Your guys to grab and avoid in 2013 (1 Viewer)

[Khy]

This isn't necessarily a post about 'undervalued' or 'overvalued' players. It's more of a gut feeling thread, I know a lot of people do what I do where they make a judgment call on a lot of players leading up to their drafts. And there are simply guys that you "want" to land and guys that you really want to avoid unless they drop to you that most other people do not want to avoid. Going to just pick a few out from each position. Interested to see what others opinions are as well.

Guys I Want

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QB

Russell Wilson (Current ADP 7.01): Being that I tend to wait on QB Wilson is the proverbial "#1 QB" on my board this year. He had a good season last year and I think he sees a decent uptick in yardage and TDs as well as overall attempts. He won't put up Rodgers, Brees, Manning numbers because he'll still be 100-200 attempts shy of those guys. As I said in the spotlight thread on him, he's Brees with wheels. My projection for him this year is: 300/450 66.6% 3600 yards, 34 TDs 11 INTs and 85 carries, 425 yards, 4 TDs. Should put him in the Top 5-10 QBs.

Josh Freeman (Current ADP 14.01): Until he fell off a cliff in the last 3-4 weeks last season he was in route to a top 10 performance. This is his 'prove it or die' year and I think he proves it. THere's a really solid chance of him finishing in the top 10 this year and if you can get a Top 10 QB at the cost of a 14th pick. Then you take it. My projection for him this year is: 340/560 4,300 yards 26 TDs 18 INTs and 35 carries for 140 yards and 1 TD

RB

Jamaal Charles (Current ADP 1.04): He's my 1.01 this season in redraft in PPR and non PPR. I just see him flourishing beyond words in an Andy Reid offense with a very smart and effective signal caller in front of him in Alex Smith. My projection for him this year is: 280 carries, 1500 yards, 12 TDs and 65 receptions 600 yards 5 TDs

David Wilson (Current ADP 3.08): A lot of people are scared off of him because of Andre Brown and the few question marks surrounding him in regards to his pass protection and fumble woes. I'm not buying into any of this... as a Giants homer I've watched and listened to enough of Tom Coughlin and Jerry Resse to know that they wouldn't have cut Bradshaw loose if they didn't have 100% full confidence in Wilson leading this teams backfield. They aren't stupid, they have to understand that prior to last year Andre Brown had 3 years in this league with 2 carries and -1 yard total because he couldn't stay healthy. They aren't relying on Brown to take a lot of carries... this is now the David Wilson show. And it's going to be something special to watch. My projection for him this year is: 225 carries 1100yds 8 TDs : 40 receptions 400yds 1 TD as his floor. I think he comes in more along the lines of 270 carries, 1320 yards 10 TDs and 45 receptions 425 yards 3 TDs.

WR

Tavon Austin (Current ADP 6.07): I know, I know. He's too small, the game speed of the NFL will catch up to him. Blah blah blah... this kid is going to be a star. And you will want him on your team. The Rams love everything about him so far, beat writers and coaches can't stop talking about him. He's going to be a massive moving piece in what I expect to be a young and electric Rams offense this year. Yes, he does have to face the elite corners of the NFC West but honestly, he's a matchup nightmare for guys like Sherman and Browner who in my opinion just won't be able to match his quickness. My projection this year for him: 85 receptions 1100 yards 9 TDs, 30 rushes 250 yards 3 TDs.

Mike Williams (Current ADP 9.04): He finished last season as WR18 but somehow is around the WR40 range at current ADP. How? This literally does no compute to me in any way shape or form. He won't greatly out do his last season but still at this ADP he's the biggest steal I'm seeing in redraft. Projections: 70 receptions 1100 yards 10 TDs

TE

None: I'm not really specifically targeting any one specific TE. I won't be getting Graham because I'm not willing to draft him as early as I have to and will likely end up waiting awhile like last season. Nobody really "jumps" at me. Maybe Dustin Keller?

Guys I'm Avoiding

--------------

QB

Colin Kaepernick (Current ADP 6.05): Right now he's the #7 QB coming off the board and while he may out produce that I just have trouble trusting someone like this who only played 10 NFL games. Albeit he's played well but I want to see more from him before I completely buy in on him. I don't think he'll be bad this season necessarily but there's a chance and it's a risk I'd just prefer to avoid for such a high pick.

RB

Doug Martin (Current ADP 1.03): There are several threads on these boards where you can see me discuss his inconsistency last season and crunch the numbers on it as well. I don't think he finishes in the Top 5 this season and I will draft him as such. Not a "Massive" come down from last year, but you have to realize 1/3 of his production came in 2 games. My projection this year: 315 carries, 1300 yards, 8 TDs and 45 receptions 400 yards 1 TD.

WR

Nicks/Cruz: They're going to see a small reduction in targets in favor of Rueben Randle. UNLESS one of them signs between now and the start of the season. Otherwise, I think Randle is going to see a significant amount of touches in this offense as a kind of "show me" opportunity for the coaches and the front office. The Giants have a history of letting players who want big money walk and finding talent to plug in for them. They've done it with TEs and years, they've done it on their defense as well and they've done it before with their WRs. They will give Randle the shot he needs to blow up because if he does they won't feel as pressured to find ways to keep both Cruz and Nicks next season and will be comfortable letting them walk. It's a purely gut feeling but don't expect one of them to put up 1200+ yards and 10+ TDs. I just don't see it happening. Not to mention I also foresee the running attack taking another 30-40 offensive snaps out of Eli's hands like the effective attack has done in the past.

TE

None: At this very moment I'd say Gronkowski as there are just WAY to many question marks surrounding him right now. Some reports say he should be good for week 1 and I've seen others saying he may miss 4-6 games of the season. Hopefully there is more clarity on this in a month or so when most of our redrafts start up. If not though I'm going to be taking a keen step back on him.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Great thoughts here and I agree I am on Wilson and Tavon hard this year but those are two guys that you can't wait to get.

Both will be the apple of other eyes and they are guys that someone will jump on out of the blue. It won't be a WR run and then Tavon goes projections for him alter so drastically between all owners.

Good list tho.

 

[butcher boy]

Guys I want:

Jamaal Charles - Will push for RB1 this year.

Andre Johnson - His ADP of 3.10 seems like a steal to me.

Vernon Davis: I see him getting more active in the passing game with the Crabtree injury.

