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Jets over/under 6 wins (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter thetman
- Start date
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I took them at under 6.5 and wouldn't consider changing my wager or even hedging once TEN blows them out in week #1.
djcolts
Footballguy
Looking at their schedule, their best case scenario is 8-8.
Below are the games I think they could realistically win (meaning where you can realistically go down their schedule, pick the Jets to win that particular game, and not get laughed out of the building):
Sep 10 @Tennessee 1:00pm
Sep 24 @Buffalo 1:00pm
Oct 22 Detroit 1:00pm
Oct 29 @Cleveland 4:15pm
Nov 26 Houston 1:00pm
Dec 3 @Green Bay 1:00pm
Dec 10 Buffalo 1:00pm
Dec 31 Oakland 1:00pm
Below are the games I think they could realistically win (meaning where you can realistically go down their schedule, pick the Jets to win that particular game, and not get laughed out of the building):
Sep 10 @Tennessee 1:00pm
Sep 24 @Buffalo 1:00pm
Oct 22 Detroit 1:00pm
Oct 29 @Cleveland 4:15pm
Nov 26 Houston 1:00pm
Dec 3 @Green Bay 1:00pm
Dec 10 Buffalo 1:00pm
Dec 31 Oakland 1:00pm
my man otis
Footballguy
under --> 5-11
split w/ buffalo
split w/ miami
lose both to NE
win 3 more out of:
-detroit at home
-hou at home
-ten on road
-clev on road
-gb on road
i doubt they win any of the other games (indy, jax, bears, minny, oak)
split w/ buffalo
split w/ miami
lose both to NE
win 3 more out of:
-detroit at home
-hou at home
-ten on road
-clev on road
-gb on road
i doubt they win any of the other games (indy, jax, bears, minny, oak)
bostonfred
Footballguy
You guys are seriously underestimating Mangina
djcolts
Footballguy
No, we're not. They don't have enough talent yet. They have a brittle QB with no arm strength, one of the 5 worst starting RBs in the league, and no developed WR depth behind Coles. And, putting a good 3-4 defense together from a previous 4-3 defense takes more than a season.
Reaper
Footballguy
As a Jet fan, If that means Adrian Peterson or Brady Quinn (IF needed) and we see an OL develop and much better play towards the end of the year compared with the start, then I'll gladly take it.But, 3 Wins seems low, they won 4 last year with a OL that was completely wiped out and No QB or RB. If nothing else, thay start off without those devastating injuries minus coaching change which is good in that I think Herm Edwards was a complete Moron but, maybe a step back in changing systems. I'll call it a wash since Herm threw in the towel seemingly after week 1.The defense is still decent and If the rookies on the OL can get it together they can get a few more wins...This Start Vs Tennesee with Collins is Real Interesting.I'd reluctantly take the OVER.... But, not by much, I've been saying about 6 wins this year.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
You could have said the same thing about the Dolphins in Saban's first season. Their starting running back was suspended, they drafted a rookie RB and had a scrub OL (as opposed to the Jets who drafted rookie OL but have scrub RBs). They had no developed WR depth behind Chambers. And they were putting a 3-4 defense together from a previous 4-3 defense. I agree that the Jets aren't very talented. And I'm not saying that Mangina's as good as Saban. I'm just saying that they're not the lock to be under six wins that people here seem to think. It's still a decent O/U bet in Vegas, because a million New York fans are buoying that number, but it's not a lock.
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Shrek
Having a great season
Outside chance at 7 if injuries aren't as big of an issue as they have been in the last few years.
TLEF316
Footballguy
im a huge fan, but i say 5-11. No playmakers on offense and a D adjusting to a new system without any great pass rushers. IMO, the jets will be tough to run the ball on, but will struggle against the pass. We'll get a top 4 or 5 draft pick and walk out of next year's draft with one of Adrian Peterson, Dwayne Jarret or Calvin Johnson.
mhrutkowski
Footballguy
Tough to run the ball on? They have no true NTs on the roster and Vilma is going to have to take on more lineman in the 3-4. I actually think the secondary will be decent with Mangini. Miller is gifted athletically, Dyson is an average #2, and Rhodes is looking like an impact safety.
I really think this is next to impossible seeing that the Jets won 4 games last year with 2nd string T's, G anc center, 3rd string QB and 3rd string RB. It is going to be very tough to not get 4 wins with their defense and a bolstered O-line.It's tough to watch them win games knowing that Peterson and Quinn will be out there who could be franchise players, but I think this team is going to atleast win 4 games.
