:MERGED: Let's talk Keyshawn Johnson (1 Viewer)

sartre said:

SSOG said:

... doesn't change the fact that he has NEVER IN HIS CAREER finished as low as 30th

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You keep mentioning this. But only ONCE IN TEN YEARS has Keyshawn finished inside the top 20! If that isn't a limited ceiling, I don't know what is.Sure he might have some value this year, but locking in a WR3 that barely beats out the baseline is not going to win anyone a championship. As others have said, he may be decent bye week filler, but I'd rather take a stab at a guy with a low floor and high ceiling.

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That's not true, and disingenuous anyway. He's finished in the top 20 TWICE (5th and 12th), and on top of that, he's finished 21st, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. That's 6 out of 9 seasons that he's finished as a WR2 or better. You'll notice I said 6 out of 9 seasons... I didn't count the season where he got suspended. Still, if you pro-rate his numbers over 16 games that year, he would have finished 20th in the NFL in WR scoring, which would make 70% of the time in this guy's career that he's finished the year as a solid #2 WR. He's not, as you said, a "WR3 that barely beats out the baseline". In fact, his WORST finish is WR28, which still makes him one of the best WR3s in the league, and this is AT HIS WORST.Again, though, his high ceiling isn't the result of Keyshawn's production, it's a result of his situation. Carolina has had two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WRs totally dominate the competition for two straight years now. It's looking very much like Carolina might be for WR1s what Denver is to RB1s. Saying Keyshawn doesn't have a high ceiling is like saying Mike Bell or Tatum Bell doesn't have a high ceiling- with all due respect, I think I'm going to have to beg to differ.

Besides, there's one last comparison to be made here. Let's compare Keyshawn to Eddie Kennison. Kennison's never finished higher than 17th (his rookie year A DECADE AGO). Kennison is as old as Keyshawn, and less naturally talented. Kennison has played 14 or more games and failed to finish as a top-36 (i.e. starter-caliber WR) 5 times in 9 years... and yet, Eddie Kennison is being drafted as a top-30 WR (compared to WR36 for Keyshawn) and has made pretty much every single "most underrated WR" list for the last 3 years.

SSOG said:

That's not true, and disingenuous anyway. He's finished in the top 20 TWICE (5th and 12th), and on top of that, he's finished 21st, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. That's 6 out of 9 seasons that he's finished as a WR2 or better. You'll notice I said 6 out of 9 seasons... I didn't count the season where he got suspended. Still, if you pro-rate his numbers over 16 games that year, he would have finished 20th in the NFL in WR scoring, which would make 70% of the time in this guy's career that he's finished the year as a solid #2 WR. He's not, as you said, a "WR3 that barely beats out the baseline". In fact, his WORST finish is WR28, which still makes him one of the best WR3s in the league, and this is AT HIS WORST.Again, though, his high ceiling isn't the result of Keyshawn's production, it's a result of his situation. Carolina has had two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WRs totally dominate the competition for two straight years now. It's looking very much like Carolina might be for WR1s what Denver is to RB1s. Saying Keyshawn doesn't have a high ceiling is like saying Mike Bell or Tatum Bell doesn't have a high ceiling- with all due respect, I think I'm going to have to beg to differ.Besides, there's one last comparison to be made here. Let's compare Keyshawn to Eddie Kennison. Kennison's never finished higher than 17th (his rookie year A DECADE AGO). Kennison is as old as Keyshawn, and less naturally talented. Kennison has played 14 or more games and failed to finish as a top-36 (i.e. starter-caliber WR) 5 times in 9 years... and yet, Eddie Kennison is being drafted as a top-30 WR (compared to WR36 for Keyshawn) and has made pretty much every single "most underrated WR" list for the last 3 years.

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I'm not sure Kennison is a fair comparison. He is the WR1 @ KC, while Key is a WR2. most people would (correctly, IMO) rather draft a WR1 than a WR2 (I wouldn't - I think Kennison sucks regardless of his role).Regarding Key's situation in Carolina - again, he is a WR2 in that system - SSmith is WR1, barring a significant injury. WR2 in Carolina has not traditionally scored highly. Now - assume SSmith does get hurt - does Key become WR1? I seriously don't think his role changes. Key is a possession - move the chains - guy, not a go deep guy. To continue with your Bronco RB analagy, Key is like TBell - he is in the #2 role, regardless of who is in the #1 position.

