WSOP Ivey/Daniel Fade (1 Viewer)

[The Ref]

Daniel Negreanu is offering a bet at EVEN MONEY The field vs him and Phil Ivey in the 2014 WSOP. If one of them wins a Bracelet they win, if not you win. Minimum of $5K DN will take action on.

I'm joining up with some folks and starting a pool to fade these two clowns. If you want in let me know.

I think it's a great bet at even money.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'll put $20k on this.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I'll put $20k on this.

I thought this was the main event... Never mind

 

[Sarnoff]

This sounds too good to be true. Loophole somewhere? Some pansy "all the money goes to charity" thing?

Edit: Oh, any bracelet at the WSOP. I getcha.

 

[fantasycurse42]

http://www.bluff.com/news/betting-against-ivey-and-negreanu-this-summer-can-the-monster-stack-grow-54381/

How many events are there? Did they win any the last year or the year before?

 

[The Ref]

I'll put $20k on this.

I thought this was the main event... Never mind

Nope - all 65 events.

It might be nervous for the one drop with 30 or so entry's. Or the 10K Stud8 with 200 runners. But all and all this is a great bet.

 

[The Ref]

This sounds too good to be true. Loophole somewhere? Some pansy "all the money goes to charity" thing?

Edit: Oh, any bracelet at the WSOP. I getcha.

Nope - either one of them win a bracelet or they dont. They are legitimately two of the best players in the world no doubt, but its not an even money bet.

 

[otello]

Is Ivey picking the dealer?

 

[IC FBGCav]

Daniel Negreanu is offering a bet at EVEN MONEY The field vs him and Phil Ivey in the 2014 WSOP. If one of them wins a Bracelet they win, if not you win. Minimum of $5K DN will take action on.

I'm joining up with some folks and starting a pool to fade these two clowns. If you want in let me know.

I think it's a great bet at even money.

It is a sucker bet, especially because of the non NL games where Ivey dominates, especially the ones with high buyins. Then you add Danny to NL...........I am out. Not to mention the big drop which is 1,000,000 buyin with about 50 players and Ivey and Danny two of them. These are career hustlers they are not making a bad bet.

 

[The Ref]

Daniel Negreanu is offering a bet at EVEN MONEY The field vs him and Phil Ivey in the 2014 WSOP. If one of them wins a Bracelet they win, if not you win. Minimum of $5K DN will take action on.

I'm joining up with some folks and starting a pool to fade these two clowns. If you want in let me know.

I think it's a great bet at even money.

It is a sucker bet, especially because of the non NL games where Ivey dominates, especially the ones with high buyins. Then you add Danny to NL...........I am out. Not to mention the big drop which is 1,000,000 buyin with about 50 players and Ivey and Danny two of them. These are career hustlers they are not making a bad bet.

So at what price do you think it's +EV to fade the both of them?

 

[UniAlias]

Not so sure this is such a slam dunk bet. I guess I never realized how many obscure mixed game 100 to 300 entrant events there were. Those, plus the big drop and 50k buyin with small fields would have me pretty worried.

Pretty crazy combined run during 2000-2010 for those two. This bet would have lost 70% of the time. No wins since then though.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Not so sure this is such a slam dunk bet. I guess I never realized how many obscure mixed game 100 to 300 entrant events there were. Those, plus the big drop and 50k buyin with small fields would have me pretty worried.

Pretty crazy combined run during 2000-2010 for those two. This bet would have lost 70% of the time. No wins since then though.

The problem is the Stud, Stud 8, triple draw NL, triple draw limit, or any other like this at 10K buy in

 

[IC FBGCav]

Not so sure this is such a slam dunk bet. I guess I never realized how many obscure mixed game 100 to 300 entrant events there were. Those, plus the big drop and 50k buyin with small fields would have me pretty worried.

Pretty crazy combined run during 2000-2010 for those two. This bet would have lost 70% of the time. No wins since then though.

Ivey had 5 final tables one year since then right? I mean 5 in one year 2011?

 

[NIU Kicker]

The other thing to consider - these $10K low runner events.... They are 90% pros. It's not like Ivey is going to blow through a 200 runner field for stud 8 everyone else is going to be a very good player.

 

[IC FBGCav]

10,000 Razz too.

 

[The Ref]

10,000 Razz too.

100% crap shoot.

 

[IC FBGCav]

The other thing to consider - these $10K low runner events.... They are 90% pros. It's not like Ivey is going to blow through a 200 runner field for stud 8 everyone else is going to be a very good player.

Yes and no, most pro that play this event think they are better then they are, and there is probably 10 legit high end players that focus on this event.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Forget what I said before, this is the biggest factor, is Europe, Australia and Asia involved in the bet? Much smaller fields.

 

[The Ref]

Forget what I said before, this is the biggest factor, is Europe, Australia and Asia involved in the bet? Much smaller fields.

Great question - one of the first ones I had. The answer is no. Only Las Vegas WSOP events.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Forget what I said before, this is the biggest factor, is Europe, Australia and Asia involved in the bet? Much smaller fields.

Great question - one of the first ones I had. The answer is no. Only Las Vegas WSOP events.

Much better bet then........but still not one I think there is any major advantage in.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Forget what I said before, this is the biggest factor, is Europe, Australia and Asia involved in the bet? Much smaller fields.

Great question - one of the first ones I had. The answer is no. Only Las Vegas WSOP events.

Don't get me wrong Ref, I will throw a couple hundred at this bet but not a couple thousand.

 

[John Bender]

I'm in for 5k

 

[IC FBGCav]

I'm in for 5k

are you serious, I will take 1K of that. Depending on what I see for rules of the bet.......only going off what Ref says.

 

[NewlyRetired]

Not so sure this is such a slam dunk bet. I guess I never realized how many obscure mixed game 100 to 300 entrant events there were. Those, plus the big drop and 50k buyin with small fields would have me pretty worried.

Pretty crazy combined run during 2000-2010 for those two. This bet would have lost 70% of the time. No wins since then though.

Ivey had 5 final tables one year since then right? I mean 5 in one year 2011?

It was 2012 that he went on that incredible run

In order

Finished 7th out of 212

Finished 2nd out of 179

Finished 3rd out of 256

Finished 5th out of 178

Finished 8th out of 393

All 5 events were different. Very impressive.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Where are the funds stored?

Hypothetically, I want in for a G, and 9 other FBGs all throw down $1k - We bet $10k as a group... There should be a central place of deposit for where our money as well as their money goes.

Which then leads to this:

Doesn't the government get involved with this bet somewhere? Is this completely legal?

I need to do a little HW, but I trust the FBG poker knowledge here... If the poker FBGs like it, I'm in for $1k if my above questions check out.

 

[fantasycurse42]

I don't even know when the WSOP is, but I'm in Vegas 7/11 - 7/13 for whatever it is worth.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Where are the funds stored?

Hypothetically, I want in for a G, and 9 other FBGs all throw down $1k - We bet $10k as a group... There should be a central place of deposit for where our money as well as their money goes.

Which then leads to this:

Doesn't the government get involved with this bet somewhere? Is this completely legal?

I need to do a little HW, but I trust the FBG poker knowledge here... If the poker FBGs like it, I'm in for $1k if my above questions check out.

There are no less than 20 people on here that I would hand 10K to and have no problem with it. If it was me I would ask Dodds, Rude, chet, etc.....they are all good.

I would add Otis, IB, Worm, MT...........just so many stand up people here.

 

[The Ref]

http://f5poker.com/poker-news/2014/5/14/daniel-negreanu-offers-even-money-bracelet-bet-one-catch-his-partner-bracelet-hunting-phil-ivey/

Follow

If I don't know you, and you want to bet against me and Ivey winning a bracelet this summer, email pattylandis@hotmail.com for wiring info

@RealKidPoker @philivey Is there a minimum bet?

@joeyrulesall even money and up to a million

 

[fantasycurse42]

Where are the funds stored?

Hypothetically, I want in for a G, and 9 other FBGs all throw down $1k - We bet $10k as a group... There should be a central place of deposit for where our money as well as their money goes.

Which then leads to this:

Doesn't the government get involved with this bet somewhere? Is this completely legal?

I need to do a little HW, but I trust the FBG poker knowledge here... If the poker FBGs like it, I'm in for $1k if my above questions check out.

There are no less than 20 people on here that I would hand 10K to and have no problem with it. If it was me I would ask Dodds, Rude, chet, etc.....they are all good.I would add Otis, IB, Worm, MT...........just so many stand up people here.

That's not what I'm saying...

We as a group bet x dollars against them... They (ivey & DN) can't just trust us and vice versa

 

[fantasycurse42]

Just another thought...

I'm sure all these players are right group... In a small game, it's down to 5 of them, if there was like $10MM bet against them, on the low they can make an offer to their 4 friends to tank at the end of a tourney and make it worth it for them.

