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Your 5 "MUST HAVES" in redraft for 2018 (1 Viewer)

TZMarkie

Footballguy
 I think these type threads pop up every season generally, though I may have overlooked it this year.

As I usually do, every preseason I work out exactly who I will be targeting in my redraft leagues, and this year has been no exception.

In my drafts this year, these are my 5 "must haves" this year, and I will be trying to acquire them everywhere I can. (Of course, any preseason injury may change my list)

  Jerick McKinnon -   Call it what you want, but this situation screams volume.  I like it all, the pass catching ability, the Shanahan tendency to heavily utilize his RBs, the big payday before the season......a whole host of other factors.  Do I think this is going to be the Shanahan-esque "Devonta Freeman" from a few years ago?  Not necessarily, but I think this is a chance to get one of the best high floor workloads thats not currently being drafted in the top 8.  (This is also a must-handcuff for me, for several reasons, but if McKinnon goes down, I will sure as Hell want Breida on my roster) I will try and "lock up this backfield" if at all possible.

Joe Mixon - This could easily go either way, but all preseason he has been the one I am focused on trying to get. I get all the "Bengals sucked last year" cries, but I think the fantasy community is largely overlooking at how highly this guy was touted coming out of college.  I think this is yet another chance to get a very high floor of a workload, but again, this is a definite handcuff for me. If I do get Mixon, I will definitely try and get Gio Bernard. Another "lock up the backfield" scenario for me.   NOTE - Its unlikely you will get McKinnon AND Mixon with where they are being drafted.

Ezekiel Elliott - This reeks of a massive workload.  Everyone says "they are going to have the box stacked routinely", but are you going to tell me they weren't actively trying to stop the EZE running in the past? Sure he can be a bit of a knucklehead , but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets more touches than ANY running back. Sign me up.    If I get #1 overall in any of my leagues, this will be a real question I have to consider....as I may just take him.

Doug Baldwin -  This is a bit of a cheat.   Word has come out he is having knee issues, and if that turns out to actually be a concern, then all bets are off here.  But if he looks good to go at the end of the preseason, I will be grabbing him in every league I can. He has all the facets of a "monster fantasy season" in the making....... Elite QB, poor defense, questionable WR play around him.   (Is Lockett really healthy, and as far as thats concerned, is Jaron Brown also???) If he stays healthy, and thats a massive IF ,I think Baldwin is damn near a lock for top 8-10 WR production. 

 Derrick Henry -   After Dion Lewis was signed, at first I didn't want any part of this backfield.  But then I remembered how Lewis has never been really healthy and very fantasy productive until late last season.  Henry is the last one on my list, that when he gets drafted just in front of me, I get a bit of a sinking feeling.   People forget Henry is not a bad pass catcher.  Is he a pass specialist like Lewis?  I wouldn't say that, but he certainly is capable. I don't think he will get a massive amount of passes since Lewis has come to town, but I think he should get more than the 17 targets he had last year.

 Sort of an honorable mention - I am also targeting Larry Fitzgerald as well, but the word is out, and he has been going earlier and earlier. It seems in the drafts I have been in the last few days, he has been slipping off the board earlier and earlier.

 Who all are you choosing as your "must haves" this season in your redrafts...??

TZM

 
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Kwai Chang Caine

Footballguy
Hopkins. I believe this year he becomes the unquestioned number one receiver in FF and have already once selected him over AB. Putting my money where my mouth is.

Andrew Luck. My absolute "swing for the fence pick" especially in super flex leagues. Everything sounds good to go with him.

TY Hilton. See above. Last year he was a tail end first round pick now going in the late third. 

A little deeper--Nelson Agholar. Guess where he finished last year? WR 17 in PPR. He may be the number 1 or 1A receiving option for the super bowl champs especially with Jeffrey on PUP. Watch his highlights from last year. He was excellent.

Corey Clement. For "zero RB" I know Sproles is back but this guy is an important piece of the offense as a runner and receiver. I don't believe for one second that Ajayi is going to get 250 touches. 

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
John brown is in Baltimore. Jaron brown is in Seattle. 
 Good catch. I knew already but actually forgot when I was writing this last night.

But oddly enough, that even furthers my interest In Baldwin. (as I'm not sold on Jaron Brown as highly as I was on Smokey when he was healthy)

I was discussing the Seattle WR corps with a buddy the other night, and he mentioned Tyler Lockett as a possible target, if Baldwin has any long term knee concerns. I know its the "silly season" where we can't trust everything we hear on players, but this whole Baldwin knee issue has really made me take a step back. I was getting Baldwin literally everywhere before this knee news came out.

Thanks again.

 TZM

 

Snorkelson

Footballguy
Jamison crowder- he’s available late, is clicking with smith, and is almost a lock for 85+ rec in my opinion. 

Vance McDonald- available super late, flashed in the playoffs huge upside. If he gets playing time watch out. 10-112 cs Jacksonville.  Top 5 upside in the last 4 rds. 

Tyler Lockett- yes, he is healthy @TZMarkie, and I’m on board even if Baldwin is healthy. The receiving corps there will have more red zone looks with graham gone. If Baldwin’s health is an issue he could be the #1 target by default. 

A 3rd down specialist- I’ll take someone a little later like ty Montgomery or Chris Thompson. They’re useful bye week fillers you can get in the mid-late portion of the draft. Ppr only. Chris Thompson was actually a top 5 back through 5 weeks last year iirc.

 

Shaunz33

Footballguy
Not sure if they are "must haves" but These guys are ones that I seem to end up getting often, whether real or mock drafts.

Fournette - I'm happy getting him during second half of round 1 and grabbing top notch WR (Allen, Jones, M Thomas) on way back. Versus the opposite of getting WR in 1st and RB in 2nd

Baldwin - tempered a bit based on latest news but i see his value around 2/3 turn. Maybe switch this out for D Thomas who is good value in 4th  

JuJu - I see as  top 15, will potentially be top 10-12 WR in scoring. He is going around WR20. ( 9 out of last 10 years there has been at least 1 WR pair both in top 12. (Half the years there has been 2 pairs). This year I see it as Brown/JuJu.

