Yet another Mock to discuss (1 Viewer)

[Red Herring]

Feel free to pick it apart, this is mostly off the top of my head. I was planning on including a few trades, but only one really made sense. I think the days of being able to trade down for multiple picks are gone. Lets get on with it.

1. HOU - Reggie Bush - I still think HOU is stupid not to trade down, but if they can't get a good deal, Bush is too good to pass up. I still think the Jets trading their two 1st's for Bush would be ideal, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.

2. NO - D'Brickashaw Ferguson - Another spot that should be traded out of, but probably won't be unless somehow Bush slips. LT's like Fergie don't come along often, and they'll finally have a replacement for Roaf.

3. TEN - Matt Lienart - Lock of the draft so far. VY's slide down the draft board makes TEN's choice easy. He'll sit behind Volek for a year, more or less, and step in nicely when given a chance. Watch out for Volek pulling a Brees and not letting him off the bench though.

4. NYJ - Mario Williams - Best available player here. The Jets have a lot of holes, and will be quite happy to take Williams here.

5. GB - AJ Hawk - Another team with a lot of needs and LB is a big one. Not only is Hawk the best available, he should start at WLB and free up Barnett a bit

6. DEN (from SF) - Vernon Davis - First trade here. SF has too many holes to like any one player here, so they trade the pick for DEN's 15 and 22 overall. Davis is a stud and will fit nicely into the role Sharpe played for them back in the day.

7. OAK - Vince Young - The first reach of the draft, and no shock Al Davis makes it. Aaron Brooks' contract certainly seems tailored to groom a QB. It wouldn't surprise me if the Raiders organization were the ones to leak the Wonderlic score to insure he fell to them here.

8. BUF - Winston Justice - They'll be loking for a trade, but not likely find one unless Vernon Davis has slipped here. They need a LT badly and apart from character questions (which I think WJ has answered) he grades as high as Fergie.

9. DET - Ernie Sims - At best their LB core has untapped potential. At worst, they just aren't very good. Sims sneaks into the top 10 here, unless Millen decides he needs another WR.

10. ARI - Michael Huff - Best player available here. They'll try him at CB opposite Rolle, and he can fill in for Griffith or Wilson if needed. Would give them a great secondary in a year or 2.

11. StL - Jimmy Williams - The Rams need secondary help badly. Cromartie is probably a better prospect, but Williams can fill in at CB or S, giving them more flexibility to draft or trade for more help.

12. CLE - Bobby Carpenter - Romeo's defense needs more playable LBs. Greenway is a better prospect, but Carpenter fits the system better.

13. BAL - DeAngelo Williams - Baltimore couldn't be happier to see Williams here. He sits until Lewis gets injured, gets time behind MA, then gets a chance to start in the last few games when they are out of the playoff chase.

14. PHI - Broderick Bunkley - Best available and fits their defense well. WR seems the only need position, but the last thing they need there is a rookie.

15. SF (from DEN) - Antonio Cromartie - His knee seems fine, and SF is rebuilding and can afford to let him learn on the job.

16. MIA - Chad Greenway - Thomas is getting older and the depth past Thomas and Crowder is sketchy at best.

17. MIN - Jay Cutler - I'm not sure I can see him slipping to 17, but I can't really see who would give up whats neede to trade up for him.

18. DAL - Haloti Ngata - His "motor" questions drop him here. Parcells will get his motor going just fine.

19. SD - Chad Jackson - Chargers grab a WR for Rivers to grow with and eventually take over for McCardell. Jackson over Holmes by a hair due to speed and size.

20. KC - Eric Winston - As a Chiefs fan, it sucks the Bunkley shot up the draft board. Sampson and Black are not the answer at RT and Roaf is aging. Winston plays RT until Roaf retires, then moves to LT.

21. NE - Santonio Holmes - Fits what the Pats like out of their WR: good hands, good routes, gets open, great after the catch.

22. SF (from DEN) - DeMeco Ryans - Defense, defense, defense. They were hoping Carpenter or Greenway slips to here, but Ryans is the best available LB.

23. TB - Mathias Kiwanuka - Kiwi may be the next Rice, and having Rice on both sides of the line for a few years will be scary.