 

[UniAlias]

I don't even know when the WSOP is, but I'm in Vegas 7/11 - 7/13 for whatever it is worth.

WSOP is in June. But for what it's worth I'll probably be in Vegas during the time you are.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Just another thought...

I'm sure all these players are right group... In a small game, it's down to 5 of them, if there was like $10MM bet against them, on the low they can make an offer to their 4 friends to tank at the end of a tourney and make it worth it for them.

This is something I thought of and in play..........but it will not be just friends but friends that they back.

 

[IC FBGCav]

OT: play the 9pm 10NL tonight! All poker players..........lets have fun!

 

[Zow]

I'll put $20k on this.

I thought this was the main event... Never mind

If it was the main event I'd put every piece of currency I could get my hands on on the Field.

 

[IC FBGCav]

Is this a bet geared towards Dan Blizeran (sp)?

 

[IC FBGCav]

I'll put $20k on this.

I thought this was the main event... Never mind

If it was the main event I'd put every piece of currency I could get my hands on on the Field.

I would let you name 100 players before the ME starts and give you 2 to 1.

 

[mquinnjr]

I'm intrigued/potentially in to contribute.

 

[John Bender]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending on the answers to the above.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I don't think I like either side of this bet.

From Negreanu's and Ivey's perspective, this adds a ton of variance without adding much EV. (If they're laying off 90% of their action on the bet, then never mind. ETA: Or if they're shooting an angle, which is definitely possible.)

From the opposite side of the bet, I don't think it's +EV. In the last 13 years, Ivey has won 8 WSOP bracelets (counting only Vegas) and Negreanu has won 3. That's without playing every or nearly every event, which they would now do. Also, over the first half of that range of years, there weren't nearly as many events as there are now. Without doing too much work on it, my initial impression is that it's more than 50% likely that they'll win at least one bracelet between the two of them.

 

[IC FBGCav]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

 

[IC FBGCav]

I don't think I like either side of this bet.

From Negreanu's and Ivey's perspective, this adds a ton of variance without adding much EV. (If they're laying off 90% of their action on the bet, then never mind. ETA: Or if they're shooting an angle, which is definitely possible.)

From the opposite side of the bet, I don't think it's +EV. In the last 13 years, Ivey has won 8 WSOP bracelets (counting only Vegas) and Negreanu has won 3. That's without playing every or nearly event, which they would now do. Also, over the first half of that range of years, there weren't nearly as many events as there are now. Without doing too much work on it, my initial impression is that it's more than 50% likely that they'll win at least one bracelet between the two of them.

I think this is pretty accurate but knowing the two people involved, they didn't get where they are by making -EV plays.

 

[John Bender]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

Agreed. Negreanu still maintains a relatively clean name in the community... Ivey has been reported degen/scumbag/busto too many times for me not to think at least one of them may be true. Let me look into this tomorrow. I wonder what if their angle here is the dying down of the poker craze and the expectation that we might see the lowest fields since Varkonyi's win? Lack of satellite qualifiers, online pros, etc might make their odds this year, the best in over a decade.

Hmmm... The more I think about it, the more I agree with Maurile.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

Worm knows karate AND hangs out with Beastie Boys? Christ, he's even cooler than I thought.

 

[UniAlias]

Out of boredom I ran the numbers from 2013.. kind of a silly way to look at it. But assuming you had an equal chance to win as everyone else, and you played every event (excluding senior/women/casino employee), which I know is unrealistic but for the purpose of conversation... The combined percentages of all events to win would equal roughly 12.44%. The majority of that number consists of the dozen or so <300 field events. The .015% chance of winning the ME obviously doesn't impact the numbers much.

I'm sure it's technically impossible to play every event due to timing, but it's interesting to look at. I believe several of the events are rebuy & multi-day re-entry flight events which would increase the percentage some. I'm sure depending on how much action they get on the bet they would play much more aggressively in the early stages of larger tournaments.

I think it's an +EV bet but not by a whole lot.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

i think it's a coin flip. Like many have mentioned there are a bunch of events with smaller fields and the one drop will be < 60

Also are they allowed to make chop deals at the final table? Making a deal will cause all the other players to relax allowing them to gain a huge advantage.

 

[NewlyRetired]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

Agreed. Negreanu still maintains a relatively clean name in the community... Ivey has been reported degen/scumbag/busto too many times for me not to think at least one of them may be true. Let me look into this tomorrow. I wonder what if their angle here is the dying down of the poker craze and the expectation that we might see the lowest fields since Varkonyi's win? Lack of satellite qualifiers, online pros, etc might make their odds this year, the best in over a decade.

