WR-WR is to Fantasy Draft Theory... (1 Viewer)

[Darko M]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB (in a QB friendly league), RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

History has demonstrated that Doing The Same Thing Forever is the best idea, certainly.

 

[Zoomanji]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

 

[TheRealDeFo]

Last year I gave the WR-WR theory a try ... and it worked great (I was always a RB-RB guy).

I had the 13th pick, 13 team PPR league. We start 2 RB's, 3 WR's.

In 3 of the first 4 rounds I took L Fitzgerald, R Wayne & Steve Smith ... and then loaded up on RB's to do a little RBBC. By Thanksgiving, I was starting to run away with the league.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Thank God someone brought politics into the Shark Pool where it belongs.

 

[sinatravolta]

In a start 2 RB, 3 WR league - the only thing that ties up what you're doing in rounds 3-5 with respect to RBs and WRs is if you go RB/RB.

 

[rjv]

The 1st 4 or 5 RBs off the board are similar aand as I like to call them "high end" RBs. Once they are gone, the next 15 are a crap shoot and will put up similar points for you week in and week out. Approx 20-25 points on avg. This is a strategy in a 10 team league, if I forgot to mention Think of it this way, if you are picking at 9,which I am doing again this year, by picking wr 1st you will grab AJ, Jennings, Moss or a slight chance Fitz. Then grabbing another top 4 wr for your 2nd pic will benefit you greatly.

If you take a running back with a late-first-rounder, you'll already be drawing from the non-elite pool at the position, and that will leave you chasing points. From 2002-08, the top-ranked running back averaged 347 compared to 225 points for the No. 8 back and 205 for the No. 10 back. You don't really help your cause by doubling down on a running back in the second round, either. For example, if every owner goes RB-RB with the first two picks, the top spot would hold an advantage of 107 points over the 10th spot. Good luck making that up, especially when you consider the owner selecting first overall will also lock in the top-ranked wide receiver in the third round in this scenario.

 

[Buffaloes]

Why do you feel like you have to go RB in the 3rd if you go WR, WR? I think getting an elite QB becomes more important if you skip an elite RB. Having 2 elite WR and a top QB > having 2 elite WR and a bunch of middle of the pack RBs, TE and QB, IMO.

 

[pantherclub]

By my calculations only 40% of the preseason ranked top 10 RB's finish in the top 10. So why not load up on middle round RB's and get 2 (or 3) stud WR's early. All you need is 1 just 1 of the mid level RB's to pan out. The rest is gravy. I would much rather have Fitz and Steve Smith with Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson than Gore, Barber and L COles and Vincent Jackson.

 

[SHARKS]

In PPR it's an easy and correct play to draft WR-WR later in the first round. Half of the top ten RBs fail to make it in the top the ten, more than half of the REC will. RBs get inj much more than WR. You can pick up a waiver RB almost every week that is a decent fantasy starter, you can almost never get a top WR off waivers. But, you keep drafting LT and Barber-types while others are taking Fitz and Steve Smith-types. And make sure you get that fifth ranked QB in round 3 too (sarcasm). The WR-WR philosohy follows the best player available, either VBD or AVT.

 

[jfranco77]

My league is 1-keeper (no draft picks or anything, everyone just keeps one) and PPR. We start 2 RB/3 WR (no flex), so WRs are pretty valuable.

Last year, I kept SJax and I had the turn picks (12 and 13). I picked Fitz (great) and Braylon (horrible). On the next turn I picked Witten (pretty good) and Ronnie Brown (hit and miss). If I had picked Andre Johnson instead of Braylon I probably would have won the league in a walk. But the point is, it depends very much on your league setup. [Edit to add, also if I had not picked Derek Anderson and Jason Campbell as my QBs, that would have helped]

For you, IF you can get a good QB in round 3 then it might work. With PPR and 6 for all TDs, RBs are not as important. But can you pull the trigger on a Rivers or McNabb in round 3, assuming that Brees/Brady/Manning are all gone and Rodgers probably is too?