24. CIN - Leonard Pope - No glaring needs mean another weapon for Palmer.

25. NYG - Tye Hill - Fills the hole left by Will Allen. Hill's speed is too enticing to let him drop farther.

26. CHI - Sinorice Moss - I can't imagine 3 WR going in the 1st this year, but Grossman needs someone to throw to besides Muhsie.

27. CAR - Thomas Howard - Car still needs to solidify SLB, and Howard fits perfectly.

28. JAX - Jason Allen - CB seems to be the biggest ? for them, and he can be moved to S if necessary.

29. NYJ (from DEN) - Marcus McNeill - Their gamble pays off as they get a great replacement for Abraham and a solid LT.

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney - They get a RB to replace Edge. No surprise here.

31. SEA - Tamba Hali - Wistrom is aging quickly, enter Hali.

32. PIT - LenDale White - The rich get richer. White really hurt himself with his workout/eating habits, but he won't slip much farther than this.

There we go. The more I look at it, this draft seems to have a huge drop-off in talent after the top 15 or so. The combine seems to have eliminated any major sleepers as well. I'm guessing the TV ratings drop after the first hour or so, especially once VY is gone.

 

[pgreenfan]

I would like it if Ngata fell to the Cowboys it would just surprise me a ton if it actually happened. Manny Lawson goes in the first round.

 

[Red Herring]

I would like it if Ngata fell to the Cowboys it would just surprise me a ton if it actually happened. Manny Lawson goes in the first round.

I agree on Lawson, but all the teams I think would take him had better players available

 

[pgreenfan]

I would like it if Ngata fell to the Cowboys it would just surprise me a ton if it actually happened.  Manny Lawson goes in the first round.

I agree on Lawson, but all the teams I think would take him had better players available

Carolina maybe

 

[s_ezy]

Ngata will be a cleveland browns if he is available at pick 12

book it

 

[jestertj]

9. DET - Ernie Sims - At best their LB core has untapped potential. At worst, they just aren't very good. Sims sneaks into the top 10 here, unless Millen decides he needs another WR.

This made me chuckle.Good job man.

 

[Red Herring]

I would like it if Ngata fell to the Cowboys it would just surprise me a ton if it actually happened.  Manny Lawson goes in the first round.

I agree on Lawson, but all the teams I think would take him had better players available

Carolina maybe

Does Lawson really fit a 4-3 that well? I didn't think he would, but I've certainly been known to be wrong (just ask my wife)I think Kgata does fit well in CLE, but LB seems to be the bigger need. Outside Davis and an aging McGinnest, who's there?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Feel free to pick it apart, this is mostly off the top of my head.

2. NO - D'Brickashaw Ferguson

11. StL - Jimmy Williams

12. CLE - Bobby Carpenter

15. SF (from DEN) - Antonio Cromartie

18. DAL - Haloti Ngata

19. SD - Chad Jackson

20. KC - Eric Winston

24. CIN - Leonard Pope

28. JAX - Jason Allen

29. NYJ (from DEN) - Marcus McNeill

31. SEA - Tamba Hali - Wistrom is aging quickly, enter Hali.

Nice effort. Good read. Comments. I agree Ferguson is a fine pick for NO, and the Mario talk seemed misplaced given Grant and Smith at DE. But on second glance, they just didn't produce many sacks last year, and I'm starting to understand the Mario possiblity.

Cleveland would race for the podium to grab Ngata or Bunkley, imo.

Seems early for Cromartie, but it wouldn't bug me.

I doubt the Chargers take a WR, but AJ is losing his mind, so who knows. I think OL or DB.

KC's director of college scouting is all about a DB. I'm 99% sure of this.

Cincy wants defense. Marvin Lewis has explained why he doesn't need a tight end, especially early. He made a lot of sense. "Show me a team with a 1500 yd back, 2 100o yard receivers, and a productive TE? We need a solid blocker and we're fine at TE."

Worried about Jason Allen's hip. I drafted for them and took a DB in the first, but Brian Williams probably makes that unlikely. Maybe the best pass rusher they can find makes the most sense.

Worried big time about Marcus McNeill's back. I think he's poised to fall pretty far.

