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Assani's Poker Thread (3 Viewers)

RedRaiders said:
Assani> I've heard of a couple books in Vegas offering -105 on NFL sides. With the amount you're currently betting (i.e. you won't be shutout if you win and take advantage of the reduced vig) you should take a look at what they have to offer line-wise. I can't access Las Vegas Advisors website to get the exact names for you but I believe they are out there.
Yeah I heard that the Stratosphere(sp?) offers -105, so I'll probably go there.
 
On the turn, the pot is $95 and You have $205 behind. If you can fold to a raise, betting is a mistake. There's way too much money in the pot compared to what you have left to bet-fold. Bet-call, check-call, and check-fold are all better options. My preference would be to bet-call against this villian as your description doesn't look laggy enough to make check-calling better. I'd eliminate check-folding because, after only calling the flop, his range is too wide, the pot's too big, and the turn card too much of a blank to just give up.
I'm really not sure I agree with your general point, but I'm willing to listen to your reasoning and hear what others have to say. So if the pot is 1/2 your stack and you wouldn't call an all in, then you'd never bet out?
 
Gambino said:
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :moneybag:
I realize I'm being lazy by not searching myself, but do you have any links to any really good sports betting posts by him?
 
MarshallPlan said:
Gambino said:
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :thumbup:
This guy knows things. :thumbup:
Oh I didn't see you were here in the thread. Ok, some questions for you:1. Please just give me any general advice2. Is NFL betting in your opinion beatable? I mean, theres clearly no secrets about these games and even people that know a ton about it seem to struggle with it? Moreover the fluky nature of the NFL certainly makes things tough.3. Same question regarding the NBA. I'm a huge fan and I follow it very closely(closer than NFL even), so if theres one sport that I have an edge its probably here....but I have no experience betting it, so I probably will just place bets in my head for the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for it.4. What separates the long term winners from the losers in sports betting? Is it knowledge of the game or does it more have to do with a good gambling sense?5. Are you a big winner overall? I'm interested in hearing your story and background.
 
tmc94 said:
Vegas Day #1: August 27, 2007

Hand of the day:

Villian in the hand has shown ability to bluff in variety of ways(he had fired at multiple streets with one bluff, and he had called the flop with the intention of bluffing on a later street also). He also made what I considered a very good value bet on one river when he was last to act when I think a lot of players would've just checked to show it down. A solid overall player in my opinion. Not perfect, but his mistakes were small enough that I'd expect him to be a big winner at most $1/3 games.

I get 8Ts in MP/LP. I have around $525, villian has me covered.I hadn't been very active recently. I raised it to $12. LP and SB called me. Flop came 69K rainbow. I make a standard continuation bet(around $17 I think but not sure). LP calls me, SB folds. Turn brings the miracle 7. There were now two of one suit on the board(not my suit). Whats your play?

What I did:

I checked, he bet around $30, I raised to around $70, he folded.
Don't like this play at all. You may have won an extra $30 from him if he was calling the flop with the intention of bluffing the turn. But he may also have been planning on raising you on the turn. You have the nuts. When you have the nuts, you should be trying to play a big hand. The way you played it completely eliminates that possibility against a good opponent. Just bet it.
yeah I think you're right here.
 
Cavalier said:
Assani, do you have any info on where some good Stud H/L 8 or better games are?
sorry, no clue man. I would do this if I were you:1. Check out allvegaspoker.com. Perhaps register for their message board and ask there.2. Ask the B&M forum on twoplustwo.3. Ask the stud8 forum on twoplustwo.I crosspost these daily blogs on allvegaspoker, and its a really nice and friendly community there(much more civil than 2p2 for sure). I recently posted a similar question to yours except regarding omaha8 on twoplustwo in the O8 forum and got some good replies, so thats why I suggest that.
 
MarshallPlan said:
Gambino said:
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :thumbup:
This guy knows things. :thumbup:
Oh I didn't see you were here in the thread. Ok, some questions for you:1. Please just give me any general advice2. Is NFL betting in your opinion beatable? I mean, theres clearly no secrets about these games and even people that know a ton about it seem to struggle with it? Moreover the fluky nature of the NFL certainly makes things tough.3. Same question regarding the NBA. I'm a huge fan and I follow it very closely(closer than NFL even), so if theres one sport that I have an edge its probably here....but I have no experience betting it, so I probably will just place bets in my head for the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for it.4. What separates the long term winners from the losers in sports betting? Is it knowledge of the game or does it more have to do with a good gambling sense?5. Are you a big winner overall? I'm interested in hearing your story and background.
Assani, if I could give you one piece of advice it would be to not bet on the NFL. Give this a try....take 2-3 weeks and just try to pick the winners outright. Just take the entire week's games and forget about point spreads and see how many winners you can pick. After 2-3 weeks take a look and see how you have done. That will tell you plenty about trying to win betting on the NFL.
 