Crowell - he is starting RB going round 8/9. In my FBG I got him as WR36. He isn't going to crack top 15 or anything, but def good chance to be RB 20-25 putting up 160-170 this year. Which is fine if I punt on RB2

 Golladay - good upside for someone available round 12/13

 

Caesar

Footballguy
TZMarkie said:
 I think these type threads pop up every season generally, though I may have overlooked it this year.

As I usually do, every preseason I work out exactly who I will be targeting in my redraft leagues, and this year has been no exception.

In my drafts this year, these are my 5 "must haves" this year, and I will be trying to acquire them everywhere I can. (Of course, any preseason injury may change my list)

  Jerick McKinnon -   Call it what you want, but this situation screams volume.  I like it all, the pass catching ability, the Shanahan tendency to heavily utilize his RBs, the big payday before the season......a whole host of other factors.  Do I think this is going to be the Shanahan-esque "Devonta Freeman" from a few years ago?  Not necessarily, but I think this is a chance to get one of the best high floor workloads thats not currently being drafted in the top 8.  (This is also a must-handcuff for me, for several reasons, but if McKinnon goes down, I will sure as Hell want Breida on my roster) I will try and "lock up this backfield" if at all possible.

Joe Mixon - This could easily go either way, but all preseason he has been the one I am focused on trying to get. I get all the "Bengals sucked last year" cries, but I think the fantasy community is largely overlooking at how highly this guy was touted coming out of college.  I think this is yet another chance to get a very high floor of a workload, but again, this is a definite handcuff for me. If I do get Mixon, I will definitely try and get Gio Bernard. Another "lock up the backfield" scenario for me.   NOTE - Its unlikely you will get McKinnon AND Mixon with where they are being drafted.

Ezekiel Elliott - This reeks of a massive workload.  Everyone says "they are going to have the box stacked routinely", but are you going to tell me they weren't actively trying to stop the EZE running in the past? Sure he can be a bit of a knucklehead , but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets more touches than ANY running back. Sign me up.    If I get #1 overall in any of my leagues, this will be a real question I have to consider....as I may just take him.

Doug Baldwin -  This is a bit of a cheat.   Word has come out he is having knee issues, and if that turns out to actually be a concern, then all bets are off here.  But if he looks good to go at the end of the preseason, I will be grabbing him in every league I can. He has all the facets of a "monster fantasy season" in the making....... Elite QB, poor defense, questionable WR play around him.   (Is Lockett really healthy, and as far as thats concerned, is Jaron Brown also???) If he stays healthy, and thats a massive IF ,I think Baldwin is damn near a lock for top 8-10 WR production. 

 Derrick Henry -   After Dion Lewis was signed, at first I didn't want any part of this backfield.  But then I remembered how Lewis has never been really healthy and very fantasy productive until late last season.  Henry is the last one on my list, that when he gets drafted just in front of me, I get a bit of a sinking feeling.   People forget Henry is not a bad pass catcher.  Is he a pass specialist like Lewis?  I wouldn't say that, but he certainly is capable. I don't think he will get a massive amount of passes since Lewis has come to town, but I think he should get more than the 17 targets he had last year.

 Sort of an honorable mention - I am also targeting Larry Fitzgerald as well, but the word is out, and he has been going earlier and earlier. It seems in the drafts I have been in the last few days, he has been slipping off the board earlier and earlier.

 Who all are you choosing as your "must haves" this season in your redrafts...??

TZM
So, if you have the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, and it falls right, would you be willing to go Elliot, McKinnon, Mixon in the first three rounds? 

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
TZMarkie said:
 I think these type threads pop up every season generally, though I may have overlooked it this year.

As I usually do, every preseason I work out exactly who I will be targeting in my redraft leagues, and this year has been no exception.

In my drafts this year, these are my 5 "must haves" this year, and I will be trying to acquire them everywhere I can. (Of course, any preseason injury may change my list)

  Jerick McKinnon -   Call it what you want, but this situation screams volume.  I like it all, the pass catching ability, the Shanahan tendency to heavily utilize his RBs, the big payday before the season......a whole host of other factors.  Do I think this is going to be the Shanahan-esque "Devonta Freeman" from a few years ago?  Not necessarily, but I think this is a chance to get one of the best high floor workloads thats not currently being drafted in the top 8.  (This is also a must-handcuff for me, for several reasons, but if McKinnon goes down, I will sure as Hell want Breida on my roster) I will try and "lock up this backfield" if at all possible.

Joe Mixon - This could easily go either way, but all preseason he has been the one I am focused on trying to get. I get all the "Bengals sucked last year" cries, but I think the fantasy community is largely overlooking at how highly this guy was touted coming out of college.  I think this is yet another chance to get a very high floor of a workload, but again, this is a definite handcuff for me. If I do get Mixon, I will definitely try and get Gio Bernard. Another "lock up the backfield" scenario for me.   NOTE - Its unlikely you will get McKinnon AND Mixon with where they are being drafted.

Ezekiel Elliott - This reeks of a massive workload.  Everyone says "they are going to have the box stacked routinely", but are you going to tell me they weren't actively trying to stop the EZE running in the past? Sure he can be a bit of a knucklehead , but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets more touches than ANY running back. Sign me up.    If I get #1 overall in any of my leagues, this will be a real question I have to consider....as I may just take him.

Doug Baldwin -  This is a bit of a cheat.   Word has come out he is having knee issues, and if that turns out to actually be a concern, then all bets are off here.  But if he looks good to go at the end of the preseason, I will be grabbing him in every league I can. He has all the facets of a "monster fantasy season" in the making....... Elite QB, poor defense, questionable WR play around him.   (Is Lockett really healthy, and as far as thats concerned, is Jaron Brown also???) If he stays healthy, and thats a massive IF ,I think Baldwin is damn near a lock for top 8-10 WR production. 