 

[ScottNorwood]

Probably the most absurd thread title I've seen in a long time

 

[DoubleG]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

The classic flaw in the counter argument. Other owners are trying to draft a good team too - not just trying to screw you. Which owner, who DID go RB-RB is going to take yet another RB, while WRs, 1st tier QBs and 1st tier TEs start flying off the board?? You don't HAVE to draft an RB in the 3rd or 4th especially if many other owners did go RB-RB. Many of them are going to be eyeing WRs (especially since you have already taken two of the best off the board). Honestly in a 12 team redraft if someone takes WR-WR at the 1-2 turn (or the 1.11 and 2.02) - (which are generally the best places to use WR-WR) - a WR run can start. Especially in 2RB, 3WR leagues. If the 2nd round ISN'T a WR run, then the 3rd and 4th almost definately will be - either way you might not snag a top 15 RB, but guys like TJ, Jamal Lewis, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, the Addai/Brown play, K.Moreno, or even guys liek LJ or Ronnie Brown may still be around at 3.11 - especially if people start doing things like trying snag a Brady/Brees or Witten/Gates in the 3rd. I mean thing about it - let's reverse it:Let's say your drafting out of the 7 and plan to go RB-RB. You go Slaton at 1.07 and then in the second pick up Piere Thomas. Between your 1st and 2nd picks 3 WR went off the board - and Brady. After that 2nd rounder a few more RBs went off as well as 2 more WRs along with Brees and P. Manning. So your sitting at 3.07 with 2 starting RBs and that's it. The top tier of QBs is already gone, WRs left (keep in mind you still have none) start with Wayne/Jennings/Boldin. Now are going to pick Larry Johnson or Thomas Jones here? I don't think so. It's going to be 10 more until your next pick - if there is a WR run here, you could be looking at having to draft Vincent Jackson, Brandon Marshall,T.O. or Ocho Cinco as your WR1. If P. Manning hadn't gone, he would have been a great pick, but with 2 starting RBs already in the stable, you need to go WR here. And that is usually the case - and exactly why going WR-WR in late draft position is a solid play.

Drafting in ANY position has it's strengths and weaknesses. If you are contantly reacting to runs, you are always picking lesser talent then your opponents. If everyone else goes RB-RB and you come up at 11, guess what? You've have the 11th best RB. If you go WR-WR you have the best two WRs in the league (and have kept them away from people who drafted better RBs than you anyway). Actually, I've seen people go WR-WR-QB-RB and field incredible teams. Yes, the definately have weakness at RB, but their strength at other positions makes up for it.

I think a major key in drafting is trying not to react to runs (especially if you drafting 10-12), but to start them. Last year, I went WR-WR in a redaft from late position and finished with best regular season record in the league.

 

[prgromek]

If I'm sitting toward the end of the first round, no way am I going to go RB-RB and let the guys at the front who got AP, MJD, Forte, etc. also end up with the top receivers. I'd rather take the elite players at another position (WR and possibly QB) than settle for RB leftovers.

 

[scientist]

I was all excited to read a thoughtful analysis on how popular political theories were similar to draft strategies.

 

[MCguidance]

Love being at the end of the draft just to draft wr wr in my start 3 wr league. If I am top 5, I take the stud rb. However, I NEVER draft according to runs and keeping players away from another guy. Draft according to value, not according to theory, whichever it may be.

 

[Tanner9919]

By my calculations only 40% of the preseason ranked top 10 RB's finish in the top 10. So why not load up on middle round RB's and get 2 (or 3) stud WR's early. All you need is 1 just 1 of the mid level RB's to pan out. The rest is gravy. I would much rather have Fitz and Steve Smith with Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson than Gore, Barber and L COles and Vincent Jackson.

that's a very good point!the 'haves" vs. the have-not's , in regards to WR's, almost always pans out..the upper echelon guys almost always stay at that level, while the turnover rate for RB's is much,much higher..the preseason RB top-10 is almost nothing like the end-of-season RB top 10..yet, 2008's preseason WR top 10, like Fitz, Steve Smith, AJ, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Mossproduced at their expected levels, while RB's like Stevey Jackson ( hurt), LT2, Joe Addai, Westbrook, Barber, Lynch all flopped as none of them even came close to meeting their expected stats for the 2008 season...I'll take a stud WR over a stud RB any day of the week..guys like Ray Rice are going in what, 4th-5th rounds? so why take someone like Gore in the first, then?Julius Jones will crank out a 1000 yard, 6 TD season, but isn't that exactly the same statline that you'll get from Steven Jackson, a guy who has missed 4 games in each of the past two seasons and never proven to be able to handle a full workload as a starting, 300+ carry NFL RB ...Jones can be drafted probably as late as round 7/8...while Jackson will cost you a top 8 pick, and will ruin your season once he gets hurt yet again..Cedric Benson can be had WAY late, and will produce quality numbers..Ahman Bradshaw is a late round sleeper..he'll get close to 1000 yards and loads of receptions... RB's in the fantasy top 20 have more 'yeah,but...' question marks, than the WR's in the fantasy top 20..