Hali is falling, but you found a nice spot to sneak him back into the first round. Nice call. The Seahawks are hard to project, and I think Hali gets a little bounce back before all is said and done.

 

[Ridgelake]

I agree that Dallas would love for Ngata to drop for them. Their only legit NT is Ferguson who is over 30.

San Fran is running a 3-4, right? Demeco Ryans was only 229 pounds at the Senior Bowl. 3-4 OLBs generally are at least 250. Ryans really needs to be in a 4-3.

Some unusual picks. Makes things fun.

 

[MLBrandow]

Feel free to pick it apart, this is mostly off the top of my head. I was planning on including a few trades, but only one really made sense. I think the days of being able to trade down for multiple picks are gone. Lets get on with it.

7. OAK - Vince Young - The first reach of the draft, and no shock Al Davis makes it. Aaron Brooks' contract certainly seems tailored to groom a QB. It wouldn't surprise me if the Raiders organization were the ones to leak the Wonderlic score to insure he fell to them here.

13. BAL - DeAngelo Williams - Baltimore couldn't be happier to see Williams here. He sits until Lewis gets injured, gets time behind MA, then gets a chance to start in the last few games when they are out of the playoff chase.

20. KC - Eric Winston - As a Chiefs fan, it sucks the Bunkley shot up the draft board. Sampson and Black are not the answer at RT and Roaf is aging. Winston plays RT until Roaf retires, then moves to LT.

23. TB - Mathias Kiwanuka - Kiwi may be the next Rice, and having Rice on both sides of the line for a few years will be scary.

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney - They get a RB to replace Edge. No surprise here.

This is a nice mock with some different picks that are relatively justified. Here are the 5 that I would bet any amount of money against.7. VY may be an "Al Davis guy", but so is Andrew Walter. Brooks is a plug and play while Walter continues to develop. Expect him to start later this year. People love making popular picks and accepting bad reasoning. This is just one of those cases. to the wonderlic conspiracy theory.

13. I don't agree with any of your logic. Lewis will be fine, the backfield is already crowded, and the Ravens will be in the playoff race late in the season due to a top-heavy and unbalanced AFC in 2006. The pick was RB here because Lewis and Taylor were feared gone. Lewis is back (just like myself and many others had repeatedly forecasted) and the addition of Mike Anderson ensures they won't go RB here. I don't know where this idea that Lewis is old and/or washed up. The guy was in prison and missed a month of 2004 and played through a leg injury with his best three blockers injured most of the year.

20. I think Black is fine. Hard to contest your Chief fandom knowledge, but this is just such a wild pick... it surprised me reading it, but not in the "ahh that makes sense". They are going to lose half of their team this year or next to retirement and salary cap problems. They aren't drafting for the future, they are rearming for the last Super Bowl run they'll have for a few years. Rookie Tackles are not impact players that push good teams to great ones.

23. DeWayne White is Rice's replacement. He'll be a 15-sack monster this year opposite Rice. They need a UT, not a DE for their DL. The Rice comparisons are solid, but the Bucs could spend this pick in much better ways.

30. Still isn't happening. This is the anti-lock pick of the draft.

Really liked some of the gutsy picks you made. Sims to DET is surprising, but a solid pick. Ngata would DEFINITELY go to the Ravens at 13 if he's there. A pair of two-gap DTs in a 43 is why Ray Lewis led them to a championship in 2000.

I think White would be eaten alive if he fell to Denver, but it's understandable for DEN to trade up for Davis, who is the more rare talent.

 

[Red Herring]

I agree that Dallas would love for Ngata to drop for them. Their only legit NT is Ferguson who is over 30.

San Fran is running a 3-4, right? Demeco Ryans was only 229 pounds at the Senior Bowl. 3-4 OLBs generally are at least 250. Ryans really needs to be in a 4-3.

Some unusual picks. Makes things fun.

I agree Ryans needs to be in a 4-3; wasn't aware SF was running one now. Maybe this is where Lawson gets into the 1st round?

 

[5Rings]

Good stuff.

