CR69
Footballguy
The biggest influence they've had on mortgage rates has been buying mortgage backed securities which has provided liquidity to the market. They do not control them though as you stated.
Last edited by a moderator:
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
How's your housing market? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter tommyGunZ
- Start date
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Me thinks some of you don’t really understand the Federal Reserve. I suggest you research more.
Mr.Pack
Footballguy
The market here is crazy. In my neighborhood houses are selling in less than a week. Two years ago my next door neighbor sold his house in a week, and I was shocked at what he got, was ready to sell then..... Two years later I'll be able to get $30k more than he sold his house for!
We bought this house in 2009 when the market crashed. Got it for $57k under what it was originally up for sale for. Turn around 9 years later and I'll be over what he was asking 9 years ago by $20k. It's crazy. Taking the money and running.
We bought this house in 2009 when the market crashed. Got it for $57k under what it was originally up for sale for. Turn around 9 years later and I'll be over what he was asking 9 years ago by $20k. It's crazy. Taking the money and running.
Sand
Footballguy
For a property I own over the last year they have had it priced about right, then down 40%, and now up 80%. So they've gotten the value of the house right twice for about a day each time.
not very accurate at all. It's an algorithm and they don't have great data, especially in non-disclosure states.
If the current Zestimate is right I'd be cashing out tomorrow.
The Ref
Footballguy
Really not into playing around with real estate at the minute but I overheard someone talking about the houses selling around me so I gave Zillow a look (for what's sold, not the zestimate). Good lord palm beach county is as hot as a pistol right now.
Back of the napkin my house is up almost 30 since I RE-fied 2 years ago.
Back of the napkin my house is up almost 30 since I RE-fied 2 years ago.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The lack of supply (inventory) on the market is a problem that is exponentially effecting the market. The lack of supply is actually causing a further lack of supply--because the people that might be possibly interested in selling are not able to find properties that they can move into for slightly/moderately more money. Basically the supply problem is further causing a bigger supply problem. Also--since many people have gotten into homes at low interest rates over the past years--selling those homes in order to pay a premium for a newer home at most likely a higher rate makes the price differential far more severe. Effectively in most cases the current market effectively makes it more motivating to renovate/revamp a current property than it does to sell and try to move upwards. Many of the people that are selling are basically selling properties in super heated markets and moving to markets that are less super heated. Trying to upgrade within the same market is pretty tough right now.
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
NYC started to crack down on this type of activity in 2016 for all-cash, LLC buyers of properties at $3 million and up. Apparently over a quarter of sales of that kind had possible links to criminal activity. There are more than a few loopholes, but there is a slowdown now in sales activity on the high end of the market.
Last edited by a moderator:
Zegras11
Footballguy
This is happening everywhere. I've been looking to upgrade to a home with a pool and/or RV garage. Just nothing has come up unless it's way over budget. We just finished putting new birch hardwood flooring on the entire downstairs and new, upgraded tile in master bath floor and shower. Both contractors said they are turning down numerous requests for work because they don't have the time.
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I moved 4 miles down the road to a bigger house. All good here but thanks for information.
Sheriff Bart
Footballguy
Prices are insane just about everywhere. The scary part is that all of the safe guards put in place to prevent another crisis have been signed away by the current administration via EO.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Theres an old saying that says that markets can be irrational longer than most people can be solvent. Our president is a real estate mogul. If the real estate market crashes the result will be that the super wealthy will have enough solvency to survive the drop and actually accumulate an even greater market share. No matter what the markets look like- be disciplined and have enough equity in your property (ies) so that you are insulated from any future market turmoil.
Last edited by a moderator:
Zegras11
Footballguy
Unpack this please. I sell homes to many first timers and I'm not seeing anything getting looser.
CR69
Footballguy
Mortgage bonds are up significantly over the past few days, what did the Fed do to cause this?
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah that is a bunch of horse #### misinformed news.
