WR Targets vs. Receceptions (1 Viewer)

[tytyty]

I was watching Chad Johnson loving himself last night and it showed he had 97 (if I remember correctly) receptions last year. So it got me thinking... I would be curious to see (and I dont think it is on here anywhere.. I am a paid member) a list of WR and TE where you take the receptions to targets and show the completion percentage. Then rank the 2005 percentages (or more years) and here is where it gets hard for me to explain but the math whiz's will probably be able to do it.

Let's say WRA has a 65% receptions to target percentage and his stats were 72 catches/110 targets(think thats 65%, again I have a 3yr. old math level) and WRB has a 65% also but caught 35 out of 55 (again think thats right).

In the Fantasy world obviously player A is a lot more valuable although the percentages are the same. My question is, is there a way to weight A higher then B even though they have the same percentage to get a good look of who's completion to target percentage was the best and rank down from there.

If someone has the time it would be great. Even for 60 players or so!

 

[Snotbubbles]

Just do it in data dominator.

 

[tytyty]

Just do it in data dominator.

doesnt put into account rating same percentage but different amount of grabs

 

[Chaka]

So you are looking for more than the final target data from last season?

FBG Target data

Back in the day these colums were sortable but no longer. :sad: But if you copy them into Excel you can sort them by targets and then catch %. This should give you a good representation of guys that get lots of targets and convert them into catches.

Edit to add:

Just did that and it did not turn out as well as I had hoped.

I am also trying to figure out how Bobby Wade managed 12 receptions on 2 targets (600% Rec). Dude may be seriously undervalued this season. <<MadSkillz>>

Another Edit:

Okay first change the number of decimal places in the REC% column to 0. Then do a sort by REC% then by TOT. This tiers them much better but is still probably not exactly what you are looking for.

 

[tytyty]

So you are looking for more than the final target data from last season?

FBG Target data

Back in the day these colums were sortable but no longer. :sad: But if you copy them into Excel you can sort them by targets and then catch %. This should give you a good representation of guys that get lots of targets and convert them into catches.

Edit to add:

Just did that and it did not turn out as well as I had hoped.

I am also trying to figure out how Bobby Wade managed 12 receptions on 2 targets (600% Rec). Dude may be seriously undervalued this season. <<MadSkillz>>

Another Edit:

Okay first change the number of decimal places in the REC% column to 0. Then do a sort by REC% then by TOT. This tiers them much better but is still probably not exactly what you are looking for.

Yeah the important thing I am looking for is to weigh the same percentages higher for more catches. To see a guy who catches 1 pass on 2 targets is a lot less valuable then a guy who catches 50 out of 100. Same percentage.

 

[Chaka]

So you are looking for more than the final target data from last season?

FBG Target data

Back in the day these colums were sortable but no longer. :sad: But if you copy them into Excel you can sort them by targets and then catch %. This should give you a good representation of guys that get lots of targets and convert them into catches.

Edit to add:

Just did that and it did not turn out as well as I had hoped.

I am also trying to figure out how Bobby Wade managed 12 receptions on 2 targets (600% Rec). Dude may be seriously undervalued this season. <<MadSkillz>>

Another Edit:

Okay first change the number of decimal places in the REC% column to 0. Then do a sort by REC% then by TOT. This tiers them much better but is still probably not exactly what you are looking for.

Yeah the important thing I am looking for is to weigh the same percentages higher for more catches. To see a guy who catches 1 pass on 2 targets is a lot less valuable then a guy who catches 50 out of 100. Same percentage.

I understand what you are looking for and this is the best I can provide. I tiered the WRs into groups of 5% (e.g. those who caught between 65-69% of their targets, then 60-64%, 55-59% etc.) I then sorted them by the total number of targets. I think this gives you a decent idea of 1) who is getting targeted and who is converting those targets into receptions.Sorry the data is not in clear columns, I am not sure how get that done properly. I looks fine inmy spreadsheet but for some reason that does not translate here.