Guys I don't want:

Lamar Miller/Vick Ballard/Chris Ivory: Using these guys as an example, but the slew of round 4-7 RBs completely underwhelm me this year. Last year there were so many sleepers in this group and this year they all seem like Shonn Greene clones. I'll get RBs early this year and pass on all these guys.

 

[Khy]

Guys I want:

Jamaal Charles - Will push for RB1 this year.

Andre Johnson - His ADP of 3.10 seems like a steal to me.

Vernon Davis: I see him getting more active in the passing game with the Crabtree injury.

Guys I don't want:

Lamar Miller/Vick Ballard/Chris Ivory: Using these guys as an example, but the slew of round 4-7 RBs completely underwhelm me this year. Last year there were so many sleepers in this group and this year they all seem like Shonn Greene clones. I'll get RBs early this year and pass on all these guys.

I agree on your guys I don't want for the most part... there seem to be a TON of Shonn Greene type guys out there this season. Personally, I now do not want any part of Bradshaw either. I think Ballard can be had for a rather late pick if Bradshaw is named the starter and that is an offer I'll take. Bradshaw will get hurt and when he does I'll take a RB whose going to give me 15-20 carries a game for more or less free. I'm going even harder on RBs early this season than I ever did before, I definitely seem myself going 1.XX RB, 2.XX RB, 3.XX RB as I don't trust any of the other guys after those first three rounds and we can start 3 RBs in my league with the flex. After that I'd rather stash a few late guys who just need an injury to take hold. Guys like Latavius Murray or Joseph Randle who have very high chances of seeing a decent chunk of starts during the bye week season.

 

[Toad_1234]

Guys I want:

Jamaal Charles - Will push for RB1 this year.

Andre Johnson - His ADP of 3.10 seems like a steal to me.

Vernon Davis: I see him getting more active in the passing game with the Crabtree injury.

Guys I don't want:

Lamar Miller/Vick Ballard/Chris Ivory: Using these guys as an example, but the slew of round 4-7 RBs completely underwhelm me this year. Last year there were so many sleepers in this group and this year they all seem like Shonn Greene clones. I'll get RBs early this year and pass on all these guys.

I agree on your guys I don't want for the most part... there seem to be a TON of Shonn Greene type guys out there this season. Personally, I now do not want any part of Bradshaw either. I think Ballard can be had for a rather late pick if Bradshaw is named the starter and that is an offer I'll take. Bradshaw will get hurt and when he does I'll take a RB whose going to give me 15-20 carries a game for more or less free. I'm going even harder on RBs early this season than I ever did before, I definitely seem myself going 1.XX RB, 2.XX RB, 3.XX RB as I don't trust any of the other guys after those first three rounds and we can start 3 RBs in my league with the flex. After that I'd rather stash a few late guys who just need an injury to take hold. Guys like Latavius Murray or Joseph Randle who have very high chances of seeing a decent chunk of starts during the bye week season.

But which RB to target in Round 3 is the question. MJD appeals to me the most but the bust factor with Round 3 RBs this year looks huge.

 

[Jedi Knight]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

 

[jurb26]

To the guys saying Martin. Do you realize he played with a decimated oline last year? If his line is back, healthy and playing to their potential he should challenge for RB1 in fantasy. Also, the make shift group they had last year could explain his inconsistency.

 

[jurb26]

Guys I want;

Stafford, nobody near his ADP has near the potential he does.

L. Miller, hopefully the hype train slows up or his ADP won't really justify it anymore.

Z. Stacy, long shot perhaps but at the price why not? I think Fisher will want a guy who can pound the ball at a D. This is the only guy on the roster capable if that.

D. Bowe, I see WR1 numbers at WR2 price.

Patterson, call it a hunch but I think Minn has bigger plans for him than their letting on right now.

DHB, I've brought him up in several threads now but I just think he's primed for a great treat with Luck.

 

[msudaisy26]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

I don't like a lot of this don't draft list.

Brady - his age isn't a concern, remember Manning last year, he has had a top 5 season with worse options.

Can Newton - he has had very little talent around him since he got into the league.

Frank Gore - last year he was over 28 and was a top ten guy, why would you miss out again?

Steve Smith - he was older than dirt minus 1 last year and still produced and is still the best option on that team.

Tony Gonzalez - the guy is a freak, and that is all that needs to be said.

I disagreed with some of the others but the reasoning behind these guys was the most flawed

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

I would like to figure out how to win a championship without Adrian Peterson. And I'd like to figure out if I am willing to risk doing that. If I am then I think Charles + Forte/McCoy (if poss. in auctions) is the way to go. Forte with Trestman seems really exciting.

PPR Reggie Bush - this year, it works.

PPR Sproles, yep, yep, yep.

I am really looking forward to reports on where Wilson is falling in early drafts, as I would love to get him at the right price. Stafford is a fallback & Weeden with Norv Turner & Chud calling the shots downfield might be the flyer.

Graham - in any other city I would pay any price, but playing in New Orleans leagues make those prices beyond reasonable. Everyone knows the score, and now the Saints will have 3 new WRs in training, supposedly Graham has been out wide in camp more than ever. It's almost unfair to have this WR1 at TE, but in my leagues he will be going at crazy high rate. - I might go Jordan Cameron and Brandon Myers as flyers.

Fitzgerald - I keep thinking of what Palmer did with Denarious Moore, and then adding in Fitz instead with Arians who will be thinking of what he did with Wayne. Could be terrific. Hopefully past disappointments will override name.

Josh Gordon - follow the OC.

Danario Alexander - McCoy will know what to do with him.

Dem. Thomas - I think everyone will be going nuts for Welker and Decker, hopefully Thomas slips down

Broyles

Bryant - well I hate the Cowboys, but he won leagues last year and this year he gets the AFCW & the NFCC; my only question mark is Callahan's impact. Besides Peterson, if you want to win your league, this seems to me to be a 2nd real "must have".

Chris Givens

DeSean Jackson

ETA: How about some more Cecil Shorts.

ETA: Zuerlein - let's try this again

Guys I'm avoiding:

- Foster, I agree there.

- Even if back by Week 1, Griffin, less running + big press = fewer points, less value

- Falcons. I never draft them.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Interesting. "Big press = fewer points".

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Interesting. "Big press" = fewer points.

