SSOG -- you prompted me to work on something which ended up taking quite awhile. But I won't hold that against you.
Here are the parameters:
I looked at all WRs/TEs that scored at least 300 FPs from 2003-2004, combined. PPR scoring, no rushing stats considered. All WRs/TEs must have played at least 24 games, and been on the same team in 2003, 2004 and 2005. I then wanted to see which WRs did really poorly against a divisional opponent in those two years, and see how they did in 2005.
The lowest a receiver scored against a division opponent was 48% of his average FP/G.
Hines Ward averaged 15.1 FP/G from 2003-2004, but only 7.3 FP/G against the
Cleveland Browns. In 2005, Ward scored 49.9 FPs in two games against the Browns.
Rod Smith averaged 13.3 FP/G from '03-'04; against the
Oakland Raiders, Smith averaged just 6.1 FP/G. Smith scored 30.1 FPs in two games in 2005 against the Raiders.
Eddie Kennison averaged 13.0 FP/G; against
San Diego, he averaged just 6.8 FP/G. He scored 28.4 FPs in two games against the Chargers in 2005.
Those are just the first three receivers I saw. The table is way too ugly to paste here, but I'll answer any questions you like about specific receivers.
Conclusions
Splits happen. In four games out of thirty-two, picked at random, there would be a quartet of really ugly games for a star. I'm sure some stud RB has stunk it up in weeks 5 and 11 of the last two years. There's no logic behind that, of course.
The Gonzalez/Bailey phenomenon does have some logic though. Gonzalez averaged 7.9 FP/G in four games against Denver the past two seasons, despite averaging 14.1 FP/G in all games. That's really ugly, although not as bad as the three examples I showed you. So what does it all mean?
I don't think we can conclude with much certainty that Bailey shuts down Gonzalez. And I definitely don't think we can say that moving forward (i.e., this Sunday), that Gonzalez should be downgraded. Bailey is a very good CB, but he's not invincable; in fact,
Jimmy Smith, Santana Moss and Terrell Owens toasted the Broncos for over 100 yards last year, with Deion Branch, Randy Moss and Plaxico Burress not too far behind. Gonzalez' poor performance against Denver in recent years is probably part luck, and part Bailey. But that's certainly not enough for me to downgrade Gonzalez much this weekend, in light of the three receivers I illustrated above.
(BTW, I think this is a fascinating topic. I hope you don't think I'm coming across as pulling crazy stats out to shoot you down. I ran the numbers, which took quite some time, and was going to post them either way. As I said, feel free to ping me for specific questions.)