How did Foster go undrafted in the NFL draft in 2009 ?
Because the Texans system is more responsible for his numbers than he is.
Does anyone really think his numbers would be even close to what they are if he played for the Rams, Steelers, Bills, Bucs, etc.?
No, I don't.Then again, I'm not convinced Rashard Mendenhall, Beanie Wells, Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, or Jahvid Best would have done nearly as well in Arian Foster's place on the Texans offense. This isn't as simple as the offensive system making the player. System backs quite simply do not look this good and do not impress to the extent that he has. They put up numbers but don't look electric or elite while doing it. Arian Foster not only has the numbers of an elite player, but he suddenly LOOKS like an elite player. Is he? Probably not, but as I said in a different thread about him, you don't have to be an elite player to play and perform like one. This system was practically built for the exact skillset that Foster possesses. Everything I have seen from him tells me he has elite vision, cutback ability, and short range burst. What he lacks in other areas (wiggle, pile moving ability, top line speed) he MORE than makes up with those 3 things. If Gary Kubiak were to design the ideal running back to handle their system, he would draw up a player that has elite vision, cutback ability, and short range burst. Sound familiar?
Essentially I think we have the potential for a perfect storm here- a system that perfectly fits the exact skillset of a player, such that it enhances his play to greater heights and makes him play and perform better than other potentially more "talented" players. It happened with Priest Holmes. Who's to say it can't be happneing all over again with Arian Foster?
I maintain the smart move (maybe a better way to phrase it would be the safe move?) is to move him if you can get a bonafide, legit top 5 talent. He still has some concern and doesn't have near the track record to be able to feel comfortable about his future yet. However, I no longer think it is ludicrous to think that Foster can maintain what he is doing now for the forseeable future (meaning into next season and beyond). Too many people are becoming WAY too quick to push Foster to the side as a simple product of his situation. This is a clear indication to me that these people have not actually watched him play and have not seen the way he is piling up the gaudy numbers. As I said in the other Foster thread, once upon a time you could have switched Foster's name with Priest Holme's name and had this EXACT same debate and discussion. We all know how well that turned out for everyone saying Holmes was a fraud... Granted, he is a long, long way off from getting to that point. However, it's not as unfathomable as some in this thread seem to think it is.
Is it possible for him to be the long term answer in Houston, of course. Your right, the same things were said about Holmes, and i still think it is true. Had LJ been the RB during Priests glory days, i believe his numbers would have been at least as good.
I think comparing Fosters situation to that is fair, but i thnk a better comparison might be Slaton for obvious reasons. You say Fosters abilities are perfect for the Texans system, well people were saying the same thing about Slaton. The fact of the matter is just about any RB's skill set would be perfect for the Texans system.
Im not suggesting someone should trade Foster now before he implodes, he should be a top 5 Rb for the rest of the season. However, considering what you could get for him now, it would make sense to see what he might fetch in a trade. Ofc ourse it depends on things like the current status of your team. Any team that is not a playoff contender could easily get a top tier player, plus a small handfull of prospects and/or picks.
I would trade him for Sidney Rice, Marshawn Lynch and a first 2011 pick, or something similar(again, if i wasnt a playoff contender).
There are a couple other little things that bother me about Foster. Will Foster continure to get 70-80% of the RB touches? I know it was against the Raiders, but the other two RB's looked pretty good. Why beat up your #1 back if you dont have to? The other thing is his suspension yesterday. On a team that seems to be able to just plug in any RB, how patient will the Texans be with him. I dont know alot about his personal life, but skipping meetings isnt a good sign.
Barring injury, fumbles, meeting skipping, etc. Foster will certainly finish as a top 5 RB this year, but when it comes to dynasty leagues, i feel better with a player(s) i know will produce no matter his situation.
I do not dispute most of this, except the bolded parts. First, Slaton 2008 is NOTHING like Foster 2010. In terms of production, they are somewhat comparable (although even there Foster is blowing him away). This has everything to do with the way they look when producing the stats. Slaton 2008 looked like a GOOD running back in this offense. Foster looks like an ELITE running back in this offense. There is a very large difference between the two. I don't actually believe he is a legit, elite stud and this is where the offense is inflating him. However, I do believe he is a good player who could perform on other teams, which is not something I ever thought Slaton 2008 was capable of. Average running backs in great situations become good players and never pass the eye test. Good running backs in great situations become elite players and do pass the eye test. The former is Slaton 2008, the latter is Foster 2010. As I said, I would move Foster if I could get a bonafide top 5 talent that lacks the risk and uncertainty that Foster carries with him. However, the list of players I would be willing to move him for has shrunk drastically from 4 weeks ago (hell, it shrunk drastically from even a week ago). I tend to prefer the side of deals that returns me the the best player in the deal, and in your above trade example, Foster would be the best player in the deal (unless you knew the 1st round pick would be top 3). Maybe this could turn into a useful discussion. The following are the only players I would instantly, without a doubt trade him for:
QB- Aaron Rodgers
RB- Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
WR- Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson
That is where my list of must-trade players ends. A list that comprises a whopping 7 players. To me, those 7 players are the only mortal locks to produce this year, next year, and the year after at the ultra elite, cream of the crop levels you expect of tier 1 players. After that, there are a slew of guys that you certainly could make a case are much better and/or safer than Foster, but are absolutely no guarantee and an equal case could be made that Foster is the better option (at least in my opinion):
QB- Drew Brees, Peyton Manning
RB- Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart, Rashard Mendenhall, Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, Jahvid Best
WR- Miles Austin, Roddy White, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, Vincent Jackson, Dez Bryant
That is another 15 players in the "maybe" catagory. Out of these 15, there are a handful of players I would probably trade him for (Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Jonathan Stewart, Miles Austin), but most I would not. That leaves us with 7 players I would for sure trade him for, with another 3-4 I would probably trade him for. This puts him in some pretty elite company.
Outside of those 7 + 3-4, everyone has just as many question marks and concerns as Foster does (and truthfully, Frank Gore and Jonathan Stewart have just as many concerns and questions as well). Not only that, Foster is a good bet to outproduce every player from the 2nd list this season (plus some from the 1st list as well) and has a higher ceiling than many of them, given that offense and the talent he is flashing through 4 weeks (although he notably has a much lower floor than many of them).