Wrs who could "breakout" this season: (1 Viewer)

[TheFanatic]

One thing needs to be addressed about Favre and the Packers. Back in the hay day of Sharpe, Brooks, Freeman, and even Chmura, when the Packers got close to the goal line, Favre was throwing to one of these guys. the Packer RB didn't put up all that many TD's. Now, we are seeing a new trend. Now Favre is handing the rock to the RB much more often near the goal line than he has in the past. It's pretty amazing that Favre's TD totals remain high (32 last season) while the RB is putting up great points too. But it proves the point that this is a much more balanced offense which is evidensed by Favre's ever decreasing yardage numbers and Ahman finishing so high in the rankings last year. His passing numbers are in steady decline since 99 when he had 4200 yards passing. Last season he only had 3300. As for myself not listening to someone who doesn't back up their opinion with stats. I would much rather hear about some statistical evidence rather than "he is theire best WR and I saw every game because I'm a fan." Sure the statistical evidence that backed up Boerighter would tend to lead someone in the wrong direction last season, but I would rather have some support, any support other than a gut feeling of a fan. Tell me the guy has put on 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason or has been working out with Jerry Rice. Tell me that the PAckers OC has said the offense will be more pass oriented in 2004. Tell me they have a new WR coach that has been working closely with a guy. Don't give me the unsupported opinion of a fan. I play the game with my head, not my heart. Playing with your heart tends to lead you astray.And Sabertooth, keep relying on that reputation. I've been a regular on this board for 2 years and a contributor to the web site with multiple articles as well as a member of the Blogger team, yet I can't remember a FantasyNinja. I guess the posts from the Ninja just weren't all that memorable. Probably lots of gut feelings from a fan......

 

[Goat Herders]

As for myself not listening to someone who doesn't back up their opinion with stats. I would much rather hear about some statistical evidence rather than "he is theire best WR and I saw every game because I'm a fan." Sure the statistical evidence that backed up Boerighter would tend to lead someone in the wrong direction last season, but I would rather have some support, any support other than a gut feeling of a fan. Tell me the guy has put on 10 pounds of muscle in the offseason or has been working out with Jerry Rice. Tell me that the PAckers OC has said the offense will be more pass oriented in 2004. Tell me they have a new WR coach that has been working closely with a guy. Don't give me the unsupported opinion of a fan. I play the game with my head, not my heart. Playing with your heart tends to lead you astray.

Bruce et al. I'm not trying to be rude to anyone. And seeing something with your own eyes and drawing a conclusion is a fine way to make decisions. However, I tend to think that Fanatic's offerings about "progress" as opposed to blind conjecture carry more weight then just "seeing and believing." One of the on-going themes around here, year round, is "drafting for value." Well, I don't think its a mistake to look at the past to come up with the following forward thinking: Robert Ferguson/Donald Driver late have much better oportunities to outperform their draft position (VALUE) then Walker, who will be drafted earlier then his current output is worth. Could Walker turn into a 100/1200/10 WR? Its possible. But to think every WR that got hot at the end of the previous year was on the "upswing" is foolish. As stated before, Jerry Porter, Marc Boerigter, Brian Finneran and probably a couple others were drafted WAY too high because of the "obvious upside" exhibited the prior year. What was the common thread? TDs - a disproportianate number of scores. In my experience/analysis/history, the guy that catches a lot of balls will figure out how to score (a la Mr. Holt in St. Louis this season) a lot faster then a guy who scores a lot will figure out how to catch a lot of balls.HERD

 

[smlevin]

Good point Herd - last year's #20 receiver and a Favre target will go too high for where he should.I will say it agan, I am scared as heck of those receivers who did so much with so few targets - SMoss and JWalker are prime examples.Think Quincy Morgan.

 

[Phlash]

Branch gobbles up the yard for the Pats, and Givens gets the TDs.That basically how Tom Brady plays his team.

 

[ardethan]

People ought to be careful making derogatory comments like these. It's not a good idea to become a FF snob who only recognizes someone else's right to an opinion if it is backed by statistics. That's awfully limited thinking. Further, terms like 'too lazy,' 'hiding behind,' and 'don't come at all' are better left unsaid. This is not your board to dictate who can post and how folks must post if they choose to do so. I'd be apologizing to Sabertooth if I'd written that.This thread discusses who people believe will have outstanding 2004 seasons. Only the foolish believe the future can be proven using the past, and that if last year's stats don't support something it can't happen next year. The gentleman you slammed stated he saw Packer games with his own eyes and concluded that by the end of the year he was convinced Walker is their WR1 and will take off in 2004. Why is that not a legitimate, good-enough opinion? What makes it less useful than one from someone who spits out a lot of past numbers but never actually saw a Packer game?Those who remain in the little 'box' of past statistics, rather than develop the ability to recognize the dynamics of change, are destined never to find the breakout players until they are obvious to all. There's nothing special about that.

Best post I've seen in a while...

 

[Phlash]

True that.

