Your Guess - How Long Will CLE WR Josh Gordon Be Suspended For? (1 Viewer)

[Joe Bryant]

One of the hot topics this spring has been the availability of Browns WR Josh Gordon this year.

He's reportedly facing what could be a season long suspension.

Other sources think it won't be that long.

We've spent 51 pages on the board so far in this thread speculating back and forth.

And to be sure, it's speculation. Nobody knows for sure right now.

But I'm interested in what you guys think. So let's hear it.

J

 

[Heatman]

Hate to say it but he'll be out a year. Given his history and then getting pulled over for speeding with marijuana in the car while his suspension is under appeal. I just don't see any other option at this point and I own him in three leagues.

 

[Soulfly3]

Great thread, Joe.

We all know where I stand.

 

[False Start]

Hate to say it but he'll be out a year. Given his history and then getting pulled over for speeding with marijuana in the car while his suspension is under appeal. I just don't see any other option at this point and I own him in three leagues.

Have to agree.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I think this is a perfect "expectations vs. expected value" situation. My expectation (i.e. the single outcome that I think is most likely) would be that Gordon gets suspended indefinitely with an opportunity for reinstatement a year from now (note: an opportunity, not a certainty). If this were a roulette table and I was placing chips down, I'd put them down on "16+ games".

At the same time, the expected value of Gordon's suspension (i.e. all possible outcomes weighted by their likelihood) would be be more like 13.5 games. That's counting this season alone- if I were also factoring in the chances that he fails to get reinstated after the season is over, that number would be higher, but that would include missed games from the 2015 season. To get to that number, I'd guess that there's maybe a 75% chance that Gordon gets the full season, a 15% chance that he gets 6-8 games, and a 10% chance he gets 0-4 games. If you're looking to some sort of deeper reasoning behind those percentages, you can save yourself some time, because they're just wild and wholly unsubstantiated guesses that I've pulled from my hindquarters. Basically, I think there's a very good chance he gets the hammer, a very small chance he beats the rap and gets a slap on the wrist, and a moderately small chance he gets somewhere in between. Average all those possibilities together and we're looking at an EV just north of 13 missed games for this season.

 

[Soulfly3]

So, Ill have Gordon back for fantasy playoff time, Adam?

Sick!

 

[Adam Harstad]

So, Ill have Gordon back for fantasy playoff time, Adam?

Sick!

If I'm guessing, then I'd say you've got about a 25% chance of it.

 

[JaxBill]

I think this is a perfect "expectations vs. expected value" situation. My expectation (i.e. the single outcome that I think is most likely) would be that Gordon gets suspended indefinitely with an opportunity for reinstatement a year from now (note: an opportunity, not a certainty). If this were a roulette table and I was placing chips down, I'd put them down on "16+ games".

This. I think he's facing the dreaded Blackmon suspended indefinitely punishment.

 

[Soulfly3]

So, Ill have Gordon back for fantasy playoff time, Adam?

Sick!

If I'm guessing, then I'd say you've got about a 25% chance of it.

better than the 0% Ive been getting from folks.

Keep on rockin' my friend.

 

[Anarchy99]

Other.

I believe he will be suspended for at least the entire season. I think the substance abuse rules for multiple offenders state that a player would be suspended indefinitely and would be eligible to ask for reinstatement after a year is up. But the player has to get reinstated, so there is a chance it could last more than a year. And I believe it is a calendar year, not 16 regular season games (ie, would have to miss all regular season and playoff games if the Browns qualified for the post season). But I haven't looked at the revised CBA after the last go round, so I don't know if the language and requirements have changed.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

One of the hot topics this spring has been the availability of Browns WR Josh Gordon this year.

He's reportedly facing what could be a season long suspension.

Other sources think it won't be that long.

We've spent 51 pages on the board so far in this thread speculating back and forth.

And to be sure, it's speculation. Nobody knows for sure right now.

But I'm interested in what you guys think. So let's hear it.

J

I just want to say I'm glad you started a new thread for this. There's a whole lot of in that Gordon thread now.

 

[Joe Bryant]

One of the hot topics this spring has been the availability of Browns WR Josh Gordon this year.

He's reportedly facing what could be a season long suspension.

Other sources think it won't be that long.

We've spent 51 pages on the board so far in this thread speculating back and forth.

And to be sure, it's speculation. Nobody knows for sure right now.

But I'm interested in what you guys think. So let's hear it.

J

I just want to say I'm glad you started a new thread for this. There's a whole lot of in that Gordon thread now.

J

 

[Dragon1952]

I'm going with 6-8 games. I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension.

