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have you ever been confidant starting hester so far in his career?

Nope...but what does that have to do with the conversation? He's a WR3/4 with upside....just like a lot of the more highly touted young WR's that you and others favor over him...some with LOWER immediate production.

Nobody is claiming Hester as a fantasy 1 or 2. Nobody is claiming him to be a rock solid dependable fantasy #3. The claim here is that he is being written off completely by a lot of people while performing as an OK fantasy depth piece AND still has room to grow into more.

I don't know about you, but I love guys in my WR3/4 spot that A: Produce as a WR3/4 while B: Have a ton of room to grow.

Even if you disagree with B (and one could make that argument), he is still far from "worthless", because he can produce as a bye week replacement at the worst right now.

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Brewtown, the other day I posted that you were the worst thing to happen to draft discussion here in a long time--within hours it had 7-8 likes. That should tell you something.

I've been a part of this thread almost from the beginning. I've learned a lot. I've made some friends. But...let's please keep the personal attacks to a minimum. It isn't fun. Tell me what you think

Good. It's settled then. I'll continue to disregard your "analysis" and you can ignore mine. I don't think anyone in this thread will miss these exchanges.

have you ever been confidant starting hester so far in his career?

Nope...but what does that have to do with the conversation? He's a WR3/4 with upside....just like a lot of the more highly touted young WR's that you and others favor over him...some with LOWER immediate production.

Nobody is claiming Hester as a fantasy 1 or 2. Nobody is claiming him to be a rock solid dependable fantasy #3. The claim here is that he is being written off completely by a lot of people while performing as an OK fantasy depth piece AND still has room to grow into more.

I don't know about you, but I love guys in my WR3/4 spot that A: Produce as a WR3/4 while B: Have a ton of room to grow.

Even if you disagree with B (and one could make that argument), he is still far from "worthless", because he can produce as a bye week replacement at the worst right now.

People are ignoring that Hester was very solid last year until he got hurt. He had a lot of 6, 7, 8 reception games. He was very startable back then. That is what SSOG got excited about, pretty justifiably. However since then Knox got better, Aromashodu broke out (and then regressed, and now is back again), and Bennett has been consistently ok (like an Avant type).

It is even more wrong to ignore what is happening this year. His time on offense is decreasing. He's no longer "produc(ing) as a WR3/4". He's droppable in redraft leagues, and you have to be a pretty hardcore believer to think that he's going to get a 2nd chance at continuing the experiment. He's a soon to be 28 yo developmental WR who won't get many reps on offense for the foreseeable future.

I think his time as an NFL starting WR is done. His ranking needs to plummet in everything but return yardage leagues. His value in std leagues is now very similar to Josh Cribbs. Cribbs has very similar receiving stats on the year.

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Just because you haven't felt confident starting Hester does not mean that everyone else hasn't felt confident starting Hester.

Somehow, I seriously doubt everyone else but moderated has felt confident starting Hester 12 of the last 17 weeks.
I never said that. I said that it does not mean that everyone else hasn't felt confident starting Hester. In order for that to be a true statement, you don't need to prove that everyone else *DID* feel confident starting Hester, you just need to demonstrate that a single person did feel confident starting Hester (which I have already demonstrated with David Dodds' weekly cheatsheets, which means that my statement was a true statement).

I didn't say 2008 should be considered his third year. I said if you give him a pass on 2006 and 2007, this (2010) would be his third year. Hope that helps.

Also, stop with the prorating. His numbers are his numbers, and he played 13 games, not 12. He hasn't yet come close to posting 1000 yards in a season. Your man love for this guy is over the top.

Also, I noticed you did not address the bolded above. Those are really the critical issues here.

SSOG: You are the guy who brought up the discussion of urgency earlier in this thread, right? How do you feel that concept applies to Hester?

You're right on the first point. Reading fail on my part.

I will not stop pro-rating. I remain steadfastly convinced that pro-rated numbers give a truer measure of a player's production level than his aggregate numbers. That is a point I remain 100% convinced is "good process" and will not budge on. Provided you have a large enough sample size (i.e. you aren't pro-rating based off of 2 games), this seems self-evident to me. I think Chase's "points per quarter" is the ultimate measure of statistical performance, and if I had a means of easily reproducing it, I would use that 100% of the time. I don't think it's perfect (I do agree that aggregate performance matters to some degree- 5 points per quarter over 64 quarters is more impressive than the same figure over 44 quarters), but I think it's a far sight above what is used most of the time.

I would hardly classify my feelings for Hester as "man-love". I've got him 36th in my rankings, down in tier 7. If that's man-love, then I need to be locked up for stalking Dwayne Bowe, who I've got 33rd. I just refuse to close the book on him as definitively as everyone else seems to be willing to do. If I talk about him a lot, it's because others bring him up a lot, which hardly represents any fault of my own or any commentary on my own feelings.

In response to your bolded, I don't know how long Hester will take to develop. I also have no idea how long Britt, Sims-Walker, or Knox (to name 3 of the 4 guys ranked closest to Hester) will continue to develop. At that point, I'm not ranking based on immediacy of a player's contributions to my squad, I'm ranking based on long-term value. Urgency matters, but it's a very minor concept best used when deciding between fringe prospects or guys in virtual ties, and I'm not even convinced that Hester is a "low-urgency" player based on his level of play last season.

And how many times would Dodds have regretted it after the fact? How many times would Hester have justified that ranking? :excited:

Give me a working definition of "justifying the ranking" and I'll gladly provide you the figures. If he's ranked 11th and he finishes 13th, did he justify his ranking? 18th? 24th? What if he's ranked 36th and he finishes 37th?

Time permitting, I'll also make an effort to figure out how frequently comparably ranked players "justified their ranking" to provide some context (which, in my opinion, is far more important than Hester's raw success rate).

If youre stalking Bowe by having him at 33, then what i am doing by having him at 21, naked cuddling? :) Edited by Go deep
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Peter King (obviously not a fantasy guru) had Josh Freeman in his top 5 on the MVP list so far this season. If one believes in Freeman, it's probably too late to get him cheap?I own him and I don't think I believe.

If TB would have gone (3-1) * 4 = 12 - 4, then he should be the MVP. They definitely won't. I believe in him as a good enough NFL QB. I think that makes him at least a QB2 going forward. But I question if he's an elite talent who has any chance to ascend much further than say top 12. There's few teams/situations where I'd be looking to buy. He doesn't have a ton of value except for depth. He's pretty similar to Chad Henne as far as talent/situation IMO.
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because he can produce as a bye week replacement at the worst right now.

I could not disagree more with this statement, other than possibly leagues that include points for return yardage. He has 13/152/1 in 6 games this year. That is not "bye week replacement at the worst." There are guys on the waiver wire in most leagues who are better bye week replacements right now. He is WR70 for this season to date, and even lower in ppg.

I really don't even know how you can make that statement. It's one thing if you think he's going to turn it around for some reason, despite all evidence to the contrary, but that's a different statement than the one quoted here.

Edited by Just Win Baby
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Also regarding hester, how many times before a given week has he been looked at as a good fantasy start?

Pretty much never unless a team is desperate for a bye week filler.

Even after the fact how many games of 60+ receiving yards does he have? We know he's not a good redzone guy so his td's won't ever be high. Unless he can become a guy who can put up big yards he's worthless going into a given week and since he is a horrible route runner who has zero awareness when running routes where he needs depth awareness i don't think he really even has future upside in FF.

:confused:

IMO Hester has been overrated by SSOG and a few others around here for quite some time.

