Now this might be the PERFECT buy low, sell high, and I'm falling hook-line-and-sinker for it.
Your Stewart/Foster argument is a textbook example of "What have you done for me lately?" thinking taken to the extreme.
We shall see. I happen to think Foster is the real deal and you are under-valuing him. I also think that it's pretty clear that (barring injury), Jonathan Stewart is going to have another up-and-down season. As such, I don't know why an owner that is trying to win would make the trade right now, as it clearly weakens their roster in the short-term, and there are no real guarantees that it improves their roster in the long-term.I mean, if Foster is a top-ten back this year...don't you think he will be next year? And 2012? He's on a young and improving team. If the Texans take that next step this year, as it looks like they just might be doing, Foster might very well have just played himself into a great situation for the next 5 years.
I would rather have Foster than Stewart in a redraft league.Long term, I see no reason to believe that Foster will have a better career. Pretty much every objective factor favors Stewart. Foster had a massive weekend. Stewart barely played. Yesterday was most likely the best game of Foster's career and one of the worst of Stewart's. I'm not going to let 1/16th of a season radically skew my perception of what these players are going to do for the next 3, 4, or 5 years. This is dynasty 101, folks. React to current developments, but don't lose perspective.
I mean, if Foster is a top-ten back this year...don't you think he will be next year? And 2012? He's on a young and improving team. If the Texans take that next step this year, as it looks like they just might be doing, Foster might very well have just played himself into a great situation for the next 5 years.
You're putting the cart well before the horse. Foster had a great game yesterday, but alas it was only ONE GAME. Here are some other good games:Jerome Harrison - 12/20/2009 - 34 carries, 286 yards, 3 TDsJulius Jones - 12/06/2004 - 30 carries, 198 yards, 3 TDsWilliam Green - 12/29/2002 - 27 carries, 178 yards, 2 TDsChris Brown - 10/11/2004 - 27 carries, 148 yards, 2 TDsRon Dayne - 12/24/2006 - 32 carries, 153 yards, 2 TDs Quentin Griffin - 12/21/2003 - 28 carries, 136 yardsKevin Jones - 12/05/2004 - 26 carries, 196 yards, 1 TDLadell Betts - 12/10/2006 - 33 carries, 171 yardsKevan Barlow - 12/21/2003 - 30 carries, 154 yardsCadillac Williams - 9/11/2005 - 27 carries, 148 yards, 1 TDSteve Slaton - 11/16/2008 - 14 carries, 156 yards There are a few important things to remember before you start spazzing out about a great game:- Even "bad" NFL RBs are usually pretty good. If they weren't, they wouldn't be on a pro roster.- If you give any NFL RB 25+ carries, there's a decent chance that he'll compile a lot of yards. - In a small sample size, variance plays a huge factor. 1-2 lucky breaks such as a great block from a teammate or a blown assignment/call from the defense can literally add 100 yards and 2 TDs to a player's game total. Because of all of these things, you can't just look at one single game or even a small sequence of games and draw meaningful conclusions about a player's future. Want some more proof?Lee Suggs had three straight 100+ yard rushing games at the end of the 2004 season. Cadillac Williams began the 2005 season with three straight 120+ yard rushing games. Julius Jones had back-to-back 150+ yard rushing games in his rookie year. Chris Brown opened the 2004 season with three straight 100+ yard rushing games at 5.4 YPC. In the final four games of the 2006 season, Ron Dayne compiled 429 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs. What team was Dayne playing for? The Houston Texans. Who was his coach? Gary Kubiak. PERSPECTIVE, PERSPECTIVE, PERSPECTIVEHere's a little more:- Arian Foster was so impressive at Tennessee that not a single NFL franchise opted to use a draft pick on him.- Arian Foster was so impressive in Texans training camp last year that they sent him to the practice squad, exposing him for any other team in the league to sign away. - The Texans had so much faith in Arian Foster as the future of their RB corps that they traded up to select Ben Tate in the 2nd round of the 2010 draft. And yet because Foster won the starting job in Tate's absence and shredded what looked like a pathetic Colts run D in one single game, I'm to believe that he's not only a top 10 RB this season, but also a top 10 RB in 2011, 2012, 2013, and so on?Gimme a break. I've been playing this hobby long enough to see my fair share of craptastic frauds fool people into thinking they're the next great thing. For every few Chris Browns and William Greens there is an Adrian Peterson or a Chris Johnson, but those guys are the exceptions and not the rule. Usually they have much stronger backgrounds than Foster, a middling physical talent who went undrafted, basically landed in the perfect place, and was lucky to have minimal legitimate competition for touches.Could Foster still have a good year? Sure. The stars have aligned for him. I think he's clearly the best back on the roster and it's unlikely that anything other than an injury will relegate him to the bench. He could be one of the keys to winning your league in 2010. Does any of this mean that he's a great dynasty back who has a hammer lock on the starting job and will yield several elite seasons in succession? Not at all. There's no indication that he's a great back worthy of entering the discussion with the likes of Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Steven Jackson. The odds would probably suggest that a career trajectory like Barlow/Betts/CBrown is a more realistic expectation. Rudi Johnson might be a good middle ground for his situation. Either way, a few good games don't mean anything. Every year I make several posts to this effect because every year people overreact to the flavor of the week flash in the pan. I've seen it happen so many times that I know it's going to happen every season.
not at all.
not at all. Some very bright people say this guy is not just a Ryan Grant or Mike Anderson.
The Ryan Grant comparison isn't bad. But Foster is a better, more complete running back than Grant in an offense that couldn't be more perfectly suited to his strengths. He's not an elite talent, but he's far more talented than the perception in this thread. I only count about 8-10 of that elite species, and only half of those backs are in ideal situations.
not at all. Some very bright people say this guy is not just a Ryan Grant or Mike Anderson.
That being said, you have him at RB #19 on your latest rankings- was that before or after yesterday's game? I brought this up before, but I think he deserves a higher ranking than #19 if you think he's locked in as the long term starter in that offense, no?
for the RB rankings especially.
Your Stewart/Foster argument is a textbook example of "What have you done for me lately?" thinking taken to the extreme.
Not even close. It may have originally been reported that way by some outlets hearing from Marshall's agent, but the guaranteed money isn't even close.