Totally agree... this system does not use Vilma's strengths. Roberston is going to get gobbled up. Two appear to be mismatches for the system. Hopefully, since Vilma is gifted atheletically... he will learn how to play ILB well.
wannabee
Footballguy
I know you know your Jets. I agree that the QB and RB situations are improved. Is the defense improved enough for the Jets to improve? And, the division is not as strong as it was
wannabee
Footballguy
And, even though I do not think Herm was a great coach, every coaching change is not necessarily a good one.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
I don't see much improvement in any of the areas you mentioned. Instead of playing stiffs on the OL they'll be playing highly thought of rookies... but still rookies. Is their QB sitation much better this year? What's your over/under on the # of Penningtons starts behind the rookie OL(assuming you think Pennington is better than a backup NFL QB after the arm ailments)? Barlow is probably better than a one legged Martin.... but not by a lot. Don't really understand how they are much better on defense either.Patoons said:
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Looking at that I only see two probable wins; HOU at home(unless Davis can come back by then) and OAK after the players have given up on Shell. Of the other six I think they'll be hard pressed to win three.djcolts said:
I think Nick Mangold, playing center, is better than Pete Kendall playing center out of position. Pete Kendall at left guard is an upgrade over Jonathan Goodwin (who?), and Anthony Clement at RT is better than Steve Morley. D'Brickshaw Ferguson? Clearly better than Adrian Jones at LT. As I see it, this is at least a modest upgrade, and by the second half of the season, this O-line should be significantly better than last year's shredded line.At QB there are quesiton marks, but so long as Pennington is healthy, he's a hell of a lot better than Vinny and Brooks Bollinger.At RB, Barlow+Blaylock is defintely better than Cedric Houston, possibly much better.At WR, Brad Smith and Tim Dwight provide some speed and excitement. Maybe not a lot, but more than there was last year.And finally, at TE, Chris Baker is back from injury, which should help both the blocking and the receiving.As I see it, the offense has had incremental improvements, and although the D lost John Abraham, it gained Andre Dyson and got Eric Barton back from injury. Bryan Thomas has looked really good playing at WLB, and has put pressure on QBs in the preseason. This team is significantly improved from last year, and should set its goal as 8-8.
So you're telling me that Mangold at center, a highly touted rookie, is not better than having Kendall there who hadn't played center since high school?? I don't care if he's a rookie or not, he's a better guy to have in that position. D'Brick is better than having Scott Gragg, I do believe so. Having Kendall back at guard and not Jonathan Goodwin is better this season, yes, I believe so. I think the players they have in these spots now are much more talented and capable than a second string guard and tackle coupled with a center who hadn't played the position since high school. Clearly, Martin's injury wasn't really something to brush off. That knee was/is in bad shape. It's going to be Blaylock, IMO, and yes.. I believe he is better than any one legged RB. Even so, put this RB behind a seemingly better line, I think it helps out the offense and allows them to finally move the sticks and sustain a drive (unlike last season).Pennington is better than Bollinger, I don't see how you can deny that, whether you believe he is a backup QB or not. So yes, their QB situation is better than having a guy starting who is on the verge of being cut this before the start of this season. Even if Pennington doesn't stay healthy, Ramsey or even Clemens is probably better than Bollinger. Defense has Rolle at #2 CB instead of Barrett, who is absolutely atrocious. Barton is healthy. Von Oelhoffen was added. Another thing contributing to people's belief that the defense was awful was that the offense was just brutal last year, so the defense was on the field 75% of the game and just got outworked and worn down and as a result, they got abused. How many you thinking they win? Easily 4 IMO. I see 6.
hutchins929
Footballguy
Under... I'd say 4 wins, maybe five if they get lucky.
cantrell
Footballguy
Let's check out the schedule....
Sep 10 @Tennessee - L
Sep 17 New England - L
Sep 24 @Buffalo - L
Oct 1 Indianapolis - L
Oct 8 @Jacksonville - L
Oct 15 Miami - L
Oct 22 Detroit - L
Oct 29 @Cleveland - L
Week 9 BYE
Nov 12 @New England - L
Nov 19 Chicago - L
Nov 26 Houston - W
Dec 3 @Green Bay - W
Dec 10 Buffalo - W
Dec 17 @Minnesota - L
Dec 25 @Miami - L
Dec 31 Oakland - W
Conclusion: Hell no! They are a 4-12 team. Clemons is starting by the end of the season.