 

[kutta]

For the record, I thought the thread title was mildly clever.

 

[ookook]

What is wrong with the economics of communism?

 

[trogg78]

The only way I would consider going RB-RB is if I had an early pick and a top 10 RB fell in the 2nd rd and I was looking at a 2nd tier WR.

 

[Superbowl Shuffle]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

I did WR-WR from the 7 spot in the exact league type you describe and won a championship. It is not only pratical, it can be wildly successful.

 

[Darko M]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

In a QB friendly league please tell me why it's funny to go QB-RB or vice versa? I would have no problem selecting Brady or Brees in the first and grabbing Portis or Westbrook in the 2nd, or D Williams or Gore in the first and Manning or Rodgers in the 2nd.

 

[prgromek]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

In a QB friendly league please tell me why it's funny to go QB-RB or vice versa? I would have no problem selecting Brady or Brees in the first and grabbing Portis or Westbrook in the 2nd, or D Williams or Gore in the first and Manning or Rodgers in the 2nd.

all of these strategies will work if you get the right players....if you went Brees/Fitzgerald last year you were golden, if you went Brady/TO probably not. This year I like WR-WR late in the first because I'm more comfortable mining the RB pool for value than I am WR. RB-RB will work late in the first if you get the right guys and are adept at finding WR value later in the draft

 

[ElvisLives]

I drafted 10th in a 10 teamer last week. Heres my team in order picked.

1. Moss

2. Andre Johnson

3. P Thomas

4. Welker

5. R Grant

6. Dallas Clark

7.Shaub

8. Ray Rice

9. Lendale

10 Holt

Etc.

I like my team and think I will do ok with the RBs I got late.

 

[Buffaloes]

I drafted 10th in a 10 teamer last week. Heres my team in order picked.

1. Moss

2. Andre Johnson

3. P Thomas

4. Welker

5. R Grant

6. Dallas Clark

7.Shaub

8. Ray Rice

9. Lendale

10 Holt

Etc.

I like my team and think I will do ok with the RBs I got late.

I'm surprised the guys in bold were still there that late.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Honestly, I've come to the conclusion that drafting via a certain positional procedure doesn't matter. I won my league last year going WR-WR and have had success with a host of other different strategies.

What's more important IMO, particularly in leagues where you have a drafting history is to understand the drafting tendencies of other owners and then to make educated guesses about what will be available come your slot. I know there are expert leagues where you don't have this information, but I can tell you that by breaking thisa information down in preparation for my draft this year, it was invaluable in helping me make my selections which turned out to be the correct ones given the players selected after and prior to my come back round pick (picking 9th in a 12 team league).

In reality, he who picks the best players regardless of position will improve their chances of winning.

 

[Darko M]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

The classic flaw in the counter argument. Other owners are trying to draft a good team too - not just trying to screw you. Which owner, who DID go RB-RB is going to take yet another RB, while WRs, 1st tier QBs and 1st tier TEs start flying off the board?? You don't HAVE to draft an RB in the 3rd or 4th especially if many other owners did go RB-RB. Many of them are going to be eyeing WRs (especially since you have already taken two of the best off the board). Honestly in a 12 team redraft if someone takes WR-WR at the 1-2 turn (or the 1.11 and 2.02) - (which are generally the best places to use WR-WR) - a WR run can start. Especially in 2RB, 3WR leagues. If the 2nd round ISN'T a WR run, then the 3rd and 4th almost definately will be - either way you might not snag a top 15 RB, but guys like TJ, Jamal Lewis, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, the Addai/Brown play, K.Moreno, or even guys liek LJ or Ronnie Brown may still be around at 3.11 - especially if people start doing things like trying snag a Brady/Brees or Witten/Gates in the 3rd. I mean thing about it - let's reverse it:

Classic flaw? Everyone drafting around the guy that goes WR-WR in rounds 1 and 2 is going to naturally assume he's taking at least 1 and most likely 2 RBs in rounds 3 and 4 so if they're smart they'd take a RB they like before him, because the WR or TE or QB they like has a higher probability of being there the following round. It's like playing hold'em and showing the guys you're playing with one of your hole cards.It's easy to say don't go RB in the 3rd but the longer you wait the more RBs are off the board and the higher the odds are stacked against you to find that sleeper that EVERYONE IN THE LEAGUE IS LOOKING FOR. If you go 3 rounds without drafting a RB your league mates will probably want you to take a breathalyzer go 4 and you'll be the laughing stock of the league as you are forced to start Cedric Benson and Julius Jones.