:goodposting:

How can anyone put Hester anywhere close to Britt in Dynasty value?

It's not just that Hester is one of the handful of least productive starting WRs in the league, he's also having his offensive role reduced once again so he can concentrate on punt returns.

He's played 5 games this year and cleared 20 receiving yards once. I don't know if I can find a WR with less value. He played 19 of the Bears' 64 offensive snaps last week (compared to 38 for Earl Bennett), and he admits that the plan is for him to sit more often. I'm not sure I'd even waste a roster spot on him even in 25-man Dynasty.

Hester stinks. When I read SSOG's unflinching love for him it makes me very scared that I have based other moves on SSOG's opinions. :hophead: lol
I'd like you to point out the one person where you agree with every single thing he thinks.
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because he can produce as a bye week replacement at the worst right now.

I could not disagree more with this statement, other than possibly leagues that include points for return yardage. He has 13/152/1 in 6 games this year. That is not "bye week replacement at the worst." There are guys on the waiver wire in most leagues who are better bye week replacements right now. He is WR70 for this season to date, and even lower in ppg.

I really don't even know how you can make that statement. It's one thing if you think he's going to turn it around for some reason, despite all evidence to the contrary, but that's a different statement than the one quoted here.

Hester is a kick returner who the Bears tried to covert to a WR out of desperation at the WR position. Even though they still dont have a real #1, i believe they realized Hester is not the answer. Hester is not a guy trending upwards, he is a guy that "peaked" last year with below average numbers.

He is almost worthless in any non return yardage league at this point. Even having him in the same tier as guys like Bowe and Britt is just plain wrong.

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Hester stinks. When I read SSOG's unflinching love for him it makes me very scared that I have based other moves on SSOG's opinions. :( lol

I'd like you to point out the one person where you agree with every single thing he thinks.
I think a more important question is what does this say about SSOG's theory about returners being good upside projects at WR. He also is very high on Breaston and Brandon Tate for this reason. It's only one game post-Moss but finger in the air says Brandon Tate is not going to useful anytime soon. Breaston has had good games this year and in the past, but I still question how good he is and think he's benefiting a lot from situation (WR3 with Warner at QB and 2 studs previous years; WR2 beside an injured Fitz this year).Obviously a lot of return superstars from Dante Hall to Hester and Cribbs fail at making the conversion. Obviously skill at the return game only applies to a small subset of what it takes to be a successful receiver, and if you can't run routes and develop timing, you're not going to get very far.
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Also regarding hester, how many times before a given week has he been looked at as a good fantasy start?

Pretty much never unless a team is desperate for a bye week filler.

Even after the fact how many games of 60+ receiving yards does he have? We know he's not a good redzone guy so his td's won't ever be high. Unless he can become a guy who can put up big yards he's worthless going into a given week and since he is a horrible route runner who has zero awareness when running routes where he needs depth awareness i don't think he really even has future upside in FF.

:(

IMO Hester has been overrated by SSOG and a few others around here for quite some time.

:lmao:

How can anyone put Hester anywhere close to Britt in Dynasty value?

It's not just that Hester is one of the handful of least productive starting WRs in the league, he's also having his offensive role reduced once again so he can concentrate on punt returns.

He's played 5 games this year and cleared 20 receiving yards once. I don't know if I can find a WR with less value. He played 19 of the Bears' 64 offensive snaps last week (compared to 38 for Earl Bennett), and he admits that the plan is for him to sit more often. I'm not sure I'd even waste a roster spot on him even in 25-man Dynasty.

Hester stinks. When I read SSOG's unflinching love for him it makes me very scared that I have based other moves on SSOG's opinions. :lmao: lol
I'd like you to point out the one person where you agree with every single thing he thinks.
I was teasing as the hop head was supposed to indicate. (never been a Hester fan, even when he was doing ok)
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Hester stinks. When I read SSOG's unflinching love for him it makes me very scared that I have based other moves on SSOG's opinions. :thumbup: lol

I'd like you to point out the one person where you agree with every single thing he thinks.
I think a more important question is what does this say about SSOG's theory about returners being good upside projects at WR. He also is very high on Breaston and Brandon Tate for this reason. It's only one game post-Moss but finger in the air says Brandon Tate is not going to useful anytime soon. Breaston has had good games this year and in the past, but I still question how good he is and think he's benefiting a lot from situation (WR3 with Warner at QB and 2 studs previous years; WR2 beside an injured Fitz this year).Obviously a lot of return superstars from Dante Hall to Hester and Cribbs fail at making the conversion. Obviously skill at the return game only applies to a small subset of what it takes to be a successful receiver, and if you can't run routes and develop timing, you're not going to get very far.
I enjoy SSOG and he knows a heck of a lot, but, this is one claim that I have doubted myself. I am sure that there are some players with crossover skills like Harvin or Steve Smith south, but when I think returners I think Hall and now Hester, Cribbs, I also remember Billy White Shoes Johnson and Desmond Howard. I even think Ginn. Moss, TO, Rice, Carter, none of those guys were primarily returners. Edited by az_prof
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Hester stinks. When I read SSOG's unflinching love for him it makes me very scared that I have based other moves on SSOG's opinions. :doh: lol

I'd like you to point out the one person where you agree with every single thing he thinks.
I think a more important question is what does this say about SSOG's theory about returners being good upside projects at WR. He also is very high on Breaston and Brandon Tate for this reason. It's only one game post-Moss but finger in the air says Brandon Tate is not going to useful anytime soon. Breaston has had good games this year and in the past, but I still question how good he is and think he's benefiting a lot from situation (WR3 with Warner at QB and 2 studs previous years; WR2 beside an injured Fitz this year).Obviously a lot of return superstars from Dante Hall to Hester and Cribbs fail at making the conversion. Obviously skill at the return game only applies to a small subset of what it takes to be a successful receiver, and if you can't run routes and develop timing, you're not going to get very far.
I enjoy SSOG and he knows a heck of a lot, but, this is one claim that I have doubted myself. I am sure that there are some players with crossover skills like Harvin or Steve Smith south, but when I think returners I think Hall and now Hester, Cribbs, I also remember Billy White Shoes Johnson and Desmond Howard. I even think Ginn. Moss, TO, Rice, Carter, none of those guys were primarily returners.
Breaston put up some solid numbers this year before he got injured despite the horrific QB play. I'm not sure he's a good example to bag on. Plus wasn't he a pretty well regarded receiver in college? I honestly can't remember.
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Breaston put up some solid numbers this year before he got injured despite the horrific QB play. I'm not sure he's a good example to bag on. Plus wasn't he a pretty well regarded receiver in college? I honestly can't remember.

Not really bagging on him, just questioning whether he really projects as being a great dynasty player. If you want his near term production you can get Driver, Branch, or any number of guys for next to nothing. Does he deserve to be valued highly like a 27 yo WR with upside, or is he the product of his situation that could fall off the map if the situation changes? If the #1 CB is on a hobbled Fitz, and a tunnel vision QB looks your way instead, that might be more situation than talent. Breaston was a great returner in college. Held all time Big Ten return yards records when he graduated. But he was overshadowed by every other receiver they had when he was there - Edwards, Manningham, Avant. Edited by thriftyrocker
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SSOG: I know this was mentioned as a possible evolution of your site awhile back, but I would be very interested in seeing where you (or others for that matter) slot in draft picks among your rankings (and how that might change as the season goes on and projections of teams' draft positions get more certain).