Sep 10 @Tennessee - L
Sep 17 New England - L
Sep 24 @Buffalo - L
Oct 1 Indianapolis - L
Oct 8 @Jacksonville - L
Oct 15 Miami - L
Oct 22 Detroit - L
Oct 29 @Cleveland - L
Week 9 BYE
Nov 12 @New England - L
Nov 19 Chicago - L
Nov 26 Houston - W
Dec 3 @Green Bay - W
Dec 10 Buffalo - W
Dec 17 @Minnesota - L
Dec 25 @Miami - L
Dec 31 Oakland - W
Conclusion: Hell no! They are a 4-12 team. Clemons is starting by the end of the season.
I agree with most. I think they will beat the Lions and could easily win 1 of the other 3 I noted. They may struggle with Houston, they are not that poor of a team. Usually a team also pulls off an upset with someone looking ahead. I'll say it til I'm blue in the face... 6 win season.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
You do realize that Bollinger played better than Pennington last year before Pennys last injury? And know that Pennington would have already been cut if the salary cap hit wouldn't have saved him? I do like Ramsey but it doesn't sound to me like they are going to let him hit the field. Clemens is likely to see some playing time late in the year since they'll have nothing to lose but a rookie QB behind that line with that running game to protect him? If Clemens starts more than four game then I think all hopes of the NYJ winning more than four games are lost.
mhrutkowski
Footballguy
Chad is damaged goods, but Bollinger is #3 material
Not sure I agree on Bollinger being better than Pennington. Pennington played three games and aside from the poor game against JAX, he did his job decently. Only reason Pennington would have been cut would have been because of investment vs. injury concern/ability to come back from injury- two totally different reasons on Pennington's and Bollinger's "cut scenarios". Pennington also restructured which was the reason the main reason he was kept. Edwards was completely hesitant on letting Bollinger throw all last season, that wasn't the same when Pennington was in those three games. Just totally different scenarios... that's a totally different story though. I disagree that Bollinger outplayed him, Pennington was the better QB from all the games I watched and I watched each and every brutal game last year.IMO, Clemens won't start until the season is over or Pennington gets hurt. Even if Pennington gets hurt and they are playing well, I don't see why they won't play Ramsey if the team is playing well.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
So you went from "Pennington is better than Bollinger, I don't see how you can deny that" to "Not sure I agree on Bollinger being better than Pennington"?
I don't blame you. I wouldn't be sure either.
I don't blame you. I wouldn't be sure either.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Interesting, as although it's too early, I'm pretty sure the loser gets 1.01.UNDER
Rovers
Footballguy
LMAO at some of these posts!
Kendall was TERRIBLE at center last year.... I guess everyone has fogotten all the fumbled snaps when he went to C. That Atlanta game on national TV? 2 or 3 in that game alone. He not only couln't call the line blocking plays, he didn't know who HE was supposed to block! Mangold is a HUGE improvement at center, period. The offense still lacks weapons, but this O line may be, and in MO is better than the starting O line was in week 1 last year. Fabini was washed up, Mawae was not what he once was, and Jones was awful at RT. As good as Martin was, after he injured his knee in week 3 (or was it 4?) he was a shadow of himself.... any RB on the roster is an upgrade.
McCariens also blew toads last year... and is now WR#4, behind Coles, Cotchery and Dwight in the slot. Pennington's arm is still weak, but as good as it was in 2002. The RB's they have can't pick up a blitz worth a red cent, but still.... the O is in better shape than it was last year.
This defense is being VERY under rated, and will improve as the season wears on. They won't be easy to score against. Agianst Washington, they used Bryan Thomas as the pass rusher, blitzing from his new OLB spot, and he caused havoc. Then, as promised by Mangini, they went into the Giants game with only a 3 man rush. Manning had tons of time to pass, but couldn't find any open recievers... he even admitted he was frustrated by that scheme, and said he should have tucked and run to force the Jets out of it.
Initially, I was expecting a 5 to 6 win season. Now, I think 6 wins is a given. 7 possible, 8 on the outside. They will crush the Titans.... trust me on that one... bet the farm on it.
Kendall was TERRIBLE at center last year.... I guess everyone has fogotten all the fumbled snaps when he went to C. That Atlanta game on national TV? 2 or 3 in that game alone. He not only couln't call the line blocking plays, he didn't know who HE was supposed to block! Mangold is a HUGE improvement at center, period. The offense still lacks weapons, but this O line may be, and in MO is better than the starting O line was in week 1 last year. Fabini was washed up, Mawae was not what he once was, and Jones was awful at RT. As good as Martin was, after he injured his knee in week 3 (or was it 4?) he was a shadow of himself.... any RB on the roster is an upgrade.