 

[False Start]

I'm going with 6-8 games. I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension.

Is the fact that weed was found in the car that he was driving when his suspension was on appeal going to help or hurt him? I think it hurts and any shot of a short suspension went out the window.

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm going with 6-8 games. I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension.

Daryl Washington just got suspended for the season for a similar marijuana incident. I doubt the NFL can pick favorites and have drastically different outcomes for similar infractions.

 

[Adam Harstad]

I'm going with 6-8 games. I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension.

Is the fact that weed was found in the car that he was driving when his suspension was on appeal going to help or hurt him? I think it hurts and any shot of a short suspension went out the window.

I can't say whether it went out the window without knowing more facts about what triggered the suspension in the first place, but I will say that I think Gordon's name surfacing in yet another high-profile, league-embarrassing news story is going to lessen any inclination towards clemency that Goodell might have once possessed. To me, it's now just a question of the facts of the case and whether Goodell is in a position where his inclinations have any impact on the sentencing.

 

[False Start]

39 for season long and the next highest is 7.

 

[cstu]

Other.

I believe he will be suspended for at least the entire season. I think the substance abuse rules for multiple offenders state that a player would be suspended indefinitely and would be eligible to ask for reinstatement after a year is up. But the player has to get reinstated, so there is a chance it could last more than a year. And I believe it is a calendar year, not 16 regular season games (ie, would have to miss all regular season and playoff games if the Browns qualified for the post season). But I haven't looked at the revised CBA after the last go round, so I don't know if the language and requirements have changed.

Probably true but the league would need a reason (failed/missed test) not to reinstate a player after a year.

 

[Soulfly3]

39 for season long and the next highest is 7.

40 for full season

16 for less.

at least Im not alone

 

[dickey moe]

Summary execution.

 

[Phenix]

Great thread, Joe.

We all know where I stand.

So, Ill have Gordon back for fantasy playoff time, Adam?

Sick!

So, Ill have Gordon back for fantasy playoff time, Adam?

Sick!

If I'm guessing, then I'd say you've got about a 25% chance of it.

better than the 0% Ive been getting from folks.

Keep on rockin' my friend.

39 for season long and the next highest is 7.

40 for full season

16 for less.

at least Im not alone

Four posts from you and four references about you.

This is a Josh Gordon thread, please keep the "way you stand" in another thread please. That way we are not reading your conflicts with others here.

Thanks in advance.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Other.

I believe he will be suspended for at least the entire season. I think the substance abuse rules for multiple offenders state that a player would be suspended indefinitely and would be eligible to ask for reinstatement after a year is up. But the player has to get reinstated, so there is a chance it could last more than a year. And I believe it is a calendar year, not 16 regular season games (ie, would have to miss all regular season and playoff games if the Browns qualified for the post season). But I haven't looked at the revised CBA after the last go round, so I don't know if the language and requirements have changed.

Probably true but the league would need a reason (failed/missed test) not to reinstate a player after a year.

There's probably a fairly high chance that Gordon gives them a reason or ten if he's away from the team for a year. Particularly given the fact that he was still driving around with a sack of weed in his car as of a week ago. He either can't stop or just doesn't care -- and that's not a value judgement. If someone gave me a few million dollars at 22 I'm guessing I wouldn't have felt the need to be super responsible so I could earn even more money.

 

[jurb26]

Looks like a landslide here and I'm not different from the masses. A year seems eminent in this case.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Looks like a landslide here and I'm not different from the masses. A year seems eminent in this case.

But there's the rub. We don't get to decide. We're just trying to guess what Goodell will decide here. I do think it's a pretty fascinating subject though.

J

 

[jurb26]

Looks like a landslide here and I'm not different from the masses. A year seems eminent in this case.

But there's the rub. We don't get to decide. We're just trying to guess what Goodell will decide here. I do think it's a pretty fascinating subject though.

J

FWIW, I voted for the way I think Goodell will decide and not the way I think it should go. The incident in the car shortly after the "alleged" failed test is a nail in the coffin IMO.

 

[bumpman]

Other.

I believe he will be suspended for at least the entire season. I think the substance abuse rules for multiple offenders state that a player would be suspended indefinitely and would be eligible to ask for reinstatement after a year is up. But the player has to get reinstated, so there is a chance it could last more than a year. And I believe it is a calendar year, not 16 regular season games (ie, would have to miss all regular season and playoff games if the Browns qualified for the post season). But I haven't looked at the revised CBA after the last go round, so I don't know if the language and requirements have changed.

Probably true but the league would need a reason (failed/missed test) not to reinstate a player after a year.

