Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Aiken will be 29 next month, he's been in the league 7 years mostly as a special teams player so he's not "the future" in New England.On that list the best chance for future stardom is Jordy Nelson.
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Dynasty Rankings (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
- Start date
belljr
Footballguy
CBS has all the history as well. How else could I pull this mega move off12/20/01 Chang Feis Army Bryson, Shawn Signed12/20/01 Chang Feis Army Watters, Ricky ReleasedFear & Loathing said:Definitely agree on myfantasyleague.com. My favorite league manager for Dynasty as well as re-draft. I love the history they preserve in Dynasty.Re: Draft picks. I don't know that you consciously made a distinction here, but your post brings up a very important dichotomy. You were taking over an abandoned team; that's why draft picks were so important to you. It's almost a mandated strategy for rebuilding a deserted roster. On the flip side, though, say you have a balanced, young nucleus and you're a contender on a yearly basis. I'd rather use the draft picks as trade chips to acquire a good young player who can help me now as well as the future.Just Win Baby said:SSOG said:I agree that acquiring picks is a good strategy. I'm partners with Couch Potato in MOX VI, and he/we took over an abandoned team that was in poor shape back in 2007. We traded a lot the first two years and acquired a lot of picks, along with various players, the best of whom was Andre Johnson.In 2008, the extra picks were a mixed bag, as we ended up drafting Torain (1.9), Ryan (1.13), Kelly (2.3), and Hightower (2.6), and trading away some of the other extra picks. If Torain didn't get hurt last year, this might look a lot better. We made the playoffs, though, after missing in 2007.In 2009, it seems to have worked out quite well so far, though it's early: Moreno (1.1), Harvin (1.8), Stafford (1.9), and Scott (2.2), and again we had other picks that we traded away.In MOX, there are 14 teams and up to 4 RBs can start each week, and it is not PPR. We were having a really tough time improving the poor RB situation we inherited because we were not picking early enough in the draft, so we made the difficult decision last offseason to trade Andre Johnson, which is why we got the 1.1 and Moreno. We also traded Ryan in a package for Rodgers and, feeling we were turning the corner, some future picks for Jacobs.We'll see how it turns out, but we are arguably the top team in the league now (#2 in points, #1 in all play record). And one of the keys to the turnaround was aggressively stockpiling draft picks, which gave us a lot of options for turning over the roster.By the way, let me just throw in an unrelated plug for myfantasyleague.com. I'm not sure how many other sites preserve history of message board posts, transactions, etc. for past years, but it's really great to be able to look back at that stuff from a couple years ago.
Seriously though, I still struggle with value now and future. I don't value my draft picks as much but I think it's starting to finally catch up with me.I try to get players that other teams have "groomed" but I end up over paying a bit.I'm trying to back off that strategy next year...
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Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub
Footballguy
Did just that this morning. Dealt Charles & Maclin for Boldin & a 4th rounder. Usually don't deal WR's with such an age disparity, I'm just of the opinion Boldin's got a lot left in the tank and will be on the Hines Ward career path. I could be wrong but I don't see a whole lot to like about Charles. Limitations between the tackles, his coach's use of him [probably as a result of the aforementioned], and the team's situation as a whole.
Bess also seems to have decent hands and a little skill. I wouldn't bet my life on it but I bet he could become a solid contributor.
MountainMan0726
Footballguy
Has anyone done any homework on Dynasty DST? Are defenses predictable over 2-3 year stretches, or is it a crapshoot year to year? Should we value the players on a D, or the D coordinators?
What would be the Top 3-5 DST to own in a Dynasty, or should DST's be traded for individual talent in a "start from scratch with the hot D" each yet strategy?
What would be the Top 3-5 DST to own in a Dynasty, or should DST's be traded for individual talent in a "start from scratch with the hot D" each yet strategy?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
The majority of the DST are a crapshoot from year-to-year.If I had to do a Top-5 right now, I'd go:1. Steelers2. Vikings3. Eagles4. Giants5. Cowboys
one time
Footballguy
F & L, because of this thread, I took Percy Harvin in both my Dynasty Drafts, however, there is something in my gut that I just uneasy about. It may be the fact that since Moss and before Brett there hasn't been a capable WR in Minny. In addition to this, Sidney Rice is breaking out of his shell. The Vikings are throwing more this year than in previous years. Etc Etc Etc...
Because of this I traded him and Garrard in one league at the start of the year for James Jones, Heap, and what were expected to be good 1st round picks in 2010 and 2011. Then the 2010 I traded with westbrook before his concussion for Moreno( I had VERY weak, VERY old RBs before a few trades this year that I designed with your blogs help).
Anyways, I was offered Slaton for him in the other league that I still have him in and I felt like I had to turn it down even though Im higher of Slaton and lower on Harvin than most people and needed a RB. My same gut reaction says that slaton is worth taking a chance on for Harvin w/ my WR depth( I Have Jennings, MSW, Steve Smith(Car), San Moss, Harvin, Eddie Royal, Jacoby Jones vs Lynch/Portis/M Bush/Sproles/Moats)
Can you talk me off the ledge of trading harvin? What makes you think he is going to be a TOP TOP WR in this league being on the Vikings w/ ADP and Favre/Tavaris Jackson?
Because of this I traded him and Garrard in one league at the start of the year for James Jones, Heap, and what were expected to be good 1st round picks in 2010 and 2011. Then the 2010 I traded with westbrook before his concussion for Moreno( I had VERY weak, VERY old RBs before a few trades this year that I designed with your blogs help).
