Hass seems to like Bobby.-Cornering the 49er WR - Can't go wrong with the guy who ends up being the favorite in Mad Martzes Offense. If my roster will allow it, I will try to get Bryant, Bruce and Battle.-Jacoby Jones/#2 WR Hou - I was pretty high on Jones until his off the field troubles and I truly think there will be two solid performers in Houston this year, maybe one if A Johnson gets hurt.-J Cotchery - Like Fast Willie, if you touch the ball that much you are going to hit pay dirt more often.Anyone YOU have your eyes on this year? Kevin Curtis, Mike 'Sky' Walker, the 'Rook' Buffalo drafts, Anthony Gonzalez, Ronald Curry?Thanks!!

I can't argue with Engram but I don't think he will be a sleeper, per se.Jacoby Jones? I don't see this. He didn't show me that he had the talent last year to step up.Cotchery? He is still second fiddle for now to Coles and so I doubt anything changes much.Curtis: about the same as last yearMike Walker: needs to get healthy and the emergence of Reggie W. last year and the addition of Porter doesn't help him get on the field.Gonzalez: will be a huge disappointment.Curry? No way. Javon Walker will take over in Oakland.

 

[az_prof]

Porter had numerous opportunities in Oakland and never did become a star; why would he do so in Jacksonville, no Mecca for Wrs???

Even Randy's star didn't shine in Oakland.

Yes, but Porter was there back when the sun was still shining on Oakland. The guy is entering his 9th year in the NFL and he has yet to have a true breakout year!!!! About the only guy who has ever broken out and made a huge impact beyond the fifth year is Housh. And Jacksonville is not a good place for WRs; it isn't like he landed a starting job in Ind or NE or a Mike Martz offense. They are a run-first team that doesn't feature any one WR. Usually when WRs change teams it is NOT good; Moss to NE is the exception. And, Jerry Porter is no Randy Moss.

 

[Interseptopus]

Branch: he has had two years in the Seattle offense now and he hasn't done anything. He never did have a great year in NE. He has never had a thousand yards or even 6 TDs in a season.

I disagree with your evaluation of Chambers too, but that's not a fight worth picking. Agree to disagree on that. For Branch though...Yeah, 2 years in that offense...In 2006 he was new to the team. New to any offense takes a while to get adjusted. Last year everyone was big on him. One full year under his belt, the #1 WR position for his taking... however, last year he got HURT. Hard to "do anything" when you're hurt. Before he got hurt:7/1226/77/17/130hurt week 5He came back week 11 still banged up and finished the season:49/661/4 in 10 games (one of those games he got hurt in)... so he was on pace for: 78 receptions, 1057 yards, 6 TDs... so in other words a CAREER season. 13.7 fantasy points per game, pretty solid for a guy who played the second half of the season banged up. Him and Hasselbeck clicked really well. Some may like Burleson... he hasn't done a thing to show he can be consistant every week, Branch has. Someone has to be the #1 WR in that offense, and it won't be Burleson.... it'll be Branch. Had Branch not been hurt, he would have posted career numbers. So much for "not doing anything in two years." He'll be a top 20 WR this year, worthy of a #2 WR start.

 

[az_prof]

Branch: he has had two years in the Seattle offense now and he hasn't done anything. He never did have a great year in NE. He has never had a thousand yards or even 6 TDs in a season.

I disagree with your evaluation of Chambers too, but that's not a fight worth picking. Agree to disagree on that. For Branch though...Yeah, 2 years in that offense...In 2006 he was new to the team. New to any offense takes a while to get adjusted. Last year everyone was big on him. One full year under his belt, the #1 WR position for his taking... however, last year he got HURT. Hard to "do anything" when you're hurt. Before he got hurt:7/1226/77/17/130hurt week 5He came back week 11 still banged up and finished the season:49/661/4 in 10 games (one of those games he got hurt in)... so he was on pace for: 78 receptions, 1057 yards, 6 TDs... so in other words a CAREER season. 13.7 fantasy points per game, pretty solid for a guy who played the second half of the season banged up. Him and Hasselbeck clicked really well. Some may like Burleson... he hasn't done a thing to show he can be consistant every week, Branch has. Someone has to be the #1 WR in that offense, and it won't be Burleson.... it'll be Branch. Had Branch not been hurt, he would have posted career numbers. So much for "not doing anything in two years." He'll be a top 20 WR this year, worthy of a #2 WR start.

I could be wrong about Branch, and no doubt injuries have impeded his progress in Seattle. However, little, nagging injuries have bedevilled his entire career and at some point that itself becomes a negative. One thing I wonder about in your response, and I have never done a statistical analysis so this is just my general impression: but it seems to me when WRs change teams it is more often bad than good. And, it seems to me that when a guy who has produced goes to a new team and doesn't immediately produce as well or better that he usually falls permanently or until he goes to yet a third team. The idea that 'he will improve as he learns the offense' isn't usually the problem. The problem usually is that his skills don't fit the type of offense being run, or maybe he is on a team that runs more or spreads the ball around more than his prior team, or some such thing. Think of Joey Porter who was good in Seattle and then spent an eternity rotting in Dalls before he finally went to Tampa and was good again. Think about Moss going to Oakland0-he didn't get better his second year after learning the offense--and he didn't explode again until he went to a new team. In Branch's case the bottom line is that he has never been a great Wr--only a good one. To me he looks like a WR2, not a WR1.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Don't forget that Branch is coming off a very serious knee injury and may start the season on the PUP list - or worse.

