Interesting to see some of the bigger proponents of pedigree jumping on the Foster bandwagon as a long term solution. Not that the UDFA is a problem, just that they're writing off Tate as a non-factor. I'm not sure that the Texans will be willing to throw away a 2nd rounder as quickly.
Here's my take...
Foster's got skills. He has talent, but as has been said, its not transcendent, so a lot of his current value is boosted by his current situation, while his future value is limited by the same. He is Pierre Thomas, though maybe a bit more talented. That lack of transcendent talent, though, is the problem, in that there's a highly drafted RB sitting on IR ready to take some work next year.
The bottom line is that there's little downside to selling by the end of 2010, and lots of downside to keeping him. Does anyone believe that he's got the talent to **become** a top 4 RB? I doubt it. So, ride the lightning through 2010, and move him after, even if it seems like a lateral move by the rankings. Get Mendenhall. Get Stewart, Mathews, or Best. The floor for that crew seems quite a bit higher than the worst case for Foster, while Foster's ceiling isn't much higher ( if at all ).
My first targets for Foster would be to try and add pieces to get to a top 4 runner, but if that fell through then I'd be more than happy to take Mendenhall for him. I'd be even happier to take McCoy or Beanie and get something else. Its worth it just to eliminate the risks.
In full disclosure, on the one team where I owned Foster, I sold him after week 1 for Jon Stewart. I think that move was less than optimal, but only the timing, not the pieces. As foster has continued his pace, I likely could have gotten the same deal in the offseason while enjoying Foster's production this year. However, it was worth the move to me as I have more confidence in Stewart long term, so I'm sleeping a little better at night. I've seen how quickly these RB5-10 guys can become RB25 guys.
Early 2011 will be very interesting. Per rotoworld, Foster is a RFA next year, so watching the Texans decisions on how much to pay the man is going to say a lot about whether he's a special back, or just a guy in a special scheme.