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A word of warning to Mike/Tatum Bell Owners... (1 Viewer)

SSOG

SSOG

Moderator
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.

Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.

What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.

 
Last year against New England

Tatum Bell 13 carries 114 yards 1 TD

Michael Anderson 15 carries 57 yards 1 TD

I would start them both with confidence

 
Maybe this is the week that Jake and the passing game wakes up.

What's the word on Rod Smith for this game? Is he going to be good to go?

 
Soaring Eagle said:
Last year against New England Tatum Bell 13 carries 114 yards 1 TDMichael Anderson 15 carries 57 yards 1 TDI would start them both with confidence
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Monte Beisel and Chad Brown aren't manning the middle LB spots for NE this year like they did in that early season game last year. They weren't in that playoff game either, and the Broncos didn't exactly run down their throats. If the Broncos *do* run on the Pats Sunday night, last year's results won't be the indicator.
 
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In my opinion this is going to be a high scoring affair...Sunday night game on national tv...Both offenses will come out firing....

Tatum came close to breaking some long runs last week...

I think there is such a thing of over analyzing...

I believe this will be a high scoring game on both sides with lots of yardage as well...

Unless you have stud RBs (which there are few of this year) there is no way I would bench Tatum

 
Denver vs. the 3-4 last year (excluding QB rushing yards):

Week 1 @ Miami- 17/52/0 rushing

Week 2 vs. SanD- 24/96/1 rushing

Week 12 @ Dal- 18/129/1 (only 17/74/1 in regulation, the rest in overtime)

Week 14 vs. Bal- 29/99/0

Week 17 @ SanD- 30/116/3

Playoffs vs. Pitt- 14/67/1

Average game- 22/93/1, 4.23 ypc, 15.3 fantasy points

Denver vs. the 4-3 last season (exclusing QB rushing yards):

Average game- 33.4/168/1.5, 5.03 ypc, 25.8 fantasy points

The only game where Denver broke 100 yards rushing or 1 TD in regulation against a 3-4 defense was week 17 @ San Diego (when the Chargers had already been eliminated).

 
Kit Fisto said:
SSOG said:
Soaring Eagle said:
Last year against New England Tatum Bell 13 carries 114 yards 1 TDMichael Anderson 15 carries 57 yards 1 TDI would start them both with confidence
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Last year, New England played the 4-3.
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They play BOTH, depending on opponent.
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You're right, they play BOTH, depending on the opponent... and last year, like I said, they played the 4-3 against Denver. Actually, for the first half of the season, they spent most of the year in the 4-3, mostly because their LB corps was really thin before Bruschi came back from injury (which happened the week after the Denver game).For the record, New England wound up playing a lot more 3-4 against Denver in the playoffs. In that game, Denver's RBs combined for 25/88/2.
tribecalledjeff said:
SD, Arizona, and Cinci are the Bell's playoff opponents. Do any of them play a 3-4?
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San Diego does.
 
SSOG said:
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.
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You're just trying to motivate me. :rolleyes:
 
Tatum Bell said:
SSOG said:
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.
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You're just trying to motivate me. :rolleyes:
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Time for this alias to hang up the cleats. It was a good run.
 
SSOG said:
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.
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So what you're saying is, Denver's getting shut out this week. :kicksrock:
 
Soaring Eagle said:
Last year against New England Tatum Bell 13 carries 114 yards 1 TDMichael Anderson 15 carries 57 yards 1 TDI would start them both with confidence
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As was mentioned, I wouldn't put too much stock into how successfully the Broncos ran all over the Patriots last season. As you may or may not recall, the New England LB group was in shambles, as was the entire secondary (at least one of Bell's long runs last season featured a great deal of poor tackling in the NE secondary). Bruschi looked excellent the other day, and in the 3-4, the Patriots are much better than they were last season at this time with Bruschi, Seau, Vrabel and Colvin compared to McGuinest, Vrabel (on the inside), Beisel/Chad Brown, Colvin (even Colvin is playing a lot better than he was the first half of last season).The Patriots will probably shift around to some 4-3 as well, and the don't really get worse with Jarvis Green coming in to play end lining up to Warren, Wilfork and Seymour.Not to mention the problems Denver has had already running the ball.Good stuff SSOG.
 
