WR's going way too high in drafts (1 Viewer)

[smoker]

Last year I predicted Santonio Holmes, and although he was great in the Super Bowl, he was overvalued.

This year, that guy is

Desaun Jackson

Really doubt he performs as a solid #2 WR, especially in PPR leagues Eagles always spread it around, and most pass plays are to the RB's. He will have some amazing plays this year, but maybe 3-6 throughout the season.

Who else do you feel is overvalued this year at WR?

 

[AtomicDogg97]

Am I crazy for saying Dwanye Bowe is overrated? I have seen him go in early round 3.

 

[GloryDaze]

Eddie Royal

 

[Maven]

ADP - Fantasy Football Calculator

1.06 Larry Fitzgerald

1.08 Randy Moss

1.1 Andre Johnson

1.12 Calvin Johnson

2.05 Reggie Wayne

2.07 Greg Jennings

2.1 Steve Smith

2.1 Roddy White

2.12 Marques Colston

3.01 Anquan Boldin

3.07 Wes Welker

3.1 Terrell Owens

3.11 T.J. Houshmandzadeh

4.01 Dwayne Bowe

4.02 Chad Ocho Cinco

4.04 Vincent Jackson

4.08 Roy Williams

4.09 DeSean Jackson

4.11 Anthony Gonzalez

5.02 Braylon Edwards

5.03 Eddie Royal

5.07 Brandon Marshall

5.11 Santonio Holmes

5.12 Bernard Berrian

6.07 Lee Evans

6.11 Lance Moore

6.12 Antonio Bryant

7.02 Santana Moss

7.04 Hines Ward

7.07 Devin Hester

7.08 Donald Driver

8.01 Kevin Walter

8.03 Percy Harvin

8.03 Donnie Avery

8.07 Chris Henry

8.08 Jerricho Cotchery

8.09 Torry Holt

8.11 Laveranues Coles

8.12 Derrick Mason

9.08 Steve Breaston

9.09 Ted Ginn Jr.

10.02 Chris Chambers

10.03 Domenik Hixon

10.09 Josh Morgan

10.12 Earl Bennett

11.03 Michael Crabtree

11.04 Hakeem Nicks

11.08 Nate Washington

11.09 Justin Gage

11.11 Jeremy Maclin

12.03 Miles Austin

12.04 Patrick Crayton

12.06 Nate Burleson

12.07 Kevin Curtis

13.01 Steve Smith

13.02 Robert Meachem

13.05 Darrius Heyward-Bey

13.1 Troy Williamson

13.11 Joey Galloway

13.11 Muhsin Muhammad

13.11 Davone Bess

14.03 Isaac Bruce

14.04 Devery Henderson

14.08 Mark Clayton

14.09 Deion Branch

15.02 Kenny Britt

 

[Sack-Religious]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot?

I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

 

[thatguy]

Am I crazy for saying Dwanye Bowe is overrated? I have seen him go in early round 3.

I've always felt Bowe was a bit overrated as well, but he sure is consistent, which makes him a great WR2... I really would not want him as my WR1, though.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Eddie Royal is going way too early, especially now that Marshall is doing "great" and seems poised to start Week 1.

Roy Williams, still.

Anthony Gonzalez is criminally overvalued, he'll be the number 3 receiving option at best on a team that is a shadow of its former self.

Braylon Edwards.

 

[gianmarco]

Roy Williams (again)

S. Holmes (again)

Lee Evans (again)

 

[tommyGunZ]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I think this is right, and it's because Fitz, Moss, AJ, and Megatron are going much higher than usual, prompting some reaches from the 2nd and 3rd tier WRs. In the end, the shark play may be to grab the top WRs early and then cherry pick RBs in rounds 3-8 while others are reaching and overpaying for non-elite receivers who traditionally are high risk bust candidates.

 

[Banger]

Am I crazy for saying Dwanye Bowe is overrated? I have seen him go in early round 3.

I don't know, he's pretty talented, they will be behind and passing in nearly every game, he got a ton of targets with Gonzo there and now he's gone. He's got no other WR or TE threat to take the passes or yards so even if the offense throws for 3000 yards (last year they were a terrible team and threw for 3312) those yards have to go somewhere and he's FAR and away the best option on the team.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

You nailed it. Santonio Holmes and DeSean Jackson. Have to wait and see on BMarshall's brain and Roy Williams' heart....