 

[Repressed Dennis]

I have to agree with Herd and TheFanatic that I tend to be a lot more responsive to arguments made on more tangible merit than "I watched the guy play, and I liked what I saw". On the other hand, I'm really high on L. Coles because I did see him play, read his comments in the paper after Skins losses, and heard about his fanatical practice regime...so I do it too. I think there's no doubt that Walker will be the first Packer receiver drafted in any reasonable redraft this year, so Herd's comment about value is normally where I tend to focus. If my choice was Walker in the sixth vs. Ferguson in the 10th, I would go Ferguson for precisely the stated reason - a sudden flurry of TDs late in the season rarely translates into steady season-long production.As for breakout WRs this year (the thread topic, if I'm not mistaken) the guys I like are A. Davis (seems like he would be a good fit with Garcia), C. Lee in Tampa (although a Galloway trade would probably cut into his production, until Joey got hurt), Lelie (should be the number 1 option this year, and have more comfort wtih Plummer)

 

[TheFanatic]

I have to agree with Herd and TheFanatic that I tend to be a lot more responsive to arguments made on more tangible merit than "I watched the guy play, and I liked what I saw". On the other hand, I'm really high on L. Coles because I did see him play, read his comments in the paper after Skins losses, and heard about his fanatical practice regime...so I do it too.

Dennis, even here though you offer more than, "I watched every one of his games and he's the best WR." You offered testimonials of what you read in the Washington papers (something I don't peruse very often considering I live in St. Louis) and insight on his conditioning program. All valid support that goes beyond what Sabertooth is willing to supply. If I played this game on opinions alone I wouldn't have won as many championships as I have since I started way back in 95.....

 

[SuperGreen]

In my experience/analysis/history, the guy that catches a lot of balls will figure out how to score (a la Mr. Holt in St. Louis this season) a lot faster then a guy who scores a lot will figure out how to catch a lot of balls.

yeah. look at keyshawn for instance.

 

[Sabertooth]

Javon Walker is working with Jerry Rice and has a new receivers coach who throws 500 balls a day at him. He's eating his Wheaties and drinking milk to get stronger every day. Just kidding. Seriously though look at the Packers receivers over the past couple of years. They have used one 1st rounder on a wideout since Sharpe. Any guess who that was? Walker has the pedigree, body type, speed, agility, and hands to excel. He is easily better then Ferguson and way better than Driver. The stats show my observations to be valid. And if you only look at numbers, how do you ever predict a player before he goes off? It's impossible. Ron Wolf once said something along the lines of "Wideouts in the first round are likely to do two things...bust completely or make it to the Pro Bowl." After watching Green Bay at the end of last season, I think Walker has an opportunity to become elite. BTW, Fanatic, you still haven't offered an opinion. Which is the purpose of this thread. What's the matter? You must have some insight if you were able to win several championships and what not. Or do you compete against 5 year olds?

 

[sjslacker]

(Robert Ferguson 5 rounds later, for value)

HERD

I would like to reserve my spot for the Bob Fergie Revolution part deux. Where do I send my check?

 

[Loomba]

3rd year breakout is a myth, sort of, in that it's actually just as likely that a player will breakout in their SECOND year...so you should really be searching for your sleeper WRs from a list of 2nd and 3rd year players.

What Wood said.And as for the seeing it with my own eyes vs. statistics debate raging above, imho, both are valuable. You gotta look at the numbers because fantasy players score with points and not the positive impressions they leave you. But stats won't show a lot things that seeing a player play will. You can often identify a talented player before he emerges as a consistent fantasy player by watching him play.This thing called fantasy football, and being successful at it, is as much art as it science imho.

 

[salmonstud]

If I played this game on opinions alone I wouldn't have won as many championships as I have since I started way back in 95.....

Yeah, You are a legend in your own mind! :rotflmao:

 

[TheFanatic]

BTW, Fanatic, you still haven't offered an opinion. Which is the purpose of this thread. What's the matter? You must have some insight if you were able to win several championships and what not. Or do you compete against 5 year olds?

That post was the best of the lot from you. See, that wasn't that hard.As for not posting my opinion. You went there so I guess I have to show you to be the moron you are. I mean I'm usually not this abrasive but you wanted to call me out, now I have to show everyone what kind of an idiot you are. Do me a favor and reread the first page. Go all the way to the bottom. Funny, that looks like my opinion. Yep, same name, same avatar. I know you can't seem to be able to get to nfl.com, but I figured you could get to the first page of this thread.....No, I don't compete against 5 year olds, but I seem to posting on the same thread as one....Oh, and there's some support along with my opinion. Read the post, take notes, live and learn. Have a great weekend

 

[TheFanatic]

Yeah, You are a legend in your own mind! :rotflmao:

Hey, stud, great input there. Did you come up with that all by yourself or do you have a team of monkeys working around the clock to come up with stuff. Got anything related to Fantasy Football you would like to discuss or do you need to get up to your room and finish your math homework before your mom gets mad?

 

[Jason Wood]

Fanatic and Sabertooth, report to the principal's office. :cX: :cX: Closing this down, it's become a personal battle ground rather than a forum to discuss the merits of this topic.