 Derrick Henry -   After Dion Lewis was signed, at first I didn't want any part of this backfield.  But then I remembered how Lewis has never been really healthy and very fantasy productive until late last season.  Henry is the last one on my list, that when he gets drafted just in front of me, I get a bit of a sinking feeling.   People forget Henry is not a bad pass catcher.  Is he a pass specialist like Lewis?  I wouldn't say that, but he certainly is capable. I don't think he will get a massive amount of passes since Lewis has come to town, but I think he should get more than the 17 targets he had last year.

 Sort of an honorable mention - I am also targeting Larry Fitzgerald as well, but the word is out, and he has been going earlier and earlier. It seems in the drafts I have been in the last few days, he has been slipping off the board earlier and earlier.

 Who all are you choosing as your "must haves" this season in your redrafts...??

TZM
It would seem impossible to get those five guys on your team since 4 of them are going in the first two rounds. 

Zeke and Baldwin is possible or McKinnon and Mixon if you’re at the back of the draft (but you’re reaching and there’s other backs I’d much prefer over Mixon available there).

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
So, if you have the 1st or 2nd pick in the draft, and it falls right, would you be willing to go Elliot, McKinnon, Mixon in the first three rounds? 


 Actually no, I wouldn't necessarily want to do this in my leagues. But there is a reason why, that I haven't pointed out.

Most of the leagues I play in, are START 3 WRS (and no flex).  Essentially, in my leagues I can only start 2 RBs.  So although I love the idea of getting those three, in the leagues I play in its not something I would do. I'm much more inclined to take1-2 WRs early, get one of the above mentioned RBs, then get 2 WRs, and take Derrick Henry later down the track.  In these leagues, I feel like getting at least one top notch WR is pretty much mandatory.

 (There is actually one PPR/points per touch league I am in again this season, and having all those is much more attractive in that setup)

 TZM

 

TZMarkie

Footballguy
It would seem impossible to get those five guys on your team since 4 of them are going in the first two rounds. 

Zeke and Baldwin is possible or McKinnon and Mixon if you’re at the back of the draft (but you’re reaching and there’s other backs I’d much prefer over Mixon available there).


 Right. Getting all of these guys on one team is pretty much impossible, but getting as many as I can everywhere is generally what I am doing. Getting 2 of my list is pretty easily done.

Actually, getting 2 of Zeke,Baldwin,McKinnon and Mixon is easy, then I have been following it up with Derrick Henry later.

 TZM

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
I’ll be keeping an eye on Andrew Luck, but I suspect his draft value will be drained by draft day.  Same with T.Y Hilton.

The world seems to be warming up to Alex Collins...once he became the man in BAL, he was an RB1.  

The world is down on Amari Cooper.  Gruden’s M-O has been to feed his #1 WR.  The opportunity will be there for Cooper to seize it.

People forget how good Jordan Reed is when he’s healthy.  That’s a big ‘if’ but the TE position isn’t that exciting.

 

FGITLOTR

Footballguy
TZMarkie said:
 I think these type threads pop up every season generally, though I may have overlooked it this year.

As I usually do, every preseason I work out exactly who I will be targeting in my redraft leagues, and this year has been no exception.

In my drafts this year, these are my 5 "must haves" this year, and I will be trying to acquire them everywhere I can. (Of course, any preseason injury may change my list)

  Jerick McKinnon -   Call it what you want, but this situation screams volume.  I like it all, the pass catching ability, the Shanahan tendency to heavily utilize his RBs, the big payday before the season......a whole host of other factors.  Do I think this is going to be the Shanahan-esque "Devonta Freeman" from a few years ago?  Not necessarily, but I think this is a chance to get one of the best high floor workloads thats not currently being drafted in the top 8.  (This is also a must-handcuff for me, for several reasons, but if McKinnon goes down, I will sure as Hell want Breida on my roster) I will try and "lock up this backfield" if at all possible.

Joe Mixon - This could easily go either way, but all preseason he has been the one I am focused on trying to get. I get all the "Bengals sucked last year" cries, but I think the fantasy community is largely overlooking at how highly this guy was touted coming out of college.  I think this is yet another chance to get a very high floor of a workload, but again, this is a definite handcuff for me. If I do get Mixon, I will definitely try and get Gio Bernard. Another "lock up the backfield" scenario for me.   NOTE - Its unlikely you will get McKinnon AND Mixon with where they are being drafted.

Ezekiel Elliott - This reeks of a massive workload.  Everyone says "they are going to have the box stacked routinely", but are you going to tell me they weren't actively trying to stop the EZE running in the past? Sure he can be a bit of a knucklehead , but it wouldn't surprise me if he gets more touches than ANY running back. Sign me up.    If I get #1 overall in any of my leagues, this will be a real question I have to consider....as I may just take him.

Doug Baldwin -  This is a bit of a cheat.   Word has come out he is having knee issues, and if that turns out to actually be a concern, then all bets are off here.  But if he looks good to go at the end of the preseason, I will be grabbing him in every league I can. He has all the facets of a "monster fantasy season" in the making....... Elite QB, poor defense, questionable WR play around him.   (Is Lockett really healthy, and as far as thats concerned, is Jaron Brown also???) If he stays healthy, and thats a massive IF ,I think Baldwin is damn near a lock for top 8-10 WR production. 

 Derrick Henry -   After Dion Lewis was signed, at first I didn't want any part of this backfield.  But then I remembered how Lewis has never been really healthy and very fantasy productive until late last season.  Henry is the last one on my list, that when he gets drafted just in front of me, I get a bit of a sinking feeling.   People forget Henry is not a bad pass catcher.  Is he a pass specialist like Lewis?  I wouldn't say that, but he certainly is capable. I don't think he will get a massive amount of passes since Lewis has come to town, but I think he should get more than the 17 targets he had last year.