Anyways, I was offered Slaton for him in the other league that I still have him in and I felt like I had to turn it down even though Im higher of Slaton and lower on Harvin than most people and needed a RB. My same gut reaction says that slaton is worth taking a chance on for Harvin w/ my WR depth( I Have Jennings, MSW, Steve Smith(Car), San Moss, Harvin, Eddie Royal, Jacoby Jones vs Lynch/Portis/M Bush/Sproles/Moats)
Can you talk me off the ledge of trading harvin? What makes you think he is going to be a TOP TOP WR in this league being on the Vikings w/ ADP and Favre/Tavaris Jackson?
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THE UNDERCOVER BROTHA
Footballguy
This one gonna be good. And you know F&L doesnt like Snacks.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I think you should trade him, especially if you like Slaton better than him.
Kitrick Taylor
Footballguy
First of all, my head hurts from trying to follow this post. Nobody really cares about the background you laid out here. How about just asking something like this.My team is short on young RBs, and I have a lot of very good WRs. Should I trade Harvin for Slaton?My answer would be, have you watched either one of these guys play this year? Harvin has displayed scary game breaking skills. Slaton is currently backing up Ryan Moats because he's got a fumbling problem on top of a 3.1 average.
one time
Footballguy
Last year Slaton was carrying at a 4.8 ypc with 2 fumbles lost as well as catching 50 balls. I saw Slaton last year and was very VERY impressed but I haven't seen him this year. When moats got the start, he didn't rush any better than Slaton and lost a fumble on the 1 yard line and had some trouble getting into the end zone himself.Harvin has shown some flash on returns, but that hasnt translated to being a good FF WR in that he is only WR #36 in my league in PPG.My question is what makes people think Slaton cant get back to where he was last year with his 4.8 YPC and what makes people think Harvin will eventually take that next step (He is a rookie but when he gains more experience, Favre will leave and they will rely on a much inferior QB and have to run more with the best young RB in the NFL)
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SSOG
Moderator
Just a quick stab at it...Anthony GonzalezJames JonesJeremy MaclinJacoby JonesKellen WinslowMalcolm FloydKenny BrittGreg OlsenAustin CollieRobert MeachemI could easily be convinced to shuffle pretty much anyone. They're all well down in the rankings, which means there's not that much separating them. I definitely think that Gonzalez and James Jones are the class of the set, though.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
SSOG
Moderator
Fleaflicker also preserves all history, from what everyone's roster looked like in any given week (if I want to see what my roster looked like in week 5 of 2007, for instance), to final points, standings, and all transactions.Just Win Baby said:By the way, let me just throw in an unrelated plug for myfantasyleague.com. I'm not sure how many other sites preserve history of message board posts, transactions, etc. for past years, but it's really great to be able to look back at that stuff from a couple years ago.
D/STs are a massive, massive, massive crapshoot. Coming into this season, 28 defenses were rostered in my dynasty league. The 4 defenses that everyone decided were so terrible they weren't even worth rostering? The St. Louis Rams (currently ranked 32nd), the Cleveland Browns (currently ranked 27th), the Denver Broncos (currently ranked 4th), and the New Orleans Saints (currently ranked 2nd). The Bengals (currently ranked 6th) and Cardinals (currently ranked 12th and with the juiciest playoff matchups ever) also spent some time on the street at some point during this season. One guy traded a 2nd rounder and Jermichael Finley for the Green Bay defense because he liked their matchup in week 7, and I still haven't stopped ridiculing him for it. Two days earlier, I had picked up the Cards, who are now ranked 2 slots higher than the Pack, right off the street. I told him I'd give him a steal on the Cardinals and sell them to him for the low low price of a rookie 2nd rounder, no quality prospect needed. As junky as 2nd rounders are, they're still worth more than all but maybe 3 fantasy defenses. Even if every defense in the league is rostered, if you've got roster spots to burn, you're probably better off trading a handful of pocket lint for 6 terrible defenses and then waiting to see which one becomes the next New Orleans Saints or Denver Broncos.As far as evaluating defenses for Dynasty, since it's such a crapshoot, I generally look for playmakers, whether they're making plays or not. Sometimes, the only difference between a 2008 Denver Broncos and a 2009 Denver Broncos is an Elvis Dumervil, or the only difference between a 2008 New Orleans and a 2009 New Orleans is a Darren Sharper. Very few defenses are consistently dominant because of any sort of schematic advantage (Pittsburgh, Philly, New England, the Monte Kiffen Bucs), most of the time it's just the best fantasy defenses are the defenses with the studs who are playing out of their mind. As a result, instead of paying full price for the known quantity defenses (the Pennsylvania pair, the Vikings), I prefer to just speculate on a lot of cheap defenses with a young stud who might not be playing like it at the moment. Some mediocre defenses in my scoring system with some great young studs that I'd be looking to buy into right now include: Dallas Cowboys (Def#15, Demarcus Ware), Baltimore Ravens (Def#16, Reed+Suggs, although they'll be pricier based on name value), SD Chargers (Def#17, Merriman+Cromartie, although they also have some residual name value driving up the cost), Texans (Def#19, Mario Williams + Demeco Ryans), 49ers (Def#20, Willis), and Panthers (Def#22, Peppers). If you're looking to acquire some really terrible defenses on the super-cheap (most of these will probably be on waivers), I'd look long and hard at the Chiefs (Def#28 with a ton of young talent from the past 2 drafts), Jaguars (Def#30 and Heyward, Spicer, and Mathis are all quality players who wouldn't shock me if they became major playmakers), and Rams (Def#32, Chris Long, James Laurinitis, whoever else they wind up drafting high).
