And now for something completely different!
With the lockout looming, I've been strongly rethinking my rankings of some older players. My current rankings make perfect sense to me if there's no work stoppage next season... but if there is a lockout, guys like DeAngelo and Gore are ranked too high. I mean, by the time the 2009 season rolls around, those two backs will be 29. Michael Turner will be 30.
So, with that in mind, let's discuss the lockout. How likely do you guys think it is? Are any of you accounting for it in your rankings?
I think it's certainly at least 50/50, but I'm pretty much ignorant concerning this subject. I really don't have anything of value to add, but I would appreciate it if anyone could post links to websites that provide relevant information concerning the CBA and/or the lockout. I love that you brought this up btw.
I have been trying to get my dynasty league to plan for this because it looks almost certain to happen. But no one wants to even consider it.
One of the problems I see is that leagues use the previous year's fantasy results to determine rookie draft order. That's fine for determining 2011 draft order, but what about 2012? It doesn't seem right that the same team should draft #1 two years in a row. Meanwhile, the best teams will be aging and will not have a chance to cash in during lockout year. By the team 2012 rolls around their studs will be two years older and they will have had two consecutive years of not having good rookie picks to reload. I suggested the following: So if there is no 2011 to determine draft order for 2012, how do yo do it? You could:
a) Use 2011 draft order. This seems to give a huge advantage to teams that do badly this year; can you imagine two first round rookie picks consecutively? Meanwhile, the better teams have aged and they haven't had a chance to win with them in 2011.
b) Do a lottery for 2012. Risk here: someone who is perceived to have a great team gets #1 pick.
c) Have each owner rank all teams (excluding their own) from 1-11, with 1 being best. Each team is then tallied with the votes of all owners. The team with the most ranking points picks first, and so on. Risk: someone could deliberately rank someone higher just because they don't like them or because they are in their conference. Personally, I wouldn't worry about this. Good: the draft is supposed to help out bad teams and this would do just that, at least based on the perception of the majority of the league.
d) Use a reputable website's dynasty ranking (rotoworld or footballguys?) to assign a value for each player on each team based on player rankings. Team with the highest number (their players are ranked the lowest) drafts first, and so on. Advantage: no bias. Rankings like these tend to reflect the general value of players. Negative: none that I can see. This should determine a draft order based as much as possible on perceived strength of teams, which is the goal of the draft.
e) Weighted lottery like the NBA, using 2010 results as a baseline for 2012, but adjusted so every team has a weighted chance for the higher slots. Example, the 12th team has a 50% chance of getting #1 in 2012; the 11th team 25%, and so on. Not sure how you would come up with the weighting system, but the idea is to give the teams that were worst in 2010 a slightly higher chance of getting a better pick, but the the better teams still have some chance. Problem: complicated; how do you program the selecting? Advantage: gives everyone a chance to get a good pick but gives the teams that were worst in 2010 a better chance.
Personally, I like c or d. I think either one would give us as fair a determination of the worst and best teams as possible.