 Sort of an honorable mention - I am also targeting Larry Fitzgerald as well, but the word is out, and he has been going earlier and earlier. It seems in the drafts I have been in the last few days, he has been slipping off the board earlier and earlier.

 Who all are you choosing as your "must haves" this season in your redrafts...??

TZM
In standard leagues, I couldn’t agree more on Henry. A lot of the “experts” will eat their words when he puts together a top 10 season 

 

DawnBTVS

Footballguy
QB Tom Brady: Virtually a lock for 4,300+ and 30+ TD even with his age. Still has enough weapons around him to be a force and could be had lower than in past years due to the hype around others like DeShaun Watson. The QB version of Larry Fitzgerald in that you pretty much know what you're getting but he's not as "sexy" as the more mobile counterparts ala Rodgers or Cam.

RB Melvin Gordon: Has quietly put up 997 & 1,105 rushing the past 2 years with 18 TD while running behind pretty bad run blocking lines. Also bumped up from 41 catches to 58 last year and I see little reason why he shouldn't continue to be a great RB "value" pick in relation to the Gurley/Johnson/Bell types.

RB Kenyan Drake: Put up 488 yards (4.88 YPC) with 2 TD and 17 catches over the final 5 games after Ajayi was dealt. Was kind of buried coming out of Alabama but flashed legit talent and I think he has a chance to challenge 1,000 yards and 40-50 catches. Frank Gore's been trending downward in YPC the past 3 years and I think the backfield is Drake's to lose. A bit more of a boom/bust but has Clinton Portis-level potential IMO.

WR Adam Thielen: Actually exploded last year with a lower catch rate (75% down to 64.1%) yet still averaged 14.0 YPR. Legitimate in FF now and has potential to put up Top 5 numbers if the TDs can fall into place.

WR Amari Cooper: Kind of under the radar after a very down season but still averaged 14.2 YPR and had a career high 7 TD. The #1 on an offense that can throw the ball and Gruden has proven he can mold 1,000 WRs in his sleep even on mediocre teams.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I'll approach this topic as guys I'm higher on than most and would likely take above their ADP level:

Derrius Guice: 2nd best rookie RB that steps into an ideal situation, Washington has a top o-line and will run a more conservative offense under Alex Smith. While Chris Thompson caps his ppr upside to some extent, Thompson is better in a limited role since he's not very durable and Guice should still catch at least 32 passes in his role. Perrine and Kelley are complete garbage.

Jamison Crowder: No I am not a Skins fan but as mentioned Crowder fits perfectly into an Alex Smith offense. The kid out of Duke has impressed during his first two seasons and should be the most targeted WR in Washington.

Corey Clement: I have him projected to outscore Jay Ajayi in ppr leagues this season. Clement was an UDFA who earned a role last season and should start the year as the team's RB2 in it's RBBC. With Sproles being 35+ his role on offense should be limited. Clement should be the main third down back and he was used heavily in he red-zone last season.

Matthew Stafford: Perpetually undervalued....will he win you your league? No, but he's a virtual lock to be a top 10 QB so you can let others take QBs in the first 10 rounds while you load up at RB and WR and grab Stafford after Round 10 and not be worse for the wear. The Lions put the ball in the air a ton and have some nice weapons for Stafford.

Sony Michel; Many are scared off by the unpredictability of the Pats RB history - but the bottom line is Belichick has never shied away from featuring star players in his offenses and Michel is the most talented back on their roster and his first round draft status tells us Billy feels the same way. He should/could take over the Dion Lewis role from the second half of last season and has the upside for more. People seem to think he's a scat-back third down back type for some reason but at 215 pounds he's actually bigger than Rex Burkhead so GL carries could be in order for Michel.

 
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Ilov80s

Footballguy
If we are saying "must haves" than it has to be super late round guys because early on it is going to depend on how the draft falls. I like Jordan Howard this year but he isn't a must have and I won't reach for him. 

- Kenneth Dixon: All that stands in his way from a potential lead back role is Alex Collins. Collins was a 5th round pick, not much of an athlete, cut by the Seahawks, it took injuries to Dixon and Woodhead for Collins to get active. He did have a nice season after outplaying Terrence West, Buck Allen and Jeramy Langford (that doesn't say much). I think the jury is still out on whether Collins is anything more than a C+. I don't think he has a super firm grip on the job and so I like the chance to cost ratio that Dixon takes that job away. 

- Quncy Enunwa: Robby Anderson is a big play downfield receiver so even if he doesn't get suspended, Enunwa can work over the middle as a possession receiver. Enunwa is big and athletic. He could be a nice safety blanket for a rookie QB.Then ofcourse there is the chance Anderson gets suspended and Enunwa could see a ton of targets.

- John Ross: It is rare for a guy to go from top 10 pick in the NFL to a guy with an ADP in the 260s the next year. Now his year last year definitely looks bad: injury, no targets, 1 carry and he lost a fumble on it. However, we know Marvin Lewis doesn't typically let rookies do much. With a full and healthy offseason, it is very likely John Ross sees a real role on this team. The Bengals are almost sure to see some positive regression. As bad as they were last year, I think most would say the team has enough offensive talent to perform around an average level. I will gladly spend my last pick on the fastest guy in the history of the NFL and if I see after a week or two that he isn't part of the offensive gameplan again, then it is no sweat to cut bait. If he hits though, it could be prime Desean Jackson type stats.

- Jordan Wilkins: Pretty simple formula here. 16th round ADP + Andrew Luck offense + open hole at RB+ getting some 1st team reps in camp= Draft this guy every time. 

- Jamison Crowder: Post hype sleeper alert. Last year many had Crowder pegged as a big breakout. I don't know what happened but his 1st half of the 2017 season was just awful. However, his 2nd half was really nice: 38 receptions, 517 yards and 3 TDs. That is a season long pace of 76/1034/6 which would have delivered on the preseason hype and for standard or ppr would have made him a solid WR2. For a guy getting drafted in most leagues as a WR4, I like the bet on him being more like the last 8 games than the first. 