Hmmm... The more I think about it, the more I agree with Maurile.

The fields sizes for the events the last two years have been steady. Why would this year have such a sudden drop off? All the things you mentioned were present last year too.

 

[John Bender]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

Agreed. Negreanu still maintains a relatively clean name in the community... Ivey has been reported degen/scumbag/busto too many times for me not to think at least one of them may be true. Let me look into this tomorrow. I wonder what if their angle here is the dying down of the poker craze and the expectation that we might see the lowest fields since Varkonyi's win? Lack of satellite qualifiers, online pros, etc might make their odds this year, the best in over a decade.

Hmmm... The more I think about it, the more I agree with Maurile.

The fields sizes for the events the last two years have been steady. Why would this year have such a sudden drop off? All the things you mentioned were present last year too.

They've decreased every year for 4 years now and I'm hearing are projected to decrease once again

 

[gianmarco]

I don't think I like either side of this bet.

From Negreanu's and Ivey's perspective, this adds a ton of variance without adding much EV. (If they're laying off 90% of their action on the bet, then never mind. ETA: Or if they're shooting an angle, which is definitely possible.)

From the opposite side of the bet, I don't think it's +EV. In the last 13 years, Ivey has won 8 WSOP bracelets (counting only Vegas) and Negreanu has won 3. That's without playing every or nearly event, which they would now do. Also, over the first half of that range of years, there weren't nearly as many events as there are now. Without doing too much work on it, my initial impression is that it's more than 50% likely that they'll win at least one bracelet between the two of them.

I think this is pretty accurate but knowing the two people involved, they didn't get where they are by making -EV plays.

No way they would have hedged the Final Four.

 

[NewlyRetired]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

Agreed. Negreanu still maintains a relatively clean name in the community... Ivey has been reported degen/scumbag/busto too many times for me not to think at least one of them may be true. Let me look into this tomorrow. I wonder what if their angle here is the dying down of the poker craze and the expectation that we might see the lowest fields since Varkonyi's win? Lack of satellite qualifiers, online pros, etc might make their odds this year, the best in over a decade.

Hmmm... The more I think about it, the more I agree with Maurile.

The fields sizes for the events the last two years have been steady. Why would this year have such a sudden drop off? All the things you mentioned were present last year too.

They've decreased every year for 4 years now and I'm hearing are projected to decrease once again

Are you confusing the main event with the entire series?

The WSOP keeps expanding and last year broke the all time record attendance with over 79,000 entries across the total series. It broke the 2011 record.

http://www.wsop.com/news/2013/Oct/4486/44th-ANNUAL-WSOP-SETS-ALL-TIME-ATTENDANCE-RECORD.html

 

[John Bender]

So what's the potential sharp angle here from Ivey/Negreanus side? How would the money be held? What am I missing? The million dollar buy in event usually only gets a few participants and is relatively new, does that count? Depending on how much money they have against them, couldn't they be working with another player or two to make sure they win a ring where possible (especially in the million dollar event)? I don't put it past Ivey for a second to orchestrate something to that effect, the kicker is Negreanu, who, by all I know, is a relatively integrous guy.

I need more details, but I'd go 5k depending in the answers to the above.

Negreanus has more to lose by welching than he ever could by paying off. Ivey is a different story but if they are together.......it is like Mike D and WORM.

Agreed. Negreanu still maintains a relatively clean name in the community... Ivey has been reported degen/scumbag/busto too many times for me not to think at least one of them may be true. Let me look into this tomorrow. I wonder what if their angle here is the dying down of the poker craze and the expectation that we might see the lowest fields since Varkonyi's win? Lack of satellite qualifiers, online pros, etc might make their odds this year, the best in over a decade.

Hmmm... The more I think about it, the more I agree with Maurile.

The fields sizes for the events the last two years have been steady. Why would this year have such a sudden drop off? All the things you mentioned were present last year too.

They've decreased every year for 4 years now and I'm hearing are projected to decrease once again

Are you confusing the main event with the entire series? The WSOP keeps expanding and last year broke the all time record attendance with over 79,000 entries across the total series. It broke the 2011 record.

http://www.wsop.com/news/2013/Oct/4486/44th-ANNUAL-WSOP-SETS-ALL-TIME-ATTENDANCE-RECORD.html

Not at all. They are adding events every year, there aren't more unique participants, just more events every year with which to count already accounted for attendance numbers to make it look as if the event as a whole is not on the decline. Even more reason that my confidence in +ev bet here is waning.