No, I'm speaking of draft value. Maybe I'm wrong (frequently probably) because after all with the injury maybe he drops, I don't know. The main point was that I am supposing he will be doing less running.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Interesting. "Big press" = fewer points.

No, I'm speaking of draft value. Maybe I'm wrong (frequently probably) because after all with the injury maybe he drops, I don't know. The main point was that I am supposing he will be doing less running.

You could be right, but everything out of DC suggests he won't run less. The Shanahans have repeatedly said that the read-option looks, where RG3 has a choice to run, protect him from hits. He was injured on scrambles outside the pocket. They have repeatedly said that he needs to learn to slide better and more often, but that they believe his threat to run actually protects him.

 

[Warrior]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

I don't like a lot of this don't draft list.

Brady - his age isn't a concern, remember Manning last year, he has had a top 5 season with worse options.

Can Newton - he has had very little talent around him since he got into the league.

Frank Gore - last year he was over 28 and was a top ten guy, why would you miss out again?

Steve Smith - he was older than dirt minus 1 last year and still produced and is still the best option on that team.

Tony Gonzalez - the guy is a freak, and that is all that needs to be said.

I disagreed with some of the others but the reasoning behind these guys was the most flawed

Some people always use this reasoning..."He's only one year older than last season" and then they end up paying top dollar for a player the year he falls off a cliff in production due to age catching up to him. I said this same thing every single season about Marvin Harrison towards the end of his career. With a similar mindset as yours, I FINALLY drafted him one year after everyone said "He's only one year older than last year, age has never affected him before" and of course he hit the wall.

Good luck with that thinking...it'll only work until it doesn't, and then you'll be the one without a chair once the music stops.

 

[Run It Up]

Targetting:
QB: Peyton Manning, Robert Griffin, Andy Dalton, Eli Manning (if they can get Nicks and Cruz on the field at the same time)

RB: Ray Rice, Chris Johnson, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Fred Jackson

WR: Danny Amendola, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Roddy White, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace

TE: Graham, Gronk, Eifert

Avoid:
QB: Russel Wilson, Colin Kaepernick
RB: Marshawn Lynch, CJ Spiller, Doug Martin, Lesean Mccoy
WR: Brandon Marshall, Dez Bryant, Steve Smith, Percy Harvin, Dwayne Bowe
TE: Tony Gonzalez

 

[Khy]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

I don't like a lot of this don't draft list.

Brady - his age isn't a concern, remember Manning last year, he has had a top 5 season with worse options.

Can Newton - he has had very little talent around him since he got into the league.

Frank Gore - last year he was over 28 and was a top ten guy, why would you miss out again?

Steve Smith - he was older than dirt minus 1 last year and still produced and is still the best option on that team.

Tony Gonzalez - the guy is a freak, and that is all that needs to be said.

I disagreed with some of the others but the reasoning behind these guys was the most flawed

Some people always use this reasoning..."He's only one year older than last season" and then they end up paying top dollar for a player the year he falls off a cliff in production due to age catching up to him. I said this same thing every single season about Marvin Harrison towards the end of his career. With a similar mindset as yours, I FINALLY drafted him one year after everyone said "He's only one year older than last year, age has never affected him before" and of course he hit the wall.

Good luck with that thinking...it'll only work until it doesn't, and then you'll be the one without a chair once the music stops.

I agree here... not necessarily with the players who are mentioned. But EVERY player needs to fall off the ledge at some point in their career. So sure saying "He's just one year older than last year" is true. One year shouldn't make a difference, eventually it does.

I agree on avoiding Brady this season, not really because of his age simply because I feel the talent around him is the lowest it's been in YEARS.

And I've been on that "avoid Cam" camp since last season and I don't want to leave it now. That team is a train wreck and he is the only brightside on it in my opinion. They need to figure out some stuff there and I just don't see it happening this year with a new Offensive Coordinator who was promoted from inside Chudzinski's AWFUL system from the past few years.

I also agree with Frank Gore here on age because there is a LOT of proof behind RBs over 30 not producing. Something about that age is just a bad time for them. Add to that fact that the 49ers have some talent behind him in Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James. Gore may end up being a decent goal line back and score 8 TDs or so but I'm not expecting more than like 600-700 yards tops which for his ADP isn't worth it.

Steve Smith I agree on. If you think about it he had already fallen off that cliff in 2009 and saw a bit of a resurgence thanks to Cam in 2011. Then last year dipped a huge amount again (-200 yards and -4 TDs). This year he'll dip again. He'll be under 1000 yards and under 5 TDs this year. Not even close to value at his ADP.

Gonzo I'm not sure about... he's one of those guys who is a freak BUT I don't like him at his current ADP. Last season I grabbed him as the like 8th TE off the board and that was value. Right now he's going around TE4-5 and I'm not sure I like him that much over guys going a little bit later than him like Pitta. If he happens to slip a little bit and I can get him a round or two later than his ADP then obviously I'll take him.

 

[Anarchy99]

Avoid:

RB: CJ Spiller

I would be interested to hear the logic behind this one. Everything I've seen indicates he will see the ball way more, whether it be on 3rd downs, short yardage, goal line, catching passes, etc. and Jackson will see a greatly reduced role. How does that make Spiller a guy to avoid?

 

[donkshow]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

I don't like a lot of this don't draft list.

Brady - his age isn't a concern, remember Manning last year, he has had a top 5 season with worse options.

Can Newton - he has had very little talent around him since he got into the league.

Frank Gore - last year he was over 28 and was a top ten guy, why would you miss out again?

Steve Smith - he was older than dirt minus 1 last year and still produced and is still the best option on that team.

Tony Gonzalez - the guy is a freak, and that is all that needs to be said.

I disagreed with some of the others but the reasoning behind these guys was the most flawed

Some people always use this reasoning..."He's only one year older than last season" and then they end up paying top dollar for a player the year he falls off a cliff in production due to age catching up to him. I said this same thing every single season about Marvin Harrison towards the end of his career. With a similar mindset as yours, I FINALLY drafted him one year after everyone said "He's only one year older than last year, age has never affected him before" and of course he hit the wall.

Good luck with that thinking...it'll only work until it doesn't, and then you'll be the one without a chair once the music stops.

He was also coming off a season-ending knee injury..