Player	TOT	REC%Steve Smith	138	68Derrick Mason	127	65Rod Smith	123	68Reggie Wayne	121	69T.J. Houshmandzadeh	108	69Keenan McCardell	98	65Bobby Engram	93	69Joe Jurevicius	81	65Eric Parker	71	69Troy Brown	59	66Darrell Jackson	55	69Ike Hilliard	48	69Chris Henry	46	67Reche Caldwell	40	65D.J. Hackett	37	65Patrick Crayton	29	66Kevin Walter	28	68Wayne Chrebet	23	65Larry Fitzgerald	158	61Anquan Boldin	157	60Torry Holt	156	63Chad Johnson	149	62Marvin Harrison	130	62Santana Moss	129	62Deion Branch	122	62Eric Moulds	118	62Hines Ward	111	61Eddie Kennison	99	62Kevin Curtis	94	61David Givens	92	63Jabar Gaffney	85	64Brian Finneran	74	62Shaun McDonald	72	61Brandon Stokley	67	61Samie Parker	56	63Josh Reed	51	61Arnaz Battle	48	60Dante Hall	45	64Frisman Jackson	38	61Koren Robinson	35	60LeRon McCoy	30	60Joey Galloway	144	55Donald Driver	138	58Laveranues Coles	125	55Keyshawn Johnson	115	57Andre Johnson	111	56Terry Glenn	109	55Amani Toomer	108	56Drew Bennett	104	55Lee Evans	86	55Travis Taylor	81	56Antonio Chatman	81	56Ernest Wilford	71	55Scott Vines	61	59Michael Clayton	55	58Az-zahir Hakim	48	58Wes Welker	47	57Nate Burleson	44	55Charlie Adams	34	56Jerricho Cotchery	31	58Chris Horn	31	58Tim Dwight	31	55Kevin Johnson	31	55Bernard Berrian	21	57Jerry Porter	130	54Jimmy Smith	122	54Donte Stallworth	121	53Antonio Bryant	111	54Terrell Owens	92	51Mark Clayton	79	52Bryant Johnson	71	54Reggie Brown	68	53Dennis Northcutt	68	53Antwaan Randle El	68	50Isaac Bruce	67	52Matt Jones	64	52Corey Bradford	60	53Braylon Edwards	59	54Reggie Williams	58	53Marcus Robinson	57	54Mike Williams	56	52Cedrick Wilson	52	50Justin Gage	47	53Tyrone Calico	42	52Roydell Williams	39	54Courtney Roby	39	51Mark Bradley	36	50Alvis Whitted	25	52James Thrash	24	54Chris Chambers	159	48Plaxico Burress	154	46Muhsin Muhammad	136	47Randy Moss	113	47Joe Horn	99	49Greg Lewis	94	47Roy Williams	88	48Ashley Lelie	83	48Michael Jenkins	66	47Doug Gabriel	61	48Robert Ferguson	57	47Keary Colbert	51	45Brandon Jones	47	49Ricky Proehl	47	47Troy Williamson	46	48Johnnie Morton	44	48Billy McMullen	33	46Charles Rogers	31	45Brandon Lloyd	102	43Justin McCareins	98	42Marty Booker	76	42Roddy White	58	43David Patten	53	42Devery Henderson	48	42Taylor Jacobs	25	44Tim Carter	24	42Bobby Wade	24	42Randy Hymes	29	38

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

2005 WR Targets

I agree with Tiering.

Over 65% - Very good

60-65% - good

55-60% - ok

50-55% - average

under 50% - no thanks.

 

[tytyty]

So you are looking for more than the final target data from last season?

FBG Target data

Back in the day these colums were sortable but no longer. :sad: But if you copy them into Excel you can sort them by targets and then catch %. This should give you a good representation of guys that get lots of targets and convert them into catches.

Edit to add:

Just did that and it did not turn out as well as I had hoped.

I am also trying to figure out how Bobby Wade managed 12 receptions on 2 targets (600% Rec). Dude may be seriously undervalued this season. <<MadSkillz>>

Another Edit:

Okay first change the number of decimal places in the REC% column to 0. Then do a sort by REC% then by TOT. This tiers them much better but is still probably not exactly what you are looking for.

Yeah the important thing I am looking for is to weigh the same percentages higher for more catches. To see a guy who catches 1 pass on 2 targets is a lot less valuable then a guy who catches 50 out of 100. Same percentage.

I understand what you are looking for and this is the best I can provide. I tiered the WRs into groups of 5% (e.g. those who caught between 65-69% of their targets, then 60-64%, 55-59% etc.) I then sorted them by the total number of targets. I think this gives you a decent idea of 1) who is getting targeted and who is converting those targets into receptions.Sorry the data is not in clear columns, I am not sure how get that done properly. I looks fine inmy spreadsheet but for some reason that does not translate here.

Player	TOT	REC%Steve Smith	138	68Derrick Mason	127	65Rod Smith	123	68Reggie Wayne	121	69T.J. Houshmandzadeh	108	69Keenan McCardell	98	65Bobby Engram	93	69Joe Jurevicius	81	65Eric Parker	71	69Troy Brown	59	66Darrell Jackson	55	69Ike Hilliard	48	69Chris Henry	46	67Reche Caldwell	40	65D.J. Hackett	37	65Patrick Crayton	29	66Kevin Walter	28	68Wayne Chrebet	23	65Larry Fitzgerald	158	61Anquan Boldin	157	60Torry Holt	156	63Chad Johnson	149	62Marvin Harrison	130	62Santana Moss	129	62Deion Branch	122	62Eric Moulds	118	62Hines Ward	111	61Eddie Kennison	99	62Kevin Curtis	94	61David Givens	92	63Jabar Gaffney	85	64Brian Finneran	74	62Shaun McDonald	72	61Brandon Stokley	67	61Samie Parker	56	63Josh Reed	51	61Arnaz Battle	48	60Dante Hall	45	64Frisman Jackson	38	61Koren Robinson	35	60LeRon McCoy	30	60Joey Galloway	144	55Donald Driver	138	58Laveranues Coles	125	55Keyshawn Johnson	115	57Andre Johnson	111	56Terry Glenn	109	55Amani Toomer	108	56Drew Bennett	104	55Lee Evans	86	55Travis Taylor	81	56Antonio Chatman	81	56Ernest Wilford	71	55Scott Vines	61	59Michael Clayton	55	58Az-zahir Hakim	48	58Wes Welker	47	57Nate Burleson	44	55Charlie Adams	34	56Jerricho Cotchery	31	58Chris Horn	31	58Tim Dwight	31	55Kevin Johnson	31	55Bernard Berrian	21	57Jerry Porter	130	54Jimmy Smith	122	54Donte Stallworth	121	53Antonio Bryant	111	54Terrell Owens	92	51Mark Clayton	79	52Bryant Johnson	71	54Reggie Brown	68	53Dennis Northcutt	68	53Antwaan Randle El	68	50Isaac Bruce	67	52Matt Jones	64	52Corey Bradford	60	53Braylon Edwards	59	54Reggie Williams	58	53Marcus Robinson	57	54Mike Williams	56	52Cedrick Wilson	52	50Justin Gage	47	53Tyrone Calico	42	52Roydell Williams	39	54Courtney Roby	39	51Mark Bradley	36	50Alvis Whitted	25	52James Thrash	24	54Chris Chambers	159	48Plaxico Burress	154	46Muhsin Muhammad	136	47Randy Moss	113	47Joe Horn	99	49Greg Lewis	94	47Roy Williams	88	48Ashley Lelie	83	48Michael Jenkins	66	47Doug Gabriel	61	48Robert Ferguson	57	47Keary Colbert	51	45Brandon Jones	47	49Ricky Proehl	47	47Troy Williamson	46	48Johnnie Morton	44	48Billy McMullen	33	46Charles Rogers	31	45Brandon Lloyd	102	43Justin McCareins	98	42Marty Booker	76	42Roddy White	58	43David Patten	53	42Devery Henderson	48	42Taylor Jacobs	25	44Tim Carter	24	42Bobby Wade	24	42Randy Hymes	29	38

Chaka, that is great. I appreciate the time. I think I can just copy now and sort.

 

[Chaka]

2005 WR Targets

I agree with Tiering.

Over 65% - Very good

60-65% - good

55-60% - ok

50-55% - average

under 50% - no thanks.

Only one WR, Dane Looker (27 targets), who caught over 70% of their targets had more than 12 total targets all year.Jeff can you tell me how to get the column data to line up when using the "Code" function?

Thanks

 

[Chaka]

Chaka, that is great. I appreciate the time. I think I can just copy now and sort.

NP. They are already tiered so you should not need to do much sorting.Cheers

 

[intrinsic]

i find it really interesting that the 65-69% area is the ceiling for the top receivers.

 

[Biabreakable]

2005 WR Targets

I agree with Tiering.

Over 65% - Very good

60-65% - good

55-60% - ok

50-55% - average

under 50% - no thanks.

From 2006 that would include:Chris Chambers

Plaxico Burress

Roy Williams

Randy Moss

Ashley Lelie

Roddy White

I think it is important to look at more than one year though.

Doing so the only Wr on this list who improves catch percentage above 50% overall is Randy Moss.

Corey Bradford career percentage is below 50% also. 2005 was one of his better performances at 51%

 

[tytyty]

2005 WR Targets

I agree with Tiering.

Over 65% - Very good

60-65% - good

55-60% - ok

50-55% - average

under 50% - no thanks.

From 2006 that would include:Chris Chambers

Plaxico Burress

Roy Williams

Randy Moss

Ashley Lelie

Roddy White

I think it is important to look at more than one year though.

Doing so the only Wr on this list who improves catch percentage above 50% overall is Randy Moss.

Corey Bradford career percentage is below 50% also. 2005 was one of his better performances at 51%

Interesting. Lelie is a no brainer but what a surprising list. I guest percentages is not a big factor when all is said and done.

 

[intrinsic]

Also, to be considered, is who is throwing to them

Not an easy figure to create statistics for, but definitely worth a moments consideration

 

[SSOG]

I was watching Chad Johnson loving himself last night and it showed he had 97 (if I remember correctly) receptions last year. So it got me thinking... I would be curious to see (and I dont think it is on here anywhere.. I am a paid member) a list of WR and TE where you take the receptions to targets and show the completion percentage. Then rank the 2005 percentages (or more years) and here is where it gets hard for me to explain but the math whiz's will probably be able to do it.

Let's say WRA has a 65% receptions to target percentage and his stats were 72 catches/110 targets(think thats 65%, again I have a 3yr. old math level) and WRB has a 65% also but caught 35 out of 55 (again think thats right).

In the Fantasy world obviously player A is a lot more valuable although the percentages are the same. My question is, is there a way to weight A higher then B even though they have the same percentage to get a good look of who's completion to target percentage was the best and rank down from there.

If someone has the time it would be great. Even for 60 players or so!

Click me.Good old Football Outsiders has the catch% for every receiver over the last 6 years, along with the targets, yards, and TDs. Look at the four columns all the way to the right.

To the left of all of that, they have their fancy DVOA stats, which measures how successful each WR was per target. If a WR got a first down on 50% of his targets, that's going to be pretty good. If a WR caught 80 balls on third down and didn't get a single first down, then DVOA calls him a worthless stat padder and a poor WR. These numbers don't have a whole lot of value for fantasy football, but it's fun to see just how effective some WRs are in real life.