It's in the works. Rather than just arbitrarily assigning a score, I'm trying to go through historical data to get some sort of value baselines. We're still probably several weeks away, and it might get pushed back to the offseason if it comes to that (although I'd really like to get it done by midseason if possible because that's the ideal time to start targeting draft picks, imo). The ultimate goal is once we have our cross-positional values up and running to be able to create a "draft pick" position, too, and fit that into the cross-positional values. In the meantime, priority #1 is my real job, priority #2 is the rankings, and priority #3 is whatever else I can fit in between priorities #1 and #2. Oh, and my wife likes it when I spend time with her from time to time, too. :lmao:

Schaub's an interesting guy IMO. I haven't seen every game he's played but when I have seen him I've liked what I've seen. However, I agree that he's in tier 3. I don't have Orton quite that high on pure talent but he's done pretty well. The disagreement I have with you here, if we're talking about pure talent is Bradford and to a lesser degree Freeman. On a pure talent level, Bradford is every bit as talented as Rivers or Ben. Freeman pretty close to McNabb. Both clearly need more seasoning to be ranked that high as far as true value, but you're talking pure talent. I might also bump Flacco up a tier but that's not a strong disagreement.

I think what you're calling "talent" is what I would call "potential". I consider things like the ability to read and accurately diagnose defenses, make pre-snap reads, go through progressions, etc. all part of "talent". Right now, Bradford can't do that. In a few years, absolutely, I'll be surprised if he hasn't developed those skills in spades (although Ryan and Flacco haven't developed as much as I expected, so I'm only cautiously optimistic instead of full-on expectant). In terms of talent today, though? Nah, Bradford's average at the very best. Average is way, way ahead of the curve for a rookie, but it doesn't change the fact that Bradford's not as good of a QB as the guys in the tiers ahead of him at this point. Hell, he's the worst QB I listed in tier 4, to boot.

Likewise, that's part of the reason why I have Orton so high. I've been really impressed by his ability to always make the right decision with the football on any given play. His ability to find the open man at this point is behind only Brady, Brees, and Manning. It might be an illusion or a mirage, but it's damn impressive nevertheless.

ETA Looking over SSOG's WR rankings, it looks like he has come around on Nicks, although he does seem to be too high on 85. He has Chad 21 points ahead of Mike Williams. Thats a huge gap on the 1-100 scale. I dont know about anyone else, but i wouldnt even consider trading Mike Williams for Ocho.

Another ranking i dont agree with is Hester ahead of Kenny Britt. I know Britt is a bit of a head case, but he is leaps and bounds more talented than Hester(at WR), not to mention 6 years younger.

Value scores aren't really designed to compare guys two tiers away. They're mostly meant to compare guys within a tier to each other, and to establish how large the gap between the tiers are. It's a limited tool, but it's what I have to work with at the moment. We're working on a much more robust, comparable scoring system that will not only give proper value comparisons within the position (e.g. you'll be able to add value scores and say something like "WR4 = WR8 + WR16"), but will be comparable across positions.

As for Hester and Britt... it's a 2-point difference, so they're close. And Britt is obviously trending upwards. At the moment, though, Britt is still the guy who couldn't take the job from Nate Washington in the preseason, and Hester is still the guy that opposing defenses think is talented enough to warrant their top coverages.

With his TD catch tonight, Britt has scored more points in the last 4.1 quarters than Hester has scored all season.

Will Britt be "trending upwards" ahead of Hester in your rankings this week?

My rankings already took the trend in account, i had Britt ahead of Hester since the begining of the season. :confused:

Edited by Go deep
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So where does a guy like current shark pool Danario Alexander slot into the rankings? A unique player/situation...insane measurables/college production vs serious injury concerns...Obviously he was a hell of a specimen before the injury...knee is still a concern but he looked great in his debut game, was given a 4 year contract (indicating the rams have faith in his recovery/abilities). having real trouble knowing how to value the guy

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How much of Alexander's production is the result of Sam Bradford's quality and St. Louis's desperation? I'd say a lot.

This team has absolutely nothing at WR. Avery and Clayton are injured. Gibson and Robinson are mediocrities. Amendola is lucky to be on a pro roster. Gilyard has potential, but he wasn't an elite prospect and he's still just a rookie.

You look at the situation and quickly realize that the reason a guy like Alexander has been able to crack the lineup is because the team simply has no other options. Even the worst WR who's good enough to make an NFL roster probably has enough talent to piece together some decent games when he's being heavily targeted by a clue chip QB who looks like he might be a future Pro Bowl stalwart. The fact that Alexander has stepped in and made a few catches really doesn't tell us much about his long term future.

I don't expect St. Louis to stand pat at WR in the offseason. Having made the commitment to build the team around Bradford, I would expect them to surround him with a full complement of viable weapons like the Jets, Giants, Steelers, Lions, Buccaneers, 49ers, Cowboys, Packers, Ravens, and Dolphins have tried to do for their young QBs. Is Alexander good enough to withstand a challenge from the likes of AJ Green or Vincent Jackson? Probably not. He's probably just keeping the seat warm for a better player.

I watched several of his Senior Bowl practices and never came away impressed with his skills. He's a tall guy who can get downfield. That's about all that he can do. He has poor strength and change of direction skills, severely limited the number of routes that he can run effectively. I never say never in fantasy football because crazy things happen every year, but I'll be very surprised if Alexander ever becomes a fixture in the NFL.

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So where does a guy like current shark pool Danario Alexander slot into the rankings? A unique player/situation...insane measurables/college production vs serious injury concerns...Obviously he was a hell of a specimen before the injury...knee is still a concern but he looked great in his debut game, was given a 4 year contract (indicating the rams have faith in his recovery/abilities). having real trouble knowing how to value the guy

And how about Deion Branch. He is 31 but still, if he is targeted as much as he was this week, in a very solid position, he could be productive for two years more.
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How much of Alexander's production is the result of Sam Bradford's quality and St. Louis's desperation? I'd say a lot. This team has absolutely nothing at WR. Avery and Clayton are injured. Gibson and Robinson are mediocrities. Amendola is lucky to be on a pro roster. Gilyard has potential, but he wasn't an elite prospect and he's still just a rookie. You look at the situation and quickly realize that the reason a guy like Alexander has been able to crack the lineup is because the team simply has no other options. Even the worst WR who's good enough to make an NFL roster probably has enough talent to piece together some decent games when he's being heavily targeted by a clue chip QB who looks like he might be a future Pro Bowl stalwart. The fact that Alexander has stepped in and made a few catches really doesn't tell us much about his long term future.I don't expect St. Louis to stand pat at WR in the offseason. Having made the commitment to build the team around Bradford, I would expect them to surround him with a full complement of viable weapons like the Jets, Giants, Steelers, Lions, Buccaneers, 49ers, Cowboys, Packers, Ravens, and Dolphins have tried to do for their young QBs. Is Alexander good enough to withstand a challenge from the likes of AJ Green or Vincent Jackson? Probably not. He's probably just keeping the seat warm for a better player. I watched several of his Senior Bowl practices and never came away impressed with his skills. He's a tall guy who can get downfield. That's about all that he can do. He has poor strength and change of direction skills, severely limited the number of routes that he can run effectively. I never say never in fantasy football because crazy things happen every year, but I'll be very surprised if Alexander ever becomes a fixture in the NFL.

