What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Perception Vs. Reality (1 Viewer)

SSOG

SSOG

Moderator
In this thread, discuss some common perceptions in fantasy football, and then give examples explaining why that perception has no basis in reality. I'll start us off.

Perception

Marty Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach.

Reality

Schotty was a conservative coach in Kansas City, but has really opened things up in San Diego. San Diego had 60 more passing attempts than rushing attempts last year, and Tomlinson attempted 4 halfback passes (3 of which were for TDs).

Perception

Michael Vick is an inconsistant fantasy QB who will frequently burn you.

Reality

Over the last 3 seasons, Michael Vick has scored over 15 fantasy points at a higher rate (62%) than Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Ben Roethlisburger, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck. Last year, Eli Manning scored under 12 points seven times to Vick's three, and over 18 points four times to Vick's EIGHT. Why don't I hear these criticisms about how Manning makes for a horrible QB1 then?

Perception

It's a guessing game from week-to-week trying to determine which Denver RB will put up all the points.

Reality

If you simply started the RB listed as the starter every week, you would have benefitted from the 10th best RB season in the league last year. As far as consistancy... Denver's starter (RB10) scored under 10 points 5 times. RB9 did it 5 times, RB11 did it 6 times, and RB12 did it 5 times, which means that that wasn't any more inconsistant than we'd expect from an RB10. Rudi Johnson scored under 10 points a whopping 8 times, and yet we don't hear a word about how inconsistant HE is.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Perception

New England spreads the ball around too much for anyone to have real value.

Reality

18 teams had at least one receiver that they targeted more than Branch last year, but he is firmly in the middle of the pack. He had 10 more than Hines Ward and an additional 11 targets would have put him in the league's top 12 most targeted receivers.

 
Perception

Michael Vick is an inconsistant fantasy QB who will frequently burn you.

Reality

Over the last 3 seasons, Michael Vick has scored over 15 fantasy points at a higher rate (62%) than Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Ben Roethlisburger, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck. Last year, Eli Manning scored under 12 points seven times to Vick's three, and over 18 points four times to Vick's EIGHT. Why don't I hear these criticisms about how Manning makes for a horrible QB1 then?
Click to expand...
RealityIn the right scoring system, Vick is a Top 5 QB (like my Dynasty league)

Brady, Tom QB NE 264.0

Palmer, Carson QB CIN 264.0

Manning, Eli QB NYG 244.0

Manning, Peyton QB IND 244.0

Vick, Michael QB ATL 238.0

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Perception

Michael Vick is an inconsistant fantasy QB who will frequently burn you.

Reality

Over the last 3 seasons, Michael Vick has scored over 15 fantasy points at a higher rate (62%) than Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Ben Roethlisburger, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck. Last year, Eli Manning scored under 12 points seven times to Vick's three, and over 18 points four times to Vick's EIGHT. Why don't I hear these criticisms about how Manning makes for a horrible QB1 then?
Click to expand...
Posted this recently in a thread about Brooks:
How many times did Brooks and the other top QBs score less than 15 fantasy points?  Let's use the top 15 QBs in FBG's current consensus rankings and the past 3 seasons (situations changed too much if we go further back, but sample set too small with fewer seasons) and FBG scoring:

Bulger - 6/37 = 16.2% (most encouraging stat I have seen yet for Kitna)

Peyton Manning - 12/48 = 25% (better than this due to end of season cameos)

Brady - 12/48 = 25% (better than this due to end of season cameos)

Hasselbeck - 13/46 = 28.3%

Brooks - 13/45 = 28.9%

Palmer - 9/30 = 30% (only 2 last year, so he is better than his ranking here)

McNabb - 12/40 = 30% (only 3 in 2 seasons with TO... will likely get worse)

Green - 15/48 = 31.3%

Plummer - 15/48 = 31.3%

Delhomme - 19/48 = 39.6%

Favre - 19/48 = 39.6%

Brees - 19/42 = 45.2%

Vick - 16/35 = 45.7%

Eli Manning - 13/25 = 52%

Bledsoe - 32/48 = 66.77%

How about games with less than 10 points?  Those are certainly killers.