 
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Snorkelson

Footballguy
Matthew Stafford: Perpetually undervalued....will he win you your league? No, but he's a virtual lock to be a top 10 QB so you can let others take QBs in the first 10 rounds while you load up at RB and WR and grab Stafford after Round 10 and not be worse for the wear. The Lions put the ball in the air a ton and have some nice weapons for Stafford.
“QB after rd 10” May be the better way to put it. Whether it’s stafford, Matt Ryan, Cousins, dak, mariota, rivers, someone is available. Even if you wait longer and get a couple of bortles, Smith, Eli, mahomes, Tyrod, keenum, you probably can cobble together a unit. There isn’t a big difference between qb5 and qb 22 until injuries happen. I think the guys drafting cam, Ben, jimmy,  won’t have the point difference at the end of the year. Well, Ben at home is huge, but you need a backup when he’s on the road. 

 

Payne

Footballguy
Crowder, Crowder, Crowder.........

Garcon

Crowell seems good value

Rivers a steal as always

Crabtree = S Smith 2.0 in Baltimore?

Outside of concussion concerns, I think sky is the limit with D Adams in Green Bay

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
“QB after rd 10” May be the better way to put it. Whether it’s stafford, Matt Ryan, Cousins, dak, mariota, rivers, someone is available. Even if you wait longer and get a couple of bortles, Smith, Eli, mahomes, Tyrod, keenum, you probably can cobble together a unit. There isn’t a big difference between qb5 and qb 22 until injuries happen. I think the guys drafting cam, Ben, jimmy,  won’t have the point difference at the end of the year. Well, Ben at home is huge, but you need a backup when he’s on the road. 
Yes but Stafford happens to be my favorite late round QB because I think he is the safest while still having potential top 5 upside.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
RB Melvin Gordon: Has quietly put up 997 & 1,105 rushing the past 2 years with 18 TD while running behind pretty bad run blocking lines. Also bumped up from 41 catches to 58 last year and I see little reason why he shouldn't continue to be a great RB "value" pick in relation to the Gurley/Johnson/Bell types.
I can't say anyone with a 1st round ADP is a must have, but he will be my most invested in player for best ball. He should be going right after the big 5 but there is just a ton of disrespect for him even though he is one of only a couple players to be a true workhorse back in the NFL. Over the last 2 seasons, only 4 RBs have been on the field for 70% or more of the team's offensive snaps. Those players are: Gurley, Bell, Zeke and Melvin Gordon. 

 
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steelers1080

Footballguy
  1. Mike Evans - I'm not sure I like Jameis Winston as a QB, but I love Evans as a WR. He's yo-yo'd so far in his career between being a fantasy monster, and being a solid WR. Well, this is the Up year in the cycle (Not actual reason). A real reason to be positive about his outlook is that the Bucs might finally have other players that can take a little pressure off. They seem to like RoJo, and if he is a solid RB, then defenses will have to plan for him at least a little. OJ Howard is entering year 2, and should be a monster in the middle of the field. Mike Evans current ADP is the end of Round 2, but I've been able to get him in the middle of round 3, and I think he's a steal at that point.
  2. Aaron Rodgers* - This is for 1 specific league I play in. It's an 8-team league with old friends. Having a stud QB is important, because you need to have stars at each position to have a chance to win. Also, everyone is using the "draft a QB late" mantra, so he falls to the pick 40 range, and he's the safe pick there. There are other players I love at that point, but getting the best QB in the league as your 6th player isn't a bad deal. Especially with Watson going 3 picks later.
  3. Derrius Guice - I've been getting him in the 4th round, around pick 42 - 46. I view him as just a cut below Fournette, on a ranking probably something like 94/100 vs 90/100. But, Fournette went to a team with a trash QB, and a terrible O-line. He obviously had a great year, and I don't see any reason why Guice can't match it. He's extremely talented, has untapped potential in the passing game, has much higher draft capital than the other RBs, and has a much better O-line and QB. A lot of people are scared that he won't get any touches on 3rd down because of Chris Thompson, and yes, the games that Thompson plays he'll be the 3rd down back, but he always gets hurt. Guice has a solid chance of being a top 12 RB, and he's currently going around RB 19 - 22.
  4. Corey Davis - This pick is all heart. I really liked him coming out of school last year, though he was overdrafted, and because the Titans were devoid of WR talent, I thought he would destroy. Then he got hurt, a couple times. His chemistry with Mariota was weak, and the play calling was boring. That shouldn't be the case this year. They started to click near the end of last season, at least for 1 game, and had 5 receptions for 63 yards and 2 TDs against New England. His new OC likes to air it out, and the hope is that he'll be the major recipient of increased pass attempts.
  5. Chris Carson - Going in the 12th round, RB 46. It could be all lies, but the word out of camp is that they love him. I know they just spent a 1st on a running back, but you never know. It's a later pick that could potentially pay off huge dividends. 
  6. Honorable Mention - Jordy Nelson - He's old, but Jon Gruden loves old players. He's the new Crabtree, but he's being drafted after pick 100. The yardage might not be there, but he's going to get 8+ TDs if he stays healthy, and he will have value. Martavis is a will-he won't-he when it comes to suspensions, but Carr is already praising Nelson big time in camp.
 

Snorkelson

Footballguy
Yes but Stafford happens to be my favorite late round QB because I think he is the safest while still having potential top 5 upside.
We’re both lions fans, I like Stafford too. But I’m the event that someone snipes him, there is plenty of talent falling. Recently drafted Matt Ryan in rd 11.02, Stafford went 8.12. 

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
We’re both lions fans, I like Stafford too. But I’m the event that someone snipes him, there is plenty of talent falling. Recently drafted Matt Ryan in rd 11.02, Stafford went 8.12. 
I'm not a Lions fan - but agree...Stafford is my target in say Round 11 but if some one else grabs him before me I'll be fine with guys like Mahomes, Goff, Rivers or some combination of Eli, Dak and Smith.

