I'll give this new advice seeking thread a try. I'm new to dynasty this year and we just completed our veteran draft. Our rookie draft will take place in mid August and I have the 1.07 and 1.09 picks. There's an owner at 1.06 who is looking to possibly trade back and another owner that has 1.05, 1.10 and 1.11 and looking to trade up. I'm contemplating both of these scenarios depending on costs (ie. move up from 1.09 to 1.06 or move back from 1.07 to 1.10&1.11).
My questions are as follows:
1. What's the best way (sites, etc) to evaluate the value of these picks to each other or also compared to vetaren players?
2. Is it typically better to look at making these trades now or waiting until just before the draft? Obviously if I wait until August then we (myself and the other owners) all get a better sense of how players will shake out but would it be better value to shop now or later in terms of value?
12 owners. Start 1RB, 2WR, 1TE plus 3 flex (max 2 per position). RB's get .25 per touch (carry or reception), WR's get 1.0ppr, TE's get 1.5ppr.
For me I try and make a ranking of rookie players before thinking about dealing rookie picks. This year I traded up from 7 to 5 because I already had 4 and 6 and saw a difference in tier between the 6th player and 7th player. My recommendation would be to rank rookies in tiers at RB, WR, and TE. Then compare those tiers to your team. Make the tiers independently if you can. In a dynasty league, skill typically wins out, so a better player on a bad team usually has a better value than a mediocre player in a good position. An example of this could be Fat Rob on the Skins. He was the lead back for a team that likes to run and was putting up solid numbers. Then they drafted a similar player in Perine. Kelly could win out, but his stock is definitely hurt. Team situations can change any given year, but a player's skill will usually remain.
As for comparing rookies to vets, many people have differing opinions on this. I love rookies, but I have been pretty good at picking them, such as getting David Johnson and Allen Robinson in the 2nd rounds of rookie drafts. Other people in my league have picked all busts, so there's a lot of chance involved with rookies. Your best bet when just starting out is to look at dynasty rankings as a starting point. See where rookies are ranked against the vets and then apply your own opinion. For example, if Fournette is ranked as the 24th best Dynasty player, but you think he'll be better than the 3 players ranked above him, feel free to move him up. Just keep in mind that 0 rookies have proven they can cut it in the NFL.
As to when to make trades, that depends. It's not what you want to hear, but it's true. If you wait to trade until closer to August you'll have a much better idea about how a rookie will do and what his standing is with the team, so there's less risk involved. But, you could also end up paying more for a player or pick than initially thought. Also, a player could work a trade out with another player, such as moving from 11 to 6 and leap frogging your picks. I'd say that trading up usually gets more expensive the closer the rookie draft gets, because people will do more research and fall more in love with players. So if you're looking to trade up, now might be a good time, and if you're looking to trade back it might be better to wait.
If I was you I'd either trade up from 7 to 6 if you can do it cheap, or just stand pat. If you can get a 2018 1st to move back from 7 to 10, I'd do that as well, but I don't think they'd accept that. I view the top 6 players as a cut above, that's why I'd try to get to 6. At 7 and 9 there will be some great RB options, some great TE options, and some good WR options, for a 1st year rookie draft I'd stay put.