I'm not sure this is true. Is this written somewhere? I was always under the impression that once you got suspended indefinitely, the league could just use its own discretion whether to allow you back or not. Tanard Jackson just got reinstated for 2014 by the NFL after being suspended indefinitely in August 2012. He was eligible to be reinstated in August 2013, but we know now that didn't happen.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/05/05/tanard-jackson-to-be-reinstated-by-nfl/

 

[Dragon1952]

I'm going with 6-8 games. I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension.

Daryl Washington just got suspended for the season for a similar marijuana incident. I doubt the NFL can pick favorites and have drastically different outcomes for similar infractions.

Hence the comment "I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension"

 

[nirad3]

I'm going with 6-8 games. I think there has to be some kind of mitigating circumstance, or something that we don't know that will factor in to a lesser suspension.

I went with 8 myself. There's been this "there's something that Gordon, Rosenhaus and the Browns know" cloud hanging over this since before the draft. Maybe that's out the window now with this latest infraction, but I think there's a good chance he'll get dinged for half the season.

I understand Washington was just suspended a year for similar violations... but wondering if his aggravated assualt charge figured into that as well?

 

[bumpman]

Other.

I believe he will be suspended for at least the entire season. I think the substance abuse rules for multiple offenders state that a player would be suspended indefinitely and would be eligible to ask for reinstatement after a year is up. But the player has to get reinstated, so there is a chance it could last more than a year. And I believe it is a calendar year, not 16 regular season games (ie, would have to miss all regular season and playoff games if the Browns qualified for the post season). But I haven't looked at the revised CBA after the last go round, so I don't know if the language and requirements have changed.

Probably true but the league would need a reason (failed/missed test) not to reinstate a player after a year.

I'm not sure this is true. Is this written somewhere? I was always under the impression that once you got suspended indefinitely, the league could just use its own discretion whether to allow you back or not. Tanard Jackson just got reinstated for 2014 by the NFL after being suspended indefinitely in August 2012. He was eligible to be reinstated in August 2013, but we know now that didn't happen.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/05/05/tanard-jackson-to-be-reinstated-by-nfl/

Here is the language directly from the NFL Substance Abuse Policy:

c. Reinstatement.

(1) Criteria: After the completion of the one-year banishment

period, the Commissioner, in his sole discretion, will

determine if and when the player will be allowed to return

to the NFL. A player’s failure to adhere to his Treatment

Plan during his banishment will be a significant

consideration in the Commissioner’s decision of whether to

reinstate a player. A player seeking reinstatement must

meet certain clinical requirements as determined by the

Medical Director and other requirements as set forth in

Appendix B.

 

[Bronco Billy]

To infinity and beyond!

 

[Soulfly3]

come onnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn announcement!!!!

 

[Sweet Love]

I think an equally good idea for a thread would be whether people take the over/under (yes/no) that he gets in trouble again before an announcement is made.

 

[cstu]

I think an equally good idea for a thread would be whether people take the over/under (yes/no) that he gets in trouble again before an announcement is made.

 

[Soulfly3]

Why hasn't Joe Bryant let us know what HE thinks happens?

Cmon, Joe!!!!

 

[Phenix]

I think an equally good idea for a thread would be whether people take the over/under (yes/no) that he gets in trouble again before an announcement is made.

Im in on the over.

 

[cstu]

Other.

I believe he will be suspended for at least the entire season. I think the substance abuse rules for multiple offenders state that a player would be suspended indefinitely and would be eligible to ask for reinstatement after a year is up. But the player has to get reinstated, so there is a chance it could last more than a year. And I believe it is a calendar year, not 16 regular season games (ie, would have to miss all regular season and playoff games if the Browns qualified for the post season). But I haven't looked at the revised CBA after the last go round, so I don't know if the language and requirements have changed.

Probably true but the league would need a reason (failed/missed test) not to reinstate a player after a year.

I'm not sure this is true. Is this written somewhere? I was always under the impression that once you got suspended indefinitely, the league could just use its own discretion whether to allow you back or not. Tanard Jackson just got reinstated for 2014 by the NFL after being suspended indefinitely in August 2012. He was eligible to be reinstated in August 2013, but we know now that didn't happen.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2014/05/05/tanard-jackson-to-be-reinstated-by-nfl/

True. He had received a 4 game and a 16 game suspension before getting the indefinite suspension. It also didn't help him that his indefinite suspension was in August, 2012 and the league wouldn't even start evaluating him for reinstatement until August 2013. The timing of it made it a two season suspension.