 

Raback

Footballguy
Corey Clement - I think he takes over the starting job at some point this season and is a potential league winner.  Really like this talent and the Philly offense is going to score a lot of points. 

Emmanuel Sanders - His skill set aligns perfectly with Keenum.  I’m expecting 80+ receptions for a guy you can get in the 6th round. 

Kyle Rudolph - Vikings offense is going to score a lot of points and Rudolph will be a big beneficiary.  I see him somewhere in the range of 70/700/8 this season.  TE is really thin to me this year as well so I’ll reach a round for Rudolph.  

Nick Chubb - I see this being similar to Dalvin Cook last year, where everyone was worried about all the competition and then Chubb just steals the job way earlier than most are anticipating.  He’ll be starting by midseason at the latest and be a low end RB1/high end RB2 the rest of the way.  

Nyheim Hines - I think he carves out a role similar to Cohen last season.  Indy is going to be behind and throwing the ball a lot and he can be a very nice flex play or spot starter at RB. 

 

JohnnyU

Footballguy
Nyheim Hines - I think he carves out a role similar to Cohen last season.  Indy is going to be behind and throwing the ball a lot and he can be a very nice flex play or spot starter at RB. 
I agree Hines will have a role, but I don't believe the Colts are going to be behind a lot.  Last year without Luck;

The 2017 Colts may have finished 4-12, but in their 16-game season, the Colts trailed at halftime in only 6 games.  They held halftime leads in 9 games.  Yet they went 2-7 in games they led at halftime.

The 2017 Colts are the ONLY team in the last 27 years to lose at least 7 games which they led at halftime.

Their leads didn’t mysteriously evaporate in the 3rd quarter, however.  The Colts led through three quarters in 9 games.

The 2017 Colts are the ONLY team in the last 20 years to hold a lead entering the 4th quarter in at least 9 games, but win no more than 4 games.

 
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Cobbler1

Footballguy
Corey Clement: I have him projected to outscore Jay Ajayi in ppr leagues this season. Clement was an UDFA who earned a role last season and should start the year as the team's RB2 in it's RBBC. With Sproles being 35+ his role on offense should be limited. Clement should be the main third down back and he was used heavily in the red-zone last year.
 His 13 red zone carries last year were the 53rd most red zone carries amongst rbs. He added 2 recs.

 

gianmarco

Footballguy
I'm surprised there's a name missing on all of these lists so far (actually 2 if you see below).

When I'm looking for "must have" guys, they have to fit certain criteria for me or else they aren't "must haves".  Those criteria could include any of the following:

--Elite production, especially relative to others at the same position

--Significant value based on where they are being drafted compared to where I think they belong.  If I feel I can get a player 2 rounds later than the price I'd be willing to pay, then he needs to be on my team if I can get him at that lower price.

--Proven production.  Very rarely do unproven players make it on a "must have" list of mine unless there's something really special going on (incoming rookie like Barkley or a trade to a new team that almost guarantees production).

--A guy I never want to face in a H2H fantasy matchup.

There's a guy, for me, that fits all of these criteria:

Rob Gronkowski. 

He's always been a must-have for me.  But this year, in particular, he seems to be going later than usual.  Maybe it's his age, maybe it's Brady's age, or maybe it's because he's always been somewhat undervalued, but this is probably the cheapest I've seen him in years. 

Honorable mention for the same reasons:  Julio Jones.  Last year he had 1400 yds but only 3 TDs.  Those 2 things don't go together.  But the anomaly isn't the 1400 yards since he's had 1400+ yards for four straight seasons (along with 80+ catches).  So while he's not a likely double digit TD guy given his history, he's still far more likely to hit 6-8 TDs along with 1400 yards and yet he's going lower than he ever has before.  And who wants to face Julio on MNF even if you're up by 20 pts?

I'm not saying he should be on everyone's list because I know there are people that don't like these guys, but the fact neither has been listed on any list at this point is surprising to me.

 

Cobbler1

Footballguy
Gronk- I always feel like what he gives at the TE position is perpetually underrated. You can find RBs off the wire that can approximate rb2 stats. You can’t find a Gronk off the wire. I was fortunate enough to draw the 1 and 2 in my 2 10 team redrafts. I’ll be looking for Gronk in the 2nd in those leagues. I got 4 in a 12 teamer where Kamara and Thomas will be kept so my 2nd round pick is more like 23. Got the 1 in another 12 teamer I’ll be hoping for Gronk in both those. Enough about me though!

Ajayi- I like Clement. Really I do. But I think his role and performance are a bit overstated. I’ve gone into more detail in the Ajayi thread but the meat and potatoes is I expect the majority of early down carries to be his as well as most of the goal line work as he assumes the more power back role. 

Corey Davis- Loved his talent coming out. I’m optimistic that the new coaching staff will maximize his abilities and he’ll be healthy enough to showcase what he has. There’s plenty of targets for grabs there and I think they’d like to pepper him with them.

Rex Burkhead- We really think Bill is gonna trust a rookie with fumbling issues at the goal line? 

Anthony Miller- Love his talent. There’s concern that he may struggle to get the necessary targets out of the gate as there’s other mouths to feed there. Betting on talent here.

 

FGITLOTR

Footballguy
Corey Clement - I think he takes over the starting job at some point this season and is a potential league winner.  Really like this talent and the Philly offense is going to score a lot of points. 

Emmanuel Sanders - His skill set aligns perfectly with Keenum.  I’m expecting 80+ receptions for a guy you can get in the 6th round. 

Kyle Rudolph - Vikings offense is going to score a lot of points and Rudolph will be a big beneficiary.  I see him somewhere in the range of 70/700/8 this season.  TE is really thin to me this year as well so I’ll reach a round for Rudolph.  

