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Your pre-draft rookie WR rankings (1 Viewer)

zadok

Footballguy
What are yours? Here are mine.

* = value as a returner

1. *Cordarrelle Patterson, Tennessee
2. DeAndre Hopkins, Clemson
3. Justin Hunter, Tennessee
4. Robert Woods, USC
5. Keenan Allen, Cal
6. *Tavon Austin, West Virginia
7. Terrance Williams, Baylor
8. Da’Rick Rogers, Tenn Tech
9. Ryan Swope, Texas A&M
10. Josh Boyce, TCU
11. Stedman Bailey, West Virginia
12. *Quinton Patton, Louisiana Tech
13. Aaron Dobson, Marshall
14. Marcus Davis, Va Tech
15. Markus Wheaton, Oregon St
16. *Ace Sanders, South Carolina
17. Chris Harper, Kansas St.
18. Corey Fuller, Virginia Tech
19. Aaron Mellette, Elon
20. Kenny Stills, Oklahoma
21. *Denard Robinson, Michigan
22. *Marquise Goodwin, Texas
23. Marquess Wilson, Wash St.
24. Cobi Hamilton, Arkansas
25. Tavarres King, Georgia
26. Conner Vernon, Duke
27. *Jasper Collins, Mount Union
28. Chad Bumphis, Mississippi St.
29. Zach Rogers, Tennessee
30. T.J. Moe, Missouri
 
This is a really good list. Assuming you have tiers hidden within the rankings somewhere, I can't really argue with the general placement of any of the top dozen on this list.

However, if you are going to put Marcus Davis #14 (assuming due to raw physical talent), it seems glaring that Mark Harrison isn't on this list at all. I'm not convinced either will become a starter in the NFL, but they have very similar profiles.

I also like Wheaton a lot more than you do; I would likely put him in the Swope/Boyce group.

Overall, a solid list; good job!

 
This is a really good list. Assuming you have tiers hidden within the rankings somewhere, I can't really argue with the general placement of any of the top dozen on this list.

However, if you are going to put Marcus Davis #14 (assuming due to raw physical talent), it seems glaring that Mark Harrison isn't on this list at all. I'm not convinced either will become a starter in the NFL, but they have very similar profiles.

I also like Wheaton a lot more than you do; I would likely put him in the Swope/Boyce group.

Overall, a solid list; good job!
Agree. Rutgers homer here. If someone like Tiquan Underwood can stick around, I have to think Harrison has a good chance. I think he compares more to Sanu or Britt physically and talent-wise than Underwood.

 
This is a really good list. Assuming you have tiers hidden within the rankings somewhere, I can't really argue with the general placement of any of the top dozen on this list.

However, if you are going to put Marcus Davis #14 (assuming due to raw physical talent), it seems glaring that Mark Harrison isn't on this list at all. I'm not convinced either will become a starter in the NFL, but they have very similar profiles.

I also like Wheaton a lot more than you do; I would likely put him in the Swope/Boyce group.

Overall, a solid list; good job!
Thanks!

You are exactly right about Davis being that high, that is the only reason. Great question about Harrison - I'm concerned about his foot injury and his overall lack of production since 2010. That would scare me away as a GM.

Lots of folks like Wheaton better that I do - I just see a one trick pony with him ala Bernard Berrian, Ashley Lelie, etc. Skinny like Todd Pinkson too. : :yucky:

 
1.) Patterson.

2.) Austin.

3.) Hopkins.

Patterson has big upside.

Austin is the most impressive physically.

Hopkins is a straight-beast, ####er caught 18 TDS last-year.

 
Top 3 in some order would be Hunter, Patterson, and Rogers. Those are the three who seem to have difference maker potential.

Next tier would be Austin, Allen, Hopkins, Patton, Woods, Boyce, Harper, and Wheaton in some order. These are more your #2 type of receivers than your future dominant #1. Austin's size is a huge red flag and Hopkins doesn't have enough speed or explosiveness to be a #1. Probably the most overrated WR in the draft there.

