Debate the usefulness of pick value calculators. (1 Viewer)

Spinoff from this thread.

I contend that Pick Value Calculators are fundamentally flawed tools whose time has come. No matter how good the mathematical formula you base them off of, within just a couple of rounds they will cease to be accurate.

Consider the following: You think Larry Johnson is far and away the #1 player in fantasy football. The pick value calculator says that pick 1.01 would be worth 1900 points. Let's say that your draft opens up with Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, and Steve Smith going off the boards. You then want to know the value of pick 1.05. According to standard pick value calculators, pick 1.05 might be worth 1680. I disagree with that, and contend that pick 1.05 is every bit as valuable as pick 1.01 would have been, since both would have netted you the same player.

The same thing happens every single time a player begins to slide. If a player slides significantly beyond where your projections have him, then pick value calculators will undervalue every single pick. If they adjust to compensate for that phenomenon, and nobody slides, then suddenly the calculators are overvaluing every single pick.

Anyway, the whole point of the thread is to discuss just how valuable PVCs really are in real-world situations, and to discuss what alternate methods we use to evaluate picks (other than the good old "go with your gut" method).

Of course the value of a pick changes based on who's available. But you have to base the pick value on the information you have at the time the evaluation is done. The first pick holds value because you are guaranteed to get the guy you want. I think you are a little backwards here, in that if you think LJ is far and away the best guy, the number 1 pick holds more value for you.

The number 2 pick in the NFL draft because very valuable only AFTER Bush was still available. Before then, number 1 pick was more valuable.

Spinoff from this thread.

I contend that Pick Value Calculators are fundamentally flawed tools whose time has come. No matter how good the mathematical formula you base them off of, within just a couple of rounds they will cease to be accurate.

Consider the following: You think Larry Johnson is far and away the #1 player in fantasy football. The pick value calculator says that pick 1.01 would be worth 1900 points. Let's say that your draft opens up with Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson, Peyton Manning, and Steve Smith going off the boards. You then want to know the value of pick 1.05. According to standard pick value calculators, pick 1.05 might be worth 1680. I disagree with that, and contend that pick 1.05 is every bit as valuable as pick 1.01 would have been, since both would have netted you the same player.

The same thing happens every single time a player begins to slide. If a player slides significantly beyond where your projections have him, then pick value calculators will undervalue every single pick. If they adjust to compensate for that phenomenon, and nobody slides, then suddenly the calculators are overvaluing every single pick.

Anyway, the whole point of the thread is to discuss just how valuable PVCs really are in real-world situations, and to discuss what alternate methods we use to evaluate picks (other than the good old "go with your gut" method).

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It also depends on who your drafting with. In your scenario LJ going at #5?? Never happen, so yes if you do draft with a bunch of people that don't know what they are doing, a Pick Value Calculator, is not going to help you.

Every tool is flawed. It's up to its user to compensate for the flaws.

The flaw in a pick calculator is that no two drafts have the same level of talent, much less distributed the same way across the players in that draft. They also don't compensate for team needs or subjective evaluation of talent.

As long as a pick value calculator was based upon a retrospective view of what picks panned out at what spots, then it can be a useful tool. It's up to the owner to, for example, determine that there should be a lot of good strong safety prospects available in the 5th round and to therefore adjust the value of those picks upwards if that fits with his needs.

It is true that if you don't understand the data you're using, it's not very valuable.

The pick value calculator is not telling you that Larry Johnson is worth 200 "points" more than Shaun Alexander (or whatever). It's telling you that, based on historical data, pick 1.01 is worth 200 points more than pick 1.02. That's very useful if you're trading next year's draft picks and have no idea what players will be available at the time. It's also useful if you're trading lower-round picks and don't know what players will be available at the time. But if you're looking at a specific player, his value is not equivalent to what gets spit out of the pick value calculator; his value is his VBD number. Based on your projections, that may be more or less value than what the pick value calculator reports.

If you're on the clock, and you have Larry Johnson as the #1 overall pick, and someone offers you draft picks for your pick, you should be looking at LJ as having 1.01 value, no matter where you're drafting. And if you think he's worth more than the typical 1.01, you should bump up his value even more. And then you should consider the VBD dropoff between LJ and whoever you'll get in exchange.

The calculator is just a tool; use it properly.

I just had an experience where in a 16 team dynasty format I offered up in a rookie draft the trade of 1.7 (7) for 1.9 (9) and 2.1(17). Now he replies that the pick calculator says not to do the trade.

Now my point is this, I plugged in his own picks that he has... picks 9 and 17 in trade for #1. The calculator says #1 pick at 1889 pts is not enough value for those two picks at 2573 pts.