On the turn, the pot is $95 and You have $205 behind. If you can fold to a raise, betting is a mistake. There's way too much money in the pot compared to what you have left to bet-fold. Bet-call, check-call, and check-fold are all better options. My preference would be to bet-call against this villian as your description doesn't look laggy enough to make check-calling better. I'd eliminate check-folding because, after only calling the flop, his range is too wide, the pot's too big, and the turn card too much of a blank to just give up.
I'm really not sure I agree with your general point, but I'm willing to listen to your reasoning and hear what others have to say. So if the pot is 1/2 your stack and you wouldn't call an all in, then you'd never bet out?
To be clear, it's not just that the pot is half my stack, it's that the pot is half of the effective stacks (he's got you covered). Why build a big pot (mesured by what's left in your stack) just to fold? That's highly exploitable and, because the reward is big, encourages your opponent to take shots at you, either semi or pure bluffing. If your opponent is reliable enough that bet-folding is right in this spot, then there are cheaper (higher EV) ways to play the hand and/or figure out that you're beat. That turn didn't change a lot of hands from behind to ahead (87 and 66) and there's the question of whether those are fully within his range when he calls the flop. If they are, other pairs must be there, too, and hands with a T. Bet-folding essentially assumes that he knows your hand *and* that he's raising mostly hands that beat you and few hands that you're well ahead of *even though he knows what you have*.

 
MarshallPlan said:
Gambino said:
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :thumbup:
This guy knows things. :thumbup:
Oh I didn't see you were here in the thread. Ok, some questions for you:1. Please just give me any general advice2. Is NFL betting in your opinion beatable? I mean, theres clearly no secrets about these games and even people that know a ton about it seem to struggle with it? Moreover the fluky nature of the NFL certainly makes things tough.3. Same question regarding the NBA. I'm a huge fan and I follow it very closely(closer than NFL even), so if theres one sport that I have an edge its probably here....but I have no experience betting it, so I probably will just place bets in my head for the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for it.4. What separates the long term winners from the losers in sports betting? Is it knowledge of the game or does it more have to do with a good gambling sense?5. Are you a big winner overall? I'm interested in hearing your story and background.
Assani, if I could give you one piece of advice it would be to not bet on the NFL. Give this a try....take 2-3 weeks and just try to pick the winners outright. Just take the entire week's games and forget about point spreads and see how many winners you can pick. After 2-3 weeks take a look and see how you have done. That will tell you plenty about trying to win betting on the NFL.
First of all, don't do the above. Secondly, the NFL is beatable, I was up over 55% last year and I'm over that mark thus far this year. Last week was a great example of why the NFL is beatable and why many people did poorly yet I killed it. First, focus on underdogs and preferably the ones the general public thinks are bad bets. Last week there were plenty - Tampa, Wash, Cleveland, etc. This is where you are going to make your money.You need to get familiar with how sports betting is simply all about numbers in order to win. That's the easiest way to win, IMO. Other people think they can "pick" their way to winning seasons, I think that's difficult. Learn which is better, +13 -110 or +12.5 +100? Learn how to read lines and predict line moves. The long term winners take the best number available and don't take bad numbers. For example I took Cleveland +6.5 +119 instead of +7 -110. It's the little things like this that add up in the longrun.You don't have a lot of time in the day to study line moves and read the market, so my best advice to you is to simply look at the teams that are underdogs and not expected to cover and play them. This week, there are plenty - Buffalo, Minny, Cleveland, NYG, etc. FYI, when Gambino posted that he was joking. ;)
 