 

[prgromek]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

The classic flaw in the counter argument. Other owners are trying to draft a good team too - not just trying to screw you. Which owner, who DID go RB-RB is going to take yet another RB, while WRs, 1st tier QBs and 1st tier TEs start flying off the board?? You don't HAVE to draft an RB in the 3rd or 4th especially if many other owners did go RB-RB. Many of them are going to be eyeing WRs (especially since you have already taken two of the best off the board). Honestly in a 12 team redraft if someone takes WR-WR at the 1-2 turn (or the 1.11 and 2.02) - (which are generally the best places to use WR-WR) - a WR run can start. Especially in 2RB, 3WR leagues. If the 2nd round ISN'T a WR run, then the 3rd and 4th almost definately will be - either way you might not snag a top 15 RB, but guys like TJ, Jamal Lewis, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, the Addai/Brown play, K.Moreno, or even guys liek LJ or Ronnie Brown may still be around at 3.11 - especially if people start doing things like trying snag a Brady/Brees or Witten/Gates in the 3rd. I mean thing about it - let's reverse it:

Classic flaw? Everyone drafting around the guy that goes WR-WR in rounds 1 and 2 is going to naturally assume he's taking at least 1 and most likely 2 RBs in rounds 3 and 4 so if they're smart they'd take a RB they like before him, because the WR or TE or QB they like has a higher probability of being there the following round. It's like playing hold'em and showing the guys you're playing with one of your hole cards.It's easy to say don't go RB in the 3rd but the longer you wait the more RBs are off the board and the higher the odds are stacked against you to find that sleeper that EVERYONE IN THE LEAGUE IS LOOKING FOR. If you go 3 rounds without drafting a RB your league mates will probably want you to take a breathalyzer go 4 and you'll be the laughing stock of the league as you are forced to start Cedric Benson and Julius Jones.

depends on the league, but I wouldn't necessarily be averse to starting the year with Benson and Jones as my starting RBs assuming I had 3-4 high upside guys like Donald Brown, Felix Jones, Mendenhall, McCoy, Chaarles etc. on my bench. I wouldn't mind starting off AJ-Jennings-Rodgers and then hitting RBs with 4 of my next 5 picks or something like that. If you don't have quality to start off, get quantity with upside and hope a couple pan out. By mid-season you should have some good value there.

 

[Buffaloes]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

The classic flaw in the counter argument. Other owners are trying to draft a good team too - not just trying to screw you. Which owner, who DID go RB-RB is going to take yet another RB, while WRs, 1st tier QBs and 1st tier TEs start flying off the board?? You don't HAVE to draft an RB in the 3rd or 4th especially if many other owners did go RB-RB. Many of them are going to be eyeing WRs (especially since you have already taken two of the best off the board). Honestly in a 12 team redraft if someone takes WR-WR at the 1-2 turn (or the 1.11 and 2.02) - (which are generally the best places to use WR-WR) - a WR run can start. Especially in 2RB, 3WR leagues. If the 2nd round ISN'T a WR run, then the 3rd and 4th almost definately will be - either way you might not snag a top 15 RB, but guys like TJ, Jamal Lewis, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, the Addai/Brown play, K.Moreno, or even guys liek LJ or Ronnie Brown may still be around at 3.11 - especially if people start doing things like trying snag a Brady/Brees or Witten/Gates in the 3rd. I mean thing about it - let's reverse it:

Classic flaw? Everyone drafting around the guy that goes WR-WR in rounds 1 and 2 is going to naturally assume he's taking at least 1 and most likely 2 RBs in rounds 3 and 4 so if they're smart they'd take a RB they like before him, because the WR or TE or QB they like has a higher probability of being there the following round. It's like playing hold'em and showing the guys you're playing with one of your hole cards.It's easy to say don't go RB in the 3rd but the longer you wait the more RBs are off the board and the higher the odds are stacked against you to find that sleeper that EVERYONE IN THE LEAGUE IS LOOKING FOR. If you go 3 rounds without drafting a RB your league mates will probably want you to take a breathalyzer go 4 and you'll be the laughing stock of the league as you are forced to start Cedric Benson and Julius Jones.