Mortgage guidelines are nothing....nothing like they were during the heyday of the early 2000's when it all came crashing down in 2007-2010.
The Federal government eased up some of the reserve requirements of smaller banks, local banks and community banks that were held to the same standards as these mega banks. Otherwise they are all going to shutter their doors and all you will have are these mega supermarket banks which were the main culprit in the financial markets meltdown. The key area's of the Dodd-Frank legislation are fully intact to help prevent another "to big to fail" event. And everyone seems to forget Bill Clinton ripped up Glass Steagall and opened the pandora's box for banks to become investment banks and get into the leveraged mess they did by packaging all the garbage loans they gave out....which AIG re-insured and almost had them on the brink of the biggest margin call in the history of our economy. What a massive mess it was. I thought the Treasury department (Giethner and Paulson in particular) are unfairly criticized. They saved the banking system. Otherwise without Tarp....I am too afraid to even say what would have happened.
In real estate news in my area, prices are getting stupid again. Things are going to level off and also correct in the next few years. No doubt. Especially with rising interest rates. a 10% correction short term is in order soon. But like always it will stabilize and then slowly move with the rate of inflation.
Last edited by a moderator:
Sand
Footballguy
True - 2008 had significant oversupply issues to go along with a credit bubble. We have another credit bubble currently, but housing supply is much, much tighter. I can see things softening/slumping, but I don't see a major crash at this point. The credit bubble is firmly in the student and car loan area.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
During Quantitative Easing, the Federal Reserve was purchasing $40BB in MBS every month. Now, the Fed is trying to normalize its monetary policy and are only buying bonds when the principal payments of those loans exceed certain cap amounts. So the buying of bonds has decreased dramatically in 2018, which probably nets out to more sellers than buyers (assuming here). Lower bond prices = higher rates and vice versa. The Fed directly and indirectly effects everything related to money, which includes interest rates of all kinds, and the prices for goods and services.
There may be better articles out there, but the quote below is taken from an article written in December, 2017:
Article link: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4131020-feds-tapering-means-mortgage-backed-securities
CR69
Footballguy
You just confirmed what I said earlier. I asked you why mortgage bonds are going up in the last few days and what the Fed is doing to cause that. Rates have dropped substantially in the last few days.
Last edited by a moderator:
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Ok. I thought you were talking about rates were going up so I was attempting to explain that. Maybe the last few days were buying days? I don't really think short-term fluctuations matter all that much. I don't follow mortgage bonds, what is the bigger trend? The point I'm trying to make is that if the Fed wants to increase the price of vehicles, or reduce mortgage rates, or increase the supply of available loans, or decrease the supply of USD or anything else related to money, the FED has the power to do that and can/will do that directly or indirectly. That's my only point. I'm not gonna try to be an expert in deciphering what direct actions caused what outcomes because it doesn't matter. Simply understanding their role and power is all you need to know. They control the currency, why are you finding it hard to make the connection?
CR69
Footballguy
You said they control interest rates. I said they influence them and that other factors are involved as well. You told me that I didn't understand the Federal Reserve. If they controlled mortgage interest rates, as you said, then they must have done something to cause the drop recently. Yes, it has been a buying market in mortgage bonds recently because of the volatility in the global markets. That's one of the other factors I was referring to.
I understand mortgages, secondary markets and rates very well. It's what I do during the day and I work on one of the highest producing teams in the country. I wasn't going to argue semantics, because I knew what you meant, until you basically told me that I don't know what I'm talking about and needed to do more research.
Rhythmdoctor
Footballguy
Fair enough. My bad for calling you out. Influence is probably the more accurate term to use. My only point is that if the Fed wants higher bond rates they have the leverage and resources to do that. The Fed does control all things related to money but as you are trying to point out, they don’t have a magic button to push for that. It requires direct and/or indirect manipulation of various markets. But if their intention is X, Y or Z, you better believe they will achieve it. We are at their mercy.