 

[Khy]

Avoid:

RB: CJ Spiller

I would be interested to hear the logic behind this one. Everything I've seen indicates he will see the ball way more, whether it be on 3rd downs, short yardage, goal line, catching passes, etc. and Jackson will see a greatly reduced role. How does that make Spiller a guy to avoid?

Yeah... what? As far as I'm concerned Spiller is more or less a lock for Top 5 if he stays healthy. Hell I hope guys in my league feel the same way. I'd love to pair Spiller with Charles LOL

 

[Run It Up]

Avoid:

RB: CJ Spiller

I would be interested to hear the logic behind this one. Everything I've seen indicates he will see the ball way more, whether it be on 3rd downs, short yardage, goal line, catching passes, etc. and Jackson will see a greatly reduced role. How does that make Spiller a guy to avoid?

Yeah... what? As far as I'm concerned Spiller is more or less a lock for Top 5 if he stays healthy. Hell I hope guys in my league feel the same way. I'd love to pair Spiller with Charles LOL

Because I don't think he can handle the load, if he somehow goes the entire season without reinjury, he will begin to lose carries to FJax who I'm not convinced isn't already gonna get 30-40% of them. Preemptive, yes and blah blah blah about the coaching staff talking about feeding Spiller, I'm aware, I just don't believe it will pan out that way, so I will abstain from taking him at what I think is an outrageous place. I think he has a good shot at finishing top 10 even if he doesn't get injured but still loses carries, I just don't think hes a top 5 pick, which where I've been seeing him go.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Targets:

Matt Stafford - Last year was the aberration.

Matt Ryan - I don't need him to win NFL playoff games on my fantasy team.

Matt Forte (ppr) - Monster PPR year coming up.

Trent Richardson (non-PPR) - Easy to say? Injury bug is scaring some people. Not me

Larry Fitzgerald - Palmer's not great but underrated and will clearly be able to get the ball to LF.

Kyle Rudolph - Until Patterson gets up to speed, KR will be the #2 target and is an up and comer at the TE position.

Avoids:

Kaepernick - Not sold on him as a passer.

Philip Rivers - He used to be a value play when he had talent around him. Now, he's running for his life and throwing to air.

Mike Wallace - I just don't believe...

Anyone that plays for the Jets, Raiders, or Jaguars (except maybe Cecil Shorts)

 

[gianmarco]

Avoid -- Hernandez

 

[TheDirtyWord]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Loved this format…[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Guys I want:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB1- Luck/Romo – the QB depth just seems to be better than ever and if you can grab either on of these guys in Round 7-8, I feel that their floors are so attractive while still maintaining significant upside potential that there’s never been a better time to wait on QB.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB2 – Sam Bradford – Steven Jackson gone so no crutch for offense to lean on. Have invested in playmakers on offense that are probably still raw, but with Bradford having same OC for first time as a pro…seems to be the QB2 you can draft later than Round 11-12 that has the best chance to jump up to low QB1 territory. Why not, right?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB1- Ray Rice – seems like the world is souring on him a bit and jumping on the Bernard Pierce bandwagon. Don’t underestimate the need for Rice to step up as a team leader on the Ravens. A big void there with Ray retired even if he was injured for the better part of last year. Rice is still incredibly productive and he’s a Top 5 RB you can get outside of the Top 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB1- Darren McFadden – a decent chance I’m a crusin’ for a bruisin’. But he’s being drafted in the 3rd round. He was stymied by an inept OC in 2012 trying to fit a square peg in a round hole offense. And he seems perpetually injured. But at the time of his injury in 2011, he was a Top 3 RB. He’s in a contract year, the offense is being geared around his strengths again. Noone in this range comes close to his upside.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB2- Eddie Lacy – When your QB accounts for 28% of your rushing TD’s over the last 3 seasons, either you have one of those read-option guys who running skill is built into the DNA of the offense OR you have an inept rushing offense. Lacy comes into a situation with a prolific offensive team that has been searching for a physical yet dynamic compliment for awhile. His ability didn’t drop him to Round 2, his long term health did. Could be a 1200 YFS/10 TD guy. Going in Round 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB2- Shane Vereen – Offensive talent and personnel has been pared from this team (Welker, Lloyd, Woodhead) and posseses a questionable status heading into 2013 (Gronk, Hernandez). Vereen started to show significant multi-dimensional ability late last season and earned more trust of Belichick/Brady. He’s going in Round 7-8 and Stevan Ridley doesn’t catch the ball. Major sleeper.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB2 – Rashard Mendenhall – my guess is that his ADP will settle in the mid 4th round range draining his sleeper potential. But Arians seems intent on seeing what he’s got and if he even produces to his 2011 pre-injury levels, he’s a very solid pick here. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Andre Johnson – for years, he was seen as a Top 3 WR. He just put up a career high in yardage while a mercurial stat like TD’s was down and you can get him at the end of Round 3/beginning of Round 4? Sounds like value.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR2- Eric Decker – simply not convinced he’ll be affected much by Welker. Certainly not in the red zone. I think there is enough for all the WR’s to eat (…now the TE’s…?).[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR2- Jordy Nelson – yes he was hurt last year, but he doesn’t need a lot of targets to produce big numbers. After a breakout 2011, he was still on pace to produce a 71/1083/10 line. And with Greg Jennings gone, a little bit of a target void exists. Lots of people targeting Randall Cobb, but I like Nelson’s value better in Round 5.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TE1- Vernon Davis – who else can Kaepernick trust to catch passes? I won’t get him because I suspect he could have an ADP in Round 3 by draft day. But he sure looks good now.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TE1- Greg Olsen – He’s currently being drafted as the 14th TE. Can someone explain to me the difference between him and Dennis Pitta? Value galore.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Guys I don't want:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB1- Tom Brady – storm clouds brewing. He won’t suck in real football, but with QB so deep this year, why spend early on him.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB1- Cam Newton – Still too Jeckyl & Hyde for my taste. Why he’s going above Matt Ryan, I’m not sure. If he goes through a bad stretch, could really hurt your season and until he starts showing a certain emotional poise.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB1 – Colin Kaepernick – he seems to lead that 2nd tier of QB’s that includes the following (RGIII, Romo, Wilson, Luck, Stafford). Why is his upside any better than anyone listed? Who else lost 34% of their 2012 targets?[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]QB2- Philip Rivers – Can he have a comeback year? Maybe…but o-line is still a mess and I started to sense a trend of poor decision making on Rivers part of it because of it. Offense is probably better suited to their talent now, but dink and dunk isn’t a way to QB1 land.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB1- Arian Foster – he’s a TD machine but all of a sudden disappeared from the passing game. The Texans seem to have no regard for managing his workload and he experienced calf issues this off-season. If I’m drafting in the Top 5, I would rank the guys on a risk-averse basis. Foster is drafted in the Top 5 most of the time. He carries the most risk.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB1- Steven Jackson – he’s clocking in as an RB1 technically. I think the Falcons are much more cognizant of RB workload now than they were 2-3 years ago. They need S-Jax come January, not September/October. Won’t be a 250 carry/50-60 catch guy…he’ll be a 225 carry/30-40 catch guy. That loss of 200-250 YFS takes him down to RB2 territory for me.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB2- Montee Ball – This is going to be completely dependent on how well he performs in pass protection during TC and into his rookie year. He’ll definitely have a role in the run game, but his situation with Hillman/Moreno seems a bit cloudier than some of the other RB’s. And the need for the Broncos to protect their QB seems more acute than any of the other rookie RB situations.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]RB2- Stevan Ridley – Ridley possesses little value in the passing game. At the outset of the season, it’s possible that the WR/TE line-up for NE is this: Amendola, Dobson, Edelman, Michael Jenkins, Hoomanuwani). This could go one of two ways; 1) the Patriots becoming a much more run-centric offense or 2) Ridley starts to share more snaps at the RB position with more versatile options. I don’t know which way they’ll wind up going, but 2 scares me enough to deter me from using a 2nd rounder on him.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Brandon Marshall - 40% of the Bears targets again? No sir. Other than that, I like all of the other WR1’s for the most part.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR2- Dwayne Bowe – he’s been the recipient of being the premiere and primary target in KC since he was drafted largely. But I suspect, Andy Reid will try and diversify the passing game in KC. I think those hoping for a resurgence will be left wanting.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]TE1- Aaron Hernandez – So much hooskow potential…[/SIZE]