McCariens also blew toads last year... and is now WR#4, behind Coles, Cotchery and Dwight in the slot. Pennington's arm is still weak, but as good as it was in 2002. The RB's they have can't pick up a blitz worth a red cent, but still.... the O is in better shape than it was last year.
This defense is being VERY under rated, and will improve as the season wears on. They won't be easy to score against. Agianst Washington, they used Bryan Thomas as the pass rusher, blitzing from his new OLB spot, and he caused havoc. Then, as promised by Mangini, they went into the Giants game with only a 3 man rush. Manning had tons of time to pass, but couldn't find any open recievers... he even admitted he was frustrated by that scheme, and said he should have tucked and run to force the Jets out of it.
Initially, I was expecting a 5 to 6 win season. Now, I think 6 wins is a given. 7 possible, 8 on the outside. They will crush the Titans.... trust me on that one... bet the farm on it.
JetsJetsJets
Footballguy
As a Jet fan and season ticket holder, I see... 6-10
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
Taking the over here at 6 wins. And the worry about Vilma is just that, worry. 3-4 ILBs can do very well, and it should free up Vilma to make more plays. The key of course, is "if" the players work well in the system. But in general, I think Vilma should excel in the 3-4 and be more free to wreak havoc. The addition of Mosley certainly can't hurt.
Sep 10 @Tennessee - 0.5 wins
Sep 17 New England - 0.3 wins
Sep 24 @Buffalo - 0.5 wins
Oct 1 Indianapolis - 0.2 wins
Oct 8 @Jacksonville - 0.2 wins
Oct 15 Miami - 0.4 wins
Oct 22 Detroit - 0.6 wins
Oct 29 @Cleveland - 0.5 wins
Week 9 BYE
Nov 12 @New England - 0.2 wins
Nov 19 Chicago - 0.3 wins
Nov 26 Houston - 0.6 wins
Dec 3 @Green Bay - 0.5 wins
Dec 10 Buffalo - 0.6 wins
Dec 17 @Minnesota - 0.5 wins
Dec 25 @Miami - 0.3 wins
Dec 31 Oakland - 0.6 wins
I've got the Jets at 6.8 wins. Anything from 6-8 wins wouldn't be much of a surprise.
Sep 10 @Tennessee - 0.5 wins
Sep 17 New England - 0.3 wins
Sep 24 @Buffalo - 0.5 wins
Oct 1 Indianapolis - 0.2 wins
Oct 8 @Jacksonville - 0.2 wins
Oct 15 Miami - 0.4 wins
Oct 22 Detroit - 0.6 wins
Oct 29 @Cleveland - 0.5 wins
Week 9 BYE
Nov 12 @New England - 0.2 wins
Nov 19 Chicago - 0.3 wins
Nov 26 Houston - 0.6 wins
Dec 3 @Green Bay - 0.5 wins
Dec 10 Buffalo - 0.6 wins
Dec 17 @Minnesota - 0.5 wins
Dec 25 @Miami - 0.3 wins
Dec 31 Oakland - 0.6 wins
I've got the Jets at 6.8 wins. Anything from 6-8 wins wouldn't be much of a surprise.
Excellent rebuttal. He is not better than Pennington... period.
mhrutkowski
Footballguy
ILBs can't "wreak havoc" if they to take on big lineman every play. The Jets don't have a big NT to protect Vilma, and moving to a 3-4 means JV won't be able to use his athleticism as much. He's also a smallish ILB, his game is speed and anticipation, not strength and shedding blockers.Ask Ray Ray how he liked the 3-4
redman
Footballguy
Chase Stuart
Footballguy
That's silly. Lewis is a bad example. Ask James Farrior, Donnie Edwards and Tedy Bruschi how they liked the 3-4. They've been three of the best defensive players in the NFL the last half decade, an overwhelmingly disproportionate representation from 3-4 ILBs. In a properly run 3-4, the ILBs shouldn't be shedding blockers.
mhrutkowski
Footballguy
Farrior, Bruschi are completely different players than Vilma and 3-4 ILBs WILL be taking on more lineman than in a 4-3... less lineman to protect them
-OZ-
Footballguy
This is oversimplifying things, as it depends on the personnel and how the ends are used. Is the DE attacking the QB, or stuffing the middle? is he attacking from the outside in, or inside? A lot of 3-4 DEs are essentially quicker DTs, while many 4-3 DEs are sack masters. You're right to be concerned about the NT here, that's my only concern with Vilma.
Shrek
Having a great season
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