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On the other hand, if you project 150 yards and 2 interceptions for Plummer, what can Denver do but feed the ball to the Bells?

 
SSOG said:
Denver vs. the 3-4 last year (excluding QB rushing yards):

Week 1 @ Miami- 17/52/0 rushing

Week 2 vs. SanD- 24/96/1 rushing

Week 12 @ Dal- 18/129/1 (only 17/74/1 in regulation, the rest in overtime)

Week 14 vs. Bal- 29/99/0

Week 17 @ SanD- 30/116/3

Playoffs vs. Pitt- 14/67/1

Average game- 22/93/1, 4.23 ypc, 15.3 fantasy points

Denver vs. the 4-3 last season (exclusing QB rushing yards):

Average game- 33.4/168/1.5, 5.03 ypc, 25.8 fantasy points

The only game where Denver broke 100 yards rushing or 1 TD in regulation against a 3-4 defense was week 17 @ San Diego (when the Chargers had already been eliminated).
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Baltimore's base package last year (and this year) was a 4-3Weaver - Kemo - Gregg - Suggs

Thomas- Lewis (Scott) - Polley

Or something like that. They definitely moved around a lot (Thomas essentialy played safety at times last year), but I'm pretty sure Rex Ryan moved them to more 4-3 than 3-4 last year once Nolan left.

 
HULLOBUDMAN said:
Boy, I hate the Broncos but SSOG sure seems to have a lot of good insight for a Donkey fan.Good work here.
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He sure does he was right on about Ron Dayne winning the job and Tatum Bell would never win the starting job and now this - They can't run against the 3-4 because they were just a little better than average against Pittsburg, San Diego, Baltimore, Dallas and Miami (3 Top 9 teams against the run last year 1, 3, & 9) and 2 better than average against the run defenses in Miami and Dallas)
 
qimqam said:
HULLOBUDMAN said:
Boy, I hate the Broncos but SSOG sure seems to have a lot of good insight for a Donkey fan.Good work here.
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He sure does he was right on about Ron Dayne winning the job and Tatum Bell would never win the starting job and now this - They can't run against the 3-4 because they were just a little better than average against Pittsburg, San Diego, Baltimore, Dallas and Miami (3 Top 9 teams against the run last year 1, 3, & 9) and 2 better than average against the run defenses in Miami and Dallas)
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SSOG posts solid stuff and always works to back it up. That being said, we can't conclude denver runs poorly against a 3-4 based on those examples, since they're some of the better run defenses in the leauge. Some deeper digging needs to be done, and I'm too lazy to do it.
 
Tatum Bell said:
SSOG said:
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.
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You're just trying to motivate me. :rolleyes:
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:D
 
Lets look at the reality of the situation. Your information is good and much appreciated, but in the real world KC, SD, Dallas and Oakland are off this week. That means all those JJ, LJ, LT, and Jordan owners are looking at a hole that needs filled. Let us also not forget those sly boots who took MBIII and Burner Turner as potential bye week fillers. With talent like that being off this week it means that owners have to start best available on the bench and, as such, the Bells will be rolling this week in most leagues.

I also understand that those who don't know the past are doomed to repeat it, but when someone tells me that a player always plays poorly against a team or defense my first thought is that they must be due to excel if for no other reason than to push the numbers back to the mean.