MarshallPlan said:
Gambino said:
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :bag:
This guy knows things. :)
Oh I didn't see you were here in the thread. Ok, some questions for you:1. Please just give me any general advice2. Is NFL betting in your opinion beatable? I mean, theres clearly no secrets about these games and even people that know a ton about it seem to struggle with it? Moreover the fluky nature of the NFL certainly makes things tough.3. Same question regarding the NBA. I'm a huge fan and I follow it very closely(closer than NFL even), so if theres one sport that I have an edge its probably here....but I have no experience betting it, so I probably will just place bets in my head for the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for it.4. What separates the long term winners from the losers in sports betting? Is it knowledge of the game or does it more have to do with a good gambling sense?5. Are you a big winner overall? I'm interested in hearing your story and background.
Assani, if I could give you one piece of advice it would be to not bet on the NFL. Give this a try....take 2-3 weeks and just try to pick the winners outright. Just take the entire week's games and forget about point spreads and see how many winners you can pick. After 2-3 weeks take a look and see how you have done. That will tell you plenty about trying to win betting on the NFL.
First of all, don't do the above. Secondly, the NFL is beatable, I was up over 55% last year and I'm over that mark thus far this year. Last week was a great example of why the NFL is beatable and why many people did poorly yet I killed it. First, focus on underdogs and preferably the ones the general public thinks are bad bets. Last week there were plenty - Tampa, Wash, Cleveland, etc. This is where you are going to make your money.You need to get familiar with how sports betting is simply all about numbers in order to win. That's the easiest way to win, IMO. Other people think they can "pick" their way to winning seasons, I think that's difficult. Learn which is better, +13 -110 or +12.5 +100? Learn how to read lines and predict line moves. The long term winners take the best number available and don't take bad numbers. For example I took Cleveland +6.5 +119 instead of +7 -110. It's the little things like this that add up in the longrun.You don't have a lot of time in the day to study line moves and read the market, so my best advice to you is to simply look at the teams that are underdogs and not expected to cover and play them. This week, there are plenty - Buffalo, Minny, Cleveland, NYG, etc. FYI, when Gambino posted that he was joking. :unsure:
Why not do the above? Ok, try this then....pick games that you like, i.e. that you would bet on. Eliminate the spread and just pick the winner of the game outright. See how you do. Look, betting on the NFL is for suckers IMO. Also, absolutely do NOT bet on NBA basketball....are you out of your mind?? If you want to bet on sports...college football is the way to go.
 
On the turn, the pot is $95 and You have $205 behind. If you can fold to a raise, betting is a mistake. There's way too much money in the pot compared to what you have left to bet-fold. Bet-call, check-call, and check-fold are all better options. My preference would be to bet-call against this villian as your description doesn't look laggy enough to make check-calling better. I'd eliminate check-folding because, after only calling the flop, his range is too wide, the pot's too big, and the turn card too much of a blank to just give up.
I'm really not sure I agree with your general point, but I'm willing to listen to your reasoning and hear what others have to say. So if the pot is 1/2 your stack and you wouldn't call an all in, then you'd never bet out?
To be clear, it's not just that the pot is half my stack, it's that the pot is half of the effective stacks (he's got you covered). Why build a big pot (mesured by what's left in your stack) just to fold? That's highly exploitable and, because the reward is big, encourages your opponent to take shots at you, either semi or pure bluffing. If your opponent is reliable enough that bet-folding is right in this spot, then there are cheaper (higher EV) ways to play the hand and/or figure out that you're beat. That turn didn't change a lot of hands from behind to ahead (87 and 66) and there's the question of whether those are fully within his range when he calls the flop. If they are, other pairs must be there, too, and hands with a T. Bet-folding essentially assumes that he knows your hand *and* that he's raising mostly hands that beat you and few hands that you're well ahead of *even though he knows what you have*.
Have you read Professional No Limit Hold'em?
 
Rock Lonemilk said:
bostonfred said:
Have you read Professional No Limit Hold'em?
I'm still amazed that there hasn't been any discussion of this book here.
It's football season, so poker interest generally drops off here. Probably less so now that there are more poker players and the long time posters here are starting to cool off on fantasy football talk. I think it's a very good book, but it's a long read to be such a one trick pony. The whole premise is a long winder explanation of a single ratio, and they're going to squeeze a second book out of it. It's a very useful ratio, and it could arguably be revolutionary, but I couldn't help but wonder if there was going to be anything else.
 
bostonfred said:
munga30 said:
Assani Fisher said:
munga30 said:
On the turn, the pot is $95 and You have $205 behind. If you can fold to a raise, betting is a mistake. There's way too much money in the pot compared to what you have left to bet-fold. Bet-call, check-call, and check-fold are all better options. My preference would be to bet-call against this villian as your description doesn't look laggy enough to make check-calling better. I'd eliminate check-folding because, after only calling the flop, his range is too wide, the pot's too big, and the turn card too much of a blank to just give up.
I'm really not sure I agree with your general point, but I'm willing to listen to your reasoning and hear what others have to say. So if the pot is 1/2 your stack and you wouldn't call an all in, then you'd never bet out?
To be clear, it's not just that the pot is half my stack, it's that the pot is half of the effective stacks (he's got you covered). Why build a big pot (mesured by what's left in your stack) just to fold? That's highly exploitable and, because the reward is big, encourages your opponent to take shots at you, either semi or pure bluffing. If your opponent is reliable enough that bet-folding is right in this spot, then there are cheaper (higher EV) ways to play the hand and/or figure out that you're beat. That turn didn't change a lot of hands from behind to ahead (87 and 66) and there's the question of whether those are fully within his range when he calls the flop. If they are, other pairs must be there, too, and hands with a T. Bet-folding essentially assumes that he knows your hand *and* that he's raising mostly hands that beat you and few hands that you're well ahead of *even though he knows what you have*.
Have you read Professional No Limit Hold'em?
does it show? I freely admit that I have no original thoughts.
 
babehound37 said:
MarshallPlan said:
MarshallPlan said:
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :pickle:
This guy knows things. :wub:
Oh I didn't see you were here in the thread. Ok, some questions for you:1. Please just give me any general advice2. Is NFL betting in your opinion beatable? I mean, theres clearly no secrets about these games and even people that know a ton about it seem to struggle with it? Moreover the fluky nature of the NFL certainly makes things tough.3. Same question regarding the NBA. I'm a huge fan and I follow it very closely(closer than NFL even), so if theres one sport that I have an edge its probably here....but I have no experience betting it, so I probably will just place bets in my head for the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for it.4. What separates the long term winners from the losers in sports betting? Is it knowledge of the game or does it more have to do with a good gambling sense?5. Are you a big winner overall? I'm interested in hearing your story and background.
Assani, if I could give you one piece of advice it would be to not bet on the NFL. Give this a try....take 2-3 weeks and just try to pick the winners outright. Just take the entire week's games and forget about point spreads and see how many winners you can pick. After 2-3 weeks take a look and see how you have done. That will tell you plenty about trying to win betting on the NFL.
First of all, don't do the above. Secondly, the NFL is beatable, I was up over 55% last year and I'm over that mark thus far this year. Last week was a great example of why the NFL is beatable and why many people did poorly yet I killed it. First, focus on underdogs and preferably the ones the general public thinks are bad bets. Last week there were plenty - Tampa, Wash, Cleveland, etc. This is where you are going to make your money.You need to get familiar with how sports betting is simply all about numbers in order to win. That's the easiest way to win, IMO. Other people think they can "pick" their way to winning seasons, I think that's difficult. Learn which is better, +13 -110 or +12.5 +100? Learn how to read lines and predict line moves. The long term winners take the best number available and don't take bad numbers. For example I took Cleveland +6.5 +119 instead of +7 -110. It's the little things like this that add up in the longrun.You don't have a lot of time in the day to study line moves and read the market, so my best advice to you is to simply look at the teams that are underdogs and not expected to cover and play them. This week, there are plenty - Buffalo, Minny, Cleveland, NYG, etc. FYI, when Gambino posted that he was joking. :blackdot:
Why not do the above? Ok, try this then....pick games that you like, i.e. that you would bet on. Eliminate the spread and just pick the winner of the game outright. See how you do. Look, betting on the NFL is for suckers IMO. Also, absolutely do NOT bet on NBA basketball....are you out of your mind?? If you want to bet on sports...college football is the way to go.
I'm interested in your personal experience when it comes to sports betting. How many years did you bet sports actively to reach these conclusions?
 
Even though I've been a member of this site dating back to cheatsheets.net, I have kind of slept on the FFA forum.

I'm just noticing that there is a lot of poker content, and this thread in particular is awesome. :thumbup:

Assani, congrats on going pro. I made the leap in January 2006 and it's the best decision I ever made. Best of luck to you from one pro poker blogger (see link in my sig) to another. See ya at the tables!