Thanks SSOG! I know they are down in the rankings but since I already have AJ/VJax/Hester I am looking to build the best reserve WR corp possible this year. Next year I will focus on adding/trading for additional RB depth. It seems this league still values the RB higher so there's more value is to be had in WR's. As RBBC becomes more the norm I see the younger Wr's as the better value long-term.And Thanks F&L for your updated WR rankings!
You guys have been a great help (6-3 defending champs).
As for Def/ST's I just pick who I like to watch. If it's a really bad week I pluck from the waiver wire ahead of time.
I've always been a PIT def fan so they are my dynasty def. I usually try to land a def that will cover their bye week and give me one or two other favorable matchups.
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jdoggydogg
Footballguy
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Any reason that you are particularly low on Meachem? I had my doubts but he continues to make plays when given the chance. I understand the depth NO has at that position, but Colston and Moore have both had there share of injuries.
SSOG
Moderator
He's clearly worse than Colston, and I think he's clearly worse than Henderson, too. He's probably on par with Lance Moore. If he stays in New Orleans, then he won't be able to earn targets. If he leave New Orleans, he no longer has Brees propping up his value. Just not a fan.
What are peoples thoughts on Miles Austins price? Trying to trade for him in non ppr dynasty. Feel free to offer PPR based opinions too.
I don't know a ton about him. I do know he has six tds in 4 games and though he was held in check by Philly for the most part he made them look silly in one play. Big, explosive, great at breaking tackles. Hands? Routes?
I was gently rebuffed when I offered Hester, Choice and two late first rounders for Warner and Austin. I really agonized over Hester too, I love him and I think he will continue to improve but I also have Fitz, VJax, Harvin, and Nicks.
What's he worth, what's he cost?
I don't know a ton about him. I do know he has six tds in 4 games and though he was held in check by Philly for the most part he made them look silly in one play. Big, explosive, great at breaking tackles. Hands? Routes?
I was gently rebuffed when I offered Hester, Choice and two late first rounders for Warner and Austin. I really agonized over Hester too, I love him and I think he will continue to improve but I also have Fitz, VJax, Harvin, and Nicks.
What's he worth, what's he cost?
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Total crapshoot. Really, really a crapshoot. Yet most owners don't get it. I'm in a league where owners keep bidding more than the minimum for a defense and signing them to long term contracts because "a defense can't get hurt or retire". Whatever.Defenses deserve minimum bids or the last picks in the draft. They are too difficult to predict. if your league allows it, play the waiver wire each week.Defensive performance is very matchup dependent. so look at matchups.A good source for DST predictions is Footballoutsiders.com.
I tried to trade him as the WR1 for RB10 Gore and was shot down.Could have traded him even up for Mendenhall.Ended up trading Austin + JStew + 3rd for Mendenhall + Jennings + Marshall.This is a keep-4 league. My other keepers are Brees, Colston & Calvin.
Mayor of Bracketville
Footballguy
Curious to get some thoughts on the following from the excellent posters in this thread:
(1) What are the dynasty values of the following players with uncertainly regarding their situations for 2010 and beyond:
-Chris Henry (He's out for the remainder of 2009 and is a free agent after this season, I believe)
-Chester Taylor (Backing up one of the best RB in the league and is also a free agent following this season, I believe)
Which one would you rather have on your team?
(2) If you were looking to improve at TE, which TE would you focus on trying to acquire?
Which one(s) would you be looking to acquire if you were guaranteed a playoff spot and were looking for an upgrade for the 2009 playoffs AND the future?
(1) What are the dynasty values of the following players with uncertainly regarding their situations for 2010 and beyond:
-Chris Henry (He's out for the remainder of 2009 and is a free agent after this season, I believe)
-Chester Taylor (Backing up one of the best RB in the league and is also a free agent following this season, I believe)
Which one would you rather have on your team?
(2) If you were looking to improve at TE, which TE would you focus on trying to acquire?
Which one(s) would you be looking to acquire if you were guaranteed a playoff spot and were looking for an upgrade for the 2009 playoffs AND the future?
SSOG
Moderator
1) Little, None, and Neither, in that order. Henry's supposedly this unreal talent who's just weeks away from putting it together at any given time. Meh. When I see him, I see a quality deep threat with perhaps the highest knucklehead quotient in the league and little else going for him. And now I see an injured deep threat with the highest knucklehead quotient in the league with an uncertain bill of health and a cloudy future. I don't think any team is going to take a chance on him as a starting WR after all he's been through and what little he's shown... so it just becomes a matter of whether he becomes a WR3 in one of the handful of offenses where the WR3 has even the remotest fantasy value. Chester, on the other hand, is a 30 year old average talent who's about to become a 31 year old free agent. His upside is Correll Buckhalter. His downside is Lamont Jordan. There's just not enough there worth taking a risk on, imo. I'd rather roster neither guy and instead use the roster spot on a longshot with a bit of upside, like Ramses Barden or Sammie Stroughter or Ben Tate.2) I'd be looking to buy low on Dustin Keller. He's too good of a receiver to keep putting up such bad numbers. If you're looking for someone who'll be playoff-caliber this year, then you're looking more at a Brent Celek, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten, or one of the other proven performers... but, of course, then you're going to have to pay a premium because they're already producing. Keller won't get you as much late this season as those guys, but I think he'll do better than he's done so far (which means he won't get you killed), and I think he'll be just as good going forward as those guys.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Why?Henderson is nothing more than a situational deep threat. Meachem is a multi-skilled WR with first-round talent. He was easily the most effective WR on the field for the Saints last week, and he's shown a nose for the end zone.