Nick Chubb - I see this being similar to Dalvin Cook last year, where everyone was worried about all the competition and then Chubb just steals the job way earlier than most are anticipating.  He’ll be starting by midseason at the latest and be a low end RB1/high end RB2 the rest of the way.  

Nyheim Hines - I think he carves out a role similar to Cohen last season.  Indy is going to be behind and throwing the ball a lot and he can be a very nice flex play or spot starter at RB. 
All day on Emmanuel...

 

Run It Up

Footballguy
Chris Hogan at his ADP

Martavis Bryant at his ADP

Corey Celement at his ADP

Will Fuller

Christian Mccaffrey

 

abbottjamesr

Footballguy
Most of mine have been mentioned but I'll add a couple that haven't

Gronk -  Edelman out for the first few games makes this even better. 

Chubb - Todd Haley is going to do for Chubb what he did for JC and Bell.

M. Jones - This is mostly on value, he was a top 10 guy last year and nothing has changed.

R. Woods - Same as Jones.  

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
Corey Clement: I have him projected to outscore Jay Ajayi in ppr leagues this season. Clement was an UDFA who earned a role last season and should start the year as the team's RB2 in it's RBBC. With Sproles being 35+ his role on offense should be limited. Clement should be the main third down back and he was used heavily in he red-zone last season.
Yes, its early in training camp but the buzz about his use in RZ and goal line goes back to OTAs as well.  This is the only blurb I've seen from today's practice but CC running with 1st team in goal line drills.

Bob Grotz@BobGrotz

Clement. Ertz score as first team offense with Foles goes 2- for-4 in 11 on 11 goal line drill with tackling. Second team offense was 0-for-4. #eagles

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
I'm surprised there's a name missing on all of these lists so far (actually 2 if you see below).

When I'm looking for "must have" guys, they have to fit certain criteria for me or else they aren't "must haves".  Those criteria could include any of the following:

--Elite production, especially relative to others at the same position

--Significant value based on where they are being drafted compared to where I think they belong.  If I feel I can get a player 2 rounds later than the price I'd be willing to pay, then he needs to be on my team if I can get him at that lower price.

--Proven production.  Very rarely do unproven players make it on a "must have" list of mine unless there's something really special going on (incoming rookie like Barkley or a trade to a new team that almost guarantees production).

--A guy I never want to face in a H2H fantasy matchup.

There's a guy, for me, that fits all of these criteria:

Rob Gronkowski. 

He's always been a must-have for me.  But this year, in particular, he seems to be going later than usual.  Maybe it's his age, maybe it's Brady's age, or maybe it's because he's always been somewhat undervalued, but this is probably the cheapest I've seen him in years. 
His ADP is 2.11 which means no matter where you pick in Round 2 you have to take him there since it's unlikely he falls to Round 3. I'm not saying he's not worth it but he's still not that cheap.

 

Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
 His 13 red zone carries last year were the 53rd most red zone carries amongst rbs. He added 2 recs.
Maybe I'm wrong but compared to the other Eagle RBs he seemed to be in there more at the GL (and they had Blount last year) - and there's a lot of talk that he's been the main guy lining up there in OTAs and camp for GL packages.

 

Cobbler1

Footballguy
Maybe I'm wrong but compared to the other Eagle RBs he seemed to be in there more at the GL (and they had Blount last year) - and there's a lot of talk that he's been the main guy lining up there in OTAs and camp for GL packages.
There’s been talk that he’s received touches there with the first team which is entirely unsurprising since everyone agrees this will be some sort of a committee on offense. There haven’t been reports of him being the main guy at the goal line or in the red zone drills. The report from yesterday was that he received 3-5 first team touches. Meanwhile Ajayi and Sproles saw the bulk of the first team reps including goal line. 

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Eagles RB situation is a greasefire...no thanks.  Clement is decent value in PPRs and that's about it.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
There’s been talk that he’s received touches there with the first team which is entirely unsurprising since everyone agrees this will be some sort of a committee on offense. There haven’t been reports of him being the main guy at the goal line or in the red zone drills. The report from yesterday was that he received 3-5 first team touches. Meanwhile Ajayi and Sproles saw the bulk of the first team reps including goal line. 
Link? I saw a report that JA and Sproles got the bulk of 1st team carries yesterday, but Sproles was the only I saw mentioned as getting the GL work.  So far I've seen Sproles and CC as getting 1st team GL work, but no mention of JA.

Ajayi's workload

Ajayi had the most snaps with the Eagles first-team offense — featuring Nick Foles at quarterback — though Sproles wasn't far behind. He didn't touch the ball particularly much, though, as it was a pass-heavy day. He did record a catch early on.

Regardless of carries or catches, Ajayi has been pinpointed as one of the players who returned this summer in great shape, and it shows. He could be poised for a big campaign in his first full season with the Eagles. 

"Right now I’m just preparing myself to be the guy, be featured and if that’s how it goes, I’m ready for it," Ajayi said. "I’m excited to be back in that role. I’m just preparing myself again to have a great year. I’m working really hard this offseason and getting myself ready to have a great season."

Darren Sproles

After Sproles was held out of Tuesday's 11-on-11s for rest, he received a heavy workload on Wednesday, nearly matching Ajayi in first-team snaps, getting some looks on the goal line offense and scoring a short touchdown on an option run from Foles. 

He also got some reps as a kick returner and punt returner.

Clearly, he's going to continue to play a big role with this team. 

 
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Dr. Octopus

Footballguy
There's an argument to be made for him still being a top 5 pick.y
From a VBD perspective I can agree - I go back and forth on it. I actually drafted him at 1.10 one season and in the second round another time. I usually don't love my line-up when that happens as I feel I'm playing catch up at RB and WR.

Based on my VBD projections if he's there for me at 2.09 I should strongly consider it once again. If I pass I will likely just not take a TE until the later rounds as I only see 3 that really make any difference at all.

 

Cobbler1

Footballguy
Link? I saw a report that JA and Sproles got the bulk of 1st team carries yesterday, but Sproles was the only I saw mentioned as getting the GL work.  So far I've seen Sproles and CC as getting 1st team GL work, but no mention of JA.