 

[omahabrad]

I like:

Burleson

Bryant

Meachum

But these seem to be the trendy picks. So they might not be as much a sleeper as I think they are.

For rookies if Earl Bennet rejoins Cutler in Denver, I'll end up taking him pretty high just for the fact that Cutler seems to lock on to his favorites.

 

[travdogg]

Usually when WRs change teams it is NOT good; Moss to NE is the exception. And, Jerry Porter is no Randy Moss.

I don't know about that statement. Lately it seems guys aren't having any problems with new teams. Its not just Randy Moss.Santana Moss and Plaxico Burress where just fine in 05'. Welker did well last year. Walker in 06' with Denver. I wouldn't be shocked if Porter or Bryant Johnson had career years this year(BJ almost has to)

 

[Interseptopus]

Usually when WRs change teams it is NOT good; Moss to NE is the exception. And, Jerry Porter is no Randy Moss.

I don't know about that statement. Lately it seems guys aren't having any problems with new teams. Its not just Randy Moss.Santana Moss and Plaxico Burress where just fine in 05'. Welker did well last year. Walker in 06' with Denver. I wouldn't be shocked if Porter or Bryant Johnson had career years this year(BJ almost has to)

In 2003 Peerless Price went from 94/1200/9 to never having above 65/900/3...MeShawn Johnson went from being a dominant WR in NYJ to damn near nothing in TB/CARDerrick Mason went from 95/1100/7 to cracking 86+ receptions only once, barely cracking 1000 yards, and scoring a total of 10 TDs in 3 years with BALNate Burleson went from 68/1000/9 to 50/900 in SEAMusin Muhammad went from a 60 rec/900-1000 WR in CAR to an afterthought in CHIWhat I'd say happens is that it takes a WR a year to get used to the system, QB, etc and THEN he can finally make an impact. Sure, you're right, Bryant will have a career year... but that doesn't take much seeing as how Johnson's best numbers are 49/530/4 That's about as safe of a prediction as saying the sun will rise in the East tomorrow... Even if he has a 60/850/5 season, that's not worth of starting on a fantasy team but it's a "career" year...

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Like anything else, you've got to weigh WRs changing teams on a case-by-case basis. I assign a negative value to those WRs by default, but it's more damning for guys who are not established as great individual talents. Guys like TO, Moss, etc. are great in and of themselves, and as long as they went to a team with a good QB I wouldn't drop their value at all.

 

[geoff8695]

I've gone back and forth on this for many years also. I'm starting to think the best solution is to grab one stud WR and then not take another one for at least 6 rounds...then load up on upside WR's. Not necessarily the make-or-break trendy guys, but a mix of old reliable types and younger types who could break out.

It all depends on the flow of your draft and I would never pass on an outstanding value at WR if it were to present itself, however this is something I've also attempted in larger leagues and 'start two QB' where you feel the need to grab 3+ RBs and/or 2 QBs in the first 6 or 7 rounds. As long as you 'hit' with your 'stud' WR and one or more of your young 'breakout' types then this can be a solid approach.

 

[JPeso]

I've gone back and forth on this for many years also. I'm starting to think the best solution is to grab one stud WR and then not take another one for at least 6 rounds...then load up on upside WR's. Not necessarily the make-or-break trendy guys, but a mix of old reliable types and younger types who could break out.

It all depends on the flow of your draft and I would never pass on an outstanding value at WR if it were to present itself, however this is something I've also attempted in larger leagues and 'start two QB' where you feel the need to grab 3+ RBs and/or 2 QBs in the first 6 or 7 rounds. As long as you 'hit' with your 'stud' WR and one or more of your young 'breakout' types then this can be a solid approach.

I missed a few times with J-Walk as my WR1 last year.

 

[TS Garp]

I've gone back and forth on this for many years also. I'm starting to think the best solution is to grab one stud WR and then not take another one for at least 6 rounds...then load up on upside WR's. Not necessarily the make-or-break trendy guys, but a mix of old reliable types and younger types who could break out.

It all depends on the flow of your draft and I would never pass on an outstanding value at WR if it were to present itself, however this is something I've also attempted in larger leagues and 'start two QB' where you feel the need to grab 3+ RBs and/or 2 QBs in the first 6 or 7 rounds. As long as you 'hit' with your 'stud' WR and one or more of your young 'breakout' types then this can be a solid approach.

Yeah, in the league in question, my big money local league that I've been doing for 15+ years, you have the option to start 2 QB's, which virtually everyone does. I think the key with this strategy, as you say, is that you need that stud WR to come through. If he either flops or even gives you 1100/5 instead of the 1300/10 that you were counting on, you're in a hole. Reggie Wayne seems like a good guy to try it with this season. He's very reliable and unlikely to flop, unless he gets hurt (which rarely happens). But I hear you that it can go wrong. I'm sure the owners who tried it last season with Steve Smith were not thrilled.

 

[Tau837]

Others I like (many of which I do not own):Jarrett

Why? He did nothing last year when he had Colbert and Drew Carter ahead of him (along with Smith, of course). Now, he has Hackett and Muhammad ahead of him, along with Smith.Hackett + Muhammad >> Colbert + CarterNot to mention the concerns about his work ethic (remember Smith's comment to him in front of reporters last year?) and maturity (recent DUI)...

 

[finito]

Mark Clayton will rebound after an awful year.