Anyway, I'm a big fan of catch%. If you look at the elite WRs- i.e. the top 10 fantasy WRs in any given season- they almost always have a 60+% catch% (the one exception is Terrell Owens, who sometimes drops into the mid-50%s, although he does break 60% some years). This is one of the big reasons why I'm so down on Chris Chambers- he's never had a better than 54% catch%- and that came in his rookie season. In recent years he's hovered right around 50%, which would mean he'd need a ridiculous 160 targets just to get 80 receptions. I think Chambers has hit his ceiling and I doubt he'll even manage to match last season's numbers anytime in the near future unless he DRAMATICALLY improves his catch%. Also, according to DVOA, he was the #72 ranked WR in the entire NFL last year. Blame it on his QBs, but Marty Booker and Wes Welker managed to rank 49th and 20th, respectively, with the exact same QBs.

 

[MLBrandow]

2005 WR Targets

I agree with Tiering.

Over 65% - Very good

60-65% - good

55-60% - ok

50-55% - average

under 50% - no thanks.

From 2006 that would include:Chris Chambers

Plaxico Burress

Roy Williams

Randy Moss

Ashley Lelie

Roddy White

I think it is important to look at more than one year though.

Doing so the only Wr on this list who improves catch percentage above 50% overall is Randy Moss.

Corey Bradford career percentage is below 50% also. 2005 was one of his better performances at 51%

More important than that is factoring in the QB.Chambers has been a consistant sub-50% receiver for his career.

I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure Plax's took a dip with Eli at the helm. Same for Roddy White (Vick) and Roy Williams (Harrington).

Of those, I'd say Chambers/Moss/Lelie are the guys that "drop the balls".

And even with Moss, it's not because he drops them, it's because he doesn't go for them. Anything that isn't a go route or a 9route, you can forget it. Turner tried to make Moss run differnet routes last year, and also he was playing when hurt. Still, it's more a result of his own-decision-making than anything else.

If I were to sort this list, it would be by 5% reception/15targets. I threw everyone out below 75 receptions because I'm lazy, but here is what my list would look like:

Player TOT REC%

Tier1

Steve Smith 138 68

Torry Holt 156 63

Larry Fitzgerald 158 61

Anquan Boldin 157 60

Chad Johnson 149 62

Tier2

Derrick Mason 127 65

Rod Smith 123 68

Reggie Wayne 121 69

Marvin Harrison 130 62

Santana Moss 129 62

T.J. Houshmandzadeh 108 69

Joey Galloway 144 55

Donald Driver 138 58

Deion Branch 122 62

Chris Chambers 159 48

Plaxico Burress 154 46

Tier3

Eric Moulds 118 62

Hines Ward 111 61

Eddie Kennison 99 62

Jerry Porter 130 54

Laveranues Coles 125 55

Keyshawn Johnson 115 57

Jimmy Smith 122 54

Donte Stallworth 121 53

Andre Johnson 111 56

Terry Glenn 109 55

Amani Toomer 108 56

Drew Bennett 104 55

Tier4

David Givens 92 63

Kevin Curtis 94 61

Muhsin Muhammad 136 47

Antonio Bryant 111 54

Jabar Gaffney 85 64

Lee Evans 86 55

Randy Moss 113 47

Travis Taylor 81 56

Antonio Chatman 81 56

Terrell Owens 92 51

Joe Horn 99 49

Greg Lewis 94 47

Roy Williams 88 48

Mark Clayton 79 52

Brandon Lloyd 102 43

Ashley Lelie 83 48

Justin McCareins 98 42

Marty Booker 76 42

Now, it's important to understand that when you look at these lists, while they are generally pretty good indicators of success/etc, you have to also go over situations for each one and factor in causation (QB, running game, garbage time, injury, etc). Then you can really make this worth something.

 

[Joseph]

looking at just one guy, Plaxico Burress' % was lower in 2005 than his career average (I don't have the numbers anymore, but it might have been his career low %).

Further, his % was well below Eli Manning's completion % last year.

How you interpret that is up to you, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Burress increases his % (based on reverting to his own mean, reverting to Manning's mean, and Manning increasing his completion %). To me that means Burress is a prime candidate for a huge year if he can get a similar number of targets this year.