Absolutely hate this though:

6. DEN (from SF) - Vernon Davis - First trade here. SF has too many holes to like

15. SF (from DEN) - Antonio Cromartie - His knee seems fine, and SF is rebuilding

22. SF (from DEN) - DeMeco Ryans - Defense, defense, defense. They were hoping Carpenter or Greenway slips to here, but Ryans is the best available LB.

There is no way Ryans would be the pick at 22. He doesn't fit a 3-4 OLB at all. I'd look at guys like Lawson and Carpenter first.....perhaps even Lawson at 15.

 

[Red Herring]

7. VY may be an "Al Davis guy", but so is Andrew Walter. Brooks is a plug and play while Walter continues to develop. Expect him to start later this year. People love making popular picks and accepting bad reasoning. This is just one of those cases. to the wonderlic conspiracy theory.

I'd agree with you that Walter is a Davis type guy, but I'm used to hearing much more about future Raiders stars than I'm getting on Walter. He's talented, but talent has a way of sitting the bench for little/no reason in Oakland. To each his own, i guess....

13. I don't agree with any of your logic. Lewis will be fine, the backfield is already crowded, and the Ravens will be in the playoff race late in the season due to a top-heavy and unbalanced AFC in 2006.

Unlike you, i have NO faith in Lewis. He's had 1 great season, a couple decent ones, and has been hurt often. Anderson is aging and seems to have been signed to play the role of FB/backup RB he played in DEN. IIRC, Lewis' contract makes it very easy to get rid of him in a year or 2. If Williams isn't here, I am 100% with you they go D.

20. I think Black is fine. Hard to contest your Chief fandom knowledge, but this is just such a wild pick... it surprised me reading it, but not in the "ahh that makes sense". They are going to lose half of their team this year or next to retirement and salary cap problems. They aren't drafting for the future, they are rearming for the last Super Bowl run they'll have for a few years. Rookie Tackles are not impact players that push good teams to great ones.

From watching so much, I'm 95% sure Black isn't the answer, though I think he could make a move to guard and be above-average. He looks good on paper, but when I saw the blocking break down last year, it was almost always him. Personally, I'd prefer to see them go defense here, but I couldn't really make myself believe anyone outside a DB is worth it at this pick, and withthem just signing Walls, I didn't think it was an option. I also agree they would be better served by someone who could impact them now, but I don't see anyone capable of that. Maybe a WR to play opposite Kennison this year?

30. Still isn't happening. This is the anti-lock pick of the draft.

Are you thinking they go with DR or do they sign/trade for a vet? Personally, I just can't see DR in that role for 16 games.

I think White would be eaten alive if he fell to Denver, but it's understandable for DEN to trade up for Davis, who is the more rare talent.

I'm not sold on White in Denver (or anywhere, and I think he's probably the guy that shocks everyone and falls out of the 1st. If Baltimore doesn't take Williams, though, I could see DEN snapping him up

 

[Red Herring]

Good stuff.

Absolutely hate this though:

6. DEN (from SF) - Vernon Davis - First trade here. SF has too many holes to like

15. SF (from DEN) - Antonio Cromartie - His knee seems fine, and SF is rebuilding

22. SF (from DEN) - DeMeco Ryans - Defense, defense, defense. They were hoping Carpenter or Greenway slips to here, but Ryans is the best available LB.

There is no way Ryans would be the pick at 22. He doesn't fit a 3-4 OLB at all. I'd look at guys like Lawson and Carpenter first.....perhaps even Lawson at 15.

I'll admit I'm higher on Cromartie than most, but I think SF can afford to bring him along slowly. You're right about ryans though. I wasn't thinking 3-4; Lawson is probably the pick here

 

[Patoons]

I see no reason why the Pats go WR in the first. They've consistently been successful with mid-round receivers. They'd be much better suited getting a replacement for Dillon.

 

[Red Herring]

I see no reason why the Pats go WR in the first. They've consistently been successful with mid-round receivers. They'd be much better suited getting a replacement for Dillon.

I agree its a need, but I don't think Maroney fits well with the Pats and White's apparent lack of discipline and ballooning weight make it unlikely (IMO) that Belichick takes him. I don't think Williams slips and anyone else is too much of a reach. I was kinda in regards to the pats pick, and Wr seemed to be the only place they had a need that wouldn't be a stretch to fill

 

[ExaltedOne]

There's no way Baltimore takes a runningback in the first, especially with Bunkley still available.