Brooks - 3/45 = 6.7%

Bulger - 3/37 = 8.1%

Plummer - 4/48 = 8.3% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Hasselbeck - 4/46 = 8.7% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Palmer - 3/30 = 10% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

McNabb - 4/40 = 10% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Brady - 5/48 = 10.4% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Peyton Manning - 6/48 = 12.5% (4 possibly due to end of season cameos)

Delhomme - 7/48 = 14.6%

Green - 7/48 = 14.6%

Vick - 6/35 = 17.1% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Favre - 9/48 = 18.8%

Eli Manning - 6/25 = 24%

Brees - 12/42 = 28.6% (1 due to injury)

Bledsoe - 16/48 = 33.3%

Games with 20+ points:

Peyton Manning - 28/48 = 58.3%

Palmer - 15/30 = 50%

McNabb - 18/40 = 45% (12 with TO)

Green - 19/48 = 39.6%

Hasselbeck - 18/46 = 39.1%

Favre - 18/48 = 37.5%

Vick - 13/35 = 37.1%

Brooks - 16/45 = 35.6%

Brady - 17/48 = 35.4%

Brees - 14/42 = 33.3%

Bulger - 11/37 = 29.7%

Plummer - 14/48 = 29.2%

Delhomme - 13/48 = 27.1%

Bledsoe - 10/48 = 20.8%

Eli Manning - 5/25 = 20%

Games with 30+ points:

Peyton Manning - 9/48 = 18.8%

McNabb - 7/40 = 17.5% (all but 1 with TO)

Vick - 3/35 = 8.6%

Green - 4/48 - 8.3%

Favre - 3/48 = 6.3%

Bulger - 2/37 = 5.4%

Brees - 2/42 = 4.8%

Brooks - 2/45 = 4.4%

Hasselbeck - 2/46 = 4.3%

Plummer - 2/48 = 4.2%

Bledsoe - 2/48 = 4.2%

Eli Manning - 1/25 = 4%

Palmer - 1/30 = 3.3%

Brady - 1/48 = 2.1%

Delhomme - 0/48 = 0%
Click to expand...
Now, clearly Vick has been better than Eli. No contention there, though that is a bit of an unfair comparison, given the experience difference.But you also contended that Vick scored 15+ points 62% of the time. This is wrong according to FBG scoring. If you use something else, you should post it. But FBG scoring is a reasonable standard to use in most cases. And by FBG scoring, you got this about as wrong as you can get, as he has been one of the worst among established QBs.

You said Vick has scored 15+ points more often than McNabb, Green, Hasselbeck, Roethlisberger, and Favre. This is false for McNabb, Green, and Hasselbeck, each of whom also breaks 20 points more often.

Vick edges Favre by only the narrowest of margins, and that is offset for many by the fact that Favre is a virtual lock to play 16 games, which Vick clearly is not, as well as the fact that Favre scores 20+ more often.

As for Roethlisberger, yes Vick is better, but look where you need to take each of them... per FBG ADP, Vick is currently the 76th player off the board at QB10, while Roethlisberger is only the 98th player drafted at QB16. The difference you cite here is reflected in their ADP. IMO this is apples and oranges.

All that said, FBG's current rankings have Vick 11th, behind Eli, Delhomme, and Bledsoe, and he has been more consistent than each of them. I agree with you that I'd rather have Vick than Eli, given that I would be compelled to have a reasonably good backup for either one. I think Vick & Delhomme are a toss up, so I'd prefer the one drafted later (again, ensuring I got a solid backup). Bledsoe has been less consistent than Vick, but he also has TO this year... so I think you can throw that older data out. Assuming preseason doesn't reveal issues in Dallas, I'd rather have Bledsoe than Vick this year. And I'd also rather have the other 7 QBs I didn't mention here who are also currently ranked above Vick.

The thing to do with Vick this year is to draft QB late, but get two close together, maybe back to back, with Vick being one of them.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Alge Crumpler - Perception:

Negatives There isn’t much not to like about Crumpler – it would be nice to see him catch more TDs, but other than that he’s a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. Outlook Crumpler should easily match or surpass his 2005 campaign – he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.
Click to expand...
Reality: Based upon game logs, he is one of the most uninteresting players in FF. He's had a few good games, and nothing else.Really, mediocrity is his best FF quality - and I see no improvement for 2006. ... Just my gut speaking.
 