 
Assani, if I could give you one piece of advice it would be to not bet on the NFL. Give this a try....take 2-3 weeks and just try to pick the winners outright. Just take the entire week's games and forget about point spreads and see how many winners you can pick. After 2-3 weeks take a look and see how you have done. That will tell you plenty about trying to win betting on the NFL.
The nfl is definitely beatable if you have the intelligence, drive, and work ethic, but there are numerous pitfalls. Here are some of the most common ones:-- Betting too many games. Most nfl lines are extremely accurate. The trick is to find the sides and totals of games that are off enough that making a wager on them is +EV. If you're routinely betting sides on around half the games every week, for example, you'll definitely be a longterm loser.-- Poor bankroll management. This is a huge one. You should never be putting a large % of your bankroll on any one game. How many times have you seen someone make a large bet on MNF after having a bad Sunday, trying to dig themselves out of a hole? You need to have discipline. For every season, you should figure out how much $$ you are going to bet per unit, and stick to it. It's not uncommon to see someone run hot for the first month or so, then raise the size of their bets by 2x, 3x, etc., and get wiped out in a week or 2. Having a unit = 2% of your bankroll is pretty reasonable, imo.-- Getting Emotional. Think of the Gordon Gekko line in Wall St. This is an extremely common problem -- bettors letting emotions affect their decision making, rather than using sound, logical, and fundamental analysis of games to make +EV wagers. There are countless examples of this.-- Poor Understanding of Variance. Most bettors don't understand the extreme variance when it comes to handicapping the nfl. There's no such thing as a lock. Nothing is 100% guaranteed. The saying "Any team can win on any given Sunday" may sound cliche, but it's definitely true. IMO, about 50% of the outcomes of nfl games (with regards to handicapping) are due to luck. Which means theoretically over the long run, you're going to win 25% of the games you play, and lose 25% of the games you play, no matter how good or bad you are. When you factor in the juice, this means everyone should theoretically be a slight loser over the long run for half of the games they bet.What determines whether you are an overall winner or loser is your handicapping ability with regards to the other 50% of the games you play. You need to have an overall winrate of around 53% or more to be a longterm winner, so do the math, and you can see it's not easy. Being a winning sports bettor, is in fact very hard work.
 
Big Sug said:
Even though I've been a member of this site dating back to cheatsheets.net, I have kind of slept on the FFA forum.I'm just noticing that there is a lot of poker content, and this thread in particular is awesome. :popcorn: Assani, congrats on going pro. I made the leap in January 2006 and it's the best decision I ever made. Best of luck to you from one pro poker blogger (see link in my sig) to another. See ya at the tables!
:thumbup:Welcome bro. I'll be joining the fold Feb. 1. Where you living? Vegas or AC? Looking quickly at your blog, I noticed a lot about the Borgata, hence the question.
 
Assani- if you ever need any advice on sports wagering, just check with MarshallPlan. Guy knows EVERYTHING there is to know about sports wagering :thumbup:
This guy knows things. :thumbup:
Oh I didn't see you were here in the thread. Ok, some questions for you:1. Please just give me any general advice2. Is NFL betting in your opinion beatable? I mean, theres clearly no secrets about these games and even people that know a ton about it seem to struggle with it? Moreover the fluky nature of the NFL certainly makes things tough.3. Same question regarding the NBA. I'm a huge fan and I follow it very closely(closer than NFL even), so if theres one sport that I have an edge its probably here....but I have no experience betting it, so I probably will just place bets in my head for the first few weeks of the season to get a feel for it.4. What separates the long term winners from the losers in sports betting? Is it knowledge of the game or does it more have to do with a good gambling sense?5. Are you a big winner overall? I'm interested in hearing your story and background.
Assani, if I could give you one piece of advice it would be to not bet on the NFL. Give this a try....take 2-3 weeks and just try to pick the winners outright. Just take the entire week's games and forget about point spreads and see how many winners you can pick. After 2-3 weeks take a look and see how you have done. That will tell you plenty about trying to win betting on the NFL.
First of all, don't do the above. Secondly, the NFL is beatable, I was up over 55% last year and I'm over that mark thus far this year. Last week was a great example of why the NFL is beatable and why many people did poorly yet I killed it. First, focus on underdogs and preferably the ones the general public thinks are bad bets. Last week there were plenty - Tampa, Wash, Cleveland, etc. This is where you are going to make your money.You need to get familiar with how sports betting is simply all about numbers in order to win. That's the easiest way to win, IMO. Other people think they can "pick" their way to winning seasons, I think that's difficult. Learn which is better, +13 -110 or +12.5 +100? Learn how to read lines and predict line moves. The long term winners take the best number available and don't take bad numbers. For example I took Cleveland +6.5 +119 instead of +7 -110. It's the little things like this that add up in the longrun.You don't have a lot of time in the day to study line moves and read the market, so my best advice to you is to simply look at the teams that are underdogs and not expected to cover and play them. This week, there are plenty - Buffalo, Minny, Cleveland, NYG, etc. FYI, when Gambino posted that he was joking. :lmao:
Why not do the above? Ok, try this then....pick games that you like, i.e. that you would bet on. Eliminate the spread and just pick the winner of the game outright. See how you do. Look, betting on the NFL is for suckers IMO. Also, absolutely do NOT bet on NBA basketball....are you out of your mind?? If you want to bet on sports...college football is the way to go.
I'm interested in your personal experience when it comes to sports betting. How many years did you bet sports actively to reach these conclusions?
I have never gambled on the NFL extensively. I have made probably less than 200 bets on NFL games. This would be over a 10-15 year period. I have never placed a bet on the NBA. I just think the college game is possible to beat. I really dont think the pro game is beatable for the average gambler.
 