 

[Chaos Commish]

There's no way Baltimore takes a runningback in the first, especially with Bunkley still available.

Baltimore is a BPA drafting team, not a needs drafting team. They are hard to predict.

 

[ExaltedOne]

There's no way Baltimore takes a runningback in the first, especially with Bunkley still available.

Baltimore is a BPA drafting team, not a needs drafting team. They are hard to predict.

Maybe but in this scenario Bunkley is the BPA AND a need.

 

[kmswim03]

There we go. The more I look at it, this draft seems to have a huge drop-off in talent after the top 15 or so. The combine seems to have eliminated any major sleepers as well. I'm guessing the TV ratings drop after the first hour or so, especially once VY is gone.

You do realize that there will only have been 3 or 4 picks done withing an hour right? If someone wants to watch the draft, they will watch through the top 10 at least.

 

[Red Herring]

There we go. The more I look at it, this draft seems to have a huge drop-off in talent after the top 15 or so. The combine seems to have eliminated any major sleepers as well. I'm guessing the TV ratings drop after the first hour or so, especially once VY is gone.

You do realize that there will only have been 3 or 4 picks done withing an hour right? If someone wants to watch the draft, they will watch through the top 10 at least.

You're probably right. my bad. I still say wherever VY gets draftd is when people turn the channel.

 

[cstu]

I see no reason why the Pats go WR in the first. They've consistently been successful with mid-round receivers. They'd be much better suited getting a replacement for Dillon.

I agree its a need, but I don't think Maroney fits well with the Pats and White's apparent lack of discipline and ballooning weight make it unlikely (IMO) that Belichick takes him. I don't think Williams slips and anyone else is too much of a reach. I was kinda in regards to the pats pick, and Wr seemed to be the only place they had a need that wouldn't be a stretch to fill

The Patriots did fine with Antowain Smith so I think they can get by with Dillon for another year. The WR's are very weak and dependent on Branch's healthy. Were he to get hurt, they'd have no passing game outside of their TE's. I think Holmes would be a great pick since he's the prototype Patriots WR. It's bad enough having to start a rookie let alone a mid-round WR. Branch contributed his rookie year, but he was a 2nd round pick, and Givens basically did nothing until his 2nd season. Bethel Johnson was also a 2nd round pick and only had 16 catches his rookie year.

 

[Chaos Commish]

There's no way Baltimore takes a runningback in the first, especially with Bunkley still available.

Baltimore is a BPA drafting team, not a needs drafting team. They are hard to predict.

Maybe but in this scenario Bunkley is the BPA AND a need.

Maybe but Rang listed Bunkley as one of the few players getting a slight downgrade for character issues. I know nothing of them, which is why I asked the question, but those in the know have been very noticeably downgrading Brodrick for about two weeks now. I don't know why, but I think Rang gave us a clue. I think his unexpected size is another clue. Just a clue, but you know what I mean? It's hard to say with certainty that Bunkley is BPA at that point. DeAngelo grades very high as a player and producer, intangibles and character are strengths.

 

[msommer]

There we go. The more I look at it, this draft seems to have a huge drop-off in talent after the top 15 or so. The combine seems to have eliminated any major sleepers as well. I'm guessing the TV ratings drop after the first hour or so, especially once VY is gone.

You do realize that there will only have been 3 or 4 picks done withing an hour right? If someone wants to watch the draft, they will watch through the top 10 at least.

You're probably right. my bad. I still say wherever VY gets draftd is when people turn the channel.

#6 to Denver i/o Vernon

 

[ShaneFalco]

If Michael Huff is available there is no way that the Lions pass on him. Especially for Simms

 

[Red Herring]

If Michael Huff is available there is no way that the Lions pass on him. Especially for Simms

To replace Kennedy or Bashir?

 

[Despyzer]

Feel free to pick it apart, this is mostly off the top of my head.

19. SD - Chad Jackson

I doubt the Chargers take a WR, but AJ is losing his mind, so who knows. I think OL or DB.