 

[smoker]

Maven, I noticed you inked in Breaston as too high

I took him as my 4th WR and I'm pretty happy with it. But not as a WR#2

surprised nobody has mentioned Anthony Gonzalez yet

 

[Trap Play]

Based upon what scoring system are these WR overvalued? For example, I feel that Dwayne Bowe and Eddie Royal aren't overvalued in PPR league, but are in non-PPR league. DeSean Jackson is probably overvalued in both, but I like him as a swing for the fences pick where I got him, which in the 7th. Yes, I bet you'd like to play in that league where I was helping a buddy round out a league he was starting too.

 

[da_budman]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

the shift in Fantasy football drafting has been interesting these last few years and I think you may be onto something. I remember in the good old days of always drafting 2 rb's in the first 2 reasons was for this reason as well. Simply put, if you didnt have 2 rb's at the end of 2 rounds your 2nd rb was likely to be terrible. Now if you are sitting at the bottom of the draft, it is quite normal to see someone go wr wr simply because they KNOW things have changed and top 15-20 wr.s will fly off the shelves and there will be half way decent rbs left for them at the 3/4 turn. At the end of the 1st round of the draft I wouldnt even consider NOT taking at least 1 wr there unless some SERIOUS talent has slid at rb. I think also so many leagues going ppr has also made wrs more valuable and top rbs who do not catch the ball are less valuable than in the past too. Add in the fact that teams are moving more and more towards using 2 and sometimes 3 backs and you have yourselves a swing in value towards the wrs early.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

Maven, I noticed you inked in Breaston as too highI took him as my 4th WR and I'm pretty happy with it. But not as a WR#2surprised nobody has mentioned Anthony Gonzalez yet

That's because he's UNDER valued where he's at. 90 catches inbound.

 

[Banger]

TO!!! - Buffalo is going to be a train wreck this year and I wouldn't touch him near where he is going.

I also think Vincent Jackson is going high. I think VJax is very talented and I think he'll come up with some nice big catches but I don't expect Rivers to have quite the passing year he did last year. I think they passed out of necessity last year due to LT's injury and their horrid defense. If Norv has his way he'll run as much as possible and Rivers will still throw the ball but with LT healthy, Gates healthy I think VJax goes back to being option #3. I think he'll be a better NFL WR than fantasy.

Eddie Royal has also flown up the charts a little too high and if everything gets peaceful in Broncoland Eddie goes back to #2 and while he's a good WR he's not WR15.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Maven, I noticed you inked in Breaston as too highI took him as my 4th WR and I'm pretty happy with it. But not as a WR#2surprised nobody has mentioned Anthony Gonzalez yet

That's because he's UNDER valued where he's at. 90 catches inbound.

This is just insane. Clark will have more receptions than Gonzalez, who is really not even that good of a WR. This is not the Harrison/Wayne colts offense of four years ago. Let it go.

 

[da_budman]

Eddie Royal is going way too early, especially now that Marshall is doing "great" and seems poised to start Week 1.Roy Williams, still.Anthony Gonzalez is criminally overvalued, he'll be the number 3 receiving option at best on a team that is a shadow of its former self.Braylon Edwards.

agreed on all 3 of these EXCEPT Edwards. I know he has terrible hands but with winslow moving on he is in the same situation as Bowe is in my view. Who ELSE is going to cath the ball on either of these teams? Add in that they are both going to get a ton of red zone looks and I think neither of them are overrated. Overrated as NFL players ? maybe so....but not overrated in the fantasy world. I dont see any way barring benching that either one of them will be worse than a mid to high wr 2 and I am glad they are on my team as wr 2 and 3.

 

[Billy Bats]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I think this is right, and it's because Fitz, Moss, AJ, and Megatron are going much higher than usual, prompting some reaches from the 2nd and 3rd tier WRs. In the end, the shark play may be to grab the top WRs early and then cherry pick RBs in rounds 3-8 while others are reaching and overpaying for non-elite receivers who traditionally are high risk bust candidates.

it's the second year in a row I went with this strategy and my team stacks up with anyone in my league. No one can match my wr's and my rb's aren't too far behind (if not better) than all those teams who took rb's at picks 8 thru 13.

