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Young LB value (1 Viewer)

What kind of value do you guys think young LBs, like DeMeco Ryans or Patrick Willis, have in relation to players at the offensive skill positions? Granted some of this depends on the scoring system of a given league, but how do you guys evaluate a trade of one of those LBs for a similarly young QB, for example?

 
I think this topic is general enough -- and important enough -- to move to the main forum to get the most eyes to it.

 
What kind of value do you guys think young LBs, like DeMeco Ryans or Patrick Willis, have in relation to players at the offensive skill positions? Granted some of this depends on the scoring system of a given league, but how do you guys evaluate a trade of one of those LBs for a similarly young QB, for example?
For me (and I've never been a big wheeler dealer) it depends on depth and needs at the given positions. Alot a variables come into play, but here's the basic thing I look at. If I'm sitting with quality depth at QB and need help at LB, I ask myself ... Am I willing to sacrafice my QB depth to get (what I feel, not others) a stud IDP LB?

Do I feel this will make my team better, now and down the road? (I also pay attention to the team I'm trading with.)

I'm partial to the IDP side, so I would prolly be tempted to give more for a Ryans or Willis, then someone else. :lmao:

This is why trading is so difficult to govern in a FF league. Folks value players differently. Player value's will and do vary due to needs and circumstances. Someone who is a more experienced trader can give you a better perspective.

 
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I will say one thing. Patrick Willis is one of the toughest guys to trade for right now. At any cost! :shrug:

 
Good topic.

I find personally that many of the players I play with in IDP dynasty refuse to trade any form of offensive player for any IDP; regardless of tier. The reason I think that is? Probably because many people fear getting duped from either end. It's easier to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.

 
In my 14 team IDP, and with our scoring (2pt tks etc) we pretty much value O and D comparably. LBs are the RBs of the defense, and you are going to have a hard time getting the top guys. WRs are also extremely valuable, but I could not pull off a Steve Smith/B Rudd trade for Willis/A Gonzalez.

Hope that gives you an idea.

 
What kind of value do you guys think young LBs, like DeMeco Ryans or Patrick Willis, have in relation to players at the offensive skill positions? Granted some of this depends on the scoring system of a given league, but how do you guys evaluate a trade of one of those LBs for a similarly young QB, for example?
1 Am I gaining more relative advantage for my starting lineup with this trade?You win by outscoring your opponent. No rocket science there. But it's the relative advantage that matters. If I'm giving 2 points at QB on average, but gaining 4 points at LB in my lineup, that's a deal that improves my chances of winning. The names and inaccuracies of your own market don't matter. If I'm getting more points into my lineup relative to my opponents, I'm more likely to win.

2 Am I grossly underselling or overpaying for this advantage based on my league market?

Still, it's not good trading practice to completely ignore the inaccuracies of your market altogether. There's no reason to offer more than you need to pull off a trade that improves your relative advantage. Other times, though, you may be sending a player with more value than the "numbers" would suggest, i.e. you can probably get more "value" on the market for this guy in a different deal. Then, the critical question becomes...

3 Is it worth it to overpay or undersell for the advantage?

You don't want to get a reputation as an owner that will overpay or undersell in the market. You'll get squeezed with every subsequent offer. Still, your objective is to win. Unless it's crazy, the right thing to do is take the relative advantage when you can.

I once dealt Willis McGahee for Jamie Sharper. Chris Chambers for London Fletcher. High draft picks for sure IDP talent, etc. All moves that didn't look great in the market at the time, but improved the bottom line of my team. The trades can go the opposite way, too, but given that most leagues short IDP scoring and value the ESPN offensive studs, the giving offense for defense deals tend to be the hardest to get your mind around.