I agree. Chargers have much bigger needs than WR, but picking a wideout at #19 seems to be the cookie cutter response.

 

[Red Herring]

Feel free to pick it apart, this is mostly off the top of my head.

19. SD - Chad Jackson

I doubt the Chargers take a WR, but AJ is losing his mind, so who knows. I think OL or DB.

I agree. Chargers have much bigger needs than WR, but picking a wideout at #19 seems to be the cookie cutter response.

I suppose Tye Hill wouldn't be too much of a reach at 19. Why would it be cookie cutter though? McCardell isn't a true #1 and isn't that young, either. They'll have to get someone soon, why not give your young QB a better chance?

 

[nerangers]

21. NE - Santonio Holmes - Fits what the Pats like out of their WR: good hands, good routes, gets open, great after the catch.

22. SF (from DEN) - DeMeco Ryans - Defense, defense, defense. They were hoping Carpenter or Greenway slips to here, but Ryans is the best available LB.

The Patriots won't go WR here (I still think they will get a FA WR around June)...They are more likely to draft DeMeco Ryans. The Pats play a 3-4 and they are interested in him, so I am not sure why others here think he is not suited for the 3-4.Patriots | Team has met twice with Ryans

Thu, 13 Apr 2006 06:01:54 -0700

Don Seeholzer, of the Pioneer Press, reports the New England Patriots have met twice with Alabama LB DeMeco Ryans. Because of his size (6 feet 1, 236 pounds), Ryans may be best suited to playing weakside linebacker in the NFL and is projected to go anywhere from the lower half of the first round to the middle of the second.

 

[nerangers]

I also agree that SF has too many holes and should trade down. I like Vernon going to the Broncos from a Fantasy Football perspective.

 

[MLBrandow]

I also agree that SF has too many holes and should trade down. I like Vernon going to the Broncos from a Fantasy Football perspective.

If they can sell Denver on it, 15&22, while perhaps not a "draft value chart" deal, would be great for them. Two pretty good players would serve them much better than a blue chip liable to hold out or jet at the first chance he gets.Re: IND pick

I'm not sure where they go, but it won't be RB. Why waste a 1st round pick? Anyone can run against 6 guys in the box. There's surely going to be a dropoff in talent with Edge gone, so instead of 1500 rushing and 50 receptions, you get 1200 rushing and 20 receptions. That's still pretty good, considering that just about anyone could plug into that role and do it (at least in my opinion).

Like you, I'm not sold on DR for the whole year by himself, but I'm sure they'll figure out a contingency plan. Maybe they go after Harrison or Drew.... but a 1st rounder just isn't a good value for the drop off at RB. I'd put Maroney in the same 2nd tier.... and there likely will still be a few good 2nd tier RBs available at the end of day 1.

Re: KC pick

I will defer to your breaking down of game film here. Do you really think that Winston would make that much of a difference over Black? If you are, I'll buy the pick. If you don't think he would be a significant upgrade THIS year, there's no chance they take him.

What would be great for them is to grab Maurice Stovall in the 2nd round. They need another target who can out-jump a 5'10 CB.

In watching so much game film, I'm sure you noticed that Green's propensity to throw INTs has little to do with Green's accuracy and much more to do with either a) throwing to a midgit receiver who gets outfoxed, or b) throwing into triple-covered Tony Gonzalez.

I really think they need an impact defensive player, and I think one can still be had at 20. Looks like they've got a good shot at landing Law.... so I don't think CB.

I'd really love for them to land Jonathan Lewis or Mahelona, but who knows. They are in one of the worst spots relative to what they need in the entire league.

 

[Despyzer]

I suppose Tye Hill wouldn't be too much of a reach at 19. Why would it be cookie cutter though? McCardell isn't a true #1 and isn't that young, either. They'll have to get someone soon, why not give your young QB a better chance?

It's cookie cutter because that's what everyone is saying. I don't think Moss or Jackson are really much of an improvement over the guys they have.

 

[gzilla]

Feel free to pick it apart, this is mostly off the top of my head. I was planning on including a few trades, but only one really made sense. I think the days of being able to trade down for multiple picks are gone. Lets get on with it.