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Why would anyone avoid Brandon Marshall?

 

[Run It Up]

Why would anyone avoid Brandon Marshall?

I love the Bears, I love Cutler and I love Marshall, I just think having him projected as top 5 WR is asking too much, I hope he proves me wrong, and I hope I don't play against him in the playoffs.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Why would anyone avoid Brandon Marshall?

I love the Bears, I love Cutler and I love Marshall, I just think having him projected as top 5 WR is asking too much, I hope he proves me wrong, and I hope I don't play against him in the playoffs.

Anytime he's had even adequate QB play he's caught over 100 balls. Even with the thowback offenses in Miami he caught 86 and 81.

Dude's a monster and now that he appears to have his mental health in check I don't see any reason to red flag him.

 

[Run It Up]

Why would anyone avoid Brandon Marshall?

I love the Bears, I love Cutler and I love Marshall, I just think having him projected as top 5 WR is asking too much, I hope he proves me wrong, and I hope I don't play against him in the playoffs.

Anytime he's had even adequate QB play he's caught over 100 balls. Even with the thowback offenses in Miami he caught 86 and 81.

Dude's a monster and now that he appears to have his mental health in check I don't see any reason to red flag him.

Maybe I should have qualified my list, I would still draft Marshall or Spiller, but only if they slipped. I don't think they are worth it at their current power ranking.

 

[msudaisy26]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

I don't like a lot of this don't draft list.

Brady - his age isn't a concern, remember Manning last year, he has had a top 5 season with worse options.

Can Newton - he has had very little talent around him since he got into the league.

Frank Gore - last year he was over 28 and was a top ten guy, why would you miss out again?

Steve Smith - he was older than dirt minus 1 last year and still produced and is still the best option on that team.

Tony Gonzalez - the guy is a freak, and that is all that needs to be said.

I disagreed with some of the others but the reasoning behind these guys was the most flawed

Some people always use this reasoning..."He's only one year older than last season" and then they end up paying top dollar for a player the year he falls off a cliff in production due to age catching up to him. I said this same thing every single season about Marvin Harrison towards the end of his career. With a similar mindset as yours, I FINALLY drafted him one year after everyone said "He's only one year older than last year, age has never affected him before" and of course he hit the wall.

Good luck with that thinking...it'll only work until it doesn't, and then you'll be the one without a chair once the music stops.

How many years did in a row did you say that about Harrison? Probably 3 or 4 so he was a good pick 75 percent of the time. We should all be so lucky to hit on 75 percent of our picks.

 

[Anarchy99]

Avoid:

RB: CJ Spiller

I would be interested to hear the logic behind this one. Everything I've seen indicates he will see the ball way more, whether it be on 3rd downs, short yardage, goal line, catching passes, etc. and Jackson will see a greatly reduced role. How does that make Spiller a guy to avoid?

Yeah... what? As far as I'm concerned Spiller is more or less a lock for Top 5 if he stays healthy. Hell I hope guys in my league feel the same way. I'd love to pair Spiller with Charles LOL

Because I don't think he can handle the load, if he somehow goes the entire season without reinjury, he will begin to lose carries to FJax who I'm not convinced isn't already gonna get 30-40% of them. Preemptive, yes and blah blah blah about the coaching staff talking about feeding Spiller, I'm aware, I just don't believe it will pan out that way, so I will abstain from taking him at what I think is an outrageous place. I think he has a good shot at finishing top 10 even if he doesn't get injured but still loses carries, I just don't think hes a top 5 pick, which where I've been seeing him go.

So the guy that got the smallest workload of the top backs is the one most likely to get hurt? You answered my question, so I guess I can't expect more for an answer.

Spiller is going in the 7-12 range overall. He ranked as the #7 RB last year on roughly 200 carries. Unless you think he is going to see a smaller workload or will have a serious injury, I don't see many scenarios where he doesn't al least do as well as he did last year.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

any data to back this up?, because a lot of players spring to mind that would make this seem like faulty logic.

 

[jurb26]

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

any data to back this up?, because a lot of players spring to mind that would make this seem like faulty logic.

Yeah, this seem off to me as well. What if a guy finishes at 6 or 7 or 4 or even 10 for that matter? Just because he is not in the top 3 doesn't mean he isn't worth the pick.