 

[puckalicious]

Last year I predicted Santonio Holmes, and although he was great in the Super Bowl, he was overvalued.This year, that guy is Desaun JacksonReally doubt he performs as a solid #2 WR, especially in PPR leagues Eagles always spread it around, and most pass plays are to the RB's. He will have some amazing plays this year, but maybe 3-6 throughout the season. Who else do you feel is overvalued this year at WR?

I feel DeSean will be just right as a WR3 with WR2 upside. What ADP list has him going in the 4th round? That then is overvalued, my ADP list from FBG has him in th 6th round.As for Vincent Jackson, regardless of what round, if he is being drafted outside of the top 15 he is undervalued. He broke out and finished 12th last season on 59 receptions. I don't care if Chambers is healthy he is a shell of his former average self and I don't think he is much of a threat to Jackson's touches anymore.

 

[Freakin'Farmer]

Mt list

TO

Boldin(after his attitude during the Super Bowl and I can't see 2 guys from that team in the top 10)

Holmes(Pitts not a passing team)

Evans

 

[bostonfred]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I think this is right, and it's because Fitz, Moss, AJ, and Megatron are going much higher than usual, prompting some reaches from the 2nd and 3rd tier WRs. In the end, the shark play may be to grab the top WRs early and then cherry pick RBs in rounds 3-8 while others are reaching and overpaying for non-elite receivers who traditionally are high risk bust candidates.

it's the second year in a row I went with this strategy and my team stacks up with anyone in my league. No one can match my wr's and my rb's aren't too far behind (if not better) than all those teams who took rb's at picks 8 thru 13.

This has always been my plan with tiering. I try to get as many of my top tier guys as possible, then pass on just about all of the guys in that huge middle tier of OK guys with potential, which means I don't get Anthony Gonzalez or Lee Evans very often, then try to scoop the last of the veterans at the bottom of the middle tier before picking up a couple late round fliers. This year that meant I ended up with 2-3 top WRs, then picked up Mason and/or Driver in the late round, in almost every league (not counting the SSL/MBSL/etc.). Sometimes it works great. Other times I end up with Isaac Bruce last year. Speaking of which, Bruce's flop last year is part of the reason I'm down on Holt this year. Both were top notch veterans who seemed to be on the downside of their careers, and both went to new teams where they were expected to be the veteran presence and best target. Unfortunately, the new team isn't really planning on building around them, doesn't have any nostalgic allegiance to them, and there's no real rapport with the QB, so they don't get fed the ball as much. Driver and Mason, on the other hand, have that rapport with their QB, and the team does feel some kind of allegiance, and the team does seem to want them around for as long as possible, so I see both of them having good (but not great) years.

 

[jobarules]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I think this is right, and it's because Fitz, Moss, AJ, and Megatron are going much higher than usual, prompting some reaches from the 2nd and 3rd tier WRs. In the end, the shark play may be to grab the top WRs early and then cherry pick RBs in rounds 3-8 while others are reaching and overpaying for non-elite receivers who traditionally are high risk bust candidates.

WRs went way too early in my league and after I grabbed Moss I didnt see any value in the 4th, 5th, or 6th rounds for WRs. Instead I filled up on RBs and got my QB but now my WR2 & WR3 are very weak (Bryant & Moore). I hope you are right and some of my RBs pan out so I can trade them.

 

[Banger]

Driver and Mason, on the other hand, have that rapport with their QB, and the team does feel some kind of allegiance, and the team does seem to want them around for as long as possible, so I see both of them having good (but not great) years.

You know that now about Mason but with the new QB last year there wasn't a real way to know what the chemistry would be during the season. I think Holt goes the way of Mason moreso than the way of Bruce. Bruce is/was done but I think Holt has a little left in the tank.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I think this is right, and it's because Fitz, Moss, AJ, and Megatron are going much higher than usual, prompting some reaches from the 2nd and 3rd tier WRs. In the end, the shark play may be to grab the top WRs early and then cherry pick RBs in rounds 3-8 while others are reaching and overpaying for non-elite receivers who traditionally are high risk bust candidates.

it's the second year in a row I went with this strategy and my team stacks up with anyone in my league. No one can match my wr's and my rb's aren't too far behind (if not better) than all those teams who took rb's at picks 8 thru 13.