:confused: I find it hard to believe that Alexander won't be tested with competition both through the draft and FA. And I tend to believe a lot of his success was Bradford.
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You guys are almost certainly right about them bringing someone in...but if Bradford is as good as everybody seems to think (and I find myself in that camp as well), who's to say he couldn't support two startable fantasy WRs? Depending on his play over the rest of the season and Clayton's recovery from his injury I'm not so sure it couldn't be DX + FA Acquisition/Draft pick X (especially if it's a draft pick, which doesn't necessarily guarantee WR1 production out of the gate by any means)

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You guys are almost certainly right about them bringing someone in...but if Bradford is as good as everybody seems to think (and I find myself in that camp as well), who's to say he couldn't support two startable fantasy WRs? Depending on his play over the rest of the season and Clayton's recovery from his injury I'm not so sure it couldn't be DX + FA Acquisition/Draft pick X (especially if it's a draft pick, which doesn't necessarily guarantee WR1 production out of the gate by any means)

He's definitely good to own for now; personally though I would see what I could get in trade for him at some point this season.I did the same thing with Josh Morgan the year before they drafted Crabtree--and I parlayed Morgan into Ochocinco. A great move I think. Edited by az_prof
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So where does a guy like current shark pool Danario Alexander slot into the rankings? A unique player/situation...insane measurables/college production vs serious injury concerns...Obviously he was a hell of a specimen before the injury...knee is still a concern but he looked great in his debut game, was given a 4 year contract (indicating the rams have faith in his recovery/abilities). having real trouble knowing how to value the guy

And how about Deion Branch. He is 31 but still, if he is targeted as much as he was this week, in a very solid position, he could be productive for two years more.
He only had 2 catches before the 4th quarter. He is a major injury risk. He's never had more than 5 TDs in a season.If he's free off waivers and it's a PPR league by all means grab him and put him in your lineup. But otherwise, don't get your hopes up.
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You guys are almost certainly right about them bringing someone in...but if Bradford is as good as everybody seems to think (and I find myself in that camp as well), who's to say he couldn't support two startable fantasy WRs? Depending on his play over the rest of the season and Clayton's recovery from his injury I'm not so sure it couldn't be DX + FA Acquisition/Draft pick X (especially if it's a draft pick, which doesn't necessarily guarantee WR1 production out of the gate by any means)

He's definitely good to own for now; personally though I would see what I could get in trade for him at some point this season.I did the same thing with Josh Morgan the year before they drafted Crabtree--and I parlayed Morgan into Ochocinco. A great move I think.
Indeed re: Morgan. Considering his measurables it's quite possible his college success was a product of being such an unholy mother-of-all-mismatches with college DBs. If you think that is the case AND that he's missing crucial tools to be a successful NFL wideout than obviously moving him is the play. I tend to think though that if I'm the rams and he makes it through this season healthy, I'd love to have him in a poor-man's-VJax role and bring in a Boldin/TO-type possession guy to play alongside him (if in the draft, Julio Jones comes to mind as they likely wouldn't have to burn a 1st)
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to.

What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

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You guys are almost certainly right about them bringing someone in...but if Bradford is as good as everybody seems to think (and I find myself in that camp as well), who's to say he couldn't support two startable fantasy WRs?

IMO the better question is: Who's to say Alexander will be one of those two?The Rams have what is undoubtedly one of the 3-4 worst WR corps in the NFL. Their current starting receivers wouldn't see the field for most NFL teams. Edited by EBF
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to. What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

Casper05Charles isn't exactly a backup. He's more a co-starter so it's extremely difficult to acquire him unless you're talking about a new startup dynasty league. Felix Jones is now the starter in Dallas. LT probably only has one season left after this year so Greene will be the starter soon enough. Maybe Jonathan Stewart is a guy to target since DeAngelo Williams will probably leave Carolina in free agency and Stewart should become the starter.
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Hester stinks. When I read SSOG's unflinching love for him it makes me very scared that I have based other moves on SSOG's opinions. :shrug: lol

I'd like you to point out the one person where you agree with every single thing he thinks.
I think a more important question is what does this say about SSOG's theory about returners being good upside projects at WR. He also is very high on Breaston and Brandon Tate for this reason. It's only one game post-Moss but finger in the air says Brandon Tate is not going to useful anytime soon. Breaston has had good games this year and in the past, but I still question how good he is and think he's benefiting a lot from situation (WR3 with Warner at QB and 2 studs previous years; WR2 beside an injured Fitz this year).Obviously a lot of return superstars from Dante Hall to Hester and Cribbs fail at making the conversion. Obviously skill at the return game only applies to a small subset of what it takes to be a successful receiver, and if you can't run routes and develop timing, you're not going to get very far.
I enjoy SSOG and he knows a heck of a lot, but, this is one claim that I have doubted myself. I am sure that there are some players with crossover skills like Harvin or Steve Smith south, but when I think returners I think Hall and now Hester, Cribbs, I also remember Billy White Shoes Johnson and Desmond Howard. I even think Ginn. Moss, TO, Rice, Carter, none of those guys were primarily returners.
I think it's more of a "WRs who are also great return guys have more upside" thing rather than great return guys have good upside at WR.I'm talking Steve Smith South, Eddie Royal, and Santana Moss type players who played receiver in college and then spent a year, or even longer, in the NFL returning kicks with small receiving duties before going big. Heck, in Royal's case he went big as a receiver right out of the gate. In Moss's and Smith's cases, they are still SO good at returns that they get put back there when the team desperately needs to bring a punt back a long way.Didn't Derrick Mason return too? Or is that total bologna? I think Tate and Breaston are both guys in this mold, whereas Hester was a total conversion project.
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to. What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

The obvious guys for me are Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. I think both of them are the real deal, but you're unlikely to get either for cheap. Fortunately, there are a lot of other rookie WRs to take a flyer on. Golden Tate, Mardy Gilyard, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders, Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, David Gettis, Stephen Williams, etc. You have to figure that one or two of those guys might become legitimate players. I would also lump Brandon Tate into that group since he's basically a rookie for all intents and purposes. Pick your favorite and see if you can get him as a throw-in. At RB there isn't a lot to get excited about. Most of the guys who aren't getting playing time are on the bench for one simple reason: They aren't very good. Jonathan Stewart is the one backup RB that I would pay a lot to acquire, but he won't come cheap. CJ Spiller could be an option if people are giving up on him prematurely. Beyond those two I like Jonathan Dwyer as a long term stash and James Starks as a flyer. You could also make a case for Toby Gerhart, although I see him as more of a backup in the NFL. Montario Hardesty could be interesting if he could ever stay healthy. He's never going to be a superstar though.At TE, I like Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett, and Jimmy Graham to potentially become future NFL starters. Fendi Onobun is a good no-risk flyer. Edited by EBF
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I think a more important question is what does this say about SSOG's theory about returners being good upside projects at WR. He also is very high on Breaston and Brandon Tate for this reason. It's only one game post-Moss but finger in the air says Brandon Tate is not going to useful anytime soon. Breaston has had good games this year and in the past, but I still question how good he is and think he's benefiting a lot from situation (WR3 with Warner at QB and 2 studs previous years; WR2 beside an injured Fitz this year).Obviously a lot of return superstars from Dante Hall to Hester and Cribbs fail at making the conversion. Obviously skill at the return game only applies to a small subset of what it takes to be a successful receiver, and if you can't run routes and develop timing, you're not going to get very far.

I enjoy SSOG and he knows a heck of a lot, but, this is one claim that I have doubted myself. I am sure that there are some players with crossover skills like Harvin or Steve Smith south, but when I think returners I think Hall and now Hester, Cribbs, I also remember Billy White Shoes Johnson and Desmond Howard. I even think Ginn. Moss, TO, Rice, Carter, none of those guys were primarily returners.
I think it's more of a "WRs who are also great return guys have more upside" thing rather than great return guys have good upside at WR.I'm talking Steve Smith South, Eddie Royal, and Santana Moss type players who played receiver in college and then spent a year, or even longer, in the NFL returning kicks with small receiving duties before going big. Heck, in Royal's case he went big as a receiver right out of the gate. In Moss's and Smith's cases, they are still SO good at returns that they get put back there when the team desperately needs to bring a punt back a long way.Didn't Derrick Mason return too? Or is that total bologna? I think Tate and Breaston are both guys in this mold, whereas Hester was a total conversion project.
I'm not really trying to call SSOG out on this, just trying to test if this hypothesis is true now that the Hester experiment is more or less over.Here's what he says on his own site in the Breaston comments

The reason for this is because the skills required to return punts are very similar to the skills required to succeed as a WR- fielding the ball cleanly, dodging the first hit, making something happen in traffic, etc. As a result, I like using some later roster spots on quality punt returners who have a chance to become starting NFL WRs, gambling that something in their skill set will translate on offense.

I guess if you take the angle that it's a worthy gamble, it's valid. Any 6'5" possession receiver is also a worthy gamble, like Danario, but you'll end up with just as many stiffs.I think it's a pointless exercise to use a guy like Santana (was a great receiver in college, drafted in the 1st as a WR) or DeSean or even Royal (top 50 pick) as an example because they had great pedigree at WR but were also good at returns. The question, for me at least, is does it apply to more middling prospects like Breaston - should you reach for the next 5th round return specialist in a rookie draft? Probably not. Is it enough to bump an unproven guy like Tate over Garcon, Britt, Bowe, or any number of "just WRs" he has below Tate as of Monday night? Seems like this is an easy no.
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to. What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

The obvious guys for me are Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. I think both of them are the real deal, but you're unlikely to get either for cheap. Fortunately, there are a lot of other rookie WRs to take a flyer on. Golden Tate, Mardy Gilyard, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders, Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, David Gettis, Stephen Williams, etc. You have to figure that one or two of those guys might become legitimate players. I would also lump Brandon Tate into that group since he's basically a rookie for all intents and purposes. Pick your favorite and see if you can get him as a throw-in. At RB there isn't a lot to get excited about. Most of the guys who aren't getting playing time are on the bench for one simple reason: They aren't very good. Jonathan Stewart is the one backup RB that I would pay a lot to acquire, but he won't come cheap. CJ Spiller could be an option if people are giving up on him prematurely. Beyond those two I like Jonathan Dwyer as a long term stash and James Starks as a flyer. You could also make a case for Toby Gerhart, although I see him as more of a backup in the NFL. Montario Hardesty could be interesting if he could ever stay healthy. He's never going to be a superstar though.At TE, I like Fred Davis, Martellus Bennett, and Jimmy Graham to potentially become future NFL starters. Fendi Onobun is a good no-risk flyer.
Thanks- It seems like there aren't as many STUD stashes as in previous years. TBH I don't really like to stash WRs because in my league they will not be picked up after their rookie season if they haven't done anything so I can get them off the WW right as they break out, which is why I have Greene, Lynch, Torain, Choice, Britt, Collie, Floyd, MSW on my roster. I'm at the point now where my roster is stacked full of great potential and I am just waiting for someone to break out. At the same time, I am trying to find some guys that are completely hidden (like these guys were a year or so ago) that I can pick up off WW if I can manage to pull of a 2 for 1 trade. Enough ACF, what is everybody's take on J Charles now that he is gettin half or more of the carries? Where do you rank him in your RB tier? He is an amazing talent, but will he every the a lead back for the Chiefs?What about Shonn Greene? Surely superman (LT) will be limited after this year so where does Greene rank going forward? I think he is a pretty obvious hold for those of us that have him, but what if we dont? What are you willing to give up to acquire him?Torain looked pretty damn good to me. Can he hold on to the starting spot in the future?
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Regarding Danario Alexander,

I share the injury concerns, but I think dynasty owners are right to be excited here. Alexander is the only receiver on that roster--healthy or injured--with the potential to mature into a prototypical WR1. He has the size and the speed. Mark Clayton is good, but he isn't a WR to build a team around. He is a good second receiver. Gilyard and Amendola are slot options. Robinson and Gibson are trash. Alexander could be "the guy" if he can mature with Bradford and stay healthy. If he isn't, I fully expect the Rams to bring in someone who can be "the guy" within a year or two, because nobody else on that roster fits the bill.

EBF, I find it curious that you are so down on Alexander yet remain high on "Golden Tate, Mardy Gilyard, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders, Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, David Gettis, Stephen Williams, etc." At this point I would take Alexander ahead of any of those guys. Gilyard has failed to see the field despite all of the injuries--what does that tell you? Tate has fallen behind a guy that was out of football. LaFell was so good that the Panthers claimed Devin Thomas off of waivers (I prefer Thomas to LaFell in dynasty). In terms of upside and opportunity, Alexander trumps all of those guys, and in terms of present production, he is clearly superior.

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EBF, I find it curious that you are so down on Alexander yet remain high on "Golden Tate, Mardy Gilyard, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders, Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, David Gettis, Stephen Williams, etc." At this point I would take Alexander ahead of any of those guys. Gilyard has failed to see the field despite all of the injuries--what does that tell you? Tate has fallen behind a guy that was out of football. LaFell was so good that the Panthers claimed Devin Thomas off of waivers (I prefer Thomas to LaFell in dynasty). In terms of upside and opportunity, Alexander trumps all of those guys, and in terms of present production, he is clearly superior.