SSOG said:

sartre said:

SSOG said:

... doesn't change the fact that he has NEVER IN HIS CAREER finished as low as 30th

Click to expand...

You keep mentioning this. But only ONCE IN TEN YEARS has Keyshawn finished inside the top 20! If that isn't a limited ceiling, I don't know what is.Sure he might have some value this year, but locking in a WR3 that barely beats out the baseline is not going to win anyone a championship. As others have said, he may be decent bye week filler, but I'd rather take a stab at a guy with a low floor and high ceiling.

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That's not true, and disingenuous anyway. He's finished in the top 20 TWICE (5th and 12th), and on top of that, he's finished 21st, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. That's 6 out of 9 seasons that he's finished as a WR2 or better. You'll notice I said 6 out of 9 seasons... I didn't count the season where he got suspended. Still, if you pro-rate his numbers over 16 games that year, he would have finished 20th in the NFL in WR scoring, which would make 70% of the time in this guy's career that he's finished the year as a solid #2 WR. He's not, as you said, a "WR3 that barely beats out the baseline". In fact, his WORST finish is WR28, which still makes him one of the best WR3s in the league, and this is AT HIS WORST.

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I'm sorry, you are right, he had TWO top 20 finishes in his career. Out of the last six years, he finished outside the top20 one hundred percent of the time -- at best, a lesser WR2. That's not disingenuous. Personally I don't care to discount or prorate his suspended games, as the attitude that caused that suspension has always been part of the Keyshawn package.If Smith misses any significant time, then Keyshawn could be solid WR2 material. Otherwise, you are looking at a guy with a ceiling of low WR2 potential, but most likely a guy that you would play only as WR3 when he has a good matchup. I'd much rather take a gamble on the young buck that has a possible breakout year ahead of him.

moleculo said:

SSOG said:

That's not true, and disingenuous anyway. He's finished in the top 20 TWICE (5th and 12th), and on top of that, he's finished 21st, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. That's 6 out of 9 seasons that he's finished as a WR2 or better. You'll notice I said 6 out of 9 seasons... I didn't count the season where he got suspended. Still, if you pro-rate his numbers over 16 games that year, he would have finished 20th in the NFL in WR scoring, which would make 70% of the time in this guy's career that he's finished the year as a solid #2 WR. He's not, as you said, a "WR3 that barely beats out the baseline". In fact, his WORST finish is WR28, which still makes him one of the best WR3s in the league, and this is AT HIS WORST.

Again, though, his high ceiling isn't the result of Keyshawn's production, it's a result of his situation. Carolina has had two COMPLETELY DIFFERENT WRs totally dominate the competition for two straight years now. It's looking very much like Carolina might be for WR1s what Denver is to RB1s. Saying Keyshawn doesn't have a high ceiling is like saying Mike Bell or Tatum Bell doesn't have a high ceiling- with all due respect, I think I'm going to have to beg to differ.

Besides, there's one last comparison to be made here. Let's compare Keyshawn to Eddie Kennison. Kennison's never finished higher than 17th (his rookie year A DECADE AGO). Kennison is as old as Keyshawn, and less naturally talented. Kennison has played 14 or more games and failed to finish as a top-36 (i.e. starter-caliber WR) 5 times in 9 years... and yet, Eddie Kennison is being drafted as a top-30 WR (compared to WR36 for Keyshawn) and has made pretty much every single "most underrated WR" list for the last 3 years.

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I'm not sure Kennison is a fair comparison. He is the WR1 @ KC, while Key is a WR2. most people would (correctly, IMO) rather draft a WR1 than a WR2 (I wouldn't - I think Kennison sucks regardless of his role).Regarding Key's situation in Carolina - again, he is a WR2 in that system - SSmith is WR1, barring a significant injury. WR2 in Carolina has not traditionally scored highly. Now - assume SSmith does get hurt - does Key become WR1? I seriously don't think his role changes. Key is a possession - move the chains - guy, not a go deep guy. To continue with your Bronco RB analagy, Key is like TBell - he is in the #2 role, regardless of who is in the #1 position.

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WR2 in Carolina has scored just fine whenever there have been two decent WRs. Look at 2003. Muhammad and Smiff were both in town. Smiff finished 15th and Muhammad finished 32nd. That was Delhomme's first year as a starter, so I expect a better showing from the WR1 and WR2 this season.Also, while Kennison may be the WR1, he's the #2 passing option, just like Keyshawn. I think the comparison is pretty good.

sartre said:

SSOG said:

That's not true, and disingenuous anyway. He's finished in the top 20 TWICE (5th and 12th), and on top of that, he's finished 21st, 21st, 22nd, and 23rd. That's 6 out of 9 seasons that he's finished as a WR2 or better. You'll notice I said 6 out of 9 seasons... I didn't count the season where he got suspended. Still, if you pro-rate his numbers over 16 games that year, he would have finished 20th in the NFL in WR scoring, which would make 70% of the time in this guy's career that he's finished the year as a solid #2 WR. He's not, as you said, a "WR3 that barely beats out the baseline". In fact, his WORST finish is WR28, which still makes him one of the best WR3s in the league, and this is AT HIS WORST.

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I'm sorry, you are right, he had TWO top 20 finishes in his career. Out of the last six years, he finished outside the top20 one hundred percent of the time -- at best, a lesser WR2. That's not disingenuous. Personally I don't care to discount or prorate his suspended games, as the attitude that caused that suspension has always been part of the Keyshawn package.If Smith misses any significant time, then Keyshawn could be solid WR2 material. Otherwise, you are looking at a guy with a ceiling of low WR2 potential, but most likely a guy that you would play only as WR3 when he has a good matchup. I'd much rather take a gamble on the young buck that has a possible breakout year ahead of him.

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There's that top-20 cutoff again. That's a pretty arbitrary cutoff. I wonder why you chose that. Could it be that expanding to top-24 adds 4 more quality finishes to Keyshawn's career?The reason I discount the suspension is because I give Keyshawn a roughly 0% chance of getting himself suspended again this season. Yes, the attitude is always part of the package, but how many players have EVER gotten suspended the same season they got signed to a substantial FA deal? Daryl Gardner's the only one I can think of, but that's a different attitude issue altogether- Gardner was a genuine certified malcontent with actual psychological issues that wound up taking him out of football entirely. Keyshawn is not a malcontent, and has no psychological issues (or at least, none that will hinder him from playing football).

Also, again, you keep talking about how Keyshawn's ceiling is a low WR2. First off, a WR3 floor with a WR2 ceiling isn't bad at all for a WR4 or WR5. Second off, you keep completely ignoring my main point regarding Keyshawn's ceiling- Carolina has recently been to WRs what Denver has been to RBs. If you're the #1 WR in Carolina, historically, you're going to be an absolute stud. Delhomme has a history of boosting his WRs ypc. In fact, many of these same arguements were probably made against picking Muhsin Muhammad in 2004 (he's got a low ceiling, etc).

Edit: Actually, lets throw out the names of Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn as further examples of aging WRs with "limited ceilings" who wound up surprising everyone in recent years. Just because Keyshawn is aging and hasn't been a stud recently doesn't mean he has a limited ceiling. Production is as much a product of opportunity as it is of talent.

I play in a scoring only Dynasty league and wanted to lock in a bunch of the rookie RB's this year so I traded and schemed for early picks and got Addai, Maroney, Norwood and Harrison. No early picks to spend on WRs. I had been targeting Keyshawn all along and got him very late in our draft. I am counting on his size being a factor for looks at the goal-line. He is my WR1 so I am putting a lot of my eggs in one basket. I'm very much hoping you're right SSOG.

Chreesto said:

I play in a scoring only Dynasty league and wanted to lock in a bunch of the rookie RB's this year so I traded and schemed for early picks and got Addai, Maroney, Norwood and Harrison. No early picks to spend on WRs. I had been targeting Keyshawn all along and got him very late in our draft. I am counting on his size being a factor for looks at the goal-line. He is my WR1 so I am putting a lot of my eggs in one basket. I'm very much hoping you're right SSOG.

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If he's your #1 WR you're in big big trouble. His upside is about 1000 yards and 7-8 TDs, and that's his upside!!! I'm guessing 800 yards and 5-6 TDs are more likely

Hue G said:

Chreesto said:

I play in a scoring only Dynasty league and wanted to lock in a bunch of the rookie RB's this year so I traded and schemed for early picks and got Addai, Maroney, Norwood and Harrison. No early picks to spend on WRs. I had been targeting Keyshawn all along and got him very late in our draft. I am counting on his size being a factor for looks at the goal-line. He is my WR1 so I am putting a lot of my eggs in one basket. I'm very much hoping you're right SSOG.

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If he's your #1 WR you're in big big trouble. His upside is about 1000 yards and 7-8 TDs, and that's his upside!!! I'm guessing 800 yards and 5-6 TDs are more likely

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Actually I have made a living in our league trying to score young backs. There are some obscure rules in our leagues that make young runningbacks extremely valuable and I have won superbowls with terrible receivers before. If Keyshawn gets 8 I'd be thrilled.

Chreesto said:

Hue G said:

Chreesto said:

I play in a scoring only Dynasty league and wanted to lock in a bunch of the rookie RB's this year so I traded and schemed for early picks and got Addai, Maroney, Norwood and Harrison. No early picks to spend on WRs. I had been targeting Keyshawn all along and got him very late in our draft. I am counting on his size being a factor for looks at the goal-line. He is my WR1 so I am putting a lot of my eggs in one basket. I'm very much hoping you're right SSOG.

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If he's your #1 WR you're in big big trouble. His upside is about 1000 yards and 7-8 TDs, and that's his upside!!! I'm guessing 800 yards and 5-6 TDs are more likely

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Actually I have made a living in our league trying to score young backs. There are some obscure rules in our leagues that make young runningbacks extremely valuable and I have won superbowls with terrible receivers before. If Keyshawn gets 8 I'd be thrilled.

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Maybe, but I have to say, I'd be terrified if Keyshawn was my #1 option (although in one league that drafted really early, he might wind up being my #1 WR by the end of the season :X ). He's an acceptable #2 or a phenominal #3 with solid upside of Smiff gets hurt, but he's no week-in, week-out worldbeater.

First of all, I know there is already a topic on Smith's injury. However, related spefically to those owners with K. Johnson on their roster....I'm wondering if you give him the nod this week w/ Smith most likely being on the shelf. I personally have him starting in a flex position over Mason, Kevin Jones and Rhodes.

Anyone else plugging him in this week? Who are you benching in his place?

One word. Drew Carter.

redman said:

One word. Drew Carter.

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One word? I've got Carter too, but I like Keyshaun to put up better numbers this week.

Deuce said:

redman said:

One word. Drew Carter.

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One word? I've got Carter too, but I like Keyshaun to put up better numbers this week.

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DrewCarterIn a PPR league, Keyshawn's a better play, but he essentially fills their TE role and will catch passes from 0-15 yards out. Smith, and in his absence Carter, will get the big plays. I have a feeling that Hall will be on Keyshawn, so I like Carter's matchup.

I don't know about over Mason.

Just subbed in Keyshawn in place of Joe Horn in a PPR league. Still kind of on the fence, but leaning towards the Key...

SSOG said:

sartre said:

I'm sorry, you are right, he had TWO top 20 finishes in his career. Out of the last six years, he finished outside the top20 one hundred percent of the time -- at best, a lesser WR2. That's not disingenuous. Personally I don't care to discount or prorate his suspended games, as the attitude that caused that suspension has always been part of the Keyshawn package.

If Smith misses any significant time, then Keyshawn could be solid WR2 material. Otherwise, you are looking at a guy with a ceiling of low WR2 potential, but most likely a guy that you would play only as WR3 when he has a good matchup. I'd much rather take a gamble on the young buck that has a possible breakout year ahead of him.

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There's that top-20 cutoff again. That's a pretty arbitrary cutoff. I wonder why you chose that. Could it be that expanding to top-24 adds 4 more quality finishes to Keyshawn's career?

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It's as arbitrary as you using choosing to say he's never finished outside the top 30. Bottom line is, if WR22 is your starting 2nd WR, then your WR2 is poorer than most everyone else's in a 12-man league. As a third WR, WR22-WR28 may be adequate, but I would bet you'd probably sit that guy numerous times when a comparable bench player had a good matchup.

SSOG said:

Also, again, you keep talking about how Keyshawn's ceiling is a low WR2. First off, a WR3 floor with a WR2 ceiling isn't bad at all for a WR4 or WR5.

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I agree, not bad at all as your WR4 or WR5. It's not particularly good either, and certainly won't propel you past many opponents. My point it that I would rather choose to take someone that doesn't have the ceiling Keyshawn has. Even if that player comes with a lower floor.

SSOG said:

Second off, you keep completely ignoring my main point regarding Keyshawn's ceiling- Carolina has recently been to WRs what Denver has been to RBs. If you're the #1 WR in Carolina, historically, you're going to be an absolute stud. Delhomme has a history of boosting his WRs ypc. In fact, many of these same arguements were probably made against picking Muhsin Muhammad in 2004 (he's got a low ceiling, etc).

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I'm not ignoring it; the flaws in your argument have been well addressed by others in this thread and I don't see the need to rehash them.

SSOG said:

Edit: Actually, lets throw out the names of Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn as further examples of aging WRs with "limited ceilings" who wound up surprising everyone in recent years. Just because Keyshawn is aging and hasn't been a stud recently doesn't mean he has a limited ceiling. Production is as much a product of opportunity as it is of talent.

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Joey Galloway was hindered much of his carrier by injuries. But I understand your point. While a resurgence a la Galloway or Glenn is not impossible, I would rather place my bets elsewhere.

If you like 5 yard outs, Meshaun is your man. The fact that 'lina has no real tightend might allow Key to get td this week.

redman said:

Deuce said:

redman said:

One word. Drew Carter.

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One word? I've got Carter too, but I like Keyshaun to put up better numbers this week.

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DrewCarterIn a PPR league, Keyshawn's a better play, but he essentially fills their TE role and will catch passes from 0-15 yards out. Smith, and in his absence Carter, will get the big plays. I have a feeling that Hall will be on Keyshawn, so I like Carter's matchup.

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Nice save.

FWIW I think Keyshawn is going to have pretty good numbers this year.

projections: 66 rec for 891 yards and 6 TD.

66+ 89 + 36 = 191 points in PPR league, 125 points in non PPR league. I'd take that for a WR3, but not a WR2. If Keyshawn is your WR3 then I think his value is very good for your team. That value diminishes if he's a WR2.

I see Keysh as a similar receiver to Muhammad. Not sure what numbers he'll be putting up when Smith is in the lineup, but I'll be starting him as my WR3 this week if Smith is out (over DJax and Lee Evans).

The way I see it, Keyshawn is a great low-risk WR that can be a good compliment to riskier WR's who might have better upside, such as Jennings, ABryant, etc. We really have no idea what these guys are capable of in their respective systems - they have tremendous ceilings, but very low floors. If you are taking risks on other WR's, it might not be a bad idea to have Key on your team. If they flop, Key can be there to plug in as a WR2 if need be, rather than an underperforming flop.

I drafted him in :e: dynasty as my 5th WR in the 12th round (thanks largely to SSOG and this thread)- with ABryant and DBennett as WR3 and WR4 ahead of him. While Key has very little dynasty value, I was scared of ABryant and DBennett spitting the bit, leaving me without production this year. Now, @ WR, I have a couple of good "potiential" guys, AND steady Key to pick up the pieces if necessary. I think that this is a good model in where Key has value. Hopefully, I never have to play him, but if I do (in a flex or higher due to injury), it's likely he will be better than the typical WW fodder.

Six weeks down and Keyshawn ranks 8th, 9th, 12th, and 11th in my four different scoring systems. In terms of points per game, he's anywhere between 15th and 17th. Pretty solid return on investment thus far, and he's been deadly consistant- 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 7 catches in his 6 games.