This has always been my plan with tiering. I try to get as many of my top tier guys as possible, then pass on just about all of the guys in that huge middle tier of OK guys with potential, which means I don't get Anthony Gonzalez or Lee Evans very often, then try to scoop the last of the veterans at the bottom of the middle tier before picking up a couple late round fliers. This year that meant I ended up with 2-3 top WRs, then picked up Mason and/or Driver in the late round, in almost every league (not counting the SSL/MBSL/etc.). Sometimes it works great. Other times I end up with Isaac Bruce last year. Speaking of which, Bruce's flop last year is part of the reason I'm down on Holt this year. Both were top notch veterans who seemed to be on the downside of their careers, and both went to new teams where they were expected to be the veteran presence and best target. Unfortunately, the new team isn't really planning on building around them, doesn't have any nostalgic allegiance to them, and there's no real rapport with the QB, so they don't get fed the ball as much. Driver and Mason, on the other hand, have that rapport with their QB, and the team does feel some kind of allegiance, and the team does seem to want them around for as long as possible, so I see both of them having good (but not great) years.

You expected more than 835/7 and a top 25 finish from Bruce last year? Really?

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

Maven, I noticed you inked in Breaston as too highI took him as my 4th WR and I'm pretty happy with it. But not as a WR#2surprised nobody has mentioned Anthony Gonzalez yet

That's because he's UNDER valued where he's at. 90 catches inbound.

This is just insane. Clark will have more receptions than Gonzalez, who is really not even that good of a WR. This is not the Harrison/Wayne colts offense of four years ago. Let it go.

I've been targeting Gonzalez as a break-out player in all of my leagues. This will be an interesting subject to revisit later in the year.

 

[tommyGunZ]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot?

I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I think this is right, and it's because Fitz, Moss, AJ, and Megatron are going much higher than usual, prompting some reaches from the 2nd and 3rd tier WRs. In the end, the shark play may be to grab the top WRs early and then cherry pick RBs in rounds 3-8 while others are reaching and overpaying for non-elite receivers who traditionally are high risk bust candidates.

it's the second year in a row I went with this strategy and my team stacks up with anyone in my league. No one can match my wr's and my rb's aren't too far behind (if not better) than all those teams who took rb's at picks 8 thru 13.

This has always been my plan with tiering. I try to get as many of my top tier guys as possible, then pass on just about all of the guys in that huge middle tier of OK guys with potential, which means I don't get Anthony Gonzalez or Lee Evans very often, then try to scoop the last of the veterans at the bottom of the middle tier before picking up a couple late round fliers. This year that meant I ended up with 2-3 top WRs, then picked up Mason and/or Driver in the late round, in almost every league (not counting the SSL/MBSL/etc.). Sometimes it works great. Other times I end up with Isaac Bruce last year. Speaking of which, Bruce's flop last year is part of the reason I'm down on Holt this year. Both were top notch veterans who seemed to be on the downside of their careers, and both went to new teams where they were expected to be the veteran presence and best target. Unfortunately, the new team isn't really planning on building around them, doesn't have any nostalgic allegiance to them, and there's no real rapport with the QB, so they don't get fed the ball as much. Driver and Mason, on the other hand, have that rapport with their QB, and the team does feel some kind of allegiance, and the team does seem to want them around for as long as possible, so I see both of them having good (but not great) years.

I'm down on Holt this year b/c I owned him last year. Nothing like wasting a late 3rd rounder on the guy with limited upside but who is virtually assured of 80-1100-8 only to watch him dog it and fall off of a ####### cliff. Tory Holt's 2008 campaign is one of the most frustrating out-of-nowhere-busts that I never saw coming in my 15 years of fantasy football. I wouldn't spit on him if he was on fire right now.

 

[jon_mx]

I still managed to get megatron and Roddy at 2.12 and 3.01.

 

[tim_whatley]

Eddie Royal is going way too early, especially now that Marshall is doing "great" and seems poised to start Week 1.

I'm in the camp that thinks a contributing Marshall will benefit Royal.