For comparison, Justin Blackmon was suspended in November so it's likely he misses all of 2014 but could return by the time the 2015 season starts.

 

[Joe Bryant]

Why hasn't Joe Bryant let us know what HE thinks happens?

Cmon, Joe!!!!

My TOTAL GUESS is 8 games. Something about this taking so long makes me think there's something going on that will be a surprise. Couple that with the Brown's seemingly super casual attitude for replacing him. (of course that could just be ineptness...)

I have zero backup for this guess though. It's just pure speculation on my part.

J

 

[Soulfly3]

Don't you DARE call my Browns inept!!!!!

Just cuz you're kid is dumb, doesn't mean you tell him that! He's just... special.

ps: nice prediction

 

[Anarchy99]

For those that missed it just the other day, PFT posted that Gordon was in Stage 3 of the substance abuse program. With another strike against him, that would institute the outcome I posted earlier in the thread (minimum one year suspension plus need for reinstatement). Another point of distinction in the article is that he will remain in Stage 3 for the rest of his career, meaning that any time he messes up he would face a one year ban.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/05/28/josh-gordon-already-is-in-stage-3-of-the-substance-abuse-program/

 

[Soulfly3]

Why hasn't Joe Bryant let us know what HE thinks happens?

Cmon, Joe!!!!

My TOTAL GUESS is 8 games. Something about this taking so long makes me think there's something going on that will be a surprise. Couple that with the Brown's seemingly super casual attitude for replacing him. (of course that could just be ineptness...)

I have zero backup for this guess though. It's just pure speculation on my part.

J

Maybe I shouldnt have asked...

Noone wants to debate anymore.

 

[grateful zed]

Don't you DARE call my Browns inept!!!!!

then why are you wearing a giants shirt?

 

[Soulfly3]

Don't you DARE call my Browns inept!!!!!

then why are you wearing a giants shirt?

I dont know how to read

 

[Bronx Bomber]

I think this is a perfect "expectations vs. expected value" situation. My expectation (i.e. the single outcome that I think is most likely) would be that Gordon gets suspended indefinitely with an opportunity for reinstatement a year from now (note: an opportunity, not a certainty). If this were a roulette table and I was placing chips down, I'd put them down on "16+ games".

This. I think he's facing the dreaded Blackmon suspended indefinitely punishment.

I would have voted year plus also if there was an option. I'm guessing he will have another incident during whatever suspension he is issued that will put him in Blackmon status.

 

[Childress]

Why hasn't Joe Bryant let us know what HE thinks happens?

Cmon, Joe!!!!

My TOTAL GUESS is 8 games. Something about this taking so long makes me think there's something going on that will be a surprise. Couple that with the Brown's seemingly super casual attitude for replacing him. (of course that could just be ineptness...)

I have zero backup for this guess though. It's just pure speculation on my part.

J

That's exactly how I looks at it and that's why I was in buy mode. This latest incident during memorial day, even thought HE wasn't charged with possession, sort of ruined that for me.

Good thread.

 

[msudaisy26]

He is getting a year. For pure comedic value I hope they don't announce the suspension until late August. I have a couple of league mates that are Browns fans and love talking trash. One if them swears up and down that Gordon will be the reason he wins our league when he comes back for their ninth game and will dominate the league.

 

[Peak]

I'm in the camp that it is less than a year. My thought is 6-8 games. It's odd that nothing has really been said about his future, even after all the announcements were made last week. I have to think there is something behind that which is driving longer discussions and how to proceed. I don't think this past weekend's activities hurt him, but the situation doesn't look good. I think he wins his appeal, but still faces a suspension of sorts to start the year.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

That would be a risky precedent for the league. If he wins and Im a player in the first part if stage two and I've been smoking then Id just skip my next test and appeal when they put me on stage three.

On on a side note. Wasn't the NBA players previous style embedded in the culture? Yet Stern enforced the suit and tie look and now look at the league and the compliance and it seems most players are into the style now and embracing it.

 

[FF_WMD]

8 games

 

[DAG]

I voted for a full season along with most everyone. I do hope he only gets 8 games or so. If that happens I'll put him on the trade block as soon as the season is over, or maybe after his first big game if I'm not willing to risk waiting that long.

 

[Bronco Billy]

I think people are reading way too much into the delay.

The NFL lawyers are notorious for being extremely thorough. If this is an indefinite suspension there is also no motivation to move quickly and miss a loophole. If there is going to be additional action that crosses between the substance abuse policy and the behavior policy I would guess that the league is being extraordinarily cautious with the CBA in mind.

i do imagine the Browns are well aware of the likely length of the penalty.