If you have better options this week then go with them, but if you're like most owners, you got to put the talent on the field and both Bells have talent and opportunity. I don't want either of them on the bench the day they go off.

 
bostonfred said:
Tatum Bell said:
SSOG said:
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.
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You're just trying to motivate me. :rolleyes:
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Time for this alias to hang up the cleats. It was a good run.
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AgreedIt wasn't funny, original, or clever the first time he posted. :goodposting:
 
malice said:
So what you're saying is, Denver's getting shut out this week. :kicksrock:
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Not at all. Denver actually has a very good winning percentage against 3-4 defenses (and is 4-1 against New England since they "dynasty" began, with the only loss being a last-second nailbiter in the intentional safety game with Danny Kanell at QB). They don't traditionally run well, but they still have historically managed to score.
JetsWillWin said:
As was mentioned, I wouldn't put too much stock into how successfully the Broncos ran all over the Patriots last season. As you may or may not recall, the New England LB group was in shambles, as was the entire secondary (at least one of Bell's long runs last season featured a great deal of poor tackling in the NE secondary). Bruschi looked excellent the other day, and in the 3-4, the Patriots are much better than they were last season at this time with Bruschi, Seau, Vrabel and Colvin compared to McGuinest, Vrabel (on the inside), Beisel/Chad Brown, Colvin (even Colvin is playing a lot better than he was the first half of last season).

The Patriots will probably shift around to some 4-3 as well, and the don't really get worse with Jarvis Green coming in to play end lining up to Warren, Wilfork and Seymour.

Not to mention the problems Denver has had already running the ball.

Good stuff SSOG.
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The problems Denver has had already running the ball? What problems would those be? Denver's currently on pace for a 488/2448/8 rushing season. Obviously the rushing TDs are pretty low (only one scored to date- who honestly thinks that THAT will keep up forever?), but the yardage figure would be the fourth best in Shanahan's storied tenure, and the ypc would be the best ever posted in Denver Broncos history. I don't know where this perception came from that the running game is struggling, because so far, it's been kicking butt and taking names.
Mungo Burrows said:
Baltimore's base package last year (and this year) was a 4-3

Weaver - Kemo - Gregg - Suggs

Thomas- Lewis (Scott) - Polley

Or something like that. They definitely moved around a lot (Thomas essentialy played safety at times last year), but I'm pretty sure Rex Ryan moved them to more 4-3 than 3-4 last year once Nolan left.
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Good info, thanks! :thumbup:
qimqam said:
and now this - They can't run against the 3-4 because they were just a little better than average against Pittsburg, San Diego, Baltimore, Dallas and Miami (3 Top 9 teams against the run last year 1, 3, & 9) and 2 better than average against the run defenses in Miami and Dallas)
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It's not just last season. I have 4-year historical data here backing up these claims. The only time IN THE PAST FOUR SEASONS that Denver has exceeded its average carries or yards was against the Oakland Raiders. And this wasn't just against good rushing defenses, either. For instance, in the 2005 preseason, Denver ran for 200 yards against every team it faced... except for the Houston Texans, who were brutal against the run and ran a 3-4 defense. Denver failed to break 100 yards rushing against them.
#@%&$!? said:
SSOG posts solid stuff and always works to back it up.

That being said, we can't conclude denver runs poorly against a 3-4 based on those examples, since they're some of the better run defenses in the leauge. Some deeper digging needs to be done, and I'm too lazy to do it.
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Like I said, this is a 4-year trend... but if you want a nice example of how the 3-4 tends to hinder Denver's running game... the San Diego Chargers provide a perfect little example. Between the 2003 and 2004 seasons, San Diego switched from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense. Here are the results from the two seasons.2003-