 

[bostonfred]

ADP - Fantasy Football Calculator

Thanks for the list. 1.06 Larry Fitzgerald <-- He's the first guy I'd draft, but he's no lock to be #1 at the end of the year. 1.08 Randy Moss 1.1 Andre Johnson 1.12 Calvin Johnson <-- Can't see spending a #1 pick on a rookie QB's #1 target. Hard to overachieve his ADP. 2.05 Reggie Wayne 2.07 Greg Jennings 2.1 Steve Smith 2.1 Roddy White <-- Didn't it feel like everything went right for Atlanta last year? I can't help but think something slips. 2.12 Marques Colston <-- Too many good targets there now to have the upside he once did. 3.01 Anquan Boldin 3.07 Wes Welker <-- I love Welker, but I'm a little scared of him now. 3.1 Terrell Owens <-- Is he at the bottom of the top guys or the top of the next tier down? I think it's the latter. Not a bad pick, but you're disappointed if he's all that's left when you're up. 3.11 T.J. Houshmandzadeh 4.01 Dwayne Bowe 4.02 Chad Ocho Cinco 4.04 Vincent Jackson 4.08 Roy Williams 4.09 DeSean Jackson <-- The best of the huge middle tier of marginal starters. Wait and get a cheaper one. 4.11 Anthony Gonzalez <-- See DeSean JacksonUnderrated. I have him right behind Royal--> 5.02 Braylon Edwards Underrated. I have him right behind Ocho --> 5.03 Eddie Royal Moving up now that he's back in the fold. --> 5.07 Brandon Marshall 5.11 Santonio Holmes 5.12 Bernard Berrian 6.07 Lee Evans <-- Forgotten man should face much easier coverage. Not a bad choice in this group. 6.11 Lance Moore <-- I'd draft him as a backup to Colston, or as a WR4, but not as a starter. Underrated. Seems to be slipping way too far in drafts. I've seen him go much later than this. 6.12 Antonio Bryant 7.02 Santana Moss <-- No thanks7.04 Hines Ward 7.07 Devin Hester Underrated. Starting veteran WR on Aaron Rodgers team. --> 7.08 Donald Driver 8.01 Kevin Walter 8.03 Percy Harvin <-- He's a reasonable shot in the dark, but he's getting drafted way too early. 8.03 Donnie Avery 8.07 Chris Henry <-- He's still the WR3 on his own team, but getting drafted as one of the low end WR3s on people's fantasy teams. Criminally underrated. Sanchez looks good. --> 8.08 Jerricho Cotchery 8.09 Torry Holt Underrated in PPR. He's stayed under the radar. --> 8.11 Laveranues Coles Criminally underrated. Flacco looks good, Mason looks better -->8.12 Derrick Mason 9.08 Steve Breaston 9.09 Ted Ginn Jr. 10.02 Chris Chambers 10.03 Domenik Hixon <-- Not a bad pick this late, but I think Nicks and Smith end up being the plays here. 10.09 Josh Morgan 10.12 Earl Bennett 11.03 Michael Crabtree 11.04 Hakeem Nicks 11.08 Nate Washington 11.09 Justin Gage 11.11 Jeremy Maclin 12.03 Miles Austin 12.04 Patrick Crayton 12.06 Nate Burleson 12.07 Kevin Curtis 13.01 Steve Smith 13.02 Robert Meachem 13.05 Darrius Heyward-Bey 13.1 Troy Williamson 13.11 Joey Galloway <-- I just don't see him being startable at all this year. Maybe as cheap insurance for Moss or Welker. 13.11 Muhsin Muhammad 13.11 Davone Bess 14.03 Isaac Bruce 14.04 Devery Henderson 14.08 Mark Clayton 14.09 Deion Branch 15.02 Kenny Britt

 

[Sack-Religious]

I still managed to get megatron and Roddy at 2.12 and 3.01.

If your league is PPR that's grand #######' larceny. I've seen Roddy White going late 2nd, early third, but not Megatron.

 

[Devil in the Detail]

Eddie Royal is going way too early, especially now that Marshall is doing "great" and seems poised to start Week 1.

I'm in the camp that thinks a contributing Marshall will benefit Royal.