Granted, that's a big if, but there haven't been any huge additions to the passing offense (with Moss gimpy) that would take looks away from Burress.

 

[Chaka]

Chambers has been a consistant sub-50% receiver for his career.I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure Plax's took a dip with Eli at the helm. Same for Roddy White (Vick) and Roy Williams (Harrington).Of those, I'd say Chambers/Moss/Lelie are the guys that "drop the balls".

I don't get it. Why do Plax, White and Williams get a pass because of their QBs (Eli 53%, Vick 55%, Harrington 57%) but Chambers gets no pass with Frerotte/Feely (53%). His QB play for his entire career has been spotty at best (Fiedler, Griese, Frerotte & Feeley).He is the most talented player on the roster (sorry Ronnie Brown) and Saban knows it and will continue to try and get him the ball. This year he should have a QB capable of completing 65% of his passes so let's see what happens before calling him a "drop the ball" guy.

 

[SSOG]

Chambers has been a consistant sub-50% receiver for his career.I don't have the numbers, but I'm sure Plax's took a dip with Eli at the helm. Same for Roddy White (Vick) and Roy Williams (Harrington).Of those, I'd say Chambers/Moss/Lelie are the guys that "drop the balls".

I don't get it. Why do Plax, White and Williams get a pass because of their QBs (Eli 53%, Vick 55%, Harrington 57%) but Chambers gets no pass with Frerotte/Feely (53%). His QB play for his entire career has been spotty at best (Fiedler, Griese, Frerotte & Feeley).He is the most talented player on the roster (sorry Ronnie Brown) and Saban knows it and will continue to try and get him the ball. This year he should have a QB capable of completing 65% of his passes so let's see what happens before calling him a "drop the ball" guy.

I don't give Plax/White/Williams a pass, either, (although Plax had a 58% catch% in 2004, which convinces me that he's at least CAPABLE of catching the ball). With that said, Chambers has had a 50% or worse catch% for THREE STRAIGHT YEARS now. And before you go blaming that all on the QB, you should know that Arnaz Battle had a 59% catch% last year in San Francisco, and Welker managed a 56% catch% with the same QBs that Chambers was dealing with. Granted, Welker wasn't facing as tough of coverages... but on the other hand, Welker isn't being talked about as a top-10 fantasy WR, either.For another example, there's Laveranues Coles, who posted a 56% catch% with Wee Brooks Bollinger last year (a HUGE dropoff from Frerotte). Also, Frerotte isn't NEARLY as bad of a QB as everyone here is making him out to be- if he was, he wouldn't still be in the league after 11 years. He's posted Comp% of 57.4, 60.8, and 59.5 in heavy action (200+ attempts) before. And Jay Fiedler has a 58.7% career completion percentage. It's not like Chris Chambers was playing with Ryan Freaking Leaf here.

 

[Biabreakable]

looking at just one guy, Plaxico Burress' % was lower in 2005 than his career average (I don't have the numbers anymore, but it might have been his career low %). Further, his % was well below Eli Manning's completion % last year. How you interpret that is up to you, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if Burress increases his % (based on reverting to his own mean, reverting to Manning's mean, and Manning increasing his completion %). To me that means Burress is a prime candidate for a huge year if he can get a similar number of targets this year. Granted, that's a big if, but there haven't been any huge additions to the passing offense (with Moss gimpy) that would take looks away from Burress.

Plaxico's catch % is 52.3 over the past 5 years. His high of 58% in 2004 came from playing with rookie Qb Ben Roethlisberger. This tells me that Big Ben is really good.I don't see Plax's numbers improving much if at all though even though Eli should get better and the Giants do throw the ball a lot. 166 targets is a huge amount though and Plax will not likely see quite as many. Especialy when he is not converting those targets much over 50% of the time (was 46% last year) I see him maintaining his performance with more targets going to Toomer and Shockey than last year.