Guy in a league I was in a few years ago took Peyton Manning, Terrell Owens, Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss in the 1st 4 rounds. We all laughed at him and told him how terrible his team was going to be because his RBs were terrible, yada, yada. He went on to win his 1st 10 games and repeat as league champion. Thinking a person who goes WR, WR is destined to take a RB in the 3rd and 4th rounds is flawed. Reaching for a RB3 instead of takingthe best available talent is something I hope my league mates do if I decide to go WR, WR.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

It's all cyclical. Right now seemingly there aren't many stud running backs and a bunch of stud wide receivers. Once more running backs become studs it'll be cool to draft them early again.

 

[Bobcat10]

all of these strategies will work if you get the right players....if you went Brees/Fitzgerald last year you were golden, if you went Brady/TO probably not. This year I like WR-WR late in the first because I'm more comfortable mining the RB pool for value than I am WR. RB-RB will work late in the first if you get the right guys and are adept at finding WR value later in the draft

 

[dirty_martini]

Why is everyone so hung up on the start of the draft? The 1st and second rounds don't win championships anyway - it's what you do starting around round 5 or 6 that wins championships. I've won with WR-WR-WR and no RB until round 6. I've also won with RB the first 4 rounds. And I've won by taking a QB in the first. I can't say that I think it really matters as long as you are drafting appropriately for the circumstances of your draft.

Just understand your scoring system. Understand your lineup requirements. And be aware of what's happening in your draft.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

12 Team draft I just did, drafting from 6th spot:

LFitz

RWayne

BJacobs

KSmith

FWP

Breaston

Winslow

Schaub

picked up Mendenall and Fred Taylor later on.

 

[buck naked]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

Tell that to Tom Yates, who started his draft from the #14 spot last year in the NFFC main event by going WR-WR-WR and winning $100,000.I'd say that wasn't costly or a mistake.

 

[Ace08]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB (in a QB friendly league), RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

Absolutely horrible post with horrible reasoning.I won 3 of my 4 money leagues last year by going WR-WR. All 4 are PPR leagues. The league I didn't win I finished 3rd. Prior to last year I was a hardcore RB-RB guy. You theory and understanding of why you go WR-WR are WAYYYYY off base.

 

[DoubleG]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on higher tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being goneto when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB, RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

The classic flaw in the counter argument. Other owners are trying to draft a good team too - not just trying to screw you. Which owner, who DID go RB-RB is going to take yet another RB, while WRs, 1st tier QBs and 1st tier TEs start flying off the board?? You don't HAVE to draft an RB in the 3rd or 4th especially if many other owners did go RB-RB. Many of them are going to be eyeing WRs (especially since you have already taken two of the best off the board). Honestly in a 12 team redraft if someone takes WR-WR at the 1-2 turn (or the 1.11 and 2.02) - (which are generally the best places to use WR-WR) - a WR run can start. Especially in 2RB, 3WR leagues. If the 2nd round ISN'T a WR run, then the 3rd and 4th almost definately will be - either way you might not snag a top 15 RB, but guys like TJ, Jamal Lewis, Ray Rice, Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, the Addai/Brown play, K.Moreno, or even guys liek LJ or Ronnie Brown may still be around at 3.11 - especially if people start doing things like trying snag a Brady/Brees or Witten/Gates in the 3rd. I mean thing about it - let's reverse it:

Classic flaw? Everyone drafting around the guy that goes WR-WR in rounds 1 and 2 is going to naturally assume he's taking at least 1 and most likely 2 RBs in rounds 3 and 4 so if they're smart they'd take a RB they like before him, because the WR or TE or QB they like has a higher probability of being there the following round. It's like playing hold'em and showing the guys you're playing with one of your hole cards.It's easy to say don't go RB in the 3rd but the longer you wait the more RBs are off the board and the higher the odds are stacked against you to find that sleeper that EVERYONE IN THE LEAGUE IS LOOKING FOR. If you go 3 rounds without drafting a RB your league mates will probably want you to take a breathalyzer go 4 and you'll be the laughing stock of the league as you are forced to start Cedric Benson and Julius Jones.

In regards to your first paragraph:The poker analagy is slightly flawed, as everyone is showing their holes cards - we all have to fill the same roster slots. Going RB-RB also tips your hand - you have to draft WRs eventually - and if I snagged the top 2, now we're even (actually, I have a slight advantage, because I have the top 2 players at a position, the guy drafting at 1.01 only has 1 of the top players at a position). Also, the premise that a WR or TE or QB (and they're not all equal) all being there later is also flawed. Many people people drafting in the first 5 slots will go RB-RB, the mids (picks 6-8 or 9) typicall go RB-WR or RB-QB depending on the scoring system. As such, those first 5 will naturally start snatching up QBs, TEs and WRs in the 3rd, and some of those WRs or QBs will already be gone in the late second.