To say he's clearly worse than Henderson is like saying Miles Austin was clearly worse than Patrick Crayton two months ago ... or Jacoby Jones is clearly worse than Kevin Walter.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
I had the same question when I read that.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
some thoughts on mccoy...
it is true that being the heir apparent doesn't guarantee westbrook-like production, but he could produce less and still be valuable.
due to splitting time with duce staley earlier in his career, and correl buckhalter (when he wasn't on IR with a knee injury), and questions about whether he could withstand the punishment of a more prominent role (subsequently shown to be unfounded), westbrook only had more than 617 rushing yards once in his first four seasons.
when he broke out in his fifth season, he was 27. mccoy is only 21, and looks like he could be well ahead of schedule to become the "feature RB" relative to westbrook.
westbrook had more than 3 rushing TDs just once in that same first four season time frame (pre-27), and has had more than 7 rushing TDs (which he has done three times) just once (9 last season).
where it will be hard to keep up is as a receiver. westbrook is one of the best receiving RBs i've seen in the past few decades, along with marshall faulk and reggie bush. all of them could be split out and deployed like WRs, run WR routes, have WR hands (imagine any of them in the old ATL red gun that had eric metcalf, bert emanual, terrance mathis, etc).
after his second year, he had 600-700+ receiving yards the next four seasons (falling off to 400+ last year)... after his rookie year, he had 4-6 receiving TDs every season through 2008.
mccoy, who has started a few games when westbrook was out and shared carries otherwise, is pacing for about 700 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs and 300+ receiving yards. he isn't as big or physical as westbrook, who had deceptive strength and especially lower body power, as well as superb contact balance and tackle breaking ability (at his best, you never saw westbrook get arm tackled).
like knowshon moreno and donald brown, mccoy has above average hands (probably a big reason reid thought he would be a perfect fit in their offense, and made a lot of sense as heir apparent to westbrook), the drops against the Cowboys notwithstanding. and it should be added, reid has proven he likes to throw to RBs. mccoy could be a bigger beneficiary in the future. they are among the best in the business in the screen game.
some seem unimpressed, but i liked the big plays in recent weeeks (60+ yarder for a TD two weeks ago, and a 40+ yarder against DAL).
it will sound like sacrilege, but when i saw his prep and collegiate highlights, in his movement skills, lateral quickness and agilty, vision and instincts, ability to set up blockers, elusiveness and overall open field running ability, he reminded me a : LITTLE : of gale sayers. i'm not saying he is anywhere close to that good, just certain ways he eluded tacklers were at times reminiscent for me. he has a very smooth, under control, gliding running style. for more recent vintage comp players, i think he is bigger than warrick dunn and a bit smaller but similar in size to tiki barber (again, not making exact comparisons on a one-to-one correspondence level, but there could be similarities in physical traits/skill set).
also, if desean jackson and maclin are as good as they look, the eagles could be around the goal line a lot in the future. though smaller than moreno and brown (and a lot smaller than beanie wells from the RB class of '09), he was a highly effective scorer at Pitt.
* is there a consensus on how long is it thought westbrook will remain the starter in PHI? does mccoy inherit the mantle as soon as next season? 2011?
** like virtually all young RBs, he needs to mature physically, and to be coached up and put in a lot of hard work to become more technically sound in blitz pickup and pass protection. i have no doubt reid has already impressed on him the need to get that critically important component done before he can begin to play an even bigger role in the offense, and i think he will help him get there.
*** another factor to look at here in this context could be durability... westbrook has missed at least one game in every season (four times), two, three and four games once each prior to 2009, and already three games this season. he has missed 16 games (the equivalent to a season, when put like that) spread over 7 1/2 seasons, more than 2 per season. IF mccoy can avoid injury better, that could also help close the scoring gap... partly neutralizing the talent gap through sheer numbers, by potentially suiting up more consistently.
**** a couple reports (pre/post-draft) from one of my favorite RB (& IDP) scouting profilers, "IDP" tony nowak of FFT...
LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh – 2SO) 5’11” 204
Combine Invite: Yes
"After a record-breaking freshman year, expectations were high for McCoy and Pitt, who went in to the season with a Top-25 ranking. Both got out of the gate slow when Bowling Green came to town for the season opener and upset the Panthers by containing McCoy. He finished with 71 yards at a 3.1 ypc clip with no run over 12 yards, but did score an 11-yard TD on the opening drive and had five receptions for 45 yards. The following week, he scored all three TDs for the Panthers on short runs in a close victory over a surprising Buffalo squad. He was seven yards short of his first 100 yard rushing game, but went over 100 all-purpose yards again with a 24-yard reception. After a bye, McCoy scored the eventual game-winning TD in a one-point win over Iowa when he burst through the middle, then cut across the field and outran the rest of the defense 27 yards untouched. He was held in check most of the day, but on that pivotal drive he rushed for 41 yards and caught a 28-yard reception. At Syracuse, to open the Big East season, he notched his first 100-yard game. He rushed for 149 yards and started a five-game string where he would average 152.4 yards rushing and score 10 TDs, including the game-winner in an upset at #10 USF and a season-long 58-yarder at Navy. Against Louisville, the Cardinals put all their focus on McCoy and held him at negative yardage during the second half. He did run for an 11-yard TD on a direct snap and completed his second career pass for 14 yards. McCoy finished with a career-low 39 yards rushing, but Pitt blew out Louisville. He missed rushing for 100 yards again at Cincinnati, but ran for two TDs and had 127 combined yards in the loss. McCoy owned WVU in the Backyard Brawl for the second straight year, rushing for a career-high 183 yards, including a game-winning one-yard TD run, his second of the game, after carrying the ball nine of ten times on the decisive drive. In a regular season finale showdown with fellow standout underclassmen Donald Brown, McCoy was slightly less productive, but his 47-yard TD run in the third quarter began a 24-point outburst that led the team to victory at UConn. McCoy was limited to 85 yards on 24 carries in a disappointing offensive performance in a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. After leading the Panthers to their first bowl since 2004, McCoy reversed early comments that he would return and, following an apparently agonizing decision process, declared he would enter the draft. McCoy finished his second season with 1,488 rushing yards on 308 carries and 21 TDs, tied for second in FBS.
In my preseason preview, I expected Shady to go the route of Panther alum Larry Fitzgerald and declare after just two seasons if he had similar success, but he improved on his numbers as a sophomore despite a target on his back every game. I expect him to find similar success to Fitzgerald at the next level, as well. McCoy is rare in his ability to thrive inside and outside. A natural runner with outstanding instincts and balance, he has breakaway speed once he gets to the second level. His balance really stands out to me watching him on film, just amazing how it contributes to his ability to change direction and break tackles. A compact runner with great elusiveness through the line and ankle-breaking moves in the open field, it’s hard to get a clean shot on him. Also a very good receiver with soft hands and awareness, he had 33 receptions in 2007 and 32 in 2008.
Ball security is one of the few holes in his game. He has also been accused of trying to bounce too much outside, but I don’t see it. He thrives between the tackles and heads to the edges when the situation dictates it. A bit thin through the hips, there’s some concern if he can carry more bulk, but he appears to have enough talent to succeed regardless. He’ll be 20 years old at the start of his first NFL season and with unlimited potential, he should be one of the first three backs selected."
________________________________________________________________________________
"Shady’s stock began to drop after he had to bow out of performing Combine drills due to a rough battle with the flu. He had a solid, but unspectacular Pro Day a month later, but it was apparent he had lost ground to some of the other consensus top runners in the class. Once viewed as a potential first-round pick, McCoy fell late into the second round. However, he rocketed back up fantasy rankings because of where he fell – Philly. In the Eagles high-powered offense with Brian Westbrook turning 30 before the season starts while coming off a left knee scope in February and a cleaning of his right ankle in June, McCoy falls in to one of the best back-up situations available. It’s too soon to write-off Westbrook, but HC Andy Reid’s offense spreads the ball around, so McCoy should have some opportunities out of the gate and is a must-have handcuff to the starter. Going forward, McCoy has a bright dynasty future with the skill set to eventually replace Westbrook directly."
***** LINKS
mccoy's soph highlights (like moreno, he only played two years in college)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IvvhjERrV0
his page at eagles.com, that keeps a running total of his accomplishments (his production is stacking up pretty well against the other rookies in the early going... moreno is #1 in rushing yards and #2 in combined yards, mccoy is #2 & #1 in those stat columns, respectively)... includes a nice testimonial by fellow star Panther RB alum tony dorsett... forgot his two year TD production was among the highest in collegiate history (bettering fellow two and done star Panther alum larry fitzgerald)...
http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/eagles_f...ml/mccoy_1.html
it is true that being the heir apparent doesn't guarantee westbrook-like production, but he could produce less and still be valuable.
due to splitting time with duce staley earlier in his career, and correl buckhalter (when he wasn't on IR with a knee injury), and questions about whether he could withstand the punishment of a more prominent role (subsequently shown to be unfounded), westbrook only had more than 617 rushing yards once in his first four seasons.
when he broke out in his fifth season, he was 27. mccoy is only 21, and looks like he could be well ahead of schedule to become the "feature RB" relative to westbrook.
westbrook had more than 3 rushing TDs just once in that same first four season time frame (pre-27), and has had more than 7 rushing TDs (which he has done three times) just once (9 last season).
where it will be hard to keep up is as a receiver. westbrook is one of the best receiving RBs i've seen in the past few decades, along with marshall faulk and reggie bush. all of them could be split out and deployed like WRs, run WR routes, have WR hands (imagine any of them in the old ATL red gun that had eric metcalf, bert emanual, terrance mathis, etc).
after his second year, he had 600-700+ receiving yards the next four seasons (falling off to 400+ last year)... after his rookie year, he had 4-6 receiving TDs every season through 2008.
mccoy, who has started a few games when westbrook was out and shared carries otherwise, is pacing for about 700 rushing yards, 4 rushing TDs and 300+ receiving yards. he isn't as big or physical as westbrook, who had deceptive strength and especially lower body power, as well as superb contact balance and tackle breaking ability (at his best, you never saw westbrook get arm tackled).
like knowshon moreno and donald brown, mccoy has above average hands (probably a big reason reid thought he would be a perfect fit in their offense, and made a lot of sense as heir apparent to westbrook), the drops against the Cowboys notwithstanding. and it should be added, reid has proven he likes to throw to RBs. mccoy could be a bigger beneficiary in the future. they are among the best in the business in the screen game.
some seem unimpressed, but i liked the big plays in recent weeeks (60+ yarder for a TD two weeks ago, and a 40+ yarder against DAL).
it will sound like sacrilege, but when i saw his prep and collegiate highlights, in his movement skills, lateral quickness and agilty, vision and instincts, ability to set up blockers, elusiveness and overall open field running ability, he reminded me a : LITTLE : of gale sayers. i'm not saying he is anywhere close to that good, just certain ways he eluded tacklers were at times reminiscent for me. he has a very smooth, under control, gliding running style. for more recent vintage comp players, i think he is bigger than warrick dunn and a bit smaller but similar in size to tiki barber (again, not making exact comparisons on a one-to-one correspondence level, but there could be similarities in physical traits/skill set).
also, if desean jackson and maclin are as good as they look, the eagles could be around the goal line a lot in the future. though smaller than moreno and brown (and a lot smaller than beanie wells from the RB class of '09), he was a highly effective scorer at Pitt.
* is there a consensus on how long is it thought westbrook will remain the starter in PHI? does mccoy inherit the mantle as soon as next season? 2011?
** like virtually all young RBs, he needs to mature physically, and to be coached up and put in a lot of hard work to become more technically sound in blitz pickup and pass protection. i have no doubt reid has already impressed on him the need to get that critically important component done before he can begin to play an even bigger role in the offense, and i think he will help him get there.
*** another factor to look at here in this context could be durability... westbrook has missed at least one game in every season (four times), two, three and four games once each prior to 2009, and already three games this season. he has missed 16 games (the equivalent to a season, when put like that) spread over 7 1/2 seasons, more than 2 per season. IF mccoy can avoid injury better, that could also help close the scoring gap... partly neutralizing the talent gap through sheer numbers, by potentially suiting up more consistently.
**** a couple reports (pre/post-draft) from one of my favorite RB (& IDP) scouting profilers, "IDP" tony nowak of FFT...
LeSean McCoy (Pittsburgh – 2SO) 5’11” 204
Combine Invite: Yes
"After a record-breaking freshman year, expectations were high for McCoy and Pitt, who went in to the season with a Top-25 ranking. Both got out of the gate slow when Bowling Green came to town for the season opener and upset the Panthers by containing McCoy. He finished with 71 yards at a 3.1 ypc clip with no run over 12 yards, but did score an 11-yard TD on the opening drive and had five receptions for 45 yards. The following week, he scored all three TDs for the Panthers on short runs in a close victory over a surprising Buffalo squad. He was seven yards short of his first 100 yard rushing game, but went over 100 all-purpose yards again with a 24-yard reception. After a bye, McCoy scored the eventual game-winning TD in a one-point win over Iowa when he burst through the middle, then cut across the field and outran the rest of the defense 27 yards untouched. He was held in check most of the day, but on that pivotal drive he rushed for 41 yards and caught a 28-yard reception. At Syracuse, to open the Big East season, he notched his first 100-yard game. He rushed for 149 yards and started a five-game string where he would average 152.4 yards rushing and score 10 TDs, including the game-winner in an upset at #10 USF and a season-long 58-yarder at Navy. Against Louisville, the Cardinals put all their focus on McCoy and held him at negative yardage during the second half. He did run for an 11-yard TD on a direct snap and completed his second career pass for 14 yards. McCoy finished with a career-low 39 yards rushing, but Pitt blew out Louisville. He missed rushing for 100 yards again at Cincinnati, but ran for two TDs and had 127 combined yards in the loss. McCoy owned WVU in the Backyard Brawl for the second straight year, rushing for a career-high 183 yards, including a game-winning one-yard TD run, his second of the game, after carrying the ball nine of ten times on the decisive drive. In a regular season finale showdown with fellow standout underclassmen Donald Brown, McCoy was slightly less productive, but his 47-yard TD run in the third quarter began a 24-point outburst that led the team to victory at UConn. McCoy was limited to 85 yards on 24 carries in a disappointing offensive performance in a 3-0 loss to Oregon State in the Sun Bowl. After leading the Panthers to their first bowl since 2004, McCoy reversed early comments that he would return and, following an apparently agonizing decision process, declared he would enter the draft. McCoy finished his second season with 1,488 rushing yards on 308 carries and 21 TDs, tied for second in FBS.
In my preseason preview, I expected Shady to go the route of Panther alum Larry Fitzgerald and declare after just two seasons if he had similar success, but he improved on his numbers as a sophomore despite a target on his back every game. I expect him to find similar success to Fitzgerald at the next level, as well. McCoy is rare in his ability to thrive inside and outside. A natural runner with outstanding instincts and balance, he has breakaway speed once he gets to the second level. His balance really stands out to me watching him on film, just amazing how it contributes to his ability to change direction and break tackles. A compact runner with great elusiveness through the line and ankle-breaking moves in the open field, it’s hard to get a clean shot on him. Also a very good receiver with soft hands and awareness, he had 33 receptions in 2007 and 32 in 2008.
Ball security is one of the few holes in his game. He has also been accused of trying to bounce too much outside, but I don’t see it. He thrives between the tackles and heads to the edges when the situation dictates it. A bit thin through the hips, there’s some concern if he can carry more bulk, but he appears to have enough talent to succeed regardless. He’ll be 20 years old at the start of his first NFL season and with unlimited potential, he should be one of the first three backs selected."