FBG ranks Cutler at 9 and Calhoun at 17. Are there really any people out there that would not trade 9 (Cutler) and 17 (Calhoun) for the #1 overall in Reggie Bush? I think it would be only a fractional minority.

The Calculator is a tool. It can add and subtract. It can not conduct abstract thought.



Kevin McBride

I just had an experience where in a 16 team dynasty format I offered up in a rookie draft the trade of 1.7 (7) for 1.9 (9) and 2.1(17). Now he replies that the pick calculator says not to do the trade.

Now my point is this, I plugged in his own picks that he has... picks 9 and 17 in trade for #1. The calculator says #1 pick at 1889 pts is not enough value for those two picks at 2573 pts.

FBG ranks Cutler at 9 and Calhoun at 17. Are there really any people out there that would not trade 9 (Cutler) and 17 (Calhoun) for the #1 overall in Reggie Bush? I think it would be only a fractional minority.

The Calculator is a tool. It can add and subtract. It can not conduct abstract thought.



Kevin McBride

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I don't think the Pick Value Calculator is accurate for dynasty leagues. The falloff in value is much steeper in rookie-only drafts.

I think that every pick calculator or NFL draft value chart is useful in one way only, and I will come to that later. But here is why I think that any mathematical formula used is instantly flawed...

1. Every single draft has different talent available at every position when compared to previous drafts. There comes a point, or in fact many points, in the draft when players at a position have extremely similar value or perceived value. If there are 20 RBs taken in the draft, their talent won't be nicely spaced out so that you can list them one to twenty. There might be three great ones that opinion is split on, a few average ones with a group within that tier that have almost exactly the same value. One year might have 6 cornerbacks with real ability that decide to join the league, the next year may only have two.

Example: If owners can't split LT, LJ and SA this year, their actual value may be almost identical. So the third pick has almost the same value as the first in their eyes.

2. Team needs and players already owned give players a different value for different teams. If you had owned Priest Holmes last year, Johnson's perceived value on draft day would have been higher for you as you would have the handcuff. Alternatively, if you draft three WRs in the first six picks and one remains with excellent value, your team has other needs compared to some of the others and would have less value for you.

3. How do you determine the best player anyway? If we are talking about the NFL Draft, which player at each position will go on to have the best career? Is an impact player that plays for three years better than a reliable one that plays for ten years? NFL draft history shows that the best players are not simply taken in order because nobody knows.

4. If you had a time machine and could see the statistics from 2006 before the draft, how would you rank the players? Even with all that information it would be impossible to value players accurately. Even if you could, you would need to know the rankings of every other owner so that you could calculate when to move to select the player you know will succeed.

There are many other factors such as which players will be hot in your league playoffs or divisional games when you need them most, but you probably get my point.

With all that in mind, the pick value calculator has definite value in one area that I can think of. Whether in the NFL Draft or a fantasy draft, teams or owners will value players differently and will often be looking to fill different needs than another owner. So the pick values are a good baseline to determine approximate value. You may value two WRs exactly the same but the other owner might covet one over the other. You can add a pick exchange in a later round and balance out the perceived value. Trades only happen because one person values a player differently from the next person. If you show an opponent that you are giving "fair value" it can encourage them to agree to the trade. But in general terms, I believe that the human mind is more adaptable and accurate than any formula because the values are forever changing from season to season.

I just had an experience where in a 16 team dynasty format I offered up in a rookie draft the trade of 1.7 (7) for 1.9 (9) and 2.1(17). Now he replies that the pick calculator says not to do the trade.

Now my point is this, I plugged in his own picks that he has... picks 9 and 17 in trade for #1. The calculator says #1 pick at 1889 pts is not enough value for those two picks at 2573 pts.

FBG ranks Cutler at 9 and Calhoun at 17. Are there really any people out there that would not trade 9 (Cutler) and 17 (Calhoun) for the #1 overall in Reggie Bush?  I think it would be only a fractional minority.

The Calculator is a tool. It can add and subtract. It can not conduct abstract thought.



Kevin McBride

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I don't think the Pick Value Calculator is accurate for dynasty leagues. The falloff in value is much steeper in rookie-only drafts.

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Unless you have an absolutely disastrous roster (like I did after inheriting a team 2 years ago), many if not most of your dynasty rookie picks won't even be on your roster come the start of the season.

I just had an experience where in a 16 team dynasty format I offered up in a rookie draft the trade of 1.7 (7) for 1.9 (9) and 2.1(17). Now he replies that the pick calculator says not to do the trade.

Now my point is this, I plugged in his own picks that he has... picks 9 and 17 in trade for #1. The calculator says #1 pick at 1889 pts is not enough value for those two picks at 2573 pts.