tjford said:
I find personally that many of the players I play with in IDP dynasty refuse to trade any form of offensive player for any IDP; regardless of tier. The reason I think that is? Probably because many people fear getting duped from either end. It's easier to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
The key here is that all these players are apples when you consider each deal in terms of relative advantage. What's the net effect of improving my LB3 slot to LB1 points (+ 5ppg) while losing valuable depth (0ppg) or giving a WR2 I can replace with a WR3 with upside (- 2-3ppg)? It may not seem quite that simple -- there's a difficult to calculate effect of the inaccuracy of your league's market -- but come playoff time it really is that simple.
 
tex said:
I will say one thing. Patrick Willis is one of the toughest guys to trade for right now. At any cost! :thumbup:
I just traded Willis away, but did it because I was offered DeMeco Ryans, Trent Cole and Demetrius Williams (WR). I was weak at DL so Cole helped, and I value Ryans and Willis similarly. Adding a young WR didn't hurt either.However, the offer came from a 49er homer and included another top LB, not exactly what you're asking about.
 
tjford said:
I find personally that many of the players I play with in IDP dynasty refuse to trade any form of offensive player for any IDP; regardless of tier. The reason I think that is? Probably because many people fear getting duped from either end. It's easier to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
The key here is that all these players are apples when you consider each deal in terms of relative advantage. What's the net effect of improving my LB3 slot to LB1 points (+ 5ppg) while losing valuable depth (0ppg) or giving a WR2 I can replace with a WR3 with upside (- 2-3ppg)? It may not seem quite that simple -- there's a difficult to calculate effect of the inaccuracy of your league's market -- but come playoff time it really is that simple.
I definitely agree myself, the bottom line of FF; teams that score more points are better teams, always applies. But I definitely see the hesitancy of many players to make any form of offense for defense trades. In fact, I've been quoted that very thing in trade rejected emails; "I don't like to trade offense for defense."Even LB starving teams will be hesitant to jump on an deal that is obviously mutually beneficial in my experience. Case in point: Team is out of contract years and is forced to start an IR'd LB; I have six legitimate linebackers (Start 4) and offer to move one for one of his bench receivers. My LB starts for him; his WR starts for me. Increased points for both teams. Contracts are equal and we aren't divisional opponents. He balks at the trade and opts to start his IR'd LB. Makes no sense to me but he obviously had a reason to say no.

Call me crazy, but I have a sneaking suspicion that relative value is a lost term. With the difficulties of already having to assign value derived from upside and equate it to value derived from production (inherent to dynasty formats), attempting to equate value derived from production from defense and depress it due to the wide availability of IDPs is likely something many owners tend to shy away from. It is easier to justify a like-for-like trade because only youth and production (or situation) come into play rather than the inclusion of position relative value.

 
tjford said:
I find personally that many of the players I play with in IDP dynasty refuse to trade any form of offensive player for any IDP; regardless of tier. The reason I think that is? Probably because many people fear getting duped from either end. It's easier to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
The key here is that all these players are apples when you consider each deal in terms of relative advantage. What's the net effect of improving my LB3 slot to LB1 points (+ 5ppg) while losing valuable depth (0ppg) or giving a WR2 I can replace with a WR3 with upside (- 2-3ppg)? It may not seem quite that simple -- there's a difficult to calculate effect of the inaccuracy of your league's market -- but come playoff time it really is that simple.
....Call me crazy, but I have a sneaking suspicion that relative value is a lost term. With the difficulties of already having to assign value derived from upside and equate it to value derived from production (inherent to dynasty formats), attempting to equate value derived from production from defense and depress it due to the wide availability of IDPs is likely something many owners tend to shy away from. It is easier to justify a like-for-like trade because only youth and production (or situation) come into play rather than the inclusion of position relative value.
Great post.
 
Thanks for the thoughtful responses guys. It sounds like the situation Im in is not the norm in that the offer was made to me and Im the one with the young LB. The offensive player Id be receiving definitely fills a position of need with me, but isnt quite the sure thing that my LB seems to be.