 

[greggorymac]

Guys I want:

QB1- Brees. With his coach back, I feel like this could be similar to when Bellicheck was fined for Spygate and the Patriots exploded.

QB1- Russel Wilson. He was number 1 overall in weeks 9-17 in our league. I don't see that regressing much.

RB1- Jamal Charles. Andy Reid's RB's have always delivered and this is lining up to be a very special year for him.

RB1- David Wilson. He just looked amazing with the ball in his hands.

RB2- Lamar Miller. Too much of a golden situation to not want him on my roster.

RB2- Darren Sproles. See reasoning for Brees.

WR1- Dez Bryant. He seems to have matured into his talent. That's scary for defenses.

WR1- Larry Fitzgerald. I see a MAJOR bounce back year with a much better QB than last year.

WR2- Mike Wallace. Just a good "gut" feeling about what's happening in Miami

WR2- Danny Amendola. He's going to be a PPR monster and I believe he can stay healthy.

TE1- Vernon Davis. With Crabtree gone for at least most of the year, he can be the number 1 option in the passing game.

TE1- Jimmy Graham. Probably won't get him, but he's elite.

Guys I don't want.

QB1- Tom Brady. He's 37. Major questions with Gronk and Hernandez now. I'll pass.

QB1- Cam Newton. I don't see any upgrades in the passing game and he is not a leader yet.

QB2- Joe Flacco. I don't see a repeat of last year. Besides, during the season he was only QB14 and I think it's his ceiling.

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

RB1- Doug Martin. He just never impressed me with the eyeball test. I know it's only an opinion/gut thing.

RB2- MJD. He doesn't appear to be coming back from this foot injury easily. Age is a factor now.

RB2- Frank Gore. He's 30. I don't draft RB's over 28 years old.

WR1- Andre Johnson. Total gut feel that it's time for his decline. Besides, he seems to do well every other year. This year is the off-year.

WR1- Brandon Marshall. I don't see a repeat of 40% of the passing game.

WR2- Steve Smith. He's older than dirt. I'll let someone else draft him.

TE1- Gonzo. Always wary of a player that tried to retire, but the team begged him back.

TE2- Antonio Gates. I drank the kool-aid last year. Not doing it again.

Sproles is 30.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

any data to back this up?, because a lot of players spring to mind that would make this seem like faulty logic.

Yeah, this seem off to me as well. What if a guy finishes at 6 or 7 or 4 or even 10 for that matter? Just because he is not in the top 3 doesn't mean he isn't worth the pick.

I'd say that any player than manages 3 top 5 seasons in a row, is a player that you can count on. As you state, no guarantee he'll be a top 5 again but top 10 would seem like a lock barring injury.

Guys like Edgerrin James, LT2, Ray Rice, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Emitt Smith, Terell Davis, Steven Jackson (or basically any back that managed three elite seasons) continued to put forth elite seasons afterwards, when healthy. Sure any RB will eventually hit the end of the line, but at 26-27 I'd think Foster isn't there yet.

 

[Anarchy99]

I guess one man's trash is another man's treasure. There were 28 RB age 30+ in the past 10 years that ranked in the Top 25 RBs. And I'm guessing they cost less on draft day than many other younger backs. I agree that in the main older backs might be ones to avoid, but it depends on the player, the situation, his injury history, his role and workload, etc. Not sure a blanket statement of DO NOT DRAFT would be the way to go on that front.

 

[CentralPA]

TARGETING:

Stevan Ridley: Simply because the talent around the offense in New England has dropped significantly. Don't see how he doesn't benefit

Shane Vereen (if no Ridley): Takes over Woodheads spot. Could end up being a Sproles type back.

Torrey Smith: Other than Rice the top offensive producer on the Ravens should end up being Smith. No more Bolden. Could see Pitta possibly being a deterrent but most likely Smith has maybe one of his best years in his young career.

Danny Amendola: He's going to be the No. 1 wideout with one of the best QBs in the league throwing him the ball. PPR Stud. Might catch more TDs with all the uncertainty going on with the TEs (Gronks injury, AH possibly ending up in the slammer).

Cecil Shorts: No Blackmon, was the most consistent WR for Jacksonville. Even with bad QB play he produced.

AVOID:

MJD: I've loved him in my PPR league for years but the Lis Franc scares me and he may not even be healthy for the beginning of TC

Trent Richardson: Seems constantly banged up. He has toughed it out but with the problems with Gordon I can see most defenses crowding the LoS just to stop Richardson.

Ryan Mathews: Mr. Glass

Eddy Lacy: Toe

Well, the avoids are mainly injury but that's just how I see it right now. Gambles i'm not willing to take.

 

[Khy]

RB1- Arian Foster. I have a rule. Any RB that has been in the top 5 for three straight seasons is undraftable. It's a personal rule, but only a couple of players have proved me wrong in continuing playing at that level.

any data to back this up?, because a lot of players spring to mind that would make this seem like faulty logic.

Yeah, this seem off to me as well. What if a guy finishes at 6 or 7 or 4 or even 10 for that matter? Just because he is not in the top 3 doesn't mean he isn't worth the pick.

I'd say that any player than manages 3 top 5 seasons in a row, is a player that you can count on. As you state, no guarantee he'll be a top 5 again but top 10 would seem like a lock barring injury.

Guys like Edgerrin James, LT2, Ray Rice, Brian Westbrook, Adrian Peterson, Emitt Smith, Terell Davis, Steven Jackson (or basically any back that managed three elite seasons) continued to put forth elite seasons afterwards, when healthy. Sure any RB will eventually hit the end of the line, but at 26-27 I'd think Foster isn't there yet.

I disagree on the "reasoning" for not wanting Foster. That said I agree this year he's fools gold. For a few legit reasons not some faulty age or to good for to long reason. I've owned him all three seasons and for the past two he was my 1.01. This year though I'm not drafting him above any of the following: Charles, AP, McCoy, Martin, TRich, Spiller. Why? Well for a few reasons.

1. If it wasn't for his crazy number of TDs last season he would have had an abysmal fantasy year. He's gone from 4.9ypc to 4.5ypc to 4.1ypc last season, something isn't right.

2. The amount of carries he had last year was complete insanity. Sure, AP had the same roughly but AP didn't show signs of slowing down the past few years; Foster has shown them.

