ZWK
Footballguy
This thread is for my analysis of the 2025 draft class and other college players. Previously threads: 2024 draft class, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 WR & RB.
To start things off, here's a big ol' list of draft eligible WRs & TEs, sorted by career AYPRR. That's adjusted yards per route run, where adjusted yards means "receiving yards, plus a 10-yard bonus for each first down and a 15 yard bonus for each TD". In parentheses I've put the player's AYPT (adjusted yards per target). Average for a rd1-3 WR over the past several years is 3.75 AYPRR and 15.4 AYPT. I've also put an asterisk (*) for players with less than 500 career routes (that's bad), and I've bolded the players who will be power conference early declares if they enter the draft now (that's good).
4.61 Tez Johnson WR (15.2)
4.61 Tre Harris WR (16.6)
4.51 Harold Fannin Jr. TE (16.2)
4.45 Jayden Higgins WR (16.4)
4.22 Emeka Egbuka WR (16.4)
4.08 Ricky White WR (14.2)
3.89 Xavier Restrepo WR (16.3)
3.84 Nic Anderson WR (20.9) *
3.79 Brant Kuithe TE (14.4)
3.78 Tory Horton WR (14.6)
3.76 Jalen Royals WR (16.2)
[3.75 median rd1-3 WR (15.4)]
3.75 Travis Hunter WR (16.0)
3.70 Tetairoa McMillan WR (15.6)
3.62 Joey Hobert WR (14.2)
3.59 Luther Burden III WR (12.8)
3.56 Colston Loveland TE (13.7)
3.52 Eli Stowers TE (13.7) *
3.52 Zakhari Franklin WR (13.8)
3.51 Elijhah Badger WR (13.9)
3.51 Kobe Hudson WR (14.7)
3.43 Nick Nash WR (12.9)
3.41 Tyler Warren TE (15.6)
3.37 Pat Bryant WR (16.0)
3.34 Devonte Ross WR (13.1)
3.29 LaJohntay Wester WR (12.5)
3.29 Oronde Gadsden II TE (15.3)
3.28 Bryson Nesbit TE (14.7)
3.26 Roc Taylor WR (13.4)
3.26 Elic Ayomanor WR (13.1)
3.25 Ja'Corey Brooks WR (15.9)
3.22 Isaiah Neyor WR (14.6)
3.17 Jaylin Lane WR (13.6)
3.15 Daniel Jackson WR (12.2)
3.12 Dane Key WR (14.0)
3.11 Jaylin Noel WR (12.3)
3.08 Theo Wease WR (15.3)
2.98 Barion Brown WR (10.9)
2.97 Antwane Wells Jr. WR (14.9)
2.97 Tai Felton WR (13.4)
2.93 Matthew Golden WR (15.9)
2.92 Kyren Lacy WR (14.2)
2.91 Jack Bech WR (14.7)
2.81 Isaiah Bond WR (14.5)
2.73 Will Sheppard WR (12.4)
2.68 Moose Muhammad III WR (15.6)
2.68 Evan Stewart WR (11.8)
2.59 Da'Quan Felton WR (11.5)
2.57 Bru McCoy WR (13.0)
2.56 Terrance Ferguson TE (14.2)
2.54 Beaux Collins WR (12.3)
2.52 Savion Williams WR (12.9)
2.49 Samuel Brown WR (13.2)
2.45 Mitchell Evans TE (14.3)
2.45 Kaden Prather WR (12.4)
2.41 Jalil Farooq WR (13.4)
2.40 Caden Prieskorn TE (17.3)
2.37 Jimmy Horn Jr. WR (12.7)
2.35 Rivaldo Fairweather TE (12.9)
2.27 Luke Lachey TE (12.8)
2.24 Benjamin Yurosek TE (13.3)
2.21 J.Michael Sturdivant WR (12.2)
2.14 Deion Burks WR (10.2)
2.14 Jake Briningstool TE (12.0)
2.11 Dillon Bell WR (12.1)
2.07 Oscar Delp TE (15.9) *
2.05 Gunnar Helm TE (16.3)
1.93 Julian Fleming WR (12.3)
1.79 Ty Robinson WR (11.5) *
1.77 Mason Taylor TE (11.7)
1.50 Jackson Hawes TE (13.6) *
These stats aren't perfect, e.g. I think Tet McMillan's numbers understate his production because about 1/3 of his routes came as a true freshman when he wasn't as much a focus of the offense, or as good. Playing a lot of snaps as a freshman is a better sign than being stuck on the bench but hurts his career per-route and per-target stats compared to other players who didn't win snaps as freshmen. Over the last 2 years McMillan has 4.34 AYPRR and 16.0 AYPT, and if he had seen the field less as a freshman his career numbers would be closer to that.
In contrast, Oklahoma WR Nic Anderson's asterisk is well-deserved - his good stats come from only 1 season of playing (he redshirted in 2022 and missed 2024 with injuries), which give him a tiny sample size (332 career routes & 61 career targets) and mean that he'll probably be returning to school.
There are zero super-clean profiles here - early declare, Power conference, 500+ career routes with above median AYPRR & AYPT. McMillan & Travis Hunter are right on the edge, at least, and at this point I think they're my top 2 WRs in this class (though it's unclear how much wide receiver Hunter will play in the NFL). Small school players generally had less competition from teammates for snaps & targets and weaker opposition (and there's a question of why they didn't go to a better school), older players have stats that reflect what they did at age 21+ (and a question of why they didn't enter the draft sooner), and small sample size stats are noisier and could be good based on random variation rather than ability (and there's a question of why they didn't play more).
I've posted some other WR+TE stats for this class on Twitter in graph form, and here in spreadsheet form. Not sure if images work on the forum - if so I'll post some graphs here at some point, if not I'll have to stick to lists & links.