Alge Crumpler -

Perception:

Negatives

There isn’t much not to like about Crumpler – it would be nice to see him catch more TDs, but other than that he’s a super-solid TE in the prime of his career.

Outlook

Crumpler should easily match or surpass his 2005 campaign – he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.
Click to expand...
Reality: Based upon game logs, he is one of the most uninteresting players in FF. He's had a few good games, and nothing else.Really, mediocrity is his best FF quality - and I see no improvement for 2006. ... Just my gut speaking.
Click to expand...
Having a TE put up consistently middling numbers rather than the standard 2-5 points and occasional 15 point games is significantly MORE desirable from your TE than from other spots (like WR, where you expect down games and up games)I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.

 
Perception

When RBs reach 30 years of age, they hit the wall.

Reality

In 2003, Holmes turned 30 and finished number one while breaking the TD record.

In 2004, Martin had a top 5 season and won the rushing title. Corey Dillon scored the most fantasy points of his career.

In 2005, Mike Anderson had a top 10 finish at 32 and Tiki Barber had the second-highest combined yardage total of any RB ever.

 
Perception

When RBs reach 30 years of age, they hit the wall.

Reality

In 2003, Holmes turned 30 and finished number one while breaking the TD record.

In 2004, Martin had a top 5 season and won the rushing title. Corey Dillon scored the most fantasy points of his career.

In 2005, Mike Anderson had a top 10 finish at 32 and Tiki Barber had the second-highest combined yardage total of any RB ever.
Click to expand...
Always exceptions. Shall we talk about the Wheatleys of the world?
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
You ignore value. I took Cooley in the 12th round last year.I'll take TE Alex Smith much later than Crumpler this year.

 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
We must be talking about two different Alge Crumplers. Last season, Crumpler scored 7+ fantasy points in 5 of 16 games (FBG scoring). He did it in 7 of 14 games in 2004, 3 of 16 in 2003, and 5 of 16 in 2002.Basically, Crumpler had 2 great games last year. Throw them out and he averaged 5.7 ppg in the other 14 games.Meanwhile, Cooley reached 7+ points 7 times last year and 6 times in 2004. Throw out Cooley's best 2 games last year, and he averaged the exact same 5.7 ppg the rest of the season.So not only am I not seeing the 7 or 8 points every game comment, I'm also not seeing why Crumpler is better than Cooley. :confused:
 
Perception

When RBs reach 30 years of age, they hit the wall.

Reality

In 2003, Holmes turned 30 and finished number one while breaking the TD record.

In 2004, Martin had a top 5 season and won the rushing title. Corey Dillon scored the most fantasy points of his career.

In 2005, Mike Anderson had a top 10 finish at 32 and Tiki Barber had the second-highest combined yardage total of any RB ever.
Click to expand...
Always exceptions. Shall we talk about the Wheatleys of the world?
Click to expand...
:thumbup: Perception versus reality is not designed to find the exception to the rule - it is to find the reality that debunks the perception. The reality is that MOST RBs break down after 30.

 
Perception versus reality is not designed to find the exception to the rule - it is to find the reality that debunks the perception. The reality is that MOST RBs break down after 30.
Click to expand...
Point taken. But a lot of people talk like it can't happen.
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
We must be talking about two different Alge Crumplers. Last season, Crumpler scored 7+ fantasy points in 5 of 16 games (FBG scoring). He did it in 7 of 14 games in 2004, 3 of 16 in 2003, and 5 of 16 in 2002.Basically, Crumpler had 2 great games last year. Throw them out and he averaged 5.7 ppg in the other 14 games.

Meanwhile, Cooley reached 7+ points 7 times last year and 6 times in 2004. Throw out Cooley's best 2 games last year, and he averaged the exact same 5.7 ppg the rest of the season.

So not only am I not seeing the 7 or 8 points every game comment, I'm also not seeing why Crumpler is better than Cooley. :confused:
Click to expand...
when I said "for example" I didn't even look up Cooley's numbers. Pick your TE who is only good when he scores TDs - fine - Heath Miller.
 
Perception

When RBs reach 30 years of age, they hit the wall.

Reality

In 2003, Holmes turned 30 and finished number one while breaking the TD record.

In 2004, Martin had a top 5 season and won the rushing title. Corey Dillon scored the most fantasy points of his career.

