Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Wow. Someone is putting all of his marbles in this year's basket.Someone just traded Tamme for a late 1st and Golden Tate.
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Dynasty Rankings (6 Viewers)
- Thread starter Fear & Loathing
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Does anyone have any thoughts about Finley's injury/infection potentially affecting him long term? I'm considering acquiring him in a dynasty rebuild from a team that needs some other parts for a playoff push. But could go after someone like Hernandez or Dustin Keller for roughly the same price.
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eaglesfan7
Footballguy
Hernandez isn't nearly the player Finley is or will he ever be. He's not a bad tight end but I wouldn't deal Finley unless the offer just blows you away.
sorry I edited my post because my sentence was terrible. I'm looking to potentially add Finley as part of a dreaded rebuild. he's almost everyone's #1 dynasty TE, but haven't seem many opinions about his ranking post-injury. perhaps that means its not a concern in most people's eyes.
I'm not so convinced of this. This is Hernandez's rookie season and he's already looking like one of the premier TEs in the game -- that is rare. If he improves in the coming years he will be right up there. He doesn't have the prototypical size of many stud TEs but the guy is a flat out stud catching the ball. He's a WR playing TE and is a big part of the offense in his rookie season. You can't ask for much more.
Ron_Mexico
I Love Doggies
EBF
Footballguy
I remember Toby Gerhart singling out Sean Witherspoon and Aaron Hernandez prior to the draft as two of the most impressive athletes he had been working out with. He basically said Hernandez had some of the best hands he had ever seen and was routinely making ridiculous catches. It's one thing when a draft guru or pundit sitting behind a computer praises a player, but it's far more meaningful when an actual elite football player is impressed by one of his peers.
Hernandez has been getting a huge number of snaps and has been a pretty reliable performer as a very young rookie. I think his outlook is pretty good considering his talent and situation. Sure, he's not a prototypical every down TE, but neither is Dallas Clark and he has been dynamite in FF. I'll be keeping him in the leagues where I own him unless I get amazing offers, which hasn't happened yet. People have made offers for him, but no one is actually willing to give up anything (surprise surprise).
Hernandez has been getting a huge number of snaps and has been a pretty reliable performer as a very young rookie. I think his outlook is pretty good considering his talent and situation. Sure, he's not a prototypical every down TE, but neither is Dallas Clark and he has been dynamite in FF. I'll be keeping him in the leagues where I own him unless I get amazing offers, which hasn't happened yet. People have made offers for him, but no one is actually willing to give up anything (surprise surprise).
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Tau837
Footballguy
Week 9 update:Rivers - 24.2 ppgRoethlisberger - 17.2 ppg
hilip Rivers- 24.25 ppgBen Roeth- 24.4 ppg
Wow, the Lloyd ranking is a pretty big jump from 39 to 20. He was probably too low at 39, but a tier above guys like Britt and Wallace is surprising. I realize the difference isn't that big, but surprising still.I look at Lloyd and fear he is too big a product of situation. Take away McDaniels' system, Orton as his QB and plug in a new HC next year with Tebow at QB, DThomas one year better and do you think he will still be a big part of their offense? Or do you not see any of that as a threat?
I have watched very little Denver this year and I've seen that you follow them closely.
Fear & Loathing
Footballguy
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Lloyd is 29 and has shown a few flashes in his career, but has never been able to put together a consistent season. I tend to agree with you, he's a flash in the pan and will slowly fade back to obscurity. Right now it's a perfect storm for success. he's playong with a QB on fire, in a system designed to pass heavily, inuries to the only decent RB on the team requiring even more passing and having only mediocre veterans and raw rookies as competition.I'd be happy to ride him out this year, but the No. 20 rank is a bit too high for my taste - I'd sell sell sell at that price. Britt and Wallace are much younger and more talented and will not be losing their jobs anytime soon.Jail said:
corpcow
Footballguy
Yes, as long as you realize that "talent" is more than just speed or physical attributes.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hernandez is special, very special. Aside from maybe Gates, there is no TE in the NFL whose ceiling trumps Hernandez's. You may not find many that think this way, but I would take Hernandez over Finley. Finley now has an injury history.eaglesfan7 said:
Unwrittenlaw
Footballguy
Would you guys give a 2011 late 1st rookie for Aaron Hernandez? Would the Hernandez owner even consider it?
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I don't think a Hernandez owner has much reason to sell for that price. I could see moving him if you have a surplus of TEs. But you can get that price anytime you want.
Pretty strong hyperbole right there.
SSOG
Moderator
You're right, I missed that. Sorry.
Jamaal Charles isn't remotely comparable. First off, he's already topped Felix's career high in carries 9 times. Charles' carries per game have gone from 4.2 to 12.7 to 14.1. Felix's have gone from 5.0 to 8.3 to 9.1. Felix Jones has gotten double digit carries 9 times in his career (only twice this season). Charles has gotten double digit carries in 16 straight games. Second off, I'm not "giving Charles a pass". Charles is ranked 5th in my rankings, but he was a top 12 RB last season, and he's a top 12 RB so far this season. I'm not projecting out and saying "if Charles got a better workload, he could be fantasy relevant!". Charles *IS* fantasy relevant. He gets a boost because of his age and his upside, but even if I was ranking him purely based on the strength of his production, he'd still be top 10. That's not "giving him a pass", that's "valuing guys who are currently producing". Giving someone a pass is when you take a back in his 3rd season who has never ranked higher than RB39 and you rank him in the top 20.Regardless, this whole point wasn't to discuss whether Felix sucks or not, I was just asking what it would take to convince the Felix supporters that he wasn't going to be a workhorse? I know what it would take to convince me that I'm wrong about him- 20+ carries in a couple of games would probably do the trick. What would it take to convince someone on the opposite side of the aisle that they're wrong, though?
First off, I don't think McDaniels is gone any time soon. Pat Bowlen models his ownership style after the Rooneys, who have changed coaches twice in about 50 years. His #1 priority when building his franchise is stability. He's not the type to can a coach after two seasons.Second off, Tebow's not getting plugged in at QB as long as Orton is around and playing like he's playing. Not happening.Third off, Lloyd just looks like a guy who is finally getting it to me. Nobody has ever questioned whether he had the raw talent to be a top 20 WR, the only question has been his consistency and his attitude. I can't speak to his attitude because I'm not in the locker room, but is it really that much of a stretch to think that playing for his 4th team (including one stretch of 3 teams in 3 years) and knowing he's on his last chance might have humbled him? And as for consistency... I'd say he looks to have that all sorted out, wouldn't you? The guy's currently averaging the 10th most yards per game in NFL history (right between Don Hutson and Raymond Berry). And, as I said, he's not the first WR to finally start piecing things together this late in his career. Ed McCaffrey averaged 400 yards per season for his first 7 years before putting up 1050/10, 1000/7, and 1300/9 in years 8, 9, and 10. And he likely would have kept going had a broken leg not cost him all of year 11.Lloyd is slowly making a believer out of me. He just looks good.Jail said:
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
"Yes" and "No" to answer both your questions. Hernandez is worth more than a late 1st rounder where you have to hope to land a rookie that produces like Hernandez has as a rookie. I wouldn't see any incentive for a team to deal Hernandez away at that price - if they are rebuilding (and looking for the pick) why trade away Hernandez?
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
While I wouldn't say he's devoid of talent - I just don't see anything special there. He's of average size (6' 195lbs), pretty average speed, decent route runner and hands - and at times lacks concentration). His best attribute his that he has outstanding body control / athleticism that makes him really tough to defend on sideline patterns. I just see a convulgance of forces coming together to create a perfect scenario for production this year. I'd certianly be content to ride out his production this year, but what happens next year when Demaryius Thomas gets more involved in the offense - a receiver with more talent who would play the same role that Llyod currently fills. Or when/if Moreno stays healthy and the offense becomes a little more balanced and Orton isn't throwing until his arm falls off. I agree that Bowlen is patient, but McDaniels has made some real questionable moves and his record is terrible after his suprising 6-0 start. I'm not totally sold on him sticking around even beyond this year. This is the most one dimensional team in the league. No running game, little defense and average speacial team play - all they do is pass the ball.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Hernandez has a lot of potential. I think his ability, as it applies to catching the football and all that entails, is rare. Better?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
For me, it would require him getting a chance to be a workhorse, and failing. I don't see anything about his game that would prevent him from being able to handle 20 carries - injury history aside.
I think its safe to say that it would probably fall in the category of rare for the bolded to be true. Absolutely possible though. I don't know if we've seen it long enough to say it is probable. Thats why he is a good point of discussion. Just to be clear, I am not picking on your ranking. I've checked out your rankings anytime I contemplate a roster move lately to get your vibe on a player. Just trying to get an idea of what you see to rank him that high as I have not seen enough of him playing this year to be a good judge.
Is it safe to say that your first 2 points weigh heavily into your ranking then? That McDaniels and Orton are there to stay for a while.
If that is the case how do you think you might rank him if you were more skeptical of Bowlen's faith in McDaniels?
Any thoughts on Miles Austin's value with all the changes in DAL happening now? I mean, I know he's valuable, but would anybody trade him for a top10 RB right now and not feel too bad about it? He seemed to be a 1st rounder in a lot of PPR start-ups this season, but I don't think that will be the case next year. Thoughts? Maybe deals you've seen that you thought were fair value for him recently?
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
I know that Austin has really dropped off the map recently. But this seems to be more a function of 1) Dallas' complete collapse, and 2) Dallas' mission to feed the ball to Dez Bryant. I own Bryant, so I am not in any way biased towards Austin. I've been watching these recent Dallas games, and I think that Austin will have a strong rebound next season.
I think Miles Austin's value drops slightly, but only because I am convinced Dez Bryant is the goods and is going to be the 1A on that team to Austin's 1B (where 1A is ever so slightly more of the focal point of the offense, ala the Cardinals with Fitz -vs- Boldin). He is still easily a top 6 WR in my opinion, behind Calvin Fitz, Andre, Dez, and Roddy. Many will now be ranking Nicks ahead of him, but I'm not that sold on Nicks yet.
corpcow
Footballguy
I'm in a couple of non-PPR leagues that combine WR/TE. In most years, this meant that most TEs outside the top 3-5 are pretty worthless, but it seems over the past year or two that's starting to change with a number of WR-playing-TEs.
In these leagues, for whatever reason, people still seem to be ingoring the TEs, so I've snatched up guys like Hernandez, Finley and Keller at/near league min. ($350k, though Finley is now on a 1.7m contract). Gates is also on a $1.7m contract, which is pretty low relative to most elite WRs - and he happens to be WR1 right now. (A first round pick is $2m-3m).
On a talent/ranking basis, how do you rank these kinds of guys when they're interchangeable with WRs? Is Hernadez a special TE, or a special receiver? Who are the kinds of WRs in this format that you would trade Keller, Hernandez or Finley for?
In these leagues, for whatever reason, people still seem to be ingoring the TEs, so I've snatched up guys like Hernandez, Finley and Keller at/near league min. ($350k, though Finley is now on a 1.7m contract). Gates is also on a $1.7m contract, which is pretty low relative to most elite WRs - and he happens to be WR1 right now. (A first round pick is $2m-3m).
On a talent/ranking basis, how do you rank these kinds of guys when they're interchangeable with WRs? Is Hernadez a special TE, or a special receiver? Who are the kinds of WRs in this format that you would trade Keller, Hernandez or Finley for?
corpcow
Footballguy
Bryant is a stud, but I agree - Austin still has shown me a lot and I'm willing to put him up there pretty high in my rankings. That said, what exactly does Nicks need to do to sell you that he belongs in the top tier? He has the pedigree and talent - I haven't seen many WRs ever with the kind of hands he has (behind the back catch anyone?). In his rookie year, he finished as a top 30 WR in 14 games (47/790/6) despite a few injuries (foot, hamstring). Now in 8 games he is WR2 with 51/653/9, and he's clearly a HUGE redzone factor. Don't sleep on Nicks... he is and will be a stud in this league for a long time, IMO - and I've ben saying this awhile back here and in other threads. He was my #1 target in the offseason - I grabbed him in as many leagues as I could.
Before I begin and in the interest of full disclosure, let me say that the Giants are one of the VERY few NFL teams I have not focused much on this season. That being said, when I have watched, Nicks has never really just "wowed" me or blown me away. I don't doubt that he is a good player and I put him on the lower portion of my top 10, but I don't think he quite stacks up to a lot of the players I would put in front of him. Let's break it down:Tier 1
Calvin Johnson
Andre Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Not sure much needs to be said here. These 3 remain the gold standard for me and are heads and shoulders above every other player at the position in terms of physical attributes, skill, and on field production (which Calvin is regaining this season). I simply don't believe Nicks can match the combo these 3 present...nor do I think he is particularly close.
Tier 2
Dez Bryant
Roddy White
Miles Austin
All 3 of these players are only a small step down from the tier 1 players. I can easily see anyone putting any of these players in tier 1 (in my opinion Dez Bryant could easily be included and is the only player with a ceiling as high as Calvin, Andre, and Larry over the length of his career). I simply can't say the same about Nicks right now. I think he's good, I think he has talent, but I wouldn't even consider including him in the same conversation as the "big 3" right now. The simple fact that I would consider including Bryant, White, or Austin in that conversation means that I feel they are a good step above Nicks in terms of value
After those 6 players, it gets a lot tighter and I could easily understand an argument that ranked Nicks at #7 (personally I put DeSean Jackson at #7 and Nicks at #8, but it's not really a big difference). I also would listen to any argument that had Nicks as low as #11 or #12, as I think all the players #7 - #12 are very close. The point is that I think there is a HUGE drop from the tier 2 players to whoever is at #7 and below right now in terms of value. The top 6 players are all almost mortal locks to remain elite players well into the future and have very high floors and have as high or higher ceilings than anyone below them. Nicks has a great opportunity and I definitely agree he has talent, but I believe he has a lower ceiling than the 6 mentioned AND is far less certain, giving him a lower floor, which makes him a much less valuable commodity (since we are talking about relatively young players across the board here).
It is hard to put my finger on exactly why I am not as high on Nicks as many others currently are, and certainly his 1300/18 pace is making me look foolish. I think it comes down to a lack of being truly impressed. Nicks' current season and pace has too much of a fluky feel to me. I never watch him play and come away thinking "my god!" I've commented on this very thing when talking about Arian Foster, but Nicks just has the look and feel of a player who is good, but also benefiting from a very good situation to perform better than he should. He's frequently wide open and simply gaining stats by making somewhat routine plays (while I realize a lot of this is because of things he is doing via route running and setting up defenders, I also can't help but wonder how much of it is pure offensive scheme and the other weapons around him). I would not be shocked if he turned around and had 800 yards and 4 TD's next season. I would be utterly and completely shocked if Calvin, Andre, Fitz, Dez, Roddy, or Austin had a season like that.
That being said, as is usually the case with things like this, I'm sure Nicks will go on to average 1300/12 for the duration of his career, proving that, as alway's, I'm an idiot.
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I own Dez too and like him more than Austin.
I think Dez is the goods too.
I sold Nicks in the offseason in the only league I had him in and obv I regret it immensely. I would take Nicks over Austin if I drafted today for sure.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
Who is a better dynasty prospect in everyone's opinion - Louis Murphy or Danario Alexander?
Hmmm..What type of #'s are we expecting to sustain 2 WR's in the top 6? I know AZ did that in 2008, but they ran for like 1200 total the entire season.
Richard_the_Vampire
Footballguy
Any chance that if Shaun Hill continues to impress for the remainder of the season, the Lions trade him and he starts somewhere next year?
az_prof
Footballguy
Murphy has a higher floor but a lower ceiling; DA is more boom or bust. He has a high ceiling but it seems like a long shot that he will ever reach it.
az_prof
Footballguy
I am starting to agree. Dez, eventhough he is a rookie, appears to produce even with QB and coaching issues. Austin, not so much.
Murphy's healthier and has shown he can play with a decent QB. The only thing Danario has over him is Sam Bradford.
Maybe I'm on my own on this, but I'd take DeSean Jackson over all of those guys, hell, I'd argue he's got a brighter future than Fitzgerald, but I'm not as confident there.ETA: Of course, I've long gotten the feeling that I'm driving the D-Jax bandwagon.
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valhallan
Footballguy
You are.
hostile
Footballguy
I'm a DJax owner in one dynasty, and I was waiting for his comeback to see him. I would take White over him in a heartbeat, and would be willing to throw in something else. I'd also take Dez over him, but I have Miles already, which would be kinda useless.I just dont think DJax is going to have staying power, and as an owner, you have to rely too heavily on him living off of those monster catches. I'm also not a fan of tiny WRs, Marvin being the exception to the rule.
If Vick leaves next year, DJax goes back to being nearly an afterthought with Kolb under center. If Vick stays, then he will have top 10 value, but I would still put him behind all three on that list.
EBF
Footballguy
There aren't many WRs I would trade Dez Bryant for. He's a younger version of a Roddy White or Vincent Jackson. I don't think I would even trade him for Andre Johnson unless I really needed the points this year. Fitzgerald, Calvin, and Marshall are the only guys who seem to have more value. You could also argue Nicks, but I like Dez a little more. There's just nothing to nitpick with his game. He's a Pro Bowl caliber talent with his entire career ahead of him.
I also think Demaryius Thomas has a chance to not only become a top 10 WR, but to push for perennial top 5 status. I can't remember a draft class having two jumbo WRs with this caliber of skills. I guess I liked Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Williams and Michael Crabtree/Hakeem Nicks, but I rate this duo of Bryant/Thomas the best 1-2 punch at WR in the past decade. Maybe I'm projecting a bit too much, but I really think this tandem has a chance to be special. Add in Mike Williams and you already have a pretty great rookie WR class even if all of the other guys bust.
I also think Demaryius Thomas has a chance to not only become a top 10 WR, but to push for perennial top 5 status. I can't remember a draft class having two jumbo WRs with this caliber of skills. I guess I liked Larry Fitzgerald/Reggie Williams and Michael Crabtree/Hakeem Nicks, but I rate this duo of Bryant/Thomas the best 1-2 punch at WR in the past decade. Maybe I'm projecting a bit too much, but I really think this tandem has a chance to be special. Add in Mike Williams and you already have a pretty great rookie WR class even if all of the other guys bust.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What is so funny? He is 5'10" 220+. What makes you think he can't handle 20 carries a game? Please do share.
gotexansgo
Footballguy
considering Stafford is having problems staying healthy I would seriously doubt they trade one of the better backups in the league.
Well Coopy, you are not an NFL coach. The REAL nfl coaches have refused to give him starter carries for years now. So I guess in a nutshell, it would be his injuries and the fact that the coaches won't give him carries and they see him every day. Yeah that is what is funny. I mean I am 6 foot and 225, I haven't ever proven I can't handle workhorse carries. Does that mean I can?What is so funny? He is 5'10" 220+. What makes you think he can't handle 20 carries a game? Please do share.
Richard_the_Vampire
Footballguy
Isn't it possible that without trading Hill, they open the door to a QB controversy?
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Nah. Stafford>>>Hillhill is signed through next season and looks like a good move by the Lions front Office
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Huh. So because the coaches haven't given him 20 carries, they think he can't handle 20 carries? You are ignoring the fact that they use a RBBC. Ideally, no RB will get more than 16 carries. The RBBC concept, and it's implementation, does not mean that those involved are not capable of having a 20 carry/game load. It Just means that they bring different things to the table, and will be more fresh/healthy down the stretch. I am not a coach, but at least I understand that.Well Coopy, you are not an NFL coach. The REAL nfl coaches have refused to give him starter carries for years now. So I guess in a nutshell, it would be his injuries and the fact that the coaches won't give him carries and they see him every day. Yeah that is what is funny. I mean I am 6 foot and 225, I haven't ever proven I can't handle workhorse carries. Does that mean I can?What is so funny? He is 5'10" 220+. What makes you think he can't handle 20 carries a game? Please do share.
Name one NFL RB that was 5'10" 220+ and couldn't handle a 20 carry day.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Marion Barber?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Marion has had a number of 20 carry/games in his career. If you are referring to the fact that he has fallen off, I don't know that your point applies to Felix at all - they have two very different running styles.So again, what does the fact that Marion Barber has fallen off have to do with Felix Jones?
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
The fact that he is 5'10" and 220 and was much more effective in a limited role. Just pulling your chain, mostly. Since it was such a convenient example.
If your question is how many speed backs who bulked up to 220 have then not been able to maintain effectiveness due to workload, then I am not even sure who that applies to. It'd only apply to the post-CJ4.24 world, Coop - there's not much history to work on.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Fair enough, although I wouldn't limit it to speed backs. I would say most backs, even. I am more worried about Ahmad Bradshaw, who gets 20 carry games quite a bit, lasting long term than I am Felix Jones.I just don't understand the logic behind statements like this: "He hasn't had 20 carries yet, so he can't handle the load." Hello! He is the backup/COP cog in a RBBC at the moment, and has been to this point. What do you expect? But the fact remains that his weight suggests that he can carry the load. And until he shows us that he can't, why is it logical to assume he can't?The fact that he is 5'10" and 220 and was much more effective in a limited role. Just pulling your chain, mostly. Since it was such a convenient example.If your question is how many speed backs who bulked up to 220 have then not been able to maintain effectiveness due to workload, then I am not even sure who that applies to. It'd only apply to the post-CJ4.24 world, Coop - there's not much history to work on.