In regards to the second: The presumption that RBs continue to fly off the board after everyone has 2 or 3 is simply not true. In practice the guys who went RB-RB need to draft other positions. If I have to start Benson and Julius Jones, I'm fine doing it alongside Fitz, Andre Johnson and Brady, while the guy with ADP and McFadden has to start Wes Welker, Santana Moss and Romo. Are you weak at RB? Yes - but your strength at virtually every other position makes up for it. And then some.

As I said earlier, one of the great things about going WR-WR in late position is that you almost always get two top tier WRs - the person who drafted RB-RB doesn't have two top tier RBs - he has one. That fact alone evens the playing field - especially in leagues that start 2 RBs and 3 WRs.

Frankly, if you want to dismiss the draft strategy out of hand, feel free. Many people have used it with success. The fact is that in a 12 team league, even if you go WR-WR and everyone of your league mates goes RB-RB (and all pick starters), there are still 8 starting RBs available (32 NFL teams - 24 RBs = 8) Yes, I realize that some may be in RBBC (or at least are assumed to be). Will some of those guys take a 3rd RB before you pick one? Maybe - but more than likely they'd go and grab a Greg Jennings over a Ced Benson or Larry Johnson - especially if they're afraid all the other guys who have already drafted 2 RBs are going to start grabbing wideouts.

 

[ATC1]

Easier to find a WR gem in the later rounds than RB. I feel you need at least one later round guy to pan out to make a run. However, I am a backer of taking the QB and TE early if the value is there. Bress/Brady in the 2nd. Witten/Gates in the 4th.

 

[Zoomanji]

What is wrong with the economics of communism?

Apparently he hasn't noticed China

 

[Gr00vus]

You can pick up a waiver RB almost every week that is a decent fantasy starter, you can almost never get a top WR off waivers.

That's never been my experience. WR is the deepest position in the league every year, and the easiest place to pick up guys who are productive late in drafts and as the season goes on.Another problem with this "you can pick up a waiver RB" is that there's nothing to stop the guy who took two RBs to start the draft from being the guy to pick them up off the waiver wire too.

 

[TobiasFunke]

So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I appreciate you throwing this out there for discussion, and I kind of agree with some of what you're saying, but ultimately your argument seems premised, at least in part, on these negative consequences. And I think this is the problem with your argument.1. You don't miss out on mid-tiered RBs. This year there are guys in the 5th, 6th and 7th rounds who would make decent starters. that includes guys with high upside if things break right, like Knowshon Moreno and Willie Parker and Beanie Wells, and also reliably steady, unspectacular options like Larry Johnson or Ray Rice. So you have flexibility those mid rounds to get a reilable guy AND roll the dice with a high upside guy. Those kind of guys won't get you a title by themselves, but they might if you pair them with Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson.2. I don't think most of us give a rat's patootie if we don't draft a TE or QB until Round 7 or later. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that most of us plan to do this no matter what we do in the first two rounds. So no real loss there if you go WR-WR early.

 

[Go DC Yourself]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB (in a QB friendly league), RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

Absolutely horrible post with horrible reasoning.I won 3 of my 4 money leagues last year by going WR-WR. All 4 are PPR leagues. The league I didn't win I finished 3rd. Prior to last year I was a hardcore RB-RB guy. You theory and understanding of why you go WR-WR are WAYYYYY off base.

It's also as if the past 5 years of teams going to RBBC never happened. I think he wrote this in 2004 and just got around to posting it. His next post will be about this kid Gates, 2d year TE with SD, who he is targeting as a late round sleeper.

 

[Darko M]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB (in a QB friendly league), RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

Absolutely horrible post with horrible reasoning.I won 3 of my 4 money leagues last year by going WR-WR. All 4 are PPR leagues. The league I didn't win I finished 3rd. Prior to last year I was a hardcore RB-RB guy. You theory and understanding of why you go WR-WR are WAYYYYY off base.

There are always exceptions, that doesn't make it a great idea.

 

[Gr00vus]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB (in a QB friendly league), RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

Absolutely horrible post with horrible reasoning.I won 3 of my 4 money leagues last year by going WR-WR. All 4 are PPR leagues. The league I didn't win I finished 3rd. Prior to last year I was a hardcore RB-RB guy. You theory and understanding of why you go WR-WR are WAYYYYY off base.