@ SD- 29/194/1

@ Den- 43/191/0

2004-

@ SD- 22/68/2

@ Den- 20/32/0

 
SSOG said:
Denver plays New England this week. While New England isn't married to it, they certainly play a lot of 3-4 defense (pretty much all of week 1 was spent in the 3-4, although they spent pretty much all of week 2 in the 4-3). Anyway, as most of you are by now aware, Denver struggles running the ball against the 3-4 defense.Normally, both Bells make fantastic RB2s on any given week, but I'd recommend scaling back your expectations for Denver's ground game this week. If you guys really want, I can dig up all of the numbers, but if I recall correctly, the only time in the past 3 seasons when Denver has even MATCHED its per-game averages in carries, yards, OR yards per carry against a 3-4 defense was in the two games against a positively brutal Oakland defense in 2004.What does that mean in fantasy terms? Well, Denver's 3-year per-game averages in carries are 33.9, 33.4, and 33.9. Denver's 3-year averages in yards are 158.7, 145.8, and 164.3, and Denver's 3-year averages in yards per carry are 4.7, 4.4, and 4.8. This means, when predicting Denver's rushing game, historical data suggests that you should project 33 or fewer carries, 4.5 or fewer yards per carry, and 150 or fewer total rushing yards.
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I hear you man, but unfortunately with Larry Johnson on his bye I don't have much choice other than plugging one of the Bells in my lineupGood post
 
SSOG never said that Denver "can't run" against the 3-4. He said they don't run as well against the 3-4 as they do against the 4-3. He then posted the #'s. The 4-3 run averages are still pretty good for most teams...just not the Tecmo Bowl #'s the Denver running game normally puts up. The problem lies in the fact that instead of splitting Tecmo #'s between two backs, now you are splitting "normal" run #'s between two backs. So while the Bell's were decent #2's normally...now they are more like decent #3's.

 
HULLOBUDMAN said:
Boy, I hate the Broncos but SSOG sure seems to have a lot of good insight for a Donkey fan.Good work here.
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True dat. If I had acted on his advice to sit Gonzo last week (and I meant to, was just on vacation and forgot and wasn't around a comp all weekend :cry: ) I would have won every game. I ended up losing by 5 points, and my backup TE got me 11. In other words, he speaks, I listen.
 
Ramblin Wreck said:
SSOG said:
Soaring Eagle said:
Last year against New England Tatum Bell 13 carries 114 yards 1 TDMichael Anderson 15 carries 57 yards 1 TDI would start them both with confidence
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Last year, New England played the 4-3.
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No they don't. They play a flex 3-4.
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Not for the entire season, no, but against Denver during the regular season, New England played a 4-3. They gave some 3-4 looks, but they definitely spent more time in the 4-3 than the 3-4, mostly because at the time Bruschi was still gone and their inside linebackers were TERRIBLE (didn't Vrabel wind up getting moved inside afterwards just to get Monty Beisel off the field)?
 
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.

SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.

 
SaintArnold said:
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.
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To be honest, as much as I hate to admit it, I'd definitely go with Maroney/Dillon. Or, if you're feeling brave, you can try to mix-and-match (say, start Maroney and Tatum, or Dillon and Tatum). That approach would have far more of a boom-or-bust result (i.e. you're more likely to get 200 yards and 2 scores, but you're also more likely to get 50 yards and no scores), so it's the type of move I'd try if I felt like I was facing a superior team. If I felt like I had the stronger team, I'd definitely go Dillon/Maroney. Denver hasn't given up a TD, but their rushing defense has definitely been allowing yards, and New England's going to be running it quite a bit.
 
SSOG said:
SaintArnold said:
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.
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To be honest, as much as I hate to admit it, I'd definitely go with Maroney/Dillon. Or, if you're feeling brave, you can try to mix-and-match (say, start Maroney and Tatum, or Dillon and Tatum). That approach would have far more of a boom-or-bust result (i.e. you're more likely to get 200 yards and 2 scores, but you're also more likely to get 50 yards and no scores), so it's the type of move I'd try if I felt like I was facing a superior team. If I felt like I had the stronger team, I'd definitely go Dillon/Maroney. Denver hasn't given up a TD, but their rushing defense has definitely been allowing yards, and New England's going to be running it quite a bit.
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SSOG. Just wondering why you reccomend tatum over mike. Tatums weakness is not being able to run, or push the pile if there's no seam. If the NE 3-4 is tough for then den o line as you state, then souldn't mike's grinding style be more productive?
 