Ajayi's workload

Ajayi had the most snaps with the Eagles first-team offense — featuring Nick Foles at quarterback — though Sproles wasn't far behind. He didn't touch the ball particularly much, though, as it was a pass-heavy day. He did record a catch early on.

Regardless of carries or catches, Ajayi has been pinpointed as one of the players who returned this summer in great shape, and it shows. He could be poised for a big campaign in his first full season with the Eagles. 

"Right now I’m just preparing myself to be the guy, be featured and if that’s how it goes, I’m ready for it," Ajayi said. "I’m excited to be back in that role. I’m just preparing myself again to have a great year. I’m working really hard this offseason and getting myself ready to have a great season."

Darren Sproles

After Sproles was held out of Tuesday's 11-on-11s for rest, he received a heavy workload on Wednesday, nearly matching Ajayi in first-team snaps, getting some looks on the goal line offense and scoring a short touchdown on an option run from Foles. 

He also got some reps as a kick returner and punt returner.

Clearly, he's going to continue to play a big role with this team. 
That’s the source. Clement got 3-5 touches total. Sproles got some first goal line. Who do you think got the rest of the goal line work?

 

Brisco54

Footballguy
I hate focusing on a given player or players during a draft but instead look at groupings of players as must haves.

For example, there is a significant drop off after the top tier of TEs, so

1) I "must have" a tier 1 TE.

I think there is much more volatility in the RB ranks than the WR ranks so

2) I "must have" four RBs that are legitimate weekly fantasy starters.

On WRs, I trust the top rankings more, so 

3) I "must have" a top ten WR

On QBs, I think everyone is getting a little too excited about the young QBs... I would prefer to wait so therefore 

4) I "must have" two entrenched veteran starting QB's

Finally, because of the prevalence of RBBC and the volatility of the RB position, I want lottery tickets at this position and hope one of them is the next Kamara so

5)  I "must have" the majority of my bench dedicated to the RB position.  (The depth of the WR position this year tells me that there will be fine WR on the waiver wire all year)

Given these "must haves" if I draft early I will probably get the following in a 15 round draft:

1.  Top 5 RB

2.  Gronk (if there) or best WR available.

3.  Kelce/Best remaining WR (depending on what I got in the second... I hate that Henry is gone... I think of him as top tier with these two and could have got him in the 5th.)

4.  RB

5.  RB

6.  RB

7.  Matt Ryan

8.  WR

9.  WR

10.  Andy Dalton (great QB2 for current APR)

11.  WR

12.  RB

13.  TE

14.  K

15.  DEF

If I draft late it would be

1.  WR

2.  Gronk

3.  RB

4.  RB

5.  RB

6.  RB

and the rest the same as above.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
That’s the source. Clement got 3-5 touches total. Sproles got some first goal line. Who do you think got the rest of the goal line work?
You said Ajayi and Sproles got the bulk of the goal line work.  I have not seen Ajayi's name mentioned yet with any GL work - OTAs or TC.  I'll certainly pass it along if I find any.  Just posting what I see/hear.

 

Chaka

Footballguy
There's an argument to be made for him still being a top 5 pick.
Not a very good one anymore IMO.

His last 16 game season was 2011.  26 missed games since.  11 TDs in his last 20 games.  He had 23 TDs in the 30 games prior but 2014-2015 is a lifetime ago in the NFL.

Still the best TE out there without question but he has been declining and comes with more risk every season as he and Brady get older.  The offensive line also appears to be a little bit worse than last year which isn't good for either Gronk or Brady.

 
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Brisco54

Footballguy
Given these "must haves" if I draft early I will probably get the following in a 15 round draft:

1.  Top 5 RB

2.  Gronk (if there) or best WR available.

3.  Kelce/Best remaining WR (depending on what I got in the second... I hate that Henry is gone... I think of him as top tier with these two and could have got him in the 5th.)

4.  RB

5.  RB

6.  RB

7.  Matt Ryan
Just looked and saw that Ryan's ADP has dropped to the tenth round so move him back a couple of slots in the draft plan and move the other positions up.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
That’s the source. Clement got 3-5 touches total. Sproles got some first goal line. Who do you think got the rest of the goal line work?
Apparently Clement got some.  From yesterday's practice notes:

• I liked what I saw from Nate Sudfeld. I think he showed real nice touch and accuracy in the red zone. He completed three different fade passes: one to Corey Clement, one to Nelson Agholor, and one to Greg Ward Jr. All right on the money. Sudfeld fired a laser through traffic to a diving Billy Brown. The third-year quarterback then followed that up with a strike to Davis along the back of the end zone.

There's no mention of Ajayi in the practice notes on a day where they apparently did a lot of RZ work.

 
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Cobbler1

Footballguy
Apparently Clement got some.  From yesterday's practice notes:

• I liked what I saw from Nate Sudfeld. I think he showed real nice touch and accuracy in the red zone. He completed three different fade passes: one to Corey Clement, one to Nelson Agholor, and one to Greg Ward Jr. All right on the money. Sudfeld fired a laser through traffic to a diving Billy Brown. The third-year quarterback then followed that up with a strike to Davis along the back of the end zone.
That’s the second team work. Sproles and Ajayi worked with the first team and Sproles got some of the first team goal line. My extrapolation is that the other portion of the goal line work went to Ajayi since Clement saw barely any first team work. If Sproles got all the first team goal line work or if Clement came in for only first team goal line work I’d expect that would have been noted.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
That’s the second team work. Sproles and Ajayi worked with the first team and Sproles got some of the first team goal line. My extrapolation is that the other portion of the goal line work went to Ajayi since Clement saw barely any first team work. If Sproles got all the first team goal line work or if Clement came in for only first team goal line work I’d expect that would have been noted.
Sorry, I don't see Ajayi mentioned and Agholor is certainly not 2nd team.

 

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