3. His receptions keep dropping at a alarming rate. From 66 to 53 to 40. So each year he's lost 13 receptions? Assuming a trend we're talking somewhere around 27-30 receptions this season?

4. While all of these production stats are dropping his carries are also going steadily up. From 327, to 278 (13 games factors to about 342 over 16), to 351. Touches up, production down to me equals something wrong.

I wouldn't be shocked this season if his statline ends up something like 350 carries, 1300 yards, 9 TDs 35 Receptions 180 yards 1 TD. Which at his current ADP is complete rubbish.

 

[Leonidas]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.[/SIZE]

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft?

It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

 

[Instinctive]

TARGETS

RB:

Shane Vereen - the more the mess with Brady's targets grows, the more I like Vereen.

Darren McFadden - Is his ADP in the 3rd round? Good grief. Another victim of the "myth of the injury prone," I think I'd love to have McFadden this year, back in a scheme that suits his running talents.

WR:

Justin Blackmon - love me some suspended guys when I think they'll still perform very well on a per game basis. I'm thinking a super duper cheap WR2. Guy's a monster.

Kenny Britt - great gamble. Low risk because he's going as a bench/flex player, could be a top 15 wideout.

Mike Williams (TB) - I think he outperformed VJax last year, had a great rookie season, and people still have a sour taste in their mouth because of his bust as a sophomore.

TE:

Aaron Hernandez/Rob Gronkowski - same principle as Blackmon, although the uncertainty surrounding Hernandez very much makes it a value prop that is changing. The farther he falls before we know anything definitive, the more attractive he becomes. This is likely to change closer to the season. Same uncertainty with Gronk. If he misses a couple games and it causes him to fall, I can't wait to grab him.

 

[ScottNorwood]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

 

[Khy]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

I'm going to be honest, nothing would make me happier than someone picking Megatron in my leagues at 1.02. That seems blasphemous... he had what? 10 more points than Brandon Marshall last year and like 20 more than AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Just seems like complete and utter insanity to consider taking him at 1.02 with the depth at WR. You have to go to like WR5 just to meet the same gap as RB1 and RB2. Do I think Calvin will be WR1 again? Absolutely... besides possibly Jimmy Graham I think he has the highest odds to finish #1 at his position. That said, I think you'd have to be high to take him over a proven elite RB in the first round. The earliest I can see taking him is sometime between 1.09-1.12. Otherwise you're passing up on AP, Martin, Foster, Charles, Morris, Lynch, Spiller and McCoy in favor of him? No way. I'll take one of them and swing around and draft my WR1 in the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Realize at 1.02 it's legitimately an option to go Charles, Ridley, Vincent Jackson. I like that a ton better than say Calvin, Ridley, MJD.

 

[ScottNorwood]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

I'm going to be honest, nothing would make me happier than someone picking Megatron in my leagues at 1.02. That seems blasphemous... he had what? 10 more points than Brandon Marshall last year and like 20 more than AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Just seems like complete and utter insanity to consider taking him at 1.02 with the depth at WR. You have to go to like WR5 just to meet the same gap as RB1 and RB2. Do I think Calvin will be WR1 again? Absolutely... besides possibly Jimmy Graham I think he has the highest odds to finish #1 at his position. That said, I think you'd have to be high to take him over a proven elite RB in the first round. The earliest I can see taking him is sometime between 1.09-1.12. Otherwise you're passing up on AP, Martin, Foster, Charles, Morris, Lynch, Spiller and McCoy in favor of him? No way. I'll take one of them and swing around and draft my WR1 in the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Realize at 1.02 it's legitimately an option to go Charles, Ridley, Vincent Jackson. I like that a ton better than say Calvin, Ridley, MJD.

I think he'll have more Tuddys than he had last year. He's my top WR, and the RBs behind AP have some small warts imho.

I think he has a lower risk for injuries than the RBs mentioned. He probably has the highest floor of ANY player.

 

[Toad_1234]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

I'm going to be honest, nothing would make me happier than someone picking Megatron in my leagues at 1.02. That seems blasphemous... he had what? 10 more points than Brandon Marshall last year and like 20 more than AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Just seems like complete and utter insanity to consider taking him at 1.02 with the depth at WR. You have to go to like WR5 just to meet the same gap as RB1 and RB2. Do I think Calvin will be WR1 again? Absolutely... besides possibly Jimmy Graham I think he has the highest odds to finish #1 at his position. That said, I think you'd have to be high to take him over a proven elite RB in the first round. The earliest I can see taking him is sometime between 1.09-1.12. Otherwise you're passing up on AP, Martin, Foster, Charles, Morris, Lynch, Spiller and McCoy in favor of him? No way. I'll take one of them and swing around and draft my WR1 in the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Realize at 1.02 it's legitimately an option to go Charles, Ridley, Vincent Jackson. I like that a ton better than say Calvin, Ridley, MJD.

This. Lions have arguably the worst O-line in the NFL and Stafford has had some injury problems in the past. He's great but I don't see him in the top 8.

 

[Leonidas]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

I'm going to be honest, nothing would make me happier than someone picking Megatron in my leagues at 1.02. That seems blasphemous... he had what? 10 more points than Brandon Marshall last year and like 20 more than AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Just seems like complete and utter insanity to consider taking him at 1.02 with the depth at WR. You have to go to like WR5 just to meet the same gap as RB1 and RB2. Do I think Calvin will be WR1 again? Absolutely... besides possibly Jimmy Graham I think he has the highest odds to finish #1 at his position. That said, I think you'd have to be high to take him over a proven elite RB in the first round. The earliest I can see taking him is sometime between 1.09-1.12. Otherwise you're passing up on AP, Martin, Foster, Charles, Morris, Lynch, Spiller and McCoy in favor of him? No way. I'll take one of them and swing around and draft my WR1 in the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Realize at 1.02 it's legitimately an option to go Charles, Ridley, Vincent Jackson. I like that a ton better than say Calvin, Ridley, MJD.

Calvin had an inordinately low number of TD's last year, and many probalby noticed how often he was tackled at or inside the 1. That is sure to change this year.

Why are you comparing RB1 vs RB2? If you have pick 1.02, you aren't getting Peterson, and forecasting the top scoring RB(s) can be pretty difficult. I think projecting Calvin to be top at his position is a much higher percentage play that forecasting an RB to be top at his position (with Peterson not being an option).

