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3 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

I don't love it. I get the need for it to be hyper-sensitive, but at some point I'm going to get rear-ended because my car can't tell the difference between a car in front of me in my lane and a car in the next lane to my right when we go around a bend.

Yeah, I had one brake check experience in my trial.  Just going down a 2 lane road and someone went thru an intersection probably 100 yards ahead of me.  Speed limit was 40 and thats probably what I was going.  Under normal circumstances I would have probably just coasted and let the car clear (I was never in danger of hitting it, and was a normal move by the crossing car) but my car detected it and hit the brakes fairly hard.  

I didn't have anyone behind me, but if I did it would have definitely caught them off guard.  Maybe if I did have someone behind me my car would have sensed it and not braked, I don't know?  I wasn't a fan after that.  

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welp, just got rear ended in my 3.  F-550 hit me so hard I went into the 2 cars in front of me.   I got it all on my dash cam.  I'll figure out how to load that up later and post some pics.  I fi

Just put in my order for a Model 3 LR RWD

Picked up my new Model 3 today. Did not play with any autopilot features, was mostly on back roads and wanted the full experience. One pedal driving is so much fun on roads with lots of curves. So is

On 4/3/2019 at 9:34 PM, Shoot_Me_Now said:

 

And the house  of cards begins to collapse. 

77k cars produced in Q1 with 63k delivered. A whopping 31% decline from Q4 2018. Even worse, a 56% decline in their portfolio that was profitable (before the price cuts anyway.) Inventory piling up with dwindling demand will unwind this magic show in a hurry. 

But the demand is strong! Who cares about the price cuts! They need more production capacity! 

FC took a lot of heat in here but the signs were all right there in the above post. Will be an interesting few months ahead for Tesla. 

Update

Also @fantasycurse42

Edited by culdeus
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22 minutes ago, dhockster said:

Any idea whether the Corona Virus will affect production in China?

I mean the country is extending holidays.  I can't imagine Tesla has the power to order people to work.   

Anyone that builds crap in China expects a week of downtime in late January.  Just now it's two.  Or three?

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2 hours ago, culdeus said:

Update

Also @fantasycurse42

When they're worth more than Toyota (and they will be at some point), I believe that will be the ultimate sell signal for all equities as we have reached full ludicrous mode. They sold 367k vehicles, if they keep pace at 35% annual growth for the next 7 years, they'll sell as many vehicles as Toyota did in 2019, in North America. I've never traded it bc cult stocks are harder to figure out, imo. 

 

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2 hours ago, dhockster said:

Any idea whether the Corona Virus will affect production in China?

On the earnings call last night, they said they expect the factory to be shut down an additional week to week and a half.

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I don't know how anybody can know at this point.  Trusting the Chinese government to be honest about all this is like, well, trusting the US government to be honest about... anything.

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5 hours ago, Worm said:

It's good to see them performing better.

I just can't see how that price is justified. People are nuts.

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7 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

It's good to see them performing better.

I just can't see how that price is justified. People are nuts.

Mainly posted that to the "Tezzla goin bankrupts in 2020!!11" crew.

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

When they're worth more than Toyota (and they will be at some point), I believe that will be the ultimate sell signal for all equities as we have reached full ludicrous mode. They sold 367k vehicles, if they keep pace at 35% annual growth for the next 7 years, they'll sell as many vehicles as Toyota did in 2019, in North America. I've never traded it bc cult stocks are harder to figure out, imo. 

 

The stock is one of the ultimate house of cards I have seen in quite some time. Makes zero sense....like literally zero sense and at some point....it will get very very ugly for people who are not smart enough to pat themselves on the back and take a huge profit. The shorts will come back in force. Because a good portion of this was short covering. And the other pure euphoric cult behavior.

Where is the moat? It has none at this point.

I stay away from stocks like this.  

Fair value? I can't even put a price on that...but my opinion is 275-300 a share tops.

SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Take the money and run folks. The EPS on this stock was $2.14 

The stock price is freaking 646 plus. Lord people. Get out if you made a ton of money......seriously. 

They well may be a viable company in the future....but I do not see anything fundamentally to support a stock price like this. It is lunacy.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Sacamano said:

It's good to see them performing better.

I just can't see how that price is justified. People are nuts.

Agreed. The stock price is absolute insanity.

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Just now, Todem said:

The stock is one of the ultimate house of cards I have seen in quite some time. Makes zero sense....like literally zero sense and at some point....it will get very very ugly for people who are not smart enough to pat themselves on the back and take a huge profit. The shorts will come back in force. Because a good portion of this was short covering. And the other pure euphoric cult behavior.

Where is the moat? It has none at this point.

I stay away from stocks like this.  

Fair value? I can't even put a price on that...but my opinion is 275-300 a share tops.

SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Take the money and run folks. The EPS on this stock was $2.14 

The stock price is freaking 646 plus. Lord people. Get out if you made a ton of money......seriously. 

They well may be a viable company in the future....but I do not see anything fundamentally to support a stock price like this. It is lunacy.

The argument (which is completely idiotic imo) is that they're a technology company and should be valued as one, not an auto company. That's one of them. If that was the case, then selling 500k cars in 2020 shouldn't really swing the pendulum, but here we are. 

Right now is about as seriously as I have considered shorting the stock... I still won't bc losing money on Tesla would sting, so I sit and watch. I'm not one to root for people to lose money, but seeing margin calls hit shareholders here would be entertaining. Prob a while before we get there, stock is prob heading to $1k before taking a 70% fall.  

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6 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

As long as you stick to the 19" wheels

Yes, which are fine with me.  Also I adjusted the above to show that the range estimate was for the AWD long range specifically (others got a range increase as well, but that is the model I'm personally considering). 

4.1 miles per kWh for the Y.  I can currently get a kWh at home for about 12 cents.  So charging at home will be about a quarter as expensive as my current gas car.  My electric company is toying with the idea of "off hour rates" which would make my cost per mile only about an eighth of what they are now.

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1 hour ago, Bob Sacamano said:

It's good to see them performing better.

I just can't see how that price is justified. People are nuts.

Investors are banking on the fact that Tesla will pull an Amazon and crush for decades. Which at this point, may be a good bet.

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4 minutes ago, dhockster said:

Perhaps a dumb question: is tire wear the same in an electric vehicle as it is in a gas powered vehicle? 

I would expect it to be equivalent, in general, but keep in mind that you will wear tires faster the more spirited you drive.

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8 minutes ago, dhockster said:

Perhaps a dumb question: is tire wear the same in an electric vehicle as it is in a gas powered vehicle? 

Should be totally dependent on the type of driver you are.  If you're doing a lot of fun driving to test the capabilities of it, then you'll wear them out faster.  If you drive the car regular, should be no difference. 

That said, tires are pretty much the only thing you'll need to eventually replace on these cars.  That's one thing I really like about the idea of a BEV - I don't have to do a 10k mile service or change the oil 2x a year or "maintain the transmission" or anything like that.  No changing spark plugs. 

One question I did have for the tesla owners in here - with no "key" (and your phone being the key), how do you drop off the car at a service station or similar when getting the car inspected (at my local shop, I just drop off a vehicle in the morning, they do the inspection, and I pick up in the afternoon - which works for me with the location of my office and the shop). 

Edited by matttyl
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5 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Should be totally dependent on the type of driver you are.  If you're doing a lot of fun driving to test the capabilities of it, then you'll wear them out faster.  If you drive the car regular, should be no difference. 

That said, tires are pretty much the only thing you'll need to eventually replace on these cars.  That's one thing I really like about the idea of a BEV - I don't have to do a 10k mile service or change the oil 2x a year or "maintain the transmission" or anything like that.  No changing spark plugs. 

One question I did have for the tesla owners in here - with no "key" (and your phone being the key), how do you drop off the car at a service station or similar when getting the car inspected (at my local shop, I just drop off a vehicle in the morning, they do the inspection, and I pick up in the afternoon - which works for me with the location of my office and the shop). 

Tesla Mobile Service FTW!

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5 minutes ago, matttyl said:

Should be totally dependent on the type of driver you are.  If you're doing a lot of fun driving to test the capabilities of it, then you'll wear them out faster.  If you drive the car regular, should be no difference. 

That said, tires are pretty much the only thing you'll need to eventually replace on these cars.  That's one thing I really like about the idea of a BEV - I don't have to do a 10k mile service or change the oil 2x a year or "maintain the transmission" or anything like that.  No changing spark plugs. 

One question I did have for the tesla owners in here - with no "key" (and your phone being the key), how do you drop off the car at a service station or similar when getting the car inspected (at my local shop, I just drop off a vehicle in the morning, they do the inspection, and I pick up in the afternoon - which works for me with the location of my office and the shop). 

With the Model 3, you use your phone as your primary key, but you also have a credit card sized backup key.

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16 minutes ago, dhockster said:

Perhaps a dumb question: is tire wear the same in an electric vehicle as it is in a gas powered vehicle? 

I think the weight of these vehicles wears the tires out a little faster.  That and regen braking....I don't think its a major deal though.  

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Just now, jb1020 said:

I think the weight of these vehicles wears the tires out a little faster.  That and regen braking....I don't think its a major deal though.  

I think that was what I was asking, does the difference in how the cars brake affect the wear on the tires? 

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Just now, dhockster said:

I think that was what I was asking, does the difference in how the cars brake affect the wear on the tires? 

I think they do, but they wear evenly...which probably makes it a negligible difference in the long term.  

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3 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

The argument (which is completely idiotic imo) is that they're a technology company and should be valued as one, not an auto company. That's one of them. If that was the case, then selling 500k cars in 2020 shouldn't really swing the pendulum, but here we are. 

Right now is about as seriously as I have considered shorting the stock... I still won't bc losing money on Tesla would sting, so I sit and watch. I'm not one to root for people to lose money, but seeing margin calls hit shareholders here would be entertaining. Prob a while before we get there, stock is prob heading to $1k before taking a 70% fall.  

I don’t trust your judgement with stocks being too high (I think Shopify has tripled or quadrupled since we chatted about it in the stock thread), but I do understand the technology company comment. Most tech companies have big operating margins because they sell goods or services that don’t have costs like manufacturing cars. The P/E ratio is more important than P/S. That said, Tesla, like Amazon with AWS or Apple with the iWatch or Music, has the opportunity to branch into solar and batteries, etc. The problem is that those are again manufacturing devices so lower margins than say software. I think they’ll go up but I do see a ceiling on Tesla that isn’t on other tech companies because of margins.

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3 hours ago, Todem said:

The stock is one of the ultimate house of cards I have seen in quite some time. Makes zero sense....like literally zero sense and at some point....it will get very very ugly for people who are not smart enough to pat themselves on the back and take a huge profit. The shorts will come back in force. Because a good portion of this was short covering. And the other pure euphoric cult behavior.

Where is the moat? It has none at this point.

I stay away from stocks like this.  

Fair value? I can't even put a price on that...but my opinion is 275-300 a share tops.

SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Take the money and run folks. The EPS on this stock was $2.14 

The stock price is freaking 646 plus. Lord people. Get out if you made a ton of money......seriously. 

They well may be a viable company in the future....but I do not see anything fundamentally to support a stock price like this. It is lunacy.

I agree, you absolutely should not invest in a company that you do not understand.

Edited by Dragons
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10 minutes ago, stbugs said:

I don’t trust your judgement with stocks being too high (I think Shopify has tripled or quadrupled since we chatted about it in the stock thread), but I do understand the technology company comment. Most tech companies have big operating margins because they sell goods or services that don’t have costs like manufacturing cars. The P/E ratio is more important than P/S. That said, Tesla, like Amazon with AWS or Apple with the iWatch or Music, has the opportunity to branch into solar and batteries, etc. The problem is that those are again manufacturing devices so lower margins than say software. I think they’ll go up but I do see a ceiling on Tesla that isn’t on other tech companies because of margins.

Bc everyone is always right about every call? One thing I didn't notice about Shopify earlier is they have no debt on the books. I took a deeper dive into their books once they started exploding and changed my opinion. I didn't actually put a dollar behind the call, so whatever, same as Tesla. Nonetheless, I could not care less about anyone trusting my judgement; I've enjoyed gains almost dollar for dollar as the S&P over the last year, yet my investments are much more hedged against downside than the overwhelming majority, so I'm doing okay. 

Tesla isn't a tech company, their money comes from selling hard manufactured goods, period. 

Edited by fantasycurse42
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43 minutes ago, The General said:

I didn’t even think about it until I was packing some stuff into the trunk but there’s no spare, no jack, right?

Pretty much have to call road side service?

No Spare or jack.  I never had one, but I was told to keep an air compressor in the trunk.  The screen alerts you as soon as your pressure drops and the tires are designed to allow you to run a few miles on them.  I think the air compressor would be like performing CPR...might get you a little bit farther.  

I never liked not having one, but apparently a lot of new cars are like this now.  

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Do Teslas have run flats?

My car has no spare either. I actually got a flat, drove to a flat fix spot, plugged the tire and moved along. It is rated for 45 miles after an issue.

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1 hour ago, The General said:

I didn’t even think about it until I was packing some stuff into the trunk but there’s no spare, no jack, right?

Pretty much have to call road side service?

yep.  service was great for me.

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1 hour ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Bc everyone is always right about every call? One thing I didn't notice about Shopify earlier is they have no debt on the books. I took a deeper dive into their books once they started exploding and changed my opinion. I didn't actually put a dollar behind the call, so whatever, same as Tesla. Nonetheless, I could not care less about anyone trusting my judgement; I've enjoyed gains almost dollar for dollar as the S&P over the last year, yet my investments are much more hedged against downside than the overwhelming majority, so I'm doing okay. 

Tesla isn't a tech company, their money comes from selling hard manufactured goods, period. 

No need to be so sensitive Francis. I’m agreeing with you here on Tesla, just saying we didn’t see eye to eye on many things over the past couple years. Tesla’s margins <> typical tech company and they likely never will. They’d have to win the software for all autonomous cars. They’ve got a ton of competition there and in the end I think that’ll be an add-on cost.

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2 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Click on your own link there. Then choose "Build and Price". Get ready to say "NOPE!" and close your browser.

Buy Tesla. 

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6 hours ago, fantasycurse42 said:

Right now is about as seriously as I have considered shorting the stock... I still won't bc losing money on Tesla would sting, so I sit and watch. I'm not one to root for people to lose money, but seeing margin calls hit shareholders here would be entertaining.

Seeing shorts rant and rave and knuckle under is even more entertaining imo.  Shorts can tend to lose it when the exuberance of the despised herd puts them in a pickle.  Only a small portion have capitulated, so plenty of good teeth-gnashing and buckshot FUD to come potentially.  Fun stock to watch, both up and down.

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4 hours ago, Dragons said:

I agree, you absolutely should not invest in a company that you do not understand.

Oh I understand what they do......LOL!!!!! The stock price is simply not sustainable at these levels.

You will find out soon enough.

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1 hour ago, proteus126 said:

Seeing shorts rant and rave and knuckle under is even more entertaining imo.  Shorts can tend to lose it when the exuberance of the despised herd puts them in a pickle.  Only a small portion have capitulated, so plenty of good teeth-gnashing and buckshot FUD to come potentially.  Fun stock to watch, both up and down.

It really is so fun to watch :bag:

 

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23 minutes ago, Todem said:

Oh I understand what they do......LOL!!!!! The stock price is simply not sustainable at these levels.

You will find out soon enough.

 

8 hours ago, Todem said:

Where is the moat? It has none at this point.

I would say that you clearly do not understand the company.

The stock price will go down, it will go up. Maybe not in that order. If you only look at Q4 2019 financials, the stock is massively over valued. If you project where the company could be in 3-5 years, then you may want to buckle in for the ride.

Or stay far away. It's all up to you.

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3 minutes ago, Dragons said:

 

I would say that you clearly do not understand the company.

The stock price will go down, it will go up. Maybe not in that order. If you only look at Q4 2019 financials, the stock is massively over valued. If you project where the company could be in 3-5 years, then you may want to buckle in for the ride.

Or stay far away. It's all up to you.

I’ll give you the full 5 years in your range. I’ll give you 35% growth annually. End result? Still wildly overvalued!

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10 minutes ago, fantasycurse42 said:

I’ll give you the full 5 years in your range. I’ll give you 35% growth annually. End result? Still wildly overvalued!

So with $112Billion in annual revenue in 2024, you think they would be wildly overvalued at $640?

Edited by Dragons
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50 minutes ago, Dragons said:

So with $112Billion in annual revenue in 2024, you think they would be wildly overvalued at $640?

Revenue <> profit 

Compare to VW 2019 who they’re already worth 15% more, report back.

Oh, and that’s numbers that they’re already achieving. So in a perfect world, 5 years from now, yada yada yada.

Edited by fantasycurse42
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