In 2005, Mike Anderson had a top 10 finish at 32 and Tiki Barber had the second-highest combined yardage total of any RB ever.
Click to expand...
Always exceptions. Shall we talk about the Wheatleys of the world?
Click to expand...
No, before you have a dropoff, i think you have to be successful first.
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
You ignore value. I took Cooley in the 12th round last year.I'll take TE Alex Smith much later than Crumpler this year.
Click to expand...
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
You ignore value. I took Cooley in the 12th round last year.I'll take TE Alex Smith much later than Crumpler this year.
Click to expand...
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.Reality is a personal choice.

 
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
Everything, but nothing that you're talking about.Perception vs. reality is where value is created.

 
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
Everything, but nothing that you're talking about.Perception vs. reality is where value is created.
Click to expand...
nice one - but at least you get it.
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.

Reality is a personal choice.
Click to expand...
Mister CIA - how did you "debunk" that perception???
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
You ignore value. I took Cooley in the 12th round last year.I'll take TE Alex Smith much later than Crumpler this year.
Click to expand...
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.Reality is a personal choice.
Click to expand...
6th, 4th, and 5th the last 3 years....sounds rock-solid to me :shrug:
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
We must be talking about two different Alge Crumplers. Last season, Crumpler scored 7+ fantasy points in 5 of 16 games (FBG scoring). He did it in 7 of 14 games in 2004, 3 of 16 in 2003, and 5 of 16 in 2002.Basically, Crumpler had 2 great games last year. Throw them out and he averaged 5.7 ppg in the other 14 games.

Meanwhile, Cooley reached 7+ points 7 times last year and 6 times in 2004. Throw out Cooley's best 2 games last year, and he averaged the exact same 5.7 ppg the rest of the season.

So not only am I not seeing the 7 or 8 points every game comment, I'm also not seeing why Crumpler is better than Cooley. :confused:
Click to expand...
when I said "for example" I didn't even look up Cooley's numbers. Pick your TE who is only good when he scores TDs - fine - Heath Miller.
Click to expand...
The thing is, I don't think anyone has the perception that Miller is as good or better than Crumpler, so reality = perception here. You're going to have to abandon this line of thinking or come up with an actual valid example.EDIT: Hint, you might consider comparing him to other top 8 TEs, like Heap for example.

And I like how you ignored the 7 or 8 points every game comment. That actually makes a nice follow-up perception vs. reality item. The fact is, besides Gates, no TE can be counted on to get 7+ points in the majority of his games. Shockey is close and Gonzo was there in the past.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
Everything, but nothing that you're talking about.Perception vs. reality is where value is created.
Click to expand...
nice one - but at least you get it.
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.

Reality is a personal choice.
Click to expand...
Mister CIA - how did you "debunk" that perception???
Click to expand...
Game logs! Do you need a link?That, and my personal interpretation of the tea leaves.

Go find a bigger fish.

 
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
Everything, but nothing that you're talking about.Perception vs. reality is where value is created.
Click to expand...
nice one - but at least you get it.
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.

Reality is a personal choice.
Click to expand...
Mister CIA - how did you "debunk" that perception???
Click to expand...
Game logs! Do you need a link?That, and my personal interpretation of the tea leaves.

Go find a bigger fish.
Click to expand...
what r u talking about? i am not fishing - i have no need to fish.how did you debunk the perception that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.with reality??

his game logs AND EOY stats prove he IS a top-5 fantasy TE

 
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
Everything, but nothing that you're talking about.Perception vs. reality is where value is created.
Click to expand...
nice one - but at least you get it.
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.

Reality is a personal choice.
Click to expand...
Mister CIA - how did you "debunk" that perception???
Click to expand...
Game logs! Do you need a link?That, and my personal interpretation of the tea leaves.

Go find a bigger fish.
Click to expand...
what r u talking about? i am not fishing - i have no need to fish.how did you debunk the perception that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.with reality??

his game logs AND EOY stats prove he IS a top-5 fantasy TE
Click to expand...
I cannot debunk the past, nor can I debunk mediocrity. You win.

 
what the heck does value have to do with perception versus reality?
Click to expand...
Everything, but nothing that you're talking about.Perception vs. reality is where value is created.
Click to expand...
nice one - but at least you get it.
The PERCEPTION is that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.