I would happily pass on Spiller and Morris in order to take Calvin. Probably Lynch and McCoy as well. Charles, Foster, and Martin are the big draws IMO.

Also, I forgot to mention (somebody above just did), but I figure a WR, especially one built like Calvin, has a lower risk of catastrophic injury than any RB.

Edit: The reality is I don't want pick 1.02. I want pick 1.01 or like 1.05-6. Would make this a lot easier.

 

[Leonidas]

This. Lions have arguably the worst O-line in the NFL and Stafford has had some injury problems in the past. He's great but I don't see him in the top 8.

Is there line any worse than it was last year?

Yeah, Stafford and his shoulders...but he hasn't had any major issues the past couple years, correct?

 

[Toad_1234]

And knee. Yes, I think their line is even worse. Stafford has stayed healthy for couple of years, but that's what scares me. I don't like the chances of Stafford and Bush staying healthy behind that O-Line. It's a glass half full-empty scenario.

I don't think Calvin will have 5 TD's, but I don't think he'll grab 16 either. Or even 12 for that matter. I could be wrong of course, but I think the lack of a strong second receiving option and injury risks knock him out of my top 8.

The depth at WR and the top-heavy nature of RB this year also are factors.

 

[Leonidas]

And knee. Yes, I think their line is even worse. Stafford has stayed healthy for couple of years, but that's what scares me. I don't like the chances of Stafford and Bush staying healthy behind that O-Line. It's a glass half full-empty scenario.

I don't think Calvin will have 5 TD's, but I don't think he'll grab 16 either. Or even 12 for that matter. I could be wrong of course, but I think the lack of a strong second receiving option and injury risks knock him out of my top 8.

The depth at WR and the top-heavy nature of RB this year also are factors.

I wonder if the top heavy elite RB's make taking Calvin 1.02 more viable this year than last. Last year everybody in the world had their eyes set on a mere 3 RB's as being worthy of the first picks (Foster, McCoy, Rice). With such a perceived dropoff in expected return so quickly if you had a really high pick, like 1.02, you just about had to take one of them, and you would probably feel much more secure/confident with one of those three than one of the big group that followed. This year, however, there are around 8-10 RB's that most people put up at the top, and 4-6 they put WAY at the top, so taking one of them (again, not Peterson) doesn't seem to necessarily differentiate you the way that taking one of the 3 last year would have.

Taking Calvin, however, certainly seems to differentiate you from darn near everybody else.

Or not?

 

[Toad_1234]

As always though, it depends on other factors as well. League size, Positional starting requirements, PPR or not and the skills of each FF owner. I'm terrible at finding late value at RB in the draft and on the waiver wire. I'm much better at locating sleeper QB's and WR's and grabbing those off the wire.

Other owners have different skill sets so it's not like these opinions are set in stone. I've learned my FF strengths and weaknesses the hard way.

 

[Slider]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

I'm going to be honest, nothing would make me happier than someone picking Megatron in my leagues at 1.02. That seems blasphemous... he had what? 10 more points than Brandon Marshall last year and like 20 more than AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Just seems like complete and utter insanity to consider taking him at 1.02 with the depth at WR. You have to go to like WR5 just to meet the same gap as RB1 and RB2. Do I think Calvin will be WR1 again? Absolutely... besides possibly Jimmy Graham I think he has the highest odds to finish #1 at his position. That said, I think you'd have to be high to take him over a proven elite RB in the first round. The earliest I can see taking him is sometime between 1.09-1.12. Otherwise you're passing up on AP, Martin, Foster, Charles, Morris, Lynch, Spiller and McCoy in favor of him? No way. I'll take one of them and swing around and draft my WR1 in the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Realize at 1.02 it's legitimately an option to go Charles, Ridley, Vincent Jackson. I like that a ton better than say Calvin, Ridley, MJD.

This. Lions have arguably the worst O-line in the NFL and Stafford has had some injury problems in the past. He's great but I don't see him in the top 8.

Larry Warford should be a major upgrade for them.

 

[King of the Jungle]

WR1- Megatron – I seem to be swimming against the tide, but I actually like the RB value in Round 4-7 this year. So my thought process as it stands today is that I’d be willing to spend my first round pick on Megatron so long as it’s not the first pick. Simply put, he provides the best chances to provide differentiating production at his position than almost any other player.

So would you consider taking him at 1.02 in a standard redraft? It would be so much easier to take him, personally, after AD, Foster, and Charles are off the board. But #2 overall...I do believe you are onto something with him having one of the highest chances of differentiating production at his position, and I'll bet his catastrophic injury risk is lower than RB's...interesting to think about taking him 1.02. Or would that just be crazy?

1.02 without hesitation

I'm going to be honest, nothing would make me happier than someone picking Megatron in my leagues at 1.02. That seems blasphemous... he had what? 10 more points than Brandon Marshall last year and like 20 more than AJ Green and Dez Bryant? Just seems like complete and utter insanity to consider taking him at 1.02 with the depth at WR. You have to go to like WR5 just to meet the same gap as RB1 and RB2. Do I think Calvin will be WR1 again? Absolutely... besides possibly Jimmy Graham I think he has the highest odds to finish #1 at his position. That said, I think you'd have to be high to take him over a proven elite RB in the first round. The earliest I can see taking him is sometime between 1.09-1.12. Otherwise you're passing up on AP, Martin, Foster, Charles, Morris, Lynch, Spiller and McCoy in favor of him? No way. I'll take one of them and swing around and draft my WR1 in the 2nd or more likely 3rd round. Realize at 1.02 it's legitimately an option to go Charles, Ridley, Vincent Jackson. I like that a ton better than say Calvin, Ridley, MJD.

This. Lions have arguably the worst O-line in the NFL and Stafford has had some injury problems in the past. He's great but I don't see him in the top 8.

Larry Warford should be a major upgrade for them.

Should be, however Dominic Rollover gets muscled around at center and they have no proven solution at either tackle spot.

 

[Air Stich]

I love Calvin and I don't agree that there's this overwhelming depth at WR, but I'm not taking him in the 1st round because I really like the WRs you can get in the 2nd. I'd rather have a McCoy/Dez combo than Calvin/Sjax. I want to take Dez, Green, Marshall, Julio, or Graham in the 2nd, and I don't feel comfortable doing that unless I get a stud RB in the 1st round.