It's also as if the past 5 years of teams going to RBBC never happened. I think he wrote this in 2004 and just got around to posting it. His next post will be about this kid Gates, 2d year TE with SD, who he is targeting as a late round sleeper.

That seems like an argument for taking RBs early rather than an argument against it.

 

[baconisgood]

What is wrong with the economics of communism?

Ludwig von mises explains

 

[Go DC Yourself]

Cute ideas to discuss, but horribly unpractical in real life, and will always turn out to be a costly mistake.

For all of you advocating WR-WR can you tell me how you feel comfortable with Derrick Ward and Thomas Jones as your starting RBs? This draft theory paralyzes you in the 3rd and 4th round, because you pretty much HAVE to go RB-RB, which other owners will know and can exploit. Which also means that you're not drafting a QB or a TE until at least the 5th, more than likely the 6th because you take another mediocre RB in the 5th since you feel so uneasy with the ones you took in the 3rd and 4th. So, not only do you miss out on high and many mid tiered RBs, you also blow any chance at a high tier TE, and you can kiss the top 3 tiers of QBs being gone when you get a chance to select one of them. Ouch.

I don't think there's any question that RB-RB, QB-RB (in a QB friendly league), RB-WR are far better alternatives. With my personal favorite being RB-WR just for the sake of the flexibility it leaves you with later in the draft.

*I am in a 12-team PPR, IDP, redraft, 6 points for all TDs

Absolutely horrible post with horrible reasoning.I won 3 of my 4 money leagues last year by going WR-WR. All 4 are PPR leagues. The league I didn't win I finished 3rd. Prior to last year I was a hardcore RB-RB guy. You theory and understanding of why you go WR-WR are WAYYYYY off base.

It's also as if the past 5 years of teams going to RBBC never happened. I think he wrote this in 2004 and just got around to posting it. His next post will be about this kid Gates, 2d year TE with SD, who he is targeting as a late round sleeper.

That seems like an argument for taking RBs early rather than an argument against it.

Not really. Some teams start RBBC but one guy greatly outperforms the other. No one took D. Williams in the first round last year, but anyone who took him later got first round numbers. Other teams start out with studs, but because of injuries or whatever, end up with RBBC numbers. What it means is that outside the top 6 or 8 RB, there are less guarantees than there used to be at RB, so you go with the next proven commodity, stud WR. And if that means WR+WR, so be it. If you've been on MFL for years, and have the player performance report set to look at WR+RB together, you can tell the changes that have taken place the past 5 year.

 

[bonesman]

Andre, Fitz, Calvin and sometimes Moss are often gone by the 1/2 turn.

Do the hardcore WR/WR advocates really support going with two of Wayne/Roddy/Smith over grabbing two backs out of LT/Westbrook/C.Johnson/Gore?

 

[Gr00vus]

Not really. Some teams start RBBC but one guy greatly outperforms the other. No one took D. Williams in the first round last year, but anyone who took him later got first round numbers. Other teams start out with studs, but because of injuries or whatever, end up with RBBC numbers.

You can't predict injuries, and another RB playing because the starter gets hurt isn't really RBBC, so that line of reasoning is out. Beyond that, what happens if you don't get the right guy from the RBBC? Or you're advocating multiple draft picks used to cover the whole RBBC so you (maybe) end up with the startable guy?

 

[yabahos]

By my calculations only 40% of the preseason ranked top 10 RB's finish in the top 10. So why not load up on middle round RB's and get 2 (or 3) stud WR's early. All you need is 1 just 1 of the mid level RB's to pan out. The rest is gravy. I would much rather have Fitz and Steve Smith with Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson than Gore, Barber and L COles and Vincent Jackson.

yet, 2008's preseason WR top 10, like Fitz, Steve Smith, AJ, Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Moss

I ran some of last years numbers for a start 2 RB, 3 WR league (non-PPR). The rank in the code boxes is the footballguys ranking from week 3-4 of the preseason going into last years drafts. Looks like for a 12 team league the hit rates (i.e. drafting a WR1 or top 12 WR and actually getting a WR1) are the same - WR1 - 6 (50%)WR2 - 1WR3 - 3worse - 2 (16%)RB1 - 6 (50%)RB2 - 4Worse - 2 (16%)For a ten team league the hit rate is a little better for WRs but the fail rate (drafting a supposed WR1 and ending up with worse than a WR3) is worse -WR1 - 5 (50%)WR2 - 2WR3 - 0Worse - 3 (30%)RB1 - 4 (40%)RB2 - 4Worse - 2 (20%)Here are the numbers -WRs