Reality is a personal choice.
Click to expand...
Mister CIA - how did you "debunk" that perception???
Click to expand...
Game logs! Do you need a link?That, and my personal interpretation of the tea leaves.

Go find a bigger fish.
Click to expand...
what r u talking about? i am not fishing - i have no need to fish.how did you debunk the perception that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.with reality??

his game logs AND EOY stats prove he IS a top-5 fantasy TE
Click to expand...
I cannot debunk the past, nor can I debunk mediocrity. You win.
Click to expand...
:unsure:
 
I'll take the uninteresting Alge Crumpler averaging 7 or 8 points EVERY game instead of the very interesting Chris Cooley averaging the (for example) same amount of points, but only when he catches a TD.
Click to expand...
You ignore value. I took Cooley in the 12th round last year.I'll take TE Alex Smith much later than Crumpler this year.
Click to expand...
After reading the rest of your posts, I had another good laugh.Smith is far from breaking out onto the fantasy scene, and you are definitely deluding yourself if you think so. :loco:

I'd consider myself one of the biggest and most informed bucs fans out there, and he is probably going to ice another 2TD opener and then go mute for the rest of the year again.

If you aren't going to pay any attention to any stats that were presented on Crumpler that clearly disprove your primitive assertions, then you needn't post here.

Only post if you're going to participate in debate, not throw a hissy fit when you're proven wrong.

If you want to argue with these guys, feel more than welcome to. But do it with stats and numbers in addition to your opinions. Don't use your opinions to somehow disprove stats. It doesn't work like that.

 
Smith is far from breaking out onto the fantasy scene, and you are definitely deluding yourself if you think so. wacko.gifI'd consider myself one of the biggest and most informed bucs fans out there, and he is probably going to ice another 2TD opener and then go mute for the rest of the year again.
Click to expand...
Do you mind expanding on your reasoning here?
 
how did you debunk the perception that Alge Crumpler is a super-solid TE in the prime of his career. and he’s a fantasy blue-chipper in TE required leagues.with reality??

his game logs AND EOY stats prove he IS a top-5 fantasy TE
Click to expand...
I cannot debunk the past, nor can I debunk mediocrity. You win.
Click to expand...
:unsure:
Click to expand...
I think that smilie says it all - - but, of course, I have a bit more to say. We could debate his overall talent if you wish, but that is a side issue to this thread. He lives up to the fantasy football based "perception" that was asserted above, and you have not done anything to show that the fantasy football reality is in contrast to that fantasy football perception.

 
...

But you also contended that Vick scored 15+ points 62% of the time. This is wrong according to FBG scoring. If you use something else, you should post it. But FBG scoring is a reasonable standard to use in most cases. And by FBG scoring, you got this about as wrong as you can get, as he has been one of the worst among established QBs.

...
Click to expand...
That was a typo. I meant to say over the last *4* years, not over the last *3* years. Michael Vick has scored under 15 points 19 times in the 50 games he's played over the last 4 years, which works out to 38% of the time under 15 points, and 62% of the time at 15+. Mea culpa.
 
...

But you also contended that Vick scored 15+ points 62% of the time.  This is wrong according to FBG scoring.  If you use something else, you should post it.  But FBG scoring is a reasonable standard to use in most cases.  And by FBG scoring, you got this about as wrong as you can get, as he has been one of the worst among established QBs.

...
Click to expand...
That was a typo. I meant to say over the last *4* years, not over the last *3* years. Michael Vick has scored under 15 points 19 times in the 50 games he's played over the last 4 years, which works out to 38% of the time under 15 points, and 62% of the time at 15+. Mea culpa.
Click to expand...
No worries. Had I not made that other post with the data recently, I wouldn't have known and it wouldn't have struck me as wrong. One problem with going back 4 years is that QB situations have changed so much over that span that you get more skewed results because of that. In my original post in the Brooks thread, I started to go back to 2002, but I ultimately cut down to 3 years because I felt it made a more legitimate comparison. Heck, Vick's situation has changed. I agree that if I could get 2002 Vick this year, he'd be a heck of a bargain.
 
Perception

Marty Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach.