Perhaps, but Royal performed best last year with Marshall out, right? And Marshall finished with much better numbers in fewer games than Royal, right? I can see reasons why Royal might do better than he did last year with Marshall around, but not better than without him at all. Marshall is a beast of a receiver.

 

[jobarules]

I still managed to get megatron and Roddy at 2.12 and 3.01.

thats just insanity

 

[bostonfred]

You expected more than 835/7 and a top 25 finish from Bruce last year? Really?

No, but I actually thought he had a shot at 1000+ yards as the #1 in the Martz offense, even at his advanced age. It wasn't his final stats, though, it was that Bruce started out strong, cooled way off, then teased at the end. His actual production for your team was similar to Ronnie Brown's last year - you probably didn't start him for his good game, but started him for his bad ones. Those guys are lineup killers.

 

[fightingillini]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

the shift in Fantasy football drafting has been interesting these last few years and I think you may be onto something. I remember in the good old days of always drafting 2 rb's in the first 2 reasons was for this reason as well. Simply put, if you didnt have 2 rb's at the end of 2 rounds your 2nd rb was likely to be terrible. Now if you are sitting at the bottom of the draft, it is quite normal to see someone go wr wr simply because they KNOW things have changed and top 15-20 wr.s will fly off the shelves and there will be half way decent rbs left for them at the 3/4 turn. At the end of the 1st round of the draft I wouldnt even consider NOT taking at least 1 wr there unless some SERIOUS talent has slid at rb. I think also so many leagues going ppr has also made wrs more valuable and top rbs who do not catch the ball are less valuable than in the past too. Add in the fact that teams are moving more and more towards using 2 and sometimes 3 backs and you have yourselves a swing in value towards the wrs early.

Many leagues are requiring 3WRs or more to start. I don't play in any league that doesn't either start 3WR or allow to start 3WR with a flex. WRs are more valuable in these formats, especially in PPR leagues.Also, IMO, there are about 12 sure things at WR this year for a PPR league.....Fitzgerald, AJohnson, Moss, CJohnson, SSmith, Wayne, Jennings, RWhite, Bowe, Colston, Welker, and Boldin. If healthy, all these guys will get you top production. IMO, there's a big dropoff to the next tier, which includes OchoCinco, Housh, and Owens.....these WRs have some question marks. You might be seeing others thinking the same way and wanting 2 of the top 12 WRs.....and to get them, you need to take 2WRs with your first 3 picks, and you may need to take 2 WRs with your first two picks.RB-WR-WR or WR-RB-WR are becoming much more popular strategies.

 

[gruecd]

Last year I predicted Santonio Holmes, and although he was great in the Super Bowl, he was overvalued.This year, that guy is Desaun JacksonReally doubt he performs as a solid #2 WR, especially in PPR leagues Eagles always spread it around, and most pass plays are to the RB's. He will have some amazing plays this year, but maybe 3-6 throughout the season. Who else do you feel is overvalued this year at WR?

Effing great. My top 3 WRs in one league are Holmes, Jackson, and Bowe.

 

[tim_whatley]

Eddie Royal is going way too early, especially now that Marshall is doing "great" and seems poised to start Week 1.

I'm in the camp that thinks a contributing Marshall will benefit Royal.

Perhaps, but Royal performed best last year with Marshall out, right? And Marshall finished with much better numbers in fewer games than Royal, right? I can see reasons why Royal might do better than he did last year with Marshall around, but not better than without him at all. Marshall is a beast of a receiver.

I hear you, I just think with an unstable QB, Royal would stuggle as the biggest playmaker for his offense, i.e. the guy getting all the attention. I think he finds more space with Marshall in the game, which is where he excels. He might get less looks and catches, but I think he gets more yards and TDs, if that makes any sense.

 

[Sebowski]

Eddie Royal

He caught 91 balls last year. No he steps in to Welker's role in McDaniels offense. I am expecting at least 100 catches for Royal. He will be awesome in ppr. I drafted him before Marshall as WR2 in both my redrafts.

 

[tim_whatley]

Also, IMO, there are about 12 sure things at WR this year for a PPR league.....Fitzgerald, AJohnson, Moss, CJohnson, SSmith, Wayne, Jennings, RWhite, Bowe, Colston, Welker, and Boldin. If healthy, all these guys will get you top production.

How can Colston be a sure thing?I think the only sure things are AJ, Moss and Fitz. SSmith, Jennings and RWhite are likely to be strong, but aren't w/o slight questions, and CJohnson, Welker, Bowe, Colston and Boldin all have fairly significant question marks.

 

[fightingillini]

Tory Holt's 2008 campaign is one of the most frustrating out-of-nowhere-busts that I never saw coming in my 15 years of fantasy football. I wouldn't spit on him if he was on fire right now.

Agree. I drafted Holt, BEdwards and Roy Williams in one league last year Even though Holt comes at a reduced price, why waste a mid round pick on Holt, when you can take a WR with much more upside?

 

[That Little Voice]

Tory Holt's 2008 campaign is one of the most frustrating out-of-nowhere-busts that I never saw coming in my 15 years of fantasy football. I wouldn't spit on him if he was on fire right now.

Agree. I drafted Holt, BEdwards and Roy Williams in one league last year Even though Holt comes at a reduced price, why waste a mid round pick on Holt, when you can take a WR with much more upside?

I think Mike Sims Walker will outscore Holt this year in FF terms.

 

[Dought Man]

DeSean Jackson, R White and D Bowe are going way too high, from what I've seen. There is also clearly a trend in my leagues where people are more comfortable taking R Wayne/G Jennings/A Boldin over C Portis/B Westbrook types, even if they already took a WR in the first round. People are so gunshy on any RB's outside of the top 6...there are very few people reaching for RB's (Save for Ray Rice), but many WR's are going to early. RB value has been sitting there for the taking in round 2 and 3 in all of my leagues.

I never thought I would see the day where Roddy White was taken 5-10 picks ahead of Clinton Portis in all 4 of my leagues.

 

[ryoly]

Could this be attributed to so many owners drafting WR early and then other teams scrambling to get what's left over and therefore taking lesser talent in order to fill out a starting spot? I realize this is completely counter to VBD and how many of us draft, but not everyone is plugged into FBG's, yet, so this could be the case.

I couldn't agree more. I'm one of those guys that used to go RB/RB religiously. This year in my "money league", non ppr, starts 2RB 3WR 1TE and drafting out of the 6th hole, I went for1-Randy Moss2-Reggie Wayne.....then in the third round when I was looking to pick up a RB, I couldn't pass up on...3-Marques Colston.....needless to say, by then all the rest of the owners in the room were in an uproar, they couldn't believe I had gone that route. By avoiding the usual RB suspects in the 3rd round I was still able to pick Addai in the 4th and Reggie bush later on. Not the greatest RBs, but still quality starters. By waiting on a QB, I wound up with Roethlisberger. The main thing is that I felt very comfortable and in control thruout the whole draft. I can't wait to see how this pans out at the end.Not to hijack the thread; overvalued in my opinionSantonio HolmesLee EvansRoy Williams

 

[jobarules]

DeSean Jackson, R White and D Bowe are going way too high, from what I've seen. There is also clearly a trend in my leagues where people are more comfortable taking R Wayne/G Jennings/A Boldin over C Portis/B Westbrook types, even if they already took a WR in the first round. People are so gunshy on any RB's outside of the top 6...there are very few people reaching for RB's (Save for Ray Rice), but many WR's are going to early. RB value has been sitting there for the taking in round 2 and 3 in all of my leagues.I never thought I would see the day where Roddy White was taken 5-10 picks ahead of Clinton Portis in all 4 of my leagues.

Are you in my league? lol

 

[fightingillini]

Also, IMO, there are about 12 sure things at WR this year for a PPR league.....Fitzgerald, AJohnson, Moss, CJohnson, SSmith, Wayne, Jennings, RWhite, Bowe, Colston, Welker, and Boldin. If healthy, all these guys will get you top production.

How can Colston be a sure thing?I think the only sure things are AJ, Moss and Fitz. SSmith, Jennings and RWhite are likely to be strong, but aren't w/o slight questions, and CJohnson, Welker, Bowe, Colston and Boldin all have fairly significant question marks.