#@%&$!? said:
SSOG said:
SaintArnold said:
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.
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To be honest, as much as I hate to admit it, I'd definitely go with Maroney/Dillon. Or, if you're feeling brave, you can try to mix-and-match (say, start Maroney and Tatum, or Dillon and Tatum). That approach would have far more of a boom-or-bust result (i.e. you're more likely to get 200 yards and 2 scores, but you're also more likely to get 50 yards and no scores), so it's the type of move I'd try if I felt like I was facing a superior team. If I felt like I had the stronger team, I'd definitely go Dillon/Maroney. Denver hasn't given up a TD, but their rushing defense has definitely been allowing yards, and New England's going to be running it quite a bit.
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SSOG. Just wondering why you reccomend tatum over mike. Tatums weakness is not being able to run, or push the pile if there's no seam. If the NE 3-4 is tough for then den o line as you state, then souldn't mike's grinding style be more productive?
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Not SSOG but I've been very impressed by T.Bell's strength running with the ball this season. He looks more assertive than in the past and is showing more power on his runs. On topic, I respect SSOG's input (he nailed the Gonzo call last week without question) but I'm going with T.Bell as my RB3 until he gives me a good reason to bench him. I think the Broncos are going to try and run the ball a lot to take the pressure off Plummer and T.Bell has been (in my opinion) the best RB on the team and last week showed he's the guy Shanahan wants on the field with the game on the line. He's also come very close in each game to breaking a huge run (I realize that doesn't count for squat but I do believe it's something worth noting). Summing all that up, I think he'll get 15-17 carries and if he gets that many he'll generate no worse than solid RB3 production again this week.
 
SSOG said:
SaintArnold said:
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.
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To be honest, as much as I hate to admit it, I'd definitely go with Maroney/Dillon. Or, if you're feeling brave, you can try to mix-and-match (say, start Maroney and Tatum, or Dillon and Tatum). That approach would have far more of a boom-or-bust result (i.e. you're more likely to get 200 yards and 2 scores, but you're also more likely to get 50 yards and no scores), so it's the type of move I'd try if I felt like I was facing a superior team. If I felt like I had the stronger team, I'd definitely go Dillon/Maroney. Denver hasn't given up a TD, but their rushing defense has definitely been allowing yards, and New England's going to be running it quite a bit.
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Specifically I'm trying to decide whether to start Tatum or Maroney during LT's bye week. I've been leaning Tatum, but only because I'll be rooting for the Broncos (actually not a terrible tie-breaker for difficult WDIS questions).The other part of my decision is that while both are in 50/50 RBBC, Tatum gets slightly more than 50%, and Maroney slightly less.Man, the whole Broncos offense is depressing right now. Here's hoping they pull it together this week. :banned:
 
packersfan said:
#@%&$!? said:
SSOG said:
SaintArnold said:
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.
Click to expand...
To be honest, as much as I hate to admit it, I'd definitely go with Maroney/Dillon. Or, if you're feeling brave, you can try to mix-and-match (say, start Maroney and Tatum, or Dillon and Tatum). That approach would have far more of a boom-or-bust result (i.e. you're more likely to get 200 yards and 2 scores, but you're also more likely to get 50 yards and no scores), so it's the type of move I'd try if I felt like I was facing a superior team. If I felt like I had the stronger team, I'd definitely go Dillon/Maroney. Denver hasn't given up a TD, but their rushing defense has definitely been allowing yards, and New England's going to be running it quite a bit.
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SSOG. Just wondering why you reccomend tatum over mike. Tatums weakness is not being able to run, or push the pile if there's no seam. If the NE 3-4 is tough for then den o line as you state, then souldn't mike's grinding style be more productive?
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Not SSOG but I've been very impressed by T.Bell's strength running with the ball this season. He looks more assertive than in the past and is showing more power on his runs. On topic, I respect SSOG's input (he nailed the Gonzo call last week without question) but I'm going with T.Bell as my RB3 until he gives me a good reason to bench him. I think the Broncos are going to try and run the ball a lot to take the pressure off Plummer and T.Bell has been (in my opinion) the best RB on the team and last week showed he's the guy Shanahan wants on the field with the game on the line. He's also come very close in each game to breaking a huge run (I realize that doesn't count for squat but I do believe it's something worth noting). Summing all that up, I think he'll get 15-17 carries and if he gets that many he'll generate no worse than solid RB3 production again this week.
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If the decision you're making is T. Bell vs. M. Bell, I completely agree with you. He may have slightly more opportunities than M. Bell (even # series = 50/50, but if it's an odd # of series, Tatum gets one more). So if you think they're equal that's a slight edge for Tatum. And to me, Tatum looks better right now, which should give a better return on those opportunities.
 
