ZWK
Footballguy
This thread is for my analysis of the 2020 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2019 draft class, 2018 draft class, 2017 draft class, 2016 draft class, 2015 draft class, 2014 draft class.
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets. WR, RB, QB, and pass rusher spreadsheets are up and running (though missing some stats like WR targets), and TE should get added at some point (perhaps not till after the season). Also: birthdates, VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.
My main source of data is cfbstats, and I also get some things from PFF, Football Study Hall, and other sources (with some stats not coming in until after the season is over).
My thoughts on players at the end of last year:
Much of the content of this thread is based on my player stats spreadsheets. WR, RB, QB, and pass rusher spreadsheets are up and running (though missing some stats like WR targets), and TE should get added at some point (perhaps not till after the season). Also: birthdates, VBD by draft pick (for generic rookie rankings), and dynasty rankings.
My main source of data is cfbstats, and I also get some things from PFF, Football Study Hall, and other sources (with some stats not coming in until after the season is over).
My thoughts on players at the end of last year:
Looking at future draft classes.
My formulas are designed for players who are entering the draft, but several players already have the production and estimated size/speed to match strong prospects entering the draft:
Top Prospects:
RB: Travis Etienne (Clemson), Elijah Mitchell (La-Lafytte)
WR: Laviska Shenault Jr. (Colorado), Justyn Ross (Clemson)
QB: Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama), Jake Fromm (Georgia), Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), D'Eriq King (Houston)
TE: Albert Okwuegbunam (Missouri)
Within each position these are ranked from best to worst. QB evaluation depends more on scouting so I'm less confident of them. I may be missing some TEs since I only ran the numbers on a few non-draft-eligible TEs.
Continuing down the list at each position, here are guys whose numbers were already good enough to be okay/borderline prospects in this year's draft, and who are candidates to emerge as top prospects in a year or two.
Decent Prospects:
RB: Trey Ragas (La-Lafytte), Jonathan Taylor (Wisconsin), D'Andre Swift (Georgia), Kennedy Brooks (Oklahoma), Jermar Jefferson (Oregon St), Michael Warren II (Cincinnati), Scottie Phillips (Miss), Trey Sermon (Oklahoma), Zack Moss (Utah), Benny LeMay (Charlotte), Ke'Shawn Vaughn (Vanderbilt), J.K. Dobbins (Ohio State), DeAndre Torrey (N Texas), Joshua Kelley (UCLA)
WR: Jerry Jeudy (Alabama), Tyler Johnson (Minnesota), Tylan Wallace (Okla St)
QB: Alex Hornibrook (Florida State), McKenzie Milton (UCF), Ian Book (Notre Dame), K.J. Costello (Stanford), Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma), Shea Patterson (Michigan), Alan Bowman (Texas Tech), Zac Thomas (App St), Sam Ehlinger (Texas)
TE: Jared Pinkney (Vanderbilt), maybe others
For WRs entering the draft I'm pretty aggressive about the production cutoff, but since we're looking a year ahead I'll include the next batch here as players to keep an eye on.
Keep An Eye On:
WR: Jalen Reagor (TCU), CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), Darnell Mooney (Tulane), James Proche (SMU), JD Spielman (Nebraska), Collin Johnson (Texas), Rondale Moore (Purdue), Isaiah Hodgins (Oregon St), Denzel Mims (Baylor)
To see how these advance lists panned out in the past, you can see the posts from one year ago, two years ago, and three years ago.
One thing that seems worth adding: the difference between the top 2 tiers of WRs all comes down to size. All 5 of these guys have the production to be in the top tier. Jeudy, Johnson, and Wallace are undersized according to the last estimates that I looked up from draftscout (with BMI below 26.0), which is what puts them behind Shenault & Ross. To join the top tier they don't necessarily have to show more on the field, they could just step on a scale 10 months from now (and weight often goes up over a player's college career). If I was putting effort into devy projections (rather than just plugging numbers into the formulas that I use for rookies) then I would try to adjust more for that.
Similarly, from the third tier, Mooney, Lamb, Reagor, and Moore have the production to make the second tier and are just missing the (estimated) size. Though Moore is reportedly short as well as skinny, which it's harder to improve on.