Any thoughts on how Finley's injury affects his dynasty value, if at all?
Semi-related, how do you guys tend to value an elite TE relative to other players (in a standard scoring system)? One of my teams has an offer on the table that would give me Finley. I'm trying to figure out how much it's worth to get him now given he may not contribute this year. I have traded a lot to get elite RBs and WRs in the past, just haven't done it for a TE before.
Is he a guy you guys would overpay to get at this point?
First off, some background. I'm a big-time fan of stud TEs in all formats. I played in 7 leagues this year, and my TEs in those leagues are Clark x2, Finley x2, Gates x2, Keller x3, Witten x1, and Hernandez x1. I've argued in favor of the stud TE every year since I first joined, and I always put my money where my mouth is. Back in May 2006,
I said I'd take Antonio Gates #5 overall in a startup dynasty draft... and the craziest part is, with the benefit of hindsight, it would have even been a great move (the players FBGs had ranked in the 5-10 range at that time were Ronnie Brown, Steven Jackson, Reggie Bush, Lamont Jordan, and Rudi Johnson- I think it's safe to say that Gates has handily outperformed all of those guys except for Jackson by a HUGE margin, while Gates vs. SJax has been pretty much a wash in terms of VBD-to-date since then- 312 VBD for SJax, 300 for Gates). I also think that TE's have been my biggest position of strength in the past in terms of predicting future performance and identifying breakout stars before they're chic picks (I had Dustin Keller as my #4 dynasty TE going into last year, had labeled Finley as an immediate buy before he blew up at the end of last season, and have been vocal in my support of both Owen Daniels and Vernon Davis against heavy criticism). Now, that might all just be dumb luck and statistical noise, but the end result is that I love TEs, and I think I'm very good at figuring out which TEs to target.With that said, right now's a weird time for TEs. When I declared Gates a top-5 dynasty pick, he was 25 years old (about to turn 26) and coming off back-to-back first team AP All Pro seasons. He was both young and proven. Today, all of the TEs are either young (Finley, Hernandez, Keller, Davis), or they're proven (Gates, Clark). The only guys who are both young and proven aren't difference makers- they're your Wittens and Winslows (and even they aren't
that young- Witten is 28 and Winslow is 27). The result is that there is no 2006 Antonio Gates out there- nobody who I'd sell the farm to acquire. Jermichael Finley looked really nice, and there's a solid chance that he becomes a cheap facsimile of 2006 Antonio Gates (for all the Finley hype, I think it's going to be a while before we see anyone as good as Gates at the TE position). I like him, and I'd be looking to acquire him from panicking owners, but I'm not going to be trading a core stud at another position to get him. A rock solid WR2? Yeah, I'll make that trade- a Colston for Finley or a Harvin for Finley. But no Vjax-for-Finley or Dez-for-Finley deals.
The nicest thing about owning a stud TE, though, is the long-term security. Few guys are as consistently good from year to year as the true difference-maker TEs. Tony Gonzalez's season-ending VBD rank was 36th or better in 9 out of the 10 seasons from 1999-2008, meaning if you'd drafted him with the first pick of the 4th round in each season (pick #37), he would have outperformed his draft spot 90% of the time. The one time he didn't meet the cutoff, he finished 45th in season-ending VBD (meaning worth a mid-4th, but not quite worth an early 4th). And Gonzo had explosive upside beyond that- he finished 13th or better in season-ending VBD in 5 of those 10 seasons. That's an entire decade of being undervalued. With other players like Tiki Barber, after they're undervalued for a couple of seasons the public catches on and starts drafting them higher, but Gonzo managed to get underestimated for an entire decade. Gates is, if anything, even more underrated- he's finished
20th or better in season-ending VBD in 5 of the past 6 seasons, and is obviously on pace to make it 6 of 7. Included in that total is two top-10 finishes, and so far this year he's standing 2nd in VBD. Most people have no clue what a devastating advantage it is if you can get an Antonio Gates or a Tony Gonzalez at the beginning of their career. As a Finley owner in a dynasty league, I desperately hope that Finley can live up to the hype and merit mention in the same breath as those two luminaries, because a 24-year old TE of that caliber is probably the most valuable dynasty asset short of a true, honest-to-goodness HoF-caliber RB like Tomlinson or Faulk. He won't single-handedly win you any seasons (although Gates has come awfully close in the past, and is doing his best to make a liar of me this season), but just possessing that steady and sizeable advantage for an entire decade adds up to so much value over that span.
Sorry for meandering all around the topic. I tend to ramble once I've gotten a couple drinks in me.
), but Tony Romo has averaged 21.67 ppg over the last 3 seasons, which is more than Peyton Manning (20.58) and way above Philip Rivers (19.02). The guy averages 8.1 yards per attempt for his career. He's on pace for 5400 passing yards this year. I really don't get the Romo hate. He's not as talented as Philip Rivers, but he's also not as talented as Brady and nobody seems to have a problem with people ranking Romo over Brady. Aaron Rodgers is almost always ranked ahead of at least 4 QBs that are more talented than he is. Tony Romo is a legit franchise QB who, by the way, posts elite fantasy stats year in and year out, and who might just have the sickest weapons at his disposal of any player in the entire league. Most underrated fantasy QB in the league.
), but Tony Romo has averaged 21.67 ppg over the last 3 seasons, which is more than Peyton Manning (20.58) and way above Philip Rivers (19.02). The guy averages 8.1 yards per attempt for his career. He's on pace for 5400 passing yards this year. I really don't get the Romo hate. He's not as talented as Philip Rivers, but he's also not as talented as Brady and nobody seems to have a problem with people ranking Romo over Brady. Aaron Rodgers is almost always ranked ahead of at least 4 QBs that are more talented than he is. Tony Romo is a legit franchise QB who, by the way, posts elite fantasy stats year in and year out, and who might just have the sickest weapons at his disposal of any player in the entire league. Most underrated fantasy QB in the league.
. Rivers' weapons might be comparable to Romo's at the moment (I'd still take Romo's, but I don't think the gap is nearly as large as most people suggest), but Austin/Dez/Witten will likely age a lot better than Gates/Floyd/Naanee.
. Rivers' weapons might be comparable to Romo's at the moment (I'd still take Romo's, but I don't think the gap is nearly as large as most people suggest), but Austin/Dez/Witten will likely age a lot better than Gates/Floyd/Naanee.
No love for Fred Jackson? Dude had 1400 yards from scrimmage last year. Dude has 4.6 career ypc despite playing all of his days on that mess of a franchise. I could probably name 10 teams that don't have a single back as good as Fred Jackson without even getting too controversial.
Just to add: Zach Miller. Extremely underrated. He's always passed the eye test IMO, and I think it was you said that MIller's first 2 seasons ranked top 7 all time for Tight Ends; and that's with the crap Oakland has been trotting out there at QB.. (Grape Kool-Aid). In my PPR leagues, he's the #2 ranked TE this year.