Welcome bro. I'll be joining the fold Feb. 1. Where you living? Vegas or AC? Looking quickly at your blog, I noticed a lot about the Borgata, hence the question.
thanks man.I live in NYC. I play a lot online, although not huge volume, and I travel the tourney circuit. I hit all the stuff on the east coast and of course the WSOP, as well as a few other Vegas tournies.Best of luck as a pro!
 
Welcome bro. I'll be joining the fold Feb. 1. Where you living? Vegas or AC? Looking quickly at your blog, I noticed a lot about the Borgata, hence the question.
thanks man.I live in NYC. I play a lot online, although not huge volume, and I travel the tourney circuit. I hit all the stuff on the east coast and of course the WSOP, as well as a few other Vegas tournies.

Best of luck as a pro!
Great stuff. Read a bit of your blog...Folks, we have a 2nd place finisher in the WSOP as a FBG...who knew, eh? :thumbup:

Awesome job and thanks for the PM back!

 
How big was his chip lead going into the hand, because had you won that hand it wouldn't have been the last?
I had roughly a 2-1 chip lead going into the hand. When the hand was over, he had roughly a 2-1 chip lead. I regrouped and fought back, then had aces cracked, and was rivered one last time as the coup-de-grace.wheeeee
 
Assani,

Since you don' answer your phone or check voicemail (or maybe I'm just ignored :confused: ), how's the house hunting going?

Where are you guys looking and what price range/what you looking to get?

 
From what I've read, housing prices in the Vegas area are slated to be dropping soon (because of the huge over-valued nature of the market). A lot of inventory was built and while the demand is there, the ability for some of the potential buyers to get a mortgage just got a lot tougher.

I think I read something like prices would drop about 10% this year in Vegas.

GLLLLLLLLLLL bro

 
From what I've read, housing prices in the Vegas area are slated to be dropping soon (because of the huge over-valued nature of the market). A lot of inventory was built and while the demand is there, the ability for some of the potential buyers to get a mortgage just got a lot tougher.

I think I read something like prices would drop about 10% this year in Vegas.

GLLLLLLLLLLL bro
God, I hope so :househuntingmuchsoonerthanexpected:
 
Assani,Since you don' answer your phone or check voicemail (or maybe I'm just ignored :rolleyes: ), how's the house hunting going?Where are you guys looking and what price range/what you looking to get?
LOL...sorry man...will call you back soon. Still in vacation houses now(our 3rd one)...waiting to see if Robert's girlfriend moves out here before we decide on a house.
 
Just some updates here:

9/18/07

4 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Stars(4 tables): -$39

4 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt(2 tables): -$152

9/19/07

3.5 hours of MTTs on PokerStars: +$322

2 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on PokerStars(3 tables): +$109

2 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt(1 table): +$75

3 hours of $1/2 NLHE at Wynn: -$599

9/20/07

Poker Stars Reload Bonus Offer: +$125

2 hours of MTTs on Poker Stars: -$81

2 hours of MTTs on Full Tilt: -$24

3 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Poker Stars(3 tables): -$278

3 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt: 1 table): -$375

9/21/07

2.5 hours of MTTs on PokerStars: -$224

2 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on PokerStars(3 tables): +$84

2 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt(1 table): +3

The Wynn session really sucked. King high flush ran into an ace high flush. It made it esepcially hard to get away from the hand because there was an ace on the board and he never bet his hand even though he had top pair and a flush draw(I was betting the entire time with my draw). I'm getting deep in several tournaments but losing just before the big money(final table), which sucks but I'm playing well so hopefully I'll break through soon.