I don't agree that his upside is higher than the rest of that group. Neither did the 32 NFL teams who all passed on him in a 255 player draft that saw 27 receivers drafted.At risk of sounding like a broken record, I think the knee-jerk impulse to suddenly elevate Alexander above guys who have had stronger portfolios over the past 5+ months is a shining example of the kind of "what have you done for me lately" approach to dynasty leagues that I oppose. He caught 4 passes for 72 yards in one game. So what? He didn't even make the active roster before the season started. The Rams liked him so much that they let him languish on the practice squad, meaning any team in the NFL could've stolen him. No one did. He's only on the field because he happened to sign with one of the most WR-starved teams in the NFL and because three of the players ahead of him on the depth chart happened to get hurt. It took injuries to Donnie Avery, Mark Clayton, and Laurent Robinson just to make Alexander even remotely relevant. He lucked his way onto the field and caught four passes, one of which happened to be a touchdown. That doesn't suddenly make him Randy Moss. I understand why people are optimistic. He's a tall kid who had good stats in college and he doesn't have much short term or apparent long term competition for touches. Why can't he become Sam Bradford's go-to guy? Because, in all likelihood, he's not good enough. He's probably just a guy keeping the seat warm for a desperate team until they find someone better. Laurent Robinson, a player with stronger credentials than Alexander, performed that same task admirably last season by catching 10 passes for 137 yards in the first three games of the season before going down with an injury. A year later no one is talking about Robinson as a guy who should be ranked ahead of Golden Tate and Arrelious Benn. Why? Partially because he doesn't satisfy our myopic "what have you done for me lately" mindset and partially because we realize that a handful of moderately impressive results over a tiny sample size don't tell us anything conclusive about a player's staying power in the NFL. Alexander might end up becoming the next great waiver wire gem or he might end up becoming the next Frisman Jackson. My guess is that it's probably the latter. Why? Because undrafted rookies are major longshots and I don't think we can glean much knowledge from the fact that Alexander has risen up the depth chart in St. Louis considering that he has done so almost by default. 4 catches for 72 yards is a nice debut, but hardly beyond what virtually any NFL WR is capable of on any given Sunday. We're still talking about an undrafted kid who didn't even make the protected 53 man roster and who, by the way, has bum knees. Let's not get carried away just yet. I don't think there's anything wrong with grabbing him off waivers, but be realistic in your expectations. As for the other rookie WRs, I'm not necessarily "high" on those guys. I think they have varying degrees of potential, but what can be said for almost all of them is that an NFL team liked them enough to make a significant investment in their future. The fact that Arrelious Benn and Golden Tate aren't making much noise right now doesn't mean they can't eventually become solid starters. It's not at all uncommon to see eventual superstar WRs fail to impact the box score in their first few seasons. Go back and look at what guys like Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, and Plaxico Burress did in their rookie years. Where you start isn't necessarily where you finish, a relevant point when talking about a Gilyard/Alexander comparison. The fact that one guy is further along in his development doesn't somehow prove that his long term future is superior. Don't get me wrong, it's a good sign, but did you know that David Terrell, Koren Robinson, and Rod Gardner all had more receiving yards in their rookie season than fellow 2001 draftees Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson? Different players peak at different times.Considering all of the adversity that he faced, I actually think Alexander's debut was a nice story. But right now all we've seen is the first sentence in the first chapter of what could end up being anything from a pamphlet to an epic.
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EBF, I find it curious that you are so down on Alexander yet remain high on "Golden Tate, Mardy Gilyard, Arrelious Benn, Andre Roberts, Emmanuel Sanders, Damian Williams, Brandon LaFell, David Gettis, Stephen Williams, etc." At this point I would take Alexander ahead of any of those guys. Gilyard has failed to see the field despite all of the injuries--what does that tell you? Tate has fallen behind a guy that was out of football. LaFell was so good that the Panthers claimed Devin Thomas off of waivers (I prefer Thomas to LaFell in dynasty). In terms of upside and opportunity, Alexander trumps all of those guys, and in terms of present production, he is clearly superior.

I don't agree that his upside is higher than the rest of that group. Neither did the 32 NFL teams who all passed on him in a 255 player draft that saw 27 receivers drafted.At risk of sounding like a broken record, I think the knee-jerk impulse to suddenly elevate Alexander above guys who have had stronger portfolios over the past 5+ months is a shining example of the kind of "what have you done for me lately" approach to dynasty leagues that I oppose. He caught 4 passes for 72 yards in one game. So what? He didn't even make the active roster before the season started. The Rams liked him so much that they let him languish on the practice squad, meaning any team in the NFL could've stolen him. No one did. He's only on the field because he happened to sign with one of the most WR-starved teams in the NFL and because three of the players ahead of him on the depth chart happened to get hurt. It took injuries to Donnie Avery, Mark Clayton, and Laurent Robinson just to make Alexander even remotely relevant. He lucked his way onto the field and caught four passes, one of which happened to be a touchdown. That doesn't suddenly make him Randy Moss. I understand why people are optimistic. He's a tall kid who had good stats in college and he doesn't have much short term or apparent long term competition for touches. Why can't he become Sam Bradford's go-to guy? Because, in all likelihood, he's not good enough. He's probably just a guy keeping the seat warm for a desperate team until they find someone better. Laurent Robinson, a player with stronger credentials than Alexander, performed that same task admirably last season by catching 10 passes for 137 yards in the first three games of the season before going down with an injury. A year later no one is talking about Robinson as a guy who should be ranked ahead of Golden Tate and Arrelious Benn. Why? Partially because he doesn't satisfy our myopic "what have you done for me lately" mindset and partially because we realize that a handful of moderately impressive results over a tiny sample size don't tell us anything conclusive about a player's staying power in the NFL. Alexander might end up becoming the next great waiver wire gem or he might end up becoming the next Frisman Jackson. My guess is that it's probably the latter. Why? Because undrafted rookies are major longshots and I don't think we can glean much knowledge from the fact that Alexander has risen up the depth chart in St. Louis considering that he has done so almost by default. 4 catches for 72 yards is a nice debut, but hardly beyond what virtually any NFL WR is capable of on any given Sunday. We're still talking about an undrafted kid who didn't even make the protected 53 man roster and who, by the way, has bum knees. Let's not get carried away just yet. I don't think there's anything wrong with grabbing him off waivers, but be realistic in your expectations. As for the other rookie WRs, I'm not necessarily "high" on those guys. I think they have varying degrees of potential, but what can be said for almost all of them is that an NFL team liked them enough to make a significant investment in their future. The fact that Arrelious Benn and Golden Tate aren't making much noise right now doesn't mean they can't eventually become solid starters. It's not at all uncommon to see eventual superstar WRs fail to impact the box score in their first few seasons. Go back and look at what guys like Vincent Jackson, Miles Austin, and Plaxico Burress did in their rookie years. Where you start isn't necessarily where you finish, a relevant point when talking about a Gilyard/Alexander comparison. The fact that one guy is further along in his development doesn't somehow prove that his long term future is superior. Don't get me wrong, it's a good sign, but did you know that David Terrell, Koren Robinson, and Rod Gardner all had more receiving yards in their rookie season than fellow 2001 draftees Santana Moss, Reggie Wayne, and Chad Johnson? Different players peak at different times.Considering all of the adversity that he faced, I actually think Alexander's debut was a nice story. But right now all we've seen is the first sentence in the first chapter of what could end up being anything from a pamphlet to an epic.
I'm quoting this mainly for posterity. But for the record, I never said that Golden Tate, Brandon Lafell, Gilyard, or any of those guys are sure-fire busts. It is likely, in fact, that one (or two) will be a quality fantasy contributor--we just don't know which one (or two). All I was arguing is that based on everything we have to analyze--college tape, pro tape, current opportunity, probable future opportunity, draft position, etc.--I would take Alexander over any of those guys in a dynasty league, and it isn't a close call for me.
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So where does a guy like current shark pool Danario Alexander slot into the rankings? A unique player/situation...insane measurables/college production vs serious injury concerns...Obviously he was a hell of a specimen before the injury...knee is still a concern but he looked great in his debut game, was given a 4 year contract (indicating the rams have faith in his recovery/abilities). having real trouble knowing how to value the guy

And how about Deion Branch. He is 31 but still, if he is targeted as much as he was this week, in a very solid position, he could be productive for two years more.
He only had 2 catches before the 4th quarter. He is a major injury risk. He's never had more than 5 TDs in a season.If he's free off waivers and it's a PPR league by all means grab him and put him in your lineup. But otherwise, don't get your hopes up.
Brady was not accurate early which hurt all the receivers. Branch is probably a pretty cheap short term gamble as a third or fourth wide receiver. Likely little up-side but not a bad pick-up at this point of the year with all the injuries. Brady loves the guy which isn't a bad thing.
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How much of Alexander's production is the result of Sam Bradford's quality and St. Louis's desperation? I'd say a lot. You look at the situation and quickly realize that the reason a guy like Alexander has been able to crack the lineup is because the team simply has no other options.

