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xFIP, FIP and other Advanced Metrics to Spot Sleepers (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Strand Rate is a pretty good indicator of someone heading towards regression or if they were unlucky. I see it is akin to BABIP for a hitter.
Swinging Strike percentage.
Swinging Strike percentage.
Dan Lambskin
Footballguy
Yeah some nerds on the radio were talking about swinging strike % but said we need to look even deeper than that now
also something about Spin Rate
cosjobs
Footballguy
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
With the shift banned, the new hot metric this season is Ground Ball Percentage and BABIP On Ground Balls.
Rotowire had a good article, and I have seen it mentioned elsewhere. The theory is that any pitcher at 40% and above in groundball outs is almost certain to give up more hits this season.
Sandy Alcantara was near 50% in groundballs, and right now might have the worst defensive infield in the majors.
Rotowire had a good article, and I have seen it mentioned elsewhere. The theory is that any pitcher at 40% and above in groundball outs is almost certain to give up more hits this season.
Sandy Alcantara was near 50% in groundballs, and right now might have the worst defensive infield in the majors.
FishTacoTuesday
Footballguy
I like XFIP as a decent indicator of regression. Good example this year is Lucas Giolito. His ERA last year was more than a run higher than his xFip. Then look at his .340 BABIP with most of his other metrics being within 85% career outcomes, and I think he’s a good bounce back candidate.
He could also suck again but it really seems like 2022 was an outlier, and getting a #3/#4 starter return on him this year is highly likely imo. Maybe a #2 upside if he turns that luck around.
He could also suck again but it really seems like 2022 was an outlier, and getting a #3/#4 starter return on him this year is highly likely imo. Maybe a #2 upside if he turns that luck around.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Defense behind should also be better.
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
I've been looking at GB% a lot the past couple years, and it's made me way better at evaluating pitchers. K% and BB% are more important (duh) but factoring in GB% with them usually gives me a pretty good overall idea of what a pitcher can do.
The big takeaway is that groundballs are awesome. MLB batted .235 and slugged .255 on grounders last year. They produce no homers, very few extra-base hits, and lots of double plays.
The shift restrictions will change that a little, but not a lot IMO. It's not like the league will start batting .300 on grounders. Teams will still move fielders around. I'll be less aggressive about targeting groundball guys in drafts but I don't recommend fading them outright.
The big takeaway is that groundballs are awesome. MLB batted .235 and slugged .255 on grounders last year. They produce no homers, very few extra-base hits, and lots of double plays.
The shift restrictions will change that a little, but not a lot IMO. It's not like the league will start batting .300 on grounders. Teams will still move fielders around. I'll be less aggressive about targeting groundball guys in drafts but I don't recommend fading them outright.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
For left handed pull hitters, not having the 3rd baseman in right field has to help a little.
Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Anthony Rizzo
Joey Gallo
Charlie Blackmon
I think they will have much better stats this season, especially Blackmon. He still hits the ball hard and with consistency, but has been doing it against five infielders on the right side for the last few years.
Until they move the LF to that short RF spot instead.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Which now turns an opposite side single into a double or even triple.
But those dead pull lefties can't hit it over there. It will never happen.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Never? Because when it does it will be worse for the defense than before.
but, but, but analytics......
Those guys aren't going to try and do that. It may happen and, sure, it will result in a double or triple but until they start to adjust their approach it won't be anything more than a fluke.
Spartans Rule
Footballguy
And if/when they do adjust their approach, defenses won't shift to that extreme anymore.
My favorite example is Mike Moustakas. He got killed by shifts early in his career, so he learned to go the other way in 2015, and he hit .356 in April. Then teams dialed down the shifting and he went back to pulling the ball for power. The guys who see LF empty are the ones who can't/won't adjust.
This is why I don't like the elimination of the shift. Batters should adjust and then the shift won't matter. Analytics is just behind offensively to the shift but it would eventually adjust to show going to all fields is better for run production.