To start things off, here's a big ol' list of draft eligible WRs & TEs, sorted by career AYPRR. That's adjusted yards per route run, where adjusted yards means "receiving yards, plus a 10-yard bonus for each first down and a 15 yard bonus for each TD". In parentheses I've put the player's AYPT (adjusted yards per target). Average for a rd1-3 WR over the past several years is 3.75 AYPRR and 15.4 AYPT. I've also put an asterisk (*) for players with less than 500 career routes (that's bad), and I've bolded the players who will be power conference early declares if they enter the draft now (that's good).
4.61 Tez Johnson WR (15.2)
4.61 Tre Harris WR (16.6)
4.51 Harold Fannin Jr. TE (16.2)
4.45 Jayden Higgins WR (16.4)
4.22 Emeka Egbuka WR (16.4)
4.08 Ricky White WR (14.2)
3.89 Xavier Restrepo WR (16.3)
3.84 Nic Anderson WR (20.9) *
3.79 Brant Kuithe TE (14.4)
3.78 Tory Horton WR (14.6)
3.76 Jalen Royals WR (16.2)
[3.75 median rd1-3 WR (15.4)]
3.75 Travis Hunter WR (16.0)
3.70 Tetairoa McMillan WR (15.6)
3.62 Joey Hobert WR (14.2)
3.59 Luther Burden III WR (12.8)
3.56 Colston Loveland TE (13.7)
3.52 Eli Stowers TE (13.7) *
3.52 Zakhari Franklin WR (13.8)
3.51 Elijhah Badger WR (13.9)
3.51 Kobe Hudson WR (14.7)
3.43 Nick Nash WR (12.9)
3.41 Tyler Warren TE (15.6)
3.37 Pat Bryant WR (16.0)
3.34 Devonte Ross WR (13.1)
3.29 LaJohntay Wester WR (12.5)
3.29 Oronde Gadsden II TE (15.3)
3.28 Bryson Nesbit TE (14.7)
3.26 Roc Taylor WR (13.4)
3.26 Elic Ayomanor WR (13.1)
3.25 Ja'Corey Brooks WR (15.9)
3.22 Isaiah Neyor WR (14.6)
3.17 Jaylin Lane WR (13.6)
3.15 Daniel Jackson WR (12.2)
3.12 Dane Key WR (14.0)
3.11 Jaylin Noel WR (12.3)
3.08 Theo Wease WR (15.3)
2.98 Barion Brown WR (10.9)
2.97 Antwane Wells Jr. WR (14.9)
2.97 Tai Felton WR (13.4)
2.93 Matthew Golden WR (15.9)
2.92 Kyren Lacy WR (14.2)
2.91 Jack Bech WR (14.7)
2.81 Isaiah Bond WR (14.5)
2.73 Will Sheppard WR (12.4)
2.68 Moose Muhammad III WR (15.6)
2.68 Evan Stewart WR (11.8)
2.59 Da'Quan Felton WR (11.5)
2.57 Bru McCoy WR (13.0)
2.56 Terrance Ferguson TE (14.2)
2.54 Beaux Collins WR (12.3)
2.52 Savion Williams WR (12.9)
2.49 Samuel Brown WR (13.2)
2.45 Mitchell Evans TE (14.3)
2.45 Kaden Prather WR (12.4)
2.41 Jalil Farooq WR (13.4)
2.40 Caden Prieskorn TE (17.3)
2.37 Jimmy Horn Jr. WR (12.7)
2.35 Rivaldo Fairweather TE (12.9)
2.27 Luke Lachey TE (12.8)
2.24 Benjamin Yurosek TE (13.3)
2.21 J.Michael Sturdivant WR (12.2)
2.14 Deion Burks WR (10.2)
2.14 Jake Briningstool TE (12.0)
2.11 Dillon Bell WR (12.1)
2.07 Oscar Delp TE (15.9) *
2.05 Gunnar Helm TE (16.3)
1.93 Julian Fleming WR (12.3)
1.79 Ty Robinson WR (11.5) *
1.77 Mason Taylor TE (11.7)
1.50 Jackson Hawes TE (13.6) *
These stats aren't perfect, e.g. I think Tet McMillan's numbers understate his production because about 1/3 of his routes came as a true freshman when he wasn't as much a focus of the offense, or as good. Playing a lot of snaps as a freshman is a better sign than being stuck on the bench but hurts his career per-route and per-target stats compared to other players who didn't win snaps as freshmen. Over the last 2 years McMillan has 4.34 AYPRR and 16.0 AYPT, and if he had seen the field less as a freshman his career numbers would be closer to that.
In contrast, Oklahoma WR Nic Anderson's asterisk is well-deserved - his good stats come from only 1 season of playing (he redshirted in 2022 and missed 2024 with injuries), which give him a tiny sample size (332 career routes & 61 career targets) and mean that he'll probably be returning to school.
There are zero super-clean profiles here - early declare, Power conference, 500+ career routes with above median AYPRR & AYPT. McMillan & Travis Hunter are right on the edge, at least, and at this point I think they're my top 2 WRs in this class (though it's unclear how much wide receiver Hunter will play in the NFL). Small school players generally had less competition from teammates for snaps & targets and weaker opposition (and there's a question of why they didn't go to a better school), older players have stats that reflect what they did at age 21+ (and a question of why they didn't enter the draft sooner), and small sample size stats are noisier and could be good based on random variation rather than ability (and there's a question of why they didn't play more).
I've posted some other WR+TE stats for this class on Twitter in graph form, and here in spreadsheet form. Not sure if images work on the forum - if so I'll post some graphs here at some point, if not I'll have to stick to lists & links.
Last edited: