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24 minutes ago, jb1020 said:

I can totally see that happening as well.  If that's the case I'll just cancel my reservation.  

When I had my 3 I believe it was $4,000 to upgrade to FSD.  I didn't have AP at the time so that would have been another $3k.  I was never interested.  Thats about when Elon said the price will only go up and in 18-20 month or so its steadily been raised to $6k, then $8k now $10k.  

If the price is $15k when the truck finally gets here, I got some instant equity.   $100 down now is the safest bet I've ever made.  

Does your preorder show the price? I put $100 down back when they first accepted orders but my agreement doesn’t have a price. 

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welp, just got rear ended in my 3.  F-550 hit me so hard I went into the 2 cars in front of me.   I got it all on my dash cam.  I'll figure out how to load that up later and post some pics.  I fi

Just put in my order for a Model 3 LR RWD

Picked up my new Model 3 today. Did not play with any autopilot features, was mostly on back roads and wanted the full experience. One pedal driving is so much fun on roads with lots of curves. So is

27 minutes ago, jb1020 said:

I can totally see that happening as well.  If that's the case I'll just cancel my reservation.  

When I had my 3 I believe it was $4,000 to upgrade to FSD.  I didn't have AP at the time so that would have been another $3k.  I was never interested.  Thats about when Elon said the price will only go up and in 18-20 month or so its steadily been raised to $6k, then $8k now $10k.  

If the price is $15k when the truck finally gets here, I got some instant equity.   $100 down now is the safest bet I've ever made.  

Outstanding bet on your part.  My point was that there is a ceiling for FSD.  Those that paid $4000 have basically gotten nothing for it and are halfway through the life cycle of their vehicle.  I'm not a fan of paying for future technology on a depreciating asset.  

I was all set to pull the trigger on something last year, but the upgrades in the pipeline and the falling gas prices made it worthwhile to me to wait a year or two.

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3 minutes ago, East Coast Bias said:

Does your preorder show the price? I put $100 down back when they first accepted orders but my agreement doesn’t have a price. 

No, but when you make the selection on the website it does say this today...yesterday it was $8k.   I guess you're right though...I don't have it anywhere in writing that says I locked it in at $8k?   Guess we just trust them on this?  

Quote

 

$10,000

Selecting Full Self-Driving today will secure your price as it increases in the future.

 

 

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9 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Outstanding bet on your part.  My point was that there is a ceiling for FSD.  Those that paid $4000 have basically gotten nothing for it and are halfway through the life cycle of their vehicle.  I'm not a fan of paying for future technology on a depreciating asset.  

I was all set to pull the trigger on something last year, but the upgrades in the pipeline and the falling gas prices made it worthwhile to me to wait a year or two.

This is why I haven't bought it.  It will be years before that functionality is worth it and I'll be ready for a new car by then, plus there will just continue to be computer hardware upgrades during that time.  I'll let others foot the bill to fund the research phase.

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35 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

This is why I haven't bought it. It will be years before that functionality is worth it and I'll be ready for a new car by then, plus there will just continue to be computer hardware upgrades during that time.  I'll let others foot the bill to fund the research phase.

This is where your justification for price increases will come. At the point your car is actually able to drive you around, there's a price tag to hang on that, and it's probably higher than the speculative price right now.

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11 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

This is where your justification for price increases will come. At the point your car is actually able to drive you around, there's a price tag to hang on that, and it's probably higher than the speculative price right now.

At that time my paint is faded and battery is on it's last legs.  I also have a 250 range when the standard is 500 mi.  I'd rather pay 10k for something I'm going to use for 10 years than 6k for something I get 5 years out of.

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10 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

At that time my paint is faded and battery is on it's last legs. I also have a 250 range when the standard is 500 mi.  I'd rather pay 10k for something I'm going to use for 10 years than 6k for something I get 5 years out of.

I'm agreeing with you. 

But the bold is likely to be a problem no matter when you buy.  I have to think battery tech is just going to keep getting better and better. You're probably not going to own a car with 500 mile range and have 1k be the standard, but 5 years out it'll almost definitely be higher than when you bought.

I have a '15 S. Yes, it sucks to have 230 miles of range rather than 500. It's not likely to change how long I keep the car. I knew what I was getting into when I bought it. It just means I have to have a second that has longer range, which would be the case either way.

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11 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

I'm agreeing with you. 

But the bold is likely to be a problem no matter when you buy.  I have to think battery tech is just going to keep getting better and better. You're probably not going to own a car with 500 mile range and have 1k be the standard, but 5 years out it'll almost definitely be higher than when you bought.

I have a '15 S. Yes, it sucks to have 230 miles of range rather than 500. It's not likely to change how long I keep the car. I knew what I was getting into when I bought it. It just means I have to have a second that has longer range, which would be the case either way.

I think you hit a pretty good sweet spot with your buy.  I would have pulled the trigger last year but gas prices dropping from $3.25 to $1.75 wiped away the savings I was looking at to help make the payment.

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42 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

This is where your justification for price increases will come. At the point your car is actually able to drive you around, there's a price tag to hang on that, and it's probably higher than the speculative price right now.

Right, but I'll be more willing to pay a higher price for something that works than pay a lower price for something that doesn't work and may still require me to get hardware upgrades when it does finally work.

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4 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Right, but I'll be more willing to pay a higher price for something that works than pay a lower price for something that doesn't work and may still require me to get hardware upgrades when it does finally work.

Agree 100%. I ended up with Autopilot because it was one of the features on the car I happened to want to buy. It was not one of the features I required when I started looking. It doesn't do much for me.

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6 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I think you hit a pretty good sweet spot with your buy. I would have pulled the trigger last year but gas prices dropping from $3.25 to $1.75 wiped away the savings I was looking at to help make the payment.

I'm not sure. I have range envy. But for me it was as much about commute time as anything. At the time I was commuting 70+ miles/day. An EV got me access to the HOV lane, which on average probably saved me 15 minutes each way. I calculated that car to be within $10k of my alternative. At some point, my time is worth that.

And gods it's fun to drive.

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I bought the FSD at $8k mostly due to my wife having to relearn how to drive after a medical issue, but I do have a little buyer's remorse.  I think $10k is top of market for FSD.  If I had to choose to buy FSD or air conditioning in the car for $10k, no question it is the AC.   If I was going to Uber or rent my car out as a taxi service, then FSD could be a huge benefit. But that is not me.

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The really cool thing is that Chevrolet has now confirmed that it will sell a crate electric powertrain to the aftermarket the same way it sells crate internal combustion engines.

"Minutes after Chevrolet showed the E-10 concept [in 2019], customers started calling to ask how soon they could build their EV project," said Russ O’Blenes, Chevrolet director of engineering, Performance and Racing. "The K5 Blazer-E demonstrates what is possible for customers who want to convert their vintage truck to a daily driver with the instant torque and unique driving experience of an EV. For customers who want more extreme performance, the modular eCrate system will have virtually limitless applications."

The Electric Connect and Cruise package goes on sale in the second half of 2021 and includes a Bolt EV motor, battery pack, DC-to-AC inverter, a DC-to-DC converter, wiring harnesses, controllers, and water pumps for battery heating and cooling. It's also putting together a certification program for installers, beginning with Lingenfelter Performance Engineering—builder of wild Corvettes—in Michigan

 

https://arstechnica.com/cars/2020/10/chevrolet-readies-an-electric-crate-motor-for-homebuilt-ev-hotrods/

 

 

Tesla may have a head start, but other manufacturers will catch up pretty quick.

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10k is crazy for an option like this.  If it was a lifetime purchase, then it makes (some) sense.  Meaning the software follows you to your next Tesla, but they are disabling it.

I'd also like to see how the insurance companies pay out on a totaled car with this option, you could see them not paying it out at full price but depreciated price even though the resale value is 0.

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12 minutes ago, culdeus said:

10k is crazy for an option like this.  If it was a lifetime purchase, then it makes (some) sense.  Meaning the software follows you to your next Tesla, but they are disabling it.

I'd also like to see how the insurance companies pay out on a totaled car with this option, you could see them not paying it out at full price but depreciated price even though the resale value is 0.

Its accounted for in the value of the car when its totaled, unfortunately I know.  

They don't disable it either, its sticks with the Car for life.  

There is talk of a subscription service for the FSD one day.  That make sense.  Will be really high though. 

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5 minutes ago, jb1020 said:

Its accounted for in the value of the car when its totaled, unfortunately I know.  

They don't disable it either, its sticks with the Car for life.  

There is talk of a subscription service for the FSD one day.  That make sense.  Will be really high though. 

 

FSD monthly subscriptions are supposed to go live next year.

Also, nowhere near set in stone, but on the last conference call they said they would consider allowing you to transfer your FSD subscription to a new Tesla (for a fee).

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  • 3 weeks later...

Going to take a look at this one today, it's pretty low miles, so low it's a little suspicious.  Looks like from car fax it was in Manhattan perhaps for a couple years, then bounced around at auction.  Anything I should look for specifically?

 

https://www.earthmotorcars.com/used/Tesla/2017-Tesla-Model+S-for-sale-dallas-fort-worth-texas-bebd1d700a0e0ae706926f419e760972.htm

 

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16 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Going to take a look at this one today, it's pretty low miles, so low it's a little suspicious.  Looks like from car fax it was in Manhattan perhaps for a couple years, then bounced around at auction.  Anything I should look for specifically?

 

https://www.earthmotorcars.com/used/Tesla/2017-Tesla-Model+S-for-sale-dallas-fort-worth-texas-bebd1d700a0e0ae706926f419e760972.htm

 

Looks like Tesla itself has better prices for a 2017 75D.  The difference between 8k and 20k mileage is nothing, but it's looking like an average of 5k less on the Tesla site.  If you still decide to go look at this, make sure you check the car itself for what software options it has.

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18 minutes ago, Foosball God said:

Looks like Tesla itself has better prices for a 2017 75D.  The difference between 8k and 20k mileage is nothing, but it's looking like an average of 5k less on the Tesla site.  If you still decide to go look at this, make sure you check the car itself for what software options it has.

The one here has 4k in installed software options, I assume the EAP package at some point was 4k, they say it can go to FSD for 4k.  I need to do homework on whether this is correct.

The one on CPO site that I'm looking at is this, but there are no actual pictures yet. Usually if they have no actual pictures it means it's already sold.

https://www.tesla.com/used/5YJSA1E24HF190355?token=$2y$10$xjHdB3jF1Iq8Y3jB7UhU8Ol6Q.3DOq8EogvqWwchlDplRuusNSEle&postal=75080&coord=32.9636,-96.7468&redirect=no

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On 1/30/2020 at 1:49 PM, Todem said:

The stock is one of the ultimate house of cards I have seen in quite some time. Makes zero sense....like literally zero sense and at some point....it will get very very ugly for people who are not smart enough to pat themselves on the back and take a huge profit. The shorts will come back in force. Because a good portion of this was short covering. And the other pure euphoric cult behavior.

Where is the moat? It has none at this point.

I stay away from stocks like this.  

Fair value? I can't even put a price on that...but my opinion is 275-300 a share tops.

SELL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Take the money and run folks. The EPS on this stock was $2.14 

The stock price is freaking 646 plus. Lord people. Get out if you made a ton of money......seriously. 

They well may be a viable company in the future....but I do not see anything fundamentally to support a stock price like this. It is lunacy.

 

On 1/30/2020 at 9:17 PM, Todem said:

Oh I understand what they do......LOL!!!!! The stock price is simply not sustainable at these levels.

You will find out soon enough.

 

On 1/30/2020 at 10:06 PM, Dragons said:

 

I would say that you clearly do not understand the company.

The stock price will go down, it will go up. Maybe not in that order. If you only look at Q4 2019 financials, the stock is massively over valued. If you project where the company could be in 3-5 years, then you may want to buckle in for the ride.

Or stay far away. It's all up to you.

I know there's a stock thread, but I was reminiscing on this thread tonight. One of these posts aged well.

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On 1/30/2020 at 11:11 PM, fantasycurse42 said:

Revenue <> profit 

Compare to VW 2019 who they’re already worth 15% more, report back.

Oh, and that’s numbers that they’re already achieving. So in a perfect world, 5 years from now, yada yada yada.

Meant to include this one.

 

Also, I hope Nugget took action on the information I PM'd him.

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Ended up getting a '21 LR M3.  Also installing solar.  

Long term I'll probably get a used S for myself, have M3 for wife and will dump a very used ICE Volvo SUV on my daughter that can be used for long drives in a pinch.  

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6 minutes ago, culdeus said:

Ended up getting a '21 LR M3.  Also installing solar.  

Long term I'll probably get a used S for myself, have M3 for wife and will dump a very used ICE Volvo SUV on my daughter that can be used for long drives in a pinch.  

Congrats.

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35 minutes ago, Dragons said:

 

 

I know there's a stock thread, but I was reminiscing on this thread tonight. One of these posts aged well.

Yeah he missed.  That said, if my numbers are right, Tesla's market cap is about $800,000 per each of it's million cards on the road.

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I will say the process for trying to get a Used S, which was probably my first choice, was confusing and disjointed.  I couldn't get a really interested party from Tesla that would help and most of the cars that have hit dealer lots are ones that Tesla has auctioned off or came into them on a trade that Tesla passed on.  

However, if you are really interested and willing to do a lot of work and perhaps travel you can get a really good deal on S/X.

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10 hours ago, BassNBrew said:

Yeah he missed.  That said, if my numbers are right, Tesla's market cap is about $800,000 per each of it's million cards on the road.

Yeah I missed it. But no one bats a 1000. And you know @BassNBrew how many I have hit on.....many many many stocks we have floruished. 

And TSLA is still about as whacked of a stock price I have ever seen in my entire life of investing. But...it does not matter.....until it does. It always ends up mattering at some point. So if TSLA does end up dominating the world in EV it will be at some point justified. But if they don’t......oh boy. 

Anyway kudos to those that made a fortune in TSLA. 

There were plenty of other positions (stocks) to do the same in the world. 

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15 minutes ago, Todem said:

Yeah I missed it. But no one bats a 1000. And you know @BassNBrew how many I have hit on.....many many many stocks we have floruished. 

And TSLA is still about as whacked of a stock price I have ever seen in my entire life of investing. But...it does not matter.....until it does. It always ends up mattering at some point. So if TSLA does end up dominating the world in EV it will be at some point justified. But if they don’t......oh boy. 

Anyway kudos to those that made a fortune in TSLA. 

There were plenty of other positions (stocks) to do the same in the world. 

Numerous.  

Only a few people are going to own the best stock.  Personally I'd rather risk my cash on suggestions you make that are fundamentally sound rather than a momentum stock like TSLA.  I say this as some who wants to buy a Telsa and likes Elon.  Right now TSLA is valued more than all the other car companies in the world.  They aren't ever going to own 50% of the market.  Competition is coming after them as we speak. 

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1 hour ago, BassNBrew said:

Numerous.  

Only a few people are going to own the best stock.  Personally I'd rather risk my cash on suggestions you make that are fundamentally sound rather than a momentum stock like TSLA.  I say this as some who wants to buy a Telsa and likes Elon.  Right now TSLA is valued more than all the other car companies in the world.  They aren't ever going to own 50% of the market.  Competition is coming after them as we speak. 

As others have pointed out market cap isn't really the best measure, the intrinsic value with all the debt they carry is a better measure which is perhaps more realistic (ok it isn't, but whatever).  It's beyond crazy the valuation, but other ICE->EV makers are so far behind at this point and are making nearly no inroads.  The only real challenges seem to be from pure EVs.

The driving experience in the cars is beyond anything I've seen.  I got in all the models and different flavors of them over the last couple months, nothing compares.  I can see nearly vertical growth happening here as more people get exposure. 

You can get in a basic M3 now for about 35k that hardly depreciates, and has nearly no cost of ownership outside of tires and windshield fluids.  And it's sexy as hell.  No other car maker has as compelling a EV and they've been at it for 5-10 years now.

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48 minutes ago, culdeus said:

As others have pointed out market cap isn't really the best measure, the intrinsic value with all the debt they carry is a better measure which is perhaps more realistic (ok it isn't, but whatever).  It's beyond crazy the valuation, but other ICE->EV makers are so far behind at this point and are making nearly no inroads.  The only real challenges seem to be from pure EVs.

The driving experience in the cars is beyond anything I've seen.  I got in all the models and different flavors of them over the last couple months, nothing compares.  I can see nearly vertical growth happening here as more people get exposure. 

You can get in a basic M3 now for about 35k that hardly depreciates, and has nearly no cost of ownership outside of tires and windshield fluids.  And it's sexy as hell.  No other car maker has as compelling a EV and they've been at it for 5-10 years now.

Yes to all this. Once you get in one it ruins other cars. Gas cars in particular seem pretty ridiculous. Long range, rapid charging is the last barrier.

Competition is ramping up fast though. EV's are absolutely the future and now you have every major car company coming after them and many start-ups.

 

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1 minute ago, The General said:

Yes to all this. Once you get in one it ruins other cars. Gas cars in particular seem pretty ridiculous. Long range, rapid charging is the last barrier.

Competition is ramping up fast though. EV's are absolutely the future and now you have every major car company coming after them and many start-ups.

 

https://www.tesla.com/trips#/?v=M3_2020_LongRange&o=Dallas, TX, USA_Dallas Dallas County TX@32.7766642,-96.79698789999999&s=&d=Pensacola, FL, USA_Pensacola Escambia County FL@30.42130899999999,-87.2169149

This is 2021 high speed charging on LR M3.  This is like a fart longer than it would take me in an ICE.  One thing that isn't broadcast widely is the 2021 M3 LR and LRP got a super fast super charger capability.

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1 minute ago, culdeus said:

https://www.tesla.com/trips#/?v=M3_2020_LongRange&o=Dallas, TX, USA_Dallas Dallas County TX@32.7766642,-96.79698789999999&s=&d=Pensacola, FL, USA_Pensacola Escambia County FL@30.42130899999999,-87.2169149

This is 2021 high speed charging on LR M3.  This is like a fart longer than it would take me in an ICE.  One thing that isn't broadcast widely is the 2021 M3 LR and LRP got a super fast super charger capability.

Charging grid is similar in my area. It still isn't as nice driving long distances in an EV as it is a gas car. II have found that my milage isn't what my car says it is going to be unless conditions are perfect and I drive in a very, very lame manner. It's very hilly where I live, mountains involved, cold weather at times, etc. 

This will no doubt improve though as battery tech, charging tech improves. This can't be stopped at this point, too much momentum.

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9 minutes ago, culdeus said:

https://www.tesla.com/trips#/?v=M3_2020_LongRange&o=Dallas, TX, USA_Dallas Dallas County TX@32.7766642,-96.79698789999999&s=&d=Pensacola, FL, USA_Pensacola Escambia County FL@30.42130899999999,-87.2169149

This is 2021 high speed charging on LR M3.  This is like a fart longer than it would take me in an ICE.  One thing that isn't broadcast widely is the 2021 M3 LR and LRP got a super fast super charger capability.

Yeah, and the ####ers are going to force those of us with older models to buy new to ever get there.

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Just now, Sideshow Bob said:

Yeah, and the ####ers are going to force those of us with older models to buy new to ever get there.

I don't know this is true, there are reasons they may add this in later software updates.  Though you could easily be skeptical about whether there is motivation to do so, yes.  

There are limitations of the battery chemistries, which are being improved.  The next refresh of the S/X should represent the best available as well.

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2 minutes ago, culdeus said:

I don't know this is true, there are reasons they may add this in later software updates.  Though you could easily be skeptical about whether there is motivation to do so, yes.  

There are limitations of the battery chemistries, which are being improved.  The next refresh of the S/X should represent the best available as well.

I have a '15 S 70 that gets 230 on a full charge, which would take over an hour at a Supercharger. I doubt I will ever be given a serious/worthwhile option to improve either of those. And I get it. I knew what I was getting when I bought it.

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1 minute ago, Sideshow Bob said:

I have a '15 S 70 that gets 230 on a full charge, which would take over an hour at a Supercharger. I doubt I will ever be given a serious/worthwhile option to improve either of those. And I get it. I knew what I was getting when I bought it.

Nah, not with the chemistry that was available at the time.  There's little that can be done.  

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3 hours ago, Todem said:

Yeah I missed it. But no one bats a 1000. And you know @BassNBrew how many I have hit on.....many many many stocks we have floruished. 

And TSLA is still about as whacked of a stock price I have ever seen in my entire life of investing. But...it does not matter.....until it does. It always ends up mattering at some point. So if TSLA does end up dominating the world in EV it will be at some point justified. But if they don’t......oh boy. 

Anyway kudos to those that made a fortune in TSLA. 

There were plenty of other positions (stocks) to do the same in the world. 

I believe everyone should invest in things they understand and stay away from things they don't. I'm not at all intending to compare gains from the past year. However, not understanding a stock and screaming from the roof top to get out are two dramatically different things. If someone actually took your advice, hopefully they found one of the other positions instead.

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2 hours ago, culdeus said:

As others have pointed out market cap isn't really the best measure, the intrinsic value with all the debt they carry is a better measure which is perhaps more realistic (ok it isn't, but whatever).  It's beyond crazy the valuation, but other ICE->EV makers are so far behind at this point and are making nearly no inroads.  The only real challenges seem to be from pure EVs.

The driving experience in the cars is beyond anything I've seen.  I got in all the models and different flavors of them over the last couple months, nothing compares.  I can see nearly vertical growth happening here as more people get exposure. 

You can get in a basic M3 now for about 35k that hardly depreciates, and has nearly no cost of ownership outside of tires and windshield fluids.  And it's sexy as hell.  No other car maker has as compelling a EV and they've been at it for 5-10 years now.

This.

Anyone who says Tesla has no moat, clearly still does not understand the company.

The competition is virtually non-existent outside of China, the major OEMs are still only making compliance cars in small volumes (except for VW).

Stolen from the Tesla investment forum:

The bar to be competitive with Tesla is rising ...
- in 2009 you needed to produce a few thousand sportscars at a 6 figure price
- in 2012 you needed to produce some tens of thousands family sedans with 250miles range under $100k and think about charging
- in 2015 you needed to produce even 7-seater SUV with AWD, fastcharging, connectivity
- in 2018 you needed to produce hundred thousand family sedans with 300miles range at $50k
- in 2021 you need to produce 500 thousand sport sedans with 350 miles range under 50k with supercharging, connectivity, autonomy
- in 2024 you may very well just call it a day

 

 

And this is just the EV manufacturing portion of the company.

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Those are all production comments. It's still the infrastructure that's the biggest hurdle imo. Producing those cars gets you to the floor/lot. People have to buy them, which means they have to understand how they're going to drive them. Which means they need assurance their experience is going to at least mimic what they have today. The Supercharger network doesn't get you there. But it gets you close enough to accept the gap. Right now that gap is a crater for everyone else. Infrastructure or battery superiority is the only way to close it. 

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39 minutes ago, Dragons said:

I believe everyone should invest in things they understand and stay away from things they don't. I'm not at all intending to compare gains from the past year. However, not understanding a stock and screaming from the roof top to get out are two dramatically different things. If someone actually took your advice, hopefully they found one of the other positions instead.

In the stock thread I gave a master list. It has performed fantastic. 

So yes I hope they headed the free advice I gave back in March when the world was going into the zombie apocalypse. LOL. 

Anyway. All good. And again. I was wrong on this one. Not the first time....not the last time.

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20 minutes ago, Sideshow Bob said:

Those are all production comments. It's still the infrastructure that's the biggest hurdle imo. Producing those cars gets you to the floor/lot. People have to buy them, which means they have to understand how they're going to drive them. Which means they need assurance their experience is going to at least mimic what they have today. The Supercharger network doesn't get you there. But it gets you close enough to accept the gap. Right now that gap is a crater for everyone else. Infrastructure or battery superiority is the only way to close it. 

It's getting really, really close.  The infrastructure gap that may exist may be demand base for charging, rather than the technical issues associated with delivering it in a timely manner.  Meaning the conversation on RaNG3 A//\G1eTY will switch from batteries to stalls in 2022 (IMO).  

The route I highlighted very well may show what is more or less equivalence to a full day of driving on ICE.  I can't imagine getting much further in 12hrs on gas.  Whether that site is realistic is debatable.  But at least you can envision a world that 12hrs of EV and 12hrs of ICE driving can take you nearly the same distance now.  That wasn't even thought to be near attainable in 2016 at this point.  

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  • 3 months later...
5 hours ago, whoknew said:

Tesla Crash

I'm sorry these guys died but man, this is stupid.

Supposedly there wasn't Full Self Driving even available on car so something is definitely fishy.  That said, I have Autopilot, not FSD, and I almost never use it.  I'm more tense when it's on then when I'm driving myself.

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16 hours ago, whoknew said:

Tesla Crash

I'm sorry these guys died but man, this is stupid.

 

It's still not clear what the hell they did, or why there wasn't anyone in the front seat.  

Even if you sat in the drivers seat and just floored it I don't think you have time to engage the AP and set the limit to 80+

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currently mapping my trip from Austin to Oregon in August.  I really need the supercharger in Burns, OR to finish.

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2 hours ago, culdeus said:

It's still not clear what the hell they did, or why there wasn't anyone in the front seat.  

Even if you sat in the drivers seat and just floored it I don't think you have time to engage the AP and set the limit to 80+

Theory from another board:

Quote

 

I was thinking about the accident some more, and the control interface with the cruise control and autopilot seems like something interesting that hasn’t been mentioned. I have no idea how they got the car moving, or kept it moving, with no driver. Perhaps starting driving, then engaging autospeed or autosteer, and then leaving the driver’s seat. As said, if no butt in the seat doesn’t disable everything as soon as possible, then it’s a serious oversight. No butt in the seat of stopped car will put it in park.

Anyway, some background. In the Model S cruise control and autosteer are managed with a stalk on the left side of the steering wheel below the turn signal lever. Pulling the stalk towards the driver once engages cruise control, and a double pull engages autosteer/autopilot/FSD (whatever is available on that particular car and at that particular location). Pushing the stalk away from the driver disables all automatic control.

Pushing up on the stalk a small amount adds 1 MPH to the cruise control set speed. Pushing up all the way adds 5 MPH to the set speed. The set speed is decreased for pushing down.

In Autopilot on a freeway the speed can be increased up to 90 MPH or something. In autosteer or FSD on a surface street the speed can only be increased 5 MPH more than what the car thinks the speed limit is. If only cruise control is enabled (not autosteer or FSD) then the cruise control speed can be increased to 90 MPH or whatever. This, to my scenario is the key point.

So, the guy gets the car moving, puts it in autosomething mode, and jumps into the backseat. Then, perhaps because the car doesn’t have FSD, it doesn’t bother to follow the road, so somebody reaches over to turn things off with the stalk. From the awkward position in the back seat or the passenger seat, they manage to instead increase the set speed. Multiple times. So with each additional grab, the car is going 5 MPH faster, and is out of control. Perhaps the speed was increased on purpose.

Normally autoeverything can be disengaged by pressing the brake, but that’s not possible in this case.

What makes me suspect the car was never in autosteer is the 5 MPH over the speed limit restriction in that mode. It is absolutely possible that the car thought they were on a 65 MPH road, but I’ve never seen that error. I have seen the car think the speed limit is lower than posted.

 

 

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25 minutes ago, Doug B said:

Theory from another board:

 

That seems most logical.  If Autopilot is engaged, but no one is in the front seat, it will slow down and and put itself in park.  Same thing if you don't keep your hands on the wheel while in AP.  

For whatever reason it seems obvious that the guy in the front passenger street just kept hammering down on the cruise control?  To even put the car in drive you have to be in the front seat and have your foot on the brake.  Someone was driving at some point.   

I guess anything is possible, but this just doesn't seem like an AP issue.  

 

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I mean how about this theory.

Guy gets in the car, not being familiar with the power and floors it and loses control mistaking gas for break and hits the trees, he then crawls over the driver seat because the door was stuck closed and tried to get out and burned alive.  

It's been speculated (I don't trust anything) the passenger was not wearing seatbelt. 

I think it's highly likely FSD/AP/EAP/CC was not in use for even one rotation of the wheel.  It's just too hard to get it to engage as it is when running with stripes, let alone from a dead stop where there are no stripes.

-----------------

The actions required above are from the perspective of a Model S/X owner, my Model 3 is all right stalk controlled for this with the increase coming from the right scroll wheel.  That (Model 3) would be a lot easier to mess with from the passenger seat.  So you are now asking passenger to reach across the wheel (in this situation) to get to the stalk of the S/X.

-------------------

TLDR I doubt AP played even the slightest role in any of this.

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