Young NFL Head Coaches (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

I've been seeing a lot of folks disparage the hiring of Josh McDaniels by the Broncos because of his age. While I think there are plenty of reasons to wonder if McDaniels is the right hire, I think focusing on his age makes little sense. We do this every time some NFL team hires a young coach; and yet I'm not sure there's evidence to suggest that young coaches are more likely to flounder.

Here is a list of the youngest head coaching hires in NFL history:

Lane Kiffin, Oakland Raiders May 9, 1975 31 years, 8 months

Harland Svare, Los Angeles Rams November 25, 1930 31 years, 11 months

John Michelosen, Pittsburgh Steelers February 13, 1916 32 years, 2 months

David Shula, Cincinnati Bengals May 28, 1959 32 years, 7 months

Josh McDaniels, Denver Broncos April 22, 1976 32 years, 8 months

John Madden, Oakland Raiders April 10, 1936 32 years, 10 months

Don Shula, Baltimore Colts January 4, 1930 33 years, 4 days

Al Davis, Oakland Raiders July 4, 1929 33 years, 6 months

Joe Collier, Buffalo Bills June 7, 1932 33 years, 7 months

Bob Snyder, Los Angeles Rams February 6, 1913 33 years, 11 month

Jim Trimble, Philadelphia Eagles May 29, 1918 34 years, 3 months

Jon Gruden, Oakland Raiders August 17, 1963 34 years, 5 months

Bill Cowher, Pittsburgh Steelers May 8, 1957 34 years, 8 months, 13 days

Joe Kuharich, Chicago Cardinals April 14, 1917 34 years, 8 months, 25 days

Norm Van Brocklin, Minnesota Vikings March 15, 1926 34 years, 10 months, 3 days

Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers March 15, 1972 34 years, 10 months, 7 days

Joe Schmidt, Detroit Lions January 18, 1932 34 years, 11 months, 23 days

Eric Mangini, New York Jets January 19, 1971 34 years, 11 months, 28 days

Mike Shanahan, Los Angeles Raiders August 24, 1952 35 years, 6 months

**** Nolan, San Francisco 49ers March 26, 1932 35 years, 10 months

Do that look like a bad list to you? Shula and Madden are Hall of Famers, and both won championships. Cowher and Gruden did the same. Tomlin has done wonders in Pittsburgh. Shanahan struggled in Oakland but that was a personality conflict, he vindicated himself in Denver. If anything, this list looks to me like young hires INCREASE your chances for success.

 

[guderian]

I think that the level of complexity in the modern NFL is considerably greater than it was in the Shula-Madden era. Today these teams are billion dollar enterprises and they have more issues to juggle--including a salary cap that hinders the good teams from hoarding talent. On that list are only 4 guys that were born in the 60's or later--Kiffin, Gruden, Tomlin and Mangini. I just don't think that we have the data to make a judgment either way.

 

[Jason Wood]

I think that the level of complexity in the modern NFL is considerably greater than it was in the Shula-Madden era. Today these teams are billion dollar enterprises and they have more issues to juggle--including a salary cap that hinders the good teams from hoarding talent. On that list are only 4 guys that were born in the 60's or later--Kiffin, Gruden, Tomlin and Mangini. I just don't think that we have the data to make a judgment either way.

OK, but those four are certainly better than the average NFL hire. That's my point. Hiring young is by no means a guarantee of a better outcome, but I've seen a lot of people dismiss the decision to hire a young coach as a riskier/bad one. That's not the case, at least empirically.

 

[Chase Stuart]

As a corollary, rookie head coaches are pretty good, too.

 

[Die]

I don't think its enough to just list younger head coaches to make this assessment. You need 4 lists.

a. young head coaches that failed

b. young head coaches that succeeded

c. older head coaches that failed

d. older head coaches that succeeded

Once you have those 4 lists, then you can begin to draw some conclusions about which type of hire is more risky.

 

[moleculo]

I don't think its enough to just list younger head coaches to make this assessment. You need 4 lists.a. young head coaches that failedb. young head coaches that succeededc. older head coaches that failedd. older head coaches that succeededOnce you have those 4 lists, then you can begin to draw some conclusions about which type of hire is more risky.

or, simply do a regression analysis comparing age at first hire vs career w/l record. I'd bet that there isn't much of a correlation.

 

[Die]

I don't think its enough to just list younger head coaches to make this assessment. You need 4 lists.a. young head coaches that failedb. young head coaches that succeededc. older head coaches that failedd. older head coaches that succeededOnce you have those 4 lists, then you can begin to draw some conclusions about which type of hire is more risky.

or, simply do a regression analysis comparing age at first hire vs career w/l record. I'd bet that there isn't much of a correlation.

Hmm even better!