Hand of the Day

$55 MTT. Less than 70 people left, 63 spots pay. You have around 30K in chips, which is near average meaning you should be able to coast to money if you wanted to play it safe. Two opponents both have you covered. Blinds are 600/1200 with an ante(forget how much).

You get JQs in MP/LP. Folded to you, and you raise to 3600. Button calls, BB calls. No major reads on either of them.

Flop comes J23 rainbow. BB checks, you bet $6000, button calls, BB folds.

Turn is a 3. You have about 20K left, button has you covered. Your move.

What I did

I bet 10K, he raised me all in, I called. He had TT, I won.

What I think I should've done

Tough spot. A mid pocket pair was definitely a possibility, but so was JK or AJ. In the end though, with the pot already pretty big, I think you simply have to play this aggressively and hope things go well. Sneaking into the money isn't something I really care too much about, so I'm not going to let that affect me too much here.

 
Ugh...

Sorry to hear about the bad run bro.

That said, if I may make a suggestion...

Why try to play in tougher games than you need to? Stay away from the Wynn.

Your home SHOULD be the MGM for 1-2 for the forseeable future. It's just painfully soft. I understand wanting variety, but bro, MONEY is the important thing here, right?

Good luck and return a phone call on occassion. :unsure:

 
Ugh...Sorry to hear about the bad run bro.That said, if I may make a suggestion...Why try to play in tougher games than you need to? Stay away from the Wynn.Your home SHOULD be the MGM for 1-2 for the forseeable future. It's just painfully soft. I understand wanting variety, but bro, MONEY is the important thing here, right?Good luck and return a phone call on occassion. :shrug:
I agree with Eddie, hit up MGM a lot and if you want something higher then look to Bellagio.
 
If I ever go broke again, then I'm getting a real job and quitting poker. But thats not going to happen, and I will be successful. I'm determined to make it happen. I'm positive that I could easily get people to back me right now and I could play much higher stakes- I have turned down offers for this already. Thats not what I want to do. I want to build up myself, and I want to do things the right way this time.
:thumbup:The 2 qualities you described are what will make you successful if it's to be:1. Determination not to fail, burning the bridge behind you, knowing that if you fail you'll lose being able to do what you love for a living.2. Not taking the easy way out, i.e. letting people bankroll you.Good luck, keep listening to advice from older guys who have already done what you are doing.
 
What's the oveall +/- since you moved out?
Not sure exactly...I'll total things up at the end of the month. August, for example, was +$1051(only a few days though since I got there right at the end). I'm positive that I'm up this month, but I don't think its that much(maybe like $1000 or $1500).
 
Alias said:
fasteddie_21 said:
Ugh...Sorry to hear about the bad run bro.That said, if I may make a suggestion...Why try to play in tougher games than you need to? Stay away from the Wynn.Your home SHOULD be the MGM for 1-2 for the forseeable future. It's just painfully soft. I understand wanting variety, but bro, MONEY is the important thing here, right?Good luck and return a phone call on occassion. :hophead:
I agree with Eddie, hit up MGM a lot and if you want something higher then look to Bellagio.
agreed. MGM and Venetian are my two favorite spots and will be where I play mostly for the next few weeks. I really don't like the Wynn much at all with the exception of the insane number of hot girls that are always there(both the cocktail waitresses and the hotel guests).
 
If I ever go broke again, then I'm getting a real job and quitting poker. But thats not going to happen, and I will be successful. I'm determined to make it happen. I'm positive that I could easily get people to back me right now and I could play much higher stakes- I have turned down offers for this already. Thats not what I want to do. I want to build up myself, and I want to do things the right way this time.
:hophead:The 2 qualities you described are what will make you successful if it's to be:1. Determination not to fail, burning the bridge behind you, knowing that if you fail you'll lose being able to do what you love for a living.2. Not taking the easy way out, i.e. letting people bankroll you.Good luck, keep listening to advice from older guys who have already done what you are doing.
thanks man.
 