Rank	Finish	NAME		FANT PT1	10	Randy Moss		166.82	9	Terrell Owens		168.53	14	Reggie Wayne		150.54	36	Braylon Edwards		105.75	1	Larry Fitzgerald		215.46	2	Andre Johnson		205.57	35	Marques Colston		1068	3	Calvin Johnson		204.79	59	Plaxico Burress		69.410	11	Brandon Marshall		163.211	40	Torry Holt		97.612	31	T.J. Houshmandzadeh		115.313	5	Steve Smith		181.714	7	Anquan Boldin		176.515	32	Santonio Holmes		11316	71	Roy Williams		56.317	50	Chad Ochocinco		7818	30	Jerricho Cotchery		116.119	17	Santana Moss		143.120	4	Greg Jennings		183.121	16	Dwayne Bowe		144.222	27	Lee Evans		121.923	6	Roddy White		180.724	21	Wes Welker		137.125	52	Chris Chambers		76.326	24	Laveranues Coles		126.827	15	Hines Ward		146.728	128	Joey Galloway		13.829	131	Nate Burleson		1230	23	Donald Driver		131.631	18	Bernard Berrian		14132	33	Ted Ginn		110.433	22	Derrick Mason		13434	42	Marvin Harrison		93.635	49	Patrick Crayton		80.236	97	Reggie Brown		31.837	12	Vincent Jackson		158.740	19	Kevin Walter		140.256	26	Muhsin Muhammad		122.363	29	DeSean Jackson		117.268	8	Antonio Bryant		169.1>60	13	Lance Moore		151.8>60	20	Eddie Royal		138.9>60	25	Isaac Bruce		125>60	28	Steve Breaston		119.1>60	34	Mark Clayton		107.2

RBs

Rank	Finish	NAME		FANT PT1	7	LaDainian Tomlinson		225.12	3	Adrian Peterson		248.33	9	Brian Westbrook		217.84	13	Steven Jackson		190.75	16	Marion Barber		184.36	39	Joseph Addai		111.17	14	Marshawn Lynch		1898	15	Frank Gore		1889	8	Clinton Portis		224.510	29	Larry Johnson		12911	10	Maurice Jones-Drew		217.212	12	Brandon Jacobs		202.813	22	Ryan Grant		161.814	25	Jamal Lewis		14215	2	Michael Turner		268.916	32	Willis McGahee		126.417	35	Reggie Bush		120.418	40	Willie Parker		110.419	45	Earnest Graham		101.8520	52	Edgerrin James		7821	72	Chris Perry		4622	112	Laurence Maroney		9.323	5	Thomas Jones		241.924	44	Darren McFadden		102.725	24	Jonathan Stewart		148.227	20	LenDale White		168.929	1	DeAngelo Williams		283.930	4	Matt Forte		243.331	17	Ronnie Brown		182.5533	11	Chris Johnson		208.835	18	Kevin Smith		173.941	6	Steve Slaton		226.753	23	Derrick Ward		152.259	21	Pierre Thomas		162.9>60	19	LeRon McClain		169

 

[kutta]

Andre, Fitz, Calvin and sometimes Moss are often gone by the 1/2 turn.Do the hardcore WR/WR advocates really support going with two of Wayne/Roddy/Smith over grabbing two backs out of LT/Westbrook/C.Johnson/Gore?

I'm not sure who gets classified as a "hardcore WR/WR advocate." I think what most folks are saying is don't be a hardcore advocate of drafting any positions early. What if the four RBs you list are gone at the 1/2 turn, and all four WRs you list are there? Are you really going to go RB/RB there, are are you going to take WRs. It's all about value, and if you are a "hardcore" advocate one way or another you are probably passing up value that you really should be taking advantage of.

 

[imagroid]

I really tried to read this thread but all the "I won my league last year drafting ___________ and ___________" had me rolling my eyes every 5 seconds. I have no idea why people think it adds anything to their argument. I'm not really siding with the WR/WR camp nor the RB/RB camp, it's just a huge pet peeve when guys are like "Oh yea?? WELL I DRAFTED HIM IN MY LEAGUE LAST YEAR AND WON, SO THERE!". Over the hundreds of thousands of leagues that take place, every duo, whether it be WR/WR, RB/RB, QB/RB, WR/TE..ETC, has won a league.

Also the largest FF prize ever won, was by a guy who went RB/RB and they were both stinkers. :X :X Think about that for a minute.