I've done a little research on this issue, and have charted the number of "very good" seasons turned in by players at each age, in an attempt to estimate the age at which I felt it was necessary to move a player into an age-related risk group. The most dramtic drop-off in the number of good seasons turned in was between the ages of 32 and 33. After 33, the numbers dwindled to practically zero by age 36. Suffice it to say that Holt has at least 3 years left in him, but the other guys are certainly worth worrying about, especially in a dynasty format. I'll try to figure out how to attach chart of my WR research with some commentary on individual players to follow.
Link to Chart
WR, Age 36, The Deadzone
Keenan McCardell- His body is too old, and his quarterback is too young. There are all kinds of warning flags here. You'd be wise to let someone else roll the dice on him.
Rod Smith- Walker’s arrival in Denver pushes Smith to a #2, and at 36, it’s difficult to keep expecting 1000 yards from him.
WR, Age 35, Fading Fast
Joey Galloway- We contend that last year’s stellar year was a fluke. Galloway has the hardest schedule against the pass in the league this year, and he’ll have to fight young Michael Clayton for the primary receiver role. At 35 years old,, we fully expect a healthy reduction in his fantasy scoring for Galloway.
WR, Age 34, Hanging On
Marvin Harrison– Harrison did have a couple surgeries on his wrist in the offseason, and last year, for the first time since the late 1990’s, Harrison didn’t even lead the team in receptions (That honor went to Reggie Wayne.) He is still the #1 receiver in the most explosive passing offense in the league, but there are a couple of warning signs here. He's still easily a top 10 receiver even on the decline, but he's no longer a top 3 option.
Isaac Bruce– Bruce is 34, and has actually looked pretty old these last couple of years. Holt supplanted him as the team's #1 receiver a few years back, and he has struggled with injuries and inconsistency ever since. The writing is on the wall.
Joe Horn– Horn is another guy who struggled through injuries last year, and saw a huge decrease in his production. Some people think that he will be coming back healthy this year, but I think that history will tell us that it is much easier to bounce back from an injury if you are young. We'll most likely avoid this situation this year.
Keyshawn Johnson– Johnson is a good hands guy, and a great downfield blocker. He won't carry your fantasy team, especially not at this point in his career.
WR, Age 33, Not Far off
Terrell Owens- Owens is a gifted athlete who keeps himself in remarkable shape (You remember the sit-ups in his driveway, don't you?). We don't think the age factor will bother him this year.
Eddie Kennison- Between Kennison and Trent Green, we don't expect Kennison to keep hauling in the deep balls like he used to. Plus, Coach Herman Edwards has already promised to pull in the reigns on thios offense.
Eric Moulds- Perhaps appropriate for his age, Moulds will slide in as a #2 WR behind the younger, stronger, faster Andre Johnson.
Although I'm not sold on Rivers and think his adjustment period has a good chance of having a negative impact on the SD passing totals.