FBG ranks Cutler at 9 and Calhoun at 17. Are there really any people out there that would not trade 9 (Cutler) and 17 (Calhoun) for the #1 overall in Reggie Bush?  I think it would be only a fractional minority.

The Calculator is a tool. It can add and subtract. It can not conduct abstract thought.



Kevin McBride

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I don't think the Pick Value Calculator is accurate for dynasty leagues. The falloff in value is much steeper in rookie-only drafts.

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I agree with that entirely. Except I thought this was the NFL's pick calculator. Isn't that a Dynasy league? Curious and curiouser. It might have already been pointed out that this is a different calculator than the NFL one, in which case.... Nevermind

Kevin McBride

pick value calculators can help you ensure that your offers during drafts are "in the ballpark" - its sometimes difficult to estimate the conversion rate between moving up slot in the current round and moving down entire rounds later. Moving two slots up in the first is worth more than six slots in the third, and so on. Even if the formula is not exact, the framework helps provide a baseline for brokering deals.

That being said, you should never rely on pick value calculators to make the final decision on a trade. Trade up scenarios should go exactly as SSOG described. If you see a current player the board that you have ranked as far and away your best player left, its worth paying much more than the PVC tells you should you pay for the pick. Likewise, if you have seven players very equal at the top of your board, or if the top ranked player on your board is someone that youre relatively sure everyone else has significantly lower, then you should take less to move down than the PVC indicates.

It is true that if you don't understand the data you're using, it's not very valuable.

The pick value calculator is not telling you that Larry Johnson is worth 200 "points" more than Shaun Alexander (or whatever). It's telling you that, based on historical data, pick 1.01 is worth 200 points more than pick 1.02. That's very useful if you're trading next year's draft picks and have no idea what players will be available at the time. It's also useful if you're trading lower-round picks and don't know what players will be available at the time. But if you're looking at a specific player, his value is not equivalent to what gets spit out of the pick value calculator; his value is his VBD number. Based on your projections, that may be more or less value than what the pick value calculator reports.

If you're on the clock, and you have Larry Johnson as the #1 overall pick, and someone offers you draft picks for your pick, you should be looking at LJ as having 1.01 value, no matter where you're drafting. And if you think he's worth more than the typical 1.01, you should bump up his value even more. And then you should consider the VBD dropoff between LJ and whoever you'll get in exchange.

The calculator is just a tool; use it properly.

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Even in serpentine-draft leagues, I like to think of players in terms of their auction values. The value of the #6 pick is the auction value of the sixth-highest player. If the #2 guy slips to #6, then the #6 pick has the auction value of that guy.

Of course the value of a pick changes based on who's available. But you have to base the pick value on the information you have at the time the evaluation is done. The first pick holds value because you are guaranteed to get the guy you want. I think you are a little backwards here, in that if you think LJ is far and away the best guy, the number 1 pick holds more value for you.

The number 2 pick in the NFL draft because very valuable only AFTER Bush was still available. Before then, number 1 pick was more valuable.

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I understand that the pick value calculator is useful when making trades BEFORE the draft, when you don't know what scenario is going to play out. My contention is that once the draft rolls around, it becomes a fundamentally flawed tool. Obviously you agree with me, because you admit that once the Texans passed on Bush, the Saints draft pick became more valuable. Obviously that means the pick value calculator was no longer accurate- they could have traded the pick for more AFTER Williams got signed than they could BEFORE.

It also depends on who your drafting with. In your scenario LJ going at #5?? Never happen, so yes if you do draft with a bunch of people that don't know what they are doing, a Pick Value Calculator, is not going to help you.

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First off, I used Larry Johnson as an example because it very easily illustrated the point that I was trying to make. No matter WHO you draft with, you will *ALWAYS* see a point in the draft where a player slides far beyond where you had him valued at. Any time that happens, pick value calculators are no longer accurate.Second off, don't assume that if Johnson slides to 1.05, all drafters are idiots. I mean, what happens if the league offers a point per completion and 2 points per reception? In such a league, I could EASILY see Johnson sliding to 1.05 or later (Peyton Manning would probably be my pick at 1.01, and Antonio Gates would warrent very strong consideration at the top half of the 1st round). Scoring rules play a big factor in who gets drafted when.

It is true that if you don't understand the data you're using, it's not very valuable.

The pick value calculator is not telling you that Larry Johnson is worth 200 "points" more than Shaun Alexander (or whatever). It's telling you that, based on historical data, pick 1.01 is worth 200 points more than pick 1.02. That's very useful if you're trading next year's draft picks and have no idea what players will be available at the time. It's also useful if you're trading lower-round picks and don't know what players will be available at the time. But if you're looking at a specific player, his value is not equivalent to what gets spit out of the pick value calculator; his value is his VBD number. Based on your projections, that may be more or less value than what the pick value calculator reports.