Swope, King, Wilson, and Davis are decent mid-late round gambles. Davis might not test as well as Harrison, but don't let that fool you. He is more fluid and efficient. A much better prospect. I've reviewed some of his games watching every target and I think he will go higher than projected (4th-5th round) based on physical ability and potential.

 
IMO Hunter is the top WR in this class... he has the highest ceiling in my eyes. Then I think Allen #2 then Austin #3 would be my top tier. Patterson, Rogers, Wheaton, Woods, and Hopkins next tier and then there's alot of middle round guys who have some nice attributes who could be a nice fit in certain situations. Swope and Bailey were solid in the NCAA and it will be interesting how they translate to the NFL, but they're intriguing. Harrison and Dobson are prototypical receivers size-wise and with time to develop could become starters. Patton, Williams, M.Davis, Boyce, Goodwin are guys I'm looking at in later rounds followed by Charles Johnson as a deep target at the end of drafts.

 
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1. DaRick Rogers

2. Justin Hunter

3. DeAndre Hopkins

4. Quinton Patton

5. Cordarrelle Patterson

6. Tavon Austin

7. Josh Boyce

8. Ryan Swope

9. Chris Harper

10. Aaron Dobson

11. Markus Wheaton

12. Keenan Allen

13. Mark Harrison

14. Marcus Davis

15. Robert Woods

16. Steadman Bailey

17. Aaron Mellette

18. Kenny Stills

19. TJ Moe

20. Tavarres King

 
The point people are missing about Justin Hunter is that he already has the the ability to run and jump in stride and extend and catch with his hands very well. His drop stats are what they are, but his techinique and fluidity for doing things are correct. He's not that far off from putting it all together and when he does even NFL corners won't be able to do much but tip their cap when he goes up and makes a play. He doesn't have to relearn fundamental movement, explosion, and coordination skills to reach his potential, he just needs to practice and refine what he already has which is a logical progression. His cooridination is exceptional for his size as is his athleticism. The knock on his hands is statistical, not fundamental. Stats decieve in ways fundamentals do not. He is going to be hard to stop in ways that most other prospects could never be. NFL rules favor his game too, becuase you can't get the hits on his frail frame on jump balls without a penalty. The strategies to use his skillset are very strong, he's a rare and valuable prospect in terms of winning offense because he has great length but still moves like a smaller more coordinated athlete.

 
The point people are missing about Justin Hunter is that he already has the the ability to run and jump in stride and extend and catch with his hands very well. His drop stats are what they are, but his techinique and fluidity for doing things are correct. He's not that far off from putting it all together and when he does even NFL corners won't be able to do much but tip their cap when he goes up and makes a play. He doesn't have to relearn fundamental movement, explosion, and coordination skills to reach his potential, he just needs to practice and refine what he already has which is a logical progression. His cooridination is exceptional for his size as is his athleticism. The knock on his hands is statistical, not fundamental. Stats decieve in ways fundamentals do not. He is going to be hard to stop in ways that most other prospects could never be. NFL rules favor his game too, becuase you can't get the hits on his frail frame on jump balls without a penalty. The strategies to use his skillset are very strong, he's a rare and valuable prospect in terms of winning offense because he has great length but still moves like a smaller more coordinated athlete.
:goodposting: I threw this in the Gordon thread where there was concerns about Hunter being an option but it fit's with what you're saying and I completely agree with you.

The drops are concerning... I came across an interesting statistic today via Rotoworld on twitter found here -https://twitter.com/...7881088/photo/1.

Hunter had the #1 "Clutch" reception percentage in college football last season which are receptions resulting in a 1st down or a Touchdown. He came in at 76.7% so of his 73 receptions, 56 were for first downs or touchdowns. Other notable receivers on the list - Kenny Stills (73.5%), Markus Wheaton (71.1%), DeAndre Hopkins (70.7%), Marqise Lee at (55.9%) and Tavon Austin (50.0%).