Keep it up, Keyshawn!

Keyshawn is currently on pace for 85 rec, 1117 yards, 5 TD

Wheelhouse said:

Keyshawn is currently on pace for 85 rec, 1117 yards, 5 TD

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You forgot his rushing score. Even if you think it was a fluke play and don't want to consider it in the average (which I agree with and have no problem with), you have to add it back in at the end. That's 85/1117/6. Pretty fancy numbers, all said.

SSOG said:

Six weeks down and Keyshawn ranks 8th, 9th, 12th, and 11th in my four different scoring systems. In terms of points per game, he's anywhere between 15th and 17th. Pretty solid return on investment thus far, and he's been deadly consistant- 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 7 catches in his 6 games.Keep it up, Keyshawn!

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Thanks SSOG. Due to this thread I ended up with Keyshawn in numerous leagues. I'll buy you a beer when I win the FBG contest and the Interboard Challenge.Now about that Tater Bell take...

BassNBrew said:

SSOG said:

Six weeks down and Keyshawn ranks 8th, 9th, 12th, and 11th in my four different scoring systems. In terms of points per game, he's anywhere between 15th and 17th. Pretty solid return on investment thus far, and he's been deadly consistant- 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 7 catches in his 6 games.Keep it up, Keyshawn!

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Thanks SSOG. Due to this thread I ended up with Keyshawn in numerous leagues. I'll buy you a beer when I win the FBG contest and the Interboard Challenge.Now about that Tater Bell take...

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Like I've been saying, you can't pin that one on me. My official party line this offseason was that, even though I didn't think Tatum Bell was going to win the job, he was still underrated. I can provide the links to prove it. If you don't draft someone who I said was underrated, that's not my fault.

SSOG said:

BassNBrew said:

SSOG said:

Six weeks down and Keyshawn ranks 8th, 9th, 12th, and 11th in my four different scoring systems. In terms of points per game, he's anywhere between 15th and 17th. Pretty solid return on investment thus far, and he's been deadly consistant- 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 7 catches in his 6 games.Keep it up, Keyshawn!

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Thanks SSOG. Due to this thread I ended up with Keyshawn in numerous leagues. I'll buy you a beer when I win the FBG contest and the Interboard Challenge.Now about that Tater Bell take...

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Like I've been saying, you can't pin that one on me. My official party line this offseason was that, even though I didn't think Tatum Bell was going to win the job, he was still underrated. I can provide the links to prove it. If you don't draft someone who I said was underrated, that's not my fault.

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A part time back isn't underrated and isn't startable in most 12 teamers.

BassNBrew said:

SSOG said:

BassNBrew said:

SSOG said:

Six weeks down and Keyshawn ranks 8th, 9th, 12th, and 11th in my four different scoring systems. In terms of points per game, he's anywhere between 15th and 17th. Pretty solid return on investment thus far, and he's been deadly consistant- 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, and 7 catches in his 6 games.Keep it up, Keyshawn!

Click to expand...

Thanks SSOG. Due to this thread I ended up with Keyshawn in numerous leagues. I'll buy you a beer when I win the FBG contest and the Interboard Challenge.Now about that Tater Bell take...

Click to expand...

Like I've been saying, you can't pin that one on me. My official party line this offseason was that, even though I didn't think Tatum Bell was going to win the job, he was still underrated. I can provide the links to prove it. If you don't draft someone who I said was underrated, that's not my fault.

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A part time back isn't underrated and isn't startable in most 12 teamers.

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Why not? He was last year. He finished #21 in points last year and at the very worst was going to be in the exact same situation (so you could expect similar numbers). He also demonstrated in week 17 what he could do if he was ever given the starting job (which was always a possibility, but I figured it would have taken an injury).If a player finished #21 last year, and had little reason to expect regression at all this year (and some small reason to expect improvement), and he was being drafted as the #30 RB off the board, then I would say that's underrated.I actually did a whole lot of posts on the whole "Denver pie" and how it was so large that 30% of Denver's RB pie was actually worth more than 60% of some other teams' RB pies.