If you're on the clock, and you have Larry Johnson as the #1 overall pick, and someone offers you draft picks for your pick, you should be looking at LJ as having 1.01 value, no matter where you're drafting. And if you think he's worth more than the typical 1.01, you should bump up his value even more. And then you should consider the VBD dropoff between LJ and whoever you'll get in exchange.

The calculator is just a tool; use it properly.

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I understand that it's a tool. I'm claiming that it was a flawed tool, and was hoping people would discuss better tools which they could use. For instance, instead of a standard pick value calculator, I could imagine a PVC that, if you were trading a pick 5 slots later and 50 slots later for the current pick, would compare the VBD of the best remaining player minus the VBD of the 5th best remaining player and the 45th best available player (to compensate for slidage), then multiply by a premium based on whether that pick would be a starter or not, and then produce a numerical result that would say whether the trade was beneficial or not.It's one thing to accept that a tool is fallible. It's quite another thing entirely to make no effort to come up with a better tool. Imagine if FBGs stopped updating the draft dominator because, while there were issues with it... well, it was just a tool, so use your common sense to compensate for those issues.

With all that in mind, the pick value calculator has definite value in one area that I can think of. Whether in the NFL Draft or a fantasy draft, teams or owners will value players differently and will often be looking to fill different needs than another owner. So the pick values are a good baseline to determine approximate value. You may value two WRs exactly the same but the other owner might covet one over the other. You can add a pick exchange in a later round and balance out the perceived value. Trades only happen because one person values a player differently from the next person. If you show an opponent that you are giving "fair value" it can encourage them to agree to the trade. But in general terms, I believe that the human mind is more adaptable and accurate than any formula because the values are forever changing from season to season.

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Good point. A PVC is a good tool to affect other owners' percieved value of a selection. That means that the most advantage would be gained by using an advanced PVC for your own projections and a fundamentally flawed PVC to show to your leaguemates to induce them to enter into a trade. Good discussion.

It's one thing to accept that a tool is fallible. It's quite another thing entirely to make no effort to come up with a better tool. Imagine if FBGs stopped updating the draft dominator because, while there were issues with it... well, it was just a tool, so use your common sense to compensate for those issues.

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A pick value calculator isn't a flawed tool, any more than three-year average is a flawed tool for making projections. It provides a data point; it's up to you to decide what the significance of that data point is.

It's one thing to accept that a tool is fallible. It's quite another thing entirely to make no effort to come up with a better tool. Imagine if FBGs stopped updating the draft dominator because, while there were issues with it... well, it was just a tool, so use your common sense to compensate for those issues.

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A pick value calculator isn't a flawed tool, any more than three-year average is a flawed tool for making projections. It provides a data point; it's up to you to decide what the significance of that data point is.

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Bingo.Also, if nothing else it provides peace of mind to players as most do not have much experience trading picks and just want to make sure they're not getting ripped off.

I only use the pick calculator when it says I should get more out of a trade that I'd make anyways. I send the other guy a link to the calculator and tell him I need more value.

I'm much more concerned with teirs. For example this year the I think the 4th overall is worth much less than the third, but the 2nd isn't worth that much less than the 1st in redraft leagues.

In dynasty it all depends on who's coming out. There are certainly years I'd value the 5th pick overall more than I'd value the 2nd in other years for example.

So I do look at it when considering a trade, but I only use it when I think it can pressure the other guy into giving up more. So I guess to me it's best use is it's misuse by other owners.

I only use the pick calculator when it says I should get more out of a trade that I'd make anyways. I send the other guy a link to the calculator and tell him I need more value.

I'm much more concerned with teirs. For example this year the I think the 4th overall is worth much less than the third, but the 2nd isn't worth that much less than the 1st in redraft leagues.

In dynasty it all depends on who's coming out. There are certainly years I'd value the 5th pick overall more than I'd value the 2nd in other years for example.

So I do look at it when considering a trade, but I only use it when I think it can pressure the other guy into giving up more. So I guess to me it's best use is it's misuse by other owners.

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It can also be used to encourage a trade you think is to your advantage even though the analyzer gives a sleight advantage to the other owner.IMO, the analyzer is a ball park tool to protect the clueless from a trade that could destroy confidence in a leagues sense that all owners can be competitive and not worry every year about awful trades with the same owners disrupting fair play for all.

Whether a shark uses it in the manners above doesn't necessarily mean the trade partner is getting screwed. It could also be win win based on need.