I disagree. Injury risks aside, all these guys should put up great numbers this year in PPR leagues. Colston plays in an elite offense with tons of weapons. If healthy, he's a lock for 85+ catches and 9-10 TDs.Welker should get 100+ receptions again with Brady healthy.Boldin has injury risk, but is a stud when he plays. Plays in a pass friendly offense with Fitz....what's not to like?CJohnson put up stud numbers last year even with mediocre QB play. No reason why he won't again. Bowe should get over 150 targets again, and Cassell is an upgrade at QB. No reason why he can't catch 90 passes and score 8 TDs.We're playing with semantics here. Yes, AJ, Moss, and Fitz are the elite WRs, but the next 9 are great options as well.

 

[pantherclub]

I still managed to get megatron and Roddy at 2.12 and 3.01.

thats just insanity

Why would you say that? In a ppr I would expect CJ to fall a bit, he only caught 78 balls last year. I would drop that down a tick if Stafford starts the whole year.

 

[Maven]

Eddie Royal

He caught 91 balls last year. No he steps in to Welker's role in McDaniels offense. I am expecting at least 100 catches for Royal. He will be awesome in ppr. I drafted him before Marshall as WR2 in both my redrafts.

You like him with Orton?

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Eddie Royal is going way too early, especially now that Marshall is doing "great" and seems poised to start Week 1.

I'm in the camp that thinks a contributing Marshall will benefit Royal.

Absolutely. Count me in.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

DeSean Jackson, R White and D Bowe are going way too high, from what I've seen. There is also clearly a trend in my leagues where people are more comfortable taking R Wayne/G Jennings/A Boldin over C Portis/B Westbrook types, even if they already took a WR in the first round. People are so gunshy on any RB's outside of the top 6...there are very few people reaching for RB's (Save for Ray Rice), but many WR's are going to early. RB value has been sitting there for the taking in round 2 and 3 in all of my leagues.I never thought I would see the day where Roddy White was taken 5-10 picks ahead of Clinton Portis in all 4 of my leagues.

roddy's stats:2007 - 83 receptions, 1202 yds, 6 TDs ... with Joey friggin Harrington throwing the ball2008 - 88 receptions, 1382 yds, 7 TDs ... with a rookie Matt Ryan throwing the ballthe only way to go is up from there with Matt Ryan entering a 2nd year.these stats are very comparable to Portis's stats, straight up, and in PPR leagues it wouldn't be at all surprising to see him go that early

 

[bbuster]

In addition to PPR, many leagues are going with a flex lineup with the base starters being only 1RB and 2WR with 2 flex players. I like this option because it leaves you in a better position to take the best available player. With all of the RBBC's out there, that player is most often not a RB. It used to really mess up a draft fairly quickly if you went with a QB early, but I think it's a lot safer to take one early now because there is going to be serviceable RB's in rounds where they never used to exist. A lot of teams are shying away from grabbing some very talented RB's early on because of all of the RBBC even ones that aren't true RBBC...they hear a coach talking about getting another player the ball more and they automatically think it's a full blown RBBC. In one of my leagues I even took a chance and went WR WR WR and still ended up with guys like McFadden, Lynch/Jackson, and Benson. I know these guys won't set the league on fire, but I only need one starter, so I can basically play my own RBBC.

I really only like to spend high picks on proven WR's and shy away from the guys coming off of their breakout season if they are going to high. My strategy has always been to grab the proven talent early and then try to find the value guys who I think are primed for a breakout season. Guys that I have pretty much avoided at WR this year are R. White, D. Jackson, and E. Royal. I just don't see White as 1st round talent and that's where I have seen him go in most of my drafts. Royal just doesn't excite me at his ADP because of his situation with a new coach, system, QB, and Marshall. Jackson is talented, but for a 2nd year guy on a team that spreads the ball around quite a bit, he's just going higher than I like. I've seen B. Edwards listed as overrated quite a bit here, but I kind of disagree with that. In my drafts I've seen guys avoid him like the plague and watched him fall farther than I think he should. Yes, he drops a lot of balls, but he also gets a lot of targets on a team without a ton of other options that is most often playing from behind...considering the fact that you can possibly get him as your WR3, I think he is a bit undervalued. So, unless you got lucky and A. Rodgers falls to you in the 4th round, I think Edwards is a pretty good bet.

IMHO, the most overvalued WR out there is Roy Williams...I've been amazed at how early he has been going in all of my drafts.