#@%&$!? said:
SSOG said:
SaintArnold said:
This is blatantly a WDIS question, but apropos to this thread.SSOG, who do you like better: Tatum/Mike Bell vs. NE, or Maroney/Dillon vs. Den? Both could be tough matchups.
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To be honest, as much as I hate to admit it, I'd definitely go with Maroney/Dillon. Or, if you're feeling brave, you can try to mix-and-match (say, start Maroney and Tatum, or Dillon and Tatum). That approach would have far more of a boom-or-bust result (i.e. you're more likely to get 200 yards and 2 scores, but you're also more likely to get 50 yards and no scores), so it's the type of move I'd try if I felt like I was facing a superior team. If I felt like I had the stronger team, I'd definitely go Dillon/Maroney. Denver hasn't given up a TD, but their rushing defense has definitely been allowing yards, and New England's going to be running it quite a bit.
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SSOG. Just wondering why you reccomend tatum over mike. Tatums weakness is not being able to run, or push the pile if there's no seam. If the NE 3-4 is tough for then den o line as you state, then souldn't mike's grinding style be more productive?
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Three reasons.First, while the carries are going to be pretty evenly split and will depend a lot on who is on the field when the offense starts putting together some good drives, Tatum will at worst have as many drives as Mike, and will at best have more (since he gets first crack- if there are an odd number of offensive drives, Tatum is the beneficiary). All other things being equal, go with the guy who's likely to get more chances.Second, while Denver struggles running against the 3-4, a single long run can make that all go away. An example is last year against Dallas. Denver rushed for 76 yards against them all game... and then right away in overtime they get a 55 yard gain and suddenly it looks like they had a good rushing day. As a result, the best chance either RB has to have a solid fantasy day is breaking a long run, and Tatum is far more likely to break one than Mike.Third, Denver actually broke the Tatum/Mike/Tatum/Mike rhythm last week. While it's hard to say what's going on in Shanahan's head, Tatum did get the final drive of the game and the first (and only) drive of overtime. It might have been that Shanny counted Plummer's kneel-down as a Mike Bell drive (although he didn't at the end of the first half), or it might have been that he forgot, or it might have been that in overtime he decided to start the rotation over at the beginning, or it might have been that Shanny's starting to develop a preference for Tatum. I don't think it's a huge deal, because I haven't heard so much as a peep about it from Shanny or the media this week (I was shocked that they didn't pick up on it and ask him about it after the game last week), but it is, at the very least, worth noting as a point in Tatum's favor that there's a possibility that Shanahan's beginning to favor him.
 
I think Denver is leaning toward Tatum Bell as their lead back with Mike Bell spelling him.

2 series Tater, I series Mike is a good mix.

 
moleculo said:
Da Guru said:
I think Denver is leaning toward Tatum Bell as their lead back with Mike Bell spelling him.2 series Tater, I series Mike is a good mix.
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is this a hunch, or are you basing this on any fact?
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Just watching the games it appears that Tater Bell is the much better RB, but Shanny does not want to wear him down. So Mike Bell will continue to get some work as well.
 
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