Wasn't Alexander injured, which caused him not to get drafted and then caused him to miss a lot of camp? Maybe it wasn't his lack of talent that prevented him from cracking the lineup but the fact he was recovering from injury.
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to. What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

Not that I know anymore than you. But these are guys I am looking at. I think Choice is a really good guy to invest in now. Barber is on his way out, and Felix has injury concerns. I think he will at least get 6-10 carries a game next season.I think Justin Forsett is another guy with a chance to start (again) soon. Most seem to think Lynch is the guy moving foward. But I don't. Last week was the optimal time to buy, but it might not be too late. Lynch is simply overrated and average. I would grab Mike Tolbert, if he hits the wire, or even send a guy like Jon Dwyer for him. Not that he will ever be the main starter, but he is a good backup, and should get a lot of looks in the redzone. Depending on your roster size, I would pick up Jordan Parmele off of the WW. I think he gets a good shot at being the back up next season. Javon Ringer should be in the Tashard Choice conversation. He is a guy that could get a crack at a starting gig somewhere else. I think he becomes an attractive trade piece, if he continues to perform like he has been. Michael Bush, IF DMC comes back and picks up where he left off. I think Bush is a low end starter in the NFL, but still a starter. Marrian Barber might not be a Cowboy next season. He could get a starting gig, or at least a split, somewhere. He shouldn't cost much and does offer the potential to jump a tier. He has little value this season, outside of a handcuff/bye week emergency guy, so his price is low. I know he looks slow and really, not very good. But so did LT and he is 4 years younger. Most of these guys are WW/low end guys. But players like Greene and Charles are going to cost you an arm and a let, especially in a dynasty format.
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Just moved Harvin plus a mid-grade 2011 first rounder for Brandon Lloyd. My team is primed for a title run, his is rebuilding. I had 3 firsts next season and think this move shores up my receiving corps (start 3WR) of Roddy, Desean, VJax, Santonio, and Mike Thomas and Steve Smith south. I like Lloyd for the remainder of this season, and possibly into next before Demaryus gets the pro game figured out.

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Just moved Harvin plus a mid-grade 2011 first rounder for Brandon Lloyd. My team is primed for a title run, his is rebuilding. I had 3 firsts next season and think this move shores up my receiving corps (start 3WR) of Roddy, Desean, VJax, Santonio, and Mike Thomas and Steve Smith south. I like Lloyd for the remainder of this season, and possibly into next before Demaryus gets the pro game figured out.

Very interesting. Amazing that Lloyd's value has climbed that much, but for whatever reason, he has found a home in Denver. Right now, in that system, Lloyd is legit. But Harvin and a 1st still seems a bit high for Lloyd in a dynasty league. We'll see I guess.
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Just moved Harvin plus a mid-grade 2011 first rounder for Brandon Lloyd. My team is primed for a title run, his is rebuilding. I had 3 firsts next season and think this move shores up my receiving corps (start 3WR) of Roddy, Desean, VJax, Santonio, and Mike Thomas and Steve Smith south. I like Lloyd for the remainder of this season, and possibly into next before Demaryus gets the pro game figured out.

Im not sure of your league specifics, but unless Denever WR's somehow get bonus points, i think you made a mistake.

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Just moved Harvin plus a mid-grade 2011 first rounder for Brandon Lloyd. My team is primed for a title run, his is rebuilding. I had 3 firsts next season and think this move shores up my receiving corps (start 3WR) of Roddy, Desean, VJax, Santonio, and Mike Thomas and Steve Smith south. I like Lloyd for the remainder of this season, and possibly into next before Demaryus gets the pro game figured out.

Very interesting. Amazing that Lloyd's value has climbed that much, but for whatever reason, he has found a home in Denver. Right now, in that system, Lloyd is legit. But Harvin and a 1st still seems a bit high for Lloyd in a dynasty league. We'll see I guess.
I would have to agree. Seems like a whole lot to give up. I would not have done the tradeWO the pick. Including a 1st seems like way too much IMO. Plus, Saber, I think you had 3 WRs worth starting every week, without the trade. Harvin is a great WR3, and Holmes could be very soon too. Plus, Smith has Moore coming back as well. Edited by Concept Coop
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to. What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

I already have Charles and Felix in my top 10 dynasty rankings, but if you can get them at a backup price in your league, i wouldnt hesitate. Shonn Greene wouldnt be a bad #2 to get except he is already pretty old for a guy who has only been in the league for two years. Plus, LT will likely be starting again next year, so by the time Greene gets a chance to start he will only have a few years left. Not to mention alot can happen in two years, will the Jets still have a dominant OLine, will they still be a running team, will the Jets bring in another RB, etc.? A few RB's i would look to acquire would be Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Monatario Hardesty and James Starks. All these guys can be had right now for less than top 20 RB prices and all will have a shot to start at some point. Obviously Lynch is in a different situation than the others as he is the starter now, but his value is only going to go up from this point forward. The other guys wont likely get their shot until next season at the earliest, but they are all still young, and have plenty of upside.
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to. What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

A few RB's i would look to acquire would be Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Monatario Hardesty and James Starks. All these guys can be had right now for less than top 20 RB prices and all will have a shot to start at some point. Obviously Lynch is in a different situation than the others as he is the starter now, but his value is only going to go up from this point forward. The other guys wont likely get their shot until next season at the earliest, but they are all still young, and have plenty of upside.
I like the call on Tate and Starks. They are both low risk, high reward. But I don't know that many Brown owners are going to let him go for less than he is worth. Plus, it is hard to determine what he is actually worth. He has had injury issues both of his seasons in the NFL, and hasn't looked great when he has been on the field. As for Lynch, I think he is a bum. I think he will get you 3.5 YPC and will only put up 100, when he gets 30 carries or so. That is fine, as far as fantasy numbers, when he gets that many carries. But I don't think teams will put up with <4 YPC for long. If he doesn't get behind a great O-line, I think he will quickly be where he was in BUF. Hardesty is a talent. But I am not investing anything in him. He COULD turn out to be Frank Gore, and rebound from the injuries, but I just don't see that happening. I don't know that he will ever be consistantly healthy. I suppose he is worth a roster spot, but I wouldn't trade a draft pick for him.
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The most wide open RB positions right now are TB, NO, NE, and GB. And the sleepers in those backfields right now are Ivory, Woodhead, Blount, and Starks.

Ivory put up great numbers last week but has had fumbling issues too. Pierre's on the last year of his contract, and NO has consistently found cheap RBs to compliment Bush.

Woodhead started last week. And had more carries than BJGE. And has had either a TD or a good reception total the past 3 games. He also has dual eligibility at RB and WR on some sites.

Blount was inactive last week to give Huggins his breakout opportunity, but he ended up breaking his ACL instead. Graham is also dinged now. Blount's lack of pass block skills is going to limit his touches, but he has upside.

I like Coop's call on Tolbert. Guys like Tolbert and Snelling will always be undervalued, but if injuries happen, they'll be startable and deliver near RB1 numbers. McClain is sort of the buyer beware example though. Sometimes FBs go back to being just FBs.

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Torain looked pretty damn good to me. Can he hold on to the starting spot in the future?

Torain is an interesting case. I think he holds the job for a bit, but his liabilities severely limit his upside. Specifically, the guy is God-awfull slow and has limited agility. What he does have is a brutally physical running style that can be very effective in specific situations.His running style is such that I can't see how he could survive as a lead back for more then a season or two. During those couple seasons, he'll be a feast or famine player, running over some defenses while being generally ineffective against other, more physical D's.Great short term value, but if someone is willing to part with high end RB2 value, I'd be selling. He has COP/goal line written all over him.
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Just moved Harvin plus a mid-grade 2011 first rounder for Brandon Lloyd. My team is primed for a title run, his is rebuilding. I had 3 firsts next season and think this move shores up my receiving corps (start 3WR) of Roddy, Desean, VJax, Santonio, and Mike Thomas and Steve Smith south. I like Lloyd for the remainder of this season, and possibly into next before Demaryus gets the pro game figured out.

Like some others have mentioned, I am not a big fan of this move either. I like Harvin more than Lloyd outright, even this season. Call me a skeptic, but I completely and fully expect Lloyd to plummet back to earth with his production, while I think what we have seen out of Harvin over the last 2 weeks will be a good representation of what he will produce moving forward this sesaon (I am a big believer in the fact that Moss will attract enough attention to allow Harvin to thrive). When you add a 1st round pick on top of Harvin, I actually think it is a pretty lopsided trade, with the owner getting Harvin and a 1st as the CLEAR winner.
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I don't know enough to actively contribute to this thread, but I have read every page and love all of your insight...At the very least it has caused me to research players I would have never thought to look in to.

What are some backup guys that you feel will break out next year and bump up a tier or two? Shonn Greene, Jamaal Charles, and Felix Jones all come to mind. What about other RBs or WRs? Choice? Danario? Other current "unknowns"?

A few RB's i would look to acquire would be Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, Ben Tate, Monatario Hardesty and James Starks. All these guys can be had right now for less than top 20 RB prices and all will have a shot to start at some point. Obviously Lynch is in a different situation than the others as he is the starter now, but his value is only going to go up from this point forward. The other guys wont likely get their shot until next season at the earliest, but they are all still young, and have plenty of upside.

I like the call on Tate and Starks. They are both low risk, high reward.

But I don't know that many Brown owners are going to let him go for less than he is worth. Plus, it is hard to determine what he is actually worth. He has had injury issues both of his seasons in the NFL, and hasn't looked great when he has been on the field.

As for Lynch, I think he is a bum. I think he will get you 3.5 YPC and will only put up 100, when he gets 30 carries or so. That is fine, as far as fantasy numbers, when he gets that many carries. But I don't think teams will put up with <4 YPC for long. If he doesn't get behind a great O-line, I think he will quickly be where he was in BUF.

Hardesty is a talent. But I am not investing anything in him. He COULD turn out to be Frank Gore, and rebound from the injuries, but I just don't see that happening. I don't know that he will ever be consistantly healthy. I suppose he is worth a roster spot, but I wouldn't trade a draft pick for him.

He averaged 4+ YPC in his first two years in Buffalo, rushing for 1000 yards in each season. Sure, his 3rd season couldnt have went much worse last year, but between his suspension, and being hurt, not to mention he just wasnt happy in Buffalo, i am willing to give him a mulligan.

Being from Buffalo, i am not a big fan of him as a person, but getting to watch him each week, i cant deny he is deifitely talented. He is only 24 and now that he is happy to be out of Buffalo, i feel confident Lynch will be a top 15 fantasy RB for the next several years.

ETA spelling :moneybag:

Edited by Go deep
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Torain looked pretty damn good to me. Can he hold on to the starting spot in the future?

Torain is an interesting case. I think he holds the job for a bit, but his liabilities severely limit his upside. Specifically, the guy is God-awfull slow and has limited agility. What he does have is a brutally physical running style that can be very effective in specific situations.His running style is such that I can't see how he could survive as a lead back for more then a season or two. During those couple seasons, he'll be a feast or famine player, running over some defenses while being generally ineffective against other, more physical D's.Great short term value, but if someone is willing to part with high end RB2 value, I'd be selling. He has COP/goal line written all over him.
Agree 100%. He is my #1 sell high prospect. He looks awful running the ball. He is slow, lacks vision, and quite frankly, looks dumb. He is not the long term answer in Washington. If you are competing, you might want to hold on to him, if you need him as a RB2. If you are re-building, or have enough RB talent to start without Torrain, I would be moving him right now.
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He averaged 4+ YPC in his first two years in Buffalo, rushing for 1000 yards in each season. Sure, his 3rd season couldnt have went much worse last year, but between his suspension, and being hurt, not to mention he just wasnt happy in Buffalo, i am willing to give him a mulligan. Being from Buffalo, i am not a big fan of him as a person, but getting to watch him each week, i cant deny he is deifitely talented. He is only 24 and now that he is happy to be out of Buffalo, i feel confident Lynch will be a top 15 fantasy RB for the next several years. ETA spelling :goodposting:

Do you think he is more talented than Foster?
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He averaged 4+ YPC in his first two years in Buffalo, rushing for 1000 yards in each season. Sure, his 3rd season couldnt have went much worse last year, but between his suspension, and being hurt, not to mention he just wasnt happy in Buffalo, i am willing to give him a mulligan. Being from Buffalo, i am not a big fan of him as a person, but getting to watch him each week, i cant deny he is deifitely talented. He is only 24 and now that he is happy to be out of Buffalo, i feel confident Lynch will be a top 15 fantasy RB for the next several years. ETA spelling :popcorn:

I would like to agree with you. I really would. But I just don't see it. I see that he is a physical specimen, and I see natural talent. But I don't see it translate on the field. Looking up his numbers, his YPC is higher than I though. It was 3.8 last year, and I thought it was closer to 3.3. I think the right time to buy has come and gone. I don't think he offers you any value, if the other owner thinks he is a starter beyond a year or two.
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Torain looked pretty damn good to me. Can he hold on to the starting spot in the future?

Torain is an interesting case. I think he holds the job for a bit, but his liabilities severely limit his upside. Specifically, the guy is God-awfull slow and has limited agility. What he does have is a brutally physical running style that can be very effective in specific situations.

His running style is such that I can't see how he could survive as a lead back for more then a season or two. During those couple seasons, he'll be a feast or famine player, running over some defenses while being generally ineffective against other, more physical D's.

Great short term value, but if someone is willing to part with high end RB2 value, I'd be selling. He has COP/goal line written all over him.

Agree 100%. He is my #1 sell high prospect. He looks awful running the ball. He is slow, lacks vision, and quite frankly, looks dumb. He is not the long term answer in Washington. If you are competing, you might want to hold on to him, if you need him as a RB2. If you are re-building, or have enough RB talent to start without Torrain, I would be moving him right now.
:popcorn:: I wouldn't hold onto Torain even if he was my only RB2. Shanny is a genius, because he somehow was able to get that turd 100 yards. Sell him before Shanny's next flavor of the week rolls through. Edited by GreatLakesMike
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He averaged 4+ YPC in his first two years in Buffalo, rushing for 1000 yards in each season. Sure, his 3rd season couldnt have went much worse last year, but between his suspension, and being hurt, not to mention he just wasnt happy in Buffalo, i am willing to give him a mulligan. Being from Buffalo, i am not a big fan of him as a person, but getting to watch him each week, i cant deny he is deifitely talented. He is only 24 and now that he is happy to be out of Buffalo, i feel confident Lynch will be a top 15 fantasy RB for the next several years. ETA spelling :goodposting:

Do you think he is more talented than Foster?
Yes
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He averaged 4+ YPC in his first two years in Buffalo, rushing for 1000 yards in each season. Sure, his 3rd season couldnt have went much worse last year, but between his suspension, and being hurt, not to mention he just wasnt happy in Buffalo, i am willing to give him a mulligan. Being from Buffalo, i am not a big fan of him as a person, but getting to watch him each week, i cant deny he is deifitely talented. He is only 24 and now that he is happy to be out of Buffalo, i feel confident Lynch will be a top 15 fantasy RB for the next several years. ETA spelling :shrug:

Do you think he is more talented than Foster?
Yes
Might want to get your "eyeball test" checked. :goodposting:
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