2009 (FINAL) DYNASTY RANKINGS
These are my final ’09 rankings for dynasty formats. I’ve expanded the rankings of each offensive skill position, grouped them into still only 3 tiers (bolded, underlined) to keep it simple. The 3 tiers are RS, SS, TS and sleepers have been removed. However, there is a distinction from the top-end to the bottom-end of the largest tier (TS) in most cases. Commentary is included to not only critique the players but also to break down their current situations as I view it in a quick snapshot.
Let me stress that these rankings are based on PPR (1 pt per reception) leagues. That’s what I enjoy the most and if I have 10 leagues, at least 9 of ‘em would be PPR. These leagues, IMO, offer more versatility and bring different strategies to the table to promote much more lively leagues. My thinking is for the most part non-consensus, as I will (rarely) look at anyone else’s rankings, I primarily go by what my eyes see first and foremost, and as a supplement what I read from reports and information from scouts/personnel people. Some of your favorites may not be high on my lists, and some of mine not as high on yours, but hey, hopefully that's what this fantasy game is about, differences in approach and projections. Since I’m done with my dynasty startups for the year, I decided to update my previous posting from Oct. 2008. Interesting to note is that not a whole lot has changed from my early thoughts, but of course, some things had to be revised after further analysis. Anyways, have at it and feedback/criticism/discussion is welcomed.
THE RUNNERS.......MEAT ‘N POTATOES OF YOUR FANTASY MEAL
RS…..REIGN SUPREME
1. Adrian Peterson RB 6’1 ½ “ 220 Vikings
With a lethal combination of size, power, speed, and agility, “All-Day” stands alone at the top of the pile. No current RB can match Peterson’s overall skill set and he stands as the most legitimate yearly threat to amass 2300+ total yards with double-digit TDs. As the weapons continue to evolve around him, especially at QB, this beast will continue to dominate for the foreseeable future making him the absolute, clear-cut #1 RB in dynasty leagues.
SS…SIMPLY SUPERB aka SUPER STUDS
2. Maurice Jones-Drew RB 5’6” 210 Jaguars
“The Human Bowling Ball of Butcher Knives” is quite simply one of the best football players in the NFL, able to do all of the things necessary to assist his team to victory. However, sometimes these things (blocking, kick returns, etc.) haven’t always translated into huge fantasy success. Now, with his mentor Fred Taylor off in N.E., MJD has the spotlight all to himself in the Jags’ backfield. And we simply don’t expect him to not deliver, as he is not only a dynamic playmaker, capable of ripping off huge gainers and multiple TD efforts any given Sunday, but he has always received a lot of goal-line work and this should continue as he receives a pretty nice bump in touches. After signing a huge contract extension this offseason and with Taylor’s exit, MJD is poised for his best season yet, although I still do not believe he will amass much more than 300 total touches. And if the Jags are smart, he shouldn’t. They need him to be fresh down the stretch and in the playoffs, if they make it in.
3. Reggie Bush RB 6’0” 205 Saints
All the “RBI” haters take note…that’s Reggie Bush Incredible……I’ve listened to you yap on-and-on about he can’t do this, he can’t do that. Well, let me tell you what he can do…Win you fantasy championships! As previously stated, I’m primarily focused on PPR leagues, and for my $$$ “RBI” is as valuable as any player in the league. The ultimate dual-threat out of the backfield, he continues to pile up the points at a very high and consistent rate, as his per game avg. shows. Other than more games, what more can you ask for? I’m sure the haters will find something.
4. Matt Forte RB 6’1” 220 Bears
For all the doubters who lacked faith in Forte from the beginning and for some of those same doubters who still continue to knock the guy, let it go. Just admit you were, and still are, wrong…..It’s OK to miss on some evaluations, but to continue down the same erroneous path is just not smart at some point. Hop on board the train, it’s not too late. The reality of the situation is that Forte is a big-time producer. Blessed with great vision and elite feet, this guy has a very nice package of speed, power, instincts (especially his natural-looking cutback ability), and receiving skill to become, dare I say, great. He reminds me a lot of Marcus Allen. Don’t believe the haters, this kid is “The Postmaster”…goods and services gov’t certified, the cat is for real!
5. Jonathan Stewart RB 5’10” 235 Panthers
Being ahead of the curve is what this particular ranking is about, as I’ve seen enough of J-Stew to realize that this guy is what I’ll call…NO JOKE! He will bring defenders the business on every down, and once the full load is placed at his talented feet, which is coming soon (date of this commentary is Oct. 2, 2008), the league will witness a dominant force. I would not rule out this guy being #2 on the list in my projections for 2010. Strong as a bull, with excellent vision and burst, combined with very nice agility and the speed to take it to the house, the resulting product is Jonathan “NO JOKE!” Stewart…
6. Steven Jackson RB 6’2” 232 Rams
S-Jax, already in his prime for a RB (will be 26 yrs old in ‘09), has to hit the ground running (literally) heading into the ’09 season to maintain a hold of this lofty status. The new regime has placed most of the offensive burden on Jackson, and he is more than capable of carrying a heavy load. Although not an elite talent, IMO, S-Jax is a true workhorse who is ultra-competitive with versatility being his primary asset allowing him to put up great all-around numbers. The Rams have rebuilt their o-line by adding some topnotch talent in C Jason Brown and prized first round OT Jason Smith. With a shift to the West Coast offense, Jackson should be primed for a monster season, as long as he can hold up physically to the demanding workload.
7. Steve Slaton RB 5’10” 207 Texans
By not bringing in a high-priced F.A. or high round draftee at the RB position, I’m going to go out on a limb here and state that the Texans already have their marquee RB. Everyone knew that Slaton had the wheels to turn corners like a “Lambo”…that’s a Lamborghini for the linguistically lagging…but what I’ve been extremely impressed with is his willingness, and toughness, on inside runs. He runs with very good pad level and surprising power. Now he will never be confused with Adrian Peterson running inside, but in all honestly, I didn’t believe that he could do it even marginally at the NFL level. That said, I still look for this guy to be paired up with an inside “banger” eventually, but his overall versatility and play-making ability will still merit him the lead dog and compels me to a favorable comparison of Slaton to Westbrook, much more so than Chris Johnson being compared to Westbrook.
8. Frank Gore RB 5’9 ½” 212 49’ers
Gore has always been an extremely talented, yet under-appreciated RB (in fantasy circles). Exhibiting one of the best “body leans” in the game, this guy always seems to be on balance and churning forward, bursting through the slightest of openings while finishing runs with the best of ‘em. This guy is in phenomenal shape, so look for “The Inconvenient Truth” to be amongst the Top 4-5 in total yards from scrimmage for the foreseeable future. If he ever boosts his TD total, Watch Out!
9. Chris Johnson RB 5’11” 200 Titans
Johnson exhibits superior top-end speed, but what really separates him from the pack is his burst/acceleration, which is off the charts. Once this young man spots an opening, he’s through it faster than the speed of light. Yes, the kid is electrifying. And just maybe a little tougher than I anticipated as he also runs in between the tackles fairly well for a smallish back, ala Brian Westbrook in this regard. I don’t see a true comparison though to the overall skill set of Westbrook, unless he starts to display Westbrook’s/Bush’s supreme receiving ability. Not a knock on him, he just hasn’t yet displayed their pass-catching skill level, which could be the final piece of the puzzle to elevate him into the RS stratosphere…
10. Michael Turner RB 5’10” 238 Falcons
A literal “wrecking-ball” of a runner, Turner has immediately ingratiated himself to legions of fantasy diehards, some (like me) who were pretty skeptical of his decision to sign with ATL. This guy is a tough inside runner who is very difficult to bring down hombre-y-hombre and a threat to break off a long run at any moment. I’ll assume that the supporting cast around him on offense will continue to develop and “The Burner” will continue to develop himself into a consistent fantasy producer. If he adds a receiving dimension to his game, then he’ll be that much more valuable.
TS…..TERRESTRIAL SWAG
11. Darren McFadden RB 6’1 ½” 215 Raiders
Amidst all the dysfunction in RaiderLand, Run-DMC has at least shown what separates him from much of the RB pack…AN ELITE BURST…He is undeniably a special talent but he does need improvement in several areas, amongst them his patience and durability. With a (reported) super work ethic and high football IQ, I have little doubt that McFadden improves upon these areas, rising quickly to stardom. Even when he does (in ’09), the doubters/haters will still doubt/hate……it’s just what they do…
12. Beanie Wells RB 5’11” 235 Cardinals
Beanie has a lot to prove, but couldn’t have landed in a more ideal situation in AZ, where he should get on the field immediately as the Cards’ feature RB. Combining great size, dynamite power (excellent stiff-arm), good feet with surprising burst and speed, the only question for me is his durability. In many respects, Wells somewhat reminds me of an ’08 draftee with a similar skill-set and body-type who also had durability concerns entering the league (currently ranked #5 on this list). In the final analysis, I expect Wells to be the top back out of the ’09 RB class.
13. Felix Jones RB 5’11” 210 Cowboys
From Oct. 2008: “I believe this guy is one of the most talented pure runners in the game with top-notch instincts, vision, and explosion. It may be hard to fathom, but I would not at all be surprised to see “The Cat” being the primary ballcarrier in Big “D” before the end of 2010”…Today (June 2009), I believe there is no doubt that Jones will be a stud in the NFL, with Top 10 fantasy potential. I can see Felix simply outclassing MB3 in ’09, the kid is that talented, and Dallas will not be able to keep him off the field for long.
14. DeAngelo Williams RB 5’9 ½” 215 Panthers
“DeA” rewarded his patient owners in 2008 with a phenomenal season, but looking back on how it all transpired seems a bit too flukish in my eyes. I’ve always really liked the kid’s talent, and he could end up exceeding this ranking for many years to come, however, I’m ranking his backfield mate well ahead of him as I believe that as talented as Williams is, Stewart is even better.
15. Ronnie Brown RB 6’0” 230 Dolphins
Brown has always been one of the most talented RBs in the game, and even though he is approaching 28 yrs of age, I believe his best 2-3 years are still ahead of him. IMO, this guy was one of the 4-5 “special” RBs in the league prior to his injury, and going into 2009 Brown will be almost 2 full years removed from his ACL injury. I expect a huge breakout in ’09 and a Top 5 season is within reach.
16. Knowshon Moreno RB 5’11” 218 Broncos
Moreno is a very good all-around RB in the mold of a (pre-injury) Cadillac Williams. Not quite as physically gifted as the elite RBs in the league, Moreno is a heck of a football player with tremendous running instincts that will serve him well as he transitions to the next level. In this era of multiple option backfields (MOBs), it appears that Moreno may be a guy who can get a ton of touches with the Broncos based on their urgency to draft this kid. If that’s indeed proven to be the case, this ranking may turn out to be too low.
17. Kevin Smith RB 6’1” 215 Lions
Smith is a very smooth, effective RB with a very nice all-around skill set. Ala Moreno, he is not quite as physically gifted as the elite RBs in the league. I believe he can enjoy a nice run as a quality starter in the NFL for a few years, but he gives me the same feeling that I had about Addai all along, that he’s nothing special and a guy whom the Lions may look to upgrade sooner rather than later. Enjoy the run while you can.
18. Marshawn Lynch RB 5’11” 225 Bills
In watching the Bills play, in particular Lynch, I see so much potential here but am often left wondering, what’s the holdup? With such a skilled RB, the Bills still seem to be underutilizing this guy’s talents. I see a guy with very good power, vision, good speed and nice lateral agility, who should be getting 1300+ yds and 50+ catches in his sleep. Expected to be used much more in the passing game this year, Lynch is a tough guy to project at this time and with his off-the-field issues continuing, I have to move him down in my rankings for ’09. I’m unsure if the Bills will even want to extend Lynch once his rookie deal expires.
19. Clinton Portis RB 5’11” 222 Redskins
I suspect many of you are thinking that he should be ranked significantly higher. Well, I see a few too many red flags concerning “Dr. Doo-wich Big” going forward to justify a higher ranking. Portis has logged a lot of carries (projected to be over 2,000 heading into the ’09 season) and incurred significant wear and tear along the way (various degrees in severity of knee, shoulder, hip, and ankle injuries). Sure, he has looked superb the past couple of seasons, but for me, just a bit too much mileage on the tires. Portis just may enjoy another stellar season in ’09. But beyond that, the wheels may go flat on this Mercedes-Benz very quickly……
20. Rashard Mendenhall RB 5’10” 225 Steelers
I still don’t understand why Tampa Bay passed on this guy for Talib. That being the case, the jury is certainly still out on Mendenhall. However, the kid showed some power in the limited times he was on display. Hopefully, the injury thing is not something that Mendenhall will be dealing with on a regular basis as I have a feeling that the Steelers will soon part ways with Parker for such a reason (unable to stay healthy). Thus, Mendenhall will have ample opportunity to showcase his much ballyhooed skill-set.
21. Brandon Jacobs RB 6’4” 260 Giants
This guy sure does play for the right team, as he is literally a Giant……”The Incredi-Bulk” is not much of a presence in the passing game, but with a whopping 5+ ypc and a destructive “shoulder-plow” once he sniffs the goal-line, Jacobs is such a serious force in the running game and a (potential) high-volume TD-threat that he still merits Top 20 consideration in spite of his lackluster receiving totals.
22. Pierre Thomas RB 5’10” 223 Saints
Thomas has earned the right to be the guy in the Saints backfield. He has worked hard to improve (added 10+ lbs of muscle this offseason) and has produced at a high level when given the opportunity. With the Saints not addressing their RB situation in the draft nor in free agency, and with Bush as his running-mate, Thomas could find himself getting even more opportunities if Bush suffers another injury.
23. Marion Barber III RB 5’10” 225 Cowboys
“The Barberian” is one of the best closers among NFL RBs. When the 4th quarter arrives, this guy keeps going like the Energizer Bunny, delivering wallops left and right to any defender in his path. At some point, this will take a toll on Barber, but for the immediate future (next 3-4 years), he should be able to continue in this role and produce at a pretty high level in fantasy. But the anticipated emergence of Felix Jones pushes “The Barberian” down several notches in my eyes.
24. Donald Brown RB 5’10” 210 Colts
The Colts apparently landed their guy in the draft, tabbing Brown in the 1st Rd when there were also plenty other pressing needs on their team. Obviously, this doesn’t bode well for Addai long-term and Brown should be able to work his way into a pretty even timeshare at some point during the ’09 season. I like Brown’s skill set, but am not overly excited about him. Given that he landed on such a fantasy-friendly team, his prospects become that much more appealing when, and if, he gets the full-time gig. Brown is certainly a “buy” where he is currently being drafted in dynasty startups.
25. Laurence Maroney RB 5’11” 220 Patriots
I’m not ready to give up on this guy as quickly as many have already. Only 24 years old, and with aging RBs all around him, I look for Maroney to bounce back in a big way relatively soon (’09 or ’10), whether it be in a Patriot uniform or not. He will probably never be a threat to catch 50 passes, but once he re-gains the trust of his coaching staff, he simply is the most talented RB on the roster and a guy who could produce Portis-like numbers, as we’ve seen from him over short stretches.
26. LeSean McCoy RB 5’10” 205 Eagles
“Shady” has landed in the ideal spot for his skill set. And with an aging, injury-riddled star RB still around, McCoy would be wise to learn all he can from watching Westbrook go about his business as he could do quite well by trying to emulate Westbrook since their styles (and statures) are similar. The additions up front along the o-line enhance this kid’s future potential. I wouldn’t bet the farm that McCoy ends up being as good as Westbrook, but even if he gets reasonably close that would still be darn good.
27. LaDanian Tomlinson RB 5’9 ½ ” 218 Chargers
Who said that “Age Ain’t Nothin’ But a Number!”? Well, with regards to RBs, age is almost everything. LT2 will certainly go down as one of the greatest RBs ever, but all things must come to a close at some point. In dynasty drafts, I’d rather miss out on a guy’s last significant year or two than to watch helplessly as the once proud, premier players run right off a cliff (potentially) and into oblivion shortly after you drafted them. The total carries/touches have mounted to a very high level for Tomlinson, and the signs of wear and tear are right there in front of us, I refuse to be in denial. Great, HOF career for my man, but I’ll steer clear for the last stand unless I get the biggest steal since what AIG got from the gov’t .
28. Joseph Addai RB 5’10” 215 Colts
I’ll be the first to state that I’ve never been a huge fan of this guy as far as pure RB talent. Given his fortune to be in such a high-octane offense that virtually guarantees a RB will produce good numbers, Addai may soon be faced with the real possibility of moving on to another team.
29. Michael Bush RB 6’1” 240 Raiders
Another in my line of future studs that I foresee blossoming sooner rather than later. In this era of the RBBC, guys who have the potential to score a significant number of TDs as well as rack up a nice line of total yards (receiving + rushing) will become valuable commodities. Bush is one of these guys. With excellent size, feet, and terrific hands to boot, the combo of D-Mac and Bush will stamp themselves as one of the top duos in the league in ’09 and beyond.
30. Jamaal Charles RB 5’11” 205 Chiefs
Charles will be the starter in K.C. by 2010 at the latest. Very talented ballcarrier with the explosiveness teams covet as well as soft hands to be able to stay on the field on 3rd down. There are some holes in his game that need to be addressed, such as needed bulk and pass protection, but I am banking that Charles “gets it” and works hard enough to maximize his enormous talents. At this point of the rankings, I stress upside more than a “safe” guy like Ryan Grant, for example, as those safer guys, IMO, are replaceable components on their respective NFL teams.