 
I find personally that many of the players I play with in IDP dynasty refuse to trade any form of offensive player for any IDP; regardless of tier. The reason I think that is? Probably because many people fear getting duped from either end. It's easier to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges.
The key here is that all these players are apples when you consider each deal in terms of relative advantage. What's the net effect of improving my LB3 slot to LB1 points (+ 5ppg) while losing valuable depth (0ppg) or giving a WR2 I can replace with a WR3 with upside (- 2-3ppg)? It may not seem quite that simple -- there's a difficult to calculate effect of the inaccuracy of your league's market -- but come playoff time it really is that simple.
....Call me crazy, but I have a sneaking suspicion that relative value is a lost term. With the difficulties of already having to assign value derived from upside and equate it to value derived from production (inherent to dynasty formats), attempting to equate value derived from production from defense and depress it due to the wide availability of IDPs is likely something many owners tend to shy away from. It is easier to justify a like-for-like trade because only youth and production (or situation) come into play rather than the inclusion of position relative value.
Great post.
:goodposting: People avoid that because they don't feel confident doing it. For that very reason I like to try to trade second tier offensive players for IDP starters just because that's where you can get your value. Often I'll do it as a fallback position in trade talks, particularly if what I'm trading away is a "surplus player" at a given position.

 
Some good thoughts in here.

What I want to point out when considering offense vs. defense value is that a top LBer is a VERY consistent scorer for you. Actually much more so than a WR and most other offensive players will be. As long as that LB is healthy he is getting tackles in a steady dose. Those are solid points you can depend on every week not dependent on the game plan like it will be for a WR or RB whos performance will be more up and down.

Look at the careers of say Zach Thomas vs. any good WR over the years. In a scoring system where a tackle = 10 yards Zach was a much more consistent and solid play than any WR was on a weekly basis. The WR only keeps pace for EOY stats because of the TD spikes in scoring. Zach was giving owners 10+ tackles almost every week for years. Week after week. No WR is going to consistently post 100 yard games every week.

A solid young LB is worth more than I think a lot of owners realize.

 
Case in point:

I was hurting for LB in my 32 team dynasty league. I sent out offers offering up one of my draft picks for a solid LB or even some of my depth at the DE spot. Nobody bit. But then I sent out an offer to a couple of teams offering Ted Ginn for AJ Hawk or Freddie Keiaho. The owner of Hawk jumped at it.

Ginn was a starter for me last year (sadly) but he ended up scoring over 120+ pts. My only other starters at LB were Bruschi ( :thumbup: ) and David Harris (we can start 4 LB's). Hawks addition to my team will add another 100+ points and I can replace Ginn with Antwan Randle El (we receive pts for kick/punt returns).

I assume the guy jumped on the offer so quickly because in many peoples eyes Hawk has been a disappointment and Ginn has potential (though I never put my faith in players who have a new coaching staff unless they are proven veterans). But there in lies the "offensive players and their preference" theory.

 
I'm always trying to manufacture a top 20-32 LB from the "net benefit" category.

An example is Stephen Nicholas in ATL. Dem Williams signs elsewhere and it's apparent that ATL drafted Nicholas to be the next in line.

There's plenty of examples of LB's moving on....see Calvin Pace and Darryl Blackstock in ARI. Maybe the heir presumptive is on the ARI roster, maybe it's a player that comes from the Rookie Draft? Either way, maybe that's a good way to approach this thread?

Who's moving on and who's the heir presumptive? :lmao:

 
The key here is that all these players are apples when you consider each deal in terms of relative advantage. What's the net effect of improving my LB3 slot to LB1 points (+ 5ppg) while losing valuable depth (0ppg) or giving a WR2 I can replace with a WR3 with upside (- 2-3ppg)? It may not seem quite that simple -- there's a difficult to calculate effect of the inaccuracy of your league's market -- but come playoff time it really is that simple.
This is usually how I look at it. I've given up good draft picks for IDP's. A couple years ago, I gave up the 1.13 for Sean Taylor. It was a good deal for me since it was a WR3 that I was going to draft and it was most likely a rook that I was going to sit on. It boils down to overall value like Jene mentioned. Great thread by the way. :thumbup:
 

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