1. HOU - Reggie Bush - I still think HOU is stupid not to trade down, but if they can't get a good deal, Bush is too good to pass up. I still think the Jets trading their two 1st's for Bush would be ideal, but it doesn't seem likely at this point.

2. NO - D'Brickashaw Ferguson - Another spot that should be traded out of, but probably won't be unless somehow Bush slips. LT's like Fergie don't come along often, and they'll finally have a replacement for Roaf.

3. TEN - Matt Lienart - Lock of the draft so far. VY's slide down the draft board makes TEN's choice easy. He'll sit behind Volek for a year, more or less, and step in nicely when given a chance. Watch out for Volek pulling a Brees and not letting him off the bench though.

4. NYJ - Mario Williams - Best available player here. The Jets have a lot of holes, and will be quite happy to take Williams here.

5. GB - AJ Hawk - Another team with a lot of needs and LB is a big one. Not only is Hawk the best available, he should start at WLB and free up Barnett a bit

6. DEN (from SF) - Vernon Davis - First trade here. SF has too many holes to like any one player here, so they trade the pick for DEN's 15 and 22 overall. Davis is a stud and will fit nicely into the role Sharpe played for them back in the day.

7. OAK - Vince Young - The first reach of the draft, and no shock Al Davis makes it. Aaron Brooks' contract certainly seems tailored to groom a QB. It wouldn't surprise me if the Raiders organization were the ones to leak the Wonderlic score to insure he fell to them here.

8. BUF - Winston Justice - They'll be loking for a trade, but not likely find one unless Vernon Davis has slipped here. They need a LT badly and apart from character questions (which I think WJ has answered) he grades as high as Fergie.

9. DET - Ernie Sims - At best their LB core has untapped potential. At worst, they just aren't very good. Sims sneaks into the top 10 here, unless Millen decides he needs another WR.

10. ARI - Michael Huff - Best player available here. They'll try him at CB opposite Rolle, and he can fill in for Griffith or Wilson if needed. Would give them a great secondary in a year or 2.

11. StL - Jimmy Williams - The Rams need secondary help badly. Cromartie is probably a better prospect, but Williams can fill in at CB or S, giving them more flexibility to draft or trade for more help.

12. CLE - Bobby Carpenter - Romeo's defense needs more playable LBs. Greenway is a better prospect, but Carpenter fits the system better.

13. BAL - DeAngelo Williams - Baltimore couldn't be happier to see Williams here. He sits until Lewis gets injured, gets time behind MA, then gets a chance to start in the last few games when they are out of the playoff chase.

14. PHI - Broderick Bunkley - Best available and fits their defense well. WR seems the only need position, but the last thing they need there is a rookie.

15. SF (from DEN) - Antonio Cromartie - His knee seems fine, and SF is rebuilding and can afford to let him learn on the job.

16. MIA - Chad Greenway - Thomas is getting older and the depth past Thomas and Crowder is sketchy at best.

17. MIN - Jay Cutler - I'm not sure I can see him slipping to 17, but I can't really see who would give up whats neede to trade up for him.

18. DAL - Haloti Ngata - His "motor" questions drop him here. Parcells will get his motor going just fine.

19. SD - Chad Jackson - Chargers grab a WR for Rivers to grow with and eventually take over for McCardell. Jackson over Holmes by a hair due to speed and size.

20. KC - Eric Winston - As a Chiefs fan, it sucks the Bunkley shot up the draft board. Sampson and Black are not the answer at RT and Roaf is aging. Winston plays RT until Roaf retires, then moves to LT.

21. NE - Santonio Holmes - Fits what the Pats like out of their WR: good hands, good routes, gets open, great after the catch.

22. SF (from DEN) - DeMeco Ryans - Defense, defense, defense. They were hoping Carpenter or Greenway slips to here, but Ryans is the best available LB.

23. TB - Mathias Kiwanuka - Kiwi may be the next Rice, and having Rice on both sides of the line for a few years will be scary.

24. CIN - Leonard Pope - No glaring needs mean another weapon for Palmer.

25. NYG - Tye Hill - Fills the hole left by Will Allen. Hill's speed is too enticing to let him drop farther.

26. CHI - Sinorice Moss - I can't imagine 3 WR going in the 1st this year, but Grossman needs someone to throw to besides Muhsie.