________________________________________________________________________________
"Shady’s stock began to drop after he had to bow out of performing Combine drills due to a rough battle with the flu. He had a solid, but unspectacular Pro Day a month later, but it was apparent he had lost ground to some of the other consensus top runners in the class. Once viewed as a potential first-round pick, McCoy fell late into the second round. However, he rocketed back up fantasy rankings because of where he fell – Philly. In the Eagles high-powered offense with Brian Westbrook turning 30 before the season starts while coming off a left knee scope in February and a cleaning of his right ankle in June, McCoy falls in to one of the best back-up situations available. It’s too soon to write-off Westbrook, but HC Andy Reid’s offense spreads the ball around, so McCoy should have some opportunities out of the gate and is a must-have handcuff to the starter. Going forward, McCoy has a bright dynasty future with the skill set to eventually replace Westbrook directly."
***** LINKS
mccoy's soph highlights (like moreno, he only played two years in college)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IvvhjERrV0
his page at eagles.com, that keeps a running total of his accomplishments (his production is stacking up pretty well against the other rookies in the early going... moreno is #1 in rushing yards and #2 in combined yards, mccoy is #2 & #1 in those stat columns, respectively)... includes a nice testimonial by fellow star Panther RB alum tony dorsett... forgot his two year TD production was among the highest in collegiate history (bettering fellow two and done star Panther alum larry fitzgerald)...
http://www.philadelphiaeagles.com/eagles_f...ml/mccoy_1.html
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SSOG
Moderator
Because Henderson is a PHENOMENAL situational deep threat. Sort of what everyone has always billed Chris Henry as. He's averaging a mind-boggling 11.3 yards per TARGET this season. And that's actually a TERRIBLE season by Henderson's standards. In 2006, Henderson averaged a ludicrous 13.8 yards per target. In 2008, Henderson averaged a STUPEFYING 14.2 yards per target. 14.2! He averaged almost as many yards per target last year as noted deep threat Santonio Holmes averaged per RECEPTION. I've discussed the problems with using DVOA as a means of evaluating players before, but what DVOA is fantastic at is evaluating players within their specific role within their specific offense... and Devery Henderson was the #1 WR in DVOA in two of the past three seasons (he's 11th so far this season). That doesn't mean he's secretly some stud WR and he needs a bigger role (although he could probably stand to see a slight increase in usage), but what it does mean is that nobody in the entire NFL was more effective within their role within their offense than Devery Henderson. Sure, he's a situational player, but he's arguably the best and most successful situational player in the entire NFL, and there is no way in hell that he sees his role decrease no matter what Meachem does.So... Meachem is 100% stuck behind Marques Colston, who does everything Meachem does, except better across the board. Meachem has no shot of chipping into Henderson's role, which is absolutely chiseled in granite at this point. That leaves him fighting for table scraps with Lance Moore, who has also been extremely effective in the Saints' offense. And it's not like the table scraps are enough for a WR to live off of. Meachem has 19 targets this year. 19. It hardly inspires confidence.
Like I said, either Meachem stays in New Orleans and lives off of the table scraps (which aren't enough to sustain him as a fantasy WR), or else he leave New Orleans and he loses the miracle that is Drew Brees (and I have yet to see whether Meachem's effectiveness this season is a result of Meachem, or is a result of Drew Brees).
Yes, he's a multi-skilled WR with first round talent... but so is Kenny Britt, and nobody batted an eye at me putting Britt so far down my list.
EthnicFury
Footballguy
minor issue, but in your latest WR rankings MSW drops a tier and 6 value points, but is listed as green like his value's going up...what's going on with him? Has he actually moved at all since the last rankings and if so what direction and why?
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I'm a Maclin fan, but I like that deal for you. Boldin is not old by WR standards and still has a lot of value in dynasty formats. Maclin is off to a good start, but we know Boldin is a stud, injury issues aside. I'm not a fan of Charles either, so you really didn't give up much IMO.
You have very positive things to say about Flacco.Would you move Warner for Flacco?That would leave me with Flacco + Doucher for the playoff run.I know Warner has the best playoff schedule around so I guess I'm taking a risk if I do it for future QB value.I would give Warner + Collie + Meachem and receive Flacco + SHolmes
GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
I think you offered entirely way too much for Miles and should be glad the guy rejected. Austin was traded for Pierre Thomas in a PPR league of mine if that helps. Hester > Miles IMO. Choice is about as good of a hold as you can find at the RB positon. Warner has almost 0 value in dynasty leagues right now. He's not the 2008 Kurt Warner. The two 1st round picks for Miles would have been a more than fair offer IMO. Hester, Choice & two late 1st round picks should net you more than Miles & Warner.samNhenry said:
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GreatLakesMike
Footballguy
How does everyone feel about Welker in PPR leagues? I've received some really bad offers for him, which puzzles me. This guy has been a #1 in PPR leagues for going on 3 straight years now. I understand that Welker shouldn't be valued as high as Fitz, Calvin, and AJ.... but the offers I'm getting are on par with what should be offered for a 27 year old low end #2 WR/high end #3 WR. I think he should be valued as a high end #2 at the very least in PPR leagues.
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I was wondering your thoughts on Slaton, Is he worth a late first round pick? and does it matter or make a difference if you have Moats? Would you rather be the buyer or seller for the 1st round pick for Slaton? I have read alot on the issue, but haven't seen much if anything about actual pick value of Slaton. I always enjoy looking through this thread and reading about the rational for different players value. Thanks for the continued efforts by all the quality posters in this thread.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
I would never be a buyer for Slaton. If you've been following along for more than a week or two, it would be clear that this thread is where Slaton lovers go to die.
Unfortunately, at 109 pages, it's become too unwieldy to go back and search for comments on specific players. Suffice it to say, we have effectively killed any talk of Slaton being some under-appreciated Dynasty pearl.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
In a Dynasty league, moving Warner for Flacco right now is a no-brainer. I wouldn't count on the other guy doing it, though. Warner isn't the same QB he was last year, and Flacco is much improved. Edit to add: If that is the actual offer on the table, you're wasting time in here. Go to your site immediately and click "accept."I've gotten quite a bit of interest in Warner in my Full Contact league this week. Maybe I should be aggressively looking to move him. Apparently the 5-TD performance has people excited about him going forward.
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Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Hey, what can I tell you, other WRs are moving up too. MSW's value is still rising IMO. I just think he's still in the No. 20 range.EthnicFury said:
valhallan
Footballguy
I find it interesting that your main argument for Henderson is his yards per target, when Meachem is averaging 15 yards per target in his career. You also just admitted Henderson is what he is - a great deep threat. He's in no danger of seeing increased targets.SSOG said:
I think it's likely Meachem doesn't carve out a larger role this year, but that's more a function of the way Payton has chosen to run the team. He's not making any changes while they're winning, from Reggie Bush's role right on down to keeping Carney over Hartley. Next year, it's very possible the offense evolves to have Meachem playing Boldin to Colston's Fitz and Henderson's Breaston. Yes yes, he's no Boldin (though he was compared to him pre-draft) - I'm simply trying to lay out what I think their roles could be. I see Meachem having a good chance at being a move the chains type with great YAC potential, while Colston draws coverage and remains the redzone threat with his glue hands, and Henderson stretches the field in 3-WR sets like he always has.
So wait, now you're saying Meachem is effective but maybe he doesn't deserve credit for it? If you're not sure how much should be attributed to Brees, then how can you be so sure Henderson's play is a function of his own talent? And don't tell me because he was doing it before Brees - he's had a grand total of one playing season sans Brees, and Aaron Brooks, for all his faults, was no slouch on the deep ball.
Oh I certainly batted an eye. However, there's not much to say about Britt right now that hasn't already been said. When he's been thrown to, he's looked the part - problem is he's not being thrown to anymore. I like him, but then again I also drafted him so I should probably like him more than someone who didn't. I see no reason to argue for him right now - next season will give us more knowledge about his prospects.Yes, he's a multi-skilled WR with first round talent... but so is Kenny Britt, and nobody batted an eye at me putting Britt so far down my list.
Baron Samedi
Footballguy
I have a question /comment about steve smith's(car) ranking. How could he be at #11 when I offer him straight up in my dynasty PPR for anyone ranked in the top 27 I'm laughed at? I feel there is no other WR who's trade value is more in the toilet and I can't believe he's at #11 when I can't give the dude anyway in a 12 team 30 roster league. Two late rookie 2nd RD picks was the best offer I got so far, IHMO #11 is crazy.
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Maybe he's a perfect BUY now......if you are down on him maybe all Smith owners are and am willing to take a chance on him if price is right.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Because the rest of the guys in your league are clueless?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Well said. I batted an eye too, but I didn't say anything because we've gotten off track with all of these "who should I target in a trade for so and so" and "would you rank this group of players for me" posts.F&L,
I have James Jones. Jacoby Jones is available, and you just moved him up (because Daniels went down?).
I was thinking of dropping Mike Thomas for Jacoby.
Maybe you could explain where you think each of the Jones' stands for next year and beyond?
At this point are they basically a wash until we see more?
Cheers.
I have James Jones. Jacoby Jones is available, and you just moved him up (because Daniels went down?).
I was thinking of dropping Mike Thomas for Jacoby.
Maybe you could explain where you think each of the Jones' stands for next year and beyond?
At this point are they basically a wash until we see more?
Cheers.
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n20
Footballguy
Let's talk about Matty Ice. To me, Matt Ryan is still on pace to be a fantasy stud by year 4 (In my mind that's when we can fairly judge him versus other established starters). F&L, I know you were high on him but recently he's fallen in your rankings (and his value number has decreased). Do you think he is regressing? I know the stats aren't as great as everyone would have hoped but I think most of that can be attributed to the running game struggling early, missing Roddy White through most of camp and all the injuries at receiver hurt Ryan's continuity for the first half of the season. He's still on pace for a healthy number of TD's this year...
What does everyone think going forward?
What does everyone think going forward?
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Knight who says Ni
Footballguy
This is my first year playing in a dynasty league, and I am struggling with something at the moment - I have Frank Gore who I cannot keep because he would be prohibitively expensive to do so (it's also an auction league). I have been offered Lesean McCoy in a package deal for Gore; McCoy would be much cheaper to keep, so that is an attractive possibility, but I am also in the thick of the playoff hunt and I don't want to downgrade on what could be. The actual offer was Bowe + McCoy for Gore ... maybe I'm insane for not considering it, but my squad is pretty decent and it isn't a huge upgrade. I've got Rice, Gore, Caddy for RBs, Cotch, C.J., Lee Evans, and Maclin for WRs. Am I insane for not pulling the trigger?
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
No, I don't think he's regressing. I think the Falcons are riding Michael Turner while he's white-hot.I think other QBs, specifically Big Ben and Aaron Rodgers, are just producing too well in the present and have plenty of future value of their own. That's why Ryan was dropped. I'm still sky-high on Ryan.