TripItUp
Footballguy
Here in North County San Diego, the first re-sell in our new-build subdivision sold for 38% above purchase price.(2 years later). We are just East of the 5.
On the other hand, other upscale areas such as Olivenhein and Rancho Santa Fe have seen a slew of homes go on the market. A lot of talk about affluent retirees fleeing CA anticipating housing prices cooling off.
On the other hand, other upscale areas such as Olivenhein and Rancho Santa Fe have seen a slew of homes go on the market. A lot of talk about affluent retirees fleeing CA anticipating housing prices cooling off.
Last edited by a moderator:
Mrs. Rannous
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
With near unanimity, whomever I've asked about this says its right around the corner.
OC Zed
Footballguy
OC Zed
Footballguy
This administration is a dumpster fire, but the roots of this bubble were sewn in the previous administration and none of the Trump deregulation did anything to necessarily prevent or exacerbate a market correction (but a market correction is a good thing in the long run). If anything, easing up on banks will give the financial sector more flexibility to withstand the next downturn. I’m in banking regulation & compliance, so this an area I follow closely.
Last edited by a moderator:
Median days on market in Denver for July was 7 days. Inventory still at record lows, avg list price is an 8% increase over last year. Waiting to see what August looks like, have seen more and more properties having to do reductions a little bit off their initial ask, but it's hard to tell if that is just seasonal slowdown and/or just isolated to a few greedy owners overpricing there homes. Avg length of time buyers are staying in houses continues to lengthen, my novice opinion is similar to reasons mentioned above by @jvdesigns2002, with increased interest rates and soaring prices no existing owners wants to give up that cheap mortgage on their current place. Money is easily available, I'd be interested in seeing numbers on the amount of HEL and HELOC debt being originated lately as people stay in their current home and tap their newfound equity that way. Lack of supply continues to be constrained because of this, but also anecdotally, I am seeing multi-hundred unit apartment and condo complex's going up at an alarming rate here in Denver which I think will ease some of the supply issues.
Been reading more and more some reports from other cities (most recently Memphis) where out of state buyers from places like California for example are dumping money hand over fist without really doing any due diligence. They are purchasing rentals from wholesalers and turnkey operators that are fixed up D class properties in D class neighborhoods (basically buying rehabbed crackhouses in ghetto's) thinking they are going to make a killing when it is them that will be getting killed at some point in the future when those tenants trash the place or stop paying their rent.
Been reading more and more some reports from other cities (most recently Memphis) where out of state buyers from places like California for example are dumping money hand over fist without really doing any due diligence. They are purchasing rentals from wholesalers and turnkey operators that are fixed up D class properties in D class neighborhoods (basically buying rehabbed crackhouses in ghetto's) thinking they are going to make a killing when it is them that will be getting killed at some point in the future when those tenants trash the place or stop paying their rent.
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I live in this community and just did a search because of this thread.
Blown away by the housing market and costs here. I always knew that many Detroit Tigers and RedWings lived around here had no idea half these homes even existed.
Blown away by the housing market and costs here. I always knew that many Detroit Tigers and RedWings lived around here had no idea half these homes even existed.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Buttonhook
Footballguy
I agree. To add to that, even the average Joe thinks this market has reached its peak and are likely planning for a downswing in prices/equity and an increase in interest rates, so they're hesitant to take a leap into a bigger mortgage payment, and are taking some money out now at lower prices.
Keerock
Footballguy
I live there as well, and the house I had built in 1999 is worth under what I paid for it then
(and would be on page 5)
Da Guru
Fair & Balanced
I did not know half these homes were around. Must be west on 7 and 8 mile.I live there as well, and the house I had built in 1999 is worth under what I paid for it then
Chadstroma
Footballguy
Bought in 2012 at $265K
Just got an appraisal for a 2nd we did. Came in at $376K.