27. CAR - Thomas Howard - Car still needs to solidify SLB, and Howard fits perfectly.

28. JAX - Jason Allen - CB seems to be the biggest ? for them, and he can be moved to S if necessary.

29. NYJ (from DEN) - Marcus McNeill - Their gamble pays off as they get a great replacement for Abraham and a solid LT.

30. IND - Lawrence Maroney - They get a RB to replace Edge. No surprise here.

31. SEA - Tamba Hali - Wistrom is aging quickly, enter Hali.

32. PIT - LenDale White - The rich get richer. White really hurt himself with his workout/eating habits, but he won't slip much farther than this.

There we go. The more I look at it, this draft seems to have a huge drop-off in talent after the top 15 or so. The combine seems to have eliminated any major sleepers as well. I'm guessing the TV ratings drop after the first hour or so, especially once VY is gone.

Can the Jets really afford to miss out on Leinart? It seems like they could trade up to 2 pretty easily without having to give away this entire draft.

 

[Red Herring]

I also agree that SF has too many holes and should trade down.  I like Vernon going to the Broncos from a Fantasy Football perspective.

Like you, I'm not sold on DR for the whole year by himself, but I'm sure they'll figure out a contingency plan. Maybe they go after Harrison or Drew.... but a 1st rounder just isn't a good value for the drop off at RB. I'd put Maroney in the same 2nd tier.... and there likely will still be a few good 2nd tier RBs available at the end of day 1.there si where we differ ... If I had Maroney as a 2nd tier guy, I don't dip into tier 2 either. I happen to think he's a guy that needs the right system to flourish, but in the right place, he shines. just IMO.

Re: KC pick

I will defer to your breaking down of game film here. Do you really think that Winston would make that much of a difference over Black? If you are, I'll buy the pick. If you don't think he would be a significant upgrade THIS year, there's no chance they take him.

honestly, I think Winston = Black this year as his rookie mistakes will probably = those of Black. As he acclimates to the pro game, he'll make a fine RT, probably 2-3 pro-bowls over a 10 year career or so? If he can get back to pre-injury form, he can move to LT to replace Roaf eventually, and you can probably add a good 5 pro-bowls to that. I think that much of Winston in KC.

What would be great for them is to grab Maurice Stovall in the 2nd round. They need another target who can out-jump a 5'10 CB.

In watching so much game film, I'm sure you noticed that Green's propensity to throw INTs has little to do with Green's accuracy and much more to do with either a) throwing to a midgit receiver who gets outfoxed, or b) throwing into triple-covered Tony Gonzalez.

Agree totally. I wish there were a good, large WR available, but thre havent been any in the last couple drafts. The lack of a true #1 has really hurt them in the playoffs, IMO.

I really think they need an impact defensive player, and I think one can still be had at 20. Looks like they've got a good shot at landing Law.... so I don't think CB.

I'd really love for them to land Jonathan Lewis or Mahelona, but who knows. They are in one of the worst spots relative to what they need in the entire league.

You think they still go after Law since they signed Walls? If so, I'd rather they spent less money on Tye Hill or Jason Allen than the mega-bucks Law wants. I'm not sold on Whitner at this point. The rest of the impact defensive players I see are LB and one position I think needs the least worry for them is LB. They could really use a Bunkley or Ngata, but I don't think they have the ammo to move up.

 

[Red Herring]

Can the Jets really afford to miss out on Leinart? It seems like they could trade up to 2 pretty easily without having to give away this entire draft.

Unless its really cheap, I wouldn't. I don't think Leinart is that much of a can't-miss perrenial pro-bowler that you give up much to get him, especially when they brought in Ramsey. Leinart = Ramsey w/ a better idea how to win, IMO. If Ramsey winds up that horrible, they can grab a guy next year. Talent-wise, I see Bush in a tier by himself, Leinart/Williams/Hawk/Fergie/VD next. If there is a player you need in that group, I see no reason to pay to move up when an impact guy of equal talent can help you just as much and you get to pay him less.