Alias said:
fasteddie_21 said:
Ugh...Sorry to hear about the bad run bro.That said, if I may make a suggestion...Why try to play in tougher games than you need to? Stay away from the Wynn.Your home SHOULD be the MGM for 1-2 for the forseeable future. It's just painfully soft. I understand wanting variety, but bro, MONEY is the important thing here, right?Good luck and return a phone call on occassion. :)
I agree with Eddie, hit up MGM a lot and if you want something higher then look to Bellagio.
agreed. MGM and Venetian are my two favorite spots and will be where I play mostly for the next few weeks. I really don't like the Wynn much at all with the exception of the insane number of hot girls that are always there(both the cocktail waitresses and the hotel guests).
Yep the Wynn has some hotties. I got comped a dinner while I was out there and I sat at the bar of one of smaller restaurants they have there, but still pretty upscale. When I was talking with the bartender he said he has dated a few of them, I was like :goodposting: because I thought all of the cocktail waitresses were insanely hot and this guy was just your average joe. He said they are hot but are not very bright - I was like, "...and the problem with that is??". Definitely flirt with them and after they see you a few times and realize you are not a tourist throw your hat in the ring.
 
Playing in the WCOOP PLO8 event today, as well as the 2nd chance event that starts in an hour if anyone wants to sweat.

Update on the past few days coming soon....

 
First some updates:

9/22/07

13 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Poker Stars(4 tables): +$710

13 hours of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt(2 tables): +$715

9/23/07

3 NFL bets at Hilton: -$27

1 hour of $1/2 PLO8 on Poker Stars(3 tables): +$164

1 hour of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt(2 tables): -$21

1/2 hour of $1/2 NLHE on Poker Stars(10 tables): +$362

9/24/07

1 hour of $1/2 PLO8 on Poker Stars(3 tables): +$63

1 hour of $1/2 PLO8 on Full Tilt(3 tables): +$151

4 hours of $1/2 NLHE at MGM: +$80

Ok, so we have 2 big news items today, one bad and one good. But first let me brag that I'm down to 20% body fat from 22% 4 weeks. ago. Anyway, onto the poker news.....

My roomate Robert has decided to not stay in Vegas. He hasn't been doing well with poker and isn't happy here. This hurts me a lot. Financially, it hurts me because he owes me a decent amount of money and I was under the impression that I'd be getting it back any day now(I was actually supposed to have it before we even moved out here). Over 1/2 of my bankroll is now gone due to that. Moreover, I now have to pay for rent all by myself. I'm going to start looking into one bedroom apartments immediately, and if anyone knows of anything good in the Vegas area then let me know. Socially, its a bit tough since he was my only real friend out here so far, but I'm less concerned about this as I can meet people easily.

In a total coincidence, David Dodds(co-owner of footballguys) sent me a PM the very next day offering to stake me. I have been very clear that I didn't want to take the easy way out by being staked and that I wanted to build my bankroll up myself starting at the lower limits. However, I like David's offer due to a few reasons:

1. I'll be starting out at $1/2 NLHE online, so I don't think I'm "cheating" by being staked since I'm not jumping up in levels.

2. The situation with Robert calls for some drastic measures

3. It is a 100% risk free offer. He has bankrolled me about $2500 to start and if I lose then it is completely on him.

We're still ironing out the details, but it looks like its going to work. If I accept, then I may have to stop the daily updates here, as I don't want to publicly display any info without his permission. However, I'll still occassionally be playing live and I'll continue to post some hands and stories.

I'll be playing in the PLO8 WCOOP and 2nd chance event on the 25th, so I'll probably start playing under David either on the evening of the 25th or the morning of the 26th.

 
I wasn't sure if you were going to post about all that or not. I hope that you talked to Robert about what you and I spoke about.

Glad to hear that DD is working "with" you in some respect. Amanda and I have been concerned, so i'm really glad to hear this, GB.

Keep in touch and let me know how the housing situation is working out.

As an aside, I really think that you should be able to roll in the money at $1/$2NL online. I'm 6-tabling it and my hourly is in excess of $100/hr, so I think that you should be plenty fine.

Just know that you have a lot of support, both here and at 2p2 and if there's something I/we can help with, bro, let us know! :popcorn:

Good luck and kick ###!

 
Just to add since I received a PM regarding this:

I checked it with David beforehand, and he is fine with me publicly mentioning that hes staking me.

 

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