For perspective, Zillow has it at $302K
Just got an appraisal for a 2nd we did. Came in at $376K.
For perspective, Zillow has it at $302K
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Rates looking like a breakout could be underway. Tide might be turning - rates rising aggressively could put pressure on home prices heading into 2019.
It’s been a sellers market for a few years, think the tide might start turning. See how the market holds up as the era of free money comes to a close.
It’s been a sellers market for a few years, think the tide might start turning. See how the market holds up as the era of free money comes to a close.
30 yr broke 5% today. To compare, it was at 4.5% about a month ago. Historically the housing market has cratered and a recession has occurred once interest rates rose 2% above the prior low. 5.5% would be the rate at which to start worrying (if the future is just like the past and we know how often things happen the exact same way right?)
Denver home sales dropped nearly 30% from August to September. Seasonally this is a slow down time, but that is a huge drop that can't be explained by just seasonality.
Denver home sales dropped nearly 30% from August to September. Seasonally this is a slow down time, but that is a huge drop that can't be explained by just seasonality.
Last edited by a moderator:
flapgreen
Footballguy
Going into winter is always slower, can't say I know all the %s, but I do know that most home sales are spring/summer. Just seems like so many homeowners are families, so moving after school ends and before the next year starts is much more common. Houses still seem to be going here in Charlotte, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's slowing a bit due to rates.
So funny that 5% is so historically low but it's talked about like it's awful. I'd almost think that the stock market dip may have had as big an effect as well, although it's halved the losses from the past couple weeks.
the rover
Footballguy
Seattle, which has been one of the hottest markets in the country, has seen a significant slowdown over the last month. Although homes are still not lasting on the market, they are selling at or below list price as opposed to the crazy bidding wars with waivers of inspection and appraisal.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
Things seem to still be overpriced here in the Philly area. I'm still waiting for the bubble to pop before I house shop again. I'm not going to overpay.
Your guess is as good as mine. Things are definitely changing out there though, avg sale price increases much more modest than prior years but the big thing is that inventory is up about 20% YOY. The reporters would want you to think is a catastrophy, but compared to historical norms the inventory on the market is still really low. However it is significantly higher than at any point in the last 4 years here in Denver. FWIW, I am hearing the same slow down and an inventory increase larger than normal seasonality is happening in Houston and bunch of other markets too.
The question is what is the market changing into? Are we heading back to a more balanced market instead of an extreme seller's market? Is it buyer fatigue? Short term concerns over the election or tariffs, rising rates, etc. before the hotness resumes in the spring? The precursor to the downturn some folks have been predicting every year for the last few years? IDK, smarter people than me puzzle over this stuff all the time and are rarely right. It's interesting to talk/guess about though.
Edit: I am going to a Real Estate Investors event tonight and next Wednesday, one of those should have the updated numbers for Denver for October, will share once I have the info.
Last edited by a moderator:
IC FBGCav
Footballguy
I bought and sold a house in June this year, Raleigh market. Things were flying off the market at that time. My house was sold and only showed one person. Where I bought some put a house up 2 doors down in September. It seems like he just sold. This housing market is on fire but summer seems the time to sell, fall time to buy.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Interest rates are definitely a factor. The amount of money coming into real estate from foreign investment has also dried up considerably. A giant factor in the recent meteoric rise in real estate was due to a major lack of inventory. With less foreign investment, interest rates that are less favorable, and this time of year generally being a slow seasonal time for home sales--you aren't seeing the extreme lack of inventory like we once had. You basically have a market where supply is opening up a bit and demand is dropping a bit.
Last edited by a moderator:
flapgreen
Footballguy
Still looking but haven't found the right one yet. A lot more houses on the market for longer, though.
flapgreen
Footballguy
Been looking since last September. Put in our first offer on a home this past weekend in the Nashville area but higher offer from someone else was accepted. Now have an offer in on another home but dealing with these Open Door idiots is a nightmare.
Last edited by a moderator:
