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Players FBG have ranked way low


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My list of too low:

Clinton Portis - RB## seems quite low, even with his tender shoulder and Duckett in DC. I think RB8 is more realistic.

Thomas Jones - RB## seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

Travis Henry - RB##? That seems way low for a guy who has put up decent numbers in the past, isn't that old and is a current starter.

Carson Palmer - QB# is just crazy. How many people would really rather have 8 other QBs ahead of him. I think QB5 is right.

Kurt Warner - His current QB## ranking implies that he shouldn't even be drafted in 10 team leagues with 16 player rosters. Huh? Only two slots above Brunnell and three above David Carr is just funny, even with the injury risk.

Randy McMichael - Behind Kellen Winslow? Kellen Winslow Sr., yes; but not Kellen Jr.

Donte' Stallworth - WR## seems a bit low, since he is the most talented receiver on Philly.

Nate Burleson - WR## implies that he only deserves to be the 5th receiver on a 10 man roster. Again, I think this is incredibly low.

Haven't given the way too high ones much thought, yet.

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My list of too low:Clinton Portis - RB## seems quite low, even with his tender shoulder and Duckett in DC. I think RB8 is more realistic.Thomas Jones - RB## seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.Travis Henry - RB##? That seems way low for a guy who has put up decent numbers in the past, isn't that old and is a current starter. Carson Palmer - QB# is just crazy. How many people would really rather have 8 other QBs ahead of him. I think QB5 is right.Kurt Warner - His current QB## ranking implies that he shouldn't even be drafted in 10 team leagues with 16 player rosters. Huh? Only two slots above Brunnell and three above David Carr is just funny, even with the injury risk.Randy McMichael - Behind Kellen Winslow? Kellen Winslow Sr., yes; but not Kellen Jr.Donte' Stallworth - WR## seems a bit low, since he is the most talented receiver on Philly.Nate Burleson - WR## implies that he only deserves to be the 5th receiver on a 10 man roster. Again, I think this is incredibly low.Haven't given the way too high ones much thought, yet.

don't think discussing subscriber content is a good idea, mind as well post the entire ranking.and your rankings are not current, if you think this is bad wait until you see where Travis Henry is on the latest.and finally, stallworth is not the most talented receiver in Philly.
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My list of too low:

Clinton Portis - RB13 seems quite low, even with his tender shoulder and Duckett in DC. I think RB8 is more realistic.

Duckett will vulture TDs. I also expect Portis will sit if the Redskins are ahead late. And that's not factoring in the possibility that his shoulder pops out again. Huge risk this year IMO. I actually think we are being generaous at RB13.

Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Travis Henry - RB44? That seems way low for a guy who has put up decent numbers in the past, isn't that old and is a current starter.

He will probably move up a tad in my next projections (later today), but I am not sold he is the starter in Tennessee UNLESS Brown gets moved. And I think LenDale will eventually start. Travis Henry has looked awful this preseason in the games so I don't knat to make of the announcement he is the starter.

Carson Palmer - QB9 is just crazy. How many people would really rather have 8 other QBs ahead of him. I think QB5 is right.

I am struggling with this ranking, because frankly after watching the hit last year I gave him about a 40% chance to play by mid-season. So the fact that he looks very sharp, etc goes against all that. He will get bumped up again today. QB5 sounds about right.

Kurt Warner - His current QB22 ranking implies that he shouldn't even be drafted in 10 team leagues with 16 player rosters. Huh? Only two slots above Brunnell and three above David Carr is just funny, even with the injury risk.

I expect him to miss at least two games. I also am geeting a great vibe from Leinart's play and believe there is a good chance if Warner goes down then Matt will hold onto this job. But all that said, Warner will like have high PPG in the games he starts and finishes. But that's the rub. What games will he finish?

Randy McMichael - Behind Kellen Winslow? Kellen Winslow Sr., yes; but not Kellen Jr.

Kellen Winslow came into the league as a great player. He has had a very rocky start, but the talent level is still there. I think he excels on this Browns team.

Donte' Stallworth - WR39 seems a bit low, since he is the most talented receiver on Philly.

He doesn't even know the playbook yet. This guy is also a classic under-achiever both in practice and in the games. I believe Reggie Brown will end up with the better numbers by season's end.

Nate Burleson - WR52 implies that he only deserves to be the 5th receiver on a 10 man roster. Again, I think this is incredibly low.

Bobby Engram continues to outplay Burleson. If DJax can go I think Engram will post better numbers than Burleson, even though the team runs many 3 WR sets. So WR52 for a team's 3rd betst WR seems about right.

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My list of too low:

Clinton Portis - RB13 seems quite low, even with his tender shoulder and Duckett in DC. I think RB8 is more realistic.

Duckett will vulture TDs. I also expect Portis will sit if the Redskins are ahead late. And that's not factoring in the possibility that his shoulder pops out again. Huge risk this year IMO. I actually think we are being generaous at RB13.

Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Travis Henry - RB44? That seems way low for a guy who has put up decent numbers in the past, isn't that old and is a current starter.

He will probably move up a tad in my next projections (later today), but I am not sold he is the starter in Tennessee UNLESS Brown gets moved. And I think LenDale will eventually start. Travis Henry has looked awful this preseason in the games so I don't knat to make of the announcement he is the starter.

Carson Palmer - QB9 is just crazy. How many people would really rather have 8 other QBs ahead of him. I think QB5 is right.

I am struggling with this ranking, because frankly after watching the hit last year I gave him about a 40% chance to play by mid-season. So the fact that he looks very sharp, etc goes against all that. He will get bumped up again today. QB5 sounds about right.

Kurt Warner - His current QB22 ranking implies that he shouldn't even be drafted in 10 team leagues with 16 player rosters. Huh? Only two slots above Brunnell and three above David Carr is just funny, even with the injury risk.

I expect him to miss at least two games. I also am geeting a great vibe from Leinart's play and believe there is a good chance if Warner goes down then Matt will hold onto this job. But all that said, Warner will like have high PPG in the games he starts and finishes. But that's the rub. What games will he finish?

Randy McMichael - Behind Kellen Winslow? Kellen Winslow Sr., yes; but not Kellen Jr.

Kellen Winslow came into the league as a great player. He has had a very rocky start, but the talent level is still there. I think he excels on this Browns team.

Donte' Stallworth - WR39 seems a bit low, since he is the most talented receiver on Philly.

He doesn't even know the playbook yet. This guy is also a classic under-achiever both in practice and in the games. I believe Reggie Brown will end up with the better numbers by season's end.

Nate Burleson - WR52 implies that he only deserves to be the 5th receiver on a 10 man roster. Again, I think this is incredibly low.

Bobby Engram continues to outplay Burleson. If DJax can go I think Engram will post better numbers than Burleson, even though the team runs many 3 WR sets. So WR52 for a team's 3rd betst WR seems about right.

David, thanks for the counterpoints. Sound arguments all around. I don't agree with all of them, but that's why they are called arguments.

And my apologies if this posting stepped over the line in terms of subscriber content. I have been a subscriber for three years but only joined the Discussion Forums yesterday. I guess I sort of assumed everybody on the boards was a subscriber.

Again, sorry if I violated some kind of posting guideline.

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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:

McNabb - No wrs

Leftwich - Injury prone

Tiki - Jacobs will steal TD's and carries, possibly recepts

K. Jones - Lions stink

Droughns - RBBC with Harrison looming?

Foster - Williams lurking

Chris Brown - benched

McGahee - Bills stink

Mason - Clayton emerging, Lewis healthy

Driver - Favre stinks

R. Brown - Stallworth new #1

Harrison - Wayne #1 now

J. Walker - Coming off injury

Heap - See Mason

SJax - Still hurt, who knows when he'll come back

Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la Gonzo last year

Steelers Defense - Upgrades in division opponets offenses kill thier value

Vinatieri - Hurt

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don't think discussing subscriber content is a good idea, mind as well post the entire ranking.and your rankings are not current, if you think this is bad wait until you see where Travis Henry is on the latest.and finally, stallworth is not the most talented receiver in Philly.

What do you mean by the "latest"? Reason I ask is because I'm trying to understand where I get the latest. I see Travis Henry still where the original poster had him. (By clicking on the link "Top 250 with ADP" from the footballguys home page)Is there a real time version of this list? What is the source of this list? Just trying to understand where this data comes from and how I get get the updated version of it.TIA.
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don't think discussing subscriber content is a good idea, mind as well post the entire ranking.and your rankings are not current, if you think this is bad wait until you see where Travis Henry is on the latest.and finally, stallworth is not the most talented receiver in Philly.

What do you mean by the "latest"? Reason I ask is because I'm trying to understand where I get the latest. I see Travis Henry still where the original poster had him. (By clicking on the link "Top 250 with ADP" from the footballguys home page)Is there a real time version of this list? What is the source of this list? Just trying to understand where this data comes from and how I get get the updated version of it.TIA.
I looked at the 8/28 update of Projections and he was listed lower than Arlen Harris, Maurice Hicks, and Labrandon Toefield.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:McNabb - No wrsLeftwich - Injury proneTiki - Jacobs will steal TD's and carries, possibly receptsK. Jones - Lions stinkDroughns - RBBC with Harrison looming?Foster - Williams lurkingChris Brown - benchedMcGahee - Bills stinkMason - Clayton emerging, Lewis healthyDriver - Favre stinksR. Brown - Stallworth new #1Harrison - Wayne #1 nowJ. Walker - Coming off injuryHeap - See MasonSJax - Still hurt, who knows when he'll come backGates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la Gonzo last yearSteelers Defense - Upgrades in division opponets offenses kill thier valueVinatieri - Hurt

I will only argue my top 2 objections to your post...Marvin Harrison- Even if Wayne outproduces him this season, that still leaves Harrison as a top 10 WR. How can this be "obscenely too high"?Steelers D- Until someone actually beats this defense, this is an absurd comment. They are the SB champs, as much as that pains me to say!I am in total agreement about Gates however. This smells of disaster to me. Rivers has to show something before Gates and LT would even be able to sniff their ADP.
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I have been thinking all along that there is great value in where Lee Evans is ranked. Go ahead and jump on the bash JP bandwagon, but if, as most of you stink, the Bills are that bad, they gotta throw to catch up.....

Lee Evans= 80 Rec. 1200 yards 10 TD's.

But then again, I'm just a homer..... :bag:

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Off the top of my head these guys are strong bets to outperform their ranking:

Ben Roethlisberger - Steady QB who could surprise

Alex Smith - Remember Eli Manning?

Brian Griese - only has value if Grossman falters, but that seems likely

Kevin Jones - Solid back who will benefit from the coaching change

DeShaun Foster - This offense scores points and Foster looks to have a lock on the starting gig

Corey Dillon/Laurence Maroney - Only worth drafting as a combo, IMO, but should net a top 15-20 back

Lee Evans - Great player with major opportunity to produce this year

Eddie Kennison - Still gets no respect

Matt Jones - IMO, he's clearly the guy to have in Jacksonville

Antonio Bryant - Top 20 if he stays healthy. Huge value pick this year.

Keenan McCardell - Unreal value in most leagues

Travis Taylor - Quite possibly the best WR in Minnesota

Chris Henry - Still just a slot guy, but he makes big plays and gets in the end zone

Heath Miller - Could pull a Todd Heap in year two

Ben Troupe - Value

Alex Smith - Could improve after solid rookie season

Robert Royal - Huge sleeper who appears to be a big part of the offense

There is a lot of value at WR this year due to people overlooking obvious breakout candidates like Evans, Bryant, and Jones while also underrating solid veterans like McCardell and Kennison. People talk about the RB depth this year, but I think it's a good year to wait on WRs. The TE depth is also excellent with guys like Miller, Watson, and Troupe often available relatively late in the going.

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Off the top of my head these guys are strong bets to outperform their ranking:Ben Roethlisberger - Steady QB who could surpriseAlex Smith - Remember Eli Manning?Brian Griese - only has value if Grossman falters, but that seems likelyKevin Jones - Solid back who will benefit from the coaching changeDeShaun Foster - This offense scores points and Foster looks to have a lock on the starting gigCorey Dillon/Laurence Maroney - Only worth drafting as a combo, IMO, but should net a top 15-20 backLee Evans - Great player with major opportunity to produce this yearEddie Kennison - Still gets no respectMatt Jones - IMO, he's clearly the guy to have in JacksonvilleAntonio Bryant - Top 20 if he stays healthy. Huge value pick this year.Keenan McCardell - Unreal value in most leaguesTravis Taylor - Quite possibly the best WR in MinnesotaChris Henry - Still just a slot guy, but he makes big plays and gets in the end zoneHeath Miller - Could pull a Todd Heap in year twoBen Troupe - ValueAlex Smith - Could improve after solid rookie seasonRobert Royal - Huge sleeper who appears to be a big part of the offenseThere is a lot of value at WR this year due to people overlooking obvious breakout candidates like Evans, Bryant, and Jones while also underrating solid veterans like McCardell and Kennison. People talk about the RB depth this year, but I think it's a good year to wait on WRs. The TE depth is also excellent with guys like Miller, Watson, and Troupe often available relatively late in the going.

Another Bryant believer! Cool! Welcome to the limb. I'm right there with you.MW
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Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la GonzoGates last year

Oben missed 8 games last year. How'd Gates wind up doing, again?
He did great....with Brees.

When Rivers was QB, he caught 2 balls for 11 yards.

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Nate Burleson - WR52 implies that he only deserves to be the 5th receiver on a 10 man roster. Again, I think this is incredibly low.

Bobby Engram continues to outplay Burleson. If DJax can go I think Engram will post better numbers than Burleson, even though the team runs many 3 WR sets. So WR52 for a team's 3rd betst WR seems about right.

I know it's speculative but shoudn't Engram be higher then. He is 10 spots below Burleson. I drafted Nate but he doesn't go after the ball and drops others. I thought they got rid of that problem last year, but now may have it back. They may regret signing him rather than Jurevicious.

I also have Engram as a FA in 3 leagues.

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Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la GonzoGates last year

Oben missed 8 games last year. How'd Gates wind up doing, again?
He did great....with Brees.

When Rivers was QB, he caught 2 balls for 11 yards.

Yeah, in half a game that didn't matter. THAT'S a big sample size to work with.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:Foster - Williams lurking

Williams is not "lurking." Williams is the backup. A 98 yard kickoff return that even you could have run back is not "lurking." :no:
He's lurking like the lurkiest of lurkers, I've seen it with my own eyes.Williams has the goods, I won't call it a full out RBBC, but he'll play a ton.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:Foster - Williams lurking

Williams is not "lurking." Williams is the backup. A 98 yard kickoff return that even you could have run back is not "lurking." :no:
He's lurking like the lurkiest of lurkers, I've seen it with my own eyes.Williams has the goods, I won't call it a full out RBBC, but he'll play a ton.
LOL, are you trying to trade for all these guys? I say that this is not a McAllister/Bush or even Dillon/Maroney situation. Williams is the clear backup unless Foster gets hurt.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:Foster - Williams lurking

Williams is not "lurking." Williams is the backup. A 98 yard kickoff return that even you could have run back is not "lurking." :no:
He's lurking like the lurkiest of lurkers, I've seen it with my own eyes.Williams has the goods, I won't call it a full out RBBC, but he'll play a ton.
LOL, are you trying to trade for all these guys? I say that this is not a McAllister/Bush or even Dillon/Maroney situation. Williams is the clear backup unless Foster gets hurt.
Shouldn't you be entering rosters on the web site right now?
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:Foster - Williams lurking

Williams is not "lurking." Williams is the backup. A 98 yard kickoff return that even you could have run back is not "lurking." :no:
He's lurking like the lurkiest of lurkers, I've seen it with my own eyes.Williams has the goods, I won't call it a full out RBBC, but he'll play a ton.
LOL, are you trying to trade for all these guys? I say that this is not a McAllister/Bush or even Dillon/Maroney situation. Williams is the clear backup unless Foster gets hurt.
Shouldn't you be entering rosters on the web site right now?
Done and Done. And I dropped all the players from your team that seemed overrated to me.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:Foster - Williams lurking

Williams is not "lurking." Williams is the backup. A 98 yard kickoff return that even you could have run back is not "lurking." :no:
He's lurking like the lurkiest of lurkers, I've seen it with my own eyes.Williams has the goods, I won't call it a full out RBBC, but he'll play a ton.
I agree Williams is lurktastic. I guess stealth mode is working on some though. :ph34r:
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Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Last year, the Bears rushed for 2099 yards as a team, 8th in the NFL. Of this, 1607 of those yards went to Benson and Thomas Jones, 391 went to Adrian Petersen, and the other 101 went to the rest of the team.

This year, you project those three to combine for 1749 yards. Benson and Jones have a fairly even split of this, and Peterson has a negligible number of yards. Add back those 101 yards, and you're at 1850, which would have been good for 14th in the NFL.

Are you predicting that the Bears are going to rush less by 12+% as a team? That doesn't seem right to me - the Bears have clearly established themselves as a running team. Do you think their defense is going to slip? You have them ranked as the #2 defense overall and basically in a tie for fewest yards allowed. I guess I don't understand this one.

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Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Last year, the Bears rushed for 2099 yards as a team, 8th in the NFL. Of this, 1607 of those yards went to Benson and Thomas Jones, 391 went to Adrian Petersen, and the other 101 went to the rest of the team.

This year, you project those three to combine for 1749 yards. Benson and Jones have a fairly even split of this, and Peterson has a negligible number of yards. Add back those 101 yards, and you're at 1850, which would have been good for 14th in the NFL.

Are you predicting that the Bears are going to rush less by 12+% as a team? That doesn't seem right to me - the Bears have clearly established themselves as a running team. Do you think their defense is going to slip? You have them ranked as the #2 defense overall and basically in a tie for fewest yards allowed. I guess I don't understand this one.

But you are looking at only the RUNNING GAME. CHI had attrocious passing stats with injuries and the dregs of society at QB. After Grossman went down Orton and Blake were a shade off of say Brady or Manning. With a healthier Grossman (not sure that means anything) and Griese, the Bears should be a lot more effective passing the ball and should not be Bottom 3 in every passing category. They may not be Top 10 or even Top 20, but they should not be Bottom 3.
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Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Last year, the Bears rushed for 2099 yards as a team, 8th in the NFL. Of this, 1607 of those yards went to Benson and Thomas Jones, 391 went to Adrian Petersen, and the other 101 went to the rest of the team.

This year, you project those three to combine for 1749 yards. Benson and Jones have a fairly even split of this, and Peterson has a negligible number of yards. Add back those 101 yards, and you're at 1850, which would have been good for 14th in the NFL.

Are you predicting that the Bears are going to rush less by 12+% as a team? That doesn't seem right to me - the Bears have clearly established themselves as a running team. Do you think their defense is going to slip? You have them ranked as the #2 defense overall and basically in a tie for fewest yards allowed. I guess I don't understand this one.

But you are looking at only the RUNNING GAME. CHI had attrocious passing stats with injuries and the dregs of society at QB. After Grossman went down Orton and Blake were a shade off of say Brady or Manning. With a healthier Grossman (not sure that means anything) and Griese, the Bears should be a lot more effective passing the ball and should not be Bottom 3 in every passing category. They may not be Top 10 or even Top 20, but they should not be Bottom 3.
I understand all that. So are you predicting that the increased passing game will cause the Bears to fall back to the NFL average in rush offense? I strongly disagree with that prediction, but at least I'd understand the reason.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:

McNabb - No wrs I think LJ Smith, R Brown, and D Stallworth make a very decent core

Leftwich - Injury prone

Tiki - Jacobs will steal TD's and carries, possibly recepts I think you are correct here

K. Jones - Lions stink I think you will see a much improved game here by Detroit

Droughns - RBBC with Harrison looming? Maybe next year we will see an RBBC

Foster - Williams lurking Only if Foster gets hurt, always a possibility

Chris Brown - benched

McGahee - Bills stink

Mason - Clayton emerging, Lewis healthy Mason was best when he was paired with McNair

Driver - Favre stinks Maybe, but they still throw the ball a tremendous amount and Driver is the clear #1 target

R. Brown - Stallworth new #1 I don't agree he is the new #1, but he does hurt Brown just a bit

Harrison - Wayne #1 now Even if Wayne was the #1, Harrison is the deep threat on a pass first team

J. Walker - Coming off injury I agree but not because of injury. Plummer rolls to Smith's side of the field.

Heap - See Mason Heap finally gets a decent QB

SJax - Still hurt, who knows when he'll come back

Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la Gonzo last year You don't make your #1 target block more than he has to

Steelers Defense - Upgrades in division opponets offenses kill thier value I think they get drafted too early, but they are still a CONSISTENT top tier D.

Vinatieri - Hurt Before the rumours that he has a broken bone, I would disagree. How can a good clutch kicker, not be better indoors after playing in NE? Even if he missed a week or 2. If he does have a broken bone, I guess this further adds evidence that Belichick and Pioli are geniuses Disclaimer, I am from NE.

See MY opinions above
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I thought Horn and A Johnson were both rated too low. Horn, especially without Stallworth, is primed for a big year. The Saints still have a poor defense and they'll be throwing the football all over the place.

Johnson finished the season strong, and even with Moulds lining up across from him, I don't see how he goes for less than 1100 yards unless injured.

Omly thing I can figure is that Dave sees injuries in his crystal ball.

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Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Last year, the Bears rushed for 2099 yards as a team, 8th in the NFL. Of this, 1607 of those yards went to Benson and Thomas Jones, 391 went to Adrian Petersen, and the other 101 went to the rest of the team.

This year, you project those three to combine for 1749 yards. Benson and Jones have a fairly even split of this, and Peterson has a negligible number of yards. Add back those 101 yards, and you're at 1850, which would have been good for 14th in the NFL.

Are you predicting that the Bears are going to rush less by 12+% as a team? That doesn't seem right to me - the Bears have clearly established themselves as a running team. Do you think their defense is going to slip? You have them ranked as the #2 defense overall and basically in a tie for fewest yards allowed. I guess I don't understand this one.

But you are looking at only the RUNNING GAME. CHI had attrocious passing stats with injuries and the dregs of society at QB. After Grossman went down Orton and Blake were a shade off of say Brady or Manning. With a healthier Grossman (not sure that means anything) and Griese, the Bears should be a lot more effective passing the ball and should not be Bottom 3 in every passing category. They may not be Top 10 or even Top 20, but they should not be Bottom 3.
I understand all that. So are you predicting that the increased passing game will cause the Bears to fall back to the NFL average in rush offense? I strongly disagree with that prediction, but at least I'd understand the reason.
I am not suggesting that the Bears fall back to the pack running the ball. But I do see them rushing LESS this year almost by default. A lot will depend on the defense, and it's hard to think that they will be better defensively than last year.

Chicago struggles to run 900 offensive plays last year, and that's most likely due to letting the clock run. I suppose it is possible that they could pass more frequently and retain the same number of rushing attempts when you factor in incompletions and game stoppages. But the 2005 version of the Bears had almost 60 more attempts than the season before.

Even with all the players they drafted on defense, I personally see the defense taking a step back this year. How that plays out on offense is anyone's guess. But they may not be able to rely on the defense to either score points or give them great field possession to win this year. We'll see . . .

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Off the top of my head these guys are strong bets to outperform their ranking:

Ben Roethlisberger - Steady QB who could surprise

Alex Smith - Remember Eli Manning?

Brian Griese - only has value if Grossman falters, but that seems likely

Kevin Jones - Solid back who will benefit from the coaching change

DeShaun Foster - This offense scores points and Foster looks to have a lock on the starting gig

Corey Dillon/Laurence Maroney - Only worth drafting as a combo, IMO, but should net a top 15-20 back

Lee Evans - Great player with major opportunity to produce this year

Eddie Kennison - Still gets no respect

Matt Jones - IMO, he's clearly the guy to have in Jacksonville

Antonio Bryant - Top 20 if he stays healthy. Huge value pick this year.

Keenan McCardell - Unreal value in most leagues

Travis Taylor - Quite possibly the best WR in Minnesota

Chris Henry - Still just a slot guy, but he makes big plays and gets in the end zone

Heath Miller - Could pull a Todd Heap in year two

Ben Troupe - Value

Alex Smith - Could improve after solid rookie season

Robert Royal - Huge sleeper who appears to be a big part of the offense

There is a lot of value at WR this year due to people overlooking obvious breakout candidates like Evans, Bryant, and Jones while also underrating solid veterans like McCardell and Kennison. People talk about the RB depth this year, but I think it's a good year to wait on WRs. The TE depth is also excellent with guys like Miller, Watson, and Troupe often available relatively late in the going.

Hi EBF,

Can you please expound upon the bolded part?

Thanks

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Reche Caldwell, is IMO, ranked too low. If Branch finds a trade, Caldwell becomes the #1, doesn't he? He performed fairly well as a #2 (#3 really) in SD, and seems to be the type of receiver Brady could work with.

Am I misjudging this? Low risk, high reward in my book.

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Reche Caldwell, is IMO, ranked too low. If Branch finds a trade, Caldwell becomes the #1, doesn't he? He performed fairly well as a #2 (#3 really) in SD, and seems to be the type of receiver Brady could work with. Am I misjudging this? Low risk, high reward in my book.

I believe Troy Brown will be the Wr with the most catches if Branch does not return to the lineup soon.
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The guys are all ranked obscenely too high:Foster - Williams lurking

Williams is not "lurking." Williams is the backup. A 98 yard kickoff return that even you could have run back is not "lurking." :no:
He's lurking like the lurkiest of lurkers, I've seen it with my own eyes.Williams has the goods, I won't call it a full out RBBC, but he'll play a ton.
LOL, are you trying to trade for all these guys? I say that this is not a McAllister/Bush or even Dillon/Maroney situation. Williams is the clear backup unless Foster gets hurt.
Shouldn't you be entering rosters on the web site right now?
Done and Done. And I dropped all the players from your team that seemed overrated to me.
:lmao::lmao::lmao:
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These aren't way low, but a bit low. People will think this is silly, but Peyton Manning. I know they have him ranked as the #1 QB, but 13th pick is too low. Without the Edge grinding it out and stealing TDs, look for Manning to throw more and score more. Look for 4500 yards and 40 TDs. Worthy of the 7-10th pick. Palmer maybe the only guy who will be within 50 points of Manning.

I also think Willie Parker is rated too low, eventhough they bumped him up lately. I see Willie being the 4th or 5th best RB. Pittsburg runs the ball and will continue to run the ball. Willie had 1200 yards last year and will be over 1400 this year, and will also have 12+ TDs without the Bus there. And will catch more passes. Worthy of the 4th or 5th pick.

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Given that only a QB has only had 40 or more TD 4 times in the history of the league, I find it almost impossible to project someone at that level.

I do agree that Manning's projections are low, but he's only had 4500 yards once. I might think 4300/35, but as a PROJECTION I think that that's high.

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Thomas Jones - RB28 seems ridiculous. I think he is right at the cusp of Top 20 and potentially a lot better than that, even with the specter of Cedric Benson swirling around.

IF he wins the starting job. IF he holds off Benson all year. Yes then he is worth more. The door was open last week and he floundered. He gets another chance this week. But if he struggles again, I think we have this about right between he and Benson.

Last year, the Bears rushed for 2099 yards as a team, 8th in the NFL. Of this, 1607 of those yards went to Benson and Thomas Jones, 391 went to Adrian Petersen, and the other 101 went to the rest of the team.

This year, you project those three to combine for 1749 yards. Benson and Jones have a fairly even split of this, and Peterson has a negligible number of yards. Add back those 101 yards, and you're at 1850, which would have been good for 14th in the NFL.

Are you predicting that the Bears are going to rush less by 12+% as a team? That doesn't seem right to me - the Bears have clearly established themselves as a running team. Do you think their defense is going to slip? You have them ranked as the #2 defense overall and basically in a tie for fewest yards allowed. I guess I don't understand this one.

But you are looking at only the RUNNING GAME. CHI had attrocious passing stats with injuries and the dregs of society at QB. After Grossman went down Orton and Blake were a shade off of say Brady or Manning. With a healthier Grossman (not sure that means anything) and Griese, the Bears should be a lot more effective passing the ball and should not be Bottom 3 in every passing category. They may not be Top 10 or even Top 20, but they should not be Bottom 3.
I understand all that. So are you predicting that the increased passing game will cause the Bears to fall back to the NFL average in rush offense? I strongly disagree with that prediction, but at least I'd understand the reason.
I am not suggesting that the Bears fall back to the pack running the ball. But I do see them rushing LESS this year almost by default. A lot will depend on the defense, and it's hard to think that they will be better defensively than last year.

Chicago struggles to run 900 offensive plays last year, and that's most likely due to letting the clock run. I suppose it is possible that they could pass more frequently and retain the same number of rushing attempts when you factor in incompletions and game stoppages. But the 2005 version of the Bears had almost 60 more attempts than the season before.

Even with all the players they drafted on defense, I personally see the defense taking a step back this year. How that plays out on offense is anyone's guess. But they may not be able to rely on the defense to either score points or give them great field possession to win this year. We'll see . . .

Not sure if my view is overy simplistic:

Chicaco was 31st in first downs/game & 3d down conversions. A big part of that was due to the inept passing game. An improvement in the passing game should produce more first downs, more total offensive plays, and allow the bears to run as much as (or close to) last year.

edit. error in stats.

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Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la GonzoGates last year

Oben missed 8 games last year. How'd Gates wind up doing, again?
He did great....with Brees.

When Rivers was QB, he caught 2 balls for 11 yards.

Ohhhhhh, I get it now.

Apparently the loss of Oben hurts Gates... but only with Phillip Rivers at QB. Drew Brees was such a fantastic QB that San Diego apparently didn't even feel the need to block for him, but now that Rivers is in town, the Chargers have decided that they better start impeding defensive players on their way into the backfield again, right?

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Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la GonzoGates last year

Oben missed 8 games last year. How'd Gates wind up doing, again?
He did great....with Brees.

When Rivers was QB, he caught 2 balls for 11 yards.

Ohhhhhh, I get it now.

Apparently the loss of Oben hurts Gates... but only with Phillip Rivers at QB. Drew Brees was such a fantastic QB that San Diego apparently didn't even feel the need to block for him, but now that Rivers is in town, the Chargers have decided that they better start impeding defensive players on their way into the backfield again, right?

:lmao::lmao:
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Reche Caldwell, is IMO, ranked too low. If Branch finds a trade, Caldwell becomes the #1, doesn't he? He performed fairly well as a #2 (#3 really) in SD, and seems to be the type of receiver Brady could work with. Am I misjudging this? Low risk, high reward in my book.

Caldwell might not even start if Branch doesnt come back. This is what happens when you cant catch and dont know the offense.
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My list of too low:

Kurt Warner - His current QB22 ranking implies that he shouldn't even be drafted in 10 team leagues with 16 player rosters. Huh? Only two slots above Brunnell and three above David Carr is just funny, even with the injury risk.

I expect him to miss at least two games. I also am geeting a great vibe from Leinart's play and believe there is a good chance if Warner goes down then Matt will hold onto this job. But all that said, Warner will like have high PPG in the games he starts and finishes. But that's the rub. What games will he finish?

I had to look twice at this David, for a minute there I thought you were talking about your #7 ranked QB Bulger. Another guy that has never played a 16 game season.

I think Warner stands a much better chance of staying healthy this year because of James addition. As long as Edge is in the backfield the LB's have to play a lot more honest defense. He picks up blitzes well and is a dump-off threat. I'm feeling bad that I missed out on Warner in my draft last week and hope to make up for it in tomorrow's draft.

Willie

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Given that only a QB has only had 40 or more TD 4 times in the history of the league, I find it almost impossible to project someone at that level.I do agree that Manning's projections are low, but he's only had 4500 yards once. I might think 4300/35, but as a PROJECTION I think that that's high.

Yes and no. Peyton has thrown for over 4000 yards in 6 of 8 seasons, never thrown for fewer than 25 TDs and did throw 49 TDs just two years ago. Peyton numbers were lower than phenomenal last year because he hardly played in the last 4 games and hardly had to throw in the second half of most games. The Colts defense will not perform as well this year and Edge is gone. Also both Colts backs are better screen options than the Edge and weaker on the goal line. The cards point towards 2004 type numbers from Manning, and that's not an out of the question projection. If Vegas gave me an over/under of 35 on Manning TD's, I would take the over.
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Guest trader jake

Reche Caldwell, is IMO, ranked too low. If Branch finds a trade, Caldwell becomes the #1, doesn't he? He performed fairly well as a #2 (#3 really) in SD, and seems to be the type of receiver Brady could work with. Am I misjudging this? Low risk, high reward in my book.

I believe Troy Brown will be the Wr with the most catches if Branch does not return to the lineup soon.
Really?I'm not disagreeing...I just have no read on the Pats WR. Anybody else have some input here?
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Given that only a QB has only had 40 or more TD 4 times in the history of the league, I find it almost impossible to project someone at that level.

I do agree that Manning's projections are low, but he's only had 4500 yards once. I might think 4300/35, but as a PROJECTION I think that that's high.

Yes and no. Peyton has thrown for over 4000 yards in 6 of 8 seasons, never thrown for fewer than 25 TDs and did throw 49 TDs just two years ago. Peyton numbers were lower than phenomenal last year because he hardly played in the last 4 games and hardly had to throw in the second half of most games. The Colts defense will not perform as well this year and Edge is gone. Also both Colts backs are better screen options than the Edge and weaker on the goal line. The cards point towards 2004 type numbers from Manning, and that's not an out of the question projection. If Vegas gave me an over/under of 35 on Manning TD's, I would take the over.
We are saying mostly the same thing and it's the level of his production that's in question. However, the statement I bolded is entirely inaccurate. In weeks 14 and 15 Manning had a total of 81 passing attempts--the highest 2 game stretch of the entire season. He did see spot duty in the last two weeks, but giving him 4 games off is not accurate.

I set the over/under for Manning's TD last year at 35 and people were all over me saying how on earth could I set the bar so low as it would have been easy money taking the over. I still say it's tough PROJECTING a QB at 35 TD passes, as so many things can happen that the probability is low for it to happen. Only 14 QB have had that many TD passes in a season.

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Reche Caldwell, is IMO, ranked too low. If Branch finds a trade, Caldwell becomes the #1, doesn't he? He performed fairly well as a #2 (#3 really) in SD, and seems to be the type of receiver Brady could work with. Am I misjudging this? Low risk, high reward in my book.

I believe Troy Brown will be the Wr with the most catches if Branch does not return to the lineup soon.
Really?I'm not disagreeing...I just have no read on the Pats WR. Anybody else have some input here?
Well, you'll never hear anything from the Pats about anything. I follow the Pats and I have been suggesting that Troy Brown will get a lot more playing time as he is literally THE ONLY receiver that has any game experience in the Patriots system. (Brown had 4 receptions for 64 yards in limited action the other night.) I'm personally not sold on Caldwell (although if he plays every game he should do ok) and the depth beyond that is invisible.The team is threatening to use 4 TE sets to pose matchup problems (which I admit sounds intruiging), and the common theme seems to have Watson taking a more prominent role in the offense. If Branch is a no go, I think Brown will put up better numbers than Caldwell, Watson puts up Top 5 TE numbers, Caldwell does ok (maybe a touch more than projected), and the team runs the ball a lot more than last season.
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Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la Gonzo last year

I kind of think that they will use one, or both, of the other TEs to stay in and block. Asking Gates to do that more than normal would not be a prudent offensive gameplan.
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Gates - Rivers is unproven, Oben out means he'll stay in and block a la GonzoGates last year

Oben missed 8 games last year. How'd Gates wind up doing, again?
He did great....with Brees.

When Rivers was QB, he caught 2 balls for 11 yards.

Yeah, in half a game that didn't matter. THAT'S a big sample size to work with.
Another example of H.K nonsense...the guy has no clue.
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