I think it says quite a bit about his big play / field stretching ability. While it doesn't change the fact that he dropped what he did, it's still an interesting statistic showing his potential. I think the drops are something that can be fixed and coached. His ability for big plays and stretching the field can't.

 
Justin Hunter has some of the worst catching technique I've seen. Doesn't consistently get the hands in the correct position. Asymmetrical at times. His hands are too soft to a fault. Doesn't attack the ball enough for my liking.

 
Justin Hunter has some of the worst catching technique I've seen. Doesn't consistently get the hands in the correct position. Asymmetrical at times. His hands are too soft to a fault. Doesn't attack the ball enough for my liking.
I don't know if it's technique or concentration. He does attack the ball most of the time IMO, but you're right he's not consistent. He's made some moss-esque highlight grabs throughout his career and it's enough to make me think he just needs to be coached up on it. We'll see though.

 
Justin Hunter has some of the worst catching technique I've seen. Doesn't consistently get the hands in the correct position. Asymmetrical at times. His hands are too soft to a fault. Doesn't attack the ball enough for my liking.
Can you expand on this? I rewatched some stuff and I'm just not seeing it. What exactly needs to be symmetrical? thumb and index finger curvature? and does it have to be perpendicular to the path of the ball as well?If this is some of the worst catching technique you've seen how do you account for all the catches he does make, is there anything he does well? If you were his coach what would the major technique overhaul be or would you just move him to DB?

What do you think of the symmetry of this guy: http://youtu.be/e04Q5AihGD4

 
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Justin Hunter has some of the worst catching technique I've seen. Doesn't consistently get the hands in the correct position. Asymmetrical at times. His hands are too soft to a fault. Doesn't attack the ball enough for my liking.
Can you expand on this? I rewatched some stuff and I'm just not seeing it. What exactly needs to be symmetrical? thumb and index finger curvature? and does it have to be perpendicular to the path of the ball as well?If this is some of the worst catching technique you've seen how do you account for all the catches he does make, is there anything he does well? If you were his coach what would the major technique overhaul be or would you just move him to DB?

What do you think of the symmetry of this guy: http://youtu.be/e04Q5AihGD4
I would say Nicks has much better technique than Hunter, and is a better WR overall anyway. He, too, can improve his technique as he's had cases of the drops before. Most WRs can improve their technique. It's just that Hunter is the worst I've seen.

He doesn't need an overhaul. It's a simple fix. Get the hands symmetrical and closer together and do it early. Is that really that hard to do? It's like his hands are "lost". They have no kinesthetic awareness.

https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/3455091892/d7026667f31de13e210a05ee5ad567ac.jpeg

http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/49/files/2013/02/6759538.jpg

http://media.govolsxtra.com/media/img/photos/2013/02/24/NFL_Combine_Football_Lute5_t607.jpg

http://media.dev-cms.com/twincities/1500espn/images/mainwipe/1361737939-Justin_Hunter.jpg

The hand should move as one unit:

http://cdn.fansided.com/wp-content/blogs.dir/182/files/2011/02/JJones-CombineBanner.png

http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1551789/Cody_Hoffman_DSC04589.JPG

 
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I see what you're saying now. The pictures were very helpful. Good eye. Thanks.

I still feel like there are many times when he catches the ball well in game at high speed and even with elevation. His technique may be inconsistent, but it's enough of a detriment to change how I feel about him as a prospect. The bad does not outweigh the good in my eyes.

How do you feel about Justin Hunter as a pro prospect?

 
I see what you're saying now. The pictures were very helpful. Good eye. Thanks. I still feel like there are many times when he catches the ball well in game at high speed and even with elevation. His technique may be inconsistent, but it's enough of a detriment to change how I feel about him as a prospect. The bad does not outweigh the good in my eyes. How do you feel about Justin Hunter as a pro prospect?
If I want a physical specimen at WR with unpolished skills, I'd rather look at Marcus Davis.

 
EBF, on 21 Apr 2013 - 15:25, said:Top 3 in some order would be Hunter, Patterson, and Rogers. Those are the three who seem to have difference maker potential.Next tier would be Austin, Allen, Hopkins, Patton, Woods, Boyce, Harper, and Wheaton in some order. These are more your #2 type of receivers than your future dominant #1. Austin's size is a huge red flag and Hopkins doesn't have enough speed or explosiveness to be a #1. Probably the most overrated WR in the draft there. Swope, King, Wilson, and Davis are decent mid-late round gambles. Davis might not test as well as Harrison, but don't let that fool you. He is more fluid and efficient. A much better prospect. I've reviewed some of his games watching every target and I think he will go higher than projected (4th-5th round) based on physical ability and potential.
This is close to how I see although I'm not as down on Hopkins as you are and Austin's talent outweighs my size concerns. My first tier is Patterson, Hopkins, Hunter, Rogers and Austin. In the second tier are Allen, Patton, Woods, Wheaton, and Williams. I also like Harper and Boyce almost enough to put them in the second tier.My pick for the highest riser after the draft is Marquess Wilson. There's enough talent there that if he goes to a good situation he could do well.
 
EBF, on 21 Apr 2013 - 15:25, said:Top 3 in some order would be Hunter, Patterson, and Rogers. Those are the three who seem to have difference maker potential.Next tier would be Austin, Allen, Hopkins, Patton, Woods, Boyce, Harper, and Wheaton in some order. These are more your #2 type of receivers than your future dominant #1. Austin's size is a huge red flag and Hopkins doesn't have enough speed or explosiveness to be a #1. Probably the most overrated WR in the draft there.Swope, King, Wilson, and Davis are decent mid-late round gambles. Davis might not test as well as Harrison, but don't let that fool you. He is more fluid and efficient. A much better prospect. I've reviewed some of his games watching every target and I think he will go higher than projected (4th-5th round) based on physical ability and potential.
This is close to how I see although I'm not as down on Hopkins as you are and Austin's talent outweighs my size concerns. My first tier is Patterson, Hopkins, Hunter, Rogers and Austin. In the second tier are Allen, Patton, Woods, Wheaton, and Williams. I also like Harper and Boyce almost enough to put them in the second tier.My pick for the highest riser after the draft is Marquess Wilson. There's enough talent there that if he goes to a good situation he could do well.
:thumbup: talent is there, if the NFL thinks he's over his attitude problem, this will be spot on.

 
So I compiled 16 different scout rankings on the WR and kept all players who were ranked 25 or higher in at least 9 of the 16 lists. I may have missed a couple players who could be close to borderline because they were not ranked high enough to list in the 1st half I compiled, but I noticed some different names who might have made the bottom of this list if I compiled enough lists for them to be ranked.

I do list 2 players who are below 25 overall in average ranking, They are Marquess Wilson and Mark Harrison. Harrison has a very high variance in how he is ranked. One source has him in the top 10 while another outside the top 50. I am missing some data as some do not rank him also, but I included him as a player I am interested in, although he may be a project. Wilson on the other hand is ranked by most, but most have him somewhere after 20 for WR. One had him as high as 14.

Here is the list and how high they were ranked on average-


Cordarrelle Patterson 3
Keenan Allen 3
Tavon Austin 3.19

DeAndre Hopkins 4.31
Robert Woods 5.5

Quinton Patton 7
Justin Hunter 7.56
Markus Wheaton 7.87

Terrance Williams 10
Stedman Bailey 10.13
Da'Rick Rogers 10.13

Aaron Dobson 13
Ryan Swope 13.56

Marquise Goodwin 15.07
Kenny Stills 15.33
Chris Harper 15.33

Denard Robinson 17.45
Tavarres King 17.6
Cobi Hamilton 17.83

Aaron Mellette 20.07
Josh Boyce 20.1
Corey Fuller 21.27
Ace Sanders 21.16
Marcus Davis 22.71
Conner Vernon 22.33
Marquess Wilson 25.14
Mark Harrison 28.5

I would like to further evaluate this list looking at their college production and combine measurables but I have run out of time and the draft is almost upon us.

 
So I compiled 16 different scout rankings on the WR and kept all players who were ranked 25 or higher in at least 9 of the 16 lists. I may have missed a couple players who could be close to borderline because they were not ranked high enough to list in the 1st half I compiled, but I noticed some different names who might have made the bottom of this list if I compiled enough lists for them to be ranked.

I do list 2 players who are below 25 overall in average ranking, They are Marquess Wilson and Mark Harrison. Harrison has a very high variance in how he is ranked. One source has him in the top 10 while another outside the top 50. I am missing some data as some do not rank him also, but I included him as a player I am interested in, although he may be a project. Wilson on the other hand is ranked by most, but most have him somewhere after 20 for WR. One had him as high as 14.

Here is the list and how high they were ranked on average-


Cordarrelle Patterson 3
Keenan Allen 3
Tavon Austin 3.19

DeAndre Hopkins 4.31
Robert Woods 5.5

Quinton Patton 7
Justin Hunter 7.56
Markus Wheaton 7.87

Terrance Williams 10
Stedman Bailey 10.13
Da'Rick Rogers 10.13

Aaron Dobson 13
Ryan Swope 13.56

Marquise Goodwin 15.07
Kenny Stills 15.33
Chris Harper 15.33

Denard Robinson 17.45
Tavarres King 17.6
Cobi Hamilton 17.83

Aaron Mellette 20.07
Josh Boyce 20.1
Corey Fuller 21.27
Ace Sanders 21.16
Marcus Davis 22.71
Conner Vernon 22.33
Marquess Wilson 25.14
Mark Harrison 28.5

I would like to further evaluate this list looking at their college production and combine measurables but I have run out of time and the draft is almost upon us.
Those are close to my "consensus" tiers, which makes sense. I have Woods down in the Patton/Hunter/Wheaton tier and Bailey in his own tier above Williams/Rogers.

 
Better late than never but after quite a bit of pondering:

Short Term (2013):

Tavon Austin

DeAndre Hopkins

Justin Hunter

Cordarrelle Patterson

Keenan Allen

Quinton Patton

Stedman Bailey

Aaron Dobson

Da'Rick Rogers

Markus Wheaton

Robert Woods

Terrance Williams

Long Term (2014+): Tier breaks in this one

Justin Hunter

Tavon Austin

Quinton Patton

Stedman Bailey

Aaron Dobson

DeAndre Hopkins

Keenan Allen

Cordarrelle Patterson

Markus Wheaton

Da'Rick Rogers

Terrance Wiliams

Robert Woods

Location might effect Patton, Wheaton and Williams more than any of the others.

The one wildcard player not mentioned in this list that I think bears watching is Aaron Mellette. The stars will need to align but he is one guy that I can really see greatly overplaying his perceived ability if he lands in the right spot.

 
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Long Term (2014+):

Justin Hunter
I like the braveness of this pick. I dont agree, but I like your willingness.
Yeah, this one is interesting but after a lot of thought on it, i am going to side with the vein of thought that sides with natural posessed ability. I believe that Hunter will come back around. Hunter is one of the few players in this draft that I can see instantly ascending in terms of ability.

 
Long Term (2014+):

Justin Hunter
I like the braveness of this pick. I dont agree, but I like your willingness.
Yeah, this one is interesting but after a lot of thought on it, i am going to side with the vein of thought that sides with natural posessed ability. I believe that Hunter will come back around. Hunter is one of the few players in this draft that I can see instantly ascending in terms of ability.
Completely agreed.

I like that you have Patton that high as well. Bold but not surprising. Really like his game.

 
Better late than never but after quite a bit of pondering:

Short Term (2013):

Tavon Austin

DeAndre Hopkins

Justin Hunter

Cordarrelle Patterson

Keenan Allen

Quinton Patton

Stedman Bailey

Aaron Dobson

Da'Rick Rogers

Markus Wheaton

Robert Woods

Terrance Williams

Long Term (2014+): Tier breaks in this one

Justin Hunter

Tavon Austin

Quinton Patton

Stedman Bailey

Aaron Dobson

DeAndre Hopkins

Cordarrelle Patterson

Markus Wheaton

Da'Rick Rogers

Terrance Wiliams

Robert Woods

Location might effect Patton, Wheaton and Williams more than any of the others.

The one wildcard player not mentioned in this list that I think bears watching is Aaron Mellette. The stars will need to align but he is one guy that I can really see greatly overplaying his perceived ability if he lands in the right spot.
I'll buy Keenan Allen at that price all day, as I will Cordarrelle Patterson. Their value has shifted too much the other way at this point.

 
Long Term (2014+):

Justin Hunter
I like the braveness of this pick. I dont agree, but I like your willingness.
Yeah, this one is interesting but after a lot of thought on it, i am going to side with the vein of thought that sides with natural posessed ability. I believe that Hunter will come back around. Hunter is one of the few players in this draft that I can see instantly ascending in terms of ability.
Based on the buzz, I think Hunter has a pretty good chance to go in the first round tonight. Maybe to Pittsburgh, Houston, or San Francisco.

The way I see it, a WR is usually only worth a first round pick if he brings something special to the table. Guys like Woods and Patton are solid players, but they don't really have dynamic abilities in any given part of the game. Austin, Patterson, and Hunter do. Hunter has some red flags. He has an unconventional body type (much skinnier than a typical elite NFL WR) and is more of a long strider than an efficient mover, but he has special abilities as a vertical threat that could provide enough value to compensate for his shortcomings. Almost like Mike Wallace, albeit with a much different body type/style. When you're 6'4" with 4.4 speed, monster leaping ability, and a huge catch radius, you're going to be very dangerous streaking downfield.

If the team that drafts Hunter unleashes him as a vertical threat and doesn't rely on him to be a great chain mover, he could be pretty effective right away and well worth the price of a first rounder.

 
Long Term (2014+):

Justin Hunter
I like the braveness of this pick. I dont agree, but I like your willingness.
Yeah, this one is interesting but after a lot of thought on it, i am going to side with the vein of thought that sides with natural posessed ability. I believe that Hunter will come back around. Hunter is one of the few players in this draft that I can see instantly ascending in terms of ability.
Based on the buzz, I think Hunter has a pretty good chance to go in the first round tonight. Maybe to Pittsburgh, Houston, or San Francisco.

The way I see it, a WR is usually only worth a first round pick if he brings something special to the table. Guys like Woods and Patton are solid players, but they don't really have dynamic abilities in any given part of the game. Austin, Patterson, and Hunter do. Hunter has some red flags. He has an unconventional body type (much skinnier than a typical elite NFL WR) and is more of a long strider than an efficient mover, but he has special abilities as a vertical threat that could provide enough value to compensate for his shortcomings. Almost like Mike Wallace, albeit with a much different body type/style. When you're 6'4" with 4.4 speed, monster leaping ability, and a huge catch radius, you're going to be very dangerous streaking downfield.

If the team that drafts Hunter unleashes him as a vertical threat and doesn't rely on him to be a great chain mover, he could be pretty effective right away and well worth the price of a first rounder.
Agree and think that should a team like the Texans take him, it could be the type of scenario you are describing. Allow Daniels and AJ to move the chains while Hunter stretches things out. I think it would give Aj and Daniels more room to work with and would be a nice matchup issue as teams might not know which way to give help between Hunter or AJ on the deeper routes.

 

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