Reality

Schotty was a conservative coach in Kansas City, but has really opened things up in San Diego. San Diego had 60 more passing attempts than rushing attempts last year, and Tomlinson attempted 4 halfback passes (3 of which were for TDs).
Click to expand...
That's not the reason Schottenheimer is considered conservative.The reason is because, when the game is close and he has a lead, he often seems to prefer to shut his offense down and rely on his defense. It cost him a playoff game I believe as recently as a couple years ago against the Jets. If you remember in that game, the Chargers were moving the ball well, but when they barely got in FG range, they basically shut their offense down. Schottenheimer looked for a long FG + defense to win. But the gameplan was too conservative - it resulted in a FG that was too long and the kicker missed it.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Perception

Marty Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach.

Reality

Schotty was a conservative coach in Kansas City, but has really opened things up in San Diego. San Diego had 60 more passing attempts than rushing attempts last year, and Tomlinson attempted 4 halfback passes (3 of which were for TDs).
Click to expand...
That's not the reason Schottenheimer is considered conservative.The reason is because, when the game is close and he has a lead, he often seems to prefer to shut his offense down and rely on his defense. It cost him a playoff game I believe as recently as a couple years ago against the Jets. If you remember in that game, the Chargers were moving the ball well, but when they barely got in FG range, they basically shut their offense down. Schottenheimer looked for a long FG + defense to win. But the gameplan was too conservative - it resulted in a FG that was too long and the kicker missed it.
Click to expand...
That was in OT - The Chargers had 1st-10 at the Jets 33 and ran LT who got 9 yards - Was THAT conservative? After they got the 1st down then it was 1-10 at the 22 and they ran LT for -1 - NOW it was conservative? They ran LT 3 times at the 22 for no Gain......I don't know, If I have LT on my team and I have 1st and 10 at the 22, I kinda think the game is in the bag and LT can get me a few more yards for a FG...

I don't consider handing the ball to LT "Shutting it down" - How many times have LT, LJ, Alexander etc, Ripped off a TD at that point when the offense was being "Shut down"?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
...

But you also contended that Vick scored 15+ points 62% of the time. This is wrong according to FBG scoring. If you use something else, you should post it. But FBG scoring is a reasonable standard to use in most cases. And by FBG scoring, you got this about as wrong as you can get, as he has been one of the worst among established QBs.

...
Click to expand...
That was a typo. I meant to say over the last *4* years, not over the last *3* years. Michael Vick has scored under 15 points 19 times in the 50 games he's played over the last 4 years, which works out to 38% of the time under 15 points, and 62% of the time at 15+. Mea culpa.
Click to expand...
No worries. Had I not made that other post with the data recently, I wouldn't have known and it wouldn't have struck me as wrong. One problem with going back 4 years is that QB situations have changed so much over that span that you get more skewed results because of that. In my original post in the Brooks thread, I started to go back to 2002, but I ultimately cut down to 3 years because I felt it made a more legitimate comparison. Heck, Vick's situation has changed. I agree that if I could get 2002 Vick this year, he'd be a heck of a bargain.
Click to expand...
I just used the numbers from the last 4 seasons because those were the numbers that I had (I ran the numbers for every one of Vick's seasons except his rookie season, because I always assume that rookie data is bad data one a vet has proven he's playing above that level).Anyway, I think it's important to include Vick's 2002 season, because it's a good showcase of what his ceiling is. I completely understand your point and reasoning behind going back 3 seasons, and it's a very valid way of looking at it, but I like looking at career numbers, excluding anything that's obviously a fluke.

Perception

Marty Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach.

Reality

Schotty was a conservative coach in Kansas City, but has really opened things up in San Diego. San Diego had 60 more passing attempts than rushing attempts last year, and Tomlinson attempted 4 halfback passes (3 of which were for TDs).
Click to expand...
That's not the reason Schottenheimer is considered conservative.The reason is because, when the game is close and he has a lead, he often seems to prefer to shut his offense down and rely on his defense. It cost him a playoff game I believe as recently as a couple years ago against the Jets. If you remember in that game, the Chargers were moving the ball well, but when they barely got in FG range, they basically shut their offense down. Schottenheimer looked for a long FG + defense to win. But the gameplan was too conservative - it resulted in a FG that was too long and the kicker missed it.
Click to expand...
I don't recall the exact circumstances behind the OT loss to the Jets, but I do seem to recall SD's kicker missing a potentially game-winning FG. If Schotty *did* go conservative, he still got his team in position for the game-winner, didn't he?Anyway, remember back to the season-opener against Dallas. SD needs a TD to win, has 1st-and-goal from the 9 or 10 yard line... and goes pass-crazy, and gets criticised for not giving the ball to LT (aka going conservative). So if Schotty *doesn't* give the ball to LT at the end and they lose, they're idiots... but if he *DOES* give the ball to LT at the end, and they lose, then he's a conservative idiot? Talk about "damned if you do, damned if you don't".

I think the Dallas Game last year is a very strong counter-example to everyone who claims that Schottenheimer is still the coach who turtles up and pounds the ball late in the game.

 
Perception

Marty Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach.

Reality

Schotty was a conservative coach in Kansas City, but has really opened things up in San Diego. San Diego had 60 more passing attempts than rushing attempts last year, and Tomlinson attempted 4 halfback passes (3 of which were for TDs).
Click to expand...
The Chargers also seemed to go for it on fourth down more than most other teams did (although I don't have any stats in front of me to back that up).
 
Perception

Marty Schottenheimer is a very conservative coach.

Reality

Schotty was a conservative coach in Kansas City, but has really opened things up in San Diego. San Diego had 60 more passing attempts than rushing attempts last year, and Tomlinson attempted 4 halfback passes (3 of which were for TDs).
Click to expand...
The Chargers also seemed to go for it on fourth down more than most other teams did (although I don't have any stats in front of me to back that up).
Click to expand...
Chargers are in a 4-way tie for 8th place for most 4th down attempts with 17. Of course that number is probably not set in a proper context unless we know how many short yardage 4th downs they had. He's a lot more conservative if they had 200 and only tried 17 times, than if they had 18 and he tried 17 times.
 
I don't consider handing the ball to LT "Shutting it down" - How many times have LT, LJ, Alexander etc, Ripped off a TD at that point when the offense was being "Shut down"?
Click to expand...
Yes, in hindsight since LT didn't get a first down, it looked like bad playcalling. But without the benefit of hindsight, I don't know if it's ever bad playcalling to call LT's number.
 
Perception

Michael Vick is an inconsistant fantasy QB who will frequently burn you.

Reality

Over the last 3 seasons, Michael Vick has scored over 15 fantasy points at a higher rate (62%) than Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Ben Roethlisburger, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck. Last year, Eli Manning scored under 12 points seven times to Vick's three, and over 18 points four times to Vick's EIGHT. Why don't I hear these criticisms about how Manning makes for a horrible QB1 then?
Click to expand...
Doesn't this arguement prove how inconsistent Vick is? If Vick didn't have as many crappy games as he's had, he'd be a top 5 QB. The fact that he's had more big games than the QB's you mentioned really doesn't show that Vick's consistent at all.
 
Perception

Michael Vick is an inconsistant fantasy QB who will frequently burn you.

Reality

Over the last 3 seasons, Michael Vick has scored over 15 fantasy points at a higher rate (62%) than Eli Manning, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Ben Roethlisburger, Donovan McNabb, and Matt Hasselbeck. Last year, Eli Manning scored under 12 points seven times to Vick's three, and over 18 points four times to Vick's EIGHT. Why don't I hear these criticisms about how Manning makes for a horrible QB1 then?
Click to expand...
Doesn't this arguement prove how inconsistent Vick is? If Vick didn't have as many crappy games as he's had, he'd be a top 5 QB. The fact that he's had more big games than the QB's you mentioned really doesn't show that Vick's consistent at all.
Click to expand...
No, it doesn't prove how inconsistant Vick is. What do you mean "if he didn't have as many crappy games as he's had"? I just provided the numbers. He's had far fewer "crappy games" than many of the QBs ranked ahead of him. Did you miss that part where I said that he only scored under 12 points three times last season?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

creepythinman
True League Winners - Upgrading the Playoff Roster
Replies
25
Views
1K
creepythinman
creepythinman
FFCollusion
Juggernaut RB Theory
Replies
3
Views
681
Da Franchise
D
M
Looking at perception of 2022 class vs 2023 class at similar juncture